Sofascore NL Matchday 1: captain picks and best buys
Sofascore Nations League Matchday 1 preview: best buys, captain picks and differentials
Sofascore Nations League Matchday 1 opens the 2026/27 UEFA Nations League, and the squad you pick now has to last through a packed double window: four matchdays between 24 September and 6 October, with one free transfer per matchday. Matchday 1 is the only decision you make with a completely free hand, so base it on the program (the first three matchdays), not only on who scores most this week. Below are the best buys by position, the captain pick, the differentials and the popular picks to leave out, all taken from TheFantasyTool's model. The full ranked list is on the Sofascore Nations League player picks page.
The programs: whose first three Sofascore Nations League matchdays are worth owning
Germany ([A]NED → [H]GRE → [H]SER), France ([A]TUR → [A]BEL → [H]ITA), Portugal ([H]WAL → [A]NOR → [A]DEN) and Spain ([A]ENG → [H]CRO → [H]CZE) have the four best League A attacking programs. Each projects above 5.5 expected goals over the first three matchdays, but the runs are shaped very differently. Portugal's is front-loaded: 2.85 expected goals and a 53% clean-sheet chance at home to Wales is the strongest League A fixture of Matchday 1 (Wales project just 0.63 goals), and trips to Norway and Denmark follow. Germany and Spain run the other way. Both open with a tough game ([A]NED at a 19% clean-sheet chance, [A]ENG at 28%) and then play twice at home. Spain's 1.14 expected clean sheets over three matchdays is the best defensive program in League A.
At the bottom, Wales ([A]POR → [A]DEN → [H]NOR), Serbia ([H]GRE → [H]NED → [A]GER) and Czechia ([H]CRO → [H]ENG → [A]ESP) have the weakest runs, and Croatia's [A]CZE → [A]ESP → [H]ENG gets hard after the opener. The table below covers League A, sorted by 3-matchday expected goals. The fixture list for every league is on the Sofascore Nations League schedule, and team-level odds are on the market probabilities page.
| Team | Matchday 1 | Win probability | Expected goals | Clean sheet | Program (MD1-3) | 3-matchday xG | 3-matchday CS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Germany | [A]NED | 40% | 1.76 | 19% | [A]NED → [H]GRE → [H]SER | 5.85 | 1.01 |
| France | [A]TUR | 67% | 2.39 | 36% | [A]TUR → [A]BEL → [H]ITA | 5.72 | 0.98 |
| Portugal | [H]WAL | 82% | 2.85 | 53% | [H]WAL → [A]NOR → [A]DEN | 5.66 | 1.00 |
| Spain | [A]ENG | 39% | 1.43 | 28% | [A]ENG → [H]CRO → [H]CZE | 5.58 | 1.14 |
| Norway | [H]DEN | 54% | 1.94 | 30% | [H]DEN → [H]POR → [A]WAL | 4.66 | 0.80 |
| England | [H]ESP | 33% | 1.29 | 24% | [H]ESP → [A]CZE → [A]CRO | 4.63 | 1.02 |
| Netherlands | [H]GER | 36% | 1.67 | 17% | [H]GER → [A]SER → [A]GRE | 4.54 | 0.80 |
| Denmark | [A]NOR | 23% | 1.20 | 14% | [A]NOR → [H]WAL → [H]POR | 4.41 | 0.84 |
| Italy | [H]BEL | 43% | 1.54 | 28% | [H]BEL → [A]TUR → [A]FRA | 4.08 | 0.77 |
| Belgium | [A]ITA | 30% | 1.26 | 22% | [A]ITA → [H]FRA → [H]TUR | 3.65 | 0.67 |
| Turkiye | [H]FRA | 14% | 1.03 | 9% | [H]FRA → [H]ITA → [A]BEL | 3.59 | 0.64 |
| Greece | [A]SER | 37% | 1.21 | 32% | [A]SER → [A]GER → [H]NED | 3.55 | 0.77 |
| Croatia | [A]CZE | 45% | 1.61 | 29% | [A]CZE → [A]ESP → [H]ENG | 3.37 | 0.66 |
| Czechia | [H]CRO | 29% | 1.25 | 20% | [H]CRO → [H]ENG → [A]ESP | 3.10 | 0.48 |
| Serbia | [H]GRE | 33% | 1.14 | 30% | [H]GRE → [H]NED → [A]GER | 3.00 | 0.63 |
| Wales | [A]POR | 5% | 0.63 | 6% | [A]POR → [A]DEN → [H]NOR | 2.78 | 0.51 |
The game pools all four leagues. In League D, Gibraltar and Azerbaijan have no Matchday 1 fixture, so their players score nothing this round. League B and C nations such as Hungary, Georgia, Finland and Albania supply most of the differentials below.
