Sofascore Bundesliga Gameweek 7: captain and best buys
Sofascore Bundesliga Gameweek 7 preview: best buys, differentials and who to sell
Sofascore Bundesliga Gameweek 7 starts on Friday 23 October with Stuttgart hosting Mönchengladbach, and the transfer you make this week should be judged on Gameweeks 7 to 9, not on the weekend alone. Two programs stand out: RB Leipzig open a three-round run with the best clean-sheet odds in the league, and Bayern München carry the most expected goals over the same three rounds even with a home game against Dortmund in the middle. The obvious names are already owned. Michael Olise sits in 84.6% of squads and Harry Kane in 87.3%, so the ranking gains this week come from the spots after them.
Every number below is from our model. The full ranking for every player is on the Sofascore Bundesliga player picks page, and last week's calls are in the Sofascore Bundesliga Gameweek 6 preview.
Gameweek 7 to 9 programs: whose next three are worth owning
Leipzig have the best all-round run in the game: [H]ELV → [A]S04 → [H]FCA, worth 6.96 expected goals and 0.93 expected clean sheets over the three rounds. That clean-sheet total is the highest in the league, and it starts this week, when Leipzig are 72% favourites at home to Elversberg with a 32% clean-sheet chance. This is the program to buy into now rather than next week.
Bayern München lead on attack: [A]SCF → [H]BVB → [A]M05 adds up to 7.74 expected goals, the most of any team. Their defence is less reliable, with 0.77 expected clean sheets, so Bayern are an attacking target, not a defensive one. The Dortmund game in Gameweek 8 is the one to plan around, not to avoid. Bayern host Köln in Gameweek 10.
Dortmund ([H]FRA → [A]FCB → [H]ELV) and Stuttgart ([H]BMG → [A]B04 → [H]WER) both have two good home games either side of a hard away trip. That favours owners who keep their Dortmund assets through the Bayern week. For Stuttgart, the Mönchengladbach game is their best chance of a win (68%) and the Werder game their best clean-sheet chance (36%).
At the other end, Elversberg's [A]RBL → [H]M05 → [A]BVB is the worst three-round run in the game: 3.30 expected goals and 0.30 expected clean sheets. Werder Bremen ([A]M05 → [H]HOF → [A]STU) have the second-lowest expected goals at 3.43 and only 0.47 expected clean sheets. Augsburg have two home games before a trip to Leipzig, so they are a short-term target (see the defenders below). Kickoff times and home/away for every club are on the Sofascore Bundesliga schedule, and the bookmaker numbers behind these figures are on the market probabilities page.
| Team | Fixture | Win probability | Expected goals | Clean sheet | Program | 3-round xG | 3-round CS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FCB | [A]SCF | 64% | 2.71 | 24% | [A]SCF → [H]BVB → [A]M05 | 7.74 | 0.77 |
| RBL | [H]ELV | 72% | 2.85 | 32% | [H]ELV → [A]S04 → [H]FCA | 6.96 | 0.93 |
| BVB | [H]FRA | 65% | 2.54 | 29% | [H]FRA → [A]FCB → [H]ELV | 6.59 | 0.78 |
| STU | [H]BMG | 68% | 2.72 | 29% | [H]BMG → [A]B04 → [H]WER | 6.37 | 0.78 |
| B04 | [A]HOF | 42% | 1.87 | 18% | [A]HOF → [H]STU → [A]KOE | 5.83 | 0.67 |
| HOF | [H]B04 | 35% | 1.71 | 15% | [H]B04 → [A]WER → [H]S04 | 5.24 | 0.77 |
| M05 | [H]WER | 57% | 2.04 | 31% | [H]WER → [A]ELV → [H]FCB | 5.07 | 0.68 |
| FCA | [H]FCU | 52% | 1.92 | 28% | [H]FCU → [H]SCF → [A]RBL | 4.47 | 0.65 |
Sorted by 3-round expected goals. All eight teams have three fixtures in the window.
Best goalkeepers for Gameweek 7
Maarten Vandevoordt (5.8m, RBL) is the best keeper over the three rounds: [H]ELV → [A]S04 → [H]FCA, projected 5.2 → 5.0 → 5.1, for 15.3 points. That is the highest three-round total among goalkeepers. His run is flat, so you can buy him and leave the position alone. He is owned by 14.0%.
