Premier Manager Runde 7: captain picks and best buys
Premier Manager Runde 7 preview: best buys, captain picks and differentials
Premier Manager Runde 7 starts on Saturday 17 October and all twenty clubs play once. The round itself is not the hard part of the decision. The hard part is what follows it. Brighton, Fulham and Tottenham have very good Runde 7 fixtures and then much weaker runs. Manchester City and Arsenal have the two best three-round programs in the game. Chelsea's Cole Palmer projects steadily into Runde 11. So this preview is about which moves you make now that still look right in Runde 9, and which Runde 7 points you can borrow cheaply and give back a week later.
All numbers below come from our model's projections. The full ranking is on the Premier Manager player picks page, and you can see how the model would build a squad on optimal teams for Premier Manager.
The programs: whose next three Runder are worth owning
Manchester City have the best attacking run in the game. [H]IPS → [A]AVL → [H]BHA adds up to 6.79 expected goals over three rounds, more than a goal and a half clear of anyone else. Runde 7 against Ipswich is the peak, with a 77% win probability and 2.75 expected goals. The Villa trip is the week to plan around. It is not a week to avoid.
Arsenal have the best defensive program: [A]NFO → [H]EVE → [A]LIV comes to 1.27 expected clean sheets, the highest total in the game. The run gets better after that: Runde 10 is [H]HUL with a 61% clean-sheet chance, the best single clean-sheet figure in the six-round window. Chelsea ([A]EVE → [H]TOT → [H]MUN, 5.20 xG) and Brentford ([H]LIV → [A]HUL → [H]NFO, 5.05 xG) come next. Brentford's run turns upward after Runde 7, so a Brentford buy pays off later than the Liverpool game suggests.
Brighton, Fulham and Tottenham are the one-round teams. Brighton host Crystal Palace with a 61% win probability and then go [A]LIV → [A]MCI. Fulham host Hull (37% clean-sheet chance), then [A]COV → [A]AVL. Tottenham host Coventry (65% win probability) and then go to Chelsea. Their players are cheap rotation picks for Runde 7, not holds. Stay away from Hull, Everton and Coventry: none of them projects more than 3.4 expected goals across the three rounds.
| Team | Runde 7 fixture | Win probability | Expected goals | Clean sheet | Program (Runde 7-9) | 3-round xG | 3-round CS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester City | [H]IPS | 77% | 2.75 | 44% | [H]IPS → [A]AVL → [H]BHA | 6.79 | 1.03 |
| Arsenal | [A]NFO | 60% | 1.86 | 42% | [A]NFO → [H]EVE → [A]LIV | 5.25 | 1.27 |
| Chelsea | [A]EVE | 44% | 1.66 | 27% | [A]EVE → [H]TOT → [H]MUN | 5.20 | 0.77 |
| Brentford | [H]LIV | 35% | 1.52 | 19% | [H]LIV → [A]HUL → [H]NFO | 5.05 | 0.88 |
| Tottenham Hotspur | [H]COV | 65% | 2.18 | 38% | [H]COV → [A]CHE → [H]CRY | 4.97 | 0.87 |
| Manchester United | [A]LEE | 35% | 1.46 | 21% | [A]LEE → [H]BOU → [A]CHE | 4.88 | 0.64 |
| Newcastle United | [H]AVL | 44% | 1.68 | 26% | [H]AVL → [A]CRY → [H]EVE | 4.71 | 0.77 |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | [H]CRY | 61% | 2.12 | 35% | [H]CRY → [A]LIV → [A]MCI | 4.69 | 0.63 |
| Fulham | [H]HUL | 57% | 1.87 | 37% | [H]HUL → [A]COV → [A]AVL | 4.57 | 0.87 |
| Liverpool | [A]BRE | 40% | 1.64 | 22% | [A]BRE → [H]BHA → [H]ARS | 4.56 | 0.71 |
| Coventry City | [A]TOT | 15% | 0.95 | 11% | [A]TOT → [H]FUL → [H]SUN | 3.39 | 0.59 |
| Everton | [H]CHE | 30% | 1.32 | 19% | [H]CHE → [A]ARS → [A]NEW | 3.23 | 0.55 |
| Hull City | [A]FUL | 19% | 0.99 | 15% | [A]FUL → [H]BRE → [H]IPS | 3.22 | 0.55 |
The fixture-by-fixture detail for the rest of the autumn is on the Premier Manager schedule, and the bookmaker lines behind these numbers are on market probabilities.
