Serie Manager Runde 3: best buys and cheap picks

Serie Manager Runde 3 preview: best buys, cheap picks and differentials

Runde 3 of Serie Manager Efterår 2026 is defined by three fixtures that cancel themselves out. Inter host Napoli, Juventus host Milan and Roma host Atalanta — six of the league's strongest squads, all playing each other, all with suppressed scoring projections. That is why the model's best value in this round sits almost entirely outside those six clubs. The deadline is Friday 4 September at 20:45, and the round runs through to Monday 7 September.

The obvious names are already owned. Federico Dimarco sits at 59% ownership, Nico Paz at 46%, Donyell Malen at 45%. Owning those three does not move you up your league — everyone has them. The round is decided by the remaining seven or eight squad places, and that is where this preview spends most of its time.

Runde 3 fixture overview

Como travel to Genoa on Friday night with the second-best win probability in the round and the best clean sheet number of any away side. Combined with a home game against Parma in Runde 4 (55% clean sheet chance — the highest of that round), Como own the best two-round block in the game right now. Historically they concede just 0.90 expected goals per game and have kept 21 clean sheets in their last 46 matches, second only to Inter.

Cagliari deserve a note. Their win probability is a modest 45%, but Lecce are the weakest attacking side in the division on the historic numbers — 0.92 expected goals per game and a net non-penalty expected goal difference of −0.69 — which is why Cagliari's clean sheet chance of 42% outranks several stronger teams. It is also strictly a one-round window: Runde 4 sends them to Atalanta at a 13% win probability.

The teams to leave alone this round are Napoli, Milan, Atalanta, Torino, Genoa, Lecce and Sassuolo. You can check the full slate and the underlying market numbers on the Serie Manager schedule and the market probabilities page.

Goalkeepers for Runde 3

Jean Butez (4.1m, Como) is the pick. 79k projected for the round, a 45% clean sheet chance — the highest in Runde 3 — and a three-round total of 237k because the Parma home game follows immediately. At 19.3k per million he is not even expensive relative to the cheap options, and only 8% of managers own him.

If you want to spend less, Elia Caprile (3.1m, Cagliari) returns 66k on 20.9k per million, the best goalkeeper ratio in the round, on the back of that 42% clean sheet number against Lecce. Be honest about what you are buying: his Runde 4 projection collapses to 31k at Atalanta, so this is a one-round rental. At 3.1m the fee to move him on again is 31k — comfortably covered by a single clean sheet.

David De Gea (3.5m, Fiorentina) at 69k is the middle option with a 40% clean sheet chance against Torino, and Josep Martinez (5.2m, Inter) at 72k is the one to own if you would rather not touch the position again — his weighted six-round score of 275k is the second-best of any keeper, driven by home games against Udinese and Parma.

Defenders for Runde 3

Jacobo Ramon (3.1m, Como) is the best defender per million in the round: 70k projected, 22.8k per million, 87 projected minutes, and only 10% ownership. He carries the same 42% clean sheet exposure as the rest of the Como back line at a third of the price of the premium options. His trajectory holds too — 70k, then 79k, then 50k, for 199k across three rounds.

Federico Dimarco (5.7m, Inter) is the highest-scoring defender at 83k and the best weighted score in the position at 309k, but at 59% ownership he is the template rather than an edge. He is a fine hold; buying him now does not differentiate you. Álex Valle (3.6m, Como) at 65k and 4% ownership is the more interesting way into the same clean sheet.

Three genuine budget defenders stand out. Torbjørn Heggem (2.5m, Bologna) returns 50k on 20.2k per million with Bologna at home to Sassuolo. Ricardo Mangas (2.5m, Monza) gives you 48k and 85 projected minutes. Zé Pedro (2.6m, Cagliari) at 52k rides the Lecce clean sheet. All three cost around 25k in fees to buy and sell again — that is what makes short-term defensive rotation viable in this game.

Midfielders for Runde 3

Nico Paz (5.1m, Como) tops the position at 109k with 83 projected minutes and a 345k weighted six-round score. He is the one high-ownership player worth owning outright rather than fading, because his fixture run does not break: 109k, then 122k, then 84k for 315k across three rounds.

