Nations Manager Runde 4: captain picks and best buys
Nations Manager Runde 4 preview: best buys, captain picks and differentials
Nations Manager Runde 4 is the last round before the international break, and that changes what a transfer means. The Runde 4 matches run from 4 to 6 October. Runde 5 and Runde 6 follow in November (12 to 17 November) and close the game. So every move you make before Sunday's deadline is either a hold for the rest of the game or a one-round rental you unwind before Runde 5. This preview sorts the players into those two groups, with the full three-round program behind every pick. All 16 nations play once in each of the three remaining rounds, so there are no blanks to plan around.
The live numbers behind everything here are on our Nations Manager player picks page, and last round's analysis is in the Nations Manager Runde 3 preview.
Runde 4 to 6 programs: whose next three rounds are worth owning
The Netherlands have the best three-round attack in the game at 5.53 expected goals, but nearly half of it (2.67) sits in Runde 4: [H]SER → [H]GRE → [A]GER. Serbia at home is the single best fixture of the window, with a 77% win probability, 2.67 expected goals and a 46% clean-sheet chance. Greece at home is decent; Germany away is not. That is the "one extremely good fixture" shape: Dutch players are buys for this round, and most of them are sells again before Runde 5.
England have the most durable program: [H]CZE → [H]CRO → [A]ESP. Two home games with win probabilities of 57% and 56% give them 1.00 expected clean sheets over three rounds, the most of any team. Portugal ([H]NOR → [H]DEN → [A]WAL, 5.13 xG) and France ([H]BEL → [A]ITA → [H]TUR, 5.01 xG) are the other two attacks worth holding through November. At the bottom, Serbia ([A]NED → [H]GER → [A]GRE), Belgium ([A]FRA → [A]TUR → [H]ITA) and Czechia ([A]ENG → [H]ESP → [A]CRO) are the programs to avoid.
Check exact kick-off times on the Nations Manager schedule and the bookmaker view on the Nations Manager market probabilities page.
| Team | Runde 4 fixture | Win probability | Expected goals | Clean sheet | Program (Runde 4-6) | 3-round xG | 3-round CS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NED | [H]SER | 77% | 2.67 | 46% | [H]SER → [H]GRE → [A]GER | 5.53 | 0.90 |
| POR | [H]NOR | 51% | 1.89 | 29% | [H]NOR → [H]DEN → [A]WAL | 5.13 | 0.83 |
| FRA | [H]BEL | 61% | 2.14 | 34% | [H]BEL → [A]ITA → [H]TUR | 5.01 | 0.82 |
| GER | [A]GRE | 47% | 1.66 | 29% | [A]GRE → [A]SER → [H]NED | 4.96 | 0.79 |
| ENG | [H]CZE | 57% | 1.77 | 40% | [H]CZE → [H]CRO → [A]ESP | 4.82 | 1.00 |
| ESP | [A]CRO | 36% | 1.47 | 22% | [A]CRO → [A]CZE → [H]ENG | 4.53 | 0.72 |
| ITA | [H]TUR | 42% | 1.49 | 29% | [H]TUR → [H]FRA → [A]BEL | 4.46 | 0.82 |
| TUR | [A]ITA | 30% | 1.23 | 22% | [A]ITA → [H]BEL → [A]FRA | 4.33 | 0.82 |
| NOR | [A]POR | 24% | 1.25 | 15% | [A]POR → [H]WAL → [A]DEN | 4.31 | 0.79 |
| DEN | [A]WAL | 53% | 1.76 | 34% | [A]WAL → [A]POR → [H]NOR | 4.14 | 0.77 |
| GRE | [H]GER | 27% | 1.23 | 19% | [H]GER → [A]NED → [H]SER | 4.00 | 0.87 |
| CRO | [H]ESP | 38% | 1.52 | 23% | [H]ESP → [A]ENG → [H]CZE | 3.98 | 0.73 |
| WAL | [H]DEN | 22% | 1.06 | 17% | [H]DEN → [A]NOR → [H]POR | 3.66 | 0.60 |
| CZE | [A]ENG | 18% | 0.91 | 17% | [A]ENG → [H]ESP → [A]CRO | 3.54 | 0.62 |
| BEL | [A]FRA | 17% | 1.07 | 12% | [A]FRA → [A]TUR → [H]ITA | 3.41 | 0.54 |
| SER | [A]NED | 8% | 0.78 | 7% | [A]NED → [H]GER → [A]GRE | 2.97 | 0.54 |
The table is sorted by 3-round xG. 3-round CS is the expected number of clean sheets across the three games, not a percentage.
