Sofascore NL Matchday 3: captain picks and best buys
Sofascore Nations League Matchday 3 preview: best buys, captains and differentials
Sofascore Nations League Matchday 3 starts on 1 October, and Matchday 4 follows three days later. After that the international window closes, and Matchday 5 is not until 12 November. So this is a double-header decision: transfers made now have to carry you through two matchdays in six days, then sit untouched for five weeks. The question is not just who scores this week. It is whose Matchday 3 → Matchday 5 program is worth owning.
The biggest problem sits in the most-owned list: Kylian Mbappé is in 32.5% of squads and projects 0.0 in both October matchdays. The biggest opportunities are two strong programs that almost nobody owns: Belarus play San Marino twice, and Switzerland have the best three-matchday clean-sheet outlook in the game. The numbers below come from our model. The full pool is on the Sofascore Nations League player picks page, and last round's picks are in the Sofascore Nations League Matchday 2 preview.
Matchday 3 programs: whose next three matchdays are worth owning
Belarus have the best three-matchday attacking program in the game: [H]San Marino → [H]Finland → [A]San Marino, with 6.37 expected goals across the three. The San Marino home game alone is worth 2.92 expected goals and a 49% clean-sheet chance, the highest expected-goals figure of the round. Finland in the middle is the matchday to plan around. Even so, two San Marino games in three make Belarus the clearest team to target.
Switzerland are the defensive pick. [H]Slovenia → [H]North Macedonia → [A]Slovenia is worth 6.30 expected goals and 1.41 expected clean sheets, the most of any team over the three. Their 50% clean-sheet chance against Slovenia is also the best number of the round. Albania ([A]Finland → [H]San Marino → [H]Finland) and Slovakia ([A]Faroe Islands → [A]Moldova → [H]Faroe Islands) come next at 1.25 and 1.16 expected clean sheets, with Scotland ([A]North Macedonia → [H]Slovenia → [H]North Macedonia) close behind at 1.14.
Among the big nations, Portugal ([A]Denmark → [H]Norway → [H]Denmark) and England ([A]Croatia → [H]Czechia → [H]Croatia) hold up across all three matchdays. Croatia do not: [H]England → [H]Spain → [A]England gives them 0.63 expected clean sheets from three games, and they have no easier fixture until November. Andorra and Lithuania have no Matchday 3 fixture, and Malta have no Matchday 5 fixture. Remember that before buying their players.
| Team | Matchday 3 fixture | Win probability | Expected goals | Clean sheet | Program (MD3 → MD5) | 3-matchday xG | 3-matchday CS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belarus | [H]San Marino | 82% | 2.92 | 49% | [H]San Marino → [H]Finland → [A]San Marino | 6.37 | 1.10 |
| Switzerland | [H]Slovenia | 68% | 2.02 | 50% | [H]Slovenia → [H]North Macedonia → [A]Slovenia | 6.30 | 1.41 |
| Iceland | [H]Bulgaria | 69% | 2.35 | 40% | [H]Bulgaria → [A]Estonia → [A]Bulgaria | 5.81 | 0.97 |
| Scotland | [A]North Macedonia | 45% | 1.58 | 30% | [A]North Macedonia → [H]Slovenia → [H]North Macedonia | 5.41 | 1.14 |
| Albania | [A]Finland | 26% | 0.96 | 27% | [A]Finland → [H]San Marino → [H]Finland | 5.21 | 1.25 |
| Slovakia | [A]Faroe Islands | 45% | 1.41 | 36% | [A]Faroe Islands → [A]Moldova → [H]Faroe Islands | 5.21 | 1.16 |
| England | [A]Croatia | 42% | 1.40 | 32% | [A]Croatia → [H]Czechia → [H]Croatia | 5.12 | 1.15 |
| Portugal | [A]Denmark | 50% | 1.64 | 35% | [A]Denmark → [H]Norway → [H]Denmark | 5.08 | 0.95 |
| Germany | [H]Serbia | 72% | 2.48 | 41% | [H]Serbia → [A]Greece → [A]Serbia | 4.93 | 0.87 |
| Netherlands | [A]Greece | 51% | 1.65 | 35% | [A]Greece → [H]Serbia → [H]Greece | 4.85 | 1.02 |
| Spain | [H]Czechia | 55% | 1.92 | 32% | [H]Czechia → [A]Croatia → [A]Czechia | 4.82 | 0.78 |
| France | [H]Italy | 47% | 1.67 | 29% | [H]Italy → [H]Belgium → [A]Italy | 4.76 | 0.83 |
| Croatia | [H]England | 30% | 1.14 | 25% | [H]England → [H]Spain → [A]England | 3.39 | 0.63 |
| Denmark | [H]Portugal | 23% | 1.05 | 19% | [H]Portugal → [A]Wales → [A]Portugal | 3.25 | 0.56 |
The table is sorted by 3-matchday expected goals. The 3-matchday CS column is expected clean sheets over the three games, not a percentage. The full calendar is on the Sofascore Nations League schedule, and the bookmaker lines behind these numbers are on the market probabilities page.
