Nations Manager Runde 5: best buys and differentials
Nations Manager Runde 5 preview: best buys, captain picks and who to sell
Nations Manager Runde 5 kicks off on 12 November with Turkiye v Belgium, and it is the second-to-last transfer window of the game: Runde 6 closes the schedule a few days later. That changes the maths. Every buy you make now is a buy for exactly two fixtures, so the question is not who scores most in Runde 5 but whose two-round program is worth the fee. All 16 nations play once in each round, so there are no blanks to plan around. The round is still some weeks away, so expect the projections to move before the deadline.
The short version: Erling Haaland (10.0m, NOR) is the captain for both rounds, Portugal, England and Norway carry the strongest two-round programs, and the real edge sits in Greece's back-loaded run and a handful of cheap Turkish and Czech picks. Last round's thinking is in our Nations Manager Runde 4 preview, and every number below is live on the Nations Manager player picks page.
Runde 5 and Runde 6 programs: whose last two rounds are worth owning
With only two rounds left, a program is two fixtures long, so the table ranks teams on their combined Runde 5 and Runde 6 expected goals and expected clean sheets (a count out of two games, not a percentage). The Runde 5 columns show where the first of the two fixtures lands.
Portugal top the attacking list at 3.25 expected goals from [H]DEN → [A]WAL: the home game against Denmark is the best attacking fixture of the round (1.86 expected goals, 54% win probability) and Wales away is still a fair second fixture. England ([H]CRO → [A]ESP) and Norway ([H]WAL → [A]DEN) are the defensive picks, at 0.63 and 0.64 expected clean sheets. Greece are the outlier: an ordinary trip to the Netherlands first, then Serbia at home with a 45% clean-sheet chance, the best of either round, for a game-high 0.69 expected clean sheets.
Two programs lean hard to one side. Turkiye ([H]BEL → [A]FRA) have one of the best Runde 5 fixtures at 58% win probability, then face France away, so Turkish picks are a front-loaded play. Germany ([A]SER → [H]NED) are the reverse: Serbia away is middling, while the home game against the Netherlands is worth 1.86 expected goals, the biggest attacking number in Runde 6. Kickoff times are on the Nations Manager schedule.
| Team | Runde 5 fixture | Win probability | Expected goals | Clean sheet | Program (R5 → R6) | 2-round xG | 2-round CS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| England | [H]CRO | 59% | 1.82 | 42% | [H]CRO → [A]ESP | 3.16 | 0.63 |
| Portugal | [H]DEN | 54% | 1.86 | 33% | [H]DEN → [A]WAL | 3.25 | 0.54 |
| Norway | [H]WAL | 54% | 1.77 | 36% | [H]WAL → [A]DEN | 3.09 | 0.64 |
| Turkiye | [H]BEL | 58% | 1.84 | 39% | [H]BEL → [A]FRA | 3.09 | 0.60 |
| Germany | [A]SER | 34% | 1.31 | 24% | [A]SER → [H]NED | 3.17 | 0.49 |
| Italy | [H]FRA | 45% | 1.63 | 28% | [H]FRA → [A]BEL | 2.96 | 0.54 |
| Greece | [A]NED | 31% | 1.24 | 24% | [A]NED → [H]SER | 2.80 | 0.69 |
| Spain | [A]CZE | 35% | 1.45 | 21% | [A]CZE → [H]ENG | 3.01 | 0.47 |
| France | [A]ITA | 29% | 1.27 | 20% | [A]ITA → [H]TUR | 2.85 | 0.48 |
| Netherlands | [H]GRE | 41% | 1.44 | 29% | [H]GRE → [A]GER | 2.85 | 0.45 |
| Czechia | [H]ESP | 39% | 1.55 | 24% | [H]ESP → [A]CRO | 2.73 | 0.47 |
| Wales | [A]NOR | 21% | 1.02 | 17% | [A]NOR → [H]POR | 2.60 | 0.42 |
| Denmark | [A]POR | 21% | 1.10 | 16% | [A]POR → [H]NOR | 2.38 | 0.42 |
| Croatia | [A]ENG | 17% | 0.87 | 16% | [A]ENG → [H]CZE | 2.31 | 0.47 |
| Belgium | [A]TUR | 18% | 0.93 | 16% | [A]TUR → [H]ITA | 2.29 | 0.42 |
| Serbia | [H]GER | 38% | 1.41 | 27% | [H]GER → [A]GRE | 2.21 | 0.48 |
Best goalkeepers for Nations Manager Runde 5
Jordan Pickford (4.68m, ENG) has the highest Runde 5 projection of any keeper at 76k, backed by England's 42% clean-sheet chance at home to Croatia. His program is [H]CRO → [A]ESP, and the Spain trip drops him to 46k: 76k → 46k, 122k over the last two rounds.