Goalkeepers for Runde 7
This round's top goalkeeper and the best three-round goalkeeper are different players. Gianluigi Donnarumma (5.6m, MCI) is the best keeper for Runde 7 at 90k, with a 44% clean-sheet chance against Ipswich. His program, [H]IPS → [A]AVL → [H]BHA, holds up at 90k → 71k → 67k, and only 4.5% of managers own him.
If you buy one goalkeeper and keep him, though, buy David Raya (6.1m, ARS). His program, [A]NFO → [H]EVE → [A]LIV, projects 83k → 85k → 66k, a three-round total of 234k that leads every goalkeeper. Then comes [H]HUL in Runde 10 at 104k. His weighted six-round score of 294k is the best in the position by more than 25k.
On a cheaper budget, Bernd Leno (3.7m, FUL) is a two-round option: [H]HUL → [A]COV projects 72k → 64k, which is 19.7k per million in Runde 7. Sell him again before [A]AVL. Brentford's Caoimhin Kelleher (4.4m) is the "buy next round" goalkeeper. Runde 7 against Liverpool is only 49k, but [A]HUL follows at 82k.
Defenders for Runde 7
Josko Gvardiol (5.4m, MCI) is the defender to own over the next three rounds. [H]IPS → [A]AVL → [H]BHA projects 100k → 71k → 70k, and his 241k total is more than 50k clear of every other defender. He is projected for 89 minutes, and he lets you pair Manchester City's clean sheet with Donnarumma or Haaland while staying inside the four-per-club limit. He is only 5.0% owned.
Maxim De Cuyper (3.5m, BHA) is the highest-projected defender of the round at 101k, and 36.4% of managers already own him. If you own him, keep him for [H]CRY. Do not buy him now, though: [A]LIV → [A]MCI drops him to 49k and 37k. His sale is a Runde 8 decision, made after he has scored this weekend.
For the Arsenal defence, Gabriel (5.4m, ARS) is the premium choice: 69k → 71k → 50k over [A]NFO → [H]EVE → [A]LIV, then 91k against Hull in Runde 10, the highest defender projection of that round. Jurrien Timber (4.6m, ARS) is the cheaper differential with the same program at 62k → 64k → 46k → 86k. He is owned by 1.5%, and his 75 projected minutes are well above the Arsenal full-backs most managers hold.
For the budget slot, Levi Colwill (3.1m, CHE) is the steady hold. He is projected for 89 minutes, and [A]EVE → [H]TOT → [H]MUN projects 50k → 49k → 38k. David Affengruber (2.6m, FUL) is the cheapest useful defender of the round at 52k against Hull. His fee is about 26k. Treat him as a one-round rotation pick and sell him before [A]COV → [A]AVL.
Midfielders for Runde 7
Cole Palmer (8.2m, CHE) is the midfielder to build around. [A]EVE → [H]TOT → [H]MUN projects 107k → 109k → 95k, the best three-round total of any midfielder at 311k. It does not drop off after that: 105k and 109k follow in Runde 10 and 11, for a weighted score of 375k. He is on penalties, and he has produced 0.68 expected goal involvements per 90 minutes in his early-season games. Rayan Cherki has the higher Runde 7 number, but Palmer is the better buy if you are keeping him.
