Premier Manager Runde 11: captain picks and best buys
Premier Manager Runde 11 preview: best buys, captain picks and who to sell
Premier Manager Runde 11 starts on Saturday 21 November with Manchester City hosting Fulham and ends on Monday 23 November with Brentford against Everton. All twenty clubs play once, so there are no blanks to plan around. The transfers happen this round, but the reasons for them sit in Runde 12 and 13: Liverpool, Manchester City, Brighton & Hove Albion and Chelsea have the four best attacking runs, Arsenal have the best defensive run in the game, and Brentford's program falls away after this round.
The short version: Erling Haaland (15.7m, MCI) is the captain on [H]FUL → [A]ARS → [H]LEE, but Runde 12 at Arsenal is the one week he is not, and that is what decides which second premium to own. Most managers already have Haaland, so rank is won in the cheaper spots: Brighton's defence and attack, Tottenham's opening two rounds and a Chelsea midfield that peaks in Runde 13. Compare every option on the Premier Manager player picks page.
Runde 11 programs: whose next three rounds are worth owning
The table ranks every club by expected goals over Runde 11-13, with this round's fixture first. The three right-hand columns are the reason to buy; the first four only tell you when the buy starts paying.
| Team | Runde 11 fixture | Win probability | Expected goals | Clean sheet | Program (Runde 11-13) | 3-round xG | 3-round CS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool | [H]MUN | 52% | 1.91 | 29% | [H]MUN → [A]EVE → [H]SUN | 5.55 | 1.02 |
| Manchester City | [H]FUL | 68% | 2.36 | 38% | [H]FUL → [A]ARS → [H]LEE | 5.51 | 0.97 |
| Brighton & Hove Albion | [A]HUL | 63% | 2.05 | 40% | [A]HUL → [H]NEW → [A]BOU | 5.48 | 0.92 |
| Chelsea | [H]LEE | 53% | 1.78 | 33% | [H]LEE → [A]NFO → [H]CRY | 5.45 | 0.94 |
| Arsenal | [A]NEW | 60% | 1.98 | 38% | [A]NEW → [H]MCI → [A]BRE | 5.22 | 1.15 |
| Tottenham Hotspur | [H]IPS | 65% | 2.18 | 38% | [H]IPS → [A]SUN → [H]FUL | 5.05 | 1.05 |
| Aston Villa | [H]SUN | 55% | 1.84 | 35% | [H]SUN → [A]IPS → [H]EVE | 4.95 | 0.96 |
| AFC Bournemouth | [H]NFO | 48% | 1.65 | 31% | [H]NFO → [A]FUL → [H]BHA | 4.67 | 0.80 |
| Manchester United | [A]LIV | 24% | 1.24 | 15% | [A]LIV → [H]BRE → [A]NEW | 4.62 | 0.61 |
| Crystal Palace | [A]COV | 34% | 1.38 | 22% | [A]COV → [H]HUL → [A]CHE | 4.27 | 0.69 |
| Nottingham Forest | [A]BOU | 26% | 1.17 | 19% | [A]BOU → [H]CHE → [A]HUL | 4.09 | 0.80 |
| Brentford | [H]EVE | 50% | 1.72 | 32% | [H]EVE → [A]MUN → [H]ARS | 3.99 | 0.69 |
| Coventry City | [H]CRY | 40% | 1.52 | 25% | [H]CRY → [A]LEE → [H]IPS | 3.89 | 0.70 |
| Leeds United | [A]CHE | 22% | 1.09 | 17% | [A]CHE → [H]COV → [A]MCI | 3.78 | 0.68 |
| Newcastle United | [H]ARS | 17% | 0.96 | 14% | [H]ARS → [A]BHA → [H]MUN | 3.71 | 0.47 |
| Ipswich Town | [A]TOT | 15% | 0.95 | 11% | [A]TOT → [H]AVL → [A]COV | 3.48 | 0.55 |
| Everton | [A]BRE | 24% | 1.14 | 18% | [A]BRE → [H]LIV → [A]AVL | 3.43 | 0.61 |
| Fulham | [A]MCI | 13% | 0.96 | 10% | [A]MCI → [H]BOU → [A]TOT | 3.40 | 0.54 |
| Sunderland | [A]AVL | 20% | 1.04 | 16% | [A]AVL → [H]TOT → [A]LIV | 3.05 | 0.55 |
| Hull City | [H]BHA | 15% | 0.93 | 13% | [H]BHA → [A]CRY → [H]NFO | 2.93 | 0.50 |
Three things stand out. Liverpool have the best three-round attack at 5.55 expected goals on [H]MUN → [A]EVE → [H]SUN, and it is the most even run at the top: no fixture in it is hard. Manchester City are a split program: [H]FUL is the best fixture of the round at a 68% win probability and 2.36 expected goals, and [H]LEE in Runde 13 is nearly as good, but [A]ARS in between drops them to 1.03 expected goals. Arsenal have the best defensive run at 1.15 expected clean sheets, on [A]NEW → [H]MCI → [A]BRE, and it carries on into [A]TOT → [H]BOU, so Arsenal defenders are the ones you can buy and stop thinking about.
