Nations Manager Runde 2: captain picks and best buys
Nations Manager Runde 2 preview: best buys, captain picks and differentials
Nations Manager Runde 2 has its deadline on Sunday 27 September at 18:00, and it opens three rounds packed into ten days. Runde 2 runs from 27 to 29 September, Runde 3 from 1 to 3 October and Runde 4 from 4 to 6 October, and then the Nations League stops until November. So the squad you set now is a squad for the whole October window, and every pick below is judged on Runde 2 to 4, not just this weekend. The biggest change is at the top of the price list: Kylian Mbappé, on 23.7% of teams, now projects no minutes in any of the three October rounds. Brian Brobbey (30.6% owned) is still missing from our Dutch predicted lineups. This preview covers who to buy, who to captain, the hidden gems and who to sell.
Every player's projection is on the Nations Manager player picks page, and the Nations Manager optimal teams solver builds the best eleven live for any window of rounds. Our Nations Manager Runde 1 preview covered the opening squad.
The programs: whose Runde 2 to 4 is worth owning
Spain have the best three-round run in the game at 6.03 expected goals and 1.11 expected clean sheets. Their program is [H]CRO → [H]CZE → [A]CRO, and the Croatia home game is the strongest fixture of Runde 2: 80% win probability, 2.67 expected goals and a 54% clean-sheet chance. The catch is the shape: the run gets harder every round, and the away leg in Croatia is the weakest of the three. That is why Spain's players top this round and then slide down the three-round rankings.
England have the best defensive program at 1.18 expected clean sheets from [A]CZE → [A]CRO → [H]CZE, with 5.38 expected goals. Their run holds up best: the two Czechia games bookend the trip to Croatia, and England host Croatia again in Runde 5. France ([A]BEL → [H]ITA → [H]BEL, 5.38) are level with England on expected goals, with Italy and Belgium at home in Runde 3 and 4. Germany ([H]GRE → [H]SER → [A]GRE, 5.32) and the Netherlands ([A]SER → [A]GRE → [H]SER, 5.24) each have two strong games and one weak one. Both weak games are away in Greece. The dip comes in Runde 4 for Germany and in Runde 3 for the Netherlands.
Denmark are the short-term story. [H]WAL → [H]POR → [A]WAL gives them two home games first, and Wales at home carries a 69% win probability and a 44% clean-sheet chance. Then comes the trip to Wales in Runde 4. That flips the Welsh program: after [A]DEN this weekend, Wales host Norway and then Denmark. Greece do the same after [A]GER. Those two nations are the Runde 3 targets. At the bottom, Czechia (2.82 xG), Serbia (2.98) and Croatia (3.17) have the three weakest programs, and every October game they play is against Spain, England, Germany or the Netherlands.
| Team | Runde 2 | Win probability | Expected goals | Clean sheet | Program | 3-round xG | 3-round CS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ESP | [H]CRO | 80% | 2.67 | 54% | [H]CRO → [H]CZE → [A]CRO | 6.03 | 1.11 |
| FRA | [A]BEL | 50% | 1.93 | 26% | [A]BEL → [H]ITA → [H]BEL | 5.38 | 0.90 |
| ENG | [A]CZE | 68% | 2.13 | 46% | [A]CZE → [A]CRO → [H]CZE | 5.38 | 1.18 |
| GER | [H]GRE | 67% | 2.42 | 36% | [H]GRE → [H]SER → [A]GRE | 5.32 | 0.91 |
| NED | [A]SER | 69% | 2.34 | 40% | [A]SER → [A]GRE → [H]SER | 5.24 | 0.96 |
| DEN | [H]WAL | 69% | 2.23 | 44% | [H]WAL → [H]POR → [A]WAL | 4.84 | 0.91 |
| POR | [A]NOR | 35% | 1.62 | 17% | [A]NOR → [A]DEN → [H]NOR | 4.59 | 0.67 |
| NOR | [H]POR | 41% | 1.75 | 20% | [H]POR → [A]WAL → [A]POR | 4.33 | 0.64 |
| GRE | [A]GER | 14% | 1.03 | 9% | [A]GER → [H]NED → [H]GER | 4.23 | 0.76 |
| ITA | [A]TUR | 36% | 1.43 | 24% | [A]TUR → [A]FRA → [H]TUR | 4.14 | 0.72 |
| TUR | [H]ITA | 37% | 1.43 | 24% | [H]ITA → [A]BEL → [A]ITA | 4.11 | 0.76 |
| WAL | [A]DEN | 11% | 0.81 | 11% | [A]DEN → [H]NOR → [H]DEN | 3.82 | 0.72 |
| BEL | [H]FRA | 26% | 1.35 | 15% | [H]FRA → [H]TUR → [A]FRA | 3.65 | 0.55 |
| CRO | [A]ESP | 6% | 0.61 | 7% | [A]ESP → [H]ENG → [H]ESP | 3.17 | 0.55 |
| SER | [H]NED | 12% | 0.91 | 10% | [H]NED → [A]GER → [A]NED | 2.98 | 0.42 |
| CZE | [H]ENG | 12% | 0.78 | 12% | [H]ENG → [A]ESP → [A]ENG | 2.82 | 0.42 |
All sixteen nations play once in each of Runde 2, 3 and 4, so every 3-round total covers three games. Kick-off times are on the Nations Manager schedule, and the bookmaker lines behind these numbers are on the market probabilities page.
