Nations Manager Runde 3: captain picks and who to sell
Nations Manager Runde 3 preview: best buys, differentials and the kaptajn pick
The Nations Manager Runde 3 deadline is tonight, Thursday 1 October, at the 20:45 kick-offs. Runde 3 runs from 1 to 3 October and Runde 4 follows straight after, from 4 to 6 October. Then the Nations League stops until Runde 5 on 12 November. So a transfer made today has to pay off over two October rounds and still make sense in November, and every pick below is judged on that program rather than on tonight alone. All sixteen nations play once in each of Runde 3, 4 and 5, so there are no blanks to plan around. This preview covers who to buy, who to captain, the hidden gems and who to sell.
Two things have moved since the start of the week. Germany's predicted eleven for Serbia now has Jonathan Burkardt, Serge Gnabry, Karim Adeyemi and Said El Mala all starting, which puts six Germans among the top fifteen projections of the round. And Portugal's predicted eleven no longer has Cristiano Ronaldo in it: Goncalo Ramos leads the line in Denmark instead. Germany, Portugal, the Netherlands and Norway all kick off at the deadline, so their confirmed lineups land about an hour before it. Check the Nations Manager predicted lineups before you lock in, and see every player's projection on the Nations Manager player picks page. Our Nations Manager Runde 2 preview covered the start of the October window.
The programs: whose Runde 3 to 5 is worth owning
Spain have the most expected goals of any nation over the next three rounds, 6.21 from [H]CZE → [A]CRO → [A]CZE, but more than half of it comes tonight. Czechia at home is the best fixture of the window: a 90% win probability, 3.32 expected goals and a 63% clean-sheet chance. After that Spain are only 35% favourites in both Croatia and Czechia. That is one extremely good fixture, which is enough for a one-round buy in defence, and the sections below say which Spanish attackers are worth keeping beyond it.
The Netherlands have the program that holds. [A]GRE → [H]SER → [H]GRE adds up to 5.76 expected goals and 1.04 expected clean sheets, and the Serbia home game in Runde 4 is the best fixture of that round (76% win probability, 2.59 expected goals). One very good fixture plus two decent ones is a clean buy, and the Dutch are the core of this preview. England ([A]CRO → [H]CZE → [H]CRO) have the best defensive program at 1.12 expected clean sheets: 51% to win in Croatia this round, then two home games at 56%. No weak fixture in three makes them the holds.
Germany ([H]SER → [A]GRE → [A]SER) have Spain's front-loaded shape: 81% to beat Serbia and 2.96 expected goals tonight, then 47% in Greece. France ([H]ITA → [H]BEL → [A]ITA) have two good home games in October at 67% and 56%, with the Italy away game held back until November. Portugal's [A]DEN → [H]NOR → [H]DEN rises after this round, with two home games at 51% and 54%. Norway ([A]WAL → [A]POR → [H]WAL) are 66% favourites in Wales but only 25% in Portugal, so Runde 4 is the week to plan around with them. At the bottom, Czechia (2.89 expected goals), Serbia (2.95), Wales (3.06), Croatia (3.56) and Greece (3.68) have the five weakest attacking programs, and Czechia are 2% to win in Spain tonight.
