Nations Manager Runde 3: captain picks and who to sell
Nations Manager Runde 3 preview: best buys, differentials and the kaptajn pick
Nations Manager Runde 3 has its deadline on Thursday 1 October at 20:45, and it is the first of two rounds in four days: Runde 3 runs from 1 to 3 October, Runde 4 from 4 to 6 October, and then the Nations League stops until Runde 5 on 12 November. So a transfer made now has to earn its fee over two October rounds and then carry into November. That is the lens for every pick below. The round's biggest story is Germany: they host Serbia with a 72% win probability, the best fixture of Runde 3, but their next two games are both away. The biggest problem in most squads is Danish. Patrick Dorgu is on 49.2% of teams, and Denmark now have the second-weakest program in the game. This preview covers who to buy, who to captain, the hidden gems and who to sell.
Every player's projection is on the Nations Manager player picks page, and the Nations Manager optimal teams solver builds the best eleven live for any window of rounds. Our Nations Manager Runde 2 preview covered the start of the October window.
The programs: whose Runde 3 to 5 is worth owning
England have the best program in the game: [A]CRO → [H]CZE → [H]CRO, with 5.12 expected goals and 1.15 expected clean sheets over the three rounds, both the highest of any nation. Runde 3 in Croatia is the weakest of the three (42% win probability), and then England host Czechia and Croatia with a 40% and a 43% clean-sheet chance. That is a program that improves after this round, which makes England the block to buy into now and hold into November.
Portugal are close behind at 5.08 expected goals from [A]DEN → [H]NOR → [H]DEN. They are 50% favourites in Denmark and then play both of the next two at home. The Netherlands ([A]GRE → [H]SER → [H]GRE, 4.85 xG, 1.02 CS) have the second-best defensive run, with the Serbia home game in Runde 4 as its best week. Norway ([A]WAL → [A]POR → [H]WAL, 4.84 xG) have two good Welsh games either side of a trip to Portugal.
Germany are the one-round story. [H]SER → [A]GRE → [A]SER opens with 2.48 expected goals against Serbia, the most of any team this round, but Germany are only 26% to win in Greece and 35% in Serbia after it. So Germany's players top Runde 3 and then fall a long way down the three-round list. Spain ([H]CZE → [A]CRO → [A]CZE, 4.82 xG) have a similar shape, with their best game first and two away games after it.
At the bottom, Belgium (3.21), Denmark (3.25) and Serbia (3.32) have the three weakest programs. Denmark's [H]POR → [A]WAL → [A]POR gives them a 23% win probability this round and 0.56 expected clean sheets over three games, which is why the Danish block is the main sell of the round.
| Team | Runde 3 | Win probability | Expected goals | Clean sheet | Program | 3-round xG | 3-round CS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ENG | [A]CRO | 42% | 1.40 | 32% | [A]CRO → [H]CZE → [H]CRO | 5.12 | 1.15 |
| POR | [A]DEN | 50% | 1.64 | 35% | [A]DEN → [H]NOR → [H]DEN | 5.08 | 0.95 |
| GER | [H]SER | 72% | 2.48 | 41% | [H]SER → [A]GRE → [A]SER | 4.93 | 0.87 |
| NED | [A]GRE | 51% | 1.65 | 35% | [A]GRE → [H]SER → [H]GRE | 4.85 | 1.02 |
| NOR | [A]WAL | 52% | 1.80 | 33% | [A]WAL → [A]POR → [H]WAL | 4.84 | 0.88 |
| ESP | [H]CZE | 55% | 1.92 | 32% | [H]CZE → [A]CRO → [A]CZE | 4.82 | 0.78 |
| FRA | [H]ITA | 47% | 1.67 | 29% | [H]ITA → [H]BEL → [A]ITA | 4.76 | 0.83 |
| TUR | [A]BEL | 40% | 1.40 | 29% | [A]BEL → [A]ITA → [H]BEL | 4.55 | 0.91 |
| ITA | [A]FRA | 28% | 1.24 | 19% | [A]FRA → [H]TUR → [H]FRA | 4.38 | 0.76 |
| WAL | [H]NOR | 23% | 1.12 | 17% | [H]NOR → [H]DEN → [A]NOR | 3.77 | 0.68 |
| GRE | [H]NED | 23% | 1.04 | 19% | [H]NED → [H]GER → [A]NED | 3.76 | 0.77 |
| CZE | [A]ESP | 21% | 1.14 | 15% | [A]ESP → [A]ENG → [H]ESP | 3.58 | 0.54 |
| CRO | [H]ENG | 30% | 1.14 | 25% | [H]ENG → [H]ESP → [A]ENG | 3.39 | 0.63 |
| SER | [A]GER | 11% | 0.89 | 8% | [A]GER → [A]NED → [H]GER | 3.32 | 0.51 |
| DEN | [H]POR | 23% | 1.05 | 19% | [H]POR → [A]WAL → [A]POR | 3.25 | 0.56 |
| BEL | [H]TUR | 32% | 1.25 | 24% | [H]TUR → [A]FRA → [A]TUR | 3.21 | 0.55 |
All sixteen nations play once in each of Runde 3, 4 and 5, so every 3-round total covers three games. Kick-off times are on the Nations Manager schedule, and the bookmaker lines behind these numbers are on the market probabilities page.