The differential is Riccardo Orsolini (4.5m, Bologna) at 84k and just 4.9% ownership. He takes 61% of Bologna's penalties, has produced 0.48 expected goals plus assists per 90 across his last 61 matches, and the model gives him 264k on the weighted six-round measure — the best of any midfielder in his price bracket outside Como. The one caveat is 55 projected minutes; Bologna rotate him, so his ceiling is real but his floor is thinner than the raw number suggests.

Assane Diao (3.6m, Como) at 79k and 2.9% ownership is the third Como route and the best of the cheap attacking midfielders on a 21.6k per million basis. Arthur Atta (3.5m, Fiorentina) at 68k and Daniel Maldini (3.5m, Cagliari) at 71k with 80 projected minutes and 0.7% ownership are the two under-owned mid-price options.

For the cheapest slot, El Bilal Touré (3.0m, Parma) is the highest ratio in the position at 23.9k per million and 71k projected — but only for this round. His Runde 4 number drops to 17k when Parma visit Como. Treat it as a deliberate one-round buy, or skip it. Franco Mastantuono (2.5m, Fiorentina) at 59k and 23.8k per million is the more balanced cheap option and holds up better in Runde 4.

Forwards for Runde 3

Anastasios Douvikas (5.4m, Como) has the highest projection of any player in the game for Runde 3 at 117k, from 84 projected minutes and 0.37 projected goals. His three-round run reads 117k, 126k, 86k for 329k, and his weighted six-round score of 358k is third in the whole game. Ownership is only 20%. If you make one attacking move this round, this is it.

Donyell Malen (7.6m, Roma) at 103k takes 70% of Roma's penalties and has produced 0.73 expected goals plus assists per 90 across his last 65 matches. His weighted score of 360k is the second-highest in the game. The Atalanta fixture is tighter than his raw numbers imply, but the following trip to Torino — 56% win probability and a 45% clean sheet chance — supports holding through it.

Paulo Dybala (4.8m, Roma) at 87k and 16% ownership is the cheaper Roma route, with 0.76 expected goals plus assists per 90 — the best rate of any forward recommended here. Lautaro Martínez (10.6m, Inter) carries the highest weighted score in the game at 418k, but his Runde 3 projection is only 88k on 54 projected minutes against Napoli. He rises to 146k in Runde 4 at home to Udinese. Hold him if you have him; do not pay 106k in fees to buy him for this specific round.

Hidden gems and differentials

These are the picks that separate squads once the obvious names are accounted for.

Mateo Pellegrino (2.9m, Fiorentina) is the single best value in the game this round — 28.8k per million, 84 projected minutes, at 2.5% ownership, in a home game Fiorentina are favoured to win. Akor Adams (3.5m, Venezia) is owned by 1.1% of managers and projects 88k, which is higher than every forward in the game except Douvikas and Malen.

Gustavo Varela (3.2m, Monza) deserves a specific mention: the model has him taking all of Monza's penalties, which raises his ceiling well beyond what a 66k projection normally implies. John Yeboah (3.5m, Venezia) at 69k takes 86% of Venezia's, on 0.62 expected goals plus assists per 90 across his last 55 matches.

You can sort every one of these by projection, price and ownership yourself on the Serie Manager player picks page, and check the expected starting elevens on predicted lineups before the deadline.

Who to sell before Runde 3

Six widely-owned players project at or near zero for this round, and three of them are not projected to play at all.

• Kenan Yıldız (7.6m, Juventus) — owned by 8%, zero projected minutes in Runde 3, 4 and 5. The most expensive dead asset in the game. Sell.
• Andrea Cambiaso (4.1m, Juventus) — owned by 18%, zero projected minutes in Runde 3 and Runde 4. Sell.
• Gustav Isaksen (4.6m, Lazio) — owned by 9%, zero projected minutes across the next two rounds. Sell.
• Andy Diouf (3.7m, Inter) — 27% ownership on 33 projected minutes and a 26k projection. The second-most-owned midfielder in the game, in a bench role.
• Charles De Ketelaere (4.5m, Atalanta) — 18% ownership, 38 projected minutes, 24k, and Atalanta are away at Roma.
• Moise Kean (3.5m, Fiorentina) — 14% ownership but only 17 projected minutes, so 25k despite Fiorentina having one of the better fixtures of the round.