Goalkeepers
Jordan Pickford (4.5m, ENG) is the keeper to own for the window. His program is [A]CZE → [A]CRO → [H]CZE, and it gives him 211k over the three rounds (82k → 57k → 73k), then 75k for the Croatia home game in Runde 5. There is no collapse anywhere in it, and only 4.4% of managers have him. Unai Simon (5.7m, ESP) tops Runde 2 with 97k for the Croatia home game and edges Pickford over three rounds, 215k to 211k. But he fades every round (97k → 67k → 51k over [H]CRO → [H]CZE → [A]CRO) and costs over a million more. If you want the best keeper for Runde 2 alone, it is Simon; if you are buying one and keeping him into November, buy Pickford.
Bart Verbruggen (4.5m, NED) follows with 197k over [A]SER → [A]GRE → [H]SER (84k → 42k → 70k). The Greece trip costs him, but both Serbia games are good. The value pick is Altay Bayindir (2.5m, TUR): 153k over [H]ITA → [A]BEL → [A]ITA (51k → 55k → 47k), and 74k in Runde 5. That is a flat keeper program near the bottom of the price range, and he is on only 1.5% of teams. Mads Hermansen now projects no minutes, so his owners should move him on this round.
Defenders
Denzel Dumfries (4.5m, NED) is the top defender over the window: 233k over [A]SER → [A]GRE → [H]SER, moving 110k → 40k → 82k. The Greece game is the weak week, but the two Serbia games more than make up for it, and only 7.9% of managers own him. Virgil van Dijk (5.0m, NED) does the same job for 209k (99k → 35k → 75k) if you prefer the centre-back.
Patrick Dorgu (3.0m, DEN) is still the best value in the position and the top defender this round at 113k against Wales, 37.9k per million. Over [H]WAL → [H]POR → [A]WAL he projects 220k (113k → 65k → 42k) at a price that barely touches the rest of your squad. 41.8% of managers own him, so he protects your rank rather than winning it. His numbers fall every round, so hold him through Runde 3 and plan to sell before the Runde 4 trip to Wales. If you want a second cheap Dane, Rasmus Kristensen (3.0m, DEN) projects 89k this round at 29.8k per million for a 30k fee, but he falls to 29k in Runde 4 ([H]WAL → [H]POR → [A]WAL), so treat him as a two-round rotation pick.
The hidden gem is Trent Alexander-Arnold (4.5m, ENG). He projects 87k → 55k → 61k over [A]CZE → [A]CRO → [H]CZE, 203k in total, and on 0.2% ownership almost nobody has him. It is a program with no collapse in it, on the team with the best clean-sheet run. Marc Guehi (4.5m, ENG), with 195k (77k → 50k → 68k), and Ezri Konsa (183k) are the other English options. Nico O'Reilly has dropped back: his projection now assumes about 64 minutes, and he sits at 172k over the window. For a cheap Dutch option, Jan Paul van Hecke (3.0m, NED) projects 84k → 24k → 56k over [A]SER → [A]GRE → [H]SER.
Two cheap defenders are for Runde 3, not this round. Konstantinos Mavropanos (3.1m, GRE) projects 11k → 56k → 57k over [A]GER → [H]NED → [H]GER, and Neco Williams (2.5m, WAL) projects 11k → 49k → 59k over [A]DEN → [H]NOR → [H]DEN. Both are poor buys against Germany and Denmark this weekend and good ones for the home games after, so bring them in next round.
