Serie Manager Runde 6: captain picks and best buys

Serie Manager Runde 6 preview: captain picks, best buys and players to sell

Serie Manager Runde 6 is a full ten-match round from Saturday 10 October to Monday 12 October, and no club blanks: all twenty Serie A sides have a fixture in the current round window (pulled 10 October, 12:15 UTC). The transfer you make this week is about more than one weekend. Inter's [H]PAR → [A]BOL → [H]FIO is the strongest three-round run in the game, Juventus have the best defensive run, and Napoli and Atalanta both open at home. Behind them, Parma, Lecce, Venezia and Cagliari have programs worth leaving alone.

All projections below come from our model and are expressed in holdet points (k). Check the full Serie Manager player picks for every player, and the Serie A predicted lineups before the deadline. Last week's thinking is in the Serie Manager Runde 5 preview.

The programs: whose next three rounds are worth owning

Inter's program is the best in the game: 7.16 expected goals and 1.29 expected clean sheets across Runde 6-8, opening with an 84% win probability at home to Parma. The Bologna trip in Runde 7 is the one to plan around rather than avoid, because Fiorentina at home follows straight after. With the club cap at four players, Inter is where most squads can carry three or four.

Juventus have the best defensive program at 1.39 expected clean sheets: [A]CGL → [H]LAZ → [A]LEC. That is three winnable games, which makes Juventus the defence to buy into and hold. Napoli's [H]FRC → [A]VEN → [H]ROM (5.46 xG) and Atalanta's [H]VEN → [A]MIL → [H]FRC (5.29 xG) both open at home this round, before a tougher fixture later in the run.

At the other end, Parma's [A]INT → [H]TOR → [A]LAZ adds up to just 2.43 expected goals, Lecce's [H]BOL → [A]UDI → [H]JUV to 2.66, and Venezia go [A]ATA → [H]NAP → [A]GEN. The Serie Manager fixture schedule shows the full run.

The table is sorted by 3-round expected goals; 3-round CS is the expected number of clean sheets across the three fixtures. Every team has three fixtures in the window, and the middle of the table (Udinese down to Genoa) is left out.

Goalkeepers

Guglielmo Vicario (4.9m, JUV) is the goalkeeper to own for the next three rounds: 86k → 76k → 89k, 250k in total, the most of any keeper. His program [A]CGL → [H]LAZ → [A]LEC carries a 46% clean-sheet chance this round and stays strong all the way through. Only 4.3% of managers have him.

This round and the three-round view disagree slightly here. Josep Martinez (5.4m, INT) is the top keeper for Runde 6 alone at 90k, with Inter on a 55% clean-sheet chance against Parma, and runs 90k → 78k → 77k over [H]PAR → [A]BOL → [H]FIO for 246k. That is 4k behind Guglielmo Vicario over three rounds at a higher price, so Guglielmo Vicario is the buy if you plan to keep him; Josep Martinez only makes sense as an Inter defensive double-up.

The cheaper route is Lucas Perri (3.1m, TOR): 58k → 63k → 66k for 187k over [H]UDI → [A]PAR → [H]MON. The trajectory is rising, so he is a keeper you can buy and stop thinking about, and only 0.2% own him. Christos Mandas (3.6m, LAZ) scores 73k at home to Monza on [H]MON → [A]JUV → [H]PAR, but the Juventus trip drops him to 36k in Runde 7. Buy him only if you plan to hold through that dip.

Defenders

Federico Dimarco (5.8m, INT) is the best defender in the game by a distance: 141k → 91k → 90k, 322k over [H]PAR → [A]BOL → [H]FIO. His Runde 6 projection is the third-highest of any player, carried by 0.36 expected assists on top of the clean-sheet chance. 45.7% own him, so he protects your rank rather than winning you places. The Inter differential is Yann Aurel Bisseck (5.3m, INT) at 4.7% ownership: 104k → 66k → 60k for 230k, second among defenders across the three rounds. Carlos Augusto (4.4m, INT) is the cheaper Inter route at 81k → 59k → 57k on the same program, but he projects just 57 minutes this round, so he carries rotation risk.

For a defence you can hold, look at Juventus and [A]CGL → [H]LAZ → [A]LEC. Gleison Bremer (5.2m, JUV) runs 80k → 69k → 79k for 228k, and Pierre Kalulu (4.8m, JUV) 70k → 58k → 70k. Both trajectories hold up because the program does: neither drops below 58k in any of the three rounds. Pairing either with Guglielmo Vicario doubles up on the same clean sheets.

