Sofascore NL Matchday 3: captain picks and best buys

Sofascore Nations League Matchday 3 preview: best buys, captains and differentials

Sofascore Nations League Matchday 3 kicks off on 1 October, and Matchday 4 follows from 4 October. After that the international window closes and Matchday 5 is not until 12 November. So every transfer made now has to carry two matchdays in six days and then sit for five weeks. The question is not only who scores this week. It is whose Matchday 3 → Matchday 5 program is worth owning.

What has changed since the last update: predicted lineups for the first Matchday 3 games are in, and they move several popular players. Germany's Nico Schlotterbeck, Jonathan Tah and Joshua Kimmich are all out of our projected XI against Serbia, while Florian Wirtz and Ridle Baku are in. Cristiano Ronaldo is down to 19 expected minutes, and David Raya projects 0.0 behind Unai Simon. At the top, Lamine Yamal has climbed to 11.0, and he and Michael Olise are now level over three matchdays. The full pool is on the Sofascore Nations League player picks page, and last round's picks are in the Sofascore Nations League Matchday 2 preview.

Matchday 3 programs: whose next three matchdays are worth owning

Switzerland have the best three-matchday run in the game on both counts: [H]Slovenia → [H]North Macedonia → [A]Slovenia is worth 6.52 expected goals and 1.46 expected clean sheets. Two games against Slovenia are the reason, and the North Macedonia home game in between keeps the run going. This is the program to own at the back and in attack, as long as the players start.

Belarus are second on attack at 6.43 expected goals: [H]San Marino → [H]Finland → [A]San Marino. The San Marino home game alone is worth 3.04 expected goals with a 58% clean-sheet chance. Finland in the middle is the matchday to plan around, not a reason to stay away, because San Marino come round again in November. Belarus remain the clearest budget team to target.

Spain have the round's standout fixture. At home to Czechia they project 3.32 expected goals, the most of Matchday 3, a 90% win probability and a 63% clean-sheet chance. But the program is [H]Czechia → [A]Croatia → [A]Czechia, and the two away games pull them down to 1.07 expected clean sheets over the three. Spain are a team to own for their attackers and to sell into for their defenders. Germany are the same shape: [H]Serbia → [A]Greece → [A]Serbia, with 2.96 expected goals against Serbia and a lot less after it.

On defence, Azerbaijan ([H]Liechtenstein → [H]Lithuania → [A]Liechtenstein, 1.31), Albania ([A]Finland → [H]San Marino → [H]Finland, 1.30) and Slovakia ([A]Faroe Islands → [A]Moldova → [H]Faroe Islands, 1.29) follow Switzerland. Azerbaijan have no Matchday 6 fixture, so treat them as a three-matchday team. Croatia are the program to avoid: [H]England → [H]Spain → [A]England gives them 0.59 expected clean sheets from three games, and none of the three is easy.

Check the fixture counts before you buy. Andorra and Lithuania have no Matchday 3 fixture. Liechtenstein and Gibraltar have no Matchday 4 fixture. Malta and Lithuania have no Matchday 5 fixture, which is why Malta sit low in the table on only two games.

The table is sorted by 3-matchday expected goals. The 3-matchday CS column counts expected clean sheets over the three games, so it is not a percentage. The full calendar is on the Sofascore Nations League schedule, and the bookmaker lines behind these numbers are on the market probabilities page.

Best goalkeepers for Matchday 3

Dominik Greif (4.0m, Slovakia) is still the keeper to buy and keep. He plays [A]Faroe Islands → [A]Moldova → [H]Faroe Islands and projects 6.0 → 5.4 → 5.7. His 17.1 tops the three-matchday list, he is one of the cheapest keepers in the pool, and only 1.7% own him. The line barely moves, so you can set him and leave him until November.

Hákon Rafn Valdimarsson (4.5m, Iceland) matches Greif's 6.0 this round from Iceland's [H]Bulgaria → [A]Estonia → [A]Bulgaria, projecting 6.0 → 5.3 → 5.4 for 16.7. Caoimhin Kelleher (5.0m, Ireland) is the differential: Ireland play [H]Austria → [H]Israel → [A]Austria, and his 5.1 → 5.5 → 4.8 line peaks at home to Israel in Matchday 4, at 3.0% ownership.

Diogo Costa (16.9% owned) is a fine hold at 15.8 over three. The keepers to move on from are in the sell section.

