Serie Manager Runde 11: captain picks and best buys
Serie Manager Runde 11 preview: best buys, captain picks and differentials
Serie Manager Runde 11 opens on Friday 6 November with Venezia against Udinese and closes on Sunday night with Fiorentina against Juventus. All twenty Serie A clubs play once. Then the international break arrives, and Runde 12 does not start until 21 November. That gap is the whole story of this round: the squad you set now is the squad you carry into the second half of November, so the moves worth making are the ones that pay over Runde 11, 12 and 13, not just this weekend. Roma have the best program in the game, Milan and Inter the best attacking runs, and Torino the best single clean-sheet chance of the round before a trip to Napoli. Lautaro Martinez, Moise Kean and Mile Svilar all project no points this round.
The full ranking is on the Serie Manager player picks page, optimal teams for Serie Manager shows how the model would build a squad for the round, and the Serie Manager predicted lineups show who is expected to start. Last round's picks are in the Serie Manager Runde 10 preview.
The programs: whose next three Runder are worth owning
Roma are the team to own. [H]SAS → [A]PAR → [H]MON adds up to 5.16 expected goals, second in the game, and 1.32 expected clean sheets, the best of any team. There is no weak week in it: Sassuolo at home is a 59% win probability with 1.84 expected goals, the highest of the round, Parma away is 57% with a 48% clean-sheet chance, and Monza at home is 58% and 42%. Roma have scored at 2.30 expected goals per game in Serie A this season and kept five clean sheets in ten. Bologna away in Runde 14 is where the run cools.
Inter ([H]COM → [A]ATA → [H]GEN) top the attacking table at 5.49 expected goals, but only 1.03 expected clean sheets, so they are a team for attackers more than defenders. Genoa at home in Runde 13 is a 66% win probability with 2.05 expected goals, and [A]FRC → [H]TOR → [A]LEC behind it keeps Inter strong all the way to Runde 16. Milan ([A]GEN → [H]FRC → [A]CGL) are close behind at 4.97 expected goals and 1.15 expected clean sheets. Frosinone at home in Runde 12 is a 62% win probability and 2.11 expected goals, and Parma at home in Runde 14 is a 53% clean-sheet chance, so Milan players are buys for longer than three rounds.
For defences, Juventus ([A]FIO → [H]VEN → [A]COM) reach 1.26 expected clean sheets and Bologna ([A]PAR → [H]UDI → [A]VEN) 1.25. Juventus have allowed just 0.58 expected goals per game this season, the best defence in the league, and Venezia at home in Runde 12 is a 53% clean-sheet chance, the best of any team in that round. They also host Udinese in Runde 14 at 53%. Bologna are cheaper and every fixture in their three is at least a 37% clean-sheet chance, but Roma at home in Runde 14 ends it. Napoli ([H]LAZ → [H]TOR → [A]SAS) sit at 1.22 with two home games first and Lecce at home in Runde 14, a 55% clean-sheet chance.
Torino and Venezia are the one-round teams. Torino host Lecce with a 47% clean-sheet chance, the best of the round, then go to Napoli (17% win probability, 20% clean-sheet chance). Venezia host Udinese and then visit Juventus with an 11% win probability. Lazio and Como have the opposite shape: Napoli away and Inter away are the hard weeks, and Lecce at home and Cagliari at home follow in Runde 12. Lecce (2.38) and Parma (2.52) are the weakest attacks over the three rounds, and Genoa and Lecce (0.65 expected clean sheets each) the defences to avoid.
