Serie Manager Runde 4: captain picks and best buys

Serie Manager Runde 4 preview: best buys, captain picks and differentials

Serie Manager Runde 4 is a full ten-fixture round — every one of the 20 Serie A clubs plays, so nobody blanks and every squad slot is live. The round opens on Friday evening with Venezia - Fiorentina and runs to Sunday night, which means the two biggest fixtures on the board, Como - Parma and Inter - Udinese, both land in the final Sunday slot. The numbers below come from our model run of 10 September, and every price is the live Serie Manager price.

The obvious names are already on most teams. What decides Runde 4 is the six or seven squad places after them: which cheap Genoa and Como players convert a soft fixture, which 20%-owned midfielder the model has quietly stopped rating, and which premium is worth the fee right now rather than next week.

Serie Manager Runde 4: the fixtures that shape the round

Four fixtures dominate the model. Como at home to Parma is the most lopsided game of the round, and Inter at home to Udinese produces the highest expected goal total. Roma travel to Torino and Juventus travel to Sassuolo — both away trips, both still priced as comfortable wins.

The other side of that table matters just as much. Parma are given a 6% win probability and 0.55 expected goals, Udinese 8%, Torino 16%, Cagliari 15% and Sassuolo 18%. Assets from those five clubs are close to unplayable this round, whatever they cost. You can check the full board on the Serie Manager market probabilities page and the Serie Manager schedule.

Best goalkeeper for Runde 4

Jean Butez (4.2m, Como) is the top-projected keeper in the game for Runde 4 at 95k, and it is not close on fixture: Como carry a 58% clean sheet chance against a Parma side the model gives 0.55 expected goals. At 4.2m he returns 22.8k per million, the best rate of any keeper worth owning, and only 9.9% of managers have him.

Josep Martinez (5.3m, Inter) is the premium alternative at 89k behind Inter's 49% clean sheet chance, and he has the best six-round weighted score of any keeper (274k) because Inter's Runde 6 home game against Parma is another shut-out fixture. Guglielmo Vicario (4.8m, Juventus) is the differential of the three: 79k this round, 3.2% owned, and a 273k weighted score within a whisker of the Inter keeper for a lower price.

Cheap route: Justin Bijlow (3.0m, Genoa) at 60k behind Genoa's home game with Frosinone. He is under 1% owned, costs a fee of roughly 30k to bring in, and his weighted score of 197k is higher than several keepers costing half a million more. The Serie Manager predicted lineups have all four as their club's first choice.

Best defenders for Runde 4

The defensive board is a Como board. Jacobo Ramon (3.2m, Como) tops it at 88k — the highest projected defender in Serie Manager this round — and at 3.2m that is 28.0k per million, the best return of any defender in the pool. Álex Valle (3.7m, Como) is right behind him on 83k from left-back, and Trevoh Chalobah (3.7m, Como) adds a third route into the same clean sheet at 73k.

You are allowed four players from one club in Serie Manager, so a genuine Como block is legal. Just be aware the model has all three on a starter factor between 0.82 and 0.87 — Como rotate, and a fourth Como defender only stacks the same clean sheet again.

Premium and durable: Gleison Bremer (4.9m, Juventus) has the best six-round weighted defender score in the game at 246k, with a trajectory of 76k → 69k → 64k. Mehmet Zeki Celik (4.2m, Juventus) is the cheaper half of the same Juventus back line at 71k and 234k weighted, and he is under 2% owned. Gianluca Mancini (4.8m, Roma) at 77k and Mario Hermoso (4.4m, Roma) at 76k both ride Roma's 43% clean sheet chance at Torino, and Carlos Augusto (4.1m, Inter) is the standout differential of the group: 85k this round from Inter's left side at just 1.0% ownership.

Budget defender: Ricardo Mangas (2.6m, Monza) at 59k for Monza's trip to Lecce. That is 22.5k per million from a nailed starter (0.97 starter factor) whose transfer fee is about 26k — the cheapest way to fill a back-line slot and put the saving into a forward. Emanuele Lulli (2.8m, Roma) is the same idea inside a better fixture at 65k and 23.4k per million.

Best midfielders for Runde 4

Nico Paz (5.3m, Como) is the template pick and deserves it: 135k for Runde 4, 348k weighted over six rounds, and a trajectory of 135k → 111k → 59k that keeps him relevant well past this weekend. At 51.2% owned he differentiates nobody, which is exactly why the rest of this section matters more.

