Serie Manager Runde 4: best buys and differentials

Serie Manager Runde 4 preview: best buys, hidden gems and who to sell

Serie Manager Runde 4 opens on Thursday 11 September at 20:45 with Venezia against Fiorentina and runs to Sunday night, when Inter close the round at home to Udinese. It is a round with two genuinely lopsided home fixtures at the top of the model, a Juventus side quietly holding the best defensive run in the game, and a group of 2.5-3.5m players putting up numbers most managers will never look at. The obvious names are already in half the squads in this game. The round is won in the other seven slots.

Every number below comes from our model for this exact round. You can cross-check any of it on the Serie Manager player picks page, and the full round-by-round fixture list is on the Serie Manager schedule.

The Runde 4 fixtures that matter

Two matches dominate the round. Como - Parma is the biggest mismatch our model has priced in Runde 4, and Inter - Udinese is barely behind it. Both are at home, both come with a clean sheet chance of 50% or better, and both produce more than 2.2 expected goals for the favourite.

Look one round further and the picture changes fast. Como's programme after Runde 4 is ordinary - [A]Frosinone, then [H]Roma at just 36% - so a Como asset bought now is a short-term asset unless you plan to keep paying to rotate. Inter's run is the opposite: [H]Udinese, then [H]Parma at 77% in Runde 6, [H]Fiorentina at 64% in Runde 8 and [A]Venezia at 63% in Runde 9. If you are buying something you intend to keep, buy Inter.

Juventus deserve their own line. They are not the biggest favourites in any single round, but across Runde 4 to Runde 9 they hold clean sheet chances of 42%, 33%, 39%, 43%, 50% and 39% - the steadiest defensive run in Serie Manager. That is the profile that pays in a game where you cannot bench anyone. The market probabilities page shows the same fixtures with the underlying odds.

Goalkeepers for Runde 4

Jean Butez (4.2m, Como) is the highest-scoring goalkeeper in the round at 94k, on the back of that 57% clean sheet chance against Parma. At 4.2m he returns 22.6k per million, the best of any keeper priced above 3m. The catch is the same as every other Como pick: his numbers fall to 66k and 52k in the two rounds after, so he is a buy for the fixture rather than for the season.

Guglielmo Vicario (4.8m, Juventus) is the pick if you would rather not rotate. He scores 82k this round and his six-round trajectory reads 82k, 61k, 74k, 71k, 88k, 72k, which is the second-highest weighted score of any keeper. He is owned by just 3.0% of managers, which for a nailed keeper behind the best clean sheet run in the game is close to a mispricing.

Josep Martinez (5.3m, Inter) carries the highest six-round weighted score of all at 275k, with a 49% clean sheet chance in Runde 4 and 92k waiting in Runde 6 at home to Parma. He is the most expensive of the three, and the extra 0.5m over Vicario buys a slightly better round now rather than a better run.

The budget option is Justin Bijlow (3.0m, Genoa). Genoa host Frosinone with a 40% clean sheet chance, Bijlow scores 69k, and at 3.0m that is 23.1k per million - the best rate of any goalkeeper in the round. His weighted score of 210k is only 25k behind Mike Maignan's over the same six rounds, at 1.7m less. If you want to spend your budget in attack, this is where you save it. Marco Carnesecchi (4.2m, Atalanta) at 80k and a 46% clean sheet chance is the fourth option worth naming.

One to leave alone: Mike Maignan (4.7m, Milan) is the most-owned keeper in the game at 20.4%, and he has the weakest Runde 4 of any premium keeper - 64k, with a 34% clean sheet chance away at Lazio. Do not buy in for this round. If you already hold him, his Runde 5 at home to Lecce is worth 83k and is the reason to sit tight rather than pay the fee twice.

Defenders for Runde 4

Federico Dimarco (5.8m, Inter) is the best defender in the round at 94k and the best over six rounds with a 289k weighted score, driven by 0.15 expected goals and 0.18 expected assists in Runde 4 alone. He is also owned by 58.3% of the game - the most-owned player in Serie Manager. Owning him keeps you level with the field; it does not move you up it.

