Sofascore LaLiga Gameweek 11: captains and best buys
Sofascore LaLiga Gameweek 11 preview: best buys, captain picks and differentials
Sofascore LaLiga Gameweek 11 opens on Friday 30 October with Villarreal hosting Espanyol, and the transfers you make before that deadline should be judged on the next three gameweeks, not on this one alone. Barcelona and Real Madrid own the best attacking runs, Osasuna own the best defensive one, and Villarreal have two home games before a trip to Barcelona. Atletico Madrid are the team to plan around: a decent trip to Levante now, then Barcelona at home in Gameweek 12.
Every number below comes from our model's projected points (xP). The full table is on the Sofascore LaLiga player picks page, and our optimal teams for Sofascore LaLiga solve the best squad live. If you missed last week's analysis, the Sofascore LaLiga Gameweek 10 preview is still up.
The programs: whose next three gameweeks are worth owning
The table ranks the ten best programs across Gameweeks 11, 12 and 13. The first five columns are this gameweek; the last three add up all three fixtures. 3-round CS is the expected number of clean sheets out of three games, not a percentage. Gameweek 13 follows the mid-November break in the schedule. Every club plays once in each of the three gameweeks, so the totals compare like with like.
| Team | GW11 fixture | Win probability | Expected goals | Clean sheet | Program (GW11-13) | 3-round xG | 3-round CS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAR | [H]ALA | 85% | 3.29 | 48% | [H]ALA → [A]ATM → [H]VIL | 7.12 | 1.01 |
| RMA | [A]SAN | 76% | 3.00 | 34% | [A]SAN → [A]VAL → [H]CEL | 6.71 | 1.05 |
| OSA | [A]COR | 45% | 1.27 | 42% | [A]COR → [H]ATH → [H]MAL | 4.08 | 1.36 |
| VIL | [H]ESP | 61% | 2.07 | 36% | [H]ESP → [H]GET → [A]BAR | 5.01 | 0.97 |
| BET | [H]MAL | 68% | 2.33 | 40% | [H]MAL → [A]ELC → [A]SEV | 4.88 | 0.96 |
| ATM | [A]LEV | 59% | 2.03 | 34% | [A]LEV → [H]BAR → [A]GET | 4.77 | 0.94 |
| ATH | [H]RSO | 46% | 1.58 | 31% | [H]RSO → [A]OSA → [H]ESP | 4.05 | 1.08 |
| RSO | [A]ATH | 27% | 1.16 | 21% | [A]ATH → [H]RAY → [A]SAN | 4.09 | 0.97 |
| SEV | [A]GET | 37% | 1.10 | 38% | [A]GET → [H]ALA → [H]BET | 3.49 | 1.08 |
| LEV | [H]ATM | 19% | 1.07 | 13% | [H]ATM → [A]CEL → [H]ELC | 4.23 | 0.71 |
Barcelona have the best attacking run in the game: [H]ALA → [A]ATM → [H]VIL adds up to 7.12 expected goals. The Alaves game is the standout fixture of the gameweek, with an 85% win probability, 3.29 expected goals and a 48% clean sheet chance. The trip to Atletico is the one week to plan around, not a reason to avoid them, because Villarreal at home follows.
Real Madrid are the steadiest attack: [A]SAN → [A]VAL → [H]CEL, 6.71 expected goals and 1.05 expected clean sheets, with no fixture in the run below 1.5 expected goals. Osasuna are the defensive pick of the window. [A]COR → [H]ATH → [H]MAL gives them 1.36 expected clean sheets, the most in the league, and the Malaga home game in Gameweek 13 carries a 55% clean sheet chance. Villarreal are a two-week target: [H]ESP → [H]GET, then [A]BAR. Their 50% clean sheet chance against Getafe is the best of Gameweek 12.
At the other end, Deportivo La Coruna ([H]OSA → [A]ESP → [A]ALA, 2.22 expected goals) and Getafe ([H]SEV → [A]VIL → [H]ATM, 2.58) have the weakest attacking runs. Racing Santander have the fewest expected clean sheets at 0.61, starting with Real Madrid at home. Kick-off times are on the Sofascore LaLiga schedule, and the bookmaker numbers behind every fixture are on the market probabilities page.
Best goalkeepers for Sofascore LaLiga Gameweek 11
Álvaro Vallés (6.0m, BET) is the best keeper over the next two gameweeks, projected 5.7 → 5.2 (10.9 in total) on a program of [H]MAL → [A]ELC → [A]SEV. Betis carry a 40% clean sheet chance against Malaga, and he is projected to play the full game in both of the next two. He is owned by 12.4%.
Péter Gulácsi (5.1m, VIL) is the cheaper alternative and nearly as good: 5.0 → 5.1 on [H]ESP → [H]GET → [A]BAR. His Gameweek 12 projection is higher than this week's because Villarreal host Getafe with a 50% clean sheet chance. Only 2.1% own him. Plan to bench or move him on for the trip to Barcelona in Gameweek 13.
