Sofascore Bundesliga Gameweek 6: captain and best buys
Sofascore Bundesliga Gameweek 6 preview: best buys, captain picks and differentials
Sofascore Bundesliga Gameweek 6 opens on Friday 16 October with Frankfurt - Köln, and the headline fixture is Bayern München - RB Leipzig on Saturday evening. With one free transfer a week, the move you make before this deadline has to pay over the next three Gameweeks, not just this one. Bayern have the best three-round run in the game by a distance, Stuttgart and Dortmund follow, and Dortmund's trip to Bayern in Gameweek 8 is what decides how their assets should be held. This preview covers who to buy, who to captain, the hidden gems and who to sell, using the model's projected points for Gameweeks 6 to 8. Last week's analysis is in the Sofascore Bundesliga Gameweek 5 preview.
Gameweek 6 to 8 programs: whose next three rounds are worth owning
Bayern's [H]RBL → [A]SCF → [H]BVB is in a league of its own: 8.84 expected goals across the three, almost two and a half goals clear of anyone else. The Dortmund game in Gameweek 8 is the hardest of the three, but two very good fixtures in front of it make this the program to plan around. Stuttgart ([A]HSV → [H]BMG → [A]B04, 6.36 xG), Dortmund ([A]FCU → [H]FRA → [A]FCB, 6.03) and Leverkusen ([H]SCF → [A]HOF → [H]STU, 5.97) are the next attacking targets. Stuttgart and Dortmund both front-load their run: the good weeks are Gameweeks 6 and 7, and both go away to a top side in Gameweek 8.
For defence, look at Mainz and Augsburg. Mainz's [A]S04 → [H]WER → [A]ELV is only mid-table for goals, but its 0.83 expected clean sheets matches Bayern for the best figure in the game. Augsburg's [A]ELV → [H]FCU → [H]SCF is next on 0.73, and that is where the best-value defensive assets sit (below). At the bottom, Freiburg ([A]B04 → [H]FCB → [A]FCA) and Union Berlin ([H]BVB → [A]FCA → [H]KOE) have the weakest attacking runs. RB Leipzig have a 3% clean-sheet chance at Bayern this week, but [H]ELV → [A]S04 behind it is much better, which is why their assets are holds rather than sells.
The table is sorted by 3-round expected goals. The first five columns are Gameweek 6 only; the last three cover Gameweeks 6 to 8, and every team has three fixtures in the window. Check the full Sofascore Bundesliga schedule for kick-off times, and the market probabilities for the odds behind these numbers.
| Team | Fixture | Win probability | Expected goals | Clean sheet | Program | 3-round xG | 3-round CS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FCB | [H]RBL | 79% | 3.44 | 29% | [H]RBL → [A]SCF → [H]BVB | 8.84 | 0.83 |
| STU | [A]HSV | 54% | 2.15 | 24% | [A]HSV → [H]BMG → [A]B04 | 6.36 | 0.66 |
| BVB | [A]FCU | 58% | 2.12 | 31% | [A]FCU → [H]FRA → [A]FCB | 6.03 | 0.68 |
| B04 | [H]SCF | 55% | 2.04 | 29% | [H]SCF → [A]HOF → [H]STU | 5.97 | 0.69 |
| RBL | [A]FCB | 9% | 1.23 | 3% | [A]FCB → [H]ELV → [A]S04 | 5.92 | 0.65 |
| M05 | [A]S04 | 42% | 1.65 | 24% | [A]S04 → [H]WER → [A]ELV | 5.41 | 0.83 |
| FRA | [H]KOE | 49% | 2.11 | 20% | [H]KOE → [A]BVB → [H]HSV | 5.18 | 0.58 |
| HOF | [A]BMG | 46% | 1.94 | 21% | [A]BMG → [H]B04 → [A]WER | 5.17 | 0.65 |
| FCA | [A]ELV | 37% | 1.66 | 18% | [A]ELV → [H]FCU → [H]SCF | 4.97 | 0.73 |
| KOE | [A]FRA | 28% | 1.58 | 12% | [A]FRA → [H]S04 → [A]FCU | 4.64 | 0.64 |
| BMG | [H]HOF | 30% | 1.55 | 14% | [H]HOF → [A]STU → [H]SCP | 4.55 | 0.50 |
| WER | [H]SCP | 54% | 1.99 | 28% | [H]SCP → [A]M05 → [H]HOF | 4.42 | 0.64 |
| ELV | [H]FCA | 39% | 1.72 | 19% | [H]FCA → [A]RBL → [H]M05 | 4.13 | 0.43 |
| SCP | [A]WER | 23% | 1.26 | 14% | [A]WER → [H]HSV → [A]BMG | 4.13 | 0.53 |
| HSV | [H]STU | 24% | 1.41 | 12% | [H]STU → [A]SCP → [A]FRA | 4.11 | 0.47 |
| S04 | [H]M05 | 32% | 1.42 | 19% | [H]M05 → [A]KOE → [H]RBL | 4.01 | 0.51 |
| SCF | [A]B04 | 22% | 1.24 | 13% | [A]B04 → [H]FCB → [A]FCA | 3.83 | 0.44 |
| FCU | [H]BVB | 20% | 1.18 | 12% | [H]BVB → [A]FCA → [H]KOE | 3.82 | 0.55 |
Best goalkeepers for Gameweek 6
Finn Dahmen (5.6m, FCA) is the keeper to buy, and the round and the horizon agree on him. Augsburg's [A]ELV → [H]FCU → [H]SCF gives him 5.0 → 5.4 → 5.3: the top goalkeeper projection this week and 15.7 points over three Gameweeks, more than a point clear of the next keeper. Only 9.1% of managers own him.