Goalkeepers for Nations Manager Runde 3
Jordan Pickford (4.5m, ENG) is the keeper to own. His program is [A]CRO → [H]CZE → [H]CRO, and his projection rises every round: 59k → 74k → 77k, 210k in total, the most of any goalkeeper. Only 4.3% of managers have him. Marc-Andre ter Stegen (5.1m, GER) is the top keeper this round at 85k against Serbia, but he falls to 42k in Greece and 50k in Serbia ([H]SER → [A]GRE → [A]SER). This is where the round and the window disagree: ter Stegen wins Runde 3 by 26k, Pickford wins the three rounds by 32k and costs half a million less. If you are buying one keeper and keeping him, buy Pickford.
Bart Verbruggen (4.6m, NED) is the Dutch alternative at 200k over [A]GRE → [H]SER → [H]GRE (69k → 70k → 60k), a flat program with no weak week in it. Diogo Costa (19.4% owned) is a hold at 68k → 59k → 68k over [A]DEN → [H]NOR → [H]DEN. The value pick is Altay Bayindir (2.5m, TUR): 56k → 47k → 74k over [A]BEL → [A]ITA → [H]BEL, 22.2k per million this round and his best number in the Belgium home game in November, for a 25k fee.
Defenders for Nations Manager Runde 3
Denzel Dumfries (4.6m, NED) is the top defender over the window: 79k → 82k → 59k across [A]GRE → [H]SER → [H]GRE, 219k in total. The Serbia home game is his best week, and at 12.7% ownership he still separates you from most of the field. Virgil van Dijk (5.1m, NED) does the same job on the same program for 207k (73k → 76k → 58k) if you want the centre-back.
The English defenders are the program buys, and the case for them is that Runde 3 is their weakest week, not their best. Nico O'Reilly (4.0m, ENG) projects 51k → 74k → 76k over [A]CRO → [H]CZE → [H]CRO, 202k for 4.0m, and he is projected for over 80 minutes in all three rounds. Trent Alexander-Arnold (4.5m, ENG) (53k → 67k → 61k on the same English run, 181k) is the hidden gem at 0.2% ownership, and Marc Guehi (182k) is the third option. For Portugal, Nuno Mendes (5.2m, POR) runs 65k → 55k → 65k over [A]DEN → [H]NOR → [H]DEN, 185k in total.
Germany's defence is a one-round buy with a named sell-again date. Josha Vagnoman (3.5m, GER) tops the position this round at 99k against Serbia, 28.4k per million, the best value of any player in the game. After that he falls away over [H]SER → [A]GRE → [A]SER (99k → 32k → 24k). The fee is 35k, so buying him for Runde 3 and selling him before Runde 4 costs almost nothing against a 41% clean-sheet chance. Philipp Treu (3.0m, GER) is the cheaper version on the same [H]SER → [A]GRE → [A]SER program at 81k → 23k → 25k and 26.7k per million, for a 30k fee. Nico Schlotterbeck (87k → 30k → 38k) is the pricier route. Vagnoman out-scores Dumfries by 20k this round, while Dumfries has 65k more over the three. Buy Dumfries to hold and Vagnoman to rotate.