Best defenders for Matchday 3

Denzel Dumfries (7.0m, Netherlands) is the premium defender to buy. The Netherlands play [A]Greece → [H]Serbia → [H]Greece, and he projects 6.4 → 8.2 → 5.3. His 19.9 over three is the best of any defender, and his 8.2 against Serbia is the second-best projection of Matchday 4 at any position. He is 4.4% owned. Virgil van Dijk (7.0m, Netherlands) is the partner in the same defence, on the same [A]Greece → [H]Serbia → [H]Greece, at 6.2 → 7.3 → 6.0, or 19.5 over three, and he is the Netherlands' main penalty taker in our model. Both suit a Dutch double-up, with the Serbia home game as the shared peak.

Trent Alexander-Arnold (6.0m, England) is the new name near the top, and the best value of the premium defenders. England play [A]Croatia → [H]Czechia → [H]Croatia, and he projects 6.9 → 6.6 → 6.1, or 19.6 over three, only 0.3 behind Dumfries for 1.0m less. Croatia away is his weakest fixture and still gives 6.9. He is a hold you do not need to think about until November.

Willi Orban (5.5m, Hungary) is the value pick. Hungary play [H]Georgia → [A]Ukraine → [A]Georgia, and he projects 6.6 → 5.7 → 6.0 for 18.3, ahead of Ruben Dias for 1.0m less. He then rises to 6.9 in Matchday 6, so he is a hold, not a rotation. Ruben Dias (6.5m, Portugal) is the steady Portugal option on [A]Denmark → [H]Norway → [H]Denmark, projecting 6.0 → 5.9 → 5.9.

Dara O'Shea (5.0m, Ireland) is the hidden gem at the back. Ireland play [H]Austria → [H]Israel → [A]Austria, and he projects 6.0 → 6.8 → 5.5, with 6.8 to follow in Matchday 6. That is 18.3 over three, level with Orban, from a player owned by 1.1%. Dion Gallapeni (4.5m, Kosovo) is the cheaper differential: Kosovo play [A]Israel → [H]Austria → [H]Israel and his line rises to 6.0 in Matchday 5, for 16.2 at 0.4%.

Zakhar Volkov (5.0m, Belarus) and Ivan Tikhomirov (4.0m, Belarus) are the budget way into the Belarus program: [H]San Marino → [H]Finland → [A]San Marino. Volkov projects 7.1 → 4.3 → 5.8 and Tikhomirov 6.4 → 3.6 → 5.0. Expect a low score against Finland in between, then San Marino again. Konstantinos Mavropanos (5.6m, Greece) is the slow burner: Greece play [H]Netherlands → [H]Germany → [A]Netherlands and his line runs 5.6 → 5.7 → 5.9 → 7.2 through Matchday 6, so he suits a manager planning past November.

Ridle Baku (4.5m, Germany) is the one-matchday defender. He is in our projected Germany XI against Serbia and projects 7.1, but Germany's [H]Serbia → [A]Greece → [A]Serbia turns after it and his line falls 7.1 → 4.2 → 2.0. He is cheap, so a rotation in and out after Matchday 4 is fine; just do not plan to keep him.

Best midfielders for Matchday 3

Michael Olise (10.0m, France) is the midfielder to buy. France play [H]Italy → [H]Belgium → [A]Italy, and he projects 10.0 → 8.6 → 6.9. His 25.5 over three is the best of any player in the game, his 8.6 against Belgium is the top projection of Matchday 4, and he is France's penalty taker in our model, with 0.55 expected goals and 0.44 expected assists against Italy. That is the why-now: his two best weeks come in the next six days.

Lamine Yamal (12.2m, Spain) tops Matchday 3 at 11.0, the highest projection of the round, from Spain's home game against Czechia, where our model gives him 0.74 expected goals and 0.31 expected assists. His program is [H]Czechia → [A]Croatia → [A]Czechia, and his line runs 11.0 → 7.3 → 7.1. The round and the horizon now say almost the same thing: Yamal wins this week by 1.0, Olise wins Matchday 4 by 1.3, and over the three they finish level at 25.5 and 25.4. Olise is 2.2m cheaper. If you own neither and can afford only one, buy Olise. If you already own Yamal, as 43.5% of managers do, keep him.

