Serie Manager Runde 10: captain picks and best buys
Serie Manager Runde 10 preview: best buys, captain picks and differentials
Serie Manager Runde 10 starts on Saturday 31 October with Bologna against Monza and runs until Atalanta host Parma on Monday 2 November. All twenty Serie A clubs play once, with the Milan derby on Saturday night and Juventus against Napoli on Sunday. Runde 11 follows on 6-8 November, and then there is a break until Runde 12 on 21 November. That makes this round the last chance to set up for a three-round block that carries you into the second half of November. Roma have the most balanced program in the game, Como the best single fixture, and Juventus and Bologna the defences to own. Lautaro Martinez, Kenan Yildiz, Mile Svilar and Moise Kean are all unavailable this round, and none of them projects as a regular in Runde 11 either.
The full ranking is on the Serie Manager player picks page, optimal teams for Serie Manager shows how the model would build a squad for the round, and the Serie Manager predicted lineups show who is expected to start. Last week's picks are in the Serie Manager Runde 9 preview.
The programs: whose next three Runder are worth owning
Roma have the run to own. [A]UDI → [H]SAS → [A]PAR comes to 5.46 expected goals, second-best in the game, and 1.26 expected clean sheets, joint second. No week in it is weak: Udinese away is a 61% win probability with a 36% clean-sheet chance, Sassuolo at home is 59% and 41%, and Parma away is 57% and 49%. Monza at home in Runde 13 keeps it going. Roma players are the steadiest holds in the game, and they are worth buying now rather than one round into the run.
Como ([H]VEN → [A]INT → [H]CGL) top the table on attack at 5.49 expected goals, but the shape is two great weeks around one hard one. Venezia at home is the best fixture of the round: a 71% win probability and 2.56 expected goals. Inter away in Runde 11 drops them to 1.15 expected goals and an 18% clean-sheet chance, and Cagliari at home in Runde 12 brings them back up to 1.78 goals and 48%. That is two very good fixtures out of three, which is enough to buy, and the Inter week is one to sit through rather than sell into. Serie Manager caps you at four players per club, so a Como block is four at most.
Juventus ([H]NAP → [A]FIO → [H]VEN) have the best defensive run at 1.31 expected clean sheets. Napoli at home is a 37% clean-sheet chance, Fiorentina away 40% and Venezia at home 53%, the best clean-sheet chance any team has in Runde 12. Bologna ([H]MON → [A]PAR → [H]UDI) match Roma at 1.26 expected clean sheets for less money: a 37% clean-sheet chance against Monza, 46% at Parma and 44% against Udinese. Bologna's run fades after that, with Roma at home in Runde 14, so treat their players as a three-round buy.
Lazio and Atalanta are the sell-into teams. Lazio host Cagliari with a 46% clean-sheet chance, the best of the round, and Atalanta host Parma with 45% and 2.04 expected goals. After that Lazio go to Napoli (0.87 expected goals, 21% clean-sheet chance) and Atalanta go [A]MON → [H]INT, where the Inter game is an 18% clean-sheet chance. Milan have the opposite shape: the derby at home to Inter is a 28% win probability, then [A]GEN → [H]FRC (2.14 expected goals) is one of the better attacking stretches in the window. Napoli are similar, with a 22% win probability in Turin before [H]LAZ → [H]TOR. Parma (2.29 expected goals) and Lecce (2.61) are the weakest attacks over the three rounds, and Venezia (0.54 expected clean sheets), Udinese (0.58) and Cagliari (0.59) the defences to avoid.
