Sofascore Bundesliga Gameweek 5: captain and best buys

Sofascore Bundesliga Gameweek 5 tips: best buys, differentials and who to sell

Sofascore Bundesliga Gameweek 5 opens on Friday evening with Dortmund at home to Werder Bremen, and the other eight games follow on Saturday and Sunday. The transfer happens in Gameweek 5, but the case for it comes from Gameweeks 5, 6 and 7 together. All 18 clubs play exactly once in each of those three rounds, so there are no blanks or doubles to plan around. Harry Kane (87.2% owned) and Michael Olise (84.3%) are already in almost every squad and will not separate you from anyone. What will is the rest of the squad: which defenders own the best three-round runs, which cheap midfielders hold their level, and which popular picks the model has on low minutes. Four availability facts shape the round. Julian Ryerson is out for Dortmund's game against Werder, Nico Schlotterbeck is out until 18 October, and Jamal Musiala and Mainz keeper Robin Zentner are both out until 22 October. Every number below comes from our model, and the full pool is on the Sofascore Bundesliga player picks page.

Gameweek 5 to 7 programs: whose next three rounds are worth owning

Bayern München have the strongest run in the game. [A]FCA → [H]RBL → [A]SCF adds up to 9.34 expected goals over three rounds, 2.53 more than anyone else. The Augsburg trip carries an 81% win probability and 3.51 expected goals, the biggest attacking number of the round. Leipzig at home in Gameweek 6 is a game to plan around, not a reason to sell. Dortmund visit in Gameweek 8.

Borussia Dortmund are the defensive pick. [H]WER → [A]FCU → [H]FRA gives them 1.00 expected clean sheets across the three games, the best figure in the league, and a 36% clean-sheet chance against Werder. The catch comes straight after: [A]FCB in Gameweek 8. VfB Stuttgart ([A]SCP → [A]HSV → [H]BMG, 6.69 expected goals and 0.83 expected clean sheets) have the best all-round run outside the big two, even with two away games. RB Leipzig ([H]FRA → [A]FCB → [H]ELV, 6.32) and Hoffenheim ([H]HSV → [A]BMG → [H]B04, 6.02) complete the top five on attack.

At the other end, Schalke 04 ([A]SCF → [H]M05 → [A]KOE) have the lowest three-round goal expectation in the league at 3.68, with Hamburger SV ([A]HOF → [H]STU → [A]SCP) next at 3.94. Eintracht Frankfurt ([A]RBL → [H]KOE → [A]BVB) face Leipzig and Dortmund away in the same window and carry only 0.43 expected clean sheets. Freiburg look strong this weekend, with a 60% win probability and a 36% clean-sheet chance at home to Schalke, but [A]B04 and [H]FCB follow, so their attack drops to tenth over three rounds. For rounds further out, see the full Sofascore Bundesliga schedule.

Best goalkeepers for Gameweek 5

Loris Karius (4.8m, S04) is the keeper to own over the horizon. [A]SCF → [H]M05 → [A]KOE gives him 4.9 → 5.2 → 5.1, 15.2 over three rounds, the best of any keeper, and 5.0 at home to Leipzig in Gameweek 8 takes him to 20.2 over four. Schalke rarely keep clean sheets (13% at Freiburg), so his points come from save volume rather than shutouts. He is also the best value keeper this round at 1.02 points per million. Manuel Neuer (6.1m, FCB) is the premium option and the top keeper this round at 5.0. [A]FCA → [H]RBL → [A]SCF gives him 5.0 → 4.8 → 5.0, 14.8 over three, behind Bayern's 0.95 expected clean sheets.

Finn Dahmen (5.6m, FCA) is the keeper to buy if you plan beyond three rounds. His line climbs: 4.2 → 5.0 → 5.4 across [H]FCB → [A]ELV → [H]FCU, then 5.3 at home to Freiburg in Gameweek 8, for 19.9 over four rounds, second only to Karius. Bayern's visit is his weakest game of the next six, so the case for him is the run behind it. Nahuel Noll (4.7m, SCP) is the deep differential at 3.7% ownership. [H]STU → [A]WER → [H]HSV gives him 4.5 → 4.7 → 5.1, a rising line for 14.3. Alexander Schwolow (4.5m, M05) is the cheapest keeper worth a slot while Zentner is out. [H]B04 → [A]S04 → [H]WER gives him 4.3 → 4.6 → 5.0, 13.9 in total, at 1.1% ownership. Zentner's return date of 22 October makes Schwolow a three-round pick rather than a season one.