Jude Bellingham (10.6m, England) is the flat premium: [A]Croatia → [H]Czechia → [H]Croatia, projecting 6.9 → 6.9 → 6.7. He is a hold you do not need to think about. Bruno Fernandes (9.9m, Portugal) is the premium differential at 2.3% ownership. He takes Portugal's penalties in our model, plays [A]Denmark → [H]Norway → [H]Denmark and projects 6.7 → 6.9 → 6.9, level with Bellingham at 20.5 for 0.7m less.

Arda Güler (8.0m, Turkiye) has the rising line: Turkiye play [A]Belgium → [A]Italy → [H]Belgium, and he projects 6.2 → 6.4 → 7.5. His 7.5 is the top projection of Matchday 5, so buy him now rather than chase him in November. Dominik Szoboszlai (8.4m, Hungary) sits just behind on 19.6 as Hungary's penalty taker, on [H]Georgia → [A]Ukraine → [A]Georgia (7.1 → 6.2 → 6.3), and climbs to 7.0 in Matchday 6.

Gustav Isaksen (7.0m, Denmark) is the hidden gem of the midfield. Denmark play [H]Portugal → [A]Wales → [A]Portugal, he projects 5.9 → 6.6 → 5.7 for 18.2 over three, and almost nobody owns him at 0.1%. Eduard Spertsyan (6.6m, Armenia) is the other: Armenia play [A]Cyprus → [A]Montenegro → [H]Cyprus, and he projects 5.8 → 6.0 → 6.3, rising each week. He takes Armenia's penalties in our model and is 2.3% owned.

Kristjan Asllani (7.1m, Albania) is the differential with the biggest single-week ceiling, and a penalty taker. Albania play [A]Finland → [H]San Marino → [H]Finland, and he projects 5.0 → 7.8 → 5.8. His 7.8 against San Marino is the third-best projection of Matchday 4. Finland away first is only average, so you can wait a matchday on this one and bring him in for Matchday 4. Crysencio Summerville (7.5m, Netherlands) rides the same Dutch program as Dumfries, [A]Greece → [H]Serbia → [H]Greece, at 5.9 → 7.0 → 5.3 and 1.6% ownership.

Dodi Lukebakio (5.5m, Belgium) is the budget midfielder. Belgium play [H]Turkiye → [A]France → [A]Turkiye, and he projects 6.6 → 5.1 → 5.0, or 16.7 over three. Turkiye at home is his best week, and he holds up in the France game better than the price suggests. Joey Veerman (5.0m, Netherlands) is the Dutch budget option on [A]Greece → [H]Serbia → [H]Greece, at 5.8 → 6.3 → 4.3, peaking against Serbia in Matchday 4.

Florian Wirtz (8.0m, Germany) is the one-matchday midfielder on [H]Serbia → [A]Greece → [A]Serbia. With Kimmich out of our projected XI, Wirtz is in and takes Germany's penalties, which puts him at 7.5 against Serbia, the joint third-best projection of the round. But the program turns after Serbia and his line falls 7.5 → 5.0 → 4.0. Buy him only with a spare transfer, and plan to sell again after Matchday 4.

Best forwards for Matchday 3

Erling Haaland (11.5m, Norway) is still the forward to own over three matchdays. Norway play [A]Wales → [A]Portugal → [H]Wales, and he projects 6.9 → 4.8 → 5.8. His 17.5 tops the forwards, and he takes Norway's penalties. Portugal away is the dip; Wales at home in Matchday 5 is the rebound. Hold him, but he is not a top-three captain this round.

Ousmane Dembélé (10.0m, France) is the other premium forward: [H]Italy → [H]Belgium → [A]Italy, projecting 6.6 → 5.7 → 4.5, or 16.8 over three. His two best weeks are the October pair, which makes him the forward partner for Olise's run. Mikel Oyarzabal (8.5m, Spain) is a one-matchday buy: he projects 6.4 against Czechia, then 4.0 and 3.8 on [H]Czechia → [A]Croatia → [A]Czechia. Only buy him with a spare transfer.

