Sofascore NL Matchday 2: captain picks and best buys
Sofascore Nations League Matchday 2 preview: best buys, captain picks and differentials
Sofascore Nations League Matchday 2 opens a tight run. Matchdays 2, 3 and 4 all fall between 27 September and 6 October, and then the competition pauses until November. That makes this deadline the real decision point of the autumn: a transfer made now has to carry you through three matchdays in ten days, so every pick below is judged on its next-three program, not on the Matchday 2 fixture alone. The full numbers behind every name are on our Sofascore Nations League player picks page.
The short version: Netherlands defenders and Mikkel Damsgaard lead the projections, Ireland is the quiet stack of the window, Switzerland and Albania own the best three-matchday runs, and Cristiano Ronaldo and Kylian Mbappé are the high-ownership names to move on.
The programs: whose next three Sofascore Nations League matchdays are worth owning
Switzerland have the best attacking run in the game. [A]SCO → [H]SLO → [H]NM adds up to 6.15 expected goals and 1.31 expected clean sheets. The Scotland trip is the one to plan around, with a 41% win probability, but two home games against Slovenia and North Macedonia follow it. Albania ([A]SMR → [A]FIN → [H]SMR) carry the most clean-sheet equity of any side at 1.45 expected clean sheets, because San Marino appear twice in the window.
Among the big nations, Spain ([H]CRO → [H]CZE → [A]CRO, 5.54 xG) and England ([A]CZE → [A]CRO → [H]CZE, 1.21 expected clean sheets) have the strongest runs, and Germany ([H]GRE → [H]SER → [A]GRE) play twice at home before a trip to Greece. The Netherlands ([A]SER → [A]GRE → [H]SER) are closer to average over three at 4.96 xG, but their players project very well in both Serbia games, which is why they dominate the defender rankings below.
The runs to avoid sit at the bottom of the table. Czechia ([H]ENG → [A]ESP → [A]ENG) face England twice and Spain once for just 2.70 expected goals, and Serbia and Croatia each face two of the tournament's strongest sides. Check the Sofascore Nations League schedule for every fixture and kickoff time, and the market probabilities for the odds behind these numbers.
| Team | Fixture | Win probability | Expected goals | Clean sheet | Program (MD2-MD4) | 3-matchday xG | 3-matchday CS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SUI | [A]SCO | 41% | 1.40 | 31% | [A]SCO → [H]SLO → [H]NM | 6.15 | 1.31 |
| ALB | [A]SMR | 71% | 2.12 | 53% | [A]SMR → [A]FIN → [H]SMR | 5.86 | 1.45 |
| SVK | [H]KAZ | 69% | 2.31 | 42% | [H]KAZ → [A]FRO → [A]MDA | 5.83 | 1.10 |
| ISL | [A]LUX | 44% | 1.47 | 32% | [A]LUX → [H]BGR → [A]EST | 5.79 | 0.99 |
| ESP | [H]CRO | 74% | 2.29 | 52% | [H]CRO → [H]CZE → [A]CRO | 5.54 | 1.13 |
| GER | [H]GRE | 68% | 2.31 | 40% | [H]GRE → [H]SER → [A]GRE | 5.26 | 0.96 |
| FRA | [A]BEL | 49% | 1.74 | 30% | [A]BEL → [H]ITA → [H]BEL | 5.13 | 0.98 |
| ENG | [A]CZE | 66% | 2.08 | 45% | [A]CZE → [A]CRO → [H]CZE | 5.06 | 1.21 |
| NED | [A]SER | 66% | 2.09 | 45% | [A]SER → [A]GRE → [H]SER | 4.96 | 1.00 |