Assane Diao (4.0m, Como) is the one to add beside him. 108k this round, 26.6k per million, and only 10.4% ownership — a fifth of the ownership of his team-mate for four fifths of the projection. Martin Baturina (5.4m, Como) is the third Como midfield route at 88k, though his projected minutes are the lowest of the three.

Chico Conceicao (6.2m, Juventus) has the highest six-round weighted score of any midfielder outside the Como playmaker (311k) and is owned by 3.1%. He is projected 96k at Sassuolo and stays above 78k in each of the next two rounds, so he is a buy you do not have to reverse. Piotr Zielinski (5.8m, Inter) is the Inter differential at 97k and 2.7% owned, with a 98k Runde 6 to follow; Nicolo Barella (6.3m, Inter) is the safer-minutes version of the same idea at 82k.

Budget midfielders: Andy Diouf (3.7m, Inter) at 80k and 21.5k per million is the cheapest legitimate way into the Inter fixture. Antonio Vergara (3.8m, Napoli) costs about the same, projects 75k at home to Bologna and is only 1.4% owned with a 211k weighted score. Kerim Alajbegovic (3.6m, Juventus) at 70k is the Juventus equivalent. Compare all of them on the Serie Manager player picks page.

Best forwards for Runde 4

Lautaro Martinez (10.9m, Inter) leads the whole game at 153k and is the most expensive asset in Serie Manager. Inter's 2.47 expected goals at home to Udinese is the highest team total of the round, and his 457k weighted score over six rounds is the highest of any player in any position — helped by a 158k Runde 6. If you can carry the price, he is the anchor.

Donyell Malen (8.0m, Roma) is second on 144k and takes Roma's penalties, which lifts a ceiling already backed by a 0.97 starter factor. Anastasios Douvikas (5.5m, Como) is the value version of the same decision: 138k inside the round's best fixture for 25.2k per million, roughly half the price of the Inter captain. Randal Kolo Muani (5.1m, Juventus) rounds out the top four at 124k with a 360k weighted score, and Paulo Dybala (5.0m, Roma) at 112k is the cheapest way into the Roma attack.

Goncalo Ramos (5.3m, Milan) is the forward to buy for the round after this one. He is 99k at Lazio now, then 162k in Runde 5 at home to Lecce — the single highest projection of any player in Runde 5 — giving him a 409k weighted score, second only to the Inter captain. Buying him this week rather than next avoids paying the fee twice.

Budget forward: Lorenzo Colombo (3.0m, Genoa) is the best cheap pick in the game right now. 82k at home to Frosinone, 27.3k per million, a 0.98 starter factor, Genoa's penalty taker, and under 1% owned. His transfer fee is about 30k. Milutin Osmajic (2.6m, Genoa) is his team-mate at an even lower price with 30.8k per million, and Akor Adams (3.5m, Venezia) at 82k is the same trick in Venezia colours.

Best captain picks for Runde 4

Your kaptajn scores double in Serie Manager, so this is the largest single decision of the round. The model's ranking:

Captain Lautaro Martinez. He has the highest projection in the round, the highest team expected-goals figure behind him, and Inter's best home fixture of the season so far. Donyell Malen is the alternative if you do not own the Inter forward — 144k, penalties, and a 0.97 starter factor make him the safest floor on the list. Anastasios Douvikas is the differential armband: 138k inside the round's most lopsided fixture at 31.1% ownership.

Captaincy is a plan, not a one-round pick. The best armband in Runde 5 is Goncalo Ramos at 162k, and in Runde 6 it swings straight back to Lautaro Martinez at 158k. Owning those two premiums covers the next three captain decisions between them. The live solve is on the Serie Manager optimal teams page.

Hidden gems and differentials for Runde 4

These are the picks that separate you from the field rather than protect your rank:

• Lorenzo Colombo (3.0m, Genoa) — 82k, 0.5% owned, penalty taker, 27.3k per million.
• Gianluca Scamacca (5.1m, Atalanta) — 99k at home to Cagliari and only 3.5% owned, with a 264k weighted score.
• Carlos Augusto (4.1m, Inter) — 85k from the Inter defence at 1.0% ownership.
• Antonio Vergara (3.8m, Napoli) — 75k in a 42% clean sheet fixture, 1.4% owned.
• Dany Mota (2.5m, Monza) — 70k for 27.9k per million, essentially unowned.
• Nicolás González (3.8m, Juventus) — 79k and a 228k weighted score, though his 0.60 starter factor makes him a rotation risk.

