Serie Manager Runde 9: captain picks and best buys

Serie Manager Runde 9 preview: best buys, captain picks and differentials

Serie Manager Runde 9 is a midweek round. It opens on Tuesday 27 October with Sassuolo against Lazio, and all twenty Serie A clubs play once before Runde 10 starts on Saturday. Inter have the best three-round program in the game, and Venezia away is the best fixture of the round. Roma have the safest defensive run, with Malen's 142k at home to Cagliari leading into the best three-round total of any player. Atalanta and Bologna have the opposite shape: a hard Runde 9, then two good fixtures. Lautaro Martinez, Moise Kean, Kenan Yildiz and Mile Svilar are all out for at least two of the next three rounds, so some of this week's moves are forced. The rest should set you up for Runde 10 and 11, the last two rounds before the international break.

The full ranking is on the Serie Manager player picks page, and optimal teams for Serie Manager shows how the model would build a squad for the round.

The programs: whose next three Runder are worth owning

Inter have the run to own. [A]VEN → [A]MIL → [H]COM comes to 6.21 expected goals, the best in the game by 0.37. The trip to Venezia carries a 72% win probability and 2.70 expected goals, the strongest attacking fixture any team has in the next three rounds. The Milan derby in Runde 10 is the week to plan around, not a reason to wait, and Como at home in Runde 11 is another good one.

Roma ([H]CGL → [A]UDI → [H]SAS) are second on attack at 5.84 and first on defence with 1.25 expected clean sheets. Cagliari at home gives them a 50% clean-sheet chance, the best of the round. That makes Roma the steadiest holds in the game. Juventus ([A]GEN → [H]NAP → [A]FIO) are next on defence at 1.21, with a 45% clean-sheet chance in Genoa, and Venezia at home follows in Runde 12.

Atalanta ([A]FIO → [H]PAR → [A]MON) are the team to buy into one round early. Fiorentina away is a 31% win probability, but Parma and Monza lift them to 5.15 expected goals over the three, third in the game. Bologna have the same shape with a harder start: [A]MIL is an 18% win probability, then [H]MON → [A]PAR. Frosinone ([H]LEC → [H]TOR → [A]CGL, 4.46 xG) are the cheap run, with two home games first.

Como and Napoli are the sell-into teams, at different times. Como's [A]TOR → [H]VEN is a good pair, but Inter away in Runde 11 drops them to 1.10 expected goals and a 17% clean-sheet chance, so that is the round to move on, not this one. Napoli's trip to Monza is a fair 52% win probability, then [A]JUV takes them to 0.93 expected goals and a 27% clean-sheet chance. Venezia (0.51 expected clean sheets) and Monza (0.55) are the defences to avoid, and Parma (2.77 xG) the weakest attack over the three rounds.

The rest of the autumn is on the Serie Manager schedule, and the bookmaker lines behind these numbers are on market probabilities.

Goalkeepers for Runde 9

Pierluigi Gollini (3.7m, ROM) is the goalkeeper to buy. He has taken over from the injured Svilar, and [H]CGL → [A]UDI → [H]SAS projects 90k → 72k → 62k. That 223k is the best three-round total of any keeper, and his 24.1k per million this round is the best ratio in the position. He is owned by just 3.6%.

Josep Martinez (5.6m, INT) ties Gollini at 90k this round, with a 36% clean-sheet chance in Venezia. [A]VEN → [A]MIL → [H]COM projects 90k → 64k → 64k, a 217k total, so Gollini edges him over the three rounds and costs 1.9m less. Buy Martinez only if you want a fourth Inter player in goal. Guglielmo Vicario (4.9m, JUV) is the steady alternative: [A]GEN → [H]NAP → [A]FIO projects 81k → 63k → 67k, then 83k against Venezia in Runde 12.

Marco Carnesecchi (4.4m, ATA) is the keeper to plan for, not to buy today. He projects only 49k at Fiorentina, but [H]PAR → [A]MON brings 85k → 78k, and his 213k over three is third in the position. He is a buy for Runde 10. On a budget, Lorenzo Palmisani (3.6m, FRC) projects 63k → 55k → 52k over [H]LEC → [H]TOR → [A]CGL at 0.4% ownership.

Defenders for Runde 9

Federico Dimarco (6.0m, INT) is the top defender of the round at 133k and the best over three. [A]VEN → [A]MIL → [H]COM projects 133k → 82k → 76k, and nearly half the game already owns him at 46.8%. Hold him; he is not a differentiator. Serie Manager caps you at four players per club, so with Thuram and Dimarco in, choose your other two Inter players with care.

Yann Bisseck (5.5m, INT) is the differential way into the same run. He projects 99k → 58k → 48k with 84 projected minutes, and only 4.9% own him. Most of his value comes in Runde 9, so he is the Inter defender to pick if you only want a short spell. Alessandro Bastoni (4.8m, 12.0%) and Manuel Akanji (5.4m) are level at 79k → 51k → 45k.