Brighton & Hove Albion are the value program: [A]HUL gives them the highest clean-sheet chance of the round at 40%, and [H]NEW is a good follow-up before [A]BOU turns harder in Runde 13. Tottenham Hotspur's [H]IPS → [A]SUN → [H]FUL is strong for two rounds, but [H]ARS waits in Runde 14. At the bottom, Hull City, Sunderland and Fulham have the weakest runs, and Brentford's [H]EVE → [A]MUN → [H]ARS starts well and ends badly. The full fixture list is on the Premier Manager schedule.
Best goalkeepers for Runde 11
David Raya (6.5m, ARS) is the goalkeeper to own over the next block, on [A]NEW → [H]MCI → [A]BRE. He projects 80k → 64k → 76k, then 77k in each of Runde 14, 15 and 16. That flat line is the point: Arsenal have the best three-round clean-sheet total in the game, and a goalkeeper you do not need to move again is worth more than one who wins a single round. 19.5% of managers own him.
Bart Verbruggen (5.5m, BHA) out-scores him this round at 82k, because Brighton's 40% clean-sheet chance at Hull is the best of the round. His program is [A]HUL → [H]NEW → [A]BOU and he goes 82k → 65k → 52k, so he is a two-round goalkeeper rather than a hold. If you are buying one keeper and keeping him, buy Raya; if you already rotate the position, Verbruggen at 2.5% ownership is the better Runde 11 play.
The cheaper options: Antonin Kinsky (4.6m, TOT) is the best points-per-million goalkeeper at 16.1k per million, on [H]IPS → [A]SUN → [H]FUL (75k → 60k → 59k), but [H]ARS in Runde 14 drops him to 33k, so plan to move him after three rounds. Alisson Becker (5.1m, LIV) goes the other way, 63k → 67k → 78k on [H]MUN → [A]EVE → [H]SUN, and is a buy for anyone planning ahead.
Best defenders for Runde 11
Maxim De Cuyper (3.7m, BHA) is the best defender in the game this round at 96k, and the best value at 25.8k per million. His program is [A]HUL → [H]NEW → [A]BOU (96k → 77k → 53k, 226k over three rounds), the highest three-round total of any defender. 40.1% of managers already own him, so he protects rank rather than gains it, but he is a clear hold.
Gabriel (5.9m, ARS) is the defender for the long run. He projects 81k → 61k → 71k on [A]NEW → [H]MCI → [A]BRE and stays at 69k-74k through Runde 16. Over three rounds he is second only to De Cuyper at 212k, and his six-round weighted score is close behind too. If you have one defensive slot to fill and want to keep the player, this is the pick.
Luka Vuskovic (4.4m, BHA) is the hidden gem. He projects 84k this round, more than Gabriel, on the same [A]HUL → [H]NEW → [A]BOU program as De Cuyper, and only 3.9% own him. Here this round and the three-round ranking disagree: Vuskovic wins Runde 11, Gabriel wins Runde 11-13 (212k against 196k) and keeps going after it. Vuskovic is the choice if the money is tight; Gabriel if you are buying one defender to keep.
Jan Paul van Hecke (4.2m, TOT) is the Tottenham pick on [H]IPS → [A]SUN → [H]FUL, at 79k → 53k → 55k. It is a three-round buy: [H]ARS in Runde 14 drops him to 19k, so name the sale date when you buy him. For the budget slot, Pedro Porro (3.6m, TOT) and Andrew Robertson (3.4m, TOT) both return 20.7k per million this round on the same [H]IPS → [A]SUN → [H]FUL program (75k → 46k → 45k and 70k → 45k → 44k), and Lewis Dunk (3.2m, BHA) gives Brighton's [A]HUL → [H]NEW at 66k → 49k for less again. At these prices the fee for moving them after two rounds is small.