Goalkeepers for Runde 4
Jordan Pickford (4.5m, ENG) is the keeper to buy and keep. England's [H]CZE → [H]CRO → [A]ESP gives him 73k → 72k → 45k, 190k over the three rounds, and only 4.4% of managers own him. The Spain away game is the one to plan around, but two home fixtures, starting with a 40% clean-sheet chance against Czechia, make up for it.
Bart Verbruggen (4.6m, NED) is the higher score this round at 94k, and narrowly the higher three-round total (195k). But his program is front-loaded ([H]SER → [H]GRE → [A]GER, 94k → 59k → 42k), while Pickford's is flat. Over Runde 5 and 6 Pickford is ahead, 117k to 101k. If you buy one keeper and keep him, buy Pickford. If you rotate, Verbruggen is the Runde 4 pick.
The cheap option is Altay Bayindir (2.5m, TUR). Turkiye's [A]ITA → [H]BEL → [A]FRA gives him 45k → 72k → 44k for 161k, and his best round is the home game against Belgium in Runde 5. Diogo Costa (4.8m, 18.7% owned) is a fine hold on [H]NOR → [H]DEN → [A]WAL (180k), so there is no reason to sell him.
Defenders for Runde 4
Denzel Dumfries (4.6m, NED) is the top defender in the game this round at 127k, and the top defender over three rounds as well (228k). But the trajectory, 127k → 60k → 40k on [H]SER → [H]GRE → [A]GER, says what kind of buy this is: one round of Serbia at home, then a fall-off. Buy him for Runde 4 and expect to sell before Runde 5. The 46k fee is small against a 127k projection.
Jan Paul van Hecke (3.1m, NED) is the cheaper way into the same clean sheet: 87k at 28.5k per million, the best value of any defender this round. His program ([H]SER → [H]GRE → [A]GER, 87k → 27k → 14k) makes him a pure one-rounder, and at a 31k fee that is fine. With four players allowed per nation, Verbruggen plus two Dutch defenders plus one Dutch attacker is the full stack.
For defenders you can hold into November, go English. Trent Alexander-Arnold (4.7m, ENG) projects 68k → 60k → 32k for 160k, and Marc Guehi (4.6m, ENG) 63k → 62k → 32k for 156k, both on [H]CZE → [H]CRO → [A]ESP. Each is owned by under 1% of managers. Nuno Mendes (5.3m, POR) is the Portuguese version on [H]NOR → [H]DEN → [A]WAL: 65k → 65k → 38k, 168k over three rounds.
This is where the round ranking and the horizon ranking disagree. Virgil van Dijk out-scores all three this round (95k), but drops to 48k and 29k. Alexander-Arnold, Guehi and Mendes each hold 60k or more in Runde 5. If you are making one defensive transfer and keeping it, buy English or Portuguese.
Budget pick: Oliver Provstgaard (2.6m, DEN) at 58k for Denmark's [A]WAL → [A]POR → [H]NOR. Wales away is the one good fixture (53% win probability). After it he drops to 19k away in Portugal, so he is a one-round buy at a 26k fee.
Midfielders for Runde 4
Michael Olise (8.4m, FRA) is the best midfielder over the three rounds at 323k (154k → 80k → 89k), and he also scores 154k this round, on France's [H]BEL → [A]ITA → [H]TUR. He has produced 0.94 expected goal involvements per 90 over his last 10 appearances for club and country, and France averaged 2.08 xG per game across their last ten internationals in our data. Already owned by 21.4%, he is a hold, and a buy if you do not have him.
Bruno Fernandes (7.7m, POR) is the premium with the flattest program: 102k → 97k → 63k on [H]NOR → [H]DEN → [A]WAL, 262k in total. He is owned by only 4.3%, so he is the premium differential in midfield and a buy-and-hold for the rest of the game. Jude Bellingham (6.6m, ENG) is similar at 94k → 92k → 61k on [H]CZE → [H]CRO → [A]ESP.
Two Dutch midfielders fit the Serbia round. Tijjani Reijnders (5.3m, NED) projects 124k, the second-best midfield score of the round, at 1.1% ownership. Joey Veerman (3.2m, NED) gives 87k at 27.5k per million. Both fall away after it (124k → 52k → 39k and 87k → 35k → 23k on [H]SER → [H]GRE → [A]GER), so treat them as Runde 4 rentals.