| Team | Runde 11 fixture | Win probability | Expected goals | Clean sheet | Program (Runde 11-13) | 3-round xG | 3-round CS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inter | [H]COM | 50% | 1.73 | 31% | [H]COM → [A]ATA → [H]GEN | 5.49 | 1.03 |
| Roma | [H]SAS | 59% | 1.84 | 41% | [H]SAS → [A]PAR → [H]MON | 5.16 | 1.32 |
| Milan | [A]GEN | 45% | 1.37 | 37% | [A]GEN → [H]FRC → [A]CGL | 4.97 | 1.15 |
| Napoli | [H]LAZ | 52% | 1.56 | 42% | [H]LAZ → [H]TOR → [A]SAS | 4.72 | 1.22 |
| Bologna | [A]PAR | 46% | 1.27 | 44% | [A]PAR → [H]UDI → [A]VEN | 4.33 | 1.25 |
| Atalanta | [A]MON | 39% | 1.37 | 28% | [A]MON → [H]INT → [A]LEC | 4.26 | 0.87 |
| Juventus | [A]FIO | 42% | 1.22 | 40% | [A]FIO → [H]VEN → [A]COM | 4.25 | 1.26 |
| Como | [A]INT | 25% | 1.17 | 18% | [A]INT → [H]CGL → [H]JUV | 4.08 | 0.98 |
| Frosinone | [A]CGL | 34% | 1.29 | 26% | [A]CGL → [A]MIL → [H]PAR | 3.86 | 0.75 |
| Lazio | [A]NAP | 20% | 0.87 | 21% | [A]NAP → [H]LEC → [A]TOR | 3.55 | 1.01 |
| Fiorentina | [H]JUV | 26% | 0.91 | 29% | [H]JUV → [A]MON → [A]UDI | 3.43 | 0.95 |
| Torino | [H]LEC | 53% | 1.45 | 47% | [H]LEC → [A]NAP → [H]LAZ | 3.39 | 1.00 |
| Monza | [H]ATA | 33% | 1.26 | 25% | [H]ATA → [H]FIO → [A]ROM | 3.31 | 0.74 |
| Sassuolo | [A]ROM | 17% | 0.89 | 16% | [A]ROM → [H]GEN → [H]NAP | 3.26 | 0.73 |
| Udinese | [A]VEN | 31% | 1.16 | 26% | [A]VEN → [A]BOL → [H]FIO | 3.03 | 0.71 |
| Venezia | [H]UDI | 40% | 1.35 | 32% | [H]UDI → [A]JUV → [H]BOL | 3.00 | 0.71 |
| Cagliari | [H]FRC | 38% | 1.36 | 28% | [H]FRC → [A]COM → [H]MIL | 3.00 | 0.67 |
| Genoa | [H]MIL | 26% | 0.98 | 25% | [H]MIL → [A]SAS → [A]INT | 2.83 | 0.65 |
| Parma | [H]BOL | 23% | 0.81 | 28% | [H]BOL → [H]ROM → [A]FRC | 2.52 | 0.70 |
| Lecce | [A]TOR | 18% | 0.75 | 24% | [A]TOR → [A]LAZ → [H]ATA | 2.38 | 0.65 |
The rest of the autumn is on the Serie Manager schedule, and the bookmaker lines behind these numbers are on market probabilities.
Goalkeepers for Runde 11
Mike Maignan (5.2m, MIL) has the best three-round total of any goalkeeper at 216k. [A]GEN → [H]FRC → [A]CGL projects 68k → 74k → 74k, and he is up at 84k against Parma in Runde 14. He is owned by 20.6%, so for most managers he is a hold rather than a buy, and the right one to keep.
Lukasz Skorupski (3.9m, BOL) is the value keeper. [A]PAR → [H]UDI → [A]VEN projects 72k → 69k → 65k, a 206k total that is third in the position, at 18.2k per million this round and 1.4% ownership. Guglielmo Vicario (5.1m, JUV) sits between them at 211k: [A]FIO → [H]VEN → [A]COM projects 68k → 86k → 58k, with 86k against Venezia the best single keeper projection in Runde 12. He is owned by 3.6%.
The round and the program disagree in goal. Pierluigi Gollini (3.9m, ROM) tops the position this round at 75k against Sassuolo and Lucas Perri (3.4m, TOR) projects 73k against Lecce, the best ratio in the position at 21.7k per million. But Gollini drops to 35k → 32k once Svilar returns for Runde 12, and Perri drops to 36k at Napoli. If you are buying one keeper to keep, buy Skorupski, Vicario or Maignan. Perri is a one-round pick for the roughly 34k fee, and the one to sell again before Runde 12.
Defenders for Runde 11
Strahinja Pavlovic (5.5m, MIL) is the defender to buy and keep. [A]GEN → [H]FRC → [A]CGL projects 60k → 72k → 61k with 88 projected minutes, a 193k total that is the best of any defender, and he projects 72k against Parma in Runde 14. Only 2.2% own him. Koni De Winter (4.4m, MIL) is the cheaper Milan option at 51k → 57k → 51k.
Gleison Bremer (5.3m, JUV) is second at 181k: [A]FIO → [H]VEN → [A]COM projects 58k → 80k → 44k, and he is back at 77k against Udinese in Runde 14. The Como week is the dip, and two strong fixtures in the next four make up for it. Giovanni Di Lorenzo (5.0m, NAP) is the steadier alternative: [H]LAZ → [H]TOR → [A]SAS projects 57k → 61k → 55k, 173k in total, then 75k against Lecce in Runde 14.