Gregor Kobel is owned by 45.0% of managers, and there is no need to sell him yet. Dortmund's 1.00 expected clean sheets is the best in the game, even if his 13.3 points over three rounds trail the keepers above. His weak week is the Bayern trip in Gameweek 8 (3.4), so that is the moment to reconsider him. You can wait a round on this one.

Best defenders for Gameweek 5

Maximilian Mittelstaedt (7.1m, STU) leads defenders this round and over the next three. [A]SCP → [A]HSV → [H]BMG gives him 8.2 → 7.3 → 7.2, 22.7 in total and 3.7 clear of the next defender. He is on Stuttgart's penalties and the model gives him 0.23 expected assists at Paderborn, so his points come from attacking returns as well as clean sheets. His softest week of the next six is [A]B04 in Gameweek 8 (5.6), and his decay-weighted six-round score of 26.2 is second only to Olise in the whole game.

Alphonso Davies (6.2m, FCB) is the best way into Bayern's defence. [A]FCA → [H]RBL → [A]SCF gives him 7.1 → 6.2 → 5.7, 19.0 over three rounds and second among defenders, at 7.2% ownership. His 79 projected minutes carry a little more rotation risk than Jonathan Tah's 87, but Tah projects 17.9 on the same run for 0.8m more. Waldemar Anton (6.8m, BVB) is the Dortmund defender to own while Schlotterbeck is out: [H]WER → [A]FCU → [H]FRA, the best clean-sheet run in the game, gives him 6.7 → 5.8 → 5.7, or 18.2, at 12.0% ownership.

Matthias Ginter (6.9m, SCF) is where the three-round and four-round views disagree. [H]S04 → [A]B04 → [H]FCB gives him 7.3 → 5.5 → 5.0, a dip after this week, then 6.3 at Augsburg in Gameweek 8. Anton edges him over three rounds (18.2 to 17.8). Add Gameweek 8 and Ginter wins clearly, 24.1 to 22.1, because Dortmund go to Bayern and Anton drops to 3.9. If you are buying one defender to keep, buy Ginter, who is also on Freiburg's penalties. If you only plan three rounds ahead, buy Anton.

Nikola Katic (4.7m, S04) is the budget defender to hold. [A]SCF → [H]M05 → [A]KOE gives him a flat 5.8 → 6.1 → 5.7, 17.6 over three rounds and the sixth-best total of any defender, ahead of Willi Orban (17.2) and David Raum (16.9), who cost 1.9m and 2.3m more. Ozan Kabak (5.7m, HOF) is the alternative if this round matters most. [H]HSV → [A]BMG → [H]B04 gives him 6.8 → 5.6 → 4.9, 17.3 in total, with Hoffenheim on a 34% clean-sheet chance against Hamburg. Kabak is 1.0 point better this week; Katic is 1.0m cheaper and does not fade.

For the deepest budget slot, Maximilian Rohr (4.2m, ELV) is the better of the cheap starters. [A]FCU → [H]FCA → [A]RBL gives him 5.8 → 5.7 → 4.5, 16.0 over three rounds, then 5.5 at home to Mainz in Gameweek 8. That is 1.38 points per million this round, the best value of any defender, at 1.4% ownership. Felix Uduokhai (4.5m, FCU) plays the other side of that game and also projects 5.8, but [H]ELV → [H]BVB → [A]FCA drops him to 15.4 over three for 0.3m more. Raum (16.5% owned) drops to 3.2 for the Bayern trip in Gameweek 6 but projects 6.8 and 6.9 either side of it. Keep him.

Best midfielders for Gameweek 5

Michael Olise (12.2m, FCB) is the best player in the game this round and over the next three. [A]FCA → [H]RBL → [A]SCF gives him 11.2 → 10.3 → 8.2, 29.7 over three rounds, and the model has him on 0.62 expected goals and 0.44 expected assists at Augsburg. At 84.3% ownership he is a must-own, not a differential. Luis Diaz (8.9m, FCB) is the second Bayern midfielder worth owning. The same run gives him 8.1 → 7.4 → 5.8, or 21.3. Joshua Kimmich projects 21.0 over three rounds for 1.1m more, and over four the two are level (27.2 to 27.1), so Diaz is the better use of the money.