Midfielders for Nations Manager Runde 3
Michael Olise (8.1m, FRA) is the premium to own for October. He projects 119k → 134k → 67k over [H]ITA → [H]BEL → [A]ITA, 321k in total, the most of any midfielder, and he is on French penalties. The drop comes in Runde 5 in Italy, six weeks away, so you can hold him through both October rounds and decide in November.
The hidden gem of the round is Rafael Leao (6.0m, POR). He projects 112k → 100k → 96k over [A]DEN → [H]NOR → [H]DEN, 308k in total, second among midfielders, and only 0.4% of managers own him. His trajectory is one of the flattest of any player priced 6m or more: there is no weak week in Portugal's run, so he is a buy you can make once and stop thinking about.
England's midfield is a buy for the program, not the round. Jude Bellingham (6.5m, ENG) runs 69k → 97k → 96k over [A]CRO → [H]CZE → [H]CRO, and Bukayo Saka (6.0m, ENG) runs 62k → 86k → 87k at 1.7% ownership. Saka produced 1.07 xG plus xA per 90 minutes across his last ten matches before this window. Anthony Gordon (4.6m, ENG) is the cheaper English option at 59k → 83k → 84k on the same run. All three rise after Runde 3, so the buy has to be in before the Czechia home game, not after it.
Germany's attack is Runde 3's best one-rounder. Serge Gnabry (5.5m, GER) projects 140k against Serbia, the second-highest number of any player this round, at 0.2% ownership, and he produced 1.06 xG plus xA per 90 across his last ten matches. Florian Wirtz (7.0m, GER) projects 129k, and Joshua Kimmich (5.5m, GER) projects 87k and takes Germany's penalties. All three fall after it over [H]SER → [A]GRE → [A]SER: Gnabry 140k → 50k → 62k, Wirtz 129k → 46k → 53k, Kimmich 87k → 30k → 55k. Buy one of them for Runde 3 and plan to sell before Runde 4. Gnabry is the pick, because he costs 1.5m less than Wirtz and out-scores him.
The value midfielder is Arda Güler (3.5m, TUR): 67k → 55k → 89k over [A]BEL → [A]ITA → [H]BEL, 211k in total, with his best number in the Belgium home game in November. For a cheap Welsh option, Brennan Johnson (3.0m, WAL) projects 42k → 74k → 55k over [H]NOR → [H]DEN → [A]NOR. The Denmark home game in Runde 4 is his best week, and he is projected for Wales's penalties from Runde 4. Christos Tzolis (17.5% owned) is a hold at 45k → 75k → 59k over [H]NED → [H]GER → [A]NED, with the Germany home game in Runde 4 his best week.
Forwards for Nations Manager Runde 3
Erling Haaland (9.9m, NOR) is the hold and the captain. He projects 168k → 112k → 164k over [A]WAL → [A]POR → [H]WAL, 444k in total, the highest in the game by 73k. His two Welsh games are the top projection of Runde 3 and of Runde 5, and he produced 0.72 xG plus xA per 90 across his last ten matches. He is on 46.9% of teams, so owning him protects your rank rather than winning it.
Cristiano Ronaldo (7.6m, POR) is the forward buy. He projects 113k → 105k → 140k over [A]DEN → [H]NOR → [H]DEN, 358k in total, and his Runde 5 number against Denmark is the second-highest of that round. He takes Portugal's penalties and produced 0.67 xG plus xA per 90 across his last ten matches. Harry Kane (8.6m, ENG) (21.9% owned) is the hold: Runde 3 in Croatia is his weakest week at 100k, and then he projects 136k and 135k in England's two home games ([A]CRO → [H]CZE → [H]CRO). Selling Kane now would mean selling him right before his two best rounds.
