RSL Fantasy Gameweek 12: captain picks and best buys
RSL Fantasy Gameweek 12 preview: best buys, captain picks and differentials
RSL Fantasy Gameweek 12 is the round where Al Hilal's run begins. Their next three are [H]FAT → [A]ETT → [H]DIR, the best three-round program in the Saudi Pro League by a distance, and the transfer you make before the 27 October deadline is really a decision about Gameweeks 12 to 14. The matches are played from 29 to 31 October. This preview covers the best buys per position, the captain plan, the differentials worth a transfer and the popular players to move on, with every pick judged on his next three fixtures rather than this round alone. For the full numbers, keep the RSL Fantasy player picks open alongside, and if you missed last week, here is our RSL Fantasy Gameweek 11 preview.
The programs: whose next three gameweeks are worth owning
Al Hilal sit at the top on every measure. Their 8.27 expected goals across Gameweeks 12 to 14 is more than a goal clear of anyone else, and 1.46 expected clean sheets is the best defensive run in the league too. That is backed by what they have done so far: 3.33 xG per league game, the highest in the division, and five clean sheets in nine league matches. The Al-Ettifaq away game in Gameweek 13 is the softest-looking part of it on paper, and it is still a 71% win probability.
Al Nassr are second with [H]KLD → [A]HAZ → [H]QAD: 7.10 expected goals and 1.11 expected clean sheets. Two of those three are excellent, and the Al Qadasiya game is the one to plan around rather than avoid. Al Nassr have the best defence in the league so far, allowing just 0.70 xG per game. Al Ahli's [A]SHB → [H]TWN → [H]FSL is the sleeper among the big clubs: 1.18 expected clean sheets is the second-best defensive run, and two home games follow the trip to Al Shabab.
Al Qadasiya are the case for timing. [A]RIY → [H]FYH are two of their best fixtures of the next six, a 60% and a 66% win probability, before [A]NAS in Gameweek 14 drops their expected goals to 1.33. At the bottom, Al Diriyah ([H]NEO → [A]FSL → [A]HIL, 2.24 expected goals) and Al-Ettifaq (0.37 expected clean sheets, the lowest) are the programs to stay away from.
One schedule note: Abha and Al-Faisaly already played their Gameweek 12 meeting on 11 October, so each has one Gameweek 12 fixture left: Abha host Al Ittihad and Al-Faisaly visit Al-Fayha. Every club has exactly three fixtures in the window below, so the 3-round columns compare like with like. Dates for every round are on the RSL Fantasy schedule.
| Team | GW12 fixture | Win probability | Expected goals | Clean sheet | Program GW12-14 | 3-round xG | 3-round CS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Hilal | [H]FAT | 78% | 2.73 | 46% | [H]FAT → [A]ETT → [H]DIR | 8.27 | 1.46 |
| Al Nassr FC | [H]KLD | 75% | 2.57 | 46% | [H]KLD → [A]HAZ → [H]QAD | 7.10 | 1.11 |
| Al Qadasiya | [A]RIY | 60% | 2.28 | 29% | [A]RIY → [H]FYH → [A]NAS | 5.84 | 0.80 |
| Al Ahli | [A]SHB | 53% | 1.86 | 32% | [A]SHB → [H]TWN → [H]FSL | 5.56 | 1.18 |
| Al Ittihad | [A]ABH | 52% | 2.01 | 26% | [A]ABH → [H]NEO → [A]KLJ | 5.40 | 0.72 |
| Al-Taawoun | [H]ETT | 52% | 1.92 | 28% | [H]ETT → [A]AHL → [H]ABH | 4.87 | 0.76 |
| Al Shabab | [H]AHL | 22% | 1.14 | 16% | [H]AHL → [A]ABH → [H]ETT | 4.86 | 0.62 |
| Neom SC | [A]DIR | 53% | 1.66 | 38% | [A]DIR → [A]ITT → [H]KLD | 4.64 | 0.88 |
