Sofascore Bundesliga Gameweek 8: captain and best buys

Sofascore Bundesliga Gameweek 8 tips: best buys, captain picks and differentials

Sofascore Bundesliga Gameweek 8 opens on Friday 30 October with Elversberg at home to Mainz 05, and the headline fixture is Bayern München - Borussia Dortmund on Saturday. That game shapes the whole round: Bayern have the best three-gameweek program in the game, and Dortmund have the most uneven one. Their next three are a trip to Bayern, then two of the better fixtures anyone has. The transfer you make this week is a bet on Gameweeks 8 to 10, not just on Saturday. Below are the programs worth owning, the best buys in every position, the captaincy order for the next three gameweeks, and the players to sell before the deadline.

All numbers are our model's projected points (xP), refreshed a few hours before the deadline. The full pool is in the Sofascore Bundesliga player picks, and the solver's best squad for the round is on the Sofascore Bundesliga optimal teams page. Last week's analysis is in the Sofascore Bundesliga Gameweek 7 preview.

Gameweek 8 to 10 programs: whose next three gameweeks are worth owning

Bayern München lead both columns. [H]BVB → [A]M05 → [H]KOE adds up to 8.55 expected goals and 0.93 expected clean sheets, and the Köln game in Gameweek 10 is their best of the three (79% win probability, 3.13 expected goals). Bayern have created 3.44 xG per league game this season and allowed only 0.93. Leverkusen are a distant second for attack, with 6.66 expected goals from [H]STU → [A]KOE → [H]SCP. The Paderborn home game in Gameweek 10 gives them a 70% win probability.

For defence, look at Freiburg and RB Leipzig. Freiburg's [A]FCA → [H]FCU → [A]ELV is worth 0.90 expected clean sheets, the second-best run in the game, and Freiburg have allowed just 0.79 xG per game this season, the lowest in the league. Leipzig's [A]S04 → [H]FCA → [A]FCU is close behind on 0.89, with 5.75 expected goals going the other way.

Borussia Dortmund are the team to plan around rather than avoid. [A]FCB drops them to 1.28 expected goals and a 5% clean sheet chance. Straight after it, [H]ELV in Gameweek 9 carries a 44% clean sheet chance, the highest single number of any team in the next four gameweeks. Dortmund have kept four clean sheets in six league games and allowed 0.87 xG per game. Their assets are holds, not sells. At the bottom, Elversberg ([H]M05 → [A]BVB → [H]SCF) have the weakest attacking program at 3.37 expected goals. Schalke 04 and Paderborn have the fewest expected clean sheets (0.41 each), and Union Berlin and 1. FC Köln also sit under 3.80 expected goals. Köln still have to visit Bayern.

Every team has three fixtures in the window, so there are no blanks or doubles to adjust for. The table is sorted by 3-gameweek expected goals. The Sofascore Bundesliga schedule shows the same numbers further ahead.

The odds behind every row are on the Bundesliga market probabilities page. Our guide to fixture difficulty ratings explains how to weigh a run like Dortmund's.

Best goalkeepers for Sofascore Bundesliga Gameweek 8

Loris Karius (5.0m, S04) is the keeper to buy and keep. His program is [H]RBL → [A]HOF → [H]STU, and he projects 4.8 → 4.8 → 4.9, then 5.1 in Gameweek 11. His 14.5 over three gameweeks is the best of any goalkeeper, and so is his decay-weighted score. Schalke concede plenty of chances (1.93 xG against per game), so his points come from saves more than clean sheets. That is why the line stays flat whoever Schalke play.

Nahuel Noll (4.8m, SCP) is the cheaper alternative with the best goalkeeper points per million (0.98). On [A]BMG → [H]FRA → [A]B04 he projects 4.7 → 5.0 → 4.5, and only 4.0% own him. His Gameweek 11 home game against Schalke is the best single keeper score in the window (5.3), so he is a hold beyond the three. Finn Dahmen (5.7m, FCA) shares the top Gameweek 8 keeper score with Karius at 4.8. On [H]SCF → [A]RBL → [H]M05 he projects 4.8 → 4.6 → 5.0. The Leipzig trip is the weak week, and the two home games make up for it.

