Nations Manager Runde 2: captain picks and best buys
Nations Manager Runde 2 preview: best buys, captain picks and differentials
Nations Manager Runde 2 kicks off on Sunday 27 September, and it is the first of three rounds that are packed into ten days. Runde 3 runs from 1 to 3 October and Runde 4 from 4 to 6 October, and then the Nations League stops until November. So the squad you set now is really a squad for the whole October window. Each of the next three rounds is a mini-series against the same group rivals, which means every nation's program is either very good, very bad or split down the middle. This preview covers who to buy, who to captain, the hidden gems and who to sell, and every pick is judged on Runde 2 to 4, not just this weekend.
Every player's projection is on the Nations Manager player picks page, and the Nations Manager optimal teams solver builds the best eleven live for any window of rounds. If you missed it, our Nations Manager Runde 1 preview set out the opening squad.
The programs: whose Runde 2 to 4 is worth owning
Spain have the best three-round run in the game at 5.54 expected goals and 1.13 expected clean sheets. Their program is [H]CRO → [H]CZE → [A]CRO, and the Croatia home game carries the highest win probability and clean-sheet chance of Runde 2: 74% win probability, 2.29 expected goals and a 52% clean-sheet chance. Spain have also conceded just 0.51 xG per game across their last ten internationals, which is why their defence looks so strong.
England are the best defensive program at 1.21 expected clean sheets from [A]CZE → [A]CRO → [H]CZE. Their attack is a touch lower than Spain's at 5.06, but England's run is also the most durable. The two Czechia games bookend a trip to Croatia, and England then host Croatia in Runde 5. Germany ([H]GRE → [H]SER → [A]GRE, 5.26 xG) and the Netherlands ([A]SER → [A]GRE → [H]SER, 4.96) both have two strong games and one weaker one. For Germany the weaker game comes last, in Greece in Runde 4. For the Netherlands it comes in the middle, away to Greece in Runde 3.
Denmark are the short-term story. [H]WAL → [H]POR → [A]WAL gives them two home games first, and Wales at home carries a 64% win probability. Then comes the away game in Wales in Runde 4, which is where the Danish numbers drop. At the other end, Czechia (2.70 xG), Serbia (2.89) and Croatia (3.12) have the three weakest programs. Every one of their October games is against Spain, England, Germany or the Netherlands, so avoid their attackers for the whole window.
| Team | Runde 2 | Win probability | Expected goals | Clean sheet | Program | 3-round xG | 3-round CS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ESP | [H]CRO | 74% | 2.29 | 52% | [H]CRO → [H]CZE → [A]CRO | 5.54 | 1.13 |
| GER | [H]GRE | 68% | 2.31 | 40% | [H]GRE → [H]SER → [A]GRE | 5.26 | 0.96 |
| FRA | [A]BEL | 49% | 1.74 | 30% | [A]BEL → [H]ITA → [H]BEL | 5.13 | 0.98 |
| ENG | [A]CZE | 66% | 2.08 | 45% | [A]CZE → [A]CRO → [H]CZE | 5.06 | 1.21 |
| NED | [A]SER | 66% | 2.09 | 45% | [A]SER → [A]GRE → [H]SER | 4.96 | 1.00 |
| POR | [A]NOR | 37% | 1.65 | 19% | [A]NOR → [A]DEN → [H]NOR | 4.68 | 0.68 |
| DEN | [H]WAL | 64% | 1.95 | 46% | [H]WAL → [H]POR → [A]WAL | 4.58 | 0.91 |
| NOR | [H]POR | 38% | 1.66 | 19% | [H]POR → [A]WAL → [A]POR | 4.24 | 0.63 |
| GRE | [A]GER | 13% | 0.91 | 10% | [A]GER → [H]NED → [H]GER | 4.13 | 0.77 |
| ITA | [A]TUR | 38% | 1.38 | 28% | [A]TUR → [A]FRA → [H]TUR | 3.96 | 0.79 |
| WAL | [A]DEN | 13% | 0.78 | 14% | [A]DEN → [H]NOR → [H]DEN | 3.78 | 0.75 |
| TUR | [H]ITA | 34% | 1.28 | 25% | [H]ITA → [A]BEL → [A]ITA | 3.73 | 0.79 |
| BEL | [H]FRA | 25% | 1.19 | 18% | [H]FRA → [H]TUR → [A]FRA | 3.39 | 0.62 |
| CRO | [A]ESP | 8% | 0.65 | 10% | [A]ESP → [H]ENG → [H]ESP | 3.12 | 0.63 |
| SER | [H]NED | 13% | 0.80 | 12% | [H]NED → [A]GER → [A]NED | 2.89 | 0.45 |
| CZE | [H]ENG | 13% | 0.80 | 13% | [H]ENG → [A]ESP → [A]ENG | 2.70 | 0.46 |
All sixteen nations play once in each of Runde 2, 3 and 4, so every 3-round total is over three games. Kick-off times and venues are on the Nations Manager schedule, and the bookmaker lines behind these numbers are on the market probabilities page.