The move that does is the Juventus defence, and it is almost unowned. Mehmet Zeki Celik (4.2m, JUV) scores 69k this round at 1.5% ownership, with a 213k weighted score and 16.5k per million. Pierre Kalulu (4.7m, JUV) matches him at 69k with a higher weighted score of 216k and a projected 84 minutes at a 0.95 starter factor - the most nailed of the group. Gleison Bremer (4.9m, JUV) tops the round at 71k but at 7.7% ownership is the one the field has already found. Celik is the value play of the three, Kalulu the safest.

Giorgio Scalvini (4.1m, Atalanta) is the best one-round defensive fixture outside the top two matches - 70k, a 43% clean sheet chance at home to Cagliari, 84 projected minutes and only 2.4% ownership. Be honest about the exit: his Runde 5 falls to 30k away at Juventus.

The budget pick is Johan Vasquez (2.4m, Genoa), and it is the clearest cheap-defender call of the round. He scores 57k on 88 projected minutes at a 0.97 starter factor, with a 39% clean sheet chance - that is 23.2k per million, the best rate of any defender in the game, at effectively zero ownership. The fee to bring him in is about 24k. Even if you only keep him for Runde 4 and Runde 5 (57k, then 48k), the maths is comfortable. Leo Ostigard (3.4m, Genoa) is the same fixture at 63k, if you prefer to spend the extra million.

Jacobo Ramon (3.2m, Como) at 68k and 21.4k per million is a fine Runde 4 pick, but note it is exactly that - his Runde 6 drops to 28k.

Midfielders for Runde 4

Nico Paz (5.3m, Como) is the top-scoring midfielder in the round at 116k, with 0.34 expected goals and 0.20 expected assists against Parma. He is also owned by 50.7% of the game. Own him for this round - the number is real - but plan around a trajectory of 116k, 74k, 56k. He is not a hold-and-forget pick at this price.

Chico Conceicao (6.2m, Juventus) is the standout midfield buy of Runde 4 and the best differential in the position. He scores 92k this round, carries a 280k weighted score across six rounds - second only to Nico Paz among midfielders - and his trajectory barely dips: 92k, 66k, 76k, 70k, 85k, 68k. Ownership is 3.1%. If you want one transfer this round that both scores now and holds its value into October, this is it.

Lucas Da Cunha (5.2m, Como) is the other side of the Como fixture at 87k and only 1.5% ownership, and he is on penalties - a meaningful ceiling boost in a match where Como are expected to score 2.26 goals. Mario Pasalic (4.1m, Atalanta) is the value premium: 77k this round, 83 projected minutes at a 0.93 starter factor, a 220k weighted score and 18.9k per million, at 1.2% ownership. For a nailed starter in a 62% home favourite, that is the best combination of price, minutes and obscurity in the round.

Hakan Calhanoglu (6.5m, Inter) scores 80k and takes penalties, and his Runde 6 at home to Parma is worth 88k. The warning is minutes: 41 projected minutes at a 0.65 starter factor is real rotation risk for a 6.5m asset. At 23.2% ownership he is a hold rather than a buy.

The budget midfielder is Santiago Pierotti (2.5m, Lecce) at 68k - 26.7k per million, 73 projected minutes, 0.24 expected goals, and 0.1% ownership. Lecce host Monza as slight favourites and that is the only good fixture they have for a long time: Pierotti's Runde 5 is 24k, away at Milan. Buy him for this round, take the 68k, and pay the 25k fee again to move him on. Matteo Politano (5.2m, Napoli) at 68k with a 218k weighted score and 1.3% ownership is the steadier alternative if you would rather not churn.

Forwards for Runde 4

Three premium forwards land within 2k of each other in Runde 4, and the tie-breaker is what happens next.

Lautaro Martinez (10.9m, Inter) has the highest weighted score in the entire game at 360k and takes penalties, and his Runde 6 at home to Parma projects 127k - the biggest single-round number any player carries between now and Runde 9. He is also 10.9m, which is nearly a fifth of the 54.5m budget, and the fee to move him on later is 109k.

