Sofascore Bundesliga Gameweek 5 tips: captain picks

Sofascore Bundesliga Gameweek 5 preview: best buys, captain picks and differentials

Sofascore Bundesliga Gameweek 5 opens on Friday 9 October, when Dortmund host Werder Bremen, and all 18 clubs play once. With a long gap before the next deadline, the round's real decision is about the run that starts here. Bayern and Dortmund both have strong three-week runs before they meet in Gameweek 8, and Stuttgart's program ranks third in both attack and clean sheets. And several popular players project far below their price across all three weeks, not just this one. Every number below comes from the model's latest run. The live tables are on the Sofascore Bundesliga player picks page.

Gameweek 5 to 7: whose next three rounds are worth owning

Bayern's [A]FCA → [H]RBL → [A]SCF is the best attacking program in the game by a distance: 9.28 expected goals over three matches, 2.5 more than anyone else. The RB Leipzig home game is the one to plan around rather than avoid. Bayern are still expected to score in it, and the Augsburg away game is the best single fixture of the round (78% win probability, 3.38 expected goals).

Dortmund's [H]WER → [A]FCU → [H]FRA is the best defensive run, at 0.97 expected clean sheets over three, and two of the three are at home. Stuttgart's [A]SCP → [A]HSV → [H]BMG comes third in attack (6.66 xG) and third in clean sheets (0.84). That makes Stuttgart the best way into a strong program without paying Bayern prices. RB Leipzig are the trap: [H]FRA is a good start, but the Bayern away game in Gameweek 6 sits in the middle of their run, and they have only 0.65 expected clean sheets over the three.

Further down, Gladbach ([A]KOE → [H]HOF → [A]STU, 0.40 expected clean sheets), Hamburg ([A]HOF → [H]STU → [A]SCP, 0.41) and Frankfurt ([A]RBL → [H]KOE → [A]BVB, 0.42) have the three worst defensive runs. Their defenders and goalkeepers are players to move on, not to buy. Full fixture odds are on the market probabilities page, and the Sofascore Bundesliga schedule shows the run beyond Gameweek 7.

Best goalkeepers for Gameweek 5

Loris Karius (4.8m, S04) is the keeper to own for the next three with [A]SCF → [H]M05 → [A]KOE. His projection runs flat at 4.8 → 5.1 → 5.0, and his 14.9 points over three is the most of any goalkeeper. Schalke only have 0.50 expected clean sheets over those games. The points come from volume: the model expects 4.4 saves from him at Freiburg.

Manuel Neuer (6.1m, FCB) is the premium option with [A]FCA → [H]RBL → [A]SCF: 4.8 → 4.8 → 4.9, and Bayern have 0.94 expected clean sheets over the run. The differential is Nahuel Noll (4.7m, SCP), owned by 3.7%. Over [H]STU → [A]WER → [H]HSV his projection rises every week, from 4.4 to 4.6 to 5.0.

This is where this round and the three-round horizon disagree. Oliver Baumann ties Karius and Neuer at 4.8 this Gameweek, but falls to 4.3 and 4.0 as Hoffenheim go to Gladbach and host Leverkusen. If you are buying one keeper and keeping him, buy Karius.

Best defenders for Gameweek 5

Maximilian Mittelstaedt (7.1m, STU) is the standout defender in the game. He goes 8.2 → 7.4 → 7.3 over [A]SCP → [A]HSV → [H]BMG, and his 22.9 points over three is 3.5 clear of the next defender. Over six rounds he leads defenders by 6.2 points. He attacks as much as he defends, with 0.18 expected goals and 0.23 expected assists in Gameweek 5. Only 10.1% of managers own him. The why-now is simple: his best week is the first one, so waiting a round costs you the biggest score of the run.

Nico Schlotterbeck (7.5m, BVB) is the way into Dortmund's program: [H]WER → [A]FCU → [H]FRA, 7.3 → 6.1 → 6.0, at 4.3% ownership. Matthias Ginter ties him at 7.3 this Gameweek, but Freiburg's [H]S04 → [A]B04 → [H]FCB fades fast, and Schlotterbeck is 1.6 points ahead over the three rounds. Pick Schlotterbeck for Gameweeks 5 to 7. Ginter only overtakes him over six rounds (37.4 against 35.3), because Freiburg's Gameweeks 8 to 10 are kind: [A]FCA → [H]FCU → [A]ELV. Alphonso Davies (6.2m, FCB) is the cheaper Bayern route, with [A]FCA → [H]RBL → [A]SCF worth 18.1 points (6.6 → 6.1 → 5.4).