Spain's pair is front-loaded. Lamine Yamal (105k → 73k → 68k) and Mikel Oyarzabal (106k → 75k → 70k) are both inside the top ten this round, but both fall away over [H]CZE → [A]CRO → [A]CZE. Yamal and Ronaldo are 8k apart in Runde 3, while Ronaldo has 113k more over the three rounds and costs 1.6m less. If you are buying one and keeping him, buy Ronaldo. Ousmane Dembélé (26.5% owned) is a hold for October at 109k → 122k → 66k over [H]ITA → [H]BEL → [A]ITA; like Olise, his drop is in November.
The hidden gems are cheap. Kerem Akturkoglu (3.0m, TUR) projects 81k → 66k → 90k over [A]BEL → [A]ITA → [H]BEL, 237k in total at 0.3% ownership, with Turkish penalty duty. At 27.0k per million he is the best-value forward of the round. Crysencio Summerville (4.1m, NED) runs 87k → 93k → 63k over [A]GRE → [H]SER → [H]GRE, 244k in total, and produced 0.88 xG plus xA per 90 across his last ten matches. For a Runde 4 target, Vangelis Pavlidis (3.6m, GRE) projects 56k → 93k → 58k over [H]NED → [H]GER → [A]NED. The Germany home game is his best week, and he produced 1.24 xG plus xA per 90 across his last ten matches.
| Player | Nation | Price | Owned | Runde 3 → 4 → 5 | 3-round xP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erling Haaland | NOR | 9.9m | 46.9% | 168k → 112k → 164k | 444k |
| Harry Kane | ENG | 8.6m | 21.9% | 100k → 136k → 135k | 371k |
| Cristiano Ronaldo | POR | 7.6m | 10.3% | 113k → 105k → 140k | 358k |
| Michael Olise | FRA | 8.1m | 20.5% | 119k → 134k → 67k | 321k |
| Rafael Leao | POR | 6.0m | 0.4% | 112k → 100k → 96k | 308k |
| Ousmane Dembélé | FRA | 6.6m | 26.5% | 109k → 122k → 66k | 298k |
| Jude Bellingham | ENG | 6.5m | 14.1% | 69k → 97k → 96k | 262k |
| Serge Gnabry | GER | 5.5m | 0.2% | 140k → 50k → 62k | 251k |
| Crysencio Summerville | NED | 4.1m | 6.0% | 87k → 93k → 63k | 244k |
| Kerem Akturkoglu | TUR | 3.0m | 0.3% | 81k → 66k → 90k | 237k |
| Bukayo Saka | ENG | 6.0m | 1.7% | 62k → 86k → 87k | 235k |
| Denzel Dumfries | NED | 4.6m | 12.7% | 79k → 82k → 59k | 219k |
| Arda Güler | TUR | 3.5m | 17.2% | 67k → 55k → 89k | 211k |
| Jordan Pickford | ENG | 4.5m | 4.3% | 59k → 74k → 77k | 210k |
| Nico O'Reilly | ENG | 4.0m | 3.2% | 51k → 74k → 76k | 202k |
| Josha Vagnoman | GER | 3.5m | 0.5% | 99k → 32k → 24k | 154k |
| Altay Bayindir | TUR | 2.5m | 1.6% | 56k → 47k → 74k | 176k |
Nations Manager Runde 3 captain (kaptajn)
Erling Haaland (9.9m, NOR) is the Runde 3 captain at 168k, doubled to 336k, and his [A]WAL → [A]POR → [H]WAL program keeps the armband on him in Runde 5 too. Norway are 52% favourites in Wales, he is on penalties, and he is 28k clear of anyone else. Serge Gnabry (140k) is the alternative if you are buying him for the Serbia game, and Florian Wirtz (129k) and Michael Olise (119k) follow.
Plan the armband across the window. In Runde 4, Harry Kane (136k) and Michael Olise (134k) lead, with Ousmane Dembélé next at 122k. In Runde 5, Haaland leads again at 164k, with Cristiano Ronaldo at 140k and Kane at 135k. Owning Haaland plus Kane or Olise gives you a strong captain in each of the next three rounds.