Loris Karius (4.9m, S04) is the value alternative. Schalke's [H]M05 → [A]KOE → [H]RBL is not a glamorous program, but he projects a flat 4.9 → 4.8 → 4.8 for 14.5 points at 0.7m less than Dahmen. Nahuel Noll (4.7m, SCP) ([A]WER → [H]HSV → [A]BMG, 4.5 → 4.8 → 4.6) is the cheapest keeper worth owning, at 3.7% ownership.
Maarten Vandevoordt (5.7m, RBL) is where the round and the horizon split. He projects only 3.8 at Bayern this week, then 5.3 and 5.1 as Leipzig's program turns to [H]ELV → [A]S04, which puts him third among keepers over the three Gameweeks. He is a buy for Gameweek 7, not now.
Best defenders for Gameweek 6
Maximilian Mittelstaedt (7.2m, STU) is the best defender in the game on both measures: 7.2 points this week, the third-highest projection of any player, and 20.5 over three Gameweeks, 2.4 points clear of the next defender. Stuttgart's [A]HSV → [H]BMG → [A]B04 gives him 7.2 → 7.8 → 5.5, and Gameweek 9 at home to Werder goes back up to 7.3. At 10.8% ownership he is still not a template pick, and the Gladbach week is the reason to have him in before Gameweek 7 rather than after it.
Nikola Katic (4.7m, S04) is the best-value defender in the game. Schalke's [H]M05 → [A]KOE → [H]RBL gives him 6.4 → 6.0 → 5.7 for 18.1 points, second only to Mittelstaedt among defenders over the three Gameweeks and ahead of Miguel Gutiérrez (16.7) at 1.3m less. He is in only 4.7% of teams, and pairing him with Loris Karius doubles up on the same Schalke clean sheets.
The Augsburg stack is the other value play. Chrislain Matsima (5.6m, FCA) goes 5.6 → 6.1 → 5.7 on [A]ELV → [H]FCU → [H]SCF for 17.4, the third-best defender total in the game. Calvin Brackelmann (4.6m, FCA) on the same program projects 5.4 → 5.9 → 5.3 for 16.6 and is owned by 0.6% of managers. Either one pairs with Finn Dahmen. For a cheap fifth defender, Maximilian Rohr (4.2m, ELV) projects 6.0 → 4.5 → 5.7 through Elversberg's [H]FCA → [A]RBL → [H]M05. The Leipzig away game is the weak one, but 16.2 points is the best return in the cheapest price band, at 1.5% ownership.
Two defenders where the round and the horizon disagree. Nico Schlotterbeck (7.6m, BVB) projects 5.9 this week, but Dortmund's [A]FCU → [H]FRA → [A]FCB gives him 5.9 → 5.6 → 4.0, and the Bayern trip pulls his three-round total down to 15.5, well below Katic at 2.9m less. Willi Orban (6.6m, RBL) is the reverse: only 4.1 at Bayern this week, then 6.9 and 6.1 as Leipzig's [A]FCB → [H]ELV → [A]S04 turns, for 17.1 points. He is a buy for Gameweek 7, not now. The same logic says hold David Raum through his 2.7 at Bayern: 6.3 follows at home to Elversberg.
Best midfielders for Gameweek 6
Michael Olise is the obvious one. At 84.4% ownership nearly everyone has him, and he leads the game with 9.3 points this week and 9.3 → 8.5 → 7.4 over Bayern's program. If you do not own him, he is the first transfer to make. The real decisions are in the spots after him.
Luis Diaz (8.8m, FCB) is the second Bayern midfielder to own, on both the round and the horizon. He projects 7.0 → 6.4 → 5.6 for 19.0 points over [H]RBL → [A]SCF → [H]BVB, ahead of Joshua Kimmich (18.2), who costs 1.1m more. 18.6% of managers own Diaz, so he protects your rank rather than wins it.