Want the keeper behind a top clean sheet program? Maarten Vandevoordt (5.9m, RBL) projects 4.6 → 4.9 → 4.8 on [A]S04 → [H]FCA → [A]FCU, and he pairs naturally with Willi Orban below, because the two of you double up on the same Leipzig clean sheet. Gregor Kobel owners (44.4%) should hold rather than sell: he projects 3.0 at Bayern, then 4.6 against Elversberg and 4.2 at Gladbach. If you have a second keeper, this is the week Kobel sits on your bench.

Best defenders for Sofascore Bundesliga Gameweek 8

Matthias Ginter (7.0m, SCF) is the defender to buy this week. On [A]FCA → [H]FCU → [A]ELV he projects 6.3 → 6.4 → 6.2, the best three-gameweek total of any defender (18.9). He is also Freiburg's penalty taker. Freiburg's defence is the stingiest in the league, and Ginter has added 1.01 xG and 0.47 xA of his own in 540 minutes. It is a steady program rather than a spiky one, which is what makes him a hold: he still projects 5.4 in Gameweek 11 against Leipzig.

Willi Orban (6.6m, RBL) is the value premium. He projects 6.2 → 6.1 → 5.6 over [A]S04 → [H]FCA → [A]FCU, has the second-best Gameweek 8 defender score, and is owned by only 8.7%. His 1.95 xG this season is a striker's number for a centre-back, so his ceiling is higher than the clean sheet alone. He is the Leipzig defender who plays every week, and that matters for the sells below.

Here the two rankings disagree. For Gameweek 8 alone Ginter and Orban lead. Over Gameweeks 9 to 11, Maximilian Mittelstaedt (7.1m, STU) is top on 19.8: he projects 5.1 at Leverkusen, then 6.9 → 6.5 → 6.4 across [H]WER → [A]S04 → [H]FRA. He is Stuttgart's penalty taker and has 1.91 xA this season, but his minutes are less secure than Ginter's. Nico Schlotterbeck (7.8m, BVB) has the same shape on [A]FCB → [H]ELV → [A]BMG: 4.5 at Bayern, then 7.3 → 6.2, and 5.7 in Gameweek 11. If you make one defensive move this week, make it Ginter. Schlotterbeck is the buy for Gameweek 9, because Gameweek 8 is too hard a fixture to bring him in for. Waldemar Anton owners (13.2%) hold for the same reason: 4.0 this week, then 6.6 → 5.7.

Budget defenders for Gameweek 8

Maximilian Rohr (4.2m, ELV) has the best points per million of any defender, at 1.38. His program is [H]M05 → [A]BVB → [H]SCF, and he projects 5.8 → 4.4 → 5.3. That is 15.5 over three, more than many defenders who cost 2m more. The two home games are the case for him, and the Dortmund trip is the soft spot. He is owned by just 2.5%. Nikola Katic (4.9m, S04) is the flattest line in the cheap bracket: 5.3 → 4.8 → 4.7 on [H]RBL → [A]HOF → [H]STU, then 4.8 again in Gameweek 11. Buy him and stop thinking about the slot. Felix Uduokhai (4.6m, FCU) projects 5.1 → 4.8 → 4.3 on [H]KOE → [A]SCF → [H]RBL and is owned by 0.4%.

Best midfielders for Sofascore Bundesliga Gameweek 8

Michael Olise is in 84.9% of squads, and he should be: 9.4 → 7.6 → 9.4 on [H]BVB → [A]M05 → [H]KOE, the highest projection in every one of the next four gameweeks. Owning him does not set you apart. The spots after him do.

Joshua Kimmich (9.9m, FCB) is the premium differential. Only 9.4% own him, and he projects 7.1 → 6.1 → 7.0 on [H]BVB → [A]M05 → [H]KOE, which makes him the third-highest scorer in the game this week, behind only Olise and Kane. His 20.2 over three gameweeks beats every midfielder except Olise. He has 2.85 xA this season. Next to Michael Olise and Harry Kane he fills the third Bayern slot, so it is a choice between him and a Bayern defender.