Ozan Kabak (5.7m, HOF) has the best points per million of any defender above 5m, at 1.21. His program is [H]HSV → [A]BMG → [H]B04. It is front-loaded (6.9 → 5.7 → 4.9), so he is best bought now and held while the Hamburg and Gladbach games play out.

Budget defenders are where this game rewards homework. Maximilian Rohr (4.2m, ELV) has the best points per million of any defender in the game (1.36). He projects 5.7 → 5.8 → 4.5 over [A]FCU → [H]FCA → [A]RBL, so plan to bench him for the Leipzig trip. His 1.4% ownership makes him a genuine differential. Nikola Katic (4.7m, S04) is the steadier cheap pick at 5.7 → 6.0 → 5.6 over [A]SCF → [H]M05 → [A]KOE, with 17.3 points over three, more than several defenders who cost 2m more.

One note for owners of RB Leipzig defenders. David Raum projects 6.7 → 3.0 → 6.5 over [H]FRA → [A]FCB → [H]ELV. That is not a reason to sell him, because the two good weeks either side are strong. It is a reason to have a bench option ready for Gameweek 6.

Best midfielders for Gameweek 5

Michael Olise (12.2m, FCB) is already owned by 83.6% of managers, and he should be. He projects 10.6 → 10.1 → 8.2 over [A]FCA → [H]RBL → [A]SCF, 28.9 points over three and 54.2 over six. No other player in the game comes close. The real midfield decisions are the ones after him.

Joshua Kimmich (10.0m, FCB) is the premium differential. He is owned by 9.8%, projects 7.7 → 7.3 → 6.2 over the same [A]FCA → [H]RBL → [A]SCF program, and over six rounds he is the second-best midfielder in the game (40.2). Luis Diaz (8.9m, FCB) scores more over the next three (21.5 against 21.2, 8.0 → 7.6 → 5.9) and costs 1.1m less. So Diaz is the pick for Gameweeks 5 to 7 and Kimmich is the longer hold. Remember that three Bayern players is the club limit, and Olise takes one of the slots.

Antonio Nusa (7.0m, RBL) is the best value among the popular midfielders, at 1.07 points per million. His Leipzig program [H]FRA → [A]FCB → [H]ELV gives him 7.5 → 5.5 → 6.6, so Gameweek 6 is his dip.

For hidden gems, Chris Führich (6.5m, STU) is owned by 0.8% and rides Stuttgart's [A]SCP → [A]HSV → [H]BMG at 5.5 → 5.1 → 5.2. That flat run is what "buy him and stop thinking about it" looks like. Moussa Diaby (7.0m, B04), owned by 1.2%, projects 5.3 → 5.6 → 4.8 over [A]M05 → [H]SCF → [A]HOF. Konstantinos Karetsas (5.9m, BVB) is a front-loaded cheap way into Dortmund, at 6.3 → 4.7 → 4.6 over [H]WER → [A]FCU → [H]FRA.

At the budget end, Lukas Petkov (4.7m, ELV) projects 5.4 → 5.7 → 4.7 over [A]FCU → [H]FCA → [A]RBL, at 1.15 points per million. Laurin Curda (4.6m, SCP), owned by 0.5%, is almost perfectly flat: 5.1 → 4.9 → 5.0 over [H]STU → [A]WER → [H]HSV.

Best forwards for Gameweek 5

Serhou Guirassy (8.8m, BVB) is the top forward on both horizons. He projects 8.0 → 6.4 → 6.1 over [H]WER → [A]FCU → [H]FRA, 20.5 points over three and 37.9 over six. His 0.76 expected goals in Gameweek 5 are the most of any player in the game. The home game against Werder is the peak of his run, so a buy has to land before this deadline to catch it.

Igor Matanovic (6.6m, SCF) is the value forward at 1.08 points per million. Be clear about what you are buying, though. [H]S04 → [A]B04 → [H]FCB goes 7.1 → 5.5 → 5.2, so most of the value is in Gameweek 5 and you should treat him as a pick you may move on after it. The differential is Marco Grüll (5.8m, WER), owned by 6.4%. His [A]BVB → [H]SCP → [A]M05 gives him 5.5 → 6.3 → 5.0, 16.8 over three, which ranks him fourth among forwards. Phillip Tietz (5.2m, M05) is the budget forward, flat at 5.0 → 4.9 → 4.7 over [H]B04 → [A]S04 → [H]WER, at 1.8% ownership.

Sofascore Bundesliga captain picks for Gameweek 5

Captain Michael Olise (12.2m, FCB). His 10.6 at [A]FCA is 2.4 clear of the next-best player, and he is also the top projection in Gameweek 6 (10.1, [H]RBL) and Gameweek 7 (8.2, [A]SCF). This is a three-week captaincy plan, not a one-week pick.