Rayan Cherki (6.6m, MCI) tops the midfield for Runde 7 at 113k against Ipswich, and his [H]IPS → [A]AVL → [H]BHA program stays solid at 81k in each of the next two rounds. His 0.71 expected goal involvements per 90 in his early-season games backs up the number. The risk is minutes: he is projected for 59, which is why he is a strong pick rather than a lock.
Bruno Fernandes (7.7m, MUN) is the hold for the 26.9% who own him. [A]LEE → [H]BOU → [A]CHE → [H]AVL runs 95k → 123k → 89k → 121k, and his 123k in Runde 8 is the best midfield projection of that round. Bryan Mbeumo (7.1m, MUN) follows the same pattern, rising from 78k to 102k. He is a buy for Runde 8 rather than for this round.
Two mid-priced players stand out as hidden gems. Harvey Barnes (4.9m, NEW) projects 92k → 76k → 79k over [H]AVL → [A]CRY → [H]EVE, a 247k total at 7.3% ownership. That is within 30k of Cherki for 1.7m less. Marcus Tavernier (4.9m, BOU) is the real differential at 1.0% owned. He takes Bournemouth's penalties, and [H]SUN → [A]MUN → [H]LEE → [A]IPS projects 90k → 54k → 72k → 82k.
On a budget, Joshua King (3.3m, FUL) is a two-round pick at 82k → 62k over [H]HUL → [A]COV, which is 24.6k per million this round. Diego Gomez (3.5m, BHA) is a pure Runde 7 pick: [H]CRY → [A]LIV projects 92k → 45k. His fee is about 35k, so sell him again before the Liverpool game.
Forwards for Runde 7
Erling Haaland (15.3m, MCI) is on a third of all teams, and he has to be. [H]IPS → [A]AVL → [H]BHA projects 204k → 140k → 147k, the best forward score in each of those rounds. He has 0.98 expected goal involvements per 90 in his early-season games. Being one of the 33.9% who own him keeps you level. The rest of your squad is where you gain ground.
The second forward is where the round and the program disagree. Joao Pedro (8.4m, CHE) is second for Runde 7 at 151k, but then drops to 78k and 91k. Thiago Rodrigues (5.2m, BRE) projects only 95k against Liverpool, then 139k at Hull and 103k at home to Nottingham Forest: [H]LIV → [A]HUL → [H]NFO. That is 337k over three rounds against Joao Pedro's 319k, for 3.2m less. If you are buying one forward and keeping him, buy Thiago. He takes Brentford's penalties and has 0.85 expected goal involvements per 90 in his early-season games.
Gonzalo Garcia (3.7m, FUL) is the value forward of the round: 109k → 83k over [H]HUL → [A]COV, at 29.8k per million and 6.7% ownership. Take the two good weeks, then sell him before [A]AVL. Charalampos Kostoulas (3.1m, BHA) is the strongest one-round pick in the game. His [H]CRY → [A]LIV program starts with 116k, the third-highest projection of any player, for a fee of about 31k. He falls to 58k in the Liverpool game, so plan to sell him again for Runde 8.
Dominic Solanke (4.2m, TOT) is the low-ownership version of the same idea. His [H]COV → [A]CHE → [H]CRY program starts at 102k against Coventry. He is on penalties, and is owned by 1.4%. His [A]CHE run drops him to 48k, so he is a Runde 7-only pick. Yoane Wissa (3.7m, NEW, 24.5%) is a comfortable hold at 92k → 75k → 77k.
Captain picks for Runde 7
Erling Haaland is the captain. His 204k against Ipswich doubles to around 408k, and the next-best player in the game projects 151k. Joao Pedro is the alternative at 151k against Everton. Kostoulas (116k), Cherki (113k) and Antoine Semenyo (111k) are the only other players above 110k, but captaining any of them is a differential pick with no projection behind it.
