Serie Manager Runde 7: best buys and captain picks
Serie Manager Runde 7 preview: best buys, captain picks and differentials
Serie Manager Runde 7 opens on Friday with Frosinone - Sassuolo, and all twenty clubs play once. The round has one obvious headline: Roma host Genoa with a 70% win probability, which makes Donyell Malen the clearest captain of the round at 163k. But the transfers you make this week should be judged on Runde 7 to 9, not on Friday to Monday. Inter, Roma, Como and Juventus own the four best three-round programs, and Napoli, Lazio and Fiorentina all have a week inside that window that changes what you should do with their players now.
This preview covers the buys by position, the captaincy plan for the next three rounds, the differentials and the sells. The full ranking sits on the Serie Manager player picks page, and last week's analysis is in the Serie Manager Runde 6 preview.
Serie Manager Runde 7 programs: whose next three rounds are worth owning
Inter's [A]BOL → [H]FIO → [A]VEN is the best attacking run in the game at 6.38 expected goals over three rounds, more than a goal clear of anyone else. Roma follow at 5.32 with [H]GEN → [A]NAP → [H]CGL: the Napoli away game in Runde 8 is the one to plan around, but the two home games either side are among the strongest fixtures on the calendar. Juventus have the best defensive run at 1.32 expected clean sheets from [H]LAZ → [A]LEC → [A]GEN, and Como's [A]FIO → [H]SAS → [A]TOR is the third-best attack.
The table ranks the top ten programs by expected goals over Runde 7-9. The first four number columns are this round; the last three are the run.
| Team | Runde 7 | Win probability | Expected goals | Clean sheet | Program (Runde 7-9) | 3-round xG | 3-round CS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inter | [A]BOL | 59% | 2.00 | 36% | [A]BOL → [H]FIO → [A]VEN | 6.38 | 1.13 |
| Roma | [H]GEN | 70% | 2.22 | 48% | [H]GEN → [A]NAP → [H]CGL | 5.32 | 1.19 |
| Como | [A]FIO | 47% | 1.72 | 28% | [A]FIO → [H]SAS → [A]TOR | 5.09 | 1.00 |
| Juventus | [H]LAZ | 58% | 1.76 | 43% | [H]LAZ → [A]LEC → [A]GEN | 4.97 | 1.32 |
| Milan | [H]ATA | 52% | 1.75 | 33% | [H]ATA → [A]UDI → [H]BOL | 4.75 | 0.94 |
| Atalanta | [A]MIL | 23% | 1.11 | 17% | [A]MIL → [H]FRC → [A]FIO | 4.68 | 0.85 |
| Napoli | [A]VEN | 56% | 1.89 | 34% | [A]VEN → [H]ROM → [A]MON | 4.67 | 1.07 |
| Frosinone | [H]SAS | 41% | 1.71 | 21% | [H]SAS → [A]ATA → [H]LEC | 4.25 | 0.77 |
| Udinese | [H]LEC | 50% | 1.56 | 38% | [H]LEC → [H]MIL → [A]PAR | 4.19 | 0.95 |
| Torino | [A]PAR | 38% | 1.21 | 35% | [A]PAR → [H]MON → [H]COM | 3.85 | 0.94 |
At the bottom, Lecce ([A]UDI → [H]JUV → [A]FRC), Parma ([H]TOR → [A]LAZ → [H]UDI) and Venezia ([H]NAP → [A]GEN → [H]INT) have the three weakest attacking runs, and Fiorentina's [H]COM → [A]INT → [H]ATA is joint-worst for clean sheets at 0.50. Lazio are the interesting case: [A]JUV is one of the hardest fixtures of the round, but [H]PAR follows straight after. Check the full Serie Manager schedule before you commit to a three-round plan, and the Serie Manager market probabilities for the bookmaker view of each game.
Best goalkeepers for Serie Manager Runde 7
Guglielmo Vicario (4.9m, JUV) is the keeper to own for the run. Juventus play [H]LAZ → [A]LEC → [A]GEN, the highest expected clean-sheet total in the game, and his projection reads 76k → 89k → 74k, which is 239k over three rounds. Josep Martinez (5.5m, INT) edges him this round and over the three (79k → 78k → 86k, 244k) on Inter's [A]BOL → [H]FIO → [A]VEN, so either works. Vicario is the one we would buy: he is 0.6m cheaper, his Runde 8 at Lecce is the best single keeper week in the window, and Juventus's 43% clean-sheet chance against Lazio is the second-highest of the round.