| Team | Runde 3 | Win probability | Expected goals | Clean sheet | Program | 3-round xG | 3-round CS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ESP | [H]CZE | 90% | 3.32 | 63% | [H]CZE → [A]CRO → [A]CZE | 6.21 | 1.07 |
| GER | [H]SER | 81% | 2.96 | 47% | [H]SER → [A]GRE → [A]SER | 5.92 | 1.00 |
| NED | [A]GRE | 48% | 1.74 | 28% | [A]GRE → [H]SER → [H]GRE | 5.76 | 1.04 |
| FRA | [H]ITA | 67% | 2.36 | 36% | [H]ITA → [H]BEL → [A]ITA | 5.56 | 0.91 |
| POR | [A]DEN | 49% | 1.75 | 30% | [A]DEN → [H]NOR → [H]DEN | 5.51 | 0.91 |
| NOR | [A]WAL | 66% | 2.26 | 39% | [A]WAL → [A]POR → [H]WAL | 5.26 | 0.89 |
| ENG | [A]CRO | 51% | 1.76 | 32% | [A]CRO → [H]CZE → [H]CRO | 5.22 | 1.12 |
| BEL | [H]TUR | 63% | 2.28 | 32% | [H]TUR → [A]FRA → [A]TUR | 4.29 | 0.63 |
| TUR | [A]BEL | 17% | 1.13 | 10% | [A]BEL → [A]ITA → [H]BEL | 4.18 | 0.72 |
| ITA | [A]FRA | 14% | 1.02 | 9% | [A]FRA → [H]TUR → [H]FRA | 4.11 | 0.67 |
| DEN | [H]POR | 26% | 1.21 | 18% | [H]POR → [A]WAL → [A]POR | 4.08 | 0.67 |
| GRE | [H]NED | 27% | 1.26 | 18% | [H]NED → [H]GER → [A]NED | 3.68 | 0.60 |
| CRO | [H]ENG | 24% | 1.13 | 17% | [H]ENG → [H]ESP → [A]ENG | 3.56 | 0.59 |
| WAL | [H]NOR | 14% | 0.95 | 10% | [H]NOR → [H]DEN → [A]NOR | 3.06 | 0.45 |
| SER | [A]GER | 6% | 0.76 | 5% | [A]GER → [A]NED → [H]GER | 2.95 | 0.40 |
| CZE | [A]ESP | 2% | 0.46 | 4% | [A]ESP → [A]ENG → [H]ESP | 2.89 | 0.45 |
Kick-off times are on the Nations Manager schedule, and the bookmaker lines behind these numbers are on the Nations Manager market probabilities page.
Goalkeepers for Nations Manager Runde 3
Unai Simon (5.7m, ESP) is the keeper for Runde 3. He projects 113k against Czechia, the most of any goalkeeper by 16k, on a 63% clean-sheet chance. His program is [H]CZE → [A]CRO → [A]CZE and he drops to 49k in both later games (113k → 49k → 49k), which still adds up to 211k, level with the best keeper over the window. The front-loaded shape is the reason to buy him now rather than next round.
This is where the round and the window disagree. Bart Verbruggen (4.6m, NED) also totals 211k, on 62k → 91k → 58k over [A]GRE → [H]SER → [H]GRE, and Jordan Pickford (4.5m, ENG) has the flattest program of any keeper at 65k → 72k → 72k over [A]CRO → [H]CZE → [H]CRO, 209k. Simon out-scores both by around 50k tonight and only ties them over three rounds. If you want a keeper you buy once and stop thinking about, buy Pickford or Verbruggen for more than a million less; if you want the points now, buy Simon. Diogo Costa (19.2% owned) is a hold at 64k → 64k → 68k over [A]DEN → [H]NOR → [H]DEN. Jonas Urbig (4.5m, GER) projects 97k against Serbia but falls to 46k and 22k after it, so he is a one-round option only.
Defenders for Nations Manager Runde 3
Denzel Dumfries (4.6m, NED) is the top defender over the window. He projects 80k → 126k → 58k over [A]GRE → [H]SER → [H]GRE, 263k in total, 44k clear of the next defender, and his 126k in Runde 4 is the third-highest projection of any player that round. He is on 12.6% of teams. Virgil van Dijk (5.1m, NED) plays the same program for 208k (56k → 93k → 59k) and the model gives him most of the Dutch penalties, but Dumfries is cheaper and projects more.
Nico O'Reilly (4.0m, ENG) is the budget hold: 70k → 75k → 74k over [A]CRO → [H]CZE → [H]CRO, 219k for 4.0m and second among defenders. Marc Guehi (4.6m, ENG) is the hidden gem on the same English run at 0.7% ownership, 60k → 66k → 65k for 190k, with Trent Alexander-Arnold (0.4% owned, 181k) the third English option. For Portugal, Nuno Mendes (5.2m, POR) runs 63k → 65k → 67k over [A]DEN → [H]NOR → [H]DEN, 195k, and gets slightly better after this round.
