RSL Fantasy Gameweek 10: captain picks and best buys
RSL Fantasy Gameweek 10 preview: best buys, captain picks and differentials
RSL Fantasy Gameweek 10 is a decision about the next three weeks. On paper Al Hilal's home game against Al Hazem is the standout fixture of the round. What matters more is that Al Hilal follow it with [A]QAD → [H]FAT, the best three-week run in the Saudi Pro League. Al Nassr and Al Ahli are close behind. This preview covers who to buy, who to captain, which low-owned players can win you mini-leagues and which popular picks to sell before Gameweek 10. Every pick comes with its next-three program, because you make the transfer this week but the case for it is the run behind it. All projections are from our RSL Fantasy player picks, pulled on 16 October.
Last week's thinking is in the RSL Fantasy Gameweek 9 preview. All nine Gameweek 10 fixtures are in the schedule and every club plays once, so there are no blanks this week.
Gameweek 10 programs: whose next three gameweeks are worth owning
Al Hilal's [H]HAZ → [A]QAD → [H]FAT is worth 7.81 expected goals and 1.27 expected clean sheets across three games, and both numbers lead the league. The Al Hazem game is the extreme one: an 87% win probability, 3.21 expected goals and a 57% clean-sheet chance. Al Hazem have the weakest program in the game. The trip to Al Qadasiya in Gameweek 11 is the week to plan around, but it is no reason to wait. Al Hilal assets bought this week get one great fixture straight away and another strong one in Gameweek 12.
Al Nassr ([H]NEO → [A]FSL → [H]KLD, 7.19 xG) have the most even run of the top three: three fixtures at 61% win probability or better. Al Ahli ([A]FYH → [H]KLJ → [A]SHB, 6.36 xG, 1.14 expected clean sheets) are the best defensive alternative to Al Hilal. Al Qadasiya are the trap in the top five. [A]TWN is a strong opener at 65%, but the [H]HIL game in Gameweek 11 caps what their defence can return.
| Team | GW10 fixture | Win probability | Expected goals | Clean sheet | Program (GW10-12) | 3-round xG | 3-round CS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HIL | [H]HAZ | 87% | 3.21 | 57% | [H]HAZ → [A]QAD → [H]FAT | 7.81 | 1.27 |
| NAS | [H]NEO | 71% | 2.58 | 36% | [H]NEO → [A]FSL → [H]KLD | 7.19 | 1.20 |
| AHL | [A]FYH | 71% | 2.37 | 43% | [A]FYH → [H]KLJ → [A]SHB | 6.36 | 1.14 |
| ITT | [A]ETT | 46% | 1.93 | 21% | [A]ETT → [H]DIR → [A]ABH | 6.30 | 0.85 |
| QAD | [A]TWN | 65% | 2.48 | 30% | [A]TWN → [H]HIL → [A]RIY | 6.27 | 0.74 |
| ABH | [H]KLD | 34% | 1.28 | 25% | [H]KLD → [A]NEO → [H]FSL + [H]ITT (4 fixtures) | 5.27 | 0.84 |
| SHB | [H]FSL | 61% | 2.10 | 35% | [H]FSL → [A]FAT → [H]AHL | 5.15 | 0.70 |
| TWN | [H]QAD | 16% | 1.20 | 8% | [H]QAD → [A]RIY → [H]ETT | 4.81 | 0.58 |
| NEO | [A]NAS | 12% | 1.01 | 8% | [A]NAS → [H]ABH → [A]DIR | 4.70 | 0.77 |
| FSL | [A]SHB | 17% | 1.05 | 12% | [A]SHB → [H]NAS → [A]ABH + [A]FYH (4 fixtures) | 4.19 | 0.80 |
| DIR | [H]RIY | 62% | 2.10 | 36% | [H]RIY → [A]ITT → [H]NEO | 4.07 | 0.66 |
| HAZ | [A]HIL | 3% | 0.55 | 4% | [A]HIL → [H]FYH → [A]KLJ | 3.09 | 0.48 |
Two programs need a note. Abha and Al-Faisaly each carry two Gameweek 12 fixtures in the current schedule, and one of them is their game against each other. That is why their three-round totals cover four games, and why Al-Faisaly players jump in Gameweek 12. Al Diriyah show the opposite shape. [H]RIY is a good fixture at 62%, then [A]ITT and [H]NEO pull their three-round total down to 4.07 xG, so Al Diriyah players are one-week options at best. The full fixture grid is on the RSL Fantasy schedule, and the bookmaker numbers behind these probabilities are on the RSL market probabilities page.