Best goalkeepers for Matchday 1
Diogo Costa (6.0m, POR) has the highest Matchday 1 projection of any goalkeeper at 4.8, driven by Portugal's 53% clean-sheet chance against Wales. His program is [H]WAL → [A]NOR → [A]DEN, and his trajectory drops straight after the opener: 4.8 → 3.6 → 3.7. With one free transfer per matchday, he is a strong first-round pick but not a keeper to plan the whole window around.
Over three matchdays, Lukas Hradecky (5.5m, FIN) is the better hold. Finland's [A]San Marino → [H]Belarus → [H]Albania gives him 4.6 → 4.4 → 4.5, and his 13.5 total is the highest of any goalkeeper. Only 5.2% of managers own him. Here the round ranking and the program ranking disagree: Costa wins Matchday 1, Hradecky wins the three. If you are buying one keeper to keep, buy Hradecky.
The budget pick is Alen Sherri (4.0m, ALB). Albania's [H]Belarus → [A]San Marino → [A]Finland gives him 4.6 → 4.8 → 4.0 (13.4 over three) at the minimum price and 0.4% ownership, which frees money for midfield. Gregor Kobel (5.5m, SUI) ([A]North Macedonia → [A]Scotland → [H]Slovenia, 4.4 → 3.8 → 4.7) is the mid-price option, and his 4.7 on Matchday 3 beats both Hradecky and Sherri.
Best defenders for Matchday 1
Portugal's full-backs are the premium defensive buy. Nuno Mendes (7.5m, POR) projects 7.7 against Wales and 17.3 over [H]WAL → [A]NOR → [A]DEN, the highest three-matchday total of any defender. Joao Cancelo (6.0m, POR) matches him on Matchday 1 (7.7) for 1.5m less, with a trajectory of 7.7 → 4.1 → 4.6. Both drop after the opener but stay above 4 on the away trips, so they are not one-round buys. The cap is three players per nation, so if you also want Portugal's goalkeeper and Bruno Fernandes, pick one full-back rather than both.
Willi Orban (5.5m, HUN) is the best non-Portuguese defender over three matchdays. Hungary's [H]Ukraine → [A]Northern Ireland → [H]Georgia gives him 5.8 → 5.2 → 5.9, and his 16.9 total is second among defenders, behind only Nuno Mendes. He is owned by 2.9%. Three decent fixtures and no weak one is the kind of program that earns a hold.
For budget spots, three 5.0m defenders total above 15: Nair Tiknizyan (5.0m, ARM) ([H]Latvia → [H]Montenegro → [A]Cyprus, 5.9 → 5.2 → 4.1), Philipp Lienhart (5.0m, AUT) ([H]Israel → [H]Kosovo → [A]Ireland, 5.4 → 5.4 → 4.3) and Roland Sallai (5.0m, HUN) ([H]Ukraine → [A]Northern Ireland → [H]Georgia, 5.4 → 4.6 → 5.2). None is owned by more than 1.5% of managers. Pick Tiknizyan if Matchday 1 matters most to you. Pick Sallai if you already have Orban and want to double up on Hungary's clean sheets.
Virgil van Dijk (7.0m, NED) is a buy for later, not now. The Netherlands open at home to Germany with only a 17% clean-sheet chance, which holds him to 4.9. His 6.3 at Serbia on Matchday 2 is one of that round's best defender scores. Joachim Andersen (5.5m, DEN) follows the same pattern ([A]NOR → [H]WAL → [H]POR, 4.4 → 6.2 → 5.1), and Denmark's 43% clean-sheet chance against Wales makes him a Matchday 2 target.
Best midfielders for Matchday 1
Michael Olise (10.0m, FRA) is the best midfielder whichever way you measure it. He tops the whole game on Matchday 1 with 8.0, and leads all players over three matchdays with 19.8 on [A]TUR → [A]BEL → [H]ITA. France carry a 67% win probability and 2.39 expected goals in Turkiye. He is 26.0% owned and the premium to build around.