The one-round defenders are Spanish and German, and the best of them is new this week. Iván Fresneda (2.5m, ESP) is the top defender of the round at 122k, with 84 projected minutes against Czechia, and at 48.9k per million he is the best value of any player in the game this round. He drops to 33k and 28k over [H]CZE → [A]CRO → [A]CZE, so buy him for tonight and sell before Runde 4; the 25k fee is nothing against a 63% clean-sheet chance. Ridle Baku (4.0m, GER) is the German version at 121k against Serbia, then 55k → 21k over [H]SER → [A]GRE → [A]SER. Marc Cucurella (120k), Pau Cubarsi and Aymeric Laporte (both 113k) are the pricier Spanish routes into the same clean sheet, and all three fall below 40k after it. Dumfries out-scores every one of them over three rounds, so buy Dumfries to hold and one cheap Spaniard to rotate.
Midfielders for Nations Manager Runde 3
Michael Olise (8.4m, FRA) is the premium to own. He projects 172k → 135k → 80k over [H]ITA → [H]BEL → [A]ITA, 387k in total, the most of any midfielder and second only to Haaland in the whole game, and the model gives him all of France's penalties. His 135k in Runde 4 is the second-highest projection of that round. The drop only comes in Runde 5 in Italy, six weeks away, so you can hold him through both October rounds and decide in November. Désiré Doué (5.1m, FRA) is the cheaper French route at 113k → 95k → 53k on the same program, 261k at 7.1% ownership.
Florian Wirtz (7.0m, GER) is the German midfielder worth keeping. He projects 175k against Serbia, the fourth-highest number of the round, then 91k in Greece and 62k in Serbia ([H]SER → [A]GRE → [A]SER), 328k in total and second among midfielders. He takes most of Germany's penalties and is owned by only 1.2% of managers. The cheaper Germans are one-rounders: Said El Mala (3.5m, GER) projects 125k (35.7k per million) and Serge Gnabry (5.5m, GER) 149k at 0.2% ownership, but both fall to 60k or less in Greece (El Mala 125k → 49k → 23k). Karim Adeyemi (16.2% owned) is now in our predicted eleven and projects 144k, so keep him for Serbia and sell before Greece, where he drops to 49k.
Bruno Fernandes (7.5m, POR) is the flat-program differential. He projects 95k → 101k → 109k over [A]DEN → [H]NOR → [H]DEN, 305k at 4.1% ownership, and the program gets better after this round rather than worse. England run the same way: Jude Bellingham (6.6m, ENG) projects 83k → 85k → 83k and Bukayo Saka (6.1m, ENG) 74k → 75k → 75k over [A]CRO → [H]CZE → [H]CRO. None of them tops a round, and none of them has a weak one.
The Dutch hidden gem is Ruben van Bommel (3.7m, NED): 79k → 111k → 45k over [A]GRE → [H]SER → [H]GRE, 234k at 1.7% ownership, with the Serbia home game his best week. Gustav Isaksen (12.9% owned) has the same Runde 4 shape for Denmark at 60k → 103k → 50k over [H]POR → [A]WAL → [A]POR. For November, keep Arda Güler (3.5m, TUR): 40k in Belgium tonight is a poor return, but he rises to 57k in Italy and 110k at home to Belgium in Runde 5 ([A]BEL → [A]ITA → [H]BEL), the third-highest projection of that round. Holding him costs nothing; buying him now does not pay until November.
Forwards for Nations Manager Runde 3
Erling Haaland (10.0m, NOR) is the hold. He projects 199k → 83k → 150k over [A]WAL → [A]POR → [H]WAL, 432k in total, the most of any player in the game, and he takes most of Norway's penalties. The Portugal away game in Runde 4 is his one weak week; the Welsh games either side of it are the second-highest projection of Runde 3 and the highest of Runde 5. He is on 48.3% of teams, so owning him protects your rank rather than winning it.
Harry Kane (8.8m, ENG) is the flattest premium in the game: 124k → 123k → 120k over [A]CRO → [H]CZE → [H]CRO, 367k in total, with England's penalties. He is the forward to own if you want the same score every round. With Ronaldo out of Portugal's predicted eleven, Goncalo Ramos (6.3m, POR) is the new differential: 100k → 96k → 73k over [A]DEN → [H]NOR → [H]DEN, 269k at 1.4% ownership. Portugal's lineup is out before the deadline, so confirm he starts before you buy.
Spain's pair is the Runde 3 story. Lamine Yamal (9.5m, ESP) projects 207k against Czechia, the top number of the round, and Mikel Oyarzabal (8.3m, ESP) 190k with Spain's penalties. After it both drop over [H]CZE → [A]CRO → [A]CZE, Yamal to 77k and 75k and Oyarzabal to 72k and 70k, which is still a respectable return. Yamal has 358k over three rounds and Oyarzabal 332k for 1.3m less. Nico Williams (4.7m, ESP) is the cheap way into the same game: 152k tonight at 32.3k per million, then 55k in Croatia and 55k in Czechia.