Best goalkeepers for Matchday 3
Dominik Greif (4.0m, Slovakia) is the keeper to buy and keep. He plays [A]Faroe Islands → [A]Moldova → [H]Faroe Islands and projects 5.4 → 5.4 → 5.7. His 16.5 is the best three-matchday total of any goalkeeper, and the flat line means you can set him and forget him through November. He is 1.8% owned.
Hákon Rafn Valdimarsson (4.5m, Iceland) tops this round at 5.7, with Iceland playing [H]Bulgaria → [A]Estonia → [A]Bulgaria. This is where the round and the horizon disagree slightly. Valdimarsson wins Matchday 3, but Greif is 0.2 ahead over the three and 0.5m cheaper. If you are buying one keeper to keep, buy Greif.
Gregor Kobel (5.5m, Switzerland) has the best clean-sheet chance of the round and is a fine hold for his 11.5% of owners at 5.0 → 5.0 → 4.5. He is not the buy, though. Both keepers above out-project him for less money.
Best defenders for Matchday 3
Nuno Mendes (7.7m, Portugal) is the premium defender and the most-owned one, for good reason. He plays [A]Denmark → [H]Norway → [H]Denmark and projects 7.1 → 6.6 → 7.0, and his 20.7 over three is the highest of any defender. Virgil van Dijk (7.0m, Netherlands) is the alternative at 0.7m less: [A]Greece → [H]Serbia → [H]Greece, projecting 6.8 → 6.8 → 6.0, second at 19.6. His Portugal teammate Ruben Dias (6.5m, Portugal) ([A]Denmark → [H]Norway → [H]Denmark, 6.6 → 6.1 → 6.2) is the cheaper way into the same defence.
Willi Orban (5.5m, Hungary) is the value pick. Hungary play [H]Georgia → [A]Ukraine → [A]Georgia, and he projects 6.8 → 5.9 → 6.2. That is 18.9 over three, level with Dias, at only 2.6% ownership. He then climbs to 7.2 in Matchday 6, so he is a hold, not a rotation.
Dara O'Shea (5.0m, Ireland) is the hidden gem at the back. Ireland play [H]Austria → [H]Israel → [A]Austria, and he projects 6.0 → 7.0 → 5.5. His 18.5 over three is fifth among all defenders, from a 5.0m player owned by 0.5%.
Andrew Robertson (5.5m, Scotland) has the rising line: [A]North Macedonia → [H]Slovenia → [H]North Macedonia, projecting 5.4 → 6.1 → 6.9. Scotland's program is worth 1.14 expected clean sheets, and his best matchday is Matchday 5, so buy him now rather than chase him later. He drops to 3.8 in Matchday 6, away in Switzerland, and that is the sell-again point.
Ivan Tikhomirov (4.0m, Belarus) is the budget route into those two Belarus games against San Marino. He plays [H]San Marino → [H]Finland → [A]San Marino and projects 6.0 → 3.7 → 5.1. Belarus have a 49% clean-sheet chance in Matchday 3. Expect a low score against Finland in between.
Nico Schlotterbeck (6.5m, Germany) tops the round among defenders at 7.3, with Germany at home to Serbia and a 41% clean-sheet chance. His program is [H]Serbia → [A]Greece → [A]Serbia, and his line falls to 7.3 → 5.4 → 5.4. Treat him as a one-matchday buy that turns into an ordinary hold from Matchday 4. He is worth it with a spare transfer, but not worth a points hit.
Best midfielders for Matchday 3
Michael Olise (10.0m, France) is the midfielder to buy. France play [H]Italy → [H]Belgium → [A]Italy, and he projects 8.1 → 8.4 → 6.3. His 22.8 over three is the best of any player in the game. He takes France's penalties in our model, and his 8.4 against Belgium in Matchday 4 is the second-best projection of that matchday. That is why he is a buy now: his two best weeks come in the next six days.
Lamine Yamal (12.1m, Spain) is a hold for his 40.1% of owners. He plays [H]Czechia → [A]Croatia → [A]Czechia and projects 8.2 → 7.2 → 7.0. He tops Matchday 3, but over the three matchdays Olise is 0.4 ahead and 2.1m cheaper. If you own neither and can afford only one, buy Olise.