Giovanni Di Lorenzo (4.7m, NAP) has 79k → 73k → 44k over [H]FRC → [A]VEN → [H]ROM: a good buy for two rounds, but Roma at home costs him in Runde 8, so plan the sell before that. Wesley at Roma is the reverse case, with 48k this round at Como and 83k at home to Genoa next. He is a buy for Runde 7, not now.

Budget defenders: Mergim Vojvoda (3.0m, UDI) is the cheap hold, with 44k → 66k → 40k over [A]TOR → [H]LEC → [H]MIL for 150k, and the Lecce game in Runde 7 is his best week. Nuno Tavares (3.5m, LAZ) scores 68k at home to Monza, then just 19k at Juventus and 61k at home to Parma ([H]MON → [A]JUV → [H]PAR). He is a two-in-three pick, cheap enough to keep through the Juventus dip. Arthur Theate (2.5m, BOL) is the cheapest one-round play at 61k on [A]LEC → [H]INT → [A]CGL. Inter at home drops him to 12k, so treat him as a one-round rotation and sell again after Runde 6.

Midfielders

Christian Pulisic (6.3m, MIL) has the best three-round midfield total: 127k → 110k → 91k, 327k over [A]SAS → [H]ATA → [A]UDI, at 6.9% ownership. Milan are 52% favourites in Sassuolo and the program never collapses, so he is a buy you can hold. Kevin De Bruyne (7.3m, NAP) is close on 125k this round, but his run fades over [H]FRC → [A]VEN → [H]ROM: 125k → 94k → 52k. Christian Pulisic is the one to buy if you keep him; Kevin De Bruyne is a two-round play.

Inter's midfield rides the best program, [H]PAR → [A]BOL → [H]FIO. Nicolo Barella (6.5m, INT) runs 103k → 69k → 72k and is the safer of the two. Piotr Zielinski has a similar line (99k → 72k → 76k) but projects only 54 minutes this round, so he is the rotation risk. The four-per-club cap fills fast if you also want Federico Dimarco and Marcus Thuram.

Nico Paz (5.4m, COM) is owned by 50.2% and his program is heading upward: 80k → 92k → 103k over [H]ROM → [A]FIO → [H]SAS. Hold him. The bigger weeks come after this one.

Value midfielders: Nicolás González (3.8m, JUV) is the standout on [A]CGL → [H]LAZ → [A]LEC. 81k → 71k → 76k adds up to 228k, within 16k of Nicolo Barella at 2.7m less. He has taken over from Kerim Alajbegovic as the cheap Juventus midfielder: Kerim Alajbegovic now projects 46 minutes this round and 206k over the three. Charles De Ketelaere (4.5m, ATA) (107k → 44k → 97k on [H]VEN → [A]MIL → [H]FRC) and Mattia Zaccagni (4.1m, LAZ) (98k → 31k → 84k on [H]MON → [A]JUV → [H]PAR) both top 95k this round but crash in Runde 7. They are strong two-in-three holds, not set-and-forget picks. Franco Mastantuono (3.1m, FIO) at 77k → 48k → 41k over [A]GEN → [H]COM → [A]INT is a one-round option: buy for the Genoa trip, sell after.

Forwards

Marcus Thuram (8.6m, INT) tops the whole game: 159k → 104k → 103k, 366k over [H]PAR → [A]BOL → [H]FIO, and he stays above 100k in all three rounds. He has produced 0.80 expected goal involvements per 90 minutes this season, and at 10.1% ownership he is still a differential. Rasmus Højlund (8.4m, NAP) is close behind on 151k → 126k → 72k over [H]FRC → [A]VEN → [H]ROM. He is the strongest two-round buy, since Napoli's Runde 8 is Roma at home.

Randal Kolo Muani (5.3m, JUV) is the best value in the position: 127k → 107k → 110k, 344k over [A]CGL → [H]LAZ → [A]LEC. That is the flattest high trajectory in the game, backed by 0.86 expected goal involvements per 90 this season, so he is a hold rather than a rotation. Goncalo Ramos (5.5m, MIL) (117k → 104k → 88k) is owned by 47.4% and stays a hold over [A]SAS → [H]ATA → [A]UDI.

Hidden gem: Giovanni Simeone (4.0m, TOR) at 1.6% ownership, with 73k → 67k → 91k for 232k over [H]UDI → [A]PAR → [H]MON. His best week is Runde 8, so buying now gets all three rounds in.