Lamine Yamal (12.0m, ESP) is the most-owned midfielder at 39.0%. The program explains why he is worth the price despite a tough opener: [A]ENG → [H]CRO → [H]CZE, 5.9 → 7.4 → 5.4, 18.7 over three. His 7.4 at home to Croatia is the top projection of Matchday 2. Owning him protects your rank, so leaving him out is a deliberate bet against a template player.
Two League B midfielders keep pace with the elite for less money. Dominik Szoboszlai (8.5m, HUN) projects 6.4 → 5.4 → 6.3 on [H]Ukraine → [A]Northern Ireland → [H]Georgia (18.1 total), and Khvicha Kvaratskhelia (9.0m, GEO) projects 6.4 → 6.7 → 5.0 on [H]Northern Ireland → [H]Ukraine → [A]Hungary (18.1 total). Both beat Jude Bellingham's 17.6 at 1.5 to 2.0m less. Szoboszlai's 6.3 at home to Georgia is the top projection of Matchday 3.
Bruno Fernandes (10.0m, POR) is the most front-loaded premium, with 7.4 → 5.0 → 4.5 on [H]WAL → [A]NOR → [A]DEN. His 7.4 against Wales makes him a genuine captain option, and only 4.0% own him. After that, 10.0m is a lot to pay for 5.0 and 4.5, so plan to use your Matchday 2 or 3 transfer on him.
The value tier is strong. Antonio Nusa (7.0m, NOR) projects 6.0 → 5.2 → 4.8 on [H]DEN → [H]POR → [A]WAL (16.0 total). Tomas Suslov (6.0m, SVK) projects 5.8 → 5.7 → 3.7 on Slovakia's [H]Moldova → [H]Kazakhstan → [A]Faroe Islands, with two home games before a weaker away trip. Manor Solomon (6.0m, ISR) is the rising pick, projecting 4.8 → 5.8 → 5.7 on [A]Austria → [H]Ireland → [H]Kosovo for a 16.3 total. Suslov scores more on Matchday 1 but Solomon scores more over the three, so buy Solomon if you plan to keep him. Midfielders at 5.0m or less are thin. Joey Veerman (5.0m, NED) ([H]GER → [A]SER → [A]GRE, 4.6 → 3.9 → 3.3) is the cheapest usable starter, but treat him as a filler, not a points source.
Best forwards for Matchday 1
Kylian Mbappé (12.0m, FRA) is the top forward for Matchday 1 at 6.9, on the same France program as Olise (6.9 → 5.6 → 4.6). Over three matchdays, though, Viktor Gyökeres (8.0m, SWE) edges him, 17.6 to 17.1. Sweden's [H]Romania → [H]Poland → [A]Bosnia and Herzegovina gives Gyökeres 5.7 → 6.8 → 5.1. He costs 4.0m less than Mbappé and has 3.8% ownership to Mbappé's 39.2%. That makes him excellent value and the obvious way to fund a second premium elsewhere.
Ousmane Dembélé (10.0m, FRA) (6.1 → 5.0 → 4.1, 15.2 total) is a strong third French attacker for managers who want the full stack within the three-per-nation cap. Breel Embolo (7.5m, SUI) has a flat program ([A]North Macedonia → [A]Scotland → [H]Slovenia, 4.9 → 4.6 → 4.6) and then projects 5.9 at home to North Macedonia on Matchday 4, so you can pick him and stop thinking about him. On a budget, Danel Sinani (6.0m, LUX) ([A]Bulgaria → [H]Iceland → [A]Estonia, 4.6 → 4.8 → 4.3) and Nicola Nanni (5.0m, SMR) ([H]Finland → [H]Albania → [A]Belarus, 4.5 → 4.0 → 4.1) both project at least 4.0 in each of the first three matchdays.
Check the Sofascore Nations League predicted lineups before the deadline. International squads rotate more than club sides, and a place in the starting XI matters more than a small xP edge.