Can Uzun (6.8m, FRA) is the hidden gem of the round. Frankfurt's [H]KOE → [A]BVB → [H]HSV gives him 6.7 → 5.0 → 5.6: third among midfielders this week, 17.3 points over three Gameweeks, and only 8.9% ownership. The model has him starting with 81 projected minutes against Köln. The Dortmund away game dips, but two home games either side of it make the program a buy.
Nadiem Amiri (7.9m, M05) is the midfield route into Mainz's [A]S04 → [H]WER → [A]ELV: 5.8 → 6.1 → 5.4 for 17.3 points, level with Uzun over the three Gameweeks and owned by 9.6%. For Leverkusen's [H]SCF → [A]HOF → [H]STU, Ibrahim Maza (6.6m, B04) is the cheaper way in: 5.9 → 5.5 → 5.6 for 17.0, close to Aleix Garcia's 17.4 at 1.9m less. Antonio Nusa (7.2m, RBL) is the hold: 5.3 at Bayern this week, but 7.1 at home to Elversberg in Gameweek 7, for 5.3 → 7.1 → 5.8 on [A]FCB → [H]ELV → [A]S04 and 18.2 points, joint-third among all midfielders over the horizon.
The budget picks are Lukas Petkov (4.7m, ELV), who projects 5.6 → 4.7 → 4.8 through Elversberg's [H]FCA → [A]RBL → [H]M05, and Anthony Caci (5.3m, M05), listed as a midfielder and projecting 5.1 → 5.3 → 5.0 on Mainz's [A]S04 → [H]WER → [A]ELV. Petkov totals 15.1 points at 4.0% ownership, Caci 15.4 at 0.9%. Chuki (4.6m, WER) is the one-round option: 5.9 this week with Werder at home to Paderborn, but [A]M05 → [H]HOF drops him to 4.2 and 4.2, so plan to move him on after Gameweek 6. Check the Sofascore Bundesliga predicted lineups before the deadline to confirm they start.
Best forwards for Gameweek 6
Harry Kane is at 87.2% ownership and projects 7.7 → 6.9 → 6.2. Like Olise, he is a hold, not news. Serhou Guirassy (24.0% owned) is also a hold: 6.0 → 6.4 → 4.6 on [A]FCU → [H]FRA → [A]FCB, with 6.6 at home to Elversberg in Gameweek 9 after the Bayern dip. The forward decisions are about the cheaper spots.
Marco Grüll (5.9m, WER) is the best forward outside Kane this week, with 6.6 points and Werder at home to Paderborn. His program [H]SCP → [A]M05 → [H]HOF then drops him to 5.1 and 5.1, which still adds up to 16.8 over three Gameweeks, the joint-third best forward total, for 7.9% ownership. Sheraldo Becker (5.7m, M05) matches that 16.8 with a flatter shape: Mainz's [A]S04 → [H]WER → [A]ELV gives him 5.4 → 5.9 → 5.5, and he is owned by 5.7%. Take Grüll for the bigger Gameweek 6, Becker if you want the steadier hold. Phillip Tietz (5.2m, M05), on the same [A]S04 → [H]WER → [A]ELV program, projects 4.6 → 4.9 → 4.7 and is in only 2.0% of teams.
Igor Matanovic (6.5m, SCF) is the steady option. Freiburg's program is weak, but he holds 5.7 → 5.4 → 5.3 on [A]B04 → [H]FCB → [A]FCA for 16.4 points. For a deep differential, Marius Bülter (5.0m, KOE) projects 5.0 → 4.8 → 3.9 on [A]FRA → [H]S04 → [A]FCU and is owned by 0.4%.
Captain picks for Gameweek 6
Michael Olise is the captain. His 9.3 projected points against RB Leipzig are 1.6 clear of the next option, and Leipzig have a 9% chance of winning the game. Harry Kane (7.7), Maximilian Mittelstaedt (7.2), Luis Diaz (7.0) and Can Uzun (6.7) are the alternatives, but none of them comes close to his ceiling.
The plan does not change soon. Olise also tops the projections in Gameweek 7 ([A]SCF, 8.5) and Gameweek 8 ([H]BVB, 7.4), so owning him gives you the captain for all three rounds. That is the strongest argument for him beyond this week. The realistic differential captain is Mittelstaedt, who projects 7.8 at home to Gladbach in Gameweek 7, second only to Olise that week.