| POR | [A]NOR | 37% | 1.65 | 19% | [A]NOR → [A]DEN → [H]NOR | 4.68 | 0.68 |
| DEN | [H]WAL | 64% | 1.95 | 46% | [H]WAL → [H]POR → [A]WAL | 4.58 | 0.91 |
| IRE | [A]ISR | 38% | 1.35 | 28% | [A]ISR → [H]AUT → [H]ISR | 4.39 | 0.91 |
| BEL | [H]FRA | 25% | 1.19 | 18% | [H]FRA → [H]TUR → [A]FRA | 3.39 | 0.62 |
| CRO | [A]ESP | 8% | 0.65 | 10% | [A]ESP → [H]ENG → [H]ESP | 3.12 | 0.63 |
| SER | [H]NED | 13% | 0.80 | 12% | [H]NED → [A]GER → [A]NED | 2.89 | 0.45 |
| NM | [A]SLO | 20% | 0.88 | 20% | [A]SLO → [H]SCO → [A]SUI | 2.83 | 0.48 |
| CZE | [H]ENG | 13% | 0.80 | 13% | [H]ENG → [A]ESP → [A]ENG | 2.70 | 0.46 |
Best goalkeepers for Sofascore Nations League Matchday 2
Caoimhin Kelleher (5.0m, IRE) is the goalkeeper to own for the window. His program is [A]ISR → [H]AUT → [H]ISR and he projects 5.2 → 5.3 → 5.3, the highest three-matchday total of any keeper at 15.8. Only 2.9% of managers have him. The trajectory is flat, which is exactly what you want from a keeper you buy once and then stop thinking about.
Daniel Peretz (5.0m, ISR) is the less-owned alternative at 0.4%, projecting 5.1 → 5.1 → 4.7 over the same Ireland double-header from the other side ([H]IRE → [H]KOS → [A]IRE). For the second keeper slot, Vanja Milinkovic-Savic (4.5m, SER) is the value pick. Serbia's schedule ([H]NED → [A]GER → [A]NED) is the reason he projects a steady 4.5 → 4.7 → 4.7: keepers facing the Netherlands and Germany make saves.
Best defenders for Sofascore Nations League Matchday 2
Denzel Dumfries (7.0m, NED) is the top-projected player in the whole game for Matchday 2 at 8.1, and his program of [A]SER → [A]GRE → [H]SER holds up: 8.1 → 5.2 → 7.0 for 20.3 over three. The Greece trip is the soft spot in the middle, but two very good Serbia games around it make him a clean buy, and at 4.0% ownership he is still a differential.
Jan Paul van Hecke (6.0m, NED) is the second Dutch defender, 7.7 → 5.8 → 6.5 over the same [A]SER → [A]GRE → [H]SER for 20.0. Here the Matchday 2 ranking and the three-matchday ranking point in different directions. Van Hecke out-projects Dara O'Shea (5.0m, IRE) this round (7.7 against 6.5), but O'Shea edges him over three (20.1 against 20.0), costs 1.0m less, and keeps his level into November while van Hecke fades to 4.1 by Matchday 6. If you are buying one defender to keep, buy O'Shea. His program is [A]ISR → [H]AUT → [H]ISR, his trajectory 6.5 → 6.5 → 7.1, and only 0.5% of managers own him.
O'Shea and Kelleher are also a correlated pair: the same Ireland back line drives both scores, so a strong week lands twice. If Ireland have a bad night, both suffer, but at 5.0m each the stack is a calculated risk rather than a gamble.
At the premium end, Nuno Mendes (7.5m, POR) is the one highly-owned defender worth holding: 6.1 → 5.8 → 6.7 over [A]NOR → [A]DEN → [H]NOR, rising to 7.0 in Matchday 5. Among the value picks, Philipp Mwene (5.0m, AUT) projects 6.6 → 4.8 → 5.2 over [H]KOS → [A]IRE → [A]KOS at 0.3% ownership. The Kosovo home game is the one to target; the Ireland trip is weaker, and the return game in Kosovo brings him back up.