Goalkeepers
Jordan Pickford (4.5m, ENG) is the keeper to own for the window. His program is [A]CZE → [A]CRO → [H]CZE, and it produces the highest three-round total of any goalkeeper at 210k (81k → 56k → 73k). Only 4.3% of managers have him. Unai Simon (5.5m, ESP) tops Runde 2 with 90k for the Croatia home game, but he fades to 51k by the away leg ([H]CRO → [H]CZE → [A]CRO). If you are buying one keeper and keeping him, Pickford is the better buy.
Bart Verbruggen (4.5m, NED) is close behind with 198k over [A]SER → [A]GRE → [H]SER. The dip in Greece in Runde 3 costs him, but the two Serbia games are both good. The value pick is Mads Hermansen (3.5m, DEN): 82k against Wales at 23.3k per million, the best points per million of any keeper this round. His program ([H]WAL → [H]POR → [A]WAL) is a two-round buy, so plan to move him on before the Runde 4 trip to Wales. Marc-Andre ter Stegen (5.1m, 0.5% owned) is the low-owned alternative for Germany's two home games.
Defenders
Patrick Dorgu (3.0m, DEN) is still the best defender in the game. He projects 113k against Wales and 235k across [H]WAL → [H]POR → [A]WAL (113k → 74k → 48k), at a price that barely moves the rest of your squad. 33.7% of managers own him already, so he protects your rank rather than winning it. His trajectory falls each round, so he is a hold through Runde 3 and a sell candidate for the Runde 4 trip to Wales.
Denzel Dumfries (4.5m, NED) is the Dutch pick at 105k in Serbia and 226k over [A]SER → [A]GRE → [H]SER, second among defenders. His numbers move 105k → 38k → 82k. Greece away in Runde 3 is the weak week, but the two Serbia games more than cover it, and only 3.3% own him. Virgil van Dijk (5.0m, NED) does the same job with a 193k total if you prefer the centre-back.
The hidden gem is Nico O'Reilly (4.0m, ENG). He projects 82k → 48k → 70k → 70k over [A]CZE → [A]CRO → [H]CZE → [H]CRO. It is a program that barely dips, and at 1.8% ownership almost nobody has him. England also carry the best clean-sheet program in the game. Marc Guehi (4.5m, ENG) (186k, 0.7% owned) is the pricier English alternative. If you want a cheap Danish defender next to Dorgu, Rasmus Kristensen (3.0m, DEN) projects 80k in Runde 2. His fee is only 30k, but he falls to 28k in Runde 4, so treat him as a two-round rotation pick ([H]WAL → [H]POR → [A]WAL).
Midfielders
Jude Bellingham (6.5m, ENG) is the premium midfielder for the window. He projects 116k → 61k → 92k → 90k across [A]CZE → [A]CRO → [H]CZE → [H]CRO, the best three-round total of any midfielder at 269k. He has also produced 0.47 xG plus xA per 90 minutes across his last ten matches for club and country. Bukayo Saka (6.0m, ENG) is the low-owned English alternative at 1.3% with 232k over the same program.
Germany's midfield is a two-round buy. Jamal Musiala (6.5m, GER) moves 114k → 85k → 44k over [H]GRE → [H]SER → [A]GRE, and Karim Adeyemi (4.0m, GER) moves 106k → 87k → 41k at less than two thirds of the price. Both drop sharply for the Runde 4 trip to Greece, so buy them for the two home games and plan to sell before Runde 4. Adeyemi's projection assumes around 71 minutes, and he has played only 328 minutes across his last ten matches, so the minutes are the risk. Check the Nations Manager predicted lineups before the deadline.
