Sofascore NL Matchday 4: captain picks and best buys

Sofascore Nations League Matchday 4 preview: best buys, captains and differentials

Sofascore Nations League Matchday 4 runs from 4 to 6 October and closes the October window. Matchday 5 is not until 12 November, and Matchday 6 follows straight after it. So this is the last chance to shape a squad that then sits for five weeks and has to carry the final two matchdays of the game. The transfer happens now, but the reason to make it is the run of Matchday 4 → Matchday 5 → Matchday 6, which is everything that is left.

The big news is on the team sheets. Kylian Mbappé is listed as unavailable with a return date of 17 October, so he projects 0.0 this matchday and the model has no projection for him in November either. Michael Olise has France's penalties in the model and leads the whole game on every horizon. Lamine Yamal is the safest hold in the pool. The full numbers are on the Sofascore Nations League player picks page, and last round's analysis is in the Sofascore Nations League Matchday 3 preview.

Matchday 4 programs: whose last three matchdays are worth owning

Switzerland have the best attacking run left in the game: [H]North Macedonia → [A]Slovenia → [H]Scotland is worth 6.84 expected goals and 1.34 expected clean sheets. It starts with the softest fixture they could ask for, an 84% win probability against North Macedonia with 2.99 expected goals and a 54% clean-sheet chance. Slovenia away is the matchday to plan around rather than a reason to stay out, because Scotland at home closes the run.

Albania have the most expected clean sheets of any team at 1.42: [H]San Marino → [H]Finland → [A]Belarus. San Marino at home is the round's standout fixture, with an 88% win probability, 3.09 expected goals (the most of Matchday 4) and a 63% clean-sheet chance. Finland is the harder game, but Belarus away keeps the defensive floor up. Finland themselves are the mirror image: [A]Belarus → [A]Albania → [H]San Marino gives them 6.26 expected goals, and San Marino at home on the final matchday is worth 3.93 on its own.

The Netherlands are the team to sell into. Serbia at home is a 77% win probability, 2.67 expected goals and a 46% clean-sheet chance, which is why Dutch players crowd this round's tables. But the program is [H]Serbia → [H]Greece → [A]Germany, and over the three they drop to 0.90 expected clean sheets. Own the Dutch for Matchday 4 and plan to move most of them on in November.

Sweden ([A]Romania → [H]Bosnia and Herzegovina → [A]Poland, 5.83 expected goals) are an attack-only team: 0.62 expected clean sheets is the lowest of any team in the top ten for goals. Iceland ([A]Estonia → [A]Bulgaria → [H]Luxembourg, 1.04) and Slovakia ([A]Moldova → [H]Faroe Islands → [A]Kazakhstan, 1.12) are the steady runs, with three decent fixtures each rather than one great one. The programs to avoid are Belgium ([A]France → [A]Turkiye → [H]Italy, 3.41 expected goals, 0.54 clean sheets), Croatia ([H]Spain → [A]England → [H]Czechia, 0.73 clean sheets) and Spain at the back ([A]Croatia → [A]Czechia → [H]England, 0.72).

Check the fixture counts before you buy. Gibraltar and Liechtenstein have no Matchday 4 fixture. Malta and Lithuania have no Matchday 5 fixture. Azerbaijan and Andorra have no Matchday 6 fixture. Every other team plays all three. Every kickoff is on the Sofascore Nations League schedule.

The table is sorted by expected goals over the three matchdays; all twelve teams play three times. The 3-matchday clean-sheet column is a count of expected clean sheets, not a percentage. The underlying odds are on the Sofascore Nations League market probabilities page.

Best goalkeepers for Matchday 4

Hákon Rafn Valdimarsson (4.5m, ISL) is the goalkeeper to buy and keep. His program is [A]Estonia → [A]Bulgaria → [H]Luxembourg, his projection rises 5.3 → 5.5 → 5.8 (16.6 over three), and that is the best three-matchday total of any goalkeeper in the game. Only 1.6% of managers own him. Iceland have three winnable fixtures and none that should worry a keeper.

Alen Sherri (4.0m, ALB) is the cheapest route into the best Matchday 4 fixture. He tops the goalkeeper table this round at 5.7, with Albania's 63% clean-sheet chance against San Marino, and his program is [H]San Marino → [H]Finland → [A]Belarus (5.7 → 4.8 → 4.9 (15.4 over three)). The round and the horizon disagree here: Sherri out-scores Valdimarsson this matchday, but Valdimarsson has more over the three. If you are buying one keeper and keeping him to the end, buy Valdimarsson. At 0.3% ownership, Sherri is the pure one-round differential.