Best goalkeepers for Gameweek 10
Bounou (5.5m, HIL) is the keeper to own, with [H]HAZ → [A]QAD → [H]FAT behind him. He projects 5.6 → 4.3 → 5.3, 15.2 points over three weeks, and that leads all goalkeepers this round and across the three. 31.6% of managers already have him, so he protects your rank more than he gains you any.
Al-Sanbi (4.4m, AHL) is the value keeper and a set-and-forget pick. Al Ahli's [A]FYH → [H]KLJ → [A]SHB gives him a flat 4.6 → 4.6 → 4.3 (13.5 over three) at 1.05 points per million, and he is only 4.5% owned. Bento Krepski (5.5m, NAS) has a rising run: [H]NEO → [A]FSL → [H]KLD returns 4.8 → 5.0 → 5.1. He is the better choice if you would rather not double up on Al Hilal's defence.
If you only want a keeper for one week, Mory Diaw (4.5m, SHB) projects 4.8 against [H]FSL and is owned by 0.6%. His [A]FAT → [H]AHL follow-up drops him to 3.9 and 3.5, though. Treat him as a one-week pick, not a hold.
Best defenders for Gameweek 10
Koulibaly (5.0m, HIL) is the top defender this round at 7.1, and his 1.42 points per million is the best of any defender. His [H]HAZ → [A]QAD → [H]FAT program gives 7.1 → 4.8 → 6.0, 17.9 over three. At 18.2% ownership he is the cheaper way into Al Hilal's 1.27 expected clean sheets. Pair him with Bounou and the Al Hazem clean sheet pays twice. Mahzari (5.2m, HIL) (same [H]HAZ → [A]QAD → [H]FAT run, 6.1 → 3.8 → 5.0) is the second Al Hilal defender if you want the full stack.
Shaquille Pinas (5.0m, KLD) is the defensive differential of the week. Al Kholood's [A]ABH → [H]ETT → [A]NAS is a middling program, but Pinas has a 96% share of his side's penalties in the model, and very few defenders anywhere carry that. He projects 6.0 → 6.8 → 3.9. That is 16.7 over three, more than Abu Al Shamat, from a player 1.9% of managers own. Gameweek 12 at Al Nassr is the dip, so he is a two-week buy that you can sell again before Gameweek 12. His teammate Seydouba Cisse (4.5m, KLD) follows the same shape (5.5 → 5.4 → 3.2) at 0.6% ownership.
Two defenders rank differently over three weeks than they do this week. Danilo Pereira (6.0m, ITT) is only 5.3 this week but third among defenders over three weeks, on a steady 5.3 → 6.4 → 5.5 ([A]ETT → [H]DIR → [A]ABH). Andrei Girotto (4.6m, FSL) is top over three at 18.9 on [A]SHB → [H]NAS → [A]ABH + [A]FYH, but almost all of it is Gameweek 12's double (4.2 → 4.2 → 10.5). Al-Faisaly's [A]SHB this week carries a 12% clean-sheet chance, so Girotto is a buy for Gameweek 11 or 12, not now. If you are buying one defender and keeping him, buy Koulibaly. If Al Hilal is already full, Danilo Pereira is the steadier pick.
The cheap pick is Mohammed Al Doseri (3.9m, ABH), a 3.9m defender with a starting role. Abha's [H]KLD → [A]NEO → [H]FSL + [H]ITT gives him 4.6 → 3.3 → 6.6, and the Gameweek 12 double makes him a cheap hold at 6.9% ownership.
Best midfielders for Gameweek 10
Ruben Neves (9.2m, HIL) is the best midfielder this week and over three weeks. [H]HAZ → [A]QAD → [H]FAT gives him 8.4 → 6.1 → 7.4, 21.9 in total, with an 89% penalty share in the model. Crysencio Summerville (8.7m, HIL) is close behind on the same program at 8.2 → 5.2 → 6.6 (20.0) and is cheaper. Both are owned by more than a third of managers, so owning them is about not falling behind. Your league is decided by the spots after them.
Yannick Carrasco (9.0m, SHB) is the premium alternative at 10.0% ownership. He projects 7.5 → 6.2 → 4.4 over [H]FSL → [A]FAT → [H]AHL, with an 86% penalty share. The Al Ahli game in Gameweek 12 is the weak one, so buy him for the next two and review then. Tijjani Reijnders (7.2m, QAD) is the strong mid-price pick at 6.9 → 4.6 → 5.8 over [A]TWN → [H]HIL → [A]RIY, with 88 projected minutes, the most secure in this group.