The best value in the position is Mikkel Damsgaard (3.1m, DEN): 107k against Wales at 34.1k per million, the highest points per million of any midfielder this round. His program ([H]WAL → [H]POR → [A]WAL) runs 107k → 74k → 44k, the same Danish shape as Dorgu. Tijjani Reijnders (5.0m, NED) is the Dutch differential at 1.0% owned, with 221k over [A]SER → [A]GRE → [H]SER. Michael Olise (8.0m, 20.5% owned) is a solid hold, not a buy. France's [A]BEL → [H]ITA → [H]BEL gives him 88k → 72k → 91k.
One pick is for next round, not this one. Lewis Koumas (3.0m, WAL) projects only 35k in Denmark, but then 86k and 93k in Wales' two home games ([A]DEN → [H]NOR → [H]DEN). Worth bringing in for Runde 3. The Runde 2 fixture is too tough to justify the buy now.
Forwards
Harry Kane (8.5m, ENG) is the forward to build around. He tops Runde 2 at 151k in Czechia and runs 151k → 79k → 121k → 121k across [A]CZE → [A]CRO → [H]CZE → [H]CRO. Only Kylian Mbappé and Erling Haaland match his three-round total of 351k. Kane takes England's penalties and has produced 0.82 xG plus xA per 90 across his last ten matches. At 9.0% ownership he is also a real differential next to Haaland (46.5%) and Mbappé (32.5%).
Erling Haaland (9.8m, NOR) and Kylian Mbappé (10.5m, FRA) are the holds. Haaland (46.5% owned) runs 141k → 103k → 107k over [H]POR → [A]WAL → [A]POR and then 158k in Runde 5, so there is no reason to move him. Mbappé (32.5% owned) has the best three-round total in the game at 354k over [A]BEL → [H]ITA → [H]BEL, with the Runde 4 Belgium home game his biggest week at 130k. His 1.21 xG plus xA per 90 across his last ten matches is the highest of the forwards in this preview.
Brian Brobbey (3.0m, NED) remains the best-value forward in the game. He projects 138k → 57k → 108k over [A]SER → [A]GRE → [H]SER at 45.9k per million this round. He is on 42.8% of teams, and the Greece dip in Runde 3 is not a reason to sell him when Serbia at home follows. Spain's pair is front-loaded. Mikel Oyarzabal (8.0m, ESP) (139k → 91k → 70k) and Lamine Yamal (9.0m, ESP) (137k → 87k → 70k) are both excellent this weekend. But they fall in each round of [H]CRO → [H]CZE → [A]CRO, so treat them as a two-round stay rather than a hold.
The two hidden gems are cheap. Crysencio Summerville (4.0m, NED) projects 111k → 42k → 90k over [A]SER → [A]GRE → [H]SER at 3.7% ownership, and he has produced 0.88 xG plus xA per 90 across his last ten matches. Kerem Akturkoglu (3.0m, TUR) is the flat-program differential: 77k → 79k → 66k → 93k over [H]ITA → [A]BEL → [A]ITA → [H]BEL, with penalty duty, at 0.1% ownership. For a Runde 3 move, Vangelis Pavlidis (3.6m, GRE) projects 35k in Germany this weekend but 104k and 98k in Greece's two home games ([A]GER → [H]NED → [H]GER). That makes him the Runde 3 target, not a Runde 2 one.