Jude Bellingham (10.6m, England) is the other premium with a rising line: [A]Croatia → [H]Czechia → [H]Croatia, projecting 7.1 → 7.7 → 7.5. Croatia away is his weakest fixture and still gives 7.1. He is the Matchday 5 captain candidate.
Dominik Szoboszlai (8.4m, Hungary) is the mid-price pick, and he takes Hungary's penalties. He plays [H]Georgia → [A]Ukraine → [A]Georgia and projects 7.6 → 6.6 → 6.7, which is 20.9 over three at 9.5% ownership. He rises again to 7.4 in Matchday 6.
Arda Güler (8.0m, Turkiye) is the flat, durable option: [A]Belgium → [A]Italy → [H]Belgium, projecting 6.8 → 6.6 → 6.5. He is a hold you do not need to think about.
Kristjan Asllani (7.1m, Albania) is the differential with the biggest single-week ceiling. Albania play [A]Finland → [H]San Marino → [H]Finland, and he projects 5.2 → 8.6 → 6.2. His 8.6 against San Marino is the highest projection of Matchday 4, and he is 2.6% owned. Finland away in Matchday 3 is only average, so you can wait a matchday on this one: bring him in for Matchday 4 if transfers are tight this week.
Teddy Teuma (4.6m, Malta) is the budget midfielder. He plays [H]Gibraltar → [H]Andorra → no Matchday 5 fixture and projects 6.7 → 6.5 → 0.0. Malta's two home games, against Gibraltar and Andorra, make him a clean two-matchday buy. Malta have no Matchday 5 fixture, so move him on during the November window. Dodi Lukebakio (5.5m, Belgium) is the budget hold: [H]Turkiye → [A]France → [A]Turkiye, projecting 5.8 → 5.5 → 5.4, at 2.3% ownership.
Best forwards for Matchday 3
Erling Haaland (11.5m, Norway) remains the forward to own. He plays [A]Wales → [A]Portugal → [H]Wales and projects 7.2 → 6.2 → 7.0. His 0.73 expected goals against Wales is the highest of any player this round, and he takes Norway's penalties. Portugal away is the dip, and Wales at home in Matchday 5 is the rebound. Harry Kane (12.0m) projects 4.7 → 5.4 → 5.3, so Haaland out-projects him in all three matchdays despite costing less.
Irvin Cardona (5.5m, Malta) is the budget forward, and the Malta logic applies again: [H]Gibraltar → [H]Andorra → no Matchday 5 fixture, projecting 6.8 → 6.5 → 0.0. He is second only to Haaland among forwards this round, at 0.5% ownership. Sell him again before Matchday 5.
Zeki Amdouni (5.7m, Switzerland) is the Switzerland differential: [H]Slovenia → [H]North Macedonia → [A]Slovenia, projecting 5.1 → 7.1 → 4.7. His 16.9 over three is second among forwards, and his peak is 7.1 against North Macedonia in Matchday 4. The risk is minutes, because he is not a certain starter. Viktor Gyökeres (8.1m, Sweden) is the buy-later pick: [A]Bosnia and Herzegovina → [A]Romania → [H]Bosnia and Herzegovina, projecting 4.4 → 5.4 → 6.6. His best fixture is Matchday 5, so there is no need to buy him before the November window.
Best captain picks for Matchday 3
Lamine Yamal (12.1m, Spain) is the Matchday 3 captain at 8.2 xP, at home to Czechia, and Spain's [H]Czechia → [A]Croatia → [A]Czechia keeps him a captain option in the next two as well. Michael Olise is a near-identical second at 8.1 against Italy. Dominik Szoboszlai is third at 7.6 against Georgia, with Erling Haaland (7.2) close behind.
Plan beyond this round. Olise is the Matchday 4 captain at 8.4 against Belgium, which makes him the premium to hold if you want one player who captains well in both October matchdays. Bellingham leads Matchday 5 at 7.5 against Croatia. The captain's score doubles, so every gap between these options counts twice.
Who to sell before Matchday 3
Kylian Mbappé (11.9m, France) is the clearest sell, and this round is the time to make it. 32.5% of managers own him. He is listed as unavailable with a return date of 17 October and projects 0.0 in both Matchday 3 and Matchday 4. France's program is [H]Italy → [H]Belgium → [A]Italy, but he only returns to the projections at 2.7 in November. Holding him costs two full matchdays, and moving him straight to Olise saves 1.9m.
Pau Cubarsi (7.0m, Spain) is a sell into a decent fixture, with 17.1% ownership. Spain play [H]Czechia → [A]Croatia → [A]Czechia. Czechia at home is a perfectly fine matchday, and Spain have a 32% clean-sheet chance. But two away games follow, and his line falls to 5.2 → 4.2 → 3.8. Orban already out-projects him this round, 6.8 against 5.2, for 1.5m less. Selling now costs you nothing. Waiting a matchday only puts you on the wrong side of the drop.