The value pick is Lucas Perri (3.1m, TOR) at 0.3% ownership. Torino play [A]PAR → [H]MON → [H]COM, and his 64k → 67k → 43k is the best points per million of any regular starting keeper this round. Runde 9 against Como is the weak week, so treat him as a two-round hold. Marco Carnesecchi (4.2m, ATA) is the keeper to bring in next round, not this one: Atalanta go to Milan first (43k), then the run turns, with [A]MIL → [H]FRC → [A]FIO and Runde 10 giving him 43k → 76k → 65k → 87k.
Best defenders for Serie Manager Runde 7
Federico Dimarco (5.9m, INT) is already on 46.9% of teams, and Inter's program gives no reason to move: 75k → 77k → 82k over [A]BOL → [H]FIO → [A]VEN. The decision is the next defender. Gleison Bremer (5.2m, JUV) has the best three-round total of any defender outside Dimarco at 215k (70k → 81k → 64k), and Juventus's [H]LAZ → [A]LEC → [A]GEN is the safest clean-sheet run in the game.
Here the round and the run disagree. Gianluca Mancini (5.1m, ROM) projects 73k against Genoa on [H]GEN → [A]NAP → [H]CGL, more than Bremer this week, but Roma's trip to Napoli drops him to 36k in Runde 8, and Bremer finishes the three rounds 45k ahead. If you are buying one defender to keep, buy Bremer. Mehmet Zeki Celik (4.3m, JUV) (62k → 73k → 57k) and Pierre Kalulu (4.8m, JUV) (60k → 73k → 56k) are cheaper routes into the same Juventus defence and its [H]LAZ → [A]LEC → [A]GEN run.
The budget pick is Mergim Vojvoda (3.0m, UDI). He is the best defender per million this round at 70k, owned by 0.7%, with Udinese playing [H]LEC → [H]MIL → [A]PAR. The Milan game drops him to 42k, but 172k over three rounds is level with defenders costing 2m more. Jhon Lucumi (3.7m, JUV) (52k → 63k → 48k) is the cheaper way into the same [H]LAZ → [A]LEC → [A]GEN clean-sheet run.
A note on club limits: Serie Manager allows four players per club. Vicario, Bremer, the Juventus midfielders below and Kolo Muani all compete for the same four Juventus slots, so pick the four with the best three-round totals for your structure. The Serie Manager optimal teams solver respects that limit automatically.
Best midfielders for Serie Manager Runde 7
Nico Paz (5.5m, COM) (49.7% owned) remains the midfield template on Como's [A]FIO → [H]SAS → [A]TOR: 90k → 97k → 79k. Owning him protects your rank; it does not move it. The spots that move it are the next two midfield slots.
Nicolás González (3.8m, JUV) is the best value midfielder in the game. He projects 83k → 87k → 68k for 238k, the same three-round total as Chico Conceicao at 2.6m less, and only 4.3% of managers own him. Chico Conceicao (6.4m, JUV) (79k → 88k → 71k) is the premium version on the same Juventus run, with a share of the penalties. For the Inter route, Hakan Calhanoglu (6.7m, INT) carries 76k → 79k → 81k on [A]BOL → [H]FIO → [A]VEN and takes over half of Inter's penalties in the model.
Runde 7 and the three-round view split again in midfield. Giorgi Kvernadze (3.7m, FRC) has the second-highest midfield projection of the round at 88k on Frosinone's [H]SAS → [A]ATA → [H]LEC, and he has five goals and two assists this season (all competitions, through Runde 5). Then Frosinone go to Atalanta and he falls to 31k before 75k against Lecce. Over three rounds Nicolás González is 44k ahead. Kvernadze is a good one-round rotation; Nicolás González is the hold. Armand Laurienté (3.7m, SAS) (84k → 40k → 62k) has the same shape on Sassuolo's [A]FRC → [A]COM → [H]LAZ and takes about a third of their penalties.