The budget forward slot is thin this round. Zeki Amdouni (5.7m, Switzerland) has the Switzerland program, [H]Slovenia → [H]North Macedonia → [A]Slovenia, and projects 5.5 → 6.4 → 4.7, third among forwards over three, but our lineups have him at only 59 expected minutes, so the risk is starts. Oliver McBurnie (6.0m, Scotland) is the steadier cheap option on Scotland's [A]North Macedonia → [H]Slovenia → [H]North Macedonia, at 4.5 → 4.3 → 5.8, with North Macedonia at home in Matchday 5 as his peak. Viktor Gyökeres (8.1m, Sweden) is the buy-later pick: [A]Bosnia and Herzegovina → [A]Romania → [H]Bosnia and Herzegovina, projecting 4.7 → 4.9 → 6.0. His best fixture is Matchday 5, so there is no need to own him before Matchday 4.

Best captain picks for Matchday 3

Lamine Yamal (12.2m, Spain) is the Matchday 3 captain at 11.0 xP, on [H]Czechia → [A]Croatia → [A]Czechia. Spain are at home to Czechia with 3.32 expected goals, the best team figure of the round. Michael Olise (10.0m, France) is the clear second at 10.0 on [H]Italy → [H]Belgium → [A]Italy, and the safer pick on minutes: our lineups have Olise at 82 expected minutes and Yamal at 79. After those two there is a big gap. Florian Wirtz and Pau Cubarsi project 7.5, then Martin Ødegaard at 7.3 and Dominik Szoboszlai at 7.1. Spain play on the round's final evening, 3 October, so check the Sofascore Nations League predicted lineups before you lock the armband.

Plan beyond this round. Olise leads Matchday 4 at 8.6 against Belgium, ahead of Dumfries (8.2) and Asllani (7.8). In Matchday 5, Arda Güler (7.5), Yamal (7.1) and Olise (6.9) are the top three. The captain's score doubles, so owning Olise gives you the second-best captain this round and the best one next round. That is the strongest reason to buy him over any other premium.

Who to sell before Matchday 3

Kylian Mbappé (11.9m, France) is still the clearest sell, and this round is the time to make it: France's [H]Italy → [H]Belgium → [A]Italy does not matter while he is out. 26.7% of managers own him. He is listed as unavailable with a return date of 17 October and projects 0.0 in Matchday 3, Matchday 4 and Matchday 5. Moving him straight to Olise saves 1.9m and gains the best three-matchday player in the game.

Cristiano Ronaldo (10.4m, Portugal) is the new urgent sell, on a good Portugal program of [A]Denmark → [H]Norway → [H]Denmark. 12.9% own him, and our lineups now have him at only 19 expected minutes at Denmark. But his line is 0.9 → 2.0 → 2.8, while Bruno Fernandes in the same attack projects 20.5 over three for 0.5m less. The why-now: the minutes change here, not later.

Jonathan Tah (6.0m, Germany), Joshua Kimmich (7.0m, Germany) and Nico Schlotterbeck (6.5m, Germany) are the Germany sells. Germany's [H]Serbia → [A]Greece → [A]Serbia starts with the best home fixture they have, so this is not about the opponent. All three are out of our projected XI against Serbia: Tah projects 0.4 → 1.7 → 2.2, Kimmich 0.7 → 3.3 → 4.1, and Schlotterbeck 0.0 in both October matchdays. With 8.4%, 7.4% and 5.0% ownership, that is a lot of dead spots. Sell before the Serbia game, because the October pair is the whole window.

David Raya (5.9m, Spain) (8.0% owned) projects 0.0 on Spain's [H]Czechia → [A]Croatia → [A]Czechia this round and in the next two, because our lineups have Unai Simon in goal for Spain. There is no week to wait for. Pau Cubarsi (7.0m, Spain) is the opposite case, a sell into a good fixture before [H]Czechia → [A]Croatia → [A]Czechia turns. 16.9% own him, Spain at home to Czechia is a very good week for a defender, and 7.5 is a strong score. But the two away games follow, and his line drops 7.5 → 4.4 → 4.0. The choice is selling into a good score now or selling out of a poor one a few days later. Marc Cucurella (9.8% owned) is the same case at 7.0 → 3.9 → 3.8.

Josko Gvardiol (5.8m, Croatia) is 15.8% owned and projects 3.6 → 4.1 → 3.5. Croatia's [H]England → [H]Spain → [A]England holds no good matchday before November, so there is no better week to sell into. Dominik Livakovic (8.7% owned, 3.0 → 3.3 → 3.1) is the keeper version. Gianluigi Donnarumma (6.0m, Italy) (13.3% owned) is close behind: Italy's [A]France → [H]Turkiye → [H]France starts with his worst week at 3.3, and Greif out-projects him in every one of the three for 2.0m less.