Roma give you the safest defensive run. Mario Hermoso (4.6m, ROM) projects 78k → 57k → 60k over [H]CGL → [A]UDI → [H]SAS, and keeps going with 64k against Parma in Runde 12. Leonardo Balerdi (3.3m, ROM) is the hidden gem: 73k → 53k → 54k for 1.3m less, a 181k total, at 0.3% ownership. Wesley (4.4m, 12.1%) is a fine hold at 75k → 54k → 54k. Gleison Bremer (5.2m, JUV) is the Juventus option: [A]GEN → [H]NAP → [A]FIO projects 80k → 53k → 60k with 87 projected minutes, then 77k in Runde 12.

For a budget defender, Kaiki (2.9m, COM) is the best ratio in the position at 25.8k per million. [A]TOR → [H]VEN projects 75k → 74k, but Inter away in Runde 11 drops him to 26k, so treat him as a two-round pick and sell again before Runde 11. Gabriele Calvani (2.7m, FRC) is the cheapest useful defender: [H]LEC → [H]TOR → [A]CGL projects 56k → 39k → 31k with 85 projected minutes.

Midfielders for Runde 9

Matias Soulé (6.2m, ROM) is the midfielder to buy and keep. He ties Pulisic at the top of the round with 111k, and [H]CGL → [A]UDI → [H]SAS runs 111k → 79k → 80k, a 270k total that is 33k clear of any other midfielder. He is owned by 6.1%. Christian Pulisic (6.4m, MIL) matches him this round at home to Bologna, but the derby in Runde 10 drops him to 57k, and [H]BOL → [H]INT → [A]GEN comes to 237k. If you are buying one and keeping him, buy Soulé.

Piotr Zielinski (6.1m, INT) is the Inter differential. He projects 109k in Venezia and 232k over [A]VEN → [A]MIL → [H]COM, third among midfielders, with 0.28 expected goals this round. Only 2.5% own him, against 3.9% for Nicolo Barella, who projects 193k over the same run for 0.5m more.

Franco Mastantuono (3.1m, FIO) is the best value in the game. He projects 82k at home to Atalanta, 26.8k per million, the best ratio of any player, and [H]ATA → [A]SAS → [H]JUV runs 82k → 68k → 41k. Rodrigo Mora (3.4m, ROM) is the cheap way into Roma's run: 80k → 54k → 56k. His 58 projected minutes are the risk, so check the lineups.

Frosinone's two home games make their midfield worth a look. Giorgi Kvernadze (3.8m, FRC) projects 83k → 55k → 45k over [H]LEC → [H]TOR → [A]CGL, and Giacomo Calo (4.1m, FRC), Frosinone's penalty taker, projects 85k → 54k → 44k at 0.4% ownership. Both are front-loaded, so they suit a two-round spell.

Two midfielders are buys for Runde 10, not now. Charles De Ketelaere (4.6m, ATA) projects 50k at Fiorentina, then 92k → 76k over [H]PAR → [A]MON. Federico Bernardeschi (4.2m, BOL) projects 43k at Milan, then 87k → 77k over [H]MON → [A]PAR and 73k against Udinese in Runde 12, at 1.2% ownership. If you have a spare transfer this round, Mastantuono or Kvernadze are better for Runde 9 itself.

Forwards for Runde 9

Donyell Malen (8.2m, ROM) is the player to own. He projects 142k at home to Cagliari, and [H]CGL → [A]UDI → [H]SAS runs 142k → 89k → 114k. That 346k is the best three-round total in the game, 42k ahead of anyone else. He is Roma's penalty taker, has 0.60 expected goals this round, and is owned by 36.9%.

Marcus Thuram (8.9m, INT) tops the round at 146k, with 0.50 expected goals in Venezia. [A]VEN → [A]MIL → [H]COM runs 146k → 84k → 74k, a 304k total. Thuram wins this round, but Malen has 42k more over three and costs 0.7m less. If you can only afford one, buy Malen. Francesco Pio Esposito (7.7m, INT) projects 113k → 68k → 61k and is the third Inter option if you leave out Zielinski.

Randal Kolo Muani (5.4m, JUV) is the value forward. [A]GEN → [H]NAP → [A]FIO projects 104k → 67k → 72k, then 92k against Venezia in Runde 12. He is projected for 82 minutes, at 19.2k per million. Antonio Raimondo (4.7m, FRC) projects 89k → 55k → 44k over [H]LEC → [H]TOR → [A]CGL, the cheaper front-loaded option.