The budget route is Bologna. Arthur Theate (2.7m, BOL) projects 56k → 58k → 54k over [A]PAR → [H]UDI → [A]VEN with 79 projected minutes, a 169k total at 20.7k per million, the best value of any defender. He is owned by 0.6%. Nadir Zortea (3.8m, BOL) projects almost the same at 166k. Both drop to around 30k when Roma visit in Runde 14, so they are three-round holds.
Evan N'Dicka (4.4m, ROM) is the way into Roma's defence. [H]SAS → [A]PAR → [H]MON projects 55k → 59k → 52k with 72 projected minutes, a 167k total, and he is owned by 2.5%. That beats Wesley (4.5m, 11.7% owned) at 53k → 56k → 50k on 56 projected minutes.
Rafik Belghali (3.1m, TOR) tops the position this round at 60k against Lecce, and Saul Coco (3.2m, TOR) projects 57k. Their program is [H]LEC → [A]NAP → [H]LAZ, and both fall to around 19k at Napoli in Runde 12, so this is a one-round buy: Pavlovic out-scores Belghali by 77k over the three rounds. Buy him only if you have a cheap slot to fill for Lecce and you will sell again before Runde 12. Federico Dimarco (6.2m, INT), in 44.7% of teams, is a hold: 57k → 53k → 66k now, and Inter's run from Runde 13 takes him to 70k → 64k → 74k.
Midfielders for Runde 11
Federico Bernardeschi (4.7m, BOL) is the hidden gem again. [A]PAR → [H]UDI → [A]VEN projects 82k → 95k → 76k, a 253k total that is the best of any midfielder, at 17.6k per million and 2.8% ownership. He tops the position this round as well, with 0.24 expected goals and 0.16 expected assists at Parma, and he has three Serie A goals this season at 0.47 expected goal involvements per 90 minutes.
Christian Pulisic (6.6m, MIL) is the premium midfielder to own. [A]GEN → [H]FRC → [A]CGL projects 75k → 99k → 74k, a 249k total, and 87k against Parma in Runde 14. He has produced 0.67 expected goal involvements per 90 minutes in Serie A this season, and only 5.8% own him. Scott McTominay (8.0m, NAP) takes Napoli's penalties and projects 75k → 77k → 72k over [H]LAZ → [H]TOR → [A]SAS, then 91k against Lecce. Matias Soulé (6.5m, ROM) gives you the Roma run, [H]SAS → [A]PAR → [H]MON, at 76k → 73k → 70k.
Jens Odgaard (3.7m, BOL) is the budget midfielder. [A]PAR → [H]UDI → [A]VEN projects 62k → 67k → 67k, a 196k total at 16.8k per million, and 5.3% own him. Serie Manager allows four players per club, so Skorupski, Theate, Bernardeschi and Odgaard is the full Bologna block.
Nikola Vlasic (3.4m, TOR), Torino's penalty taker, projects 64k against Lecce at 19.0k per million, then 24k at Napoli. He is a one-round pick in the same way as Belghali. Franco Mastantuono (3.1m, FIO) is the opposite: Juventus at home is only 31k, but [A]MON → [A]UDI → [H]CGL follows at 65k → 78k → 78k. You can wait a round on him unless you need the slot now. Nico Paz (6.1m, COM), in 57.6% of teams, is a hold: Inter away is his dip at 55k, and Cagliari at home in Runde 12 projects 93k.
Forwards for Runde 11
Donyell Malen (8.4m, ROM) is the forward everything is built around. [H]SAS → [A]PAR → [H]MON projects 118k → 108k → 106k, a 332k total that is the best in the game, and he takes Roma's penalties. He has eight Serie A goals from 7.48 expected goals in 575 minutes this season. Owned by 47.3%, he is the one template pick you should not be without.
Goncalo Ramos (5.7m, MIL) is the best value in the game. [A]GEN → [H]FRC → [A]CGL projects 92k → 128k → 95k, a 316k total at 16.4k per million, and 112k against Parma in Runde 14. With 80 projected minutes he is the most secure forward in the top group. A third of managers own him; the rest should buy him now, before the Frosinone week.
Randal Kolo Muani (5.4m, JUV) projects 76k → 107k → 60k over [A]FIO → [H]VEN → [A]COM, a 243k total, and 102k against Udinese in Runde 14. Marcus Thuram (9.2m, INT) is the premium alternative: [H]COM → [A]ATA → [H]GEN projects 86k → 78k → 94k, 258k over the three, and he stays high after it at 103k → 91k → 99k in Runde 14 to 16. Paulo Dybala (5.1m, ROM, 12.8% owned) is back before the round and projects 86k → 76k → 64k on 67 projected minutes; he is a hold for his owners.
