Serie Manager Runde 12: captain picks and best buys
Serie Manager Runde 12 preview: best buys, captain picks and differentials
Serie Manager Runde 12 comes straight after the international break, with all ten Serie A fixtures between 21 and 23 November and every club playing once. The transfers happen now, but the reasons sit in Runde 13 and 14. Milan, Inter, Napoli, Roma and Juventus all start good three-round runs here. Como are the trap: a strong home game against Cagliari this round, then Juventus and a trip to Monza. Use this preview with the full Serie Manager player picks and the optimal teams for Serie Manager before the deadline.
Runde 12 programs: whose next three rounds are worth owning
Inter have the best attacking run in the game. [A]ATA → [H]GEN → [A]FRC adds up to 6.42 expected goals, and the Atalanta away game is the hardest of the three, not a reason to wait. Milan follow at 5.68 with [H]FRC → [A]CGL → [H]PAR, and they open with a 61% win probability at home to Frosinone. Napoli ([H]TOR → [A]SAS → [H]LEC) and Juventus ([H]VEN → [A]COM → [H]UDI) share the best defensive programs at 1.35 expected clean sheets each. Juventus also have the single best clean-sheet chance of the round, 47% at home to Venezia.
Roma are the other strong defensive option. [A]PAR → [H]MON → [A]BOL carries a 71% win probability and a 45% clean-sheet chance in Parma. Fiorentina's numbers look ordinary in Runde 12 ([A]MON, 48% win probability) but improve with [A]UDI and [H]CGL behind it. That is why their cheap attackers are buys now rather than later.
| Team | Runde 12 fixture | Win probability | Expected goals | Clean sheet | Program (Runde 12-14) | 3-round xG | 3-round CS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INT | [A]ATA | 59% | 2.26 | 28% | [A]ATA → [H]GEN → [A]FRC | 6.42 | 1.05 |
| MIL | [H]FRC | 61% | 2.40 | 28% | [H]FRC → [A]CGL → [H]PAR | 5.68 | 1.19 |
| NAP | [H]TOR | 67% | 2.13 | 43% | [H]TOR → [A]SAS → [H]LEC | 5.48 | 1.35 |
| ROM | [A]PAR | 71% | 2.31 | 45% | [A]PAR → [H]MON → [A]BOL | 5.43 | 1.16 |
| FIO | [A]MON | 48% | 1.79 | 27% | [A]MON → [A]UDI → [H]CGL | 5.11 | 0.96 |
| JUV | [H]VEN | 71% | 2.26 | 47% | [H]VEN → [A]COM → [H]UDI | 5.10 | 1.35 |
| LAZ | [H]LEC | 70% | 2.29 | 44% | [H]LEC → [A]TOR → [H]ATA | 4.89 | 1.07 |
| COM | [H]CGL | 71% | 2.32 | 45% | [H]CGL → [H]JUV → [A]MON | 4.76 | 1.19 |
| BOL | [H]UDI | 54% | 1.71 | 38% | [H]UDI → [A]VEN → [H]ROM | 4.27 | 0.99 |
| FRC | [A]MIL | 19% | 1.28 | 9% | [A]MIL → [H]PAR → [H]INT | 4.10 | 0.56 |
The table is sorted on the three-round expected goals. Como sit eighth on the program, yet their 45% clean-sheet chance this round is second only to Juventus. That gap is the whole story for their players: good to hold for Runde 12, harder to justify for Runde 13 and 14. Kickoff times are on the Serie Manager schedule, and the starting elevens behind these numbers are on the predicted lineups page.
Best goalkeepers for Serie Manager Runde 12
Guglielmo Vicario (5.2m, JUV) is the keeper to hold through the next run. His program is [H]VEN → [A]COM → [H]UDI and he projects 86k → 57k → 86k, 228k over three rounds, the best of any goalkeeper. The Como away game is the dip, and two home games make up for it. Only 3.7% of managers own him.
Mike Maignan (5.2m, MIL) projects 71k → 71k → 84k on [H]FRC → [A]CGL → [H]PAR, 226k in total. He is already in 21.1% of teams, and his trajectory rises rather than falls, so there is no reason to move him on.
Pierluigi Gollini (4.0m, ROM) is the value play. He tops the round at 93k with a 45% clean-sheet chance in Parma, then fades: 93k → 65k → 58k on [A]PAR → [H]MON → [A]BOL. At 23.5k per million he is a strong Runde 12 pick, but treat him as a two-round hold rather than a long-term keeper. David De Gea (3.7m, FIO) is the flat, cheap alternative at 65k → 67k → 67k on [A]MON → [A]UDI → [H]CGL.
