Serie Manager Runde 5: best buys and captain picks

Serie Manager Runde 5 preview: best buys, captain picks and differentials

Runde 5 of Serie Manager Efterår 2026 runs from Friday 18 September to Sunday 20 September, and all ten Serie A matches sit inside the window — every one of the twenty clubs plays exactly once, so nobody blanks. What decides the round is not who plays, it is where the model puts the goals: Milan at home to Lecce is the standout fixture of the round on every metric we publish, and the two best captain options in the game both start their weekend against the two weakest defences in it.

The obvious names are obvious for a reason and most managers already own them. The points are won in the six or seven squad slots after them, so this preview spends most of its time on the mid-priced and cheap picks whose Runde 5 numbers are far ahead of their ownership.

Runde 5 fixture overview

Milan – Lecce is the fixture of the round and it is not close. The model gives Milan a 73% win probability, 2.24 expected goals and a 53% clean sheet chance — the only side in Runde 5 above 40% for a shut-out. Lecce are projected for 0.64 goals and an 11% clean sheet chance, the lowest in the round.

Behind it, Frosinone – Como gives the visitors a 62% win probability and 2.13 expected goals, and Juventus – Atalanta hands the home side 58% and a 38% clean sheet chance. Atalanta are the third-weakest team in the round by clean sheet chance (15%) and are projected for under one goal.

The big game is Roma – Inter, and the model refuses to split it: Roma 37% to win, Inter 36%, with both defences under a 25% clean sheet chance. That is a round to be underweight on both, and it matters more than it looks — see the sell section.

The full round-by-round grid is on the Serie Manager schedule page, and the win, goal and clean sheet probabilities behind this table are on the market probabilities page.

Goalkeepers for Runde 5

Mike Maignan (4.76m, Milan) is the highest-projected keeper in the game this week at 91k, on the back of that 53% clean sheet chance. He is the only keeper in Runde 5 whose fixture carries a better-than-even chance of a shut-out, and at 19.2 points per million he is not even expensive for what he delivers.

The value alternative is Jean Butez (4.17m, Como) at 81k — 19.3 points per million, marginally better than Mike Maignan, in a fixture where Como are 62% favourites. Over the next six rounds his decay-weighted score is 241k, slightly ahead of Mike Maignan's 238k, so he is not just a one-week punt.

If you want the cheapest route into the round, Justin Bijlow (3.02m, Genoa) is the pick. He projects 62k against a 36% clean sheet chance at Parma, which is 20.7 points per million — the best ratio of any keeper in Runde 5 — and he is owned by under 1% of managers. Christos Mandas (3.38m, Lazio) at 65k is the same idea a little safer.

One for the planners: Guglielmo Vicario (4.80m, Juventus) is only 73k this week, but his six-round weighted score of 267k is the best of any goalkeeper in the game. Juventus have the kindest medium-term programme of any side and he is owned by under 4%. You can sort the whole keeper pool by round on the Serie Manager player picks page.

Defenders for Runde 5

Strahinja Pavlovic (5.16m, Milan) is the top-projected defender in the round at 85k. He carries a 0.50 clean sheet projection plus a real goal threat from set pieces, and at 86 projected minutes he is as close to nailed as the position gets. The catch is that Milan's programme softens after this week, so he is a Runde 5 buy rather than a six-round hold.

If you want the same fixture for less, Mario Gila (3.68m, Milan) projects 76k at 20.7 points per million and is owned by under 3%, and Koni De Winter (4.17m, Milan) is at 75k. Remember the cap: Serie Manager allows a maximum of four players from any one club, so a Milan defensive stack has to be budgeted against Goncalo Ramos and the Milan midfielders below.

The Como pair are the best-value route in. Jacobo Ramon (3.15m, Como) projects 67k for 21.3 points per million — the best ratio of any defender in the round — and Álex Valle (3.71m, Como) is right behind at 66k. Jacobo Ramon is already 16% owned, so Álex Valle at 5% is the differential of the two.

For a hold rather than a one-week move, Gleison Bremer (4.93m, Juventus) at 67k has a six-round weighted score of 224k and a run that only gets easier — [H]Atalanta → [A]Cagliari → [H]Lazio → [A]Lecce, with clean sheet chances of 38%, 40%, 43% and 50%. Mehmet Zeki Celik (4.18m, Juventus) is the cheaper version at 62k, and Pierre Kalulu (4.72m, Juventus) is the third option in the same block.

Budget defender of the round: Torbjoern Lysaker Heggem (2.46m, Bologna). He projects 51k at home to Torino for 20.9 points per million, with 84 projected minutes and a 35% clean sheet projection, and only 2% of managers own him. At that price the transfer fee is around 25k — so even a two-round stay pays for itself. Mergim Vojvoda (3.06m, Udinese) is the other one to know: 57k, 18.7 points per million, and effectively unowned at 0.2%, in a fixture where Udinese carry the second-best clean sheet chance in the round at 39%.