Ibrahim Maza (6.7m, B04) is the best mid-price buy. On [H]STU → [A]KOE → [H]SCP he projects 5.8 → 5.1 → 5.5, for 16.4 over three gameweeks. That is within 0.9 of teammate Aleix Garcia at 1.8m less. Maza's 0.89 xG plus xA per 90 is also the stronger underlying number (Garcia: 0.26). If you already own Garcia (11.3%), keep him: 6.0 → 5.4 → 5.9 is a perfectly good line. For a new buy, Maza is the better use of the money.

Antonio Nusa, the most-owned non-Bayern midfielder at 26.4%, is a hold for now. He projects 6.1 → 5.5 → 4.9 → 4.7, so the line falls each week. The time to move him on is Gameweek 10, not this one. Two low-owned alternatives: Ritsu Doan (6.5m, FRA) projects 5.5 at home to Hamburg, but then 4.5 → 4.3 on [A]SCP → [H]HOF. He is a one-gameweek pick at 1.6% ownership, and you sell him again after Gameweek 8. Aleksandar Pavlovic (6.7m, FCB) is the cheaper Bayern route at 3.8% ownership: 5.3 → 4.7 → 5.2 on [H]BVB → [A]M05 → [H]KOE. Ismael Saibari projects a little more (16.2 over three), but he is not a nailed starter.

Budget midfielders for Gameweek 8

Lukas Petkov (4.9m, ELV) is Elversberg's penalty taker and the best cheap midfielder over three gameweeks: 5.2 → 4.4 → 4.6 on [H]M05 → [A]BVB → [H]SCF, for 14.2. He has two goals, two assists and 0.54 xG plus xA per 90 this season. Bambase Conte (4.5m, HOF) is close behind on 14.1 and has the better points per million (1.13). He projects 5.1 → 4.9 → 4.1 across [A]WER → [H]S04 → [A]FRA, and only 2.4% own him. Hugo Bolin (5.1m, BMG) projects 5.5 at home to Paderborn, then fades to 4.6 → 3.8. Like Doan, he is a one-week pick.

Best forwards for Sofascore Bundesliga Gameweek 8

Harry Kane (87.6% owned) is the fixed point: 7.6 → 6.0 → 7.2, Bayern's penalty taker, and 1.34 xG plus xA per 90 this season. Like Olise, owning him only keeps you level with the field.

Marco Grüll (6.2m, WER) is the best forward buy after Kane. He projects 5.6 → 4.5 → 4.8 on [H]HOF → [A]STU → [H]HSV, then 5.1 against Gladbach in Gameweek 11, which gives him the best decay-weighted score of any non-Bayern forward. He has two goals and four assists, and only 9.9% own him. Igor Matanovic (6.3m, SCF) is the Freiburg route at 13.7% ownership: 5.4 → 4.5 → 4.5 on [A]FCA → [H]FCU → [A]ELV, built on 2.18 xG in 480 minutes. Derry Scherhant (5.1m, SCF) is the budget version on the same [A]FCA → [H]FCU → [A]ELV program. He projects 5.0 → 4.2 → 4.1, has the best points per million of any forward, and is owned by 1.0%.

Serhou Guirassy owners (22.3%) should hold. He projects 4.2 at Bayern, then 5.9 at home to Elversberg, his best number of the next four gameweeks, and he has 3.23 xG this season. Selling him now means selling just before the good week. Jonathan Burkardt (6.6m, FRA) is Frankfurt's penalty taker and projects 5.2 at home to Hamburg, but his line falls to 4.2 → 4.0 → 3.6 after that. He is a one-week pick, not a hold. Who starts up front for each club is on the Sofascore Bundesliga predicted lineups page.

Sofascore Bundesliga Gameweek 8 captain picks

Michael Olise (12.4m, FCB) is the captain, on [H]BVB → [A]M05 → [H]KOE. He projects 9.4 against Dortmund, 1.8 clear of anyone else, which is worth 18.8 with the armband. He has five goals and 2.97 xA this season. Harry Kane is the alternative at 7.6, and he is the one to pick if you want the penalty. Joshua Kimmich (7.1) is the third option, for anyone who owns him and wants to avoid the template captain.

The armband plan barely changes after this week. Olise tops the projections again in Gameweek 9 at Mainz (7.6, ahead of Schlotterbeck's 7.3 and Kane's 6.0) and in Gameweek 10 at home to Köln (9.4, against Kane's 7.2). He is your captain for three weeks running, and that is a big part of why he is worth his price. For more on picking an armband, see our guide on how to pick a fantasy captain.