The hidden gem is Lukas Haraslin (6.9m, FAT). He is owned by 0.3% of managers and projects 6.2 → 5.9 → 3.9 over [H]KLJ → [H]SHB → [A]HIL. Two home games come before the Al Hilal trip, and his projection rises to 7.2 in Gameweek 13 ([H]RIY). On the six-week decay-weighted view he scores 20.4, level with Al Ahli's Wenderson Galeno (7.4m, AHL) (6.3 → 6.0 → 5.4, 6.0% owned) and Trincao (7.9m, AHL) (6.2 → 5.7 → 5.4), both on Al Ahli's [A]FYH → [H]KLJ → [A]SHB. Galeno and Trincao are the steadier route into Al Ahli's run.
The cheap midfielder is Matheus Goncalves (5.3m, AHL) at 1.08 points per million against Al-Fayha ([A]FYH → [H]KLJ → [A]SHB). Be clear about what he is, though. His run falls to 3.3 and 2.8 after this week, so he only suits a one-week squad such as the Loan Rangers team below.
Best forwards for Gameweek 10
Ollie Watkins (10.2m, HIL) is the forward to buy. He leads every player this week at 9.1, with 0.83 expected goals against Al Hazem. Over [H]HAZ → [A]QAD → [H]FAT he projects 9.1 → 5.8 → 7.5, 22.4 in total, also the best of any player. He is only 17.7% owned, much less than Toney.
Ivan Toney (12.2m, AHL) is the template hold at 53.3%. He projects 8.1 → 7.2 → 6.5 over [A]FYH → [H]KLJ → [A]SHB and has a 93% penalty share. Keep him. Cristiano Ronaldo (12.5m, NAS) is the player where this week and the three-week view disagree. He is only fifth this round at 7.8, but second over three weeks ([H]NEO → [A]FSL → [H]KLD, 7.8 → 6.3 → 8.1, 22.2) and the best Gameweek 12 option of anyone without a double. If you can only afford one of Watkins and Ronaldo, Watkins wins this week and by a narrow margin over three.
Below the premiums, Roger Martinez (8.9m, SHB) is the differential at 2.9%. He projects 6.6 → 5.6 → 3.9 over [H]FSL → [A]FAT → [H]AHL, with 0.51 expected goals this week. Alexandre Mendy (5.4m, FSL) is the cheap forward to plan for, not to buy now. On [A]SHB → [H]NAS → [A]ABH + [A]FYH he goes 4.0 → 3.7 → 9.2 and has an 88% penalty share, so he becomes the Gameweek 12 double-fixture buy once the Al Shabab trip is out of the way. Al Diriyah's Darwin Nunez is 7.3 this week but drops to 4.1 and 4.4 after it. He is a one-week pick only.
Who to captain in RSL Fantasy Gameweek 10
Watkins (10.2m, HIL) is the captain. He has the highest projection of the round at 9.1, so 18.2 with the armband, at home to the side with the lowest expected goals in Gameweek 10. Neves is the alternative at 8.4, and he is the penalty taker if you want a captain with a set-piece floor. Summerville (8.2) and Toney (8.1, [A]FYH) are close enough to be safe, template-friendly picks.
Plan ahead as well. In Gameweek 11 the top options are Lacazette ([H]ABH, 7.4) and Toney ([H]KLJ, 7.2). In Gameweek 12 Ronaldo leads at 8.1 ([H]KLD), with Watkins on 7.5. Owning Watkins and Toney together covers the captaincy for all three weeks. For a deeper look at how we rank captains, see our guide to picking your fantasy captain.
Who to sell before Gameweek 10
Nacho Fernandez (5.7m, QAD) is the clearest sell, and he is owned by 41.8%. Al Qadasiya's [A]TWN is a good fixture and their defence is worth owning this week. Fernandez himself is projected for only 21 minutes, though, and his projection stays below 2.3 in every one of the next six gameweeks. Waiting for something to change gains you nothing, so sell this week. Moving the money to Koulibaly or Gaston Álvarez (5.0m, QAD, 5.8 this week) keeps you in a strong defence.
Roger Ibanez (6.5m, AHL) and Eduard Spertsyan (7.1m, AHL) are the same story. They are owned by 31.3% and 27.3%, and the model has them at 4 and 5 minutes for Gameweek 10. Neither climbs above 2.7 points in any of the next six gameweeks, so no later week is a better time to sell. Al Ahli's [A]FYH → [H]KLJ → [A]SHB is one of the best runs in the league. Galeno, Trincao or Demiral give you that run with a player who is expected to start.