Rasmus Hojlund (8.3m, Napoli) is the one we would take of the three. He scores 113k against Bologna, but the separator is minutes: 71 projected minutes at a 0.92 starter factor, comfortably the most secure of the premium forwards, with 0.44 expected goals. His next three rounds read 113k, 88k, 115k for roughly 317k, the best three-round block of any forward.

Donyell Malen (8.0m, Roma) matches them at 114k and is on penalties, with two big rounds later on - 114k in Runde 7 at home to Genoa and 119k in Runde 9 at home to Cagliari. At 48.4% ownership he protects your position rather than improving it.

The real forward call this round is Gianluca Scamacca (5.1m, Atalanta). He scores 103k - within 12k of Lautaro Martinez at less than half the price - on 0.38 expected goals and a 0.92 starter factor, for a 289k weighted score and 20.3k per million. Ownership is 3.5%. Buying Scamacca instead of a second premium frees close to 3m for the defence and costs almost nothing this round.

Randal Kolo Muani (5.1m, Juventus) is the same argument at a similar price: 96k, 71 projected minutes, a 256k weighted score and 18.7k per million.

The budget forward is Lorenzo Colombo (3.0m, Genoa), and on rate he is one of the two best picks in the entire game. He scores 85k at 3.0m - 28.2k per million - on 75 projected minutes at a 0.95 starter factor, he takes Genoa's penalties, and 0.5% of the game owns him. His weighted score of 232k beats several forwards costing 2m more. His team-mate Milutin Osmajic (2.6m, Genoa) is the even cheaper version at 76k and 29.3k per million, the highest rate of any forward in Serie Manager this round.

Mateo Pellegrino (3.0m, Fiorentina) deserves a mention at 75k on 84 projected minutes and a 0.94 starter factor - the most minutes-secure of the cheap forwards. Moise Kean (3.6m, Como) scores 92k and looks irresistible at 25.4k per million, but 43 projected minutes at a 0.43 starter factor is a genuine rotation risk. If he starts he is the best cheap pick in the round; if he does not, take Colombo instead.

Hidden gems: the low-owned picks that decide Runde 4

Everyone will own Dimarco, Nico Paz and Malen. Almost nobody owns these, and they are where the round is actually won.

Genoa are the theme. They host Frosinone as 51% favourites with a 40% clean sheet chance, and three of their players - Colombo, Osmajic and Vasquez - sit in the top handful of points per million in the whole game. You can pick up all three for under 8.1m combined, which is less than Lautaro Martinez alone.

A word on stacking: Serie Manager allows a maximum of four players from one club. A Juventus block of Vicario, Celik, Kalulu and Conceicao is legal, costs 19.8m, and doubles up on the best clean sheet run in the game - the keeper and the defenders all score off the same shut-out. Only do it because each of them is a good pick on his own, which here they are. Check the current build on the Serie Manager optimal teams page, which solves the squad live against these numbers.

Who to sell before Runde 4

Wesley (4.3m, Roma) is the clearest sell. He is owned by 17.3% of the game on the strength of the name, but the model has him at 51 projected minutes and a 0.70 starter factor, a 159k weighted score, and a Runde 5 of just 31k. At 4.3m he is taking up money that Celik or Kalulu would use better.

Paulo Dybala (5.0m, Roma) is the same story further forward: 65k in a good fixture, 53 projected minutes, a 0.62 starter factor and a 189k weighted score at 17.2% ownership. Kolo Muani costs the same and scores 96k.

David De Gea (3.5m, Fiorentina) is owned by 15.9% and has a 26% clean sheet chance away at Venezia for 57k. Bijlow is cheaper, in a better fixture, and scores more.

Alessandro Bastoni (4.7m, Inter) is a hold-or-sell judgement rather than an obvious exit. He scores 58k in Runde 4, but his Runde 5 away at Roma collapses to 28k and his weighted score of 175k is well behind three Juventus defenders who cost the same or less.

The one-round buys - and when to exit

The transfer fee in this game is 1% of a player's value, which makes cheap players close to free to rotate and premiums expensive to churn. That maths makes a handful of Runde 4 picks explicitly short-term, and it is worth deciding the exit before you buy them rather than after.