Anastasios Douvikas (5.7m, 32.6%) and Goncalo Ramos (5.6m, 39.6%) are holds. Douvikas has 100k → 96k over [A]TOR → [H]VEN before Inter away, and Ramos projects 87k against Frosinone in Runde 12. For a cheap differential, Keinan Davis (3.6m, UDI) is Udinese's penalty taker and projects 70k → 41k → 63k over [A]PAR → [H]ROM → [A]VEN at 1.5% ownership. Nikola Krstovic (6.8m, ATA) joins De Ketelaere as a Runde 10 buy: 46k at Fiorentina, then 84k → 70k.

Captain picks for Runde 9

The captain scores double. Marcus Thuram (8.9m, INT) is the pick at 146k in Venezia, the highest projection of the round, worth around 292k with the armband. Donyell Malen (8.2m, ROM) is a close second at 142k against Cagliari, and Federico Dimarco (6.0m, INT) is third at 133k, a rare defender with a top-three ceiling.

Plan beyond this round too. In Runde 10 the top of the list is flat: Douvikas leads at 96k, De Ketelaere has 92k and Malen 89k. In Runde 11 Malen is a clear captain at 114k against Sassuolo, 34k ahead of the next player. That is the strongest reason to own Malen: he is a top-three captain option in each of the next three rounds.

Who to sell before Runde 9

Lautaro Martinez (11.2m, INT) is the clearest sale. He is out until 17 November and projects nothing over [A]VEN → [A]MIL → [H]COM, even though Inter have the best run in the game. 15.4% still own him. Why now: that is three dead rounds in a row, and Inter's best fixture is this one. Thuram costs 2.3m less and projects 304k over the same run.

Rasmus Højlund (8.4m, NAP) is owned by 20.2%. Monza away is a decent fixture and 84k is a respectable return, so this is not a bad week for him. But [A]JUV follows, and he drops to 39k. Why now: you can sell into a decent score now or out of a weak one in four days. Kolo Muani costs 3.0m less and projects 242k over the three rounds, against Højlund's 184k.

Moise Kean (3.7m, COM), owned by 12.0%, is out until 6 November and projects only 22k when he returns in Runde 11. Why now: that is two dead rounds, and even his return is weak. Kenan Yildiz (7.5m, JUV) is out until 6 December and projects nothing until Runde 14. Why now: 6.0% still own him, and his slot is dead for five rounds.

Mile Svilar (5.1m, ROM), owned by 7.7%, is out until 6 November, and Gollini has his place. He projects only 12k in Runde 11. Why now: Gollini costs 1.3m less and plays the same Roma run. Trevoh Chalobah (3.7m, COM, 6.3%) is in the same position, out until 6 November with 14k in Runde 11.

Paulo Dybala (5.1m, ROM, 13.3%) is not an urgent sale. He is out for Runde 9 and 10 but expected back for Runde 11, and he projects 76k → 79k → 79k from there. Mora projects 80k → 54k over the two missed rounds, so swap Dybala for Mora only if you are already selling elsewhere. Nico Paz (5.8m, 56.0%) is projected for only 49 minutes in midweek, but he projects 71k → 81k over [A]TOR → [H]VEN. Hold him through Runde 10, and plan the move before Inter away in Runde 11.

Last round's calls are in the Serie Manager Runde 8 preview, and every round of the season is in the Serie Manager preview hub. Check the predicted lineups for Serie Manager before the deadline, especially for Nico Paz, Mora and Bisseck. New to holdet.dk managerspil? Our fantasy guides cover the basics behind these numbers.

FAQ

Who should I captain in Serie Manager Runde 9?

Marcus Thuram. He projects 146k at Venezia, the highest of the round, just ahead of Donyell Malen at 142k against Cagliari. Malen is the better captain plan across the next three rounds and a clear first choice in Runde 11.

Should I sell Lautaro Martinez before Serie Manager Runde 9?

Yes. Lautaro is out until 17 November and projects nothing in Runde 9, 10 and 11. Marcus Thuram plays the same Inter run at 146k → 84k → 74k and costs 2.3m less.

Should I sell Rasmus Højlund before Serie Manager Runde 9?

Yes, this round. He projects a decent 84k at Monza, but only 39k at Juventus in Runde 10. Randal Kolo Muani costs 3.0m less and projects 242k over the next three rounds, against Højlund's 184k.

Which budget players are best for Serie Manager Runde 9?

Franco Mastantuono (3.1m) projects 82k against Atalanta, the best points per million in the game. Kaiki (2.9m) projects 75k → 74k over the next two rounds, and Leonardo Balerdi (3.3m) is the cheap way into Roma's defence at 73k → 53k → 54k.

Best differentials for Serie Manager Runde 9?

Pierluigi Gollini (3.7m, 3.6% owned, 223k over three rounds), Piotr Zielinski (6.1m, 2.5%, 109k at Venezia), Leonardo Balerdi (3.3m, 0.3%) and Federico Bernardeschi (4.2m, 1.2%, a buy for Runde 10 with 87k → 77k).

This preview was written by TheFantasyTool AI.