Julian Quinones (11.9m, QAD) (38.2% owned) is projected for 23 minutes and 2.0 → 2.3 → 3.5 over [A]TWN → [H]HIL → [A]RIY. His projection does rise to 6.4 in Gameweek 13, so this is about timing. 11.9m sitting idle for three weeks costs more than he can win back in one. Selling now funds Watkins or Ronaldo, and you can buy him back once his minutes return.
Moussa Dembélé (7.0m, ETT) (24.4%) has a fair run in [H]ITT → [A]KLD → [A]TWN. The problem is his output (3.6 → 3.4 → 3.1 on 61 projected minutes), not the fixtures. Then [H]HIL comes in Gameweek 13. Lacazette costs 0.3m more and projects 18.4 over the same three weeks against Dembélé's 10.1.
Do not sell Alexandre Lacazette (7.3m, NEO) for this week alone. [A]NAS is the hardest game in Neom's next six (4.8), but [H]ABH → [A]DIR follow at 7.4 and 6.2, and he is 18.4 over three. The same goes for owners of Mailson (Al-Taawoun, 3.1 → 4.2 → 4.6) and Marcin Bulka (Neom, 2.4 → 4.4 → 4.5): this is one bad week followed by two good ones. You can wait on both.
Best Loan Rangers team for Gameweek 10
If you play the Loan Rangers chip this week, a squad maximised for Gameweek 10 alone, within the optimal-teams solver's ceiling and the three-per-club limit, starts this XI in a 3-4-3:
- GK: Waleed Abdullah (4.0m, DIR) 4.7
- DEF: Mohammed Abu Al Shamat (6.9m, QAD) 6.4 · Shaquille Pinas (5.0m, KLD) 6.0 · Saeed Baattia (4.5m, AHL) 5.8
- MID: Ruben Neves (9.2m, HIL) 8.4 · Crysencio Summerville (8.7m, HIL) 8.2 · Yannick Carrasco (9.0m, SHB) 7.5 · Tijjani Reijnders (7.2m, QAD) 6.9
- FWD: Ollie Watkins (10.2m, HIL) 9.1 (captain) · Ivan Toney (12.2m, AHL) 8.1 · Darwin Nunez (7.7m, DIR) 7.3
That XI projects 87.5 points with Watkins captained. The bench is filled with the cheapest starters. For the exact solved optimum, including your own constraints, use the live RSL Fantasy optimal teams page, and check the RSL predicted lineups before the deadline on 18 October. Our predicted lineups guide explains how they are built.
More Saudi Pro League fantasy analysis is in the RSL Fantasy preview hub.
FAQ
Who should I captain in RSL Fantasy Gameweek 10?
Ollie Watkins is the best captain for RSL Fantasy Gameweek 10, at 9.1 projected points (18.2 as captain) at home to Al Hazem, where Al Hilal have an 87% win probability. Ruben Neves (8.4) is the alternative, and Summerville (8.2) and Toney (8.1) are close behind.
Who are the best differentials for RSL Fantasy Gameweek 10?
Shaquille Pinas (5.0m, 1.9% owned) is the best differential: a penalty-taking defender projected 6.0 → 6.8 over the next two gameweeks. Lukas Haraslin (6.9m, 0.3%) and Roger Martinez (8.9m, 2.9%) are the attacking differentials.
Should I sell Nacho Fernandez before Gameweek 10?
Yes. Nacho Fernandez is owned by 41.8% but projected for 21 minutes, and he stays below 2.3 points in each of the next six gameweeks. Gaston Álvarez keeps you in Al Qadasiya's defence, or Kalidou Koulibaly moves you into Al Hilal's.
Which team has the best fixtures in RSL Fantasy from Gameweek 10?
Al Hilal have the best run: [H]HAZ → [A]QAD → [H]FAT, worth 7.81 expected goals and 1.27 expected clean sheets over three games. Al Nassr (7.19 xG) and Al Ahli (6.36 xG, 1.14 clean sheets) are next.
Is Cristiano Ronaldo worth buying for Gameweek 10?
Cristiano Ronaldo is worth it for the three-week run more than for Gameweek 10 itself. He projects 7.8 against Neom, then 6.3 and 8.1, for 22.2 points, second only to Watkins. That makes him the best captain option in Gameweek 12.
This preview was written by TheFantasyTool AI.