Serie Manager Runde 5: best buys and captain picks

Serie Manager Runde 5 preview: best buys, captain picks and differentials

Runde 5 of Serie Manager runs from Friday 18 September to Sunday 20 September, and the round window holds all ten Serie A matches — every one of the twenty clubs plays exactly once, so nobody blanks. That makes this a pure programme round: the only question is whose next three rounds are worth a transfer fee on the Serie Manager player picks board, because the move you make before Friday is the one you carry into Runde 6 and Runde 7.

Three things define it on the current numbers. The biggest single-round projection in the game and the biggest three-round total belong to different players at opposite ends of the price list. The club with the best fixture of the week has one of the steepest drop-offs behind it. And one of the most-owned midfielders in Serie Manager is now projected for zero minutes in each of the next two rounds, which makes him the easiest transfer on the board.

The programmes: whose Runde 5–7 is worth owning

Inter carry the strongest three-round attacking programme in the game at 6.33 expected goals across [A]ROM → [H]PAR → [A]BOL, and their best fixture in that run is not this one — it is the Parma match in Runde 6. Juventus own the best defensive programme at 1.27 expected clean sheets from three matches ([H]ATA → [A]CGL → [H]LAZ), the highest figure any side carries, with Napoli just behind on 1.15 across [A]FIO → [H]FRC → [A]VEN. Those are the two runs to buy into if you want to make one transfer and then stop thinking about it.

Milan are the exception that proves the point. Their [H]LEC → [A]SAS → [H]ATA is the second-best three-round attack in the game at 5.56 expected goals, but almost all of it is front-loaded. Milan – Lecce is the fixture of the round on every metric we publish: a 76% win probability, 2.37 expected goals and a 53% clean sheet chance, the only shut-out chance in Runde 5 above 40%. Lecce project 0.63 goals and a 9% clean sheet chance, the lowest in the round on both counts. Behind that one match Milan travel to Sassuolo and host Atalanta, and the defensive numbers fall away. Own the Milan fixture by all means — own it knowing you are buying one match, not three.

Two more programmes matter. Como get [A]FRC → [H]ROM → [A]FIO, which front-loads the same way — 63% favourites at Frosinone on Sunday, then two much harder matches, and a three-round clean sheet total of only 0.91. Udinese are the quiet one: [H]CGL → [A]TOR → [H]LEC is three genuinely playable fixtures rather than one good one, 1.03 expected clean sheets across them, and almost nobody owns any of it. The big match of the round is Roma – Inter, and the model refuses to split it: Roma 37% to win, Inter 37%, with both defences under a 25% clean sheet chance.

The table is sorted by the three-round column rather than by this week, because that is the order that should drive a transfer. The 3-round clean sheet figure is a count of expected shut-outs from three matches, not a percentage. Every club has exactly three fixtures in the window, so the totals compare like for like. The full round-by-round grid is on the Serie Manager schedule page, and the win, goal and clean sheet probabilities behind it are on the market probabilities page.

Goalkeepers for Runde 5

Mike Maignan (4.76m, Milan) is the highest-projected keeper in the game this week at 88k, on the back of that 53% clean sheet chance. His programme is [H]LEC → [A]SAS → [H]ATA and the shape of it is the whole story: 88k → 75k → 49k. He is a clear buy for this Runde and a fine hold for one more, but he is not a set-and-forget keeper — buy him with the round you intend to sell him already in mind. He is 20.8% owned.

If you would rather buy the programme than the week, Guglielmo Vicario (4.80m, Juventus) is the pick. He is only 69k this Runde, but 226k over the three and 270k on the six-round decay-weighted score — the best of any goalkeeper in the game — because Juventus run [H]ATA → [A]CGL → [H]LAZ and carry Serie A's best expected clean sheet total at 1.27. He is owned by 3.9%. Buying him now rather than in Runde 6 costs the same fee and gets you the whole run instead of two thirds of it, and his line rises rather than falls: 69k → 87k → 71k.