| Al Khaleej | [H]HAZ | 45% | 1.53 | 31% | [H]HAZ → [A]KLD → [H]ITT | 4.37 | 0.78 |
| Al Riyadh | [H]QAD | 19% | 1.24 | 10% | [H]QAD → [A]FAT → [H]HAZ | 4.25 | 0.52 |
| Abha | [H]ITT | 25% | 1.36 | 13% | [H]ITT → [H]SHB → [A]TWN | 3.92 | 0.44 |
| Al Fateh FC | [A]HIL | 7% | 0.77 | 6% | [A]HIL → [H]RIY → [A]FYH | 3.85 | 0.57 |
| Al-Ettifaq | [A]TWN | 25% | 1.28 | 15% | [A]TWN → [H]HIL → [A]SHB | 3.64 | 0.37 |
| Al Hazem | [A]KLJ | 28% | 1.17 | 22% | [A]KLJ → [H]NAS → [A]RIY | 3.49 | 0.50 |
| Al-Faisaly | [A]FYH | 33% | 1.08 | 32% | [A]FYH → [H]DIR → [A]AHL | 3.46 | 0.97 |
| Al-Fayha | [H]FSL | 36% | 1.13 | 34% | [H]FSL → [A]QAD → [H]FAT | 3.45 | 0.73 |
| Al Kholood | [A]NAS | 9% | 0.78 | 8% | [A]NAS → [H]KLJ → [A]NEO | 3.20 | 0.55 |
| Al Diriyah | [H]NEO | 21% | 0.97 | 19% | [H]NEO → [A]FSL → [A]HIL | 2.24 | 0.44 |
The table is sorted by 3-round expected goals. The 3-round CS column is a count of expected clean sheets from three matches, not a percentage.
Best goalkeepers for RSL Fantasy Gameweek 12
Yassine Bounou (5.5m, HIL) is the goalkeeper to own for the next month. His program is [H]FAT → [A]ETT → [H]DIR and he projects 4.9 → 4.8 → 5.5, which is 15.2 points over three gameweeks and almost three points clear of the next keeper. Al Fateh carry a 7% win probability into this round and Al Hilal a 46% clean-sheet chance. He is already owned by 31.3%, so he protects rank rather than winning it, and that is exactly why he should not be left out.
If you want to keep money for outfield players, Abdulrahman Al-Sanbi (4.4m, AHL) is where the round ranking and the three-round ranking disagree. He is only ninth among keepers this gameweek at 3.8, but his [A]SHB → [H]TWN → [H]FSL program lifts him to 4.2 and 4.3, and his 12.3 over three gameweeks is third among all goalkeepers. If you are buying one keeper and keeping him, Al-Sanbi is the better hold than Bento Krepski (5.5m, NAS), whose 4.7 this round falls to 4.0 and 3.5 as Al Nassr's opponents get harder.
A deeper differential is Orlando Mosquera (5.0m, FYH) at 1.7% ownership: 4.6 → 3.2 → 4.2 on [H]FSL → [A]QAD → [H]FAT, and his projection climbs to 5.0 at [A]DIR in Gameweek 15. The Al Qadasiya week is the weak spot, so he works best as one of two rotating keepers.
Best defenders for RSL Fantasy Gameweek 12
Kalidou Koulibaly (5.0m, HIL) is the defender of the three-round window. He projects 5.8 → 5.9 → 6.8 on [H]FAT → [A]ETT → [H]DIR, 18.5 points, the most of any defender, and the trajectory rises into the Al Diriyah home game. At 17.7% ownership he is also less template than Mohammed Mahzari (5.2m, HIL, 25.3%), who projects 5.0 → 5.0 → 6.0 on the same program. If you only have room for one Al Hilal defender, it is Koulibaly.
Andrei Girotto (4.6m, FSL) tops the defender ranking for this round alone at 5.9, and his Gameweek 13 is the best single defender projection in the window: 7.4 at home to Al Diriyah. His program is [A]FYH → [H]DIR → [A]AHL, and the Al Ahli trip in Gameweek 14 takes him down to 4.6. That is the disagreement to know about: Girotto out-scores Koulibaly over the next two gameweeks, Koulibaly is ahead over three (18.5 against 17.9) and keeps climbing. Girotto has played every league minute this season, 810 of them, with a goal and an assist, and at 7.1% ownership he is the cheapest way into a two-week spike.