For the cheapest slots, two defenders have rising trajectories, which is the argument for buying them now rather than later. Ben Davies (4.5m, WAL) goes 4.6 → 5.8 → 6.1 over [A]DEN → [H]NOR → [H]DEN, and Dion Gallapeni (4.5m, KOS) goes 4.8 → 5.3 → 5.7 over [A]AUT → [A]ISR → [H]AUT, reaching 6.5 in Matchday 5. Both are projected close to 90 minutes in teams that spend a lot of time defending.
| Player | Team | Price | Owned | MD2 → MD3 → MD4 | 3-matchday total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denzel Dumfries | NED | 7.0m | 4.0% | 8.1 → 5.2 → 7.0 | 20.3 |
| Dara O'Shea | IRE | 5.0m | 0.5% | 6.5 → 6.5 → 7.1 | 20.1 |
| Jan Paul van Hecke | NED | 6.0m | 6.0% | 7.7 → 5.8 → 6.5 | 20.0 |
| Nuno Mendes | POR | 7.5m | 17.2% | 6.1 → 5.8 → 6.7 | 18.6 |
| Philipp Mwene | AUT | 5.0m | 0.3% | 6.6 → 4.8 → 5.2 | 16.6 |
| Ben Davies | WAL | 4.5m | 0.6% | 4.6 → 5.8 → 6.1 | 16.5 |
| Dion Gallapeni | KOS | 4.5m | 0.1% | 4.8 → 5.3 → 5.7 | 15.8 |
Best midfielders for Sofascore Nations League Matchday 2
Mikkel Damsgaard (5.5m, DEN) is the standout buy of the round. He projects 7.8 → 6.8 → 5.6 over [H]WAL → [H]POR → [A]WAL, the top three-matchday total of any midfielder at 20.2, ahead of Lamine Yamal at less than half the price. Two home games open the run. The trip to Wales is the weakest of the three and his projection falls to 5.6, so treat him as a buy for the October window rather than a season-long hold. He is only 1.3% owned and has produced 0.50 xGI per 90 across his last ten matches.
Lamine Yamal (12.0m, ESP) is the premium to keep: 7.4 → 5.4 → 5.5 over [H]CRO → [H]CZE → [A]CRO, backed by 1.03 xGI per 90 over his last ten matches. He is 38.6% owned, so holding him protects your rank rather than winning it. Bruno Fernandes (10.0m, POR) is the premium differential. His program is [A]NOR → [A]DEN → [H]NOR, he matches Michael Olise (10.0m, FRA) (program [A]BEL → [H]ITA → [H]BEL) over three with 18.2 each, he takes Portugal's penalties, and he is only 4.0% owned. His trajectory (6.2 → 5.6 → 6.4 → 6.5) is the flattest of the premium midfielders.
The hidden gem is Kristjan Asllani (7.0m, ALB). Albania's [A]SMR → [A]FIN → [H]SMR contains two San Marino games, and his projection of 6.3 → 4.2 → 7.3 peaks at 7.3 in Matchday 4, the highest number any player in the game has that week. He takes Albania's penalties and is owned by 0.4% of managers. The Finland trip in the middle is the dip; the two San Marino games are the reason to own him.
For a cheap midfield slot, Andrija Zivkovic (5.0m, SER) gives a flat 4.6 → 4.7 → 4.7 over [H]NED → [A]GER → [A]NED. That is not exciting, but he plays and he does not fall away. Jayson Molumby (5.0m, IRE) (4.6 → 4.5 → 4.8 over [A]ISR → [H]AUT → [H]ISR) is the same profile from Ireland, but only if you are not already using Ireland slots on Kelleher and O'Shea, since the game caps you at three players per nation.