Who to sell before Nations Manager Runde 3
Patrick Dorgu (3.0m, DEN) is the biggest sale, and the round to do it is this one. He is on 49.2% of teams, but Denmark's program is [H]POR → [A]WAL → [A]POR, with a 23% win probability at home to Portugal and 0.56 expected clean sheets over three games. He projects 42k → 45k → 40k. There is no good week to sell into and none to wait for, so the 30k fee buys you the same English or Dutch defender now that it would next round. Mikkel Damsgaard (3.2m, DEN) (26.1% owned, 43k → 46k → 37k) goes for the same reason, and Rasmus Højlund (16.2% owned) projects only 44k → 47k → 48k for 5.7m. Filip Jörgensen (13.0% owned) is the simplest call of all: he is unavailable, projects -5k in every round and is not expected back before the group stage ends.
Germany's Runde 2 attackers are the second block, and the timing is the argument. Kevin Schade (19.3% owned), Karim Adeyemi (19.2%) and Felix Nmecha (17.0%) are projected for five or six minutes against Serbia, with Gnabry, Wirtz and Kimmich in the starting eleven instead. The Serbia home game is Germany's best fixture of the window, so this is the round their points come from, and these three are not projected to take part in it. Sell now and buy Gnabry or Kimmich for the same game. Check the Nations Manager predicted lineups before the deadline in case the German eleven changes.
Kylian Mbappé (10.7m, FRA) is still on 17.4% of teams and still unavailable for both October rounds, projecting -5k in Runde 3 and Runde 4. He only returns to 36k in Runde 5. France's [H]ITA → [H]BEL → [A]ITA is a good run, so the fixtures are not the problem; he simply has no minutes to score from in October. The 107k fee is the same now or in November, and every October round you wait is a dead squad spot. Brian Brobbey (20.1% owned) projects 0k in every round from Runde 3 to Runde 6 because he is not in our Dutch predicted lineups, and Mexx Meerdink (18.2%) projects under 25 minutes a game (36k → 34k → 29k). Summerville plays the same Dutch program for about a million more.
Two sells can wait a round. Jan Paul van Hecke (20.7% owned) projects 59k in Greece, a respectable return, but his projected minutes fall to 54 and 35 after it (59k → 36k → 20k), so hold him for Runde 3 and move him before Runde 4. Oscar Bobb (23.0% owned) has the same shape: 68k in Wales is a decent week, then 39k in Portugal. Renato Veiga (14.3% owned) cannot wait: he projects about 12 minutes against Denmark and 10k → 8k → 18k, while Nuno Mendes plays the same Portuguese program. The optimal teams solver shows the exact swap for any window of rounds, and more analysis is in the Nations Manager preview hub.
FAQ
Who should I captain in Nations Manager Runde 3?
Erling Haaland is the top captain with 168k, doubled to 336k. Norway are 52% favourites in Wales and he takes the penalties. Serge Gnabry (140k) and Florian Wirtz (129k) are the next options.
Should I sell Patrick Dorgu before Nations Manager Runde 3?
Yes. Patrick Dorgu projects 42k → 45k → 40k over Runde 3 to 5, and Denmark's [H]POR → [A]WAL → [A]POR is one of the three weakest programs in the game. Denzel Dumfries (219k), Virgil van Dijk (207k) and Nico O'Reilly (202k) are the three best defenders over the same three rounds.
Which nations have the best fixtures in Nations Manager Runde 3 to 5?
England have the best three-round program at 5.12 expected goals and 1.15 expected clean sheets ([A]CRO → [H]CZE → [H]CRO). Portugal and the Netherlands follow. Germany have the best Runde 3 fixture at home to Serbia but two away games after it, and Belgium, Denmark and Serbia have the weakest programs.
Best differentials for Nations Manager Runde 3?
Rafael Leao (0.4% owned, 308k over three rounds), Kerem Akturkoglu (0.3%, 237k) and Trent Alexander-Arnold (0.2%, 181k) are the best low-owned picks with strong programs. Serge Gnabry (0.2%) is the one-round differential at 140k against Serbia.
Who are the best budget picks for Nations Manager Runde 3?
Josha Vagnoman (28.4k per million) and Philipp Treu (26.7k per million) give the most points per million among defenders in Runde 3, but both are one-round buys because Germany play away in Runde 4 and 5. Kerem Akturkoglu, Arda Güler and Altay Bayindir are the budget picks to hold.
This preview was written by TheFantasyTool AI.