Antonio Nusa (7.0m, RBL) has a mixed run. [H]FRA → [A]FCB → [H]ELV gives him 7.4 → 5.5 → 6.5. He drops at Bayern, but the two home games carry him to 19.4 over three rounds, the best midfield total outside Bayern. Ismael Saibari (7.0m, FCB) projects 17.9 on Bayern's run, but only 58 minutes this round, so treat him as a rotation risk rather than a hold, and check the Sofascore Bundesliga predicted lineups before the deadline. Ibrahim Maza (6.6m, B04) is the value hold. [A]M05 → [H]SCF → [A]HOF gives him a flat 5.4 → 5.9 → 5.3, 16.6 in total, and he holds that level through [H]STU in Gameweek 8 (5.5). Aleix Garcia plays the same fixtures and projects 18.0, but costs 1.9m more.

Felix Nmecha (6.6m, BVB) is the Dortmund midfielder to own. [H]WER → [A]FCU → [H]FRA gives him 6.0 → 5.4 → 5.1, or 16.5 over three rounds. Joey Veerman edges him this round at 6.1 but falls to 4.8 and 4.5 afterwards and finishes on 15.4. Nmecha holds his level, so he is the better buy-and-keep.

Bilal El Khannouss (6.5m, STU) is the mid-price differential. He gets Stuttgart's [A]SCP → [A]HSV → [H]BMG run, the third-best attacking program in the game, and projects 5.8 → 5.2 → 5.3, 16.3 over three rounds, at only 4.3% ownership. He dips to 4.2 at Leverkusen in Gameweek 8, so treat him as a three-round hold rather than a season pick.

Lukas Petkov (4.7m, ELV) is the budget midfielder, and this is where the round's cheap options separate. [A]FCU → [H]FCA → [A]RBL gives him 5.7 → 5.8 → 4.8, 16.3 over three rounds, exactly level with El Khannouss for 1.8m less, and 5.0 at home to Mainz in Gameweek 8 takes him to 21.3 over four. He is on Elversberg's penalties, projects 79 minutes and costs 3.2m less than Nadiem Amiri, who projects 16.0 over the same window. Adam Hlozek is the cautionary comparison: 5.2 at home to Hamburg on 63 projected minutes, then 4.8 and 4.1, for 14.1. Bambase Conte (4.1m, HOF) is the best points-per-million midfielder this round at 1.22, but [H]HSV → [A]BMG → [H]B04 gives him 5.0 → 4.3 → 3.7, so he is a one-round filler at most. Laurin Curda (4.6m, SCP) is the flat alternative: [H]STU → [A]WER → [H]HSV gives him 5.1 → 4.7 → 5.0, 14.8, at 0.6% ownership.

Best forwards for Gameweek 5

Serhou Guirassy (8.8m, BVB) is the top non-Bayern forward this round. He projects 7.6 against Werder, and his 0.89 expected goals is the highest of any player in the game. [H]WER → [A]FCU → [H]FRA takes him to 19.0 over three rounds. His line falls to 4.5 at Bayern in Gameweek 8, so buy him for this run rather than for the season. Harry Kane (12.0m, FCB) projects 7.9 → 7.2 → 5.8 across [A]FCA → [H]RBL → [A]SCF, 20.9 over three rounds, with 0.85 expected goals at Augsburg and Bayern's penalties. He edges Guirassy over the horizon, but at 87.2% ownership he protects rank rather than gaining it.

Igor Matanovic (6.6m, SCF) is the value forward. [H]S04 → [A]B04 → [H]FCB gives him 7.1 → 5.5 → 5.1, 17.7 over three rounds, for 2.2m less than Guirassy. Freiburg's two toughest games follow the Schalke match, which is why his line drops, but he holds 5.3 at Augsburg in Gameweek 8.