Two midfielders to buy next round rather than this one. Charles De Ketelaere (4.5m, ATA) plays at Milan first (43k) and then projects 96k and 104k in Runde 8 and 10 on [A]MIL → [H]FRC → [A]FIO. Federico Bernardeschi (4.2m, BOL) goes 48k → 80k → 62k → 95k on Bologna's [H]INT → [A]CGL → [A]MIL and beyond. If you own De Ketelaere, hold him through the Milan game.
Best forwards for Serie Manager Runde 7
Donyell Malen (8.2m, ROM) is the best player in the game over any window: 163k → 84k → 140k on Roma's [H]GEN → [A]NAP → [H]CGL, 387k over three rounds, with most of Roma's penalties. He has six goals from 4.57 expected goals this season. The Napoli week dips to 84k, but nobody should sell him for it.
Randal Kolo Muani (5.3m, JUV) is the buy of the round. Juventus's [H]LAZ → [A]LEC → [A]GEN gives him 111k → 115k → 91k for 317k, third among forwards behind Malen and Ramos, at 5.3m. He takes most of the Juventus penalties and has produced 0.86 expected goal involvements per 90 minutes this season. Goncalo Ramos (5.5m, MIL) (125k → 102k → 101k) is the other template forward on Milan's [H]ATA → [A]UDI → [H]BOL and stays a hold.
The budget forward is Keinan Davis (3.6m, UDI): 85k → 60k → 73k on Udinese's [H]LEC → [H]MIL → [A]PAR, and he is Udinese's main penalty taker in the model. At 1.8% ownership he is a real differential with three playable fixtures. Antonio Raimondo (4.2m, FRC) projects 94k this round on [H]SAS → [A]ATA → [H]LEC, but the trip to Atalanta drops him to 34k; treat him as a one-round rotation and plan to move him on before Runde 8.
Lautaro Martinez is on 25.8% of teams at 11.2m. Inter's program is the best in the game and his 91k → 96k → 99k is solid, so he is a hold if you own him. He is not a buy: Kolo Muani out-projects him over the three rounds at less than half the price. Check the Serie Manager predicted lineups for the Inter forward rotation before you decide.
Serie Manager Runde 7 captain picks
Captain Donyell Malen (8.2m, ROM) on [H]GEN → [A]NAP → [H]CGL. His 163k against Genoa is the highest projection of the round by 39k, and the captain doubles it. Genoa are given a 10% win chance, and Roma's 2.22 expected goals is the highest of the round.
- Donyell Malen - 163k, [H]GEN
- Goncalo Ramos - 125k, [H]ATA
- Rasmus Højlund - 115k, [A]VEN
- Randal Kolo Muani - 111k, [H]LAZ
Plan the next two armbands too. In Runde 8 Malen goes to Napoli and Kolo Muani becomes the top captain option at 115k at Lecce, with Ramos (102k) next. In Runde 9 the armband goes back to Malen at 140k against Cagliari. Owning both Malen and Kolo Muani covers all three rounds, which is the strongest reason to buy Kolo Muani now.
Hidden gems and differentials for Serie Manager Runde 7
- Nicolás González (3.8m, JUV) - 4.3% owned, 83k → 87k → 68k on [H]LAZ → [A]LEC → [A]GEN. The best value midfielder over three rounds.
- Keinan Davis (3.6m, UDI) - 1.8% owned, 85k → 60k → 73k on [H]LEC → [H]MIL → [A]PAR, with Udinese's penalties.
- Lucas Perri (3.1m, TOR) - 0.3% owned, 64k → 67k → 43k on [A]PAR → [H]MON → [H]COM. A two-round keeper at a budget price.
- Lucas Da Cunha (5.2m, COM) - 1.5% owned, 67k → 72k → 60k on [A]FIO → [H]SAS → [A]TOR, with most of Como's penalties. A cheaper way into Como's attack than Paz.
- Mergim Vojvoda (3.0m, UDI) - 0.7% owned, 70k → 42k → 59k on [H]LEC → [H]MIL → [A]PAR.