Best defenders for Serie Manager Runde 12
This is the position where this round's ranking and the three-round ranking disagree most. Gleison Bremer has the best Runde 12 score, but Carlos Augusto (4.9m, INT) has the best program. He projects 79k → 72k → 75k on [A]ATA → [H]GEN → [A]FRC, 226k over three rounds, and he keeps going at 73k and 80k in Runde 15 and 16. Only 3.6% own him. If you are buying one defender to keep, buy Carlos Augusto.
Gleison Bremer (5.4m, JUV) is the pick if you want the round. He projects 88k against Venezia, and his run is 88k → 45k → 83k on [H]VEN → [A]COM → [H]UDI, 216k in total. The Como away week is the one to plan around. He also carries 0.12 expected goals this round, a decent bonus for a centre-back.
Giovanni Di Lorenzo (5.0m, NAP) sits between them: 79k → 63k → 78k on [H]TOR → [A]SAS → [H]LEC, 219k, with Napoli's 1.35 expected clean sheets behind him. He is flagged with a return date of 14 November, a week before the deadline, and the model has him at 84 minutes for Runde 12. Strahinja Pavlovic (5.5m, MIL) is the Milan route at 73k → 61k → 78k on [H]FRC → [A]CGL → [H]PAR, owned by 1.8%.
For a cheap slot, Kaiki (3.2m, COM) is a one-round buy. He projects 77k at home to Cagliari, 24.0k per million, the best rate of any defender. Then his program turns: 77k → 30k → 42k on [H]CGL → [H]JUV → [A]MON. His fee is about 32k, so buy him for Runde 12 and sell him again before Runde 13. Evan N'Dicka (4.6m, ROM) lasts a little longer at 82k → 57k → 48k on [A]PAR → [H]MON → [A]BOL.
Best midfielders for Serie Manager Runde 12
Tijjani Noslin (5.3m, LAZ) leads the position on both measures. He projects 137k → 76k → 81k on [H]LEC → [A]TOR → [H]ATA, 294k over three rounds, with 0.48 expected goals at home to Lecce. Lazio carry a 70% win probability in that game. At 11.2% ownership he is still a differential compared with Nico Paz.
Christian Pulisic (6.8m, MIL) is the best Milan midfielder at 118k → 77k → 92k on [H]FRC → [A]CGL → [H]PAR, 286k in total, and only 8.7% own him. He fits next to Goncalo Ramos inside the four-per-club limit if you want a Milan double-up.
Franco Mastantuono (3.3m, FIO) is the buy whose case is entirely in the program. He projects only 77k this round, then 100k and 94k: 77k → 100k → 94k on [A]MON → [A]UDI → [H]CGL, with 89k and 78k behind that. That is 270k over three rounds, level with Scott McTominay at less than half the price. Buy him now, because Fiorentina's good run starts in Runde 13 and you want him in before it.
Scott McTominay (8.0m, NAP) is the premium option at 108k → 75k → 87k on [H]TOR → [A]SAS → [H]LEC. He is one of Napoli's penalty takers and plays 78 minutes in the model. For a cheap filler, Alieu Njie (2.6m, FIO) is the hidden gem: 71k → 67k → 61k on the same Fiorentina run, 27.5k per million and owned by 0.7%. Domenico Berardi (3.4m, SAS) is Sassuolo's penalty taker and projects 76k → 44k → 71k on [H]GEN → [H]NAP → [A]VEN, rising again to 77k in Runde 16.
Best forwards for Serie Manager Runde 12
Goncalo Ramos (5.7m, MIL) is the best forward of the round and of the program: 148k → 94k → 117k on [H]FRC → [A]CGL → [H]PAR, 360k over three rounds. He carries 0.61 expected goals against Frosinone, the highest in the game. 36.3% already own him, so he is the template, not the edge.
Marcus Thuram (9.2m, INT) is the long hold. His trajectory is flat and high: 124k → 107k → 125k on [A]ATA → [H]GEN → [A]FRC, then 115k and 118k. He is the top-projected player in the game in every round from Runde 13 to 16, and only 13.3% own him. That is why he is worth the money now rather than in a week.
Randal Kolo Muani (5.5m, JUV) is Juventus' penalty taker and projects 130k → 56k → 104k on [H]VEN → [A]COM → [H]UDI, 290k in total. The Como week is weak, two of three are very good, and at 23.8k per million he is cheap for what he returns.