Maximilian Mittelstaedt is the numerical number two at 8.2, and he is second again in Gameweek 7. He is a bold defender captaincy for anyone who wants to move away from the template. Serhou Guirassy and Luis Diaz follow at 8.0 each. Harry Kane projects 7.2, which puts him ninth this round.

Who to sell before Gameweek 5

Jobe Bellingham (6.0m, BVB) is the clearest sale, and the timing matters. 14.8% of managers own him, but the model has him on 25 minutes in Gameweek 5. His projection reads 1.5 → 2.5 → 2.7 while Dortmund go into [H]WER → [A]FCU → [H]FRA, the best defensive run in the game. The fixtures are not the problem, his minutes are. Swapping him for Karetsas keeps you in the same Dortmund program at 0.1m less, with 8.9 more points over three.

Deniz Undav (8.2m, STU) is a sell, but not because of Stuttgart's fixtures. [A]SCP → [A]HSV → [H]BMG is a good run, and his 4.8 → 4.3 → 4.7 is respectable. The problem is the price: 13.8 points over three at 8.2m is 0.59 points per million, with 67 projected minutes. Why now: the money is worth most this week. For 0.6m more, Guirassy gives you 6.7 more points over the three, and his biggest week is this one. Undav then drops to 3.3 at [A]B04 in Gameweek 8.

Edmond Tapsoba (7.0m, B04) and Jarell Quansah (6.6m, B04) are owned by 13.2% and 11.7% of managers. Leverkusen's [A]M05 → [H]SCF → [A]HOF gives them 4.2 → 4.7 → 4.1 and 4.0 → 4.4 → 3.8. Neither reaches 5 points in any of the next six rounds, so there is no better week coming to wait for. Katic scores more at 4.7m. Their team-mate Miguel Gutiérrez (5.9m) is the Leverkusen defender to keep, at 17.2 over three.

Two holds that look like sells. First, Harry Kane (12.0m), at 87.1% ownership. Guirassy is narrowly ahead of him over three rounds (20.5 against 19.7) and six (37.9 against 36.9), and costs 3.2m less. If you are chasing a rank, that swap is the one template move worth making this week, because Guirassy's peak is Gameweek 5. If you are protecting a rank, hold Kane: [A]FCA is a fine fixture and almost everyone around you owns him. Second, Gregor Kobel (6.0m, 45.5% owned) is fine for Gameweeks 5 to 7 (4.5 → 4.2 → 4.3). He drops to 3.3 at [A]FCB in Gameweek 8, so you can wait a round and make that switch then.

Transfer summary

The moves that matter this week are cheap ones. Sell Bellingham for Karetsas. Sell Undav to fund Guirassy or Matanovic. Bring in Mittelstaedt before his best week, and use Rohr or Katic to pay for it. Olise stays captain through Gameweek 7. To see how those pieces fit a legal squad, the Sofascore Bundesliga optimal teams solver builds it live. Check the predicted lineups closer to the deadline, because a long gap before a round is when minutes change most. More articles for this game are in the Sofascore Bundesliga preview hub, and our fantasy guides cover strategy. For another Bundesliga game this week, see the Bundesliga Fantasy Matchday 5 preview.

FAQ

Who should I captain in Sofascore Bundesliga Gameweek 5?

Michael Olise. He projects 10.6 at Augsburg, 2.4 clear of anyone else, and he is also the top projection in Gameweeks 6 and 7. Maximilian Mittelstaedt (8.2) is the differential alternative.

Which budget defenders are best for Sofascore Bundesliga Gameweek 5?

Maximilian Rohr (4.2m, Elversberg) has the best points per million of any defender at 1.36, with 5.7 projected. Nikola Katic (4.7m, Schalke) is steadier over three rounds with 17.3 points.

Should I sell Jobe Bellingham before Gameweek 5?

Yes. He is projected for only 25 minutes and 1.5 points in Gameweek 5. Konstantinos Karetsas keeps you in the same Dortmund program for 0.1m less, with 8.9 more points over three rounds.

Should I swap Harry Kane for Serhou Guirassy in Gameweek 5?

Only if you are chasing a rank. Guirassy is narrowly ahead over three rounds (20.5 against 19.7) and costs 3.2m less, but Kane is owned by 87.1% of managers, so holding him protects your rank.

Best differentials for Sofascore Bundesliga Gameweek 5?

Chris Führich (6.5m, Stuttgart, 0.8% owned), Nico Schlotterbeck (7.5m, Dortmund, 4.3%) and Maximilian Rohr (4.2m, Elversberg, 1.4%) all project well across Gameweeks 5 to 7.

This preview was written by TheFantasyTool AI.