Lukas Hradecky (5.4m, FIN) has the late upside: [A]Belarus → [A]Albania → [H]San Marino, 5.1 → 5.0 → 5.9 (16.0 over three). The San Marino game on Matchday 6 is why he finishes second over the three. Diogo Costa (5.9m, POR) is the popular keeper, owned by 16.9%, and he is a fine hold on [H]Norway → [H]Denmark → [A]Wales (5.3 → 5.4 → 4.9 (15.6 over three)). There is no need to spend a transfer moving him.

Best defenders for Matchday 4

Dara O'Shea (5.0m, IRE) is the best defender in the game over the three matchdays, and almost nobody has him at 1.1% ownership. Ireland's program is [H]Israel → [A]Austria → [H]Kosovo, with a 36% clean-sheet chance against Israel, and his projection goes 6.8 → 5.5 → 6.9 (19.2 over three). Austria away is the matchday to accept rather than avoid, because Kosovo at home on Matchday 6 brings him straight back up. He is a buy-and-forget pick.

Trent Alexander-Arnold (6.0m, ENG) is the premium defender whose program holds up: [H]Czechia → [H]Croatia → [A]Spain, 7.2 → 6.5 → 5.2 (18.9 over three). Two home games come first, and England's 40% clean-sheet chance against Czechia is one of the best of the round. Spain away on Matchday 6 is the only soft spot.

Denzel Dumfries (7.0m, NED) has the highest defender projection of Matchday 4 at 8.2, and Virgil van Dijk (7.0m, NED) is close behind at 7.4. Both are one-matchday buys at heart: the Netherlands play [H]Serbia → [H]Greece → [A]Germany, Dumfries goes 8.2 → 5.6 → 4.5 (18.3 over three) and van Dijk 7.4 → 5.8 → 4.8 (18.0 over three). One extremely good fixture can be enough, but be clear that you are buying them for Serbia and that Matchday 5 is the moment to sell again. Jan Paul van Hecke also projects well this round but is not certain to start, so check the Sofascore Nations League predicted lineups before the deadline.

The value defenders with rising programs are the ones to hold through November. Konstantinos Mavropanos (5.6m, GRE) plays [H]Germany → [A]Netherlands → [H]Serbia and climbs 5.4 → 5.9 → 7.2 (18.5 over three), with Serbia at home on the final matchday. Willi Orban (5.5m, HUN) has the same shape on [A]Ukraine → [A]Georgia → [H]Northern Ireland: 5.6 → 5.9 → 6.9 (18.4 over three). Both cost under 6.0m and both are owned by fewer than 3% of managers.

Ardian Ismajli (4.5m, ALB) is the cheapest strong defender of the round at 6.5 against San Marino, on [H]San Marino → [H]Finland → [A]Belarus (6.5 → 4.6 → 4.7 (15.8 over three)). He is a one-matchday pick, and at 4.5m that is a cheap way into the Albania clean sheet. Juho Laehteenmaeki (5.1m, FIN) is the opposite: [A]Belarus → [A]Albania → [H]San Marino, 4.7 → 4.3 → 8.4 (17.4 over three). His Matchday 6 projection of 8.4 is the highest of any player in Matchday 5 or 6, but his Matchday 4 is too ordinary to justify the buy now. He is worth bringing in for November rather than today.

Best midfielders for Matchday 4

Michael Olise (10.0m, FRA) is the best player in the game this round and over the three. His program is [H]Belgium → [A]Italy → [H]Turkiye, his projection goes 9.6 → 7.1 → 7.6 (24.3 over three), and the model gives him France's penalties with Mbappé missing. Belgium at home is France's best fixture of the three, at a 61% win probability. He is owned by 25.1%, so if you do not have him, Matchday 4 is the round to fix that: his lead over everybody else is biggest now.

Lamine Yamal (12.2m, ESP) is the hold. Owned by 43.5%, he projects 7.5 → 7.5 → 7.9 (22.9 over three), the flattest high-end line in the pool. Spain's program, [A]Croatia → [A]Czechia → [H]England, is not special, but his floor does not depend on it. Jude Bellingham (10.6m, ENG) is in the same category on [H]Czechia → [H]Croatia → [A]Spain (7.1 → 7.0 → 6.4 (20.5 over three)). Neither needs selling, and neither is the differentiator.

Here the round and the horizon disagree. Crysencio Summerville (7.5m, NED) projects 7.9 against Serbia, more than any midfielder bar Olise, but his line is 7.9 → 5.4 → 5.4 (18.7 over three). Arda Güler (8.0m, TUR) projects less this matchday on [A]Italy → [H]Belgium → [A]France, yet his line is 6.7 → 6.8 → 5.9 (19.4 over three), so he has more over the three and a far flatter run. If you are buying one mid-priced midfielder and keeping him, buy Güler. Summerville, at 1.6% ownership, is the one-round differential.