Two more to plan around. Virgil van Dijk (5.4m, LIV) rises 56k → 56k → 69k on [H]MUN → [A]EVE → [H]SUN and is a buy for Runde 12 or 13 rather than now. Josko Gvardiol projects 80k against Fulham but only 25k at Arsenal in Runde 12, so he is a one-round defender and not a buy.
Best midfielders for Runde 11
Cole Palmer (8.5m, CHE) has the best midfield program in the game: [H]LEE → [A]NFO → [H]CRY, 107k → 78k → 128k and 313k over three rounds. He takes Chelsea's penalties and has produced 0.57 expected goal involvements per 90 minutes this season. Runde 13 at home to Crystal Palace is the peak, and he has to be in before it. After that come [H]LIV and [A]MCI, so this is a three-round buy rather than a season hold.
Mohammed Kudus (5.4m, TOT) tops the position this round at 117k against Ipswich, and only 2.6% own him. His program is [H]IPS → [A]SUN → [H]FUL (117k → 70k → 73k, 261k over three rounds), and the round order matters: he beats Palmer in Runde 11, Palmer beats him by 52k over the three. If you can fit Palmer, buy Palmer; Kudus is the differential for managers who cannot, with a sell-by date before [H]ARS in Runde 14, where he drops to 29k.
Morgan Rogers (6.6m, CHE) is owned by 31.6% and should stay: [H]LEE → [A]NFO → [H]CRY gives him 90k → 86k → 109k. Martin Ødegaard (5.7m, ARS) is the flat-line midfielder, 93k → 72k → 78k on [A]NEW → [H]MCI → [A]BRE and 71k-82k after that. He has created 5.28 expected assists this season, more than any of the other midfielders above.
The Brighton pair are the value picks. Pascal Gross (4.5m, BHA) projects 97k → 74k → 54k on [A]HUL → [H]NEW → [A]BOU and is Brighton's penalty taker. Diego Gomez (3.7m, BHA) is the best budget midfielder at 24.8k per million, 93k → 79k → 56k on the same [A]HUL → [H]NEW → [A]BOU program. Both fade in Runde 13, so they are two-round buys with Brighton's [H]EVE and [H]IPS in Runde 15 and 16 as the reason to keep one of them.
One to leave out for now: Bryan Mbeumo (7.2m, MUN) and Bruno Fernandes (7.7m, MUN) only project 67k and 62k at Liverpool this round, but Manchester United's run after it is [H]BRE → [A]NEW → [H]COV, and they climb to 101k and 96k in Runde 12 and to 130k and 131k in Runde 14. Leave them out now, a buy from Runde 12.
Best forwards for Runde 11
Erling Haaland (15.7m, MCI) is the highest-scoring player in the game at 197k against Fulham, then 80k at Arsenal and 182k against Leeds (459k over three rounds). He is Manchester City's penalty taker and has produced 0.85 expected goal involvements per 90 this season. Keep him; the Arsenal week is the one to plan your captaincy around, not a reason to sell.
Alexander Isak (8.1m, LIV) is the second premium to own: [H]MUN → [A]EVE → [H]SUN gives him 115k → 97k → 122k, 334k over three rounds and no weak week. That consistency is exactly what Haaland's program lacks, and it is why Isak is the premium captain for Runde 12 (see below).
Nicolas Jackson (6.3m, AVL) is the mid-price option on [H]SUN → [A]IPS → [H]EVE, at 108k → 95k → 83k and 102k in Runde 14. 287k over three rounds is the third-best forward total, and the run holds well past it. Charalampos Kostoulas (3.4m, BHA) is the best value in the whole game at 29.6k per million: 101k → 88k → 63k on [A]HUL → [H]NEW → [A]BOU, for a fee of about 34k.
Mathys Tel (3.8m, TOT) is the cheap differential at 2.8% ownership. He projects 93k → 56k → 57k on [H]IPS → [A]SUN → [H]FUL, so treat him as a one-round buy and sell him again before Runde 12. The fee on a 3.8m forward is too small to matter.
Captain picks for Runde 11
Holdet's captain scores double, and this round the choice is easy. Erling Haaland (15.7m, MCI) projects 197k on [H]FUL → [A]ARS → [H]LEE, 80k more than anyone else, which makes his captain ceiling around 394k. Manchester City have the best win probability of the round at 68%.
Behind him, Mohammed Kudus at 117k and Alexander Isak at 115k are the alternatives, but neither is close. The plan matters more than the round: in Runde 12 Haaland drops to 80k at Arsenal. Dominic Calvert-Lewin (114k against Coventry) and Mbeumo (101k) top that round for anyone who has brought them in, and Isak at 97k at Everton is the best option among the premiums most managers already own. In Runde 13 Haaland is back on top at 182k against Leeds, ahead of Palmer at 128k. Owning Haaland and Isak covers all three rounds. More on the method in our guide to picking a captain.