The value route is Christos Mandas (3.38m, Lazio) at 66k and 19.4 points per million, with 178k over [A]VEN → [H]MON → [A]JUV on 5.6% ownership — though the Juventus trip in Runde 7 is where that run stops, so treat him as a two-round keeper with the exit booked. Maduka Okoye (3.64m, Udinese) is the steadier cheap option: 57k now, 176k over three on [H]CGL → [A]TOR → [H]LEC, and at 0.9% ownership nobody else has him. His is the rare budget programme that improves rather than decays — 57k → 49k → 70k. You can sort the whole keeper pool by round on the Serie Manager player picks page.

Defenders for Runde 5

Start with the programme rather than the week. Federico Dimarco (5.81m, Inter) is the best three-round defender in the game by a distance at 245k, on a rising line of 56k → 121k → 68k across [A]ROM → [H]PAR → [A]BOL, and he is 40.1% owned. His 56k at Roma is a modest return and this preview is not going to pretend otherwise — but the Parma match behind it is where Inter's programme pays, and the fee does not get cheaper for waiting a week. If you are buying one defender and keeping him, it is him.

Strahinja Pavlovic (5.16m, Milan) is the top-projected defender in the round at 85k, with a 0.50 clean sheet projection and 85 projected minutes. But his trajectory is 85k → 61k → 32k on [H]LEC → [A]SAS → [H]ATA, so he is explicitly a Runde 5 buy with a named exit: sell him again after Runde 6. Mario Gila (3.68m, Milan) is the same fixture for less at 80k and 21.8 points per million on 3.5% ownership. Mind the cap — Serie Manager allows a maximum of four players from any one club, so a Milan defensive block has to be budgeted against the Milan attackers below.

The defenders to actually hold are Gleison Bremer (4.93m, Juventus) and Giovanni Di Lorenzo (4.73m, Napoli). Gleison Bremer is 65k this week, well behind the Milan pair, but 201k over the three and 234k weighted, because [H]ATA → [A]CGL → [H]LAZ is the best defensive run in Serie A right now. Giovanni Di Lorenzo is the same idea in Napoli's colours — 59k this Runde but 210k over [A]FIO → [H]FRC → [A]VEN on 4.0% ownership, with his best match of the run in Runde 6 rather than this one (59k → 85k → 66k).

The differential of the position is Mergim Vojvoda (3.04m, Udinese). He is 59k this week but 173k over the next three on 0.3% ownership, because [H]CGL → [A]TOR → [H]LEC is three fixtures worth playing rather than one — and his best round of the three is the last one (59k → 44k → 70k). At 19.4 points per million that is the cheapest route into a good run anywhere on the board. Nuno Tavares (3.28m, Lazio) is the attacking-fullback version at 63k and 150k over [A]VEN → [H]MON → [A]JUV, with 0.15 projected assists.

Budget defenders: Emil Holm (2.98m, Bologna) projects 63k at 21.2 points per million and Arthur Theate (2.51m, Bologna) 51k at 20.4, both on [H]TOR → [A]LEC → [H]INT with a 0.35 clean sheet projection at home to Torino. Both hold up through Runde 6 (63k → 60k → 25k for Emil Holm) before the Inter match bites in Runde 7, so treat them as two-round picks with the exit already booked. At this price the 1% fee is small enough that a two-round stay pays for itself.

Midfielders for Runde 5

Nico Paz (5.42m, Como) is the top-projected midfielder at 126k and the most-owned player in the game at 52.9%. He projects 0.39 goals and 0.21 assists at Frosinone, and he is still fifth in the position over three rounds at 256k. But his programme is [A]FRC → [H]ROM → [A]FIO and it softens hard after Sunday — 126k → 61k → 68k — so he is template for this round rather than a player you buy and forget.

Christian Pulisic (6.07m, Milan) is the biggest riser in the position at 121k, third-highest in the whole game, with 0.42 projected goals and a 0.58 penalty share against the round's weakest defence. The caveat is real and you should price it in: 53 projected minutes on a 0.59 starter factor, so he is the Milan attacker most likely to be rotated. His programme is [H]LEC → [A]SAS → [H]ATA at 266k over three — front-loaded like the rest of the club, and the reason to take the minutes risk is this week rather than the run. He is only 3.2% owned.