Marin Petkov (5.0m, TWN) is the differential at 6.2% ownership. His program, [H]ETT → [A]AHL → [H]ABH, has two very good home games around one hard away trip, and his projection reads 5.7 → 3.6 → 6.4. Two very good fixtures out of three is a clean buy, and both bookend weeks rank him among the top three defenders.
From the Al Nassr defence, Nawaf Al-Boushail (5.1m, NAS) is the pick: 5.5 → 5.6 → 4.8 on [H]KLD → [A]HAZ → [H]QAD, 15.9 points, ahead of the more expensive Inigo Martinez (5.5m, 15.6). On a tighter budget, Mansour Hamzi (3.8m, KLJ) returns 1.26 points per million this round, second only to Girotto among defenders. His [H]HAZ → [A]KLD → [H]ITT reads 4.8 → 3.9 → 3.6, so he is a cheap fifth defender who plays every week, not a starter to build around.
Mohammed Abu Al Shamat (7.0m, QAD) is the most-owned player in the game at 47.0%, and he is a hold for now: 5.4 → 6.3 over the next two gameweeks on Al Qadasiya's best fixtures. The question arrives in Gameweek 14, when [A]NAS drops him to 3.7. You can wait a round, or two, on this one.
Best midfielders for RSL Fantasy Gameweek 12
Julian Quinones (12.0m, QAD) is the top midfielder this round and over the horizon. He projects 7.7 → 7.6 → 4.8 on [A]RIY → [H]FYH → [A]NAS, and 7.8 again at [H]FAT in Gameweek 15, so the Al Nassr game is a single dip inside a strong run. His six-gameweek weighted score of 24.8 is the best of any midfielder. He is Al Qadasiya's penalty taker and has 4 goals and 3 assists from 6.65 xG this league season, 0.96 expected goal involvements per 90.
The Al Hilal pair close the gap by Gameweek 14. Crysencio Summerville (8.7m, HIL) goes 6.2 → 6.4 → 7.1 on [H]FAT → [A]ETT → [H]DIR for 19.7 points, and he has 3 goals and 3 assists with 0.94 xGI per 90 so far. He is owned by 39.9%, so he is the safe choice. Sergej Milinkovic-Savic (9.6m, HIL) projects almost the same, 6.0 → 6.4 → 7.1 for 19.5, at 11.3% ownership. That is the cleanest differential among the premiums: Summerville's points for a fraction of the ownership. Ruben Neves (9.2m, HIL) takes Al Hilal's penalties and projects 6.4 → 5.4 → 5.8, but with Bounou, Koulibaly and Watkins on the list you can only take three Al Hilal players, so he is the one most likely to miss out.
Tijjani Reijnders (7.3m, QAD) is the value route into Al Qadasiya's two good weeks: 5.7 → 5.8, then 4.1 at [A]NAS. At 0.78 points per million this round he is the best-value midfielder above 6.0m, and the Al Nassr dip means he can be a two-week holding pick before you rotate him out.
The hidden gem in midfield is Samu (6.0m, NAS) at 1.0% ownership. He gets Al Nassr's [H]KLD → [A]HAZ → [H]QAD program, projects 4.6 → 5.2 → 4.6 for 14.4 points and is expected to play 72 minutes this round. Joao Félix (10.5m, NAS) is the premium version at 18.0 points over three gameweeks; Samu is the budget version that leaves money for Watkins.
The cheapest midfielders with the best value this round are at Al Hazem: Amir Sayoud (5.3m) at 4.9 and Aboubacar Bah (5.4m) at 4.6. Their next game is [H]NAS in Gameweek 13, so they are one-week picks only, and with one free transfer a week that is rarely worth it.