• Santiago Pierotti (2.5m) - 68k now, 24k in Runde 5. A 25k fee to enter and a 25k fee to leave. Take the round.
• Akor Adams (3.5m, Venezia) - 89k against Fiorentina at 25.4k per million, then 54k and 31k. Two rounds at most.
• Anastasios Douvikas (5.5m, Como) - 98k this round is excellent, and 31.0% of the game already holds him. But his Runde 6 falls to 48k and his starter factor is 0.61. Take Runde 4, then move him on before the Como fixtures turn.
• Giorgio Scalvini (4.1m) and Jacobo Ramon (3.2m) - both strong now, both drop by more than half within two rounds.

Looking past Runde 4

Two moves are worth pre-planning. Goncalo Ramos (5.3m, Milan) only scores 84k this round away at Lazio, but his Runde 5 at home to Lecce projects 121k - the single biggest one-round number in the next six rounds for any player other than Lautaro Martinez. At 39.6% ownership most managers already hold him; if you do not, he is next round's buy rather than this one's.

Second, Inter's Runde 6 at home to Parma carries a 77% win probability, and both Lautaro Martinez (127k) and Dimarco (102k) peak there. If you are planning a premium move, timing it into Runde 5 to catch Runde 6 beats paying to chase Runde 4.

Confirmed team news lands on the Serie Manager predicted lineups page before each match, which matters more than usual for Kean, Calhanoglu and Alisson Santos, all of whom carry starter factors below 0.7. Our Serie Manager Runde 3 preview covers how the previous round was framed, and every round is collected in the Serie Manager preview hub. If you are new to the format, start with our fantasy guides.

FAQ

Who are the best buys for Serie Manager Runde 4?

Gianluca Scamacca (5.1m, Atalanta) and Chico Conceicao (6.2m, Juventus) are the two best buys of Runde 4. Scamacca scores 103k - within 12k of Lautaro Martinez at less than half the price - and is owned by only 3.5% of the game, while Conceicao scores 92k and holds the second-best six-round weighted score of any midfielder at 280k. If you want a premium instead, Rasmus Hojlund (8.3m, Napoli) at 113k has the most secure minutes of the expensive forwards at a 0.92 starter factor.

Is there a captain in Serie Manager?

No - Serie Manager has no captain and no chips, so no player's score is ever multiplied. That makes it a different game from Fantasy Premier League: instead of doubling one pick, you win by getting all eleven slots right and by rotating cheap players into good fixtures, since the only cost is the 1% transfer fee. The closest thing to a captain choice is simply owning the round's highest scorer, which in Runde 4 is Nico Paz at 116k.

Which cheap players are best for Serie Manager Runde 4?

Lorenzo Colombo (3.0m, Genoa) is the best cheap pick of Runde 4 at 85k, which is 28.2k per million - and he takes Genoa's penalties in a home match they are 51% likely to win. Milutin Osmajic (2.6m, Genoa) has an even better rate at 29.3k per million, Johan Vasquez (2.4m, Genoa) is the best budget defender at 57k on 88 projected minutes, and Santiago Pierotti (2.5m, Lecce) scores 68k. All four are owned by less than 1% of the game.

Should I sell Wesley before Serie Manager Runde 4?

Yes - Wesley is the clearest sell of Runde 4. Despite being owned by 17.3% of managers, the model gives him just 51 projected minutes at a 0.70 starter factor, a 159k six-round weighted score, and a Runde 5 of only 31k. At 4.3m he costs more than Mehmet Zeki Celik and the same as Pierre Kalulu, both of whom score more this round and sit behind a far better clean sheet run.

Best differentials for Serie Manager Runde 4?

Gianluca Scamacca at 3.5% ownership is the standout differential, followed by Mario Pasalic (4.1m, Atalanta) at 1.2% and Chico Conceicao at 3.1%. Below 4m, Lorenzo Colombo (0.5%), Milutin Osmajic (0.0%) and Johan Vasquez (0.0%) are effectively unowned - all three play for Genoa, who host Frosinone with a 40% clean sheet chance, and all three sit in the top handful of points per million in the entire game.

This preview was written by TheFantasyTool AI - verified by Nicolai @ TheFantasyTool