Who to sell before Gameweek 6
Gregor Kobel (6.0m, BVB) is the sell, and this is the round to do it. Dortmund's [A]FCU is a fine fixture with a 31% clean-sheet chance. But he projects 4.2 → 4.2 → 3.3 over [A]FCU → [H]FRA → [A]FCB, and the Bayern trip in Gameweek 8 leaves Dortmund with an 8% clean-sheet chance. Finn Dahmen outscores him in each of the next three Gameweeks for 0.4m less, and Loris Karius does the same for 1.1m less, so the swap gains points every week it is in place. 44.8% of managers own Kobel, the most of any goalkeeper.
Yuito Suzuki (6.1m, SCF) is the other move to make now. He is owned by 15.6% of managers, but the model has him on the bench for [A]B04 with 20 projected minutes, and he projects 1.5 → 2.1 → 2.7 over [A]B04 → [H]FCB → [A]FCA. That is 6.3 points over three Gameweeks, less than half of what Lukas Petkov returns at 1.4m less. Nothing in Freiburg's program brings his minutes back, so there is no better round to sell than this one.
Deniz Undav (8.1m, STU) is the forward to move, but you can wait a round on this one. He projects 4.3 → 5.6 → 3.2 on [A]HSV → [H]BMG → [A]B04, and his best fixture is Gameweek 7 at home to Gladbach, before Leverkusen away in Gameweek 8. He is owned by 12.9% and costs 2.2m more than Marco Grüll and 2.4m more than Sheraldo Becker, and both outscore him over three Gameweeks. Sell him after the Gladbach game.
Niclas Füllkrug (6.1m, WER) is the other one to plan for. Werder at home to Paderborn is a decent fixture, and 5.1 points is a reasonable return. But [A]M05 → [H]HOF follows and he drops to 3.8 and 3.8, with 3.4 at Stuttgart in Gameweek 9. Keep him this week if you have bigger moves to make, then sell before Gameweek 7. 10.4% of managers own him.
Julian Ryerson (15.7% owned) is out for Gameweek 6 and projects zero this round, but he is due back before Dortmund host Frankfurt in Gameweek 7, where he projects 5.0. Do not spend this week's transfer on him; the Bayern trip in Gameweek 8 (3.0) is the point to reassess.
Best Quick Fix (Free Hit) team for Gameweek 6
If you are playing Sofascore's Quick Fix token this week, the squad that maximises Gameweek 6 alone, inside the solver's spending ceiling and the three-per-club limit, is a 4-4-2: Finn Dahmen in goal; Maximilian Mittelstaedt, Nikola Katic, Miguel Gutiérrez and Maximilian Rohr in defence; Michael Olise, Luis Diaz, Can Uzun and Aleix Garcia in midfield; Harry Kane and Marco Grüll up front, with Olise as captain. Loris Karius is the second keeper, and the remaining bench spots go to the cheapest available players. That XI projects 74.1 points before the captaincy bonus. Gameweek 6 has no blanks or doubles, though, so this is not an obvious week to spend the token. The exact optimum, updated live, is on the optimal teams for Sofascore Bundesliga page.
Gameweek 6 transfer summary
With one free transfer: replace Gregor Kobel with Finn Dahmen or Loris Karius, or move Yuito Suzuki on if he is in your squad. With two, add Maximilian Mittelstaedt or Can Uzun to cover Stuttgart's and Frankfurt's programs. Differentials worth a look: Nikola Katic, Calvin Brackelmann, Maximilian Rohr, Anthony Caci and Sheraldo Becker, all under 6% owned. For the full ranking by position see the Sofascore Bundesliga player picks. All our previews for the game are in the Sofascore Bundesliga preview hub.
FAQ
Who should I captain in Sofascore Bundesliga Gameweek 6?
Michael Olise is the captain, with 9.3 projected points at home to RB Leipzig. Harry Kane (7.7) and Maximilian Mittelstaedt (7.2) are the alternatives, and Olise also tops the projections in Gameweeks 7 and 8.
Which budget defenders are best for Sofascore Bundesliga Gameweek 6?
Nikola Katic (4.7m) projects 18.1 points over Gameweeks 6 to 8, and Calvin Brackelmann (4.6m) 16.6 on Augsburg's program. Maximilian Rohr (4.2m) is the cheapest defender worth owning at 16.2 points.
Should I sell Kobel before Sofascore Bundesliga Gameweek 6?
Yes. Gregor Kobel projects 4.2 → 4.2 → 3.3 over the next three Gameweeks, with Dortmund away at Bayern in Gameweek 8. Finn Dahmen and Loris Karius both cost less and outscore him in each of the next three rounds.
Who are the best differentials for Sofascore Bundesliga Gameweek 6?
Can Uzun (8.9% owned) projects 6.7 points this week and 17.3 over Gameweeks 6 to 8. Nikola Katic, Calvin Brackelmann and Anthony Caci are deeper differentials, all owned by under 5%.
This preview was written by TheFantasyTool AI.