| Player | Team | Price | Owned | MD2 → MD3 → MD4 | 3-matchday total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mikkel Damsgaard | DEN | 5.5m | 1.3% | 7.8 → 6.8 → 5.6 | 20.2 |
| Lamine Yamal | ESP | 12.0m | 38.6% | 7.4 → 5.4 → 5.5 | 18.3 |
| Bruno Fernandes | POR | 10.0m | 4.0% | 6.2 → 5.6 → 6.4 | 18.2 |
| Michael Olise | FRA | 10.0m | 25.3% | 6.5 → 5.3 → 6.4 | 18.2 |
| Kristjan Asllani | ALB | 7.0m | 0.4% | 6.3 → 4.2 → 7.3 | 17.8 |
| Andrija Zivkovic | SER | 5.0m | 0.3% | 4.6 → 4.7 → 4.7 | 14.0 |
Best forwards for Sofascore Nations League Matchday 2
Erling Haaland (11.5m, NOR) is the forward to own for the window: 6.7 → 5.7 → 6.1 over [H]POR → [A]WAL → [A]POR for 18.5, the most of any forward by nearly three points. Portugal twice is not an easy pair of fixtures, but he takes Norway's penalties and has produced 0.87 xGI per 90 across his last ten matches. He also projects 6.8 in Matchday 5, so this is a hold, not a rotation.
Here the round and the program disagree again. Harry Kane out-projects Breel Embolo (7.5m, SUI) for Matchday 2 (5.6 against 4.5), but Embolo wins over three (15.3 against 14.3) at 4.5m less. Switzerland's [A]SCO → [H]SLO → [H]NM is the best attacking run in the game and his trajectory (4.5 → 4.6 → 6.2) rises into the North Macedonia game, so buy him before the good run peaks. He is 0.8% owned, with 0.63 xGI per 90 across his last ten matches.
Danel Sinani (6.0m, LUX) is the value forward: 4.8 → 4.3 → 5.4 over [H]ISL → [A]EST → [H]BGR, a penalty taker, and 14.5 over three, more than Kane at half the price. Viktor Gyökeres (8.0m, SWE) is worth a look if you plan beyond October: 5.0 → 4.4 → 4.8 over [H]POL → [A]BIH → [A]ROM, then 6.2 in Matchday 5.
| Player | Team | Price | Owned | MD2 → MD3 → MD4 | 3-matchday total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erling Haaland | NOR | 11.5m | 29.7% | 6.7 → 5.7 → 6.1 | 18.5 |
| Breel Embolo | SUI | 7.5m | 0.8% | 4.5 → 4.6 → 6.2 | 15.3 |
| Danel Sinani | LUX | 6.0m | 0.8% | 4.8 → 4.3 → 5.4 | 14.5 |
| Viktor Gyökeres | SWE | 8.0m | 3.9% | 5.0 → 4.4 → 4.8 | 14.2 |
| Harry Kane | ENG | 12.0m | 14.5% | 5.6 → 3.8 → 4.9 | 14.3 |
Best captain picks for Sofascore Nations League Matchday 2
- Denzel Dumfries is the top captain pick at 8.1 projected points away to Serbia, the highest number in the game this matchday. He projects 7.0 again in the return game against Serbia on Matchday 4.
- Mikkel Damsgaard (7.8) at home to Wales is close behind, and he is also the top-projected player of Matchday 3 at 6.8.
- Lamine Yamal (7.4) at home to Croatia is the safe choice. At 38.6% ownership, captaining him keeps you level with the field rather than ahead of it.
Captaincy is a plan across the window. Damsgaard (6.8) and O'Shea (6.5) lead Matchday 3, and Asllani (7.3), O'Shea (7.1) and Dumfries (7.0) lead Matchday 4. Owning Dumfries, Damsgaard and O'Shea gives you a top captain option in each of the three matchdays. Check the Sofascore Nations League predicted lineups before you hand out the armband.
Who to sell before Sofascore Nations League Matchday 2
Cristiano Ronaldo (10.5m, POR) is the clearest sell. He is 15.5% owned and projects 3.8 → 2.9 → 3.4 over [A]NOR → [A]DEN → [H]NOR, under 4 points in every one of the three. There is no good week to sell him into and no better week coming, so waiting only costs points. The money funds Haaland, or two of the mid-priced buys above.