Désiré Doué (5.1m, FRA) is the middle-priced hold: 108k → 57k → 81k on [H]BEL → [A]ITA → [H]TUR, 245k over three rounds. Arda Güler (3.5m, TUR) rises to 96k for the Turkiye home game against Belgium. His program is [A]ITA → [H]BEL → [A]FRA (60k → 96k → 56k), so he is a buy for the November rounds rather than for Runde 4 itself, and you can wait a round on him.
Budget pick: Mikkel Damsgaard (3.4m, DEN) at 95k for a 34k fee (28.0k per million). Denmark's [A]WAL → [A]POR → [H]NOR gives 95k → 42k → 56k, so he is strongest now. That is fine at his price.
Forwards for Runde 4
Erling Haaland (10.0m, NOR) is the most important hold in the game. Norway's [A]POR → [H]WAL → [A]DEN gives him 105k → 170k → 121k: 396k, the highest three-round total of any player. He has 12 goals and 0.81 xG per 90 across his last 10 appearances. Portugal away makes Runde 4 his weakest round, and that is exactly why you should not sell him now: selling into his weakest round and buying back for Wales in November costs two fees of about 100k each.
Cristiano Ronaldo (7.6m, POR) is the premium most managers are missing. Owned by only 4.4%, he projects 124k → 143k → 96k for 364k on [H]NOR → [H]DEN → [A]WAL, the second-highest total in the game, and he is on penalties for Portugal. He is a buy now: the program is good all the way through, and his best round, Denmark at home in Runde 5, comes straight after the break.
Harry Kane (8.8m, ENG) is England's penalty taker and has 9 goals in his last 10 appearances. He projects 136k → 133k → 73k for 342k on [H]CZE → [H]CRO → [A]ESP. The two home games carry the case, so he is a hold; Spain away in Runde 6 is the one weak spot.
Mexx Meerdink (2.9m, NED) is the top-scoring player of the round at 180k. That is 62.0k per million, by far the best value in the game, and he has 0.73 xG per 90 over his last 10 appearances. He is already owned by 29.1%, so owning him protects your rank rather than separating you. His trajectory (180k → 65k → 54k on [H]SER → [H]GRE → [A]GER) makes him a one-round buy: own him for Serbia, then plan the sale before Runde 5. Crysencio Summerville (4.1m, NED) is the less-owned route into the same game, at 149k and 6.2% ownership.
Hidden gems and differentials for Runde 4
Kerem Akturkoglu (3.0m, TUR) is the standout cheap forward. He is owned by 0.2%, and Turkiye's [A]ITA → [H]BEL → [A]FRA gives him 73k → 101k → 58k, 232k over three rounds. Among forwards priced 3.5m or less, only Meerdink projects more over the window. Summerville's 264k is higher, but most of it comes from one round; over Runde 5 and 6 Akturkoglu leads 159k to 114k at three-quarters of the price. Italy away is a tricky start, but buying now means one fee for three rounds instead of a move now and another in November.
The other differentials are Ronaldo (4.4%) and Bruno Fernandes (4.3%) among the premiums, Alexander-Arnold and Guehi in defence, and Reijnders (1.1%) for this round only. You can test every combination in the optimal teams for Nations Manager, which solves the best squad live for any range of rounds.
| Player | Team | Price | Owned | Runde 4 → 5 → 6 | 3-round total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erling Haaland | NOR | 10.0m | 49.6% | 105k → 170k → 121k | 396k |
| Cristiano Ronaldo | POR | 7.6m | 4.4% | 124k → 143k → 96k | 364k |
| Harry Kane | ENG | 8.8m | 21.1% | 136k → 133k → 73k | 342k |
| Michael Olise | FRA | 8.4m | 21.4% | 154k → 80k → 89k | 323k |
| Mexx Meerdink | NED | 2.9m | 29.1% | 180k → 65k → 54k | 299k |
| Denzel Dumfries | NED | 4.6m | 13.0% | 127k → 60k → 40k | 228k |
| Jordan Pickford | ENG | 4.5m | 4.4% | 73k → 72k → 45k | 190k |
| Kerem Akturkoglu | TUR | 3.0m | 0.2% | 73k → 101k → 58k | 232k |
| Bruno Fernandes | POR | 7.7m | 4.3% | 102k → 97k → 63k | 262k |
| Trent Alexander-Arnold | ENG | 4.7m | 0.5% | 68k → 60k → 32k | 160k |
Captain picks for Runde 4
Mexx Meerdink (2.9m, NED) is the captain at 180k, or 360k with the double. Serbia at home is the best fixture of the round, and the Netherlands are the team most likely to score. Behind it his program ([H]SER → [H]GRE → [A]GER) drops him to 65k, so the armband on him is a one-round call.