Dominik Szoboszlai (8.4m, HUN) is the rising pick: [A]Ukraine → [A]Georgia → [H]Northern Ireland, 6.2 → 6.3 → 6.9 (19.4 over three), and he is Hungary's penalty taker in the model. Kristjan Asllani (7.1m, ALB) is the Albania route, on [H]San Marino → [H]Finland → [A]Belarus (7.4 → 5.5 → 5.4 (18.3 over three)), with a large penalty share and 2.1% ownership. San Marino makes him a strong Matchday 4 pick, and the two games after keep him a decent hold.

Two budget midfielders stand out. Mikkel Damsgaard (5.7m, DEN) plays [A]Wales → [A]Portugal → [H]Norway and projects 6.8 → 5.2 → 5.2 (17.2 over three). Wales away is a 53% win probability for Denmark, and Portugal away is the matchday to accept. Teddy Teuma (4.6m, MAL) is the cheapest high scorer of the round at 7.0 against Andorra, with Malta's penalties, but Malta have no Matchday 5 fixture: [H]Andorra → [A]Gibraltar. He is a Matchday 4 buy with a planned sale before November. Eduard Spertsyan (6.6m, ARM) is the hidden gem for a full hold: [A]Montenegro → [H]Cyprus → [A]Latvia, 5.8 → 6.2 → 5.6 (17.6 over three), at 2.3% ownership and with Armenia's penalties.

Best forwards for Matchday 4

Viktor Gyökeres (8.1m, SWE) is the forward to buy. His program is [A]Romania → [H]Bosnia and Herzegovina → [A]Poland, his projection goes 6.1 → 7.2 → 5.9 (19.2 over three), and he is Sweden's penalty taker. Over the three matchdays he is only 0.2 behind Erling Haaland at 3.4m less, and only 6.3% of managers own him. Bosnia and Herzegovina at home on Matchday 5 is the peak of the run.

Erling Haaland (11.5m, NOR) is a hold for the 38.2% who own him: [A]Portugal → [H]Wales → [A]Denmark, 6.1 → 7.1 → 6.2 (19.4 over three). Portugal away this matchday is the weakest of his three, but Wales at home in November is the reason not to sell. Zeki Amdouni (5.7m, SUI) is the value pick on Switzerland's run, [H]North Macedonia → [A]Slovenia → [H]Scotland (6.4 → 4.7 → 5.4 (16.5 over three)), with the best three-matchday attack in the game behind him. He is not nailed on to start, so treat him as the upside pick and check the lineups.

Mexx Meerdink projects well against Serbia but drops to 3.3 for both November matchdays and is not certain to start, so he is not a pick. Oliver McBurnie (6.0m, SCO) is the cheap November play on [H]Slovenia → [H]North Macedonia → [A]Switzerland (4.3 → 5.8 → 3.5 (13.6 over three)). North Macedonia at home on Matchday 5 is the fixture you would be buying him for, so you can wait a round on this one.

Best captain picks for Matchday 4

Captain Michael Olise (10.0m, FRA), on [H]Belgium → [A]Italy → [H]Turkiye. He projects 9.6, the highest of any player this round, and France against Belgium at home is their best fixture left. That is also the highest single-matchday projection left in the game, so if you still hold the Triple Captain token, this is the strongest case for using it.

The differential captain is Denzel Dumfries (7.0m, NED) at 8.2 ([H]Serbia → [H]Greece → [A]Germany), backed by the Netherlands' 46% clean-sheet chance against Serbia. The safe choice is Lamine Yamal (12.2m, ESP) at 7.5 ([A]Croatia → [A]Czechia → [H]England), owned by 43.5% of managers. Crysencio Summerville (7.9) and Kristjan Asllani (7.4) are the other realistic options.

Plan beyond this round. On Matchday 5 Yamal tops the projections at 7.5, ahead of Gyökeres at 7.2 and Olise at 7.1. On Matchday 6 Yamal (7.9) and Olise (7.6) are again the top two attackers. Owning both covers the captaincy in every remaining matchday, which is the strongest argument for making Olise your Matchday 4 transfer.

Who to sell before Matchday 4

Kylian Mbappé (11.9m, FRA) is the clearest sale, and the round to make it is this one. France play [H]Belgium → [A]Italy → [H]Turkiye, but he is owned by 26.7%, is listed as unavailable until 17 October, and projects 0.0 for Matchday 4. The model has no projection for him in November either. France at home to Belgium is a good fixture, which is exactly why a dead spot there hurts, and his price pays for Olise outright.

Harry Kane (12.0m, ENG) is a sell on price rather than on fixture. England's program is [H]Czechia → [H]Croatia → [A]Spain, and Czechia at home is a decent game and 5.7 is a respectable return. But his line is 5.7 → 5.6 → 4.7 (16.0 over three), while Gyökeres goes 6.1 → 7.2 → 5.9 (19.2 over three) for 3.9m less. The gap is there in all three matchdays, so the swap is worth the most if you make it now and bank Matchday 4 as well.