Best forwards for RSL Fantasy Gameweek 12
Ollie Watkins (10.2m, HIL) is the buy of the round, and Gameweek 12 is when to make it. He projects 8.0 → 7.6 → 8.5 on [H]FAT → [A]ETT → [H]DIR, 24.1 points over three gameweeks and the highest six-gameweek weighted score of any player in the game at 26.25. He has 4 goals and 4 assists in 484 league minutes, 0.96 xGI per 90, and the model expects him to play 85 minutes this week. He is 25.8% owned, so the managers without him are about to fall behind for three gameweeks in a row.
Cristiano Ronaldo (12.5m, NAS) is the premium alternative: 7.0 → 6.2 → 5.6 on [H]KLD → [A]HAZ → [H]QAD, with Al Nassr's penalties. The trajectory falls as the opponents get harder, so he is a strong hold rather than a must-buy. Abderrazak Hamdallah (7.9m, TWN) is the mid-price option on [H]ETT → [A]AHL → [H]ABH: 6.6 → 4.1 → 6.6, two very good home games either side of the Al Ahli trip, and Al-Taawoun's penalty taker.
Among the budget forwards, Younes El Bahraoui (5.0m, TWN) leads on value at 1.00 point per million and 0.3% ownership, with the same Al-Taawoun program at 5.0 → 3.4 → 5.5. He is expected to play 55 minutes, so he suits a bench spot that can step in. George Ilenikhena (5.0m, ITT) is 33.6% owned at the same price and projects 3.0 → 3.8 → 3.4; El Bahraoui out-scores him in two of the three gameweeks.
RSL Fantasy Gameweek 12 captain picks
Ollie Watkins (10.2m, HIL) is the captain on [H]FAT → [A]ETT → [H]DIR. His 8.0 is the highest projection of the round, and with the double-points armband he projects 16.0. More importantly, he is the captain plan for the next three gameweeks too: 7.6 in Gameweek 13 shares top spot with Quinones, and his 8.5 against Al Diriyah in Gameweek 14 is the highest single projection in the window. Buying him this week sorts your armband until November.
Julian Quinones (12.0m, QAD) is the alternative at 7.7 at [A]RIY, with [H]FYH → [A]NAS to follow, and the right call if you already own him and cannot fit Watkins this week. Cristiano Ronaldo (12.5m, NAS) is third at 7.0 on [H]KLD → [A]HAZ → [H]QAD; Al Kholood carry a 9% win probability into Gameweek 12. Watch the RSL Fantasy predicted lineups and the market probabilities for each fixture if you want a second opinion on the top three.
Who to sell before RSL Fantasy Gameweek 12
Ivan Toney (12.2m, AHL) is the big decision. He is owned by 43.3% and has 11 league goals from 10.01 xG in 684 minutes. But he did not feature in Al Ahli's league game on 19 October, and the model has him on 46 minutes this round with a 44% chance to start, which leaves him at 4.1 → 5.8 → 5.5. Al Ahli's [A]SHB → [H]TWN → [H]FSL is a decent program, so this is not about the fixtures. Why now: Watkins' run starts this week and Toney's minutes question is largest this week, and swapping one for the other frees 2.0m. If Al Ahli confirm he is fit before the deadline, waiting a round is reasonable, so check the predicted lineups on deadline day.
Nacho Fernandez (5.6m, QAD) is the clearer sell. He is owned by 39.6% but projected for 17 minutes this round, and on [A]RIY → [H]FYH → [A]NAS his next three read 0.8 → 1.5 → 1.2. Why now: Al Qadasiya's two best fixtures are this round and next, and his minutes projection means he gets none of them. Koulibaly or Girotto take the slot for less money.
Angelo Gabriel (6.4m, NAS) is owned by 29.9% and projects 2.2 → 2.0 → 3.4, with a 32% chance to start this round. The Al Nassr program is excellent, which is exactly the point: Samu (6.0m) gets the same [H]KLD → [A]HAZ → [H]QAD as a projected starter for less money, so the swap is a straight upgrade this week.