Two Napoli players are worth holding rather than selling. Rasmus Højlund (8.2m, 19% owned) projects just 44k and Scott McTominay (7.6m, 10% owned) just 36k at Inter, but both recover sharply in Runde 4 at home to Bologna — 104k and 98k respectively. Selling an 8.2m forward costs 82k in fees to undo a single bad fixture; that is not a trade worth making.

Transfer summary for Runde 3

The shape of a strong Runde 3 squad is a Como block built around the Genoa away game and the Parma home game that follows, a cheap Cagliari or Fiorentina clean-sheet rental for the single round, and at least one of the sub-4m forwards nobody owns. Remember the four-player limit per club when you build the Como block — Butez, Ramon, Valle, Paz, Diao and Douvikas are six candidates for four slots, and the model's order of preference among them is Douvikas, Paz, Butez, Ramon.

Priority moves in: Douvikas, Nico Paz, Butez, Jacobo Ramon, Orsolini, Pellegrino. Priority moves out: Yıldız, Cambiaso, Isaksen, Diouf. If you want the solver's own answer for the exact budget you are working with, run it on optimal teams for Serie Manager.

More rounds and more analysis in the Serie Manager preview hub, and you can read what changed since last week in our Serie Manager Runde 2 preview. New to these games? Start with our fantasy football guides.

FAQ

Who should I buy in Serie Manager Runde 3?

Anastasios Douvikas (5.4m, Como) is the model's top pick at 117k projected — the highest of any player in the game for this round — followed by Nico Paz (5.1m, Como) at 109k and Donyell Malen (7.6m, Roma) at 103k. Como away at Genoa is the best combination of win probability and clean sheet chance in Runde 3, and Como follow it with the highest clean sheet fixture of Runde 4 at home to Parma.

Who should I captain in Serie Manager Runde 3?

Anastasios Douvikas (5.4m, Como) — the highest projection of any player in the game for Runde 3, and the captain scores double in Serie Manager. Nico Paz (5.1m, Como) at 109k is the alternative out of the same fixture and Donyell Malen (7.6m, Roma) at 103k the third option. There are no chips to fall back on, and the armband does not belong on a 10m-plus striker this week, because Lautaro Martínez projects only 88k on 54 minutes against Napoli.

Which cheap players are best for Runde 3?

Mateo Pellegrino (2.9m, Fiorentina) leads the whole game at 28.8k per million with 84 projected minutes, followed by Akor Adams (3.5m, Venezia) at 25.2k and Paul Mendy (2.5m, Cagliari) at 24.6k. In defence, Torbjørn Heggem (2.5m, Bologna) and Zé Pedro (2.6m, Cagliari) both clear 20k per million, and Elia Caprile (3.1m, Cagliari) is the best budget goalkeeper at 20.9k.

Should I sell Andrea Cambiaso before Runde 3?

Yes. Cambiaso is projected for zero minutes in both Runde 3 and Runde 4, which in this scoring system means a negative return rather than a blank, and he is still owned by 18% of managers. The same applies to Kenan Yıldız (7.6m, 8% owned) and Gustav Isaksen (4.6m, 9% owned), neither of whom is projected to play in the next two rounds.

Best differentials for Serie Manager Runde 3?

Akor Adams (3.5m, Venezia) at 1.1% ownership and 88k projected is the standout — a higher projection than every forward in the game bar two. Riccardo Orsolini (4.5m, Bologna) at 4.9% ownership takes 61% of Bologna's penalties and projects 84k at home to Sassuolo, and Gustavo Varela (3.2m, Monza) at 0.5% ownership takes all of Monza's.

This preview was written by TheFantasyTool AI - verified by Nicolai @ TheFantasyTool