Unai Simon (6.4m, ESP) and Josko Gvardiol (5.8m, CRO) are the defensive sales. Spain's program is [A]Croatia → [A]Czechia → [H]England and Simon projects 3.1 → 3.2 → 3.4 (9.7 over three), the lowest line of any goalkeeper owned by more than 10% of managers. Croatia's is [H]Spain → [A]England → [H]Czechia and Gvardiol projects 4.0 → 3.4 → 4.6 (12.0 over three). There is no good fixture in either run to wait for, so there is no reason to wait. If you own David Raya, he projects 0.0 behind Simon and should go as well.

Cristiano Ronaldo (10.4m, POR) is owned by 12.9% and projects 4.2 → 4.5 → 3.7 (12.4 over three) on [H]Norway → [H]Denmark → [A]Wales. Norway at home is a fine fixture for Portugal, but Bruno Fernandes (7.0 → 6.7 → 5.9 (19.6 over three)) is the better way to own the same team. Not every sale is urgent, though: Joao Cancelo (6.0m, POR) goes 5.7 → 5.2 → 3.9 (14.8 over three) on the same run, so Matchday 4 and Matchday 5 are both decent. You can wait a round on him and sell before Wales away on Matchday 6.

Best Free Hit (Quick Fix) team for Matchday 4

If you still hold the Quick Fix token, this is the Matchday 4 starting XI that maximises this round alone, in a 4-5-1 with Olise as captain. It respects the three-per-nation limit and fits inside the solver's budget ceiling. Because the token reverts your squad afterwards, it lets you take every Matchday 4 one-rounder above without spending a November transfer on undoing them.

• GK: Alen Sherri (4.0m, ALB, 5.7)
• DEF: Denzel Dumfries (7.0m, NED, 8.2), Jan Paul van Hecke (6.0m, NED, 7.9), Trent Alexander-Arnold (6.0m, ENG, 7.2), Dara O'Shea (5.0m, IRE, 6.8)
• MID: Michael Olise (10.0m, FRA, 9.6), Crysencio Summerville (7.5m, NED, 7.9), Lamine Yamal (12.2m, ESP, 7.5), Kristjan Asllani (7.1m, ALB, 7.4), Teddy Teuma (4.6m, MAL, 7.0)
• FWD: Zeki Amdouni (5.7m, SUI, 6.4)

That XI projects 81.6 before the captain and 91.2 with Olise doubled. Van Hecke and Amdouni carry the most lineup risk, so cover them on the bench. The exact optimum, re-solved live as lineups land, is on the optimal teams for Sofascore Nations League page.

Matchday 4 transfer summary

• Buy and hold: Olise, O'Shea, Valdimarsson, Gyökeres, Güler, Mavropanos, Orban, Spertsyan.
• Matchday 4 one-rounders: Dumfries, van Dijk, Summerville, Sherri, Ismajli, Teuma.
• Sell now: Mbappé, Kane, Unai Simon, Gvardiol, Ronaldo, Raya.
• Sell later: Cancelo before Matchday 6, the Dutch one-rounders before Matchday 5.
• Buy in November: Laehteenmaeki, McBurnie.

More analysis for every round is in our Sofascore Nations League preview hub, and the general strategy articles are in the fantasy guides.

FAQ

Who should I captain in Sofascore Nations League Matchday 4?

Michael Olise is the top captain pick, projecting 9.6 at home to Belgium, the highest of any player. Denzel Dumfries (8.2) is the differential and Lamine Yamal (7.5) is the safe choice.

Should I sell Kylian Mbappé before Sofascore Nations League Matchday 4?

Yes. Mbappé is listed as unavailable until 17 October and projects 0.0 for Matchday 4, with no projection in November either. Selling him now funds Michael Olise, who leads the game over all three remaining matchdays.

Who are the best differentials for Sofascore NL Matchday 4?

Dara O'Shea (1.1% owned) is the best defender over the last three matchdays at 19.2. Hákon Rafn Valdimarsson (1.6%) is the best goalkeeper over the same span, and Viktor Gyökeres (6.3%) is the cheaper alternative to Haaland.

Which teams have the best fixtures for Nations League Matchday 4 to 6?

Switzerland have the best remaining attacking run, [H]North Macedonia → [A]Slovenia → [H]Scotland, worth 6.84 expected goals. Albania have the most expected clean sheets at 1.42, starting with San Marino at home.

Which teams have no fixture in Sofascore Nations League Matchday 4?

Gibraltar and Liechtenstein have no Matchday 4 fixture. Malta and Lithuania miss Matchday 5, and Azerbaijan and Andorra miss Matchday 6.

This preview was written by TheFantasyTool AI.