Two you can wait a round on. Harry Kane (16.2% owned) is not a bad hold: England's [A]Croatia → [H]Czechia → [H]Croatia is decent and his line is flat at 5.3 → 5.2 → 5.1. Sell him only if the money funds Olise now. Joao Cancelo (16.8% owned) projects 5.7 → 5.3 → 4.7 → 3.6 through Matchday 6, so October is fine and the drop comes in November.

Best Free Hit (Quick Fix) team for Matchday 3

For Sofascore's one-round Quick Fix chip, this 5-4-1 is the highest-projected Matchday 3 squad we could build from the model's numbers, within the solver's price ceiling and the three-per-nation limit, leaving out players our lineups have below an hour of expected minutes:

• GK: Dominik Greif (4.0m, Slovakia) – 6.0 xP
• DEF: Pau Cubarsi (7.0m, Spain) – 7.5 xP
• DEF: Aymeric Laporte (6.5m, Spain) – 7.2 xP
• DEF: Ridle Baku (4.5m, Germany) – 7.1 xP
• DEF: Zakhar Volkov (5.0m, Belarus) – 7.1 xP
• DEF: Tellur Mutallimov (4.0m, Azerbaijan) – 6.8 xP
• MID: Lamine Yamal (12.2m, Spain) – 11.0 xP (captain)
• MID: Michael Olise (10.0m, France) – 10.0 xP
• MID: Florian Wirtz (8.0m, Germany) – 7.5 xP
• MID: Martin Ødegaard (8.2m, Norway) – 7.3 xP
• FWD: Erling Haaland (11.5m, Norway) – 6.9 xP

Bench: Emil Balayev (4.0m), Evgeni Malashevich (4.5m), Mahir Emreli (5.5m), Mohamed Daramy (5.0m). The starting XI projects 95.4, with the captain counted twice. Matchday 4 comes three days later and has blanks for Liechtenstein and Gibraltar, so weigh the chip against the later matchdays before using it now. The exact optimum updates live on the Sofascore Nations League optimal teams page.

Matchday 3 transfer summary

In: Olise first, then Dumfries, Alexander-Arnold or Orban at the back and Greif in goal. Out: Kylian Mbappé, Ronaldo, the benched Germany trio and Raya, then Cubarsi or Cucurella while Czechia is still ahead. Differentials: Gustav Isaksen, Dara O'Shea, Eduard Spertsyan, Bruno Fernandes, and Kristjan Asllani from Matchday 4. Wirtz and Baku are clean one-matchday rotations. Every earlier matchday is in our Sofascore Nations League preview hub, and general strategy is in the guides.

FAQ

Who should I captain in Sofascore Nations League Matchday 3?

Lamine Yamal is the top captain at 11.0 xP, at home to Czechia, ahead of Michael Olise at 10.0 against Italy. Florian Wirtz and Pau Cubarsi (7.5) are the next best. Olise also leads Matchday 4 at 8.6 against Belgium.

Should I sell Kylian Mbappé before Sofascore Nations League Matchday 3?

Yes. Kylian Mbappé is listed as unavailable until 17 October and projects 0.0 in Matchday 3 and Matchday 4. Olise is the natural replacement: 1.9m cheaper, with 25.5 projected over the next three.

Should I sell Cristiano Ronaldo before Sofascore Nations League Matchday 3?

Yes. Cristiano Ronaldo is down to 19 expected minutes in our lineups and projects 0.9 → 2.0 → 2.8 over the next three. Bruno Fernandes projects 20.5 in the same Portugal attack for 0.5m less.

Best differentials for Sofascore Nations League Matchday 3?

Gustav Isaksen (0.1% owned) projects 18.2 over the next three. Dara O'Shea (1.1%) projects 18.3 and Eduard Spertsyan (2.3%) 18.1. Bruno Fernandes (2.3%) is the premium differential at 20.5.

Which teams have no fixture in Sofascore Nations League Matchday 3?

Andorra and Lithuania have no Matchday 3 fixture. Malta play twice in October, at home to Gibraltar and Andorra, and then have no Matchday 5 fixture.

This preview was written by TheFantasyTool AI.