| Team | Runde 10 fixture | Win probability | Expected goals | Clean sheet | Program (Runde 10-12) | 3-round xG | 3-round CS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Como | [H]VEN | 71% | 2.56 | 38% | [H]VEN → [A]INT → [H]CGL | 5.49 | 1.03 |
| Roma | [A]UDI | 61% | 2.04 | 36% | [A]UDI → [H]SAS → [A]PAR | 5.46 | 1.26 |
| Inter | [A]MIL | 47% | 1.74 | 27% | [A]MIL → [H]COM → [A]ATA | 5.18 | 0.86 |
| Milan | [H]INT | 28% | 1.29 | 18% | [H]INT → [A]GEN → [H]FRC | 4.82 | 0.91 |
| Juventus | [H]NAP | 52% | 1.65 | 37% | [H]NAP → [A]FIO → [H]VEN | 4.79 | 1.31 |
| Atalanta | [H]PAR | 66% | 2.04 | 45% | [H]PAR → [A]MON → [H]INT | 4.72 | 0.91 |
| Bologna | [H]MON | 55% | 1.78 | 37% | [H]MON → [A]PAR → [H]UDI | 4.69 | 1.26 |
| Lazio | [H]CGL | 64% | 1.93 | 46% | [H]CGL → [A]NAP → [H]LEC | 4.38 | 1.16 |
| Napoli | [A]JUV | 22% | 0.98 | 19% | [A]JUV → [H]LAZ → [H]TOR | 4.20 | 1.06 |
| Frosinone | [H]TOR | 44% | 1.76 | 23% | [H]TOR → [A]CGL → [A]MIL | 4.06 | 0.60 |
| Torino | [A]FRC | 31% | 1.47 | 17% | [A]FRC → [H]LEC → [A]NAP | 3.72 | 0.84 |
| Fiorentina | [A]SAS | 41% | 1.62 | 23% | [A]SAS → [H]JUV → [A]MON | 3.69 | 0.83 |
| Sassuolo | [H]FIO | 34% | 1.46 | 20% | [H]FIO → [A]ROM → [H]GEN | 3.69 | 0.71 |
| Monza | [A]BOL | 20% | 1.00 | 17% | [A]BOL → [H]ATA → [H]FIO | 3.48 | 0.74 |
| Genoa | [A]LEC | 34% | 1.13 | 32% | [A]LEC → [H]MIL → [A]SAS | 3.17 | 0.83 |
| Udinese | [H]ROM | 17% | 1.01 | 13% | [H]ROM → [A]VEN → [A]BOL | 2.98 | 0.58 |
| Venezia | [A]COM | 12% | 0.98 | 8% | [A]COM → [H]UDI → [A]JUV | 2.97 | 0.54 |
| Cagliari | [A]LAZ | 14% | 0.78 | 14% | [A]LAZ → [H]FRC → [A]COM | 2.89 | 0.59 |
| Lecce | [H]GEN | 35% | 1.14 | 32% | [H]GEN → [A]TOR → [A]LAZ | 2.61 | 0.77 |
| Parma | [A]ATA | 13% | 0.80 | 13% | [A]ATA → [H]BOL → [H]ROM | 2.29 | 0.61 |
The rest of the autumn is on the Serie Manager schedule, and the bookmaker lines behind these numbers are on market probabilities.
Goalkeepers for Runde 10
Pierluigi Gollini (3.8m, ROM) is the goalkeeper to buy. [A]UDI → [H]SAS → [A]PAR projects 81k → 65k → 68k, a 214k total, and his 21.5k per million this round is the best ratio in the position. The model keeps him in goal after Svilar's return date, and he is owned by just 6.5%.
Guglielmo Vicario (5.1m, JUV) has the best three-round total of any keeper at 220k: [H]NAP → [A]FIO → [H]VEN projects 67k → 68k → 85k, and he is back up at 85k against Udinese in Runde 14. This is where the round and the program disagree. Jean Butez (4.5m, COM), Marco Carnesecchi (4.5m, ATA) and Gollini all project 81k this round, but Butez drops to 38k at Inter and Carnesecchi to 58k → 41k over [A]MON → [H]INT. If you are buying one keeper and keeping him, buy Vicario or Gollini.
The hidden gem is Lukasz Skorupski (3.7m, BOL). [H]MON → [A]PAR → [H]UDI projects 67k → 69k → 66k, a 202k total that is third among keepers, and only 0.7% own him. Mike Maignan (5.2m, MIL), owned by 21.8%, is a hold rather than a sale: the derby drops him to 40k, but [A]GEN → [H]FRC follows at 69k → 75k and he projects 85k against Parma in Runde 14.
Defenders for Runde 10
Gleison Bremer (5.3m, JUV) is the defender to buy and keep. [H]NAP → [A]FIO → [H]VEN projects 66k → 59k → 83k with 87 projected minutes, a 209k total that is the best of any defender, and he is back at 80k against Udinese in Runde 14. Pierre Kalulu (4.9m, JUV) is the cheaper Juventus option at 55k → 54k → 75k.
Roma give you three defenders on the same run. Evan N'Dicka (4.3m, ROM) is the value pick: [A]UDI → [H]SAS → [A]PAR projects 73k → 59k → 65k, a 197k total, with 82 projected minutes and 2.8% ownership. Gianluca Mancini (5.1m, 2.1%) projects 72k → 61k → 65k for 0.8m more, and Wesley (4.5m, 11.6%) 73k → 59k → 63k with 71 projected minutes.
Bologna are the budget route into a good defence. Arthur Theate (2.6m, BOL) projects 63k → 56k → 57k over [H]MON → [A]PAR → [H]UDI with 82 projected minutes, a 175k total at 24.3k per million, and he is owned by 0.1%. Juan Miranda (3.8m, BOL) is the higher-ceiling Bologna defender at 68k → 62k → 62k, 192k over the three, with 0.18 expected assists this round. Both are three-round holds, since Bologna's run ends with Roma in Runde 14.