Finn Dahmen (5.6m, FCA) matches Vandevoordt this week at 5.2, and his [H]FCU → [H]SCF → [A]RBL run gives him 5.2 → 5.2 → 4.5. Two home games make him a good two-round pick. The Leipzig trip is why Vandevoordt is the better long-term buy.
For a cheaper keeper, Loris Karius (4.9m, S04) projects 4.7 → 4.7 → 4.5 across [A]KOE → [H]RBL → [A]HOF, and his projection stays between 4.5 and 4.8 through Gameweek 11. Nahuel Noll (4.7m, SCP) is the differential: 4.7 → 4.5 → 4.6 over [H]HSV → [A]BMG → [H]FRA, with only 3.7% ownership and the best points per million of any keeper this week (1.00).
Best defenders for Gameweek 7
This is where this round's ranking and the three-round ranking disagree. David Raum (7.0m, RBL) is the top-projected defender this week at 7.3, but Willi Orban (6.6m, RBL) scores more over the program: [H]ELV → [A]S04 → [H]FCA gives Orban 7.1 → 6.4 → 6.6 (20.1) against Raum's 7.3 → 5.9 → 6.4 (19.6). Orban also costs 0.4m less. If you are buying one Leipzig defender to keep, buy Orban. Raum, at 16.1% ownership, is the one most managers already have. The game caps you at three players per club, so choose between Orban, Raum, Vandevoordt and the Leipzig attackers below.
Nico Schlotterbeck (7.7m, BVB) runs [H]FRA → [A]FCB → [H]ELV and projects 6.7 → 4.7 → 7.1. The Bayern week costs him two points, but the home games either side make him the third-best defender over the window (18.5), and only 5.5% own him. Alphonso Davies (6.4m, FCB) is the Bayern defender who rises later: 5.7 → 5.4 → 5.3, then 6.6 when Köln visit in Gameweek 10.
One to buy next week rather than now: Matthias Ginter (7.1m, SCF). Freiburg host Bayern this week and he projects 5.1, but after that his program is [A]FCA → [H]FCU → [A]ELV and his projection rises to 6.2 → 6.7 → 6.5. Our data also lists him as Freiburg's penalty taker. Bring him in for Gameweek 8.
Budget defenders for Gameweek 7
Nikola Katic (4.8m, S04) is the best-value defender to buy and keep. Over [A]KOE → [H]RBL → [A]HOF he projects 5.9 → 5.7 → 5.3, and he stays between 5.3 and 5.9 through Gameweek 11. Schalke's three-round clean-sheet total is only 0.45, but his projection barely moves with the fixture. He equals or beats Edmond Tapsoba, who costs 2.2m more, in each of the next five rounds. He is owned by 5.1%.
Calvin Brackelmann (4.6m, FCA) is a two-round pick with 0.7% ownership. Augsburg's [H]FCU → [H]SCF → [A]RBL run gives him 5.9 → 5.5 → 4.2. His 1.28 points per million is the best of any defender projected over 4 this week, and he has a nailed 84 projected minutes. Sell him before the Leipzig trip in Gameweek 9. Chrislain Matsima (5.6m, FCA) is the more expensive version of the same idea at 6.2 → 5.8 → 4.5. Felix Uduokhai (4.6m, FCU) goes the other way: 4.9 → 5.6 → 5.1 over [A]FCA → [H]KOE → [A]SCF, with Gameweek 8 his best week.
Best midfielders for Gameweek 7
Olise is on 84.6% of teams and needs no selling. Michael Olise (12.3m, FCB) projects 9.1 → 8.5 → 8.2 over [A]SCF → [H]BVB → [A]M05, and 10.2 in Gameweek 10. Owning him protects your rank. It does not gain you any.
Antonio Nusa (7.3m, RBL) is the best midfield buy after him: 7.4 → 6.3 → 6.5 over [H]ELV → [A]S04 → [H]FCA, the second-highest three-round total in midfield (20.2). He projects 0.36 goals and 0.17 assists against Elversberg, and 25.7% already own him. Luis Diaz (8.7m, FCB) is the Bayern alternative: 6.7 → 6.3 → 6.1, then 7.7 in Gameweek 10, with 0.40 expected goals this week. Joshua Kimmich (9.9m, FCB) scores slightly more over the three rounds (19.6 against 19.1), but he costs 1.2m more.