Mexx Meerdink (2.9m, NED) is the best-value player to hold. He projects 111k → 158k → 67k over [A]GRE → [H]SER → [H]GRE, 335k in total for 2.9m, and his 158k in Runde 4 is the highest projection of that round. He is on 24.4% of teams. Crysencio Summerville (4.1m, NED) is the other Dutch forward at 79k → 122k → 58k on the same program, 259k at 5.9% ownership. Ousmane Dembélé (26.6% owned) is a hold for October at 152k → 120k → 69k over [H]ITA → [H]BEL → [A]ITA; like Olise, his drop is in November. Jonathan Burkardt (5.0m, GER) projects 168k against Serbia but 52k and 17k after it, which makes him a one-round buy only.
| Player | Nation | Price | Owned | Runde 3 → 4 → 5 | 3-round xP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erling Haaland | NOR | 10.0m | 48.3% | 199k → 83k → 150k | 432k |
| Michael Olise | FRA | 8.4m | 21.2% | 172k → 135k → 80k | 387k |
| Harry Kane | ENG | 8.8m | 21.7% | 124k → 123k → 120k | 367k |
| Lamine Yamal | ESP | 9.5m | 14.4% | 207k → 77k → 75k | 358k |
| Ousmane Dembélé | FRA | 6.6m | 26.6% | 152k → 120k → 69k | 341k |
| Mexx Meerdink | NED | 2.9m | 24.4% | 111k → 158k → 67k | 335k |
| Mikel Oyarzabal | ESP | 8.3m | 4.6% | 190k → 72k → 70k | 332k |
| Florian Wirtz | GER | 7.0m | 1.2% | 175k → 91k → 62k | 328k |
| Bruno Fernandes | POR | 7.5m | 4.1% | 95k → 101k → 109k | 305k |
| Goncalo Ramos | POR | 6.3m | 1.4% | 100k → 96k → 73k | 269k |
| Denzel Dumfries | NED | 4.6m | 12.6% | 80k → 126k → 58k | 263k |
| Nico Williams | ESP | 4.7m | 5.4% | 152k → 55k → 55k | 262k |
| Désiré Doué | FRA | 5.1m | 7.1% | 113k → 95k → 53k | 261k |
| Crysencio Summerville | NED | 4.1m | 5.9% | 79k → 122k → 58k | 259k |
| Jude Bellingham | ENG | 6.6m | 13.8% | 83k → 85k → 83k | 250k |
| Ruben van Bommel | NED | 3.7m | 1.7% | 79k → 111k → 45k | 234k |
| Nico O'Reilly | ENG | 4.0m | 2.5% | 70k → 75k → 74k | 219k |
| Unai Simon | ESP | 5.7m | 6.7% | 113k → 49k → 49k | 211k |
| Bart Verbruggen | NED | 4.6m | 10.6% | 62k → 91k → 58k | 211k |
| Jordan Pickford | ENG | 4.5m | 4.1% | 65k → 72k → 72k | 209k |
Nations Manager Runde 3 captain (kaptajn)
Lamine Yamal (9.5m, ESP) is the top Runde 3 captain at 207k, doubled to 414k, with Spain 90% favourites at home to Czechia on [H]CZE → [A]CRO → [A]CZE. Erling Haaland (10.0m, NOR) is 8k behind at 199k in Wales on [A]WAL → [A]POR → [H]WAL, and Mikel Oyarzabal is third at 190k. The gap between the top two is small: captaining Haaland instead of Yamal costs about 16k on the armband, so buying Yamal purely for the armband only pays if you also want him after tonight. Florian Wirtz (175k) and Michael Olise (172k) are the fourth and fifth options.
Plan the armband across the window, because it changes hands every round. In Runde 4, Mexx Meerdink leads at 158k, with Olise (135k), Dumfries (126k), Kane (123k) and Summerville (122k) behind him. In Runde 5, Haaland leads again at 150k, with Kane at 120k. Owning Haaland plus Olise or Kane, with Meerdink as the cheap Runde 4 option, gives you a strong captain in each of the next three rounds.