Hold Donyell Malen (8.2m, ROM) through this round if you own him. He scores 97k at Como, and his Runde 7 at home to Genoa ([A]COM → [H]GEN → [A]NAP) is the highest projection of any player in that round at 165k. Paulo Dybala (5.0m) rides the same Genoa game at 120k, but 73k now and 55k in Naples make him a Runde 7 buy rather than a Runde 6 one.

Serie Manager Runde 6 captain picks

Captain Marcus Thuram (8.6m, INT). At 159k he is the highest projection of the round, Inter have an 84% win probability at home to Parma, and Parma have a 5% clean-sheet chance. Rasmus Højlund (8.4m, NAP) at 151k is the alternative, at home to Frosinone. Federico Dimarco is a defender captain option on 141k, and after him come Christian Pulisic, Randal Kolo Muani and Lautaro Martinez on 127k.

Looking further ahead, Donyell Malen (165k), Rasmus Højlund (126k) and Paulo Dybala (120k) lead Runde 7, and in Runde 8 Randal Kolo Muani (110k), Lautaro Martinez (106k), Marcus Thuram and Nico Paz (both 103k) are bunched together. Owning Marcus Thuram plus one of the Napoli or Roma forwards covers the captaincy for the next three rounds.

Who to sell

Lautaro Martinez (11.2m, INT, 25.7% owned) is the sell for Marcus Thuram. Parma at home is a good fixture, his 127k is a solid score, and his 1.12 expected goal involvements per 90 this season are the best in the Inter attack. The problem is minutes: he projects 49 minutes this round against Marcus Thuram's 72, and Marcus Thuram projects 32k more on the same [H]PAR → [A]BOL → [H]FIO. Lautaro Martinez edges back ahead in Runde 8 (106k vs 103k), but Marcus Thuram wins the three rounds 366k to 330k and costs 2.6m less. Because it is a swap within Inter, the club cap is not affected. Why now: the gap between them is largest this round.

Anastasios Douvikas (5.5m, COM, 25.6% owned) runs 69k → 77k → 79k over [H]ROM → [A]FIO → [H]SAS. That is not a bad run, just well short of Randal Kolo Muani's 344k at a similar price. Why now: Juventus's run starts this round, with Randal Kolo Muani at 127k in Cagliari, so the switch is worth 58k in Runde 6 alone.

Andy Diouf (3.9m, INT, 22.2% owned) is the timing case. He scores 79k at home to Parma, then drops to 52k and 49k. You can wait a round on this one: keep him for the Parma game and sell after Runde 6, unless you need the slot now for a Juventus or Napoli buy.

For the full solver view of the next rounds, see the Serie Manager optimal teams. The bookmaker lines behind the win and clean-sheet numbers are on the market probabilities page.

FAQ

Who should I captain in Serie Manager Runde 6?

Marcus Thuram is the best captain at 159k, with Inter at home to Parma on an 84% win probability. Rasmus Højlund (151k, Napoli at home to Frosinone) is the alternative, and Federico Dimarco (141k) is the defender option.

Which defenders are best for Serie Manager Runde 6?

Federico Dimarco (141k) and Yann Aurel Bisseck (104k) from Inter lead the round. Over three rounds, Juventus's Gleison Bremer (228k) has the most dependable program. Mergim Vojvoda, Nuno Tavares and Arthur Theate are the budget plays.

Should I sell Lautaro Martinez before Serie Manager Runde 6?

Yes, if Marcus Thuram is the replacement. Marcus Thuram projects 159k against Lautaro Martinez's 127k this round, wins Runde 6-8 by 36k and costs 2.6m less. Swapping within Inter also keeps you inside the four-per-club cap.

Who are the best differentials in Serie Manager Runde 6?

Yann Aurel Bisseck (4.7% owned, 230k over three rounds), Giovanni Simeone (1.6%, 232k), Nicolás González (4.1%, 228k) and Guglielmo Vicario (4.3%, 250k) are the strongest low-ownership picks with programs behind them.

Is Randal Kolo Muani worth buying for Serie Manager Runde 6?

Yes. Randal Kolo Muani projects 127k this round and 344k over [A]CGL → [H]LAZ → [A]LEC at 5.3m, the best value of any forward, and he holds above 100k in all three rounds.

More Serie Manager analysis is in our Serie Manager preview hub and the fantasy guides.

This preview was written by TheFantasyTool AI.