Midfielders for Runde 5

Nico Paz (5.32m, Como) is the top-projected midfielder at 120k and the most owned player in the game at 53%. He projects 0.36 goals and 0.17 assists at Frosinone, and his six-round weighted score of 315k is the best of any midfielder. He is template, not a differential — but he is template because the numbers say so.

Alphadjo Cissè (2.39m, Milan) is the single best points-per-million play in the entire game this week: 99k from a 2.39m price tag, which is 41.3 points per million. Nothing else in the pool is within ten points of that. He projects 62 minutes with 0.26 goals and 0.13 assists against the round's weakest defence. At 27% ownership he is no longer a secret, but at that price he is close to a free slot.

Hidden gem: Federico Bernardeschi (4.02m, Bologna) at 91k, owned by 1.0% of managers. He is Bologna's penalty taker with a 0.87 penalty share, projects 78 minutes with 0.30 goals and 0.12 assists at home to Torino, and his six-round weighted score of 267k is higher than several midfielders at twice the ownership. The penalty share is what makes him a ceiling pick rather than just a solid one.

Kerim Alajbegovic (3.59m, Juventus) is the other one to act on: 91k this week, 25.4 points per million, 5% ownership, and a six-round weighted score of 285k. His minutes are the risk — 55 projected — so he is a ceiling pick, not a floor pick, but on Juventus's programme he is the best cheap route into that side.

Beyond those, Samuel Chukwueze (4.29m, Milan) projects 90k, Martin Baturina (5.41m, Como) 90k, Ruben Loftus-Cheek (4.06m, Milan) 88k and Chico Conceicao (6.20m, Juventus) 88k with a 280k six-round weighted score. Armand Laurienté (3.68m, Sassuolo) at 83k and 22.4 points per million is the pick for anyone who does not want a third Milan or Como asset — 84 projected minutes, a 0.34 penalty share and only 4% ownership.

Mattia Zaccagni (3.80m, Lazio) deserves a line of his own: 81k, a 0.93 penalty share — the highest of any midfielder in the round — 84 projected minutes at Venezia, and 8% ownership. Matteo Cancellieri (3.83m, Lazio) is the same fixture at 75k and 0.3% ownership if you want the pure differential.

Forwards for Runde 5

Goncalo Ramos (5.33m, Milan) is the highest-projected player in the game this week at 156k, and it is not a marginal lead — the next name is 30k behind. He projects 0.60 goals and 0.12 assists in 82 minutes, holds a 0.76 penalty share, and is attached to a side the model has at 2.24 expected goals. At 5.33m and 38% ownership he is both the best pick and the safest one. Trajectory: 156k → 97k → 75k → 85k, with a six-round weighted score of 371k.

Anastasios Douvikas (5.47m, Como) is second at 125k, projecting 0.44 goals and 0.15 assists at Frosinone. He is 31% owned and his 314k weighted score keeps him relevant past this week.

Randal Kolo Muani (5.19m, Juventus) is the buy of the round at this position. He projects 111k, carries a 0.90 penalty share — the highest in the whole forward pool — and his six-round weighted score of 317k is ahead of Anastasios Douvikas's. He is owned by 17%, which makes him the highest-ceiling name in the game that most managers do not have.

Rasmus Højlund (8.35m, Napoli) is the premium hold: 111k this week and a 381k six-round weighted score, the best of any forward outside Inter. His programme is the reason — 111k → 128k → 111k → 78k. He is expensive, and at 8.35m the transfer fee to move him on later is roughly 84k, so buy him to keep him or not at all.

Hidden gem: Roberto Piccoli (4.12m, Bologna) at 87k with 0.3% ownership. He projects 0.33 goals in 74 minutes at home to Torino, 21.2 points per million, and his 253k weighted score is better than several forwards at ten times the ownership.

Budget forwards: Gustavo Varela (3.21m, Monza) projects 77k for 24.1 points per million at under 1% ownership, and Lorenzo Colombo (3.02m, Genoa) is at 65k with a 0.81 penalty share — a cheap penalty taker is exactly the kind of slot filler that wins a round. Milutin Osmajic (2.61m, Genoa) is the cheapest of the three at 60k and 22.9 points per million. On a 3m forward the transfer fee is around 30k, so any of these is cheap enough to take for one or two rounds and move on.

Best captain picks for Runde 5

The captain scores double in Serie Manager, so this is the largest single decision of the round.

Captain Goncalo Ramos. The 30k gap to the next name is built on the three things that matter together: the best fixture in the round, the biggest goal projection in the pool at 0.60, and a 0.76 penalty share. Doubled, that is a projection of roughly 311k from one slot.