Ismael Saibari (7.0m, FCB) is the Bayern differential at 5.8% ownership: 5.9 → 5.5 → 5.3, and 6.8 against Köln in Gameweek 10. The risk is minutes. His 62 projected minutes are the lowest of the Bayern midfielders listed here, so check the Sofascore Bundesliga predicted lineups before the deadline. Felix Nmecha (6.8m, BVB) projects 6.4 → 5.0 → 6.0, so he follows the same Dortmund pattern as Schlotterbeck.
Budget midfielders for Gameweek 7
Laurin Curda (4.6m, SCP) is the flat-program budget pick. Over [H]HSV → [A]BMG → [H]FRA he projects 5.2 → 4.8 → 4.8, he stays between 4.4 and 5.2 through Gameweek 11, and only 0.8% own him. Brajan Gruda (5.4m, RBL) has the bigger ceiling this week at 6.1 against Elversberg, but he drops to 4.6 → 4.5 at [A]S04 → [H]FCA and has only 58 projected minutes, so treat him as a one-week pick. Bilal El Khannouss (6.5m, STU) is similar: 6.3 at home to Mönchengladbach, then 4.5 → 4.8.
Best forwards for Gameweek 7
Kane stays: Harry Kane (12.1m, FCB) is on penalties and projects 6.7 → 6.3 → 6.1 over [A]SCF → [H]BVB → [A]M05. For your other forward spots, Christopher Nkunku (7.7m, RBL) is the differential at 5.6% ownership. He projects 6.5 → 5.2 → 5.4 over [H]ELV → [A]S04 → [H]FCA, with 0.46 expected goals this week. Over three rounds he is level with Serhou Guirassy (17.1 against 17.3), and he costs 0.9m less.
Serhou Guirassy (8.6m, BVB) is a hold for the 23.6% who own him: 6.4 → 4.5 → 6.4 over [H]FRA → [A]FCB → [H]ELV. He has 0.70 expected goals against Frankfurt, the second-highest in the round. Igor Matanovic (6.4m, SCF) is the steady option at 5.6 → 5.3 → 5.2 over [H]FCB → [A]FCA → [H]FCU, and 5.2 again in Gameweek 10.
For cheaper forwards, Romulo Cruz (5.9m, RBL) projects 6.0 → 4.7 → 4.9 and is listed as a Leipzig penalty taker in our data. Sheraldo Becker (5.7m, M05) projects 5.8 → 5.4 → 4.3 over [H]WER → [A]ELV → [H]FCB, which makes him a two-round pick to sell before Bayern visit. The deep differential is Marius Bülter (5.0m, KOE) at 0.4% ownership: 5.0 at home to Schalke, then 4.0 → 4.0 over [A]FCU → [H]B04.
Captain picks for Gameweek 7
Michael Olise (12.3m, FCB) is the captain. He projects 9.1 at Freiburg, 1.7 more than anyone else in the game, and he has 0.45 expected goals and 0.32 expected assists. He also tops the captaincy list in Gameweek 8 (8.5 at home to Dortmund) and peaks at 10.2 against Köln in Gameweek 10. If you are saving the Triple Captain token, that Köln game is the strongest single projection in the five-round window.
Antonio Nusa (7.4 at home to Elversberg) and David Raum (7.3) are the alternatives, and both play in the round's most lopsided match. Captaining Kane (6.7) instead of Olise costs 2.4 projected points before the multiplier.
Who to sell before Gameweek 7
Dayot Upamecano (7.0m, FCB), owned by 14.0%, is the defender to swap out. [A]SCF is a decent fixture with Bayern 64% favourites, but Bayern's 0.77 expected clean sheets over [A]SCF → [H]BVB → [A]M05 leave him at 4.8 → 4.6 → 4.6. Willi Orban costs 0.4m less and projects 20.1 against Upamecano's 14.0. Why now: Leipzig's run starts this week with the best clean-sheet odds in the round. Wait a week and you miss the best game of Orban's program.
Edmond Tapsoba (7.0m, B04), owned by 12.7%, is the other expensive defender to replace. He projects 4.3 → 4.5 → 4.6 over [A]HOF → [H]STU → [A]KOE, and Katic, 2.2m cheaper, equals or beats him in each of the next five rounds. Why now: the Hoffenheim game is Leverkusen's worst fixture of the three (42% to win, 18% clean sheet), so selling now skips it.