The differential is Mateo Pellegrino (3.5m, FIO). He projects 99k → 73k → 67k on [A]MON → [A]UDI → [H]CGL with 0.42 expected goals in Runde 12, 28.7k per million (the best rate of any forward) and just 1.0% ownership. He frees money for Thuram without costing much in points.
Captain picks for Serie Manager Runde 12
The captain scores double, so the order matters. Goncalo Ramos (5.7m, MIL) is the captain for Runde 12 at 148k, at home to Frosinone ([H]FRC → [A]CGL → [H]PAR). Donyell Malen is the alternative at 143k in Parma, and Tijjani Noslin is third at 137k at home to Lecce. Anastasios Douvikas (136k) and Nico Paz (134k) are close behind for Como owners.
Plan beyond this round too. From Runde 13 to 16 the top projection in every round is Marcus Thuram (107k, 125k, 115k, 118k). Ramos is second in Runde 14 at 117k, and Mastantuono is near the top in Runde 13 and 15. If you can only fit one premium forward, the captaincy plan points to Thuram.
Who to sell before Serie Manager Runde 12
Lautaro Martinez (11.2m, INT) is the clearest sale. 14.6% still own him, but he is flagged with a return date of 17 November and the model keeps him on short minutes: 34k → 26k → 35k on [A]ATA → [H]GEN → [A]FRC. The Inter fixtures are excellent; he just is not the player getting them. Sell now, because Inter's best run starts this round and Thuram is the player taking those minutes.
Moise Kean (3.7m, COM) is in the same position at Como, owned by 11.2%. He is flagged with the same return date and projects 48k → 17k → 26k on [H]CGL → [H]JUV → [A]MON. Cagliari at home is a good fixture, but Douvikas is the forward who plays it, and Kean's numbers fall further from Runde 13.
Rodrigo Mora (3.9m, ROM) and Emanuele Lulli (3.4m, ROM) are both owned by more than 11% and both fall every round. Mora goes 59k → 41k → 31k and Lulli 35k → 27k → 17k on [A]PAR → [H]MON → [A]BOL. Roma's program is good; their minutes are the issue. Their value only shrinks from here, so sell this round.
Nico Paz (6.1m, COM), Anastasios Douvikas (6.2m, COM) and Yan Couto (3.6m, COM) are a different case. Paz projects 134k → 48k → 68k, Douvikas 136k → 52k → 74k and Couto 75k → 32k → 43k on [H]CGL → [H]JUV → [A]MON. Cagliari at home is a genuinely good fixture and they should play it. You can wait a round on these three: hold them for Runde 12, then sell before the Juventus game. Do not sell Charles De Ketelaere into Atalanta's home game with Inter either. He projects only 34k there, but 74k at Lecce follows straight after.
More Serie Manager analysis is in the Serie Manager preview hub, last round's picks are in the Serie Manager Runde 11 preview, and the bookmaker numbers behind the clean-sheet chances are on the Serie Manager market probabilities page.
FAQ
Who should I captain in Serie Manager Runde 12?
Goncalo Ramos is the captain pick at 148k projected, at home to Frosinone. Donyell Malen (143k) and Tijjani Noslin (137k) are the alternatives, and Marcus Thuram becomes the top captain option from Runde 13.
Who are the best buys for Serie Manager Runde 12?
Goncalo Ramos (360k over three rounds), Tijjani Noslin (294k), Kolo Muani (290k) and Carlos Augusto (226k, the best defender over three rounds) are the strongest buys. Franco Mastantuono is the best cheap buy: 270k over three rounds at 3.3m.
Best differentials for Serie Manager Runde 12?
Mateo Pellegrino (1.0% owned, 99k → 73k → 67k), Alieu Njie (0.7%, 71k → 67k → 61k) and Carlos Augusto (3.6%, 79k → 72k → 75k) are the best low-ownership picks over the next three rounds.
Should I sell Lautaro Martinez before Serie Manager Runde 12?
Yes. He projects 34k → 26k → 35k over the next three rounds because of his limited minutes, while Marcus Thuram projects 124k → 107k → 125k from the same Inter fixtures.
Should I sell Nico Paz before Serie Manager Runde 12?
Not yet. He projects 134k at home to Cagliari, among the best scores of the round, but drops to 48k against Juventus in Runde 13, so the time to sell him is after Runde 12.
This preview was written by TheFantasyTool AI.