Who to sell before Nations Manager Runde 3
Patrick Dorgu (3.0m, DEN) is the biggest sale, and the round to do it is this one. He is on 34.1% of teams but is not in our Danish predicted lineups for any round from Runde 3 to Runde 6, so he projects 0k in each of them on [H]POR → [A]WAL → [A]POR. There is no fixture in the window worth waiting for. Kylian Mbappé (10.7m, FRA) is on 14.3% of teams and also projects 0k in every round from Runde 3 to 6. France's [H]ITA → [H]BEL → [A]ITA is a good run, so the fixtures are not the problem: selling now moves that run into Michael Olise or Ousmane Dembélé before its two best games are played.
Cristiano Ronaldo (7.6m, POR) is the new sale. On [A]DEN → [H]NOR → [H]DEN he projects only 30k tonight, because Ramos starts ahead of him in our predicted eleven, and 62k at home to Norway; his 93k in Runde 5 is a November number. Denmark away is not a bad fixture for Portugal, but Ronaldo is not projected to play much of it, so the why-now is the minutes rather than the fixture. Portugal's lineup is confirmed about an hour before the deadline, so check the predicted lineups first.
The German bench is the next block, and the timing is the argument. Kevin Schade (15.1% owned) and Felix Nmecha (15.8%) are projected for two minutes against Serbia and below zero points. Serbia at home is Germany's best fixture of the window, so this is the round German points come from, and these two are not projected to play it. Sell now and put the money into Wirtz or El Mala for the same game. Álex Baena (14.1% owned) and Ferran Torres (8.3%) are in the same position for Spain, at 27k and 25k in Spain's best game of the window. Brian Brobbey (16.4% owned) projects 19k → 31k → 9k for the Netherlands while Meerdink starts the same program for 2.9m.
Some sells can wait. Oscar Bobb (25.4% owned) projects 85k in Wales, 26.6k per million, so keep him for it, then move him before Norway go to Portugal and he drops to 30k. The Danes are the other way round: Mikkel Damsgaard (22.9% owned) and Rasmus Højlund (14.6%) project only 49k and 47k at home to Portugal, but rise to 85k and 86k in Wales in Runde 4 ([H]POR → [A]WAL → [A]POR). Hold them for the Welsh game and sell before November. Jan Paul van Hecke (18.9% owned) has a similar shape on the Dutch program (54k → 62k → 24k), so you can wait a round on him too. The Nations Manager optimal teams solver shows the best eleven for any window of rounds, and more analysis is in the Nations Manager preview hub.
FAQ
Who should I captain in Nations Manager Runde 3?
Lamine Yamal is the top captain at 207k, doubled to 414k, with Spain 90% favourites at home to Czechia. Erling Haaland (199k in Wales) is 8k behind and the natural choice if you already own him, with Mikel Oyarzabal third at 190k.
Should I sell Patrick Dorgu before Nations Manager Runde 3?
Yes. Patrick Dorgu is not in our Danish predicted lineups for any round from Runde 3 to Runde 6 and projects 0k in each. Denzel Dumfries (263k over Runde 3 to 5) and Nico O'Reilly (219k) are the best defenders to replace him with.
Should I sell Cristiano Ronaldo before Nations Manager Runde 3?
Probably, but check the confirmed lineup first. Cristiano Ronaldo is out of Portugal's predicted eleven tonight and projects 30k, while Goncalo Ramos projects 100k → 96k → 73k over [A]DEN → [H]NOR → [H]DEN at 1.4% ownership.
Best differentials for Nations Manager Runde 3?
Florian Wirtz (1.2% owned, 328k over three rounds), Bruno Fernandes (4.1%, 305k) and Ruben van Bommel (1.7%, 234k) are the best low-owned picks with strong programs. Iván Fresneda (0.5% owned, 122k against Czechia for 2.5m) is the one-round differential in defence.
Who are the best budget picks for Nations Manager Runde 3?
Mexx Meerdink (2.9m) is the best budget hold at 335k over Runde 3 to 5. Iván Fresneda (2.5m) and Said El Mala (3.5m) are one-round buys for tonight's best fixtures, and Nico O'Reilly (4.0m) is the budget defender to keep.
This preview was written by TheFantasyTool AI.