Lucas Da Cunha (5.2m, Como) deserves a separate line: he is Como's penalty taker, projects 76k and is owned by 1.5%. If you want one Como asset that is not on half the teams in your league, he is it.

Who to sell before Runde 4

Federico Dimarco (5.8m, Inter) is the urgent one. He is unavailable for Runde 4, the model has him at -5k, and 54.8% of managers still hold him — the highest ownership of any player in the game. Even after he returns, his Runde 5 projection is only 25k. Selling costs about 58k in fee; holding costs more than that in a single round.

Scott McTominay (7.6m, Napoli) is out until mid-October and projects -5k in each of the next three rounds. There is no version of this squad where a premium midfielder on zero minutes is worth the slot. Gustav Isaksen (4.6m, Lazio) is the same case at a lower price and 9.2% ownership.

Two more to move on for football reasons rather than fitness. Hakan Calhanoglu (6.5m, Inter) is 23.2% owned but carries a 0.45 starter factor, and 60k from a midfielder at that price in Inter's best fixture of the season is a poor use of the money. Moise Kean (3.6m, Como) is 13.7% owned on a 0.17 starter factor — he is not in Como's expected XI, and three other Como attackers out-project him by 50k or more.

One softer call: Yan Couto (3.2m, Como) is the most-owned defender in the Como block at 32.0%, and his projection falls away to 24k by Runde 6. He is fine to keep for this round and this round only.

Do not sell Marcus Thuram (8.2m, Inter) in a panic, but do watch him — the model has him on a 0.32 starter factor behind the Inter front line, so 88k is a projection built on partial minutes rather than a guaranteed start.

Looking ahead: Runde 5 and Runde 6

All 20 clubs also play in Runde 5, Runde 6 and Runde 7, so this is a pure fixture-quality decision rather than a scheduling one. Runde 5 belongs to Milan — a 71% win probability and a 52% clean sheet chance at home to Lecce, which is what drives Goncalo Ramos to 162k and makes Mike Maignan (4.7m, Milan) worth 89k that week. Como travel to Frosinone on a 60% win probability, so the Como block holds up for a second round before it thins out.

Runde 6 is Inter's: a 78% win probability at home to Parma, which is where Lautaro Martinez (158k), Piotr Zielinski (98k) and Josep Martinez (92k) all peak. If you are planning two rounds ahead rather than one, that is the block to build toward. Our Serie Manager Runde 3 preview tracked the start of the same Como and Inter runs, and every round is collected in the Serie Manager preview hub. More background reading sits in our fantasy football guides.

FAQ

Who should I captain in Serie Manager Runde 4?

Lautaro Martinez — the model projects 153k for Runde 4, the highest of any player in the game, behind Inter's round-leading 2.47 expected goals at home to Udinese. Donyell Malen (144k, and he takes Roma's penalties) is the next-best armband, with Anastasios Douvikas at 138k the differential choice inside Como's 77% win probability against Parma.

Which budget defenders are best for Serie Manager Runde 4?

Ricardo Mangas at 2.6m is the best cheap defender for Runde 4, projecting 59k at 22.5k per million from a nailed 0.97 starter factor. Emanuele Lulli (2.8m, 65k) is the alternative inside Roma's 43% clean sheet fixture at Torino, and Jacobo Ramon at 3.2m is the outright top-projected defender of the round at 88k.

Should I sell Federico Dimarco before Runde 4?

Yes. Federico Dimarco is unavailable for Runde 4 and the model has him at -5k, with only 25k to follow in Runde 5. He is still held by 54.8% of managers, so moving him is both a points gain and a rank gain. Carlos Augusto covers the same Inter defence at a lower price and projects 85k.

Best differentials for Serie Manager Runde 4?

Lorenzo Colombo is the standout — 82k at home to Frosinone, Genoa's penalty taker, and under 1% owned at 3.0m. Gianluca Scamacca (99k, 3.5% owned), Carlos Augusto (85k, 1.0%) and Antonio Vergara (75k, 1.4%) are the other low-ownership picks the model rates.

Is Goncalo Ramos worth buying for Runde 4?

Buy him for Runde 5 rather than Runde 4. Goncalo Ramos projects 99k at Lazio this week, then 162k at home to Lecce — the highest single projection of any player in Runde 5. Bringing him in now costs one fee instead of two, and his six-round weighted score of 409k is the second highest in the game.

This preview was written by TheFantasyTool AI.