Aitor Fernández (4.5m, OSA) is the budget keeper and the one to hold longest. He projects 4.6 → 4.2, but Osasuna's [A]COR → [H]ATH → [H]MAL is the best defensive program in the game, and his 1.02 points per million this gameweek is the best of any keeper. At 0.6% ownership, he is a real differential.
Best defenders for Sofascore LaLiga Gameweek 11
Alex Freeman (5.1m, VIL) is the defender to buy and hold. He projects 6.4 → 5.6, and his 12.0 over two gameweeks is the highest of any defender in the game. His program is [H]ESP → [H]GET → [A]BAR, he is a goal and assist threat as well as a clean sheet bet, and he is owned by only 1.5%. At 1.25 points per million, he is also the budget defender of the round.
Joao Cancelo (6.0m, BAR) is the top defender this gameweek at 7.9 against Alaves, but his program is a one-week story: [H]ALA → [A]ATM → [H]VIL, and he drops to 3.9 at Atletico. That is where the gameweek ranking and the two-week ranking disagree, and we side with Freeman. If you are buying one defender and keeping him, Freeman's 12.0 beats Cancelo's 11.8 for 0.9m less, and he does not need the Alaves game to justify the buy.
Kike Salas (6.0m, SEV) has the flattest trajectory of any premium defender: 5.7 → 5.7 on [A]GET → [H]ALA → [H]BET. Only he and Espanyol's Leandro Cabrera project 5.7 in Gameweek 12, the most of any defender. Sevilla's 1.08 expected clean sheets over the three is joint second in the league, so this is a defender you can buy and stop thinking about. Gabriel Suazo (5.1m, SEV) is the cheaper way into the same defence and the same [A]GET → [H]ALA → [H]BET program: 5.0 → 5.1, 2.3% owned.
Alejandro Catena (6.3m, OSA) is the Osasuna defender: 5.8 → 5.0 on [A]COR → [H]ATH → [H]MAL, owned by 4.7%. Pau Cubarsi (7.3m, BAR) is the template pick at 22.5% ownership and 6.5 this gameweek. He is fine to hold, but at 4.3 in Gameweek 12 he does not beat Freeman or Salas over the two weeks.
Best midfielders for Sofascore LaLiga Gameweek 11
Lamine Yamal (13.3m, BAR) is owned by 53.5% and tops the whole game at 10.8 this gameweek and 7.3 in the next. His program is [H]ALA → [A]ATM → [H]VIL. You almost certainly own him already. The useful decisions are the spots after him.
Fermin Lopez (7.3m, BAR) is the best value route into the Barcelona attack and its [H]ALA → [A]ATM → [H]VIL program: 8.3 → 5.3, 13.6 over two gameweeks, at only 7.5% ownership. Among midfielders, only Yamal, Raphinha and Jude Bellingham project more over the two weeks, and all three cost at least 3.5m more. Rodri (7.2m, BAR) is the steadier Barcelona option on the same run at 7.0 → 5.6. Barcelona's 7.12 expected goals over the three gameweeks makes a second or third Barcelona player easy to justify.
Raphinha (11.4m, BAR) is Barcelona's penalty taker and projects 9.8 → 6.0 on the same program. Jude Bellingham (10.8m, RMA) is the premium for Real Madrid's steadier run, [A]SAN → [A]VAL → [H]CEL, projected 8.5 → 5.9. He is the natural replacement for anyone moving on from an injured Real Madrid attacker (see the sell section).
Isco (5.4m, BET) is the budget midfielder of the gameweek. He is Real Betis' penalty taker, projects 7.4 against Malaga, and his 1.37 points per million is the best of any midfielder. His program, [H]MAL → [A]ELC → [A]SEV, is decent after the Malaga game, though at 4.7 in Gameweek 12 he is a strong one-week buy more than a long hold.
Two differentials are worth a look. Yan Diomande (8.2m, RMA) projects 7.4 → 4.5 on [A]SAN → [A]VAL → [H]CEL and is owned by only 4.2%. Edu Exposito (5.5m, ESP) is one of the few midfielders who project more next week than this week: 5.0 → 5.5 on [A]VIL → [H]COR → [A]ATH, because Espanyol host Deportivo La Coruna in Gameweek 12. He is owned by 3.6%. Abdessamad Ezzalzouli (7.6m, BET, 6.8 → 4.7, 2.5% owned) is the Betis alternative to Isco.
Best forwards for Sofascore LaLiga Gameweek 11
Kylian Mbappé (12.7m, RMA) is owned by 57.4% and projects 9.6 at Racing Santander, with 1.08 expected goals in that game alone. He is Real Madrid's penalty taker, and his program of [A]SAN → [A]VAL → [H]CEL keeps him a hold for the whole window.
Ante Budimir (7.3m, OSA) is the best forward below the premium price. He takes Osasuna's penalties and projects 5.3 → 4.7 on [A]COR → [H]ATH → [H]MAL, the second-highest two-week total of any forward at 10.0.