The alternatives are Michael Olise (8.4m, FRA) at 154k at home to Belgium (program [H]BEL → [A]ITA → [H]TUR), and Crysencio Summerville (4.1m, NED) at 149k on the Dutch [H]SER → [H]GRE → [A]GER. Ousmane Dembélé (143k) and Kane (136k) complete the top group. Haaland (105k) is not the Runde 4 captain.
Captaincy is also a reason to hold Haaland. He is the top captain option in Runde 5 (170k at home to Wales) and again in Runde 6 (121k away in Denmark). Ronaldo is the next best in Runde 5 (143k). Owning both covers the captaincy for the rest of the game.
Who to sell before Runde 4
Patrick Dorgu (3.0m, DEN) is the clearest sale. Owned by 20.9%, he has no projected minutes in Denmark's Runde 4 lineup, and he projects nothing for any of the three remaining rounds on [A]WAL → [A]POR → [H]NOR. Why now: there is no later round in which he recovers, and the fee is only 30k. Mikkel Damsgaard or Oliver Provstgaard use the same money far better this round.
Derry Scherhant (3.1m, GER) (16.7% owned) is in the same position. He has no projected minutes for Germany and projects -5k in each of Runde 4, 5 and 6 on [A]GRE → [A]SER → [H]NED. Why now: waiting gains nothing, because no round in the window is better for him than this one.
Oscar Bobb (3.3m, NOR) is the timing sell. Owned by 29.6%, he projects 34k → 61k → 36k on [A]POR → [H]WAL → [A]DEN. Portugal away is a hard fixture, and even his best round, Wales at home, is lower than Damsgaard's Runde 4 alone. Why now: he costs about the same as Damsgaard (193k over three rounds) or Akturkoglu (232k), and the swap fee is only 33k.
Kylian Mbappé (10.7m, FRA) (13.4% owned) is out of Runde 4, with a return date of 17 October. France's program from here is [H]BEL → [A]ITA → [H]TUR, and he misses the first of those. Why now: he scores nothing this round and is the most expensive player in the game, so that money works harder elsewhere for Runde 4. Before Runde 5, check the predicted lineups for Nations Manager to see whether he is back in the squad.
Runde 4 transfer summary: in for the round go Dutch players (Meerdink, Dumfries, van Hecke, Reijnders or Veerman); in to hold go Ronaldo, Pickford and an English defender. Out go Dorgu, Scherhant and Bobb. Keep Haaland. More round-by-round analysis lives in the Nations Manager preview hub, and the rules and scoring are explained in our fantasy guides.
FAQ
Who should I captain in Nations Manager Runde 4?
Mexx Meerdink is the top captain pick at 180k projected (360k with the double) at home to Serbia. Michael Olise (154k) and Crysencio Summerville (149k) are the alternatives. Erling Haaland (105k) is the better captain in Runde 5 and Runde 6, not this round.
Best differentials for Nations Manager Runde 4?
Cristiano Ronaldo (4.4% owned, 364k over Runde 4 to 6) is the premium differential. Kerem Akturkoglu (0.2% owned, 232k) is the cheap one. Tijjani Reijnders (1.1% owned, 124k) is a Runde 4-only differential for the Serbia game.
Should I sell Erling Haaland before Nations Manager Runde 4?
No. Haaland has the highest three-round total in the game (105k → 170k → 121k, 396k). Runde 4 away in Portugal is his weakest round, and selling now to buy back for Runde 5 would cost two fees for one weaker round.
Which cheap defenders are best for Nations Manager Runde 4?
Jan Paul van Hecke (3.1m, 87k) is the best-value defender for Runde 4, as a one-round buy. Oliver Provstgaard (2.6m, 58k) is the cheapest decent option. For a defender to hold into November, Trent Alexander-Arnold and Marc Guehi have England's two home games.
Should I sell Patrick Dorgu in Nations Manager?
Yes. Patrick Dorgu has no projected minutes in Denmark's Runde 4 lineup and projects nothing for Runde 5 or 6, while 20.9% of managers still own him. Selling costs a 30k fee.
This preview was written by TheFantasyTool AI.