Moussa Dembélé (6.9m, ETT) is owned by 22.2% and projects 3.0 → 3.1 → 3.9 on [A]TWN → [H]HIL → [A]SHB with a 50% start chance. [A]TWN is a fair fixture this round, but [H]HIL follows, and Al-Ettifaq's 0.37 expected clean sheets is the lowest three-round total in the league. Selling now gives you the full Al Hilal run with whoever replaces him.
Best Loan Rangers team for RSL Fantasy Gameweek 12
If you play Loan Rangers, RSL Fantasy's one-week free-hit chip, this round, the strongest starting XI for Gameweek 12 within the normal squad rules is a 4-3-3:
- GK: Bento Krepski (5.5m, NAS) 4.7
- DEF: Andrei Girotto (4.6m, FSL) 5.9, Kalidou Koulibaly (5.0m, HIL) 5.8, Marin Petkov (5.0m, TWN) 5.7, Malang Sarr (5.3m, NEO) 5.6
- MID: Julian Quinones (12.0m, QAD) 7.7, Ruben Neves (9.2m, HIL) 6.4, Tijjani Reijnders (7.3m, QAD) 5.7
- FWD: Ollie Watkins (10.2m, HIL, captain) 8.0, Cristiano Ronaldo (12.5m, NAS) 7.0, Abderrazak Hamdallah (7.9m, TWN) 6.6
That is 69.1 projected points before the captain and 77.1 with Watkins' armband. Krepski starts in goal instead of Bounou only because the three-per-club limit is spent on Koulibaly, Neves and Watkins. Gameweek 12 is an ordinary single-fixture round, though, so there is no strong case to spend the chip here. The live, exact version is on our RSL Fantasy optimal teams page, which re-solves as the projections move.
Gameweek 12 transfer summary
The transfer of the week, and the top name in the player picks for Gameweeks 12 to 14, is Watkins, funded from whichever of Toney, Nacho Fernandez, Angelo Gabriel or Dembélé you own. Koulibaly is the defender to hold for three weeks, Girotto the cheaper two-week spike, and Milinkovic-Savic and Samu are the differentials that use the two best programs in the league without following the template. Every RSL Fantasy preview is collected in the RSL Fantasy preview hub.
FAQ
Who should I captain in RSL Fantasy Gameweek 12?
Ollie Watkins is the captain for Gameweek 12, with the highest projection of the round at 8.0 at home to Al Fateh. Julian Quinones (7.7 at Al Riyadh) and Cristiano Ronaldo (7.0 against Al Kholood) are the alternatives, and Watkins also leads the captain projections in Gameweek 14.
Should I sell Ivan Toney before Gameweek 12?
Selling Ivan Toney for Ollie Watkins is the recommended move unless Al Ahli confirm his fitness before the deadline. The model has Toney on 46 minutes this round and 15.4 points over Gameweeks 12 to 14, against 24.1 for Watkins, who also costs 2.0m less.
Best differentials for RSL Fantasy Gameweek 12?
Sergej Milinkovic-Savic (11.3% owned) projects 19.5 points over the next three gameweeks, within 0.2 of Summerville. Samu (1.0%), Marin Petkov (6.2%) and Andrei Girotto (7.1%) are the cheaper differentials, each with a strong two- or three-gameweek program.
Which budget defenders are best for RSL Fantasy Gameweek 12?
Andrei Girotto at 4.6m is the best budget defender, projecting 5.9 this round and 7.4 against Al Diriyah in Gameweek 13. Mansour Hamzi at 3.8m is the cheapest projected starter with real value, at 1.26 points per million this round.
Which goalkeeper should I pick for RSL Fantasy Gameweek 12?
Yassine Bounou is the goalkeeper pick, projecting 15.2 points over Gameweeks 12 to 14 on Al Hilal's [H]FAT, [A]ETT and [H]DIR. Abdulrahman Al-Sanbi of Al Ahli is the cheaper keeper to hold, third among goalkeepers over the same three gameweeks.
This preview was written by TheFantasyTool AI.