Josko Gvardiol (5.9m, Croatia) is 16.5% owned and projects 4.6 → 4.6 → 3.8. Croatia's [H]England → [H]Spain → [A]England contains no good matchday before November, so there is no better week to sell into. Waiting only costs points.
Cristiano Ronaldo (10.4m, Portugal) is 14.3% owned. Portugal's [A]Denmark → [H]Norway → [H]Denmark is a good program, but his projection stays flat at 4.0 → 3.9 → 4.5, and nothing in the window lifts him. His teammate Rafael Leao projects more for 2.9m less. The money does more for you now, when Olise's two best matchdays begin.
Unai Simon (6.4m, Spain) plays [H]Czechia → [A]Croatia → [A]Czechia and projects 3.4 → 3.1 → 3.0, below every keeper recommended above. David Raya (8.3% owned) projects 0.0 across all three, because our model has him as Spain's backup. A move to Greif fixes both for less money.
Best Quick Fix (Free Hit) team for Matchday 3
Sofascore's one-round Quick Fix chip is available. For it, this 4-4-2 is the highest-projected Matchday 3 squad in our model, within the solver's price ceiling and the three-per-nation limit:
- GK: Hákon Rafn Valdimarsson (4.5m, Iceland) – 5.7 xP
- DEF: Nico Schlotterbeck (6.5m, Germany) – 7.3 xP
- DEF: Nuno Mendes (7.7m, Portugal) – 7.1 xP
- DEF: Willi Orban (5.5m, Hungary) – 6.8 xP
- DEF: Jan Paul van Hecke (6.0m, Netherlands) – 6.9 xP
- MID: Lamine Yamal (12.1m, Spain) – 8.2 xP (captain)
- MID: Michael Olise (10.0m, France) – 8.1 xP
- MID: Dominik Szoboszlai (8.4m, Hungary) – 7.6 xP
- MID: Teddy Teuma (4.6m, Malta) – 6.7 xP
- FWD: Erling Haaland (11.5m, Norway) – 7.2 xP
- FWD: Irvin Cardona (5.5m, Malta) – 6.8 xP
Bench: Dominik Greif (4.0m), Tellur Mutallimov (4.0m), Joey Veerman (5.0m), Adrian Svanbäck (4.7m). The starting XI projects 86.6, with the captain counted twice. This competition gives you one Quick Fix, and Matchday 4 comes three days later, so weigh it against the later matchdays before using it now. The exact optimum updates live on the Sofascore Nations League optimal teams page.
Matchday 3 transfer summary
In: Olise, Greif and Orban, plus a Malta pick (Teuma or Cardona) for two matchdays. Out: Kylian Mbappé, Pau Cubarsi and Josko Gvardiol. Differentials: Dara O'Shea, Kristjan Asllani from Matchday 4, and Zeki Amdouni. Check the Sofascore Nations League predicted lineups before the 1 October deadline, especially for rotation risks like Amdouni. Every earlier matchday is in our Sofascore Nations League preview hub, and general strategy is in the guides.
FAQ
Who should I captain in Sofascore Nations League Matchday 3?
Lamine Yamal is the top captain at 8.2 xP, at home to Czechia, just ahead of Michael Olise at 8.1 against Italy. Dominik Szoboszlai (7.6) is the third option. Olise is the better captain for Matchday 4, at 8.4 against Belgium.
Should I sell Mbappé before Sofascore Nations League Matchday 3?
Yes. Kylian Mbappé is listed as unavailable until 17 October and projects 0.0 in both Matchday 3 and Matchday 4, so holding him costs two matchdays. Olise is the natural replacement: 1.9m cheaper, with 22.8 projected over the next three.
Best differentials for Sofascore Nations League Matchday 3?
Dara O'Shea (0.5% owned) projects 18.5 over the next three matchdays, and Willi Orban (2.6%) projects 18.9. Kristjan Asllani (2.6%) has the top Matchday 4 projection, 8.6 against San Marino.
Which budget defenders are best for Sofascore Nations League Matchday 3?
Ivan Tikhomirov (4.0m, Belarus) projects 6.0 against San Marino and faces them again in Matchday 5. Dara O'Shea (5.0m, Ireland) projects 6.0 → 7.0 → 5.5 across the next three.
Which teams have no fixture in Sofascore Nations League Matchday 3?
Andorra and Lithuania have no Matchday 3 fixture. Malta play twice in October, at home to Gibraltar and Andorra, and then have no Matchday 5 fixture.
This preview was written by TheFantasyTool AI.