Kerim Alajbegovic (3.59m, Juventus) is the horizon buy in this position and the one most managers do not have. He is 93k this week, 275k over the next three and 308k weighted, on 5.0% ownership at 25.8 points per million. His programme is [H]ATA → [A]CGL → [H]LAZ — the best defensive run in the game attached to a side that also scores — and his trajectory barely moves: 93k → 104k → 78k. That flat, high line is what a hold looks like, and it is why he is a better transfer than several players who beat him this Friday.

The hidden gem is Piotr Zielinski (5.96m, Inter), owned by 2.7%. He tops the whole position over three rounds at 279k — ahead of Nico Paz — because he is Inter's penalty taker on a 0.83 share and [A]ROM → [H]PAR → [A]BOL is the best attacking programme in Serie A. His line is 65k → 137k → 77k: a fair week at Roma, then the single biggest midfield projection of Runde 6. Buying him before the Parma match rather than after is the entire argument.

Federico Bernardeschi (4.02m, Bologna) is the other one nobody owns, at 1.0%. He is Bologna's penalty taker on a 0.88 share, projects 79 minutes with 0.34 goals and 0.21 assists at home to Torino, and carries 247k over [H]TOR → [A]LEC → [H]INT — two home matches around a trip to Lecce, and a 101k → 92k → 55k line that holds up. Armand Laurienté (3.68m, Sassuolo) at 87k and 190k over three is the pick for anyone who does not want a third Milan or Como asset, and Mattia Zaccagni (3.80m, Lazio) deserves a line for a 0.93 penalty share and 215k over [A]VEN → [H]MON → [A]JUV, with the Juventus trip in Runde 7 the point at which you sell him.

Three more worth a line. Samuel Chukwueze (4.29m, Milan) is the aggressive Milan route at 98k and 22.8 points per million on only 4.6% ownership, though a 98k → 67k → 37k trajectory makes him a two-round play at most. Kevin De Bruyne (7.33m, Napoli) scores 82k this Runde and 267k over [A]FIO → [H]FRC → [A]VEN at 4.1% ownership — a premium with a flat programme that almost nobody is talking about. And Matteo Politano (5.21m, Napoli) is the cheaper way into the same run: 60k now but 241k over three, with 104k his best round of the window.

Forwards for Runde 5

Goncalo Ramos (5.33m, Milan) is the highest-projected player in the game this Runde at 154k. He projects 0.59 goals and 0.11 assists in 84 minutes against the weakest defence in the round, and holds a 0.41 penalty share on top. His programme is [H]LEC → [A]SAS → [H]ATA, worth 334k over the three, but the shape is 154k → 109k → 71k — the best pick this week and a fading one after it. Own him now and revisit in a fortnight rather than assuming he stays. He is 39.9% owned.

Rasmus Højlund (8.35m, Napoli) now carries the highest three-round total of any player in Serie Manager at 360k. He is 101k this week at Fiorentina, on a 0.80 penalty share and a line of 101k → 153k → 105k that peaks at home to Frosinone in Runde 6, with [A]FIO → [H]FRC → [A]VEN behind that. If you want one expensive forward who never needs another thought, he is it — and because the 1% fee on a player at this price is substantial, he is a buy-to-keep or not at all. He is 19.7% owned.

Lautaro Martinez (10.91m, Inter) is the other premium worth the fee, at 335k over [A]ROM → [H]PAR → [A]BOL. He is only 81k this week at Roma, outside the top five, but the middle fixture is the one to plan around: Inter at home to Parma is the single biggest projected score anywhere in Runde 6 at 170k. He is 25.7% owned. The reason to buy now rather than next week is that the fee does not get cheaper and 81k at Roma is not a wasted round while you wait. Marcus Thuram (8.47m, Inter) is the same programme for less at 293k over three on only 5.3% ownership.

Randal Kolo Muani (5.19m, Juventus) is the best blend of price and programme in the position: 96k this week, 262k over three, 18.5 points per million, a 0.81 penalty share, and [H]ATA → [A]CGL → [H]LAZ behind him. He is 16.8% owned. Donyell Malen (8.20m, Roma) is the most-owned forward in the game at 48.6% and justifies it with 299k over [H]INT → [A]COM → [H]GEN, a 0.67 penalty share, and his best round of the three saved for Runde 7 at 129k — so he is a hold, not a sell, whatever this weekend looks like.