If you are buying one keeper and keeping him, Konstantinos Tzolakis (3.34m, GRE) is the better hold. Greece's [A]NED → [H]SER gives him 46k → 72k, 118k over the last two rounds. That is within 4k of Pickford's two-round total for 1.34m less, and his 72k in Runde 6 is the best keeper score of that round. This round and the next disagree on the order here; for a buy-and-hold, take Tzolakis.
The cheap option is Ugurcan Cakir (2.95m, TUR): 73k at home to Belgium is the second-best keeper score of the round, and at 0.5% ownership almost nobody has him. His program, [H]BEL → [A]FRA, makes him a one-round buy, but a fee of about 30k is nothing to swap him out again before Runde 6. For the lowest price, Antonin Kinsky (2.49m, CZE) gives a flat 52k → 46k, 98k over the last two rounds on [H]ESP → [A]CRO.
Best defenders for Runde 5: premium, value and hidden gems
Nico O'Reilly (4.02m, ENG) is the top-scoring defender of Runde 5 at 71k, with England's [H]CRO → [A]ESP giving him 71k → 43k, 114k over the last two rounds. At 1.8% ownership he is also a differential. Nuno Mendes (5.38m, POR) is the premium alternative, on Portugal's [H]DEN → [A]WAL for 68k → 43k, 111k over the last two rounds. The Denmark home game is the reason to own him; Wales away is a fair second fixture rather than a reason to sell.
For two-round value, Konstantinos Mavropanos (3.25m, GRE) is the pick few managers are looking at: 36k → 66k, 102k over the last two rounds, at 1.7% ownership. The program ([A]NED → [H]SER) is back-loaded, and his 66k in Runde 6 is the best defender score of that round. Buy him now so you are not paying a second fee to get him in for the Serbia game.
The cheapest defender worth a slot is Stepan Chaloupek (1.93m, CZE): 48k → 39k, 87k over the last two rounds on [H]ESP → [A]CRO, about 45k per million across the two rounds. Merih Demiral (2.41m, TUR) is the one-rounder: 62k at home to Belgium, then 29k in France ([H]BEL → [A]FRA). With a fee around 24k, buying him for Runde 5 alone and selling again before Runde 6 is a perfectly sensible move.
Best midfielders for Runde 5
Bruno Fernandes (7.77m, POR) leads all midfielders at 104k and is the only one with a two-round total above 170k: 104k → 73k, 176k over the last two rounds on [H]DEN → [A]WAL. He is owned by only 5.1%, which makes him the premium differential of the round. Jude Bellingham (7.04m, ENG) is the safer, more-owned option on [H]CRO → [A]ESP, with 83k → 63k, 146k over the last two rounds.
Arda Güler (3.45m, TUR) is the best midfield value this round: 97k at home to Belgium is about 28k per million. His program ([H]BEL → [A]FRA) drops him to 55k in Runde 6, but even that second number is respectable at his price, so he is a buy you can keep rather than a pure one-rounder.
Two hidden gems turn on the Runde 6 fixture. Konstantinos Karetsas (3.14m, GRE) goes 55k → 82k, 137k over the last two rounds on [A]NED → [H]SER, and Brennan Johnson (2.97m, WAL) goes 48k → 86k, 134k over the last two rounds on [A]NOR → [H]POR. Both are owned by around 1% of managers. Johnson's trip to Norway is a weak first fixture, which is why you can wait a round on him and bring him in for the Portugal game alone. At the budget end, Adam Karabec (2.63m, CZE) gives 72k → 46k, 119k over the last two rounds on [H]ESP → [A]CRO.