| Player | Nation | Price | Owned | Runde 2 → 3 → 4 | 3-round xP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harry Kane | ENG | 8.5m | 9.0% | 151k → 79k → 121k | 351k |
| Kylian Mbappé | FRA | 10.5m | 32.5% | 128k → 97k → 130k | 354k |
| Erling Haaland | NOR | 9.8m | 46.5% | 141k → 103k → 107k | 351k |
| Brian Brobbey | NED | 3.0m | 42.8% | 138k → 57k → 108k | 303k |
| Mikel Oyarzabal | ESP | 8.0m | 3.0% | 139k → 91k → 70k | 300k |
| Crysencio Summerville | NED | 4.0m | 3.7% | 111k → 42k → 90k | 243k |
| Kerem Akturkoglu | TUR | 3.0m | 0.1% | 77k → 79k → 66k | 221k |
| Jude Bellingham | ENG | 6.5m | 10.4% | 116k → 61k → 92k | 269k |
| Patrick Dorgu | DEN | 3.0m | 33.7% | 113k → 74k → 48k | 235k |
| Nico O'Reilly | ENG | 4.0m | 1.8% | 82k → 48k → 70k | 200k |
| Jordan Pickford | ENG | 4.5m | 4.3% | 81k → 56k → 73k | 210k |
Nations Manager Runde 2 captain (kaptajn)
Harry Kane (8.5m, ENG) is the Runde 2 captain at 151k, doubled to 302k. England's 66% win probability in Czechia and his penalty duty give him the highest ceiling of the round, and his [A]CZE → [A]CRO → [H]CZE program means the armband comes back to him in Runde 4. Erling Haaland (141k) is the safe number two, and Mikel Oyarzabal (139k), Brian Brobbey (138k) and Lamine Yamal (137k) sit just behind him.
Plan the armband across the window, not just this weekend. In Runde 3, Pavlidis edges the field at 104k in Greece's home game, with Haaland (103k) and Mbappé (97k) the premium options. In Runde 4, Mbappé (130k) and Kane (121k) lead. Owning Kane plus one of Haaland or Mbappé gives you a strong captain in all three rounds.
Who to sell before Nations Manager Runde 2
Ousmane Dembélé (6.5m, FRA) is the clearest sale, and there is no reason to wait. 25.3% of managers own him. France's [A]BEL → [H]ITA → [H]BEL is a good program and [A]BEL is not a bad fixture, but his projection assumes only 61 minutes, and that caps him at 70k → 54k → 78k. Summerville projects more in Runde 2 and Runde 4 at a much lower price. The 65k fee is the same this week or next, so every round you wait is a round of lower points.
Nuno Mendes (5.2m, POR) is the defender to move, and the timing is the argument. Portugal's program is [A]NOR → [A]DEN → [H]NOR, and the two away games come first. He projects 48k → 43k → 61k, and Portugal have only a 19% clean-sheet chance in Norway. Sell him now and he can come back for November, when he projects 69k in Runde 5. Keep him and you hold through his two weakest weeks. The same logic applies to Diogo Costa (4.6m, POR), owned by 27.4%: 51k → 50k → 60k against Pickford's 81k → 56k → 73k is a clear upgrade for a 46k fee. Cristiano Ronaldo is the exception in Portugal's attack. His 100k in Runde 2 and 120k in Runde 5 make him a hold.
Germany's attackers and the Danish block are not sells yet. Their two good rounds come first. The time to sell Musiala, Adeyemi, Dorgu and Damsgaard is after Runde 3, before the Runde 4 away trips. The optimal teams solver will show you the exact swap once Runde 3 is played. More analysis is in the Nations Manager preview hub.
FAQ
Who should I captain in Nations Manager Runde 2?
Harry Kane is the top captain with 151k, doubled to 302k. England are 66% favourites away to Czechia, and he takes the penalties. Erling Haaland (141k) is the safer second choice.
Which nations have the best fixtures in Nations Manager Runde 2 to 4?
Spain have the best three-round program at 5.54 expected goals ([H]CRO → [H]CZE → [A]CRO). England have the best defensive run at 1.21 expected clean sheets. Czechia, Serbia and Croatia have the weakest programs.
Best differentials for Nations Manager Runde 2?
Nico O'Reilly (1.8% owned, 200k over three rounds), Kerem Akturkoglu (0.1% owned, 221k) and Crysencio Summerville (3.7% owned, 243k) are the best low-owned picks with strong programs.
Should I sell Ousmane Dembélé before Nations Manager Runde 2?
Yes. He projects only 70k in Runde 2 on about 61 minutes, and 203k over three rounds. Cheaper forwards like Summerville project more, and his 65k fee does not get smaller by waiting.
Who are the best budget picks for Nations Manager Runde 2?
Brian Brobbey, Patrick Dorgu and Mikkel Damsgaard give the most points per million in Runde 2. Mads Hermansen is the best-value goalkeeper. The Danish picks are two-round buys, because Denmark travel to Wales in Runde 4.
This preview was written by TheFantasyTool AI.