Fabio Silva (5.0m, BVB) is the cheap way into Dortmund's attack. The model has him starting beside Guirassy on 76 minutes and 0.49 expected goals, and his 6.3 against Werder is the best value of any forward this round at 1.26 points per million. [H]WER → [A]FCU → [H]FRA gives him 6.3 → 4.6 → 4.2, 15.1 over three, then 3.5 at Bayern. That makes him a two-round pick at 2.1% ownership, with the sell round already marked: before Gameweek 8.

Here this round's ranking and the three-round ranking disagree. Marco Grüll (5.8m, WER) projects only 5.2 at Dortmund, below Derry Scherhant's 5.5 and Sheraldo Becker's 5.3. But [A]BVB → [H]SCP → [A]M05 then gives him 6.1 at home to Paderborn and 16.1 over three rounds, the fourth-best forward total in the game, while Scherhant's [H]S04 → [A]B04 → [H]FCB fades to 4.3 and 4.0 and finishes on 13.8. If you are buying one cheap forward to keep, buy Grüll. Sheraldo Becker (5.7m, M05) is the steadiest alternative: [H]B04 → [A]S04 → [H]WER gives him 5.3 → 5.3 → 5.2, then 5.4 at Elversberg in Gameweek 8, for 21.2 over four rounds, level with Grüll's 21.0. Marius Bülter (5.0m, KOE) is the deep differential at 0.4% ownership, with 14.0 over three on [H]BMG → [A]FRA → [H]S04, close to Deniz Undav's 15.2 for 3.2m less.

Captain picks for Gameweek 5

The captain scores double in Sofascore Bundesliga, so this is the biggest single choice of the round. Michael Olise (12.2m, FCB) is the clear captain at 11.2 projected points, 3.0 ahead of anyone else. [A]FCA → [H]RBL → [A]SCF keeps him the top projection in Gameweeks 6 and 7 as well (10.3 and 8.2), and he stays top in every one of the next six gameweeks, so he is the captain plan, not only this week's pick.

Behind him the list is tight. Maximilian Mittelstaedt projects 8.2 and is the differential captain at 10.6% ownership. He is second or third in projected points in each of Gameweeks 5, 6 and 7, which makes him the strongest captaincy alternative across the horizon. Luis Diaz (8.1), Harry Kane (7.9), Joshua Kimmich (7.7) and Serhou Guirassy (7.6) come next. Captaining Kane on 87.2% ownership protects rank more than it gains it.

Who to sell before Gameweek 5

Julian Ryerson (6.1m, BVB) is the clearest sale. He is owned by 17.2% of managers, but he is out for the Werder game and projects 0 points this round. On his return [A]FCU → [H]FRA gives him only 2.7 and 3.2, 5.9 over three rounds. Why now: Dortmund's best clean-sheet run of the season starts this week and he misses the first game of it. Anton projects 18.2 over the same three games for 0.7m more, so this is a swap within the same club.

Jobe Bellingham (6.0m, BVB) is the second Dortmund sale. 14.5% own him, but the model projects 20 minutes and 2.1 points against Werder, and 2.1 → 2.7 → 2.8, or 7.6, across [H]WER → [A]FCU → [H]FRA. He does not project above 3.2 in any of the next six gameweeks, so waiting a round only costs another weak score. Nmecha covers the same run with 16.5 for 0.6m more.

Three more popular picks are projected on low minutes. Ermedin Demirovic (5.9m, STU, 10.1% owned) projects 26 minutes and 5.6 over three rounds, even on Stuttgart's strong run. Loic Badé (6.0m, B04, 8.2%) projects 9 minutes and 1.8 over three. Danny da Costa (6.0m, M05, 8.0%) projects 22 minutes and 5.3 over three. None of them projects more than 2.7 in any of the next six gameweeks, so the run does not fix it and there is no reason to wait.

Deniz Undav (8.2m, STU) is a sale on price, and the round to do it is this one. [A]SCP is a good fixture, with Stuttgart on a 61% win probability, and 5.5 is a respectable score for him. But [A]HSV → [H]BMG gives him 4.8 and 4.9, and he drops to 3.5 at Leverkusen in Gameweek 8, for 15.2 over three rounds. Matanovic projects 17.7 over the same window for 1.6m less. This week is his best score of the next six, so the choice is selling into a decent number now or out of a weak one later.