Kaiki (3.1m, COM) tops the position this round at 86k against Venezia, 28.0k per million, and [H]VEN → [A]INT → [H]CGL projects 86k → 28k → 74k. He out-scores Bremer by 20k this round, but Bremer has 21k more over the three and no Inter week. Kaiki is the cheap pick for two very good fixtures out of three; Bremer is the one you buy and stop thinking about. Yan Couto (3.4m, 27.1%) and Jacobo Ramon (3.5m, 16.0%) have the same Como shape and are holds for their owners.
Federico Dimarco (6.0m, INT), owned by 46.6%, is a hold. [A]MIL → [H]COM → [A]ATA projects a flat 72k → 64k → 61k, and Inter's program turns in Runde 13 and 14, where he projects 76k → 80k. Relja Obric (2.0m, ATA) projects 61k at home to Parma at 30.9k per million, but he drops to 31k → 14k after it, so he is a one-round pick only and the one to sell again before Runde 11.
Midfielders for Runde 10
Federico Bernardeschi (4.4m, BOL) is the hidden gem of the round. [H]MON → [A]PAR → [H]UDI projects 95k → 78k → 90k, a 264k total that is the best of any midfielder, at 21.6k per million and 1.2% ownership. He has 0.29 expected goals and 0.24 expected assists against Monza. Nico Paz (5.8m, COM) tops the position this round at 117k, but Bernardeschi has 17k more over the three for 1.4m less. If you are choosing one, Bernardeschi is the buy and Paz the hold.
Matias Soulé (6.4m, ROM) is the premium midfielder to own. [A]UDI → [H]SAS → [A]PAR projects 105k → 78k → 75k, a 259k total, second in the position, and he is owned by 8.9%. Nico Paz, in 55.7% of teams, is a hold: 117k → 38k → 91k over [H]VEN → [A]INT → [H]CGL, so the Inter week is the one dip in his run.
Lucas Da Cunha (5.3m, COM) is the differential way into Como's Venezia game. He is Como's penalty taker, projects 108k this round with 0.33 expected goals and 0.20 expected assists, and only 1.6% own him. After that it is 39k → 58k over [A]INT → [H]CGL, so he is a one-fixture buy unless you also want him for Cagliari in Runde 12.
Christian Pulisic (6.6m, MIL) is the one you can wait a round on. The derby drops him to 69k, but [A]GEN → [H]FRC follows at 79k → 108k, a 256k total, and he projects 89k against Parma in Runde 14. Buy him before Runde 11 or 12 rather than for the derby.
Two cheap midfielders carry the longest runs. Domenico Berardi (3.4m, SAS), Sassuolo's penalty taker, projects 83k → 43k → 78k over [H]FIO → [A]ROM → [H]GEN and then 49k → 79k, at 24.4k per million and 7.9% ownership. Franco Mastantuono (3.1m, FIO) projects 87k → 42k → 62k over [A]SAS → [H]JUV → [A]MON and then 73k → 74k, and his 28.3k per million is the best ratio of any midfielder above 40k this round. Both have one weak week in the window and good fixtures either side of it.
Nicolo Cambiaghi (3.7m, BOL) is a second Bologna gem at 75k → 58k → 65k, 198k over [H]MON → [A]PAR → [H]UDI, owned by 0.1%. Mattia Zaccagni (4.6m, LAZ, 16.9%) is Lazio's penalty taker and projects 104k against Cagliari, but [A]NAP drops him to 34k before [H]LEC brings him back to 66k. Hold him if you own him; he is not a buy for the run.
Forwards for Runde 10
Donyell Malen (8.3m, ROM) is the best player in the game over the next three rounds. Roma's penalty taker projects 138k → 124k → 104k over [A]UDI → [H]SAS → [A]PAR, a 366k total that is 79k clear of any other forward, with 0.58 expected goals this round. 45.4% already own him, so he protects your rank rather than winning it, and he is the forward to buy first if you do not have him.
Anastasios Douvikas (6.1m, COM) matches Malen this round at 138k, with 0.54 expected goals against Venezia. [H]VEN → [A]INT → [H]CGL projects 138k → 47k → 102k, a 287k total that is second among forwards. Two very good fixtures out of three is enough to own him through the Inter week, and with Kean out he has the Como attack to himself.
Randal Kolo Muani (5.4m, JUV) is the value forward. [H]NAP → [A]FIO → [H]VEN projects 92k → 69k → 102k with 81 projected minutes, a 262k total, and he is at 93k against Udinese in Runde 14. At 15.4% ownership he is cheaper than Douvikas and only 25k behind him over the three.