The two cheap forwards with real programmes are Keinan Davis (3.65m, Udinese) and Roberto Piccoli (4.12m, Bologna). Keinan Davis is 79k now and 235k over three — better than several forwards at double the price — because [H]CGL → [A]TOR → [H]LEC is three playable fixtures and he holds a 0.82 penalty share on 1.6% ownership. Roberto Piccoli projects 71k and 184k on [H]TOR → [A]LEC → [H]INT at 0.4% ownership, with the Lecce trip in Runde 6 his best match of the three.

If you only want one round, Kieron Bowie (3.22m, Sassuolo) is the cheapest serious option at 83k and 25.6 points per million on a full 85 projected minutes — but [A]MON → [H]MIL → [A]FRC falls away immediately (83k → 23k → 54k), so buy him for Monza and book the exit. One to buy a week early: Gianluca Scamacca (5.21m, Atalanta) is only 32k this Runde at Juventus, but 188k over three, because his programme is [A]JUV → [H]VEN → [A]MIL and the Venezia match projects 93k. If you can carry the weak opener, he is the cheapest route into a strong Runde 6 and Runde 7, and he is 4.0% owned.

Best captain picks for Runde 5

The captain scores double in Serie Manager, so this is the single largest decision of the round. These are the top eight by Runde 5 projection, with the three-round total beside them so you can see which of them is also worth keeping — the full ranking is on the player picks page.

Captain Goncalo Ramos. He has the best fixture in the round, a pool-topping 0.59 goal projection and 84 projected minutes; doubled, that is roughly 307k from one slot, and no other player is within 27k of him. Nico Paz at 126k is the alternative for anyone who does not own him and does not want to pay the fee to get him. Christian Pulisic at 121k has the third-highest ceiling but the thinnest minutes of the three, so he is the higher-variance armband.

Captaincy is a plan rather than a pick, and the armband moves next week. In Runde 6 Lautaro Martinez projects 170k at home to Parma, Rasmus Højlund 153k and Marcus Thuram 144k, while Goncalo Ramos falls to 109k; in Runde 7 the best armband in the game is Donyell Malen at 129k. So if you are buying a premium this week intending to captain him more than once, Rasmus Højlund and Randal Kolo Muani are the two whose programmes carry across both rounds — a better reason to own them than either week on its own.

Who to sell before Runde 5

Hakan Calhanoglu (6.46m, Inter) is the clearest sale in the game and there is nothing at all to wait for. He is owned by 20.5% of managers, and the model now projects him zero minutes in Runde 5 and again in Runde 6 — -5k and -5k respectively, and 13k across [A]ROM → [H]PAR → [A]BOL. Inter carry the best attacking programme in Serie A; his share of it is the problem. Every round you hold him is a round of nothing, so the why-now is simply that there is no better week coming.

Yan Couto (3.28m, Como) is the interesting sell, because his Runde 5 is perfectly fine. He projects 56k at Frosinone, Como are 63% favourites, and 35.1% of managers own him — this is not a bad week for him. But his programme is [A]FRC → [H]ROM → [A]FIO and his trajectory is 56k → 27k → 36k, so the choice is selling into a decent score now or selling out of a poor one in seven days. The fee is identical either way, and the Como slot is better spent on the attacking end of the same fixture.

Anastasios Douvikas (5.52m, Como) is the same argument one price bracket up. 90k at Frosinone is a respectable return and nobody should pretend otherwise, but he projects only 48 minutes on a 0.48 starter factor, and behind Sunday his line reads 90k → 43k → 50k. At 31.2% ownership he is a popular hold whose reason to be held expires this weekend — sell into the good fixture rather than out of the bad one. The same logic applies to Alphadjo Cissè (2.39m, Milan), whose 33.0 points per million is still the best ratio in the game — but on 50 projected minutes and a 79k → 56k → 35k run he is a Runde 5 asset, not a Runde 7 one, and at his price the fee makes that an easy round trip.