Low ownership is a calculated risk: these picks win you ground when they score and cost you little when the template does. See them all ranked on the Serie Manager player picks page.
Who to sell before Serie Manager Runde 7
Kenan Yildiz (7.5m, JUV) is the first sale. Juventus play [H]LAZ → [A]LEC → [A]GEN, the best clean-sheet run in the game, and he misses all of it: he is out until early December and projects -5k in every one of the next six rounds, yet 6.2% of managers still own him. Why now: no return date falls inside the window, so every round he stays is a round with an empty slot.
Rasmus Højlund (8.4m, NAP) is the sale that pays the most. Napoli play [A]VEN → [H]ROM → [A]MON. [A]VEN is a good fixture and 115k is a strong score; this is not a bad week for him. But Napoli host Roma next and he drops to 69k, and Runde 10 is 54k. Kolo Muani projects 111k this round, almost the same, then 115k in Runde 8, and costs 3.1m less. Why now: the swap costs you about 4k this round and gains 46k next round. Waiting a week only gives up the gain.
David De Gea (3.6m, FIO) (12.0% owned) is the keeper to replace. Fiorentina's [H]COM → [A]INT → [H]ATA has the joint-fewest expected clean sheets of any program (0.50), and his 41k → 31k → 44k puts the two worst weeks of the run right at the start. Why now: those weeks are Runde 7 and 8. Perri or Vicario are the replacements, depending on how much you want to spend.
Yan Couto (3.3m, COM) is on 27.9% of teams but projects only 40k → 45k → 39k on [A]FIO → [H]SAS → [A]TOR, 125k over three rounds. Como's attack is good; the clean-sheet run behind it is average. Mergim Vojvoda costs less and projects 172k. Why now: most of the gap is in Runde 7 itself (70k against 40k).
Do not sell the Lazio block. Mattia Zaccagni (4.1m, LAZ), Christos Mandas (3.7m, LAZ) and Nuno Tavares (3.7m, LAZ) all play [A]JUV → [H]PAR → [A]SAS, with the hardest fixture of the window first, and their best straight after against Parma: Zaccagni goes 31k → 83k → 55k. Runde 8 is their best week of the window, so hold them.
Serie Manager Runde 7 transfer summary
- Buy: Randal Kolo Muani, Nicolás González, Gleison Bremer, Guglielmo Vicario; budget Mergim Vojvoda and Keinan Davis.
- Sell: Kenan Yildiz, Rasmus Højlund (into Kolo Muani), David De Gea, Yan Couto.
- Hold through the dip: the Lazio players, Charles De Ketelaere, Donyell Malen.
- Buy next round: Charles De Ketelaere, Federico Bernardeschi, Marco Carnesecchi.
- Captain: Donyell Malen in Runde 7, Randal Kolo Muani in Runde 8, Donyell Malen in Runde 9.
More Serie Manager analysis lives in our Serie Manager preview hub.
FAQ
Who should I captain in Serie Manager Runde 7?
Donyell Malen. He projects 163k against Genoa, the highest number of the round by 39k, ahead of Goncalo Ramos (125k) and Rasmus Højlund (115k).
Who is the best forward to buy for Serie Manager Runde 7?
Randal Kolo Muani at 5.3m. Juventus play [H]LAZ → [A]LEC → [A]GEN, and he projects 111k → 115k → 91k, 317k over three rounds, the third-best forward total in the game behind Malen and Ramos, at a lower price than both.
Should I sell Rasmus Højlund before Serie Manager Runde 7?
Yes, if Kolo Muani is the replacement. Rasmus Højlund projects 115k at Venezia but falls to 69k against Roma in Runde 8, while Kolo Muani projects 111k and then 115k for 3.1m less.
Which budget players are best for Serie Manager Runde 7?
Mergim Vojvoda (3.0m, 70k this round), Nicolás González (3.8m, 238k over three rounds) and Keinan Davis (3.6m, 85k → 60k → 73k).
Should I sell my Lazio players before Serie Manager Runde 7?
No. [A]JUV is Lazio's hardest fixture of the window, but [H]PAR follows in Runde 8, where Mattia Zaccagni projects 83k. Hold them through one weak week.
This preview was written by TheFantasyTool AI.