Who to sell before Runde 11
Joao Pedro (8.5m, CHE) is the clearest sale, and the round to do it is this one. 16.1% of managers own him, the model projects him for only 44 minutes in Runde 11 (73k), and his program after it is [A]NFO → [H]CRY at 37k and 64k. The why-now is the swap: at the same 8.5m, Cole Palmer projects 313k over the next three rounds against Joao Pedro's 174k, and the Palmer case peaks in Runde 13.
Rayan Cherki (6.5m, MCI) is the other premium sale. 14.8% own him, but the model has him at 30 minutes against Fulham, in Manchester City's best fixture, and he projects 54k → 24k → 57k on [H]FUL → [A]ARS → [H]LEE. If the best fixture of the round does not get him minutes, nothing in the run behind it will, and his money buys Kudus or Ødegaard now.
Arsenal's rotation defenders are a quieter sale. Ezri Konsa (4.2m, 14.0% owned), Ben White (3.7m, 13.8%) and Myles Lewis-Skelly (3.9m, 10.4%) project 47k, 40k and 34k this round, because the model does not have them as nailed starters. Arsenal's [A]NEW → [H]MCI → [A]BRE is the best defensive run in the game, and the clean-sheet points go to the players who start, so the time to switch to Gabriel or Raya is before that run begins.
The Brentford pair are a sale you can wait a round on. Thiago Rodrigues (5.5m, BRE) projects 110k against Everton, he is Brentford's penalty taker and has 0.71 expected goal involvements per 90, and Kevin Schade (3.7m, BRE) projects 80k. [H]EVE is a good fixture and there is no reason to sell into it. But Brentford's run goes [A]MUN → [H]ARS → [H]MCI behind it, Thiago drops to 74k and then 40k, and Schade to 58k and 29k. With 27.8% and 31.2% ownership, these are the most-owned players whose program collapses: keep them for Runde 11 and plan the sale for Runde 12.
Runde 11 transfer summary
Out: Joao Pedro, Cherki and any rotation Arsenal defender. In: Palmer for Joao Pedro, Gabriel or Raya for the Arsenal run, and Kudus or a Brighton player for the cheaper slots. Keep Haaland, Isak, De Cuyper, Rogers and the Brentford pair for one more round. Build a full squad from these picks on the optimal teams for Premier Manager, check who starts on the predicted lineups, and see how the bookmakers price each match on the market probabilities page.
Last round's picks are in the Premier Manager Runde 10 preview, every round is collected in the Premier Manager preview hub, and the general approach to holdet's manager games is in our managerspil strategy guide.
FAQ
Who should I captain in Premier Manager Runde 11?
Erling Haaland. He projects 197k against Fulham, 80k more than anyone else, and Manchester City have the best win probability of the round at 68%. Mohammed Kudus (117k) and Alexander Isak (115k) are the alternatives, and Isak is the better premium captain in Runde 12, when Haaland plays at Arsenal.
Should I sell Joao Pedro before Premier Manager Runde 11?
Yes. The model has him at 44 minutes in Runde 11 and 174k over the next three rounds, while Cole Palmer at the same 8.5m projects 313k over the same three rounds on [H]LEE → [A]NFO → [H]CRY.
Who are the best budget buys for Premier Manager Runde 11?
Charalampos Kostoulas (3.4m, BHA) is the best value in the game at 29.6k per million. Maxim De Cuyper (3.7m) and Diego Gomez (3.7m) from Brighton, and Pedro Porro (3.6m) and Andrew Robertson (3.4m) from Tottenham, are the best cheap defenders and midfielders.
What are the best differentials for Premier Manager Runde 11?
Mohammed Kudus (2.6% owned) projects 117k against Ipswich, the most of any midfielder. Luka Vuskovic (3.9%) projects 84k at Hull, Bart Verbruggen (2.5%) has the best clean-sheet chance of the round, and Mathys Tel (2.8%) is a cheap one-round forward.
Should I buy Bruno Fernandes for Premier Manager Runde 11?
Not yet. He projects 62k at Liverpool this round, but 96k against Brentford in Runde 12 and 131k against Coventry in Runde 14, so he is a buy from Runde 12. Bryan Mbeumo has the same shape.
This preview was written by TheFantasyTool AI.