Emanuele Lulli (2.88m, Roma) at 12.6% ownership is the last one, and he is the opposite case. He projects 15k in Runde 5 and 69k over [H]INT → [A]COM → [H]GEN, which is less than budget defenders at a fraction of his ownership return over the same window. No fixture in that run rescues it, so unlike the two above there is no good week to sell into — which makes now as good as it gets.

Hold, do not sell — three Runde 5 traps

Three names look like sells on the Runde 5 number alone and are not. Charles De Ketelaere (4.55m, Atalanta) projects only 36k this week but 87k in Runde 6 and 183k over the three, because [A]JUV → [H]VEN → [A]MIL turns kind straight after the Juventus trip. Alessandro Bastoni (4.75m, Inter) projects 36k at Roma and 176k over three on 13.8% ownership — Inter carry the best attacking programme in the game and his share of it arrives in Runde 6, not this week. Josep Martinez (5.34m, Inter) is the same story in goal: 53k now, 102k against Parma, 223k over the run. Selling any of the three costs a fee now and a repurchase fee later for one quiet round.

Before you commit, cross-check the starting elevens on the predicted lineups page, and let the solver build the round for you on the optimal teams page, which solves the squad live against these exact projections across whichever rounds you choose.

Runde 5 summary

Own Goncalo Ramos and captain him — that part is simple. The round is decided after that, in the cheap slots and in whether you buy this week's fixture or the next three. Federico Dimarco is the best three-round defender in the game and Rasmus Højlund the best three-round forward, and both of them project less this Friday than players you would sell to get them. Piotr Zielinski and Kerim Alajbegovic are the buys that cost a fee once and pay for three rounds; Federico Bernardeschi and Mergim Vojvoda are the differentials with genuine ceiling. And the Milan and Como assets are worth owning this week precisely because you already plan to sell them next — just remember the four-per-club cap when you stack them. More rounds and more analysis in the Serie Manager preview hub, and you can read last week's Serie Manager Runde 4 preview to see how the picture has moved. Full guides are in our fantasy guides.

FAQ

Who should I captain in Serie Manager Runde 5?

Goncalo Ramos (5.33m, Milan) is the captain pick at 154k, the highest projection in the game this round. Milan host Lecce as 76% favourites with 2.37 expected goals, and he projects 0.59 goals in 84 minutes, so doubled that is around 307k from one slot. Nico Paz at 126k and Christian Pulisic at 121k are the alternatives.

Should I sell Hakan Calhanoglu before Runde 5?

Yes, and there is no better week to wait for. The model projects him zero minutes for Runde 5 and Runde 6, worth -5k and -5k, and 13k in total across [A]ROM → [H]PAR → [A]BOL. At 20.5% ownership he is one of the most widely-held midfielders in Serie Manager with no route to points in the next fortnight.

Which cheap players are best for Serie Manager Runde 5?

Kerim Alajbegovic (3.59m, Juventus) is the standout at 25.8 points per million with 275k over three rounds on [H]ATA → [A]CGL → [H]LAZ. Kieron Bowie (3.22m, Sassuolo) returns 83k at 25.6 for a single round, Emil Holm (2.98m, Bologna) 63k at 21.2, and Mergim Vojvoda (3.04m, Udinese) is the cheap pick with the best three-round programme at 173k.

Best differentials for Serie Manager Runde 5?

Piotr Zielinski (5.96m, Inter) at 2.7% ownership is the pick — he leads all midfielders over Runde 5–7 at 279k and takes Inter's penalties on a 0.83 share. Federico Bernardeschi (4.02m, Bologna) at 1.0% is 101k this round on a 0.88 penalty share and 247k over [H]TOR → [A]LEC → [H]INT, and Mergim Vojvoda (3.04m, Udinese) at 0.3% is the defensive version of the same idea.

Is Rasmus Højlund worth buying for Serie Manager Runde 5?

As a three-round buy, yes. He projects 101k at Fiorentina this week, which is outside the top three, but 360k across [A]FIO → [H]FRC → [A]VEN — the highest three-round total of any player in Serie Manager — driven by 153k at home to Frosinone in Runde 6. If you want points this weekend specifically, Goncalo Ramos scores better.

This preview was written by TheFantasyTool AI.