The two budget forwards are Arnaut Danjuma (5.5m, VAL) and Fer Nino (4.9m, ELC). Danjuma projects 4.9 → 4.3 on [A]ELC → [H]RMA → [A]RAY and is owned by 2.5%. The Real Madrid home game in Gameweek 12 is the tough one, and he still holds 4.3 there. Fer Nino is Elche's penalty taker, projects 4.7 → 4.4 on [H]VAL → [H]BET → [A]LEV and costs only 4.9m. His 0.96 points per million is the best of any forward this gameweek.
The forward rankings disagree too. Georges Mikautadze (6.8m, VIL) projects 4.9 this gameweek against Espanyol but 3.8 next. Roberto Fernández (5.6m, ESP) goes the other way: 4.1 → 4.8 on [A]VIL → [H]COR → [A]ATH. He is Espanyol's penalty taker, and the Deportivo La Coruna home game in Gameweek 12 makes him the better buy if you plan to keep the player. Starting XIs and minutes for every club are on the predicted lineups for Sofascore LaLiga.
Captain picks for Sofascore LaLiga Gameweek 11
The captain's points are doubled, so this is the biggest single decision of the gameweek.
- Lamine Yamal (13.3m, BAR): 10.8 projected against Alaves, the highest score in the game. Barcelona have an 85% win probability and 3.29 expected goals.
- Raphinha (11.4m, BAR): 9.8, also against Alaves, and he takes the penalties.
- Kylian Mbappé (12.7m, RMA): 9.6 at Racing Santander, with the highest goal expectation of any player this gameweek.
Jude Bellingham (8.5) and Fermin Lopez (8.3) complete the top five. Captaincy is also a reason to keep Yamal: he projects 7.3 at Atletico in Gameweek 12, still the highest score in the game ahead of Raphinha (6.0), Bellingham (5.9) and Mbappé (5.7). Then Barcelona host Villarreal and Real Madrid host Celta Vigo in Gameweek 13. Owning one Barcelona premium and Mbappé covers the captaincy for all three gameweeks.
Who to sell before Sofascore LaLiga Gameweek 11
Julián Álvarez (8.5m, ATM, 16.8% owned) is the clearest sell, and this is the gameweek to make it. [A]LEV is a good fixture, with Atletico on 2.03 expected goals, but even there he projects only 4.9, the same as Danjuma at 5.5m. Then [H]BAR follows and he drops to 2.9. Waiting a week means selling after his weakest fixture of the window instead of before it.
Vinicius Junior (11.1m, RMA, 14.4% owned) is listed as out until 6 November, so he misses [A]SAN, Real Madrid's best fixture of the window. He returns at [A]VAL projected 3.8 on limited minutes. Selling now and moving to Bellingham, who costs less and projects 8.5 → 5.9, gains you about ten points over the two gameweeks.
Jan Oblak (6.0m, ATM, 24.4% owned) is the most-owned keeper in the game. [A]LEV is a fine fixture for him (34% clean sheet chance), but Vallés costs the same and out-projects him in both gameweeks, 5.7 to 4.5 and 5.2 to 3.9. Barcelona's visit in Gameweek 12 (a 19.5% clean sheet chance) is the reason to make the switch now rather than later. Joan Garcia (6.7m, BAR, 15.6% owned) is the same case: 4.5 → 3.5, below both Vallés and Gulácsi even with the Alaves game.
Alejandro Grimaldo (6.9m, ATM, 23.6% owned) is not a sell. He projects 7.0 at Levante, second among defenders this gameweek, and [A]GET in Gameweek 13 carries a 40% clean sheet chance. The Barcelona week (4.4) is one weak week, so you can wait a round on him.
More Sofascore LaLiga analysis, including earlier gameweeks, is in our Sofascore LaLiga preview hub, and our strategy guides are collected in the fantasy guides section.
FAQ
Who should I captain in Sofascore LaLiga Gameweek 11?
Lamine Yamal. He projects 10.8 at home to Alaves, the highest score in the game, and Barcelona have an 85% win probability. Raphinha (9.8) and Kylian Mbappé (9.6) are the alternatives.
Which budget defenders are best for Sofascore LaLiga Gameweek 11?
Alex Freeman (5.1m, Villarreal) projects 6.4 this gameweek and 12.0 over Gameweeks 11 and 12, the most of any defender. He plays Espanyol and Getafe at home. Gabriel Suazo (5.1m, Sevilla) is the steadier alternative at 5.0 and 5.1.
Should I sell Julián Álvarez before Gameweek 11?
Yes. He projects 4.9 at Levante and 2.9 when Barcelona visit in Gameweek 12. Ante Budimir (7.3m) and Arnaut Danjuma (5.5m) both out-project him over the two gameweeks for less money.
Best differentials for Sofascore LaLiga Gameweek 11?
Alex Freeman (1.5% owned), Péter Gulácsi (2.1%), Yan Diomande (4.2%) and Edu Exposito (3.6%). All four have a good program over the next three gameweeks, not just one good fixture.
Which teams have the best fixtures for Sofascore LaLiga Gameweeks 11 to 13?
Barcelona (7.12 expected goals) and Real Madrid (6.71) have the best attacking runs. Osasuna have the best defensive run, with 1.36 expected clean sheets from Deportivo La Coruna away, then Athletic Club and Malaga at home.
This preview was written by TheFantasyTool AI.