Midfielders
Michael Olise (8.1m, FRA) is now the premium midfielder to buy. He projects 132k → 91k → 127k across [A]BEL → [H]ITA → [H]BEL, the best three-round total of any midfielder at 351k, and he produced 0.94 xG plus xA per 90 minutes across his ten matches before this window. With Kylian Mbappé projected out of all three October rounds, Olise is the French attacker to own. Jude Bellingham (6.5m, ENG) is the English alternative: 114k → 70k → 95k → 95k across [A]CZE → [A]CRO → [H]CZE → [H]CRO, 279k over the three rounds, and a Runde 5 number as strong as Runde 4. Bukayo Saka (6.0m, ENG) is the low-owned English option at 1.6%, with 247k over the same program.
The best value in the position is Mikkel Damsgaard (3.1m, DEN): 118k against Wales at 37.5k per million, the highest points per million of any midfielder this round. His program ([H]WAL → [H]POR → [A]WAL) runs 118k → 72k → 45k, the same Danish shape as Dorgu, so he is a hold through Runde 3. Tijjani Reijnders (5.0m, NED) is the Dutch differential at 1.5% owned, with 219k over [A]SER → [A]GRE → [H]SER (105k → 36k → 78k). Arda Güler (3.5m, TUR) is the steady hold: 70k → 71k → 58k → 96k over [H]ITA → [A]BEL → [A]ITA → [H]BEL barely moves, and the Runde 5 number is his best.
Germany's midfield is a two-round buy. Joshua Kimmich (5.5m, GER) runs 101k → 59k → 27k over [H]GRE → [H]SER → [A]GRE, and Karim Adeyemi (4.1m, GER) runs 87k → 72k → 34k. Both drop sharply for the trip to Greece, so buy for the two home games and plan to sell before Runde 4. Adeyemi's projection assumes about 61 minutes, and Kevin Schade is down to about 41, so check the Nations Manager predicted lineups before the deadline.
Three picks are for next round, not this one. Daniel James (3.0m, WAL) projects 27k → 77k → 86k over [A]DEN → [H]NOR → [H]DEN at 0.1% ownership, and Brennan Johnson (3.0m, WAL) has the same shape (23k → 68k → 79k). Bring them in for Runde 3, when Wales host Norway and then Denmark. Christos Tzolis (3.7m, GRE) is on 19.9% of teams and projects only 40k in Germany, then 76k and 77k in Greece's two home games ([A]GER → [H]NED → [H]GER). Owners should hold him through the weak week rather than sell into it.
Forwards
Harry Kane (8.6m, ENG) is the forward to build around. He tops Runde 2 at 150k in Czechia and runs 150k → 92k → 127k → 127k across [A]CZE → [A]CRO → [H]CZE → [H]CRO. His three-round total of 369k is the highest in the game, 18k clear of anyone else. Kane takes England's penalties and produced 0.82 xG plus xA per 90 across his ten matches before this window. At 16.1% ownership he is still a differential next to Haaland (47.0%).
Erling Haaland (9.9m, NOR) is the hold: 142k → 86k → 94k over [H]POR → [A]WAL → [A]POR, 323k over the window, then 148k in Runde 5 at home to Wales, the best single-round number in the game after this weekend. Ousmane Dembélé (6.6m, FRA) is the forward buy on the French program. He runs 122k → 78k → 117k over [A]BEL → [H]ITA → [H]BEL for 318k, third among forwards, and he produced 1.03 xG plus xA per 90 across his ten matches before this window. Cristiano Ronaldo (15.8% owned) is a hold: 100k → 65k → 89k → 123k, with his best number in Runde 5.
Spain's pair is front-loaded. Lamine Yamal (9.2m, ESP) (149k → 67k → 71k) and Mikel Oyarzabal (8.2m, ESP) (143k → 60k → 67k) are the second- and third-best players this round, but both fall away after the Croatia home game in [H]CRO → [H]CZE → [A]CRO. This is where the round and the window disagree: Yamal is only 1k behind Kane this weekend, while Kane has 82k more over the three rounds. If you are buying one and keeping him, buy Kane. The cheaper Spanish route is Nico Williams (4.5m, ESP): 121k this round at 26.7k per million, but the same fade applies (121k → 51k → 57k), so he is a one-round rotation pick with a sell-again date of Runde 3.