Haaland also stays the captain into Runde 9. He leads every player in Runde 8 (140k) and Runde 9 (147k), although Thiago Rodrigues is level with him in Runde 8 at 139k. The choice opens up in Runde 10, when Bukayo Saka projects 136k against Hull and edges past Haaland's 134k. That is a reason to plan an Arsenal attacker for the end of the month.
Who to sell before Runde 7
Alexander Isak (7.7m, LIV) is the clearest sale. His program is [A]BRE → [H]BHA → [H]ARS. He is flagged unavailable, projects no minutes in Runde 7, and after that projects only 45k against Brighton and 24k against Arsenal. Why now: Runde 7 is a zero, and nothing in the next two rounds justifies a 7.7m slot. The same money gets you Palmer's 107k → 109k → 95k.
Christos Tzolis (4.7m, ARS) is owned by 17.5% and is out until the start of November. Arsenal's [A]NFO → [H]EVE → [A]LIV comes and goes without him. He projects nothing in Runde 7 or Runde 8. Why now: that is two dead rounds in a slot that Barnes or Gonzalo Garcia fills for about 170k-190k. He comes back strongly against Hull in Runde 10 (98k), so make a note to buy him again then.
Arsenal's rotating full-backs are the third sale. Myles Lewis-Skelly (3.8m, 15.3%) and Ben White (3.4m, 15.6%) project only 47 and 56 minutes, and 45k each this round. Arsenal's fixtures are not the issue: they have the best clean-sheet program in the game. Why now: that program starts this round, so swap into Timber or Gabriel before it begins rather than halfway through.
Maxence Lacroix (3.2m, CHE, 13.5%) is a sell into a decent week. Runde 7 at Everton is fine at 51k, but [H]TOT → [H]MUN drops him to 37k and 34k. Colwill costs about the same and plays more minutes. Do not panic-sell Nottingham Forest's Daniel Munoz or Liam Delap after a 16k-20k projection against Arsenal: [A]IPS follows in Runde 8 at 65k and 76k. The same goes for Kevin Schade (43.2% owned), who projects 55k against Liverpool and then 90k at Hull.
Last week's calls are in the Premier Manager Runde 6 preview, and every round of the season is collected in the Premier Manager preview hub. Check the predicted lineups for Premier Manager before the deadline, especially for Cherki and Joao Pedro.
New to holdet.dk managerspil? Our fantasy guides cover the basics behind these numbers.
FAQ
Who should I captain in Premier Manager Runde 7?
Erling Haaland. He projects 204k at home to Ipswich, 53k more than anyone else in the game, and he also leads every player in Runde 8 and Runde 9. Joao Pedro (151k at Everton) is the alternative.
Which budget players are best for Premier Manager Runde 7?
Charalampos Kostoulas (3.1m) projects 116k against Crystal Palace, Gonzalo Garcia (3.7m) 109k against Hull, and Joshua King (3.3m) 82k. For a cheap defender, David Affengruber (2.6m) projects 52k against Hull. All four are one- or two-round picks with weak fixtures after that.
Should I sell Alexander Isak before Premier Manager Runde 7?
Yes. Isak is flagged unavailable, projects no minutes in Runde 7, and projects only 45k and 24k in the two rounds after. His 7.7m is better spent on Cole Palmer or Rayan Cherki.
Best differentials for Premier Manager Runde 7?
Marcus Tavernier (4.9m, 1.0% owned, 90k and on penalties), Dominic Solanke (4.2m, 1.4%, 102k against Coventry), Jurrien Timber (4.6m, 1.5%, Arsenal's clean-sheet run) and Josko Gvardiol (5.4m, 5.0%, 241k over three rounds).
Is Cole Palmer worth buying for Premier Manager Runde 7?
Yes, as a long-term hold. Palmer projects 107k → 109k → 95k over [A]EVE → [H]TOT → [H]MUN, the best three-round total of any midfielder, and keeps above 100k in Runde 10 and 11.
This preview was written by TheFantasyTool AI.