Two swaps inside the same club are worth making if you have the transfer. At Leverkusen, Edmond Tapsoba (7.0m, 12.8% owned) projects 13.8 over three rounds, while Miguel Gutiérrez (5.9m) projects 17.0 on the same [A]M05 → [H]SCF → [A]HOF fixtures. The gap starts this week (4.5 against 5.7), so there is no reason to wait. At Bayern, Dayot Upamecano (14.4% owned) projects 5.3 → 4.8 → 4.5, 14.6 over three, so there is no need to sell him; but Davies projects 19.0 on the same run for 0.9m less, so if you are rebuilding the defence anyway, he is the Bayern defender to have. Use the Sofascore Bundesliga optimal teams page to check how each swap fits a full squad, and the market probabilities to compare our numbers against the bookmakers.

Best Quick Fix team for Gameweek 5

Sofascore's Quick Fix token works like a Free Hit: one round with any squad, then your old team comes back. With all 18 clubs playing once and no doubles, Gameweek 5 is not a round that demands it. Still, this is the squad that maximises projected points for this round alone, within the solver's price ceiling and the three-per-club limit, in a 5-3-2. Goalkeeper: Loris Karius (4.9). Defence: Maximilian Mittelstaedt (8.2), Matthias Ginter (7.3), Alphonso Davies (7.1), David Raum (6.8), Ozan Kabak (6.8). Midfield: Michael Olise (11.2, captain), Luis Diaz (8.1), Antonio Nusa (7.4). Attack: Serhou Guirassy (7.6), Igor Matanovic (7.1). Bench: Alexander Schwolow, Fabio Silva, Lukas Petkov and Adam Hlozek. The starting eleven projects 82.5 points, or 93.7 with Olise's double. Kane misses out because the three Bayern slots go to Olise, Diaz and Davies. For the exact live optimum, use the Sofascore Bundesliga optimal teams solver.

Gameweek 5 transfer summary

Out: Ryerson and Jobe Bellingham first, then any of Demirovic, Badé or da Costa you still own; Undav if you need the funds. In: Davies or Anton for the defence, Katic or Rohr as the cheap defender to keep, Nmecha or El Khannouss for midfield, Petkov as the budget midfielder, and Grüll or Matanovic as the forward to keep, with Fabio Silva as a two-round option. Ginter is the defender for anyone planning four rounds or more, and Karius or Dahmen is the keeper. Captain Olise, with Mittelstaedt as the differential. We did not publish a Gameweek 4 preview for this game; earlier and later Sofascore Bundesliga articles collect in the Sofascore Bundesliga preview hub, and our fantasy football guides cover strategy beyond a single gameweek.

FAQ

Who should I captain in Sofascore Bundesliga Gameweek 5?

Captain Michael Olise. He projects 11.2 points at Augsburg, 3.0 more than anyone else, and he stays the top projection in each of the next six gameweeks. Maximilian Mittelstaedt (8.2) is the differential alternative at 10.6% ownership.

Should I sell Julian Ryerson before Sofascore Bundesliga Gameweek 5?

Yes. Julian Ryerson is out for Dortmund's game against Werder and projects 0 points this round, then only 2.7 and 3.2 in Gameweeks 6 and 7. Waldemar Anton covers the same Dortmund run with 18.2 projected points for 0.7m more.

Who are the best budget defenders for Sofascore Bundesliga Gameweek 5?

Nikola Katic (4.7m) projects 17.6 points over the next three rounds, more than Willi Orban or David Raum, who cost around 2m more. Maximilian Rohr (4.2m) is the best value defender this round at 1.38 points per million and projects 16.0 over three.

Which teams have the best fixtures in Sofascore Bundesliga Gameweeks 5 to 7?

Bayern lead on attack with 9.34 expected goals from [A]FCA → [H]RBL → [A]SCF. Dortmund lead on defence with 1.00 expected clean sheets from [H]WER → [A]FCU → [H]FRA. Schalke and Hamburg have the weakest attacking runs.

Who is the best differential in Sofascore Bundesliga Gameweek 5?

Lukas Petkov (4.7m, 4.1% owned) projects 16.3 points over three rounds, level with Bilal El Khannouss (6.5m, 4.3%). Among forwards, Fabio Silva (5.0m, 2.1%) projects 6.3 against Werder, the best points per million of any forward this round.

This preview was written by TheFantasyTool AI.