Kylian Mbappé (12.0m, FRA) is the harder call, because his form is not the problem: 1.21 xGI per 90 across his last ten matches. His program is [A]BEL → [H]ITA → [H]BEL, [A]BEL is a fair fixture and 5.7 is a respectable projection. But Haaland out-projects him in every one of the next three matchdays (6.7 → 5.7 → 6.1 against 5.7 → 4.5 → 5.5) and costs 0.5m less. The gap is there every week, so each week you wait costs you about a point. If you make the move, make it now.
Goalkeepers are the easiest upgrade. Unai Simon (6.5m, 13.4% owned) projects 4.5 → 3.9 → 3.5 over [H]CRO → [H]CZE → [A]CRO, and the home game against Croatia, with a 52% clean sheet chance, is his best week of the three. Kelleher still out-projects him that week. Diogo Costa (3.6 → 3.8 → 4.0) and Gianluigi Donnarumma (3.8 → 3.5 → 3.9) stay below Kelleher and Peretz throughout, so none of the three is worth keeping. A goalkeeper swap is a lower priority than Ronaldo, though: you can wait a round on this one and make it when you have a transfer spare.
Josko Gvardiol (17.5% owned) projects 3.0 → 4.3 → 4.2 over [A]ESP → [H]ENG → [H]ESP. Matchday 2 at Spain is his low point, and even the recovery tops out at 4.3, below every defender recommended above, so there is nothing to wait for. Karim Adeyemi (7.6% owned) is a sell for a different reason. Germany's run of [H]GRE → [H]SER → [A]GRE is good, but his projected minutes fall across the window and his projection goes 4.0 → 3.8 → 2.9. Matchday 2 is his best week of the three, which makes this the week to sell.
Pau Cubarsi is the one you can wait on. Spain's home game against Croatia is a good fixture and his 5.4 is worth keeping for this matchday. The drop comes on Matchday 4, when he falls to 3.2 as his projected minutes fall. Keep him for now and move him on before the Matchday 4 deadline.
Transfer summary for Sofascore Nations League Matchday 2
- Priority 1: Cristiano Ronaldo out. Every one of his next three projections is under 4 points.
- Priority 2: Kylian Mbappé to Erling Haaland, if you have the transfer. Haaland out-projects him in all three matchdays.
- Targets: Dumfries, O'Shea, Damsgaard, Asllani and Embolo. Each has a strong three-matchday program and ownership under 5%.
- Can wait: Cubarsí (sell before Matchday 4) and the goalkeeper upgrade.
For the squad that maximises projected points over any window you choose, run the Sofascore Nations League optimal teams solver. Last round's picks are in the Sofascore Nations League Matchday 1 preview, and every article for this game is collected in our Sofascore Nations League preview hub. New to the site? Start with our fantasy guides.
FAQ
Who should I captain in Sofascore Nations League Matchday 2?
Denzel Dumfries is the top captain pick with 8.1 projected points away to Serbia, the highest in the game this matchday. Mikkel Damsgaard (7.8) at home to Wales and Lamine Yamal (7.4) at home to Croatia are the alternatives.
Who are the best differentials for Sofascore Nations League Matchday 2?
Dara O'Shea (0.5% owned, 20.1 projected over three matchdays), Mikkel Damsgaard (1.3%), Kristjan Asllani (0.4%) and Breel Embolo (0.8%). All four have strong programs through Matchday 4.
Should I sell Cristiano Ronaldo before Matchday 2?
Yes. He projects 3.8 → 2.9 → 3.4 over Portugal's next three matchdays, under 4 points every time, so there is no better week to wait for. The money is better spent on Erling Haaland or a mid-priced buy like Breel Embolo.
Which budget defenders are best for Sofascore Nations League Matchday 2?
Ben Davies (4.5m, 4.6 → 5.8 → 6.1) and Dion Gallapeni (4.5m, 4.8 → 5.3 → 5.7) both have rising projections through Matchday 4. Dara O'Shea at 5.0m is the best value defender overall.
This preview was written by TheFantasyTool AI.