Who to captain in Sofascore Nations League Matchday 1
Captain Michael Olise. His 8.0 is the highest projection in the game, which doubles to 16.0 as captain. Nuno Mendes and Joao Cancelo sit just behind on 7.7, so a Portugal defender is the lower-variance alternative. Bruno Fernandes (7.4) and Kylian Mbappé (6.9) are the attacking alternatives. Bruno is the differential captain, owned by only 4.0%.
Plan the captaincy across matchdays, because the plan decides which premiums to own. On Matchday 2 the top projection is Lamine Yamal's (7.4), ahead of Bellingham and Gyökeres (6.8). On Matchday 3 it is Szoboszlai's (6.3). Owning Olise, Yamal and Szoboszlai gives you a strong captain in each of the first three matchdays without spending a transfer.
Who to avoid in Sofascore Nations League Matchday 1
Erling Haaland (11.5m, 29.7% owned) is the popular pick the program argues against. 4.9 at home to Denmark is a respectable start, but [H]DEN → [H]POR → [A]WAL gives him 4.9 → 3.9 → 3.3, only 12.1 over three. Gyökeres costs 3.5m less and projects 17.6. Leave Haaland out for now and look at him again later in the campaign.
Cristiano Ronaldo (10.5m, 15.4% owned) also gets the Wales game, but projects only 4.8 → 3.5 → 2.8 across the three. Bruno Fernandes is 0.5m cheaper on the same program and projects 16.9 to Ronaldo's 11.1. If you want Portugal's attack, Bruno is the one to own.
Harry Kane (12.0m, 14.7% owned) costs the same as Mbappé but projects 14.6 to Mbappé's 17.1 over three. England's [H]ESP → [A]CZE → [A]CRO opens against Spain. His 5.8 in Czechia is worth a look for Matchday 2, but he is not worth 12.0m on Matchday 1.
Josko Gvardiol (6.0m, 17.5% owned) is one of the two most-owned defenders, and Croatia's [A]CZE → [A]ESP → [H]ENG gives him 4.6 → 3.0 → 4.3. Orban costs 0.5m less and projects 16.9 to Gvardiol's 11.9. Similarly, Gianluigi Donnarumma (6.0m, 14.1% owned) projects 3.8 → 3.7 → 3.4, below both Hradecky and Sherri, and costs more. Finally, Karim Adeyemi (7.5m, 7.1% owned) is a minutes risk. The model has him starting only about half the time, and he projects 4.5 in the Netherlands.
Matchday 1 summary
Build around Olise and Portugal's Wales fixture. Bring in the League B value (Orban, Szoboszlai, Kvaratskhelia, Gyökeres) from the start, because their programs hold for all three matchdays. Keep Van Dijk and Andersen in mind for your Matchday 2 transfer. To check a full legal squad, use the live optimal teams for Sofascore Nations League, which solves the best squad from the same projections. Future round previews for this game will appear in the Sofascore Nations League preview hub, and our other fantasy guides are on the guides page.
FAQ
Who should I captain in Sofascore Nations League Matchday 1?
Michael Olise is the top captain pick, with 8.0 projected points for France in Turkiye, the highest in the game. Nuno Mendes and Joao Cancelo (7.7) are the safest alternatives, and Bruno Fernandes (7.4) is the differential.
Who are the best differentials for Sofascore Nations League Matchday 1?
Willi Orban (2.9% owned, 16.9 over three matchdays), Lukas Hradecky (5.2%, 13.5), Viktor Gyökeres (3.8%, 17.6) and Manor Solomon (1.1%, 16.3) all project near the top of their position at low ownership.
Is Erling Haaland worth picking for Sofascore Nations League Matchday 1?
Not at 11.5m. Haaland projects 4.9 against Denmark but only 12.1 over the first three matchdays, while Viktor Gyökeres projects 17.6 for 8.0m.
Which cheap defenders are best for Sofascore Nations League Matchday 1?
Nair Tiknizyan (Armenia), Philipp Lienhart (Austria) and Roland Sallai (Hungary) all cost 5.0m and project above 15 points over the first three matchdays.
Which Nations League team has the best fixtures for fantasy?
Portugal have the best single League A fixture on Matchday 1 (home to Wales, 53% clean-sheet chance). Over the first three matchdays, Germany, France, Portugal and Spain have the strongest attacking programs, and Spain have the best defensive one (1.14 expected clean sheets).
This preview was written by TheFantasyTool AI.