The cheap forwards are one-round plays. Akor Adams (3.8m, VEN) and Giovanni Simeone (4.6m, TOR) both project 77k this round, but Adams drops to 19k at Juventus and Simeone to 27k at Napoli. Kolo Muani has at least 90k more than either over the three rounds. For a cheap forward to keep, Mateo Pellegrino (3.3m, FIO) projects 44k → 49k → 59k over [H]JUV → [A]MON → [A]UDI and 59k → 54k after that, a steady 152k total for the price.
Captain picks for Runde 11
Donyell Malen (8.4m, ROM) is the captain, and his [H]SAS → [A]PAR → [H]MON run keeps him in the frame for the next three rounds. He projects 118k against Sassuolo, 26k ahead of anyone else, with 0.47 expected goals and the penalties. Goncalo Ramos is second at 92k at Genoa, then Paulo Dybala and Marcus Thuram at 86k.
The armband moves to Ramos in Runde 12, where he projects 128k against Frosinone, ahead of Malen (108k) and Kolo Muani (107k). In Runde 13 Malen is back on top at 106k against Monza. So owning both Malen and Ramos gives you the best captain in each of the next three rounds, and that is the strongest argument for holding them together. For more on how to choose, see our guide on how to pick your fantasy captain.
Who to sell before Runde 11
Lautaro Martinez (11.2m, INT), owned by 15.0%, is the sale, and the round to make it is this one. His return date is 17 November, so he projects nothing in Runde 11 and 50k → 67k when he comes back over [A]ATA → [H]GEN. Thuram costs 2.0m less and out-projects him in every round from now to Runde 16. Keeping Lautaro through the break buys you nothing that Thuram does not already give you.
Moise Kean (3.7m, COM), in 11.5% of teams, has the same return date and projects nothing this round, then 37k → 23k over [H]CGL → [H]JUV. Odgaard or Pellegrino give you a player who scores this round and keeps scoring.
Emanuele Lulli (3.4m, ROM), owned by 12.1%, is the swap to make before Roma's run starts. He projects 33k → 33k → 26k on 37 projected minutes, while N'Dicka projects 167k over the same three rounds for about 1m more. Yan Couto (3.5m, COM, 27.4%) and Jacobo Ramon (3.8m, COM, 18.6%) have one good week in three: [A]INT → [H]CGL → [H]JUV projects 25k → 60k → 26k for Couto. Theate projects 169k over those three rounds for less money, so if you need the slot, this is the round to move.
Two popular players are not sales. Pierluigi Gollini (3.9m, ROM, 7.7%) projects 75k against Sassuolo, so keep him for this round and sell him before Runde 12, when Svilar is back. Lazio owners should sit through Napoli away: Nuno Tavares (19.3%) projects 26k this round, but 72k against Lecce at home in Runde 12.
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FAQ
Who should I captain in Serie Manager Runde 11?
Donyell Malen. He projects 118k at home to Sassuolo, 26k ahead of Goncalo Ramos (92k), and he takes Roma's penalties. Ramos is the top captain in Runde 12 at 128k against Frosinone.
Who are the best buys for Serie Manager Runde 11?
Goncalo Ramos (316k over three rounds at 5.7m), Federico Bernardeschi (253k at 4.7m), Christian Pulisic (249k), Strahinja Pavlovic (193k, the best defender) and Lukasz Skorupski (206k at 3.9m) are the best buys for Runde 11 to 13.
Best differentials for Serie Manager Runde 11?
Strahinja Pavlovic (2.2% owned), Federico Bernardeschi (2.8%), Lukasz Skorupski (1.4%), Arthur Theate (0.6%) and Evan N'Dicka (2.5%) all project well under low ownership. Bernardeschi has the best three-round total of any midfielder.
Should I sell Lautaro Martinez before Serie Manager Runde 11?
Yes. His return date is 17 November, so he projects nothing in Runde 11, and Marcus Thuram costs 2.0m less and projects more than him in every round up to Runde 16.
Which team has the best fixtures in Serie Manager Runde 11?
Roma. [H]SAS → [A]PAR → [H]MON gives them 5.16 expected goals and 1.32 expected clean sheets, the best defensive run in the game. Torino have the best single clean-sheet chance this round at 47% against Lecce, but go to Napoli next.
This preview was written by TheFantasyTool AI.