Gregor Kobel (5.9m, BVB) is the most-owned keeper at 44.6%. [H]FRA is a perfectly good fixture (29% clean sheet), and his 4.0 is a fair return. But the trip to Bayern follows and he drops to 3.1, which leaves him at 11.6 over the three rounds against Vandevoordt's 15.3 for a slightly lower price. This is a real choice: you can wait a round on this one. If you have the transfer spare, though, swapping before the Bayern week gets you the best of Leipzig's run.
Plan to sell Deniz Undav (8.1m, STU) next week, not this week. He projects 6.2 at home to Mönchengladbach, which is worth keeping for, but then drops to 3.8 → 4.5 over [A]B04 → [H]WER. So the sale belongs in Gameweek 8.
Two owned players are flagged unavailable: Manuel Neuer (18.4%), who is projected for zero in every round through Gameweek 11 while Jonas Urbig is projected to start in goal, and Yuito Suzuki (12.5%), who projects 1.9 → 2.1 → 2.8. Neither projects to return meaningful points in the next three rounds, so there is no reason to wait on them.
Best Quick Fix team for Gameweek 7
If you play the Quick Fix token (Sofascore's Free Hit) this week, the best squad by Gameweek 7 projection is:
- GK: Finn Dahmen (5.6m, 5.2), Nahuel Noll (4.7m, 4.7)
- DEF: David Raum (7.0m, 7.3), Willi Orban (6.6m, 7.1), Chrislain Matsima (5.6m, 6.2), Calvin Brackelmann (4.6m, 5.9), Nikola Katic (4.8m, 5.9)
- MID: Michael Olise (12.3m, 9.1), Antonio Nusa (7.3m, 7.4), Luis Diaz (8.7m, 6.7), Felix Nmecha (6.8m, 6.4), Bilal El Khannouss (6.5m, 6.3)
- FWD: Serhou Guirassy (8.6m, 6.4), Sheraldo Becker (5.7m, 5.8), Marius Bülter (5.0m, 5.0)
Olise is the captain. Gameweek 7 is a normal single round with nine fixtures, so most managers are better off saving the token. The live optimum, recalculated as projections update, is on the Sofascore Bundesliga optimal teams page. More previews for this game are in the Sofascore Bundesliga preview hub.
FAQ
Who should I captain in Sofascore Bundesliga Gameweek 7?
Michael Olise. He projects 9.1 at Freiburg, 1.7 more than any other player, and he is also the top captain option in Gameweek 8 (8.5 at home to Dortmund). Antonio Nusa (7.4) and David Raum (7.3) are the alternatives.
Which budget defenders are best for Sofascore Bundesliga Gameweek 7?
Nikola Katic (4.8m) is the one to buy and keep: 5.9 → 5.7 → 5.3 over [A]KOE → [H]RBL → [A]HOF, and flat through Gameweek 11. Calvin Brackelmann (4.6m) is the two-round pick for Augsburg's two home games, with 5.9 → 5.5, before the Leipzig trip.
Should I sell Gregor Kobel before Sofascore Bundesliga Gameweek 7?
It is optional. Kobel's 4.0 against Frankfurt is fine, but he drops to 3.1 at Bayern in Gameweek 8. Maarten Vandevoordt (5.8m) projects 15.3 over the next three rounds against Kobel's 11.6, so swap now if you have a transfer spare.
Best differentials for Sofascore Bundesliga Gameweek 7?
Christopher Nkunku (5.6% owned) projects 6.5 → 5.2 → 5.4 over Leipzig's run. Nico Schlotterbeck (5.5%) projects 6.7 → 4.7 → 7.1, and Laurin Curda (0.8%) is a flat 5.2 → 4.8 → 4.8 budget midfielder.
Which Bundesliga teams have the best fixtures for Gameweeks 7 to 9?
RB Leipzig: [H]ELV → [A]S04 → [H]FCA gives them 6.96 expected goals and 0.93 expected clean sheets, the best defensive total in the league. Bayern lead on attack with 7.74 expected goals over [A]SCF → [H]BVB → [A]M05.
This preview was written by TheFantasyTool AI.