Best forwards for Runde 5
Erling Haaland (10.0m, NOR) is the outstanding forward of the last two rounds: 161k → 113k, 273k over the last two rounds, on Norway's [H]WAL → [A]DEN. He is already owned by 43.5% of managers, so owning him protects rank rather than gaining it. The spots after Haaland are where Runde 5 is won.
Francesco Pio Esposito (4.78m, ITA) is the best of those, with 101k → 68k, 169k over the last two rounds on Italy's [H]FRA → [A]BEL at 3.6% ownership. Vangelis Pavlidis (3.7m, GRE) is the back-loaded alternative: 59k → 88k, 147k over the last two rounds on [A]NED → [H]SER. Pair him with Tzolakis or Mavropanos and you own the same Serbia game twice, once for the goals and once for the clean sheet.
Among the cheap forwards, Baris Alper Yilmaz (3.05m, TUR) (98k → 54k, 153k over the last two rounds on [H]BEL → [A]FRA) is the sharpest Runde 5 pick, and Adam Hlozek (2.1m, CZE) (70k → 54k, 125k over the last two rounds on [H]ESP → [A]CRO) is the flatter hold. Mind the 4-per-nation limit if you stack Turkiye across positions.
Nations Manager Runde 5 captain picks
Erling Haaland (10.0m, NOR) is the captain, and it is not close: 161k at home to Wales is 28k clear of anyone else, on a program of [H]WAL → [A]DEN. Harry Kane (9.23m, ENG) (132k, [H]CRO) is the alternative if you do not own Haaland, and Bruno Fernandes (7.77m, POR) (104k, [H]DEN) is the differential armband. Haaland also tops Runde 6 at 113k, ahead of Lamine Yamal (9.72m, ESP) (100k) and Ousmane Dembélé (6.65m, FRA) (98k), so he is the captaincy plan for both remaining rounds.
Who to sell before Runde 5
Patrick Dorgu (3.01m, DEN) is the clearest sale. 19.6% of managers own him, and he projects no minutes in either Runde 5 or Runde 6. Why now: there is no later round to wait for. Every round he stays in the side is an empty slot, and moving him costs about 30k. Noa Lang (3.54m, NED) is the same case at 15.1% ownership: 4k → 3k, 7k over the last two rounds, because he is expected to play only around ten minutes a game. The Netherlands' [H]GRE → [A]GER is a decent program; it just does not reach him.
Harry Kane (9.23m, ENG) is a timing call, not a sell. [H]CRO is an excellent fixture and his 132k is the second-best score of the round, so keep him for Runde 5. The swap belongs before Runde 6, when [A]ESP drops him to 74k; you can wait a round on this one. The same logic runs in reverse for Michael Olise (8.54m, FRA) (50k → 84k, 134k over the last two rounds): Italy away is a fair fixture, but the home game against Turkiye is the one to buy him for, so wait a round rather than pay his fee now.
For the full squad view, the Nations Manager optimal teams solver builds the best side for Runde 5 or for both rounds together, and the Nations Manager predicted lineups show who is expected to start. The bookmaker odds behind the fixture numbers are on the Nations Manager market probabilities page, and every round preview sits in the Nations Manager preview hub.
FAQ
Who should I captain in Nations Manager Runde 5?
Erling Haaland. He projects 161k at home to Wales, the highest score in the game by 28k, with Harry Kane (132k) and Bruno Fernandes (104k) the alternatives. Haaland also tops Runde 6 at 113k.
Which teams have the best fixtures for Nations Manager Runde 5 and 6?
Portugal lead with 3.25 expected goals over [H]DEN → [A]WAL, followed by England and Norway, while Greece have the most expected clean sheets (0.69) thanks to Serbia at home in Runde 6.
Best differentials for Nations Manager Runde 5?
Bruno Fernandes (5.1% owned, 104k), Konstantinos Mavropanos (102k over the last two rounds) and Francesco Pio Esposito (101k at home to France) are the strongest low-ownership picks.
Should I sell Patrick Dorgu before Nations Manager Runde 5?
Yes. Patrick Dorgu projects no minutes in Runde 5 or Runde 6, and with only two rounds left there is no later fixture to wait for.
Should I sell Harry Kane before Runde 5?
Not yet. Kane projects 132k at home to Croatia in Runde 5; the time to move him is before Runde 6, when the trip to Spain drops him to 74k.
This preview was written by TheFantasyTool AI.