Anastasios Douvikas is the sensible alternative for anyone who does not own Goncalo Ramos and does not want to pay the fee to get him. Nico Paz is the third option and the lowest-risk one on minutes, though his ceiling is lower than the two forwards ahead of him.

Think one round ahead as well. In Runde 6 the picture flips completely: Lautaro Martinez projects 155k at home to Parma and Francesco Pio Esposito 150k in the same fixture, with Inter at a 78% win probability. If you are buying a premium forward this week with an eye on keeping him, Randal Kolo Muani and Rasmus Højlund are the two whose programmes hold up best across both.

Who to sell before Runde 5

Scott McTominay (7.55m, Napoli) is flagged unavailable with a return date of 17 October. He projects a negative score in Runde 5 and Runde 6, and he is 7% owned. That is a straight sell — the fee on a 7.55m player is around 76k, which he will cost you in two rounds of nothing.

Kenan Yildiz (7.55m, Juventus) is the same case and worse: unavailable with a return date of 17 November, negative projections for the next four rounds, 7% owned. Nobody should be carrying him.

Thomas Kristensen (3.48m, Atalanta) is 7% owned and the model gives him essentially no minutes at all across Runde 5 to Runde 8 — projections of 1k, 0k, -1k and 0k. He is a dead slot.

The broader Atalanta point: they travel to Juventus as 18% underdogs with a 15% clean sheet chance and are projected for under one goal. Combined with Runde 7 away at Milan, this is not a side to be overweight on.

Andy Diouf (3.73m, Inter) at 21% ownership and Emanuele Lulli (2.78m, Roma) at 13% are the two mid-price names whose Runde 5 projections — 24k and 21k — do not justify a starting slot in a round where 50k-plus is available at the same price.

Hold, do not sell, before Runde 5

Two names look like sells on the Runde 5 number alone and are not. Federico Dimarco (5.77m, Inter, 40% owned) projects only 56k at Roma but jumps to 114k at home to Parma in Runde 6, and his 287k six-round weighted score is the best of any defender in the game. Marco Carnesecchi (4.25m, Atalanta) projects 36k this week and 82k next. Selling either costs a fee now and a repurchase fee later for a single bad round.

Before you commit, cross-check the starting elevens on the predicted lineups page and let the solver build the round for you on the optimal teams page, which solves the squad live against these exact projections.

Runde 5 summary

Own Goncalo Ramos and captain him. Beyond that, the round is decided by the cheap slots: Alphadjo Cissè at 2.39m, Torbjoern Lysaker Heggem at 2.46m, Milutin Osmajic at 2.61m and Gustavo Varela at 3.21m are all projecting well above what their price and their ownership imply, and the 1% transfer fee on players in that bracket is small enough that taking them for a single round is a live strategy. The two differentials with genuine ceiling are Federico Bernardeschi on penalties for Bologna and Randal Kolo Muani on penalties for Juventus.

More rounds and more analysis in the Serie Manager preview hub, and you can read last week's Serie Manager Runde 4 preview for how the picture has moved. Full guides are in our fantasy guides section.

FAQ

Who should I captain in Serie Manager Runde 5?

Goncalo Ramos (5.33m, Milan). He is the highest-projected player in the game for Runde 5 at 156k, 30k clear of the next name, with a 0.60 goal projection and a 0.76 penalty share at home to Lecce — the weakest defence in the round. Anastasios Douvikas at 125k and Nico Paz at 120k are the alternatives.

Which budget players are best for Serie Manager Runde 5?

Alphadjo Cissè (2.39m, Milan) is the standout at 99k, which is 41.3 points per million — the best ratio in the game. In defence Torbjoern Lysaker Heggem (2.46m, Bologna) projects 51k at 20.9 points per million, and up front Milutin Osmajic (2.61m, Genoa) is at 60k and Gustavo Varela (3.21m, Monza) at 77k.

Should I sell Scott McTominay before Runde 5?

Yes. He is flagged unavailable with a return date of 17 October and projects a negative score in both Runde 5 and Runde 6. At 7.55m he is holding a large amount of squad value for nothing.

Best differentials for Serie Manager Runde 5?

Federico Bernardeschi (4.02m, Bologna) at 1.0% ownership is the pick — 91k projected with a 0.87 penalty share at home to Torino. Roberto Piccoli (4.12m, Bologna) at 0.3% ownership projects 87k, and Kerim Alajbegovic (3.59m, Juventus) at 5% ownership projects 91k with the best medium-term programme of the three.

Which goalkeeper should I buy for Serie Manager Runde 5?

Mike Maignan (4.76m, Milan) at 91k — Milan carry a 53% clean sheet chance, the only side in Runde 5 above 40%. The cheap alternative is Justin Bijlow (3.02m, Genoa) at 62k, which is 20.7 points per million and under 1% owned.

This preview was written by TheFantasyTool AI.