Goncalo Ramos (5.7m, MIL), owned by 36.6%, is a hold. The derby is his weakest fixture at 62k, and [A]GEN → [H]FRC follows at 79k → 117k. Marcus Thuram (9.1m, INT) is a flat 89k → 76k → 74k, with Inter's better fixtures from Runde 13. Nikola Krstovic (7.1m, ATA) projects 105k against Parma but falls to 62k → 44k over [A]MON → [H]INT, so his 71k fee is a lot for one round.
On a budget, Mateo Pellegrino (3.3m, FIO) projects 60k this round at 18.2k per million and 0.9% ownership, then 25k → 41k → 50k → 52k over [H]JUV → [A]MON → [A]UDI → [H]CGL. Giovanni Simeone (4.6m, TOR) is a two-round option at 63k → 70k over [A]FRC → [H]LEC before Napoli away drops him to 26k.
Captain picks for Runde 10
The armband is a dead heat. Anastasios Douvikas (6.1m, COM) projects 138.2k at home to Venezia and Donyell Malen (8.3m, ROM) 137.9k at Udinese, so either is a sound captain this round. Douvikas has the better fixture, a 71% win probability against 61%; Malen has the penalties. Nico Paz is third at 117k, then Lucas Da Cunha at 108k and Soulé and Krstovic at 105k.
Looking ahead, Malen is the clear captain in Runde 11 at 124k against Sassuolo, 45k ahead of anyone else. In Runde 12 the top three are Ramos (117k against Frosinone), Pulisic (108k) and Malen (104k). So Malen is a captain option in every round of the run, and that is the strongest argument for owning him. For a deeper look at how to choose, see our guide on how to pick your fantasy captain.
Who to sell before Runde 10
Lautaro Martinez (11.2m, INT) is the clearest sale, and the time is now. He is owned by 15.2%, his return date is 17 November, and he projects minus 5k in both Runde 10 and Runde 11 and 45k when he returns in Runde 12. Malen costs 3.0m less and projects 366k over the same three rounds.
Kenan Yildiz (7.5m, JUV), owned by 5.9%, has a return date of 6 December and projects minus 5k in each of the next four rounds. There is nothing to wait for. Kolo Muani gives you the Juventus run for 2.1m less.
Mile Svilar (5.1m, ROM), owned by 7.6%, is back from 6 November, but the model keeps Gollini in goal: Svilar projects minus 5k this round, then 6k → 12k. Swapping him for Gollini now puts the better keeper on the same Roma run for 1.3m less. Moise Kean (3.7m, COM), owned by 11.7%, is in the same position behind Douvikas: minus 5k now and 18k → 33k after his return. Paulo Dybala (5.1m, ROM, 13.1%) is the one injured player you can wait on: he is back for Runde 11 and projects 36k → 54k over [H]SAS → [A]PAR.
Andy Diouf (4.1m, INT), in 19.2% of teams, is a swap rather than an emergency: 53k → 43k → 42k over the next three, against 264k for Bernardeschi at 0.3m more. Bologna's run starts this round, so the move is worth making now. Charles De Ketelaere (4.7m, ATA, 16.6%) is the sell after this round, not before it: Parma at home is a good 92k, but [A]MON → [H]INT follows at 58k → 41k. Rasmus Højlund (8.5m, NAP, 19.8%) is not a sell. Juventus away is his dip at 36k, and [H]LAZ → [H]TOR follows at 69k → 74k.
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FAQ
Who should I captain in Serie Manager Runde 10?
Anastasios Douvikas and Donyell Malen are level at 138k. Douvikas has the better fixture at home to Venezia, Malen takes Roma's penalties and is also the top captain in Runde 11 at 124k against Sassuolo. Nico Paz is third at 117k.
Who are the best buys for Serie Manager Runde 10?
Donyell Malen (366k over three rounds), Federico Bernardeschi (264k at 4.4m), Randal Kolo Muani (262k), Gleison Bremer (209k, the best defender) and Pierluigi Gollini (214k at 3.8m) are the best buys for the next three Runder.
Best differentials for Serie Manager Runde 10?
Federico Bernardeschi (1.2% owned), Lukasz Skorupski (0.7%), Arthur Theate (0.1%), Evan N'Dicka (2.8%) and Lucas Da Cunha (1.6%) all project well under low ownership. Bernardeschi has the best three-round total of any midfielder.
Should I sell Lautaro Martinez before Serie Manager Runde 10?
Yes. His return date is 17 November, so he projects minus 5k in Runde 10 and Runde 11 and 45k in Runde 12. Malen costs 3.0m less and projects 366k over the same three rounds.
Which team has the best fixtures in Serie Manager Runde 10?
Como have the best single fixture, Venezia at home with 2.56 expected goals. Over the next three rounds Roma ([A]UDI → [H]SAS → [A]PAR) have the most balanced program, and Juventus the best defensive run at 1.31 expected clean sheets.
This preview was written by TheFantasyTool AI.