Who to sell before Sofascore Bundesliga Gameweek 8

Luis Diaz (8.9m, FCB) is still in 17.3% of squads and projects 0 → 0 → 0 across Bayern's [H]BVB → [A]M05 → [H]KOE. He is listed out until 28 November, and his first projected return is 5.1 in Gameweek 11. Why now: that is three gameweeks of nothing from 8.9m, and the money buys Kimmich or Maza today.

Manuel Neuer (5.9m, FCB) is owned by 17.6% and projects 0.0 → 0.6 → 0.4 on the same [H]BVB → [A]M05 → [H]KOE run. The model has Jonas Urbig in Bayern's goal. Why now: Bayern's strongest clean sheet run is the next three gameweeks, and Neuer is projected to start none of them. Karius and Noll cost less and project 14 or more over the same stretch.

David Raum (6.8m, RBL) is owned by 15.5% but projects only 1.7 → 3.7 → 3.5 on [A]S04 → [H]FCA → [A]FCU, because his starting chance is low. Leipzig's program is good, so this is not a sell of the team. It is a swap inside it. Why now: Orban projects 6.2 in the same Schalke game and plays every week, and Leipzig's clean sheet run starts this gameweek. The same goes for Castello Lukeba (9.7%, 1.2 projected).

Kevin Diks (5.7m, BMG) is the sell-into-a-good-week case. Gladbach's [H]SCP is a fine fixture, and his 5.3 for it is a solid score from a penalty taker. After it come [A]HSV and [H]BVB, and he drops to 4.1 → 3.6. Why now: hold him and you collect the Paderborn points but keep the weak run behind them. Sell him now and the money goes into a defender who is already in place for Gameweeks 9 and 10. Yuito Suzuki (12.1% owned) has a similar shape: 4.0 in Gameweek 8 is his best of the next four, and then he falls to 3.2 → 3.4 as a part-time starter.

Deniz Undav (8.1m, STU, 12.4% owned) is a money move rather than a fixture call. Stuttgart's [A]B04 → [H]WER → [A]S04 is a decent run, yet he projects 3.7 → 3.9 → 3.6. Grüll projects more in every one of those gameweeks for 1.9m less. Nothing in Undav's program improves later, so there is no better week to make the swap than this one.

FAQ

Who should I captain in Sofascore Bundesliga Gameweek 8?

Michael Olise. He projects 9.4 at home to Dortmund, the highest in the game, ahead of Harry Kane (7.6) and Joshua Kimmich (7.1). He also tops the projections in Gameweeks 9 and 10, so he is the captain for the next three weeks.

Should I sell Luis Diaz before Sofascore Bundesliga Gameweek 8?

Yes. Luis Diaz projects zero in Gameweeks 8, 9 and 10 and is listed out until 28 November. His 8.9m is better spent on Joshua Kimmich (20.2 projected over the next three) or Ibrahim Maza (16.4).

Who are the best budget defenders for Sofascore Bundesliga Gameweek 8?

Maximilian Rohr (4.2m, Elversberg) has the best points per million of any defender and projects 15.5 over Gameweeks 8 to 10. Nikola Katic (4.9m, Schalke) is the steadiest option, at 4.7 to 5.3 every week.

What are the best differentials for Sofascore Bundesliga Gameweek 8?

Joshua Kimmich (9.4% owned) is the premium differential at 20.2 projected over three gameweeks. Willi Orban (8.7%) is the best-value defender, Derry Scherhant (1.0%) has the best points per million of any forward, and Bambase Conte (2.4%) is one of the best-value cheap midfielders.

Which Bundesliga teams have the best fixtures for the next three gameweeks?

Bayern München, on [H]BVB → [A]M05 → [H]KOE: 8.55 expected goals and 0.93 expected clean sheets, top on both. Freiburg (0.90) and RB Leipzig (0.89) have the next-best clean sheet runs, and Leverkusen the second-best attacking run (6.66 expected goals). Elversberg have the weakest attacking program, and Schalke 04 and Paderborn the fewest expected clean sheets.

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This preview was written by TheFantasyTool AI.