The hidden gems are cheap. Crysencio Summerville (4.0m, NED) is the natural Brobbey replacement. He projects 125k → 45k → 93k over [A]SER → [A]GRE → [H]SER at 5.1% ownership, and he produced 0.88 xG plus xA per 90 across his ten matches before this window. Kerem Akturkoglu (3.0m, TUR) has the flattest program of the cheap forwards: 86k → 88k → 70k → 100k over [H]ITA → [A]BEL → [A]ITA → [H]BEL, with penalty duty, at 0.3% ownership. Younes Ebnoutalib (3.5m, GER) is Germany's cheap two-round forward at 100k → 87k → 43k, but his projection assumes only about 58 minutes, so he is a calculated risk. For a Runde 3 move, Vangelis Pavlidis (3.6m, GRE) projects only 29k in Germany, then 84k and 86k in Greece's two home games ([A]GER → [H]NED → [H]GER). Buy him for Runde 3, not Runde 2.
| Player | Nation | Price | Owned | Runde 2 → 3 → 4 | 3-round xP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harry Kane | ENG | 8.6m | 16.1% | 150k → 92k → 127k | 369k |
| Michael Olise | FRA | 8.1m | 20.3% | 132k → 91k → 127k | 351k |
| Erling Haaland | NOR | 9.9m | 47.0% | 142k → 86k → 94k | 323k |
| Ousmane Dembélé | FRA | 6.6m | 25.9% | 122k → 78k → 117k | 318k |
| Lamine Yamal | ESP | 9.2m | 9.4% | 149k → 67k → 71k | 287k |
| Jude Bellingham | ENG | 6.5m | 12.4% | 114k → 70k → 95k | 279k |
| Mikel Oyarzabal | ESP | 8.2m | 3.9% | 143k → 60k → 67k | 271k |
| Crysencio Summerville | NED | 4.0m | 5.1% | 125k → 45k → 93k | 264k |
| Kerem Akturkoglu | TUR | 3.0m | 0.3% | 86k → 88k → 70k | 245k |
| Mikkel Damsgaard | DEN | 3.1m | 19.2% | 118k → 72k → 45k | 235k |
| Denzel Dumfries | NED | 4.5m | 7.9% | 110k → 40k → 82k | 233k |
| Patrick Dorgu | DEN | 3.0m | 41.8% | 113k → 65k → 42k | 220k |
| Jordan Pickford | ENG | 4.5m | 4.4% | 82k → 57k → 73k | 211k |
| Trent Alexander-Arnold | ENG | 4.5m | 0.2% | 87k → 55k → 61k | 203k |
| Altay Bayindir | TUR | 2.5m | 1.5% | 51k → 55k → 47k | 153k |
Nations Manager Runde 2 captain (kaptajn)
Harry Kane (8.6m, ENG) is the Runde 2 captain at 150k, doubled to 300k. It is close at the top: Lamine Yamal (149k), Mikel Oyarzabal (143k), Erling Haaland (142k) and Michael Olise (132k) follow. Kane gets the nod because England are 68% favourites in Czechia, he is on penalties, and his [A]CZE → [A]CRO → [H]CZE program brings the armband back to him in Runde 3 and 4. Yamal is the alternative if you already own him.
Plan the armband across the window, not just this weekend. Runde 3 is flat at the top: Kane (92k), Olise (91k), Akturkoglu (88k) and Haaland (86k) are within 6k of each other. In Runde 4, Olise and Kane are joint top on 127k, with Ousmane Dembélé next at 117k. In Runde 5, Haaland leads at 148k. Owning Kane plus one of Olise or Haaland gives you a strong captain in every round through November.
Who to sell before Nations Manager Runde 2
Kylian Mbappé (10.7m, FRA) is the biggest sale, and it has to happen this round. He is on 23.7% of teams, and he projects no minutes in Runde 2, 3 or 4, which leaves him on -5k in each of them. France's [A]BEL → [H]ITA → [H]BEL is one of the best programs in the game, so the fixtures are not the problem; he simply has no minutes to score from until Runde 5, where he projects 40k. The 107k fee is the same now or later, and every round you wait is a dead squad spot. His 10.7m funds Olise or Ousmane Dembélé on the same French program with change to spare.
Brian Brobbey (3.0m, NED) is the second sale that cannot wait. He is still on 30.6% of teams and still projects 0k in every round from Runde 2 to Runde 6, because he is not in any of our Dutch predicted lineups. The Netherlands' [A]SER → [A]GRE → [H]SER holds two of the best games of the window, and Summerville plays it for one million more. Bruno Fernandes (7.9% owned) is in a similar spot: no projected minutes in Runde 2 and only 11k and 32k after it, so there is no reason to carry his 7.5m through October.
Portugal's defence is the next block to move, and the timing is the argument. Their program is [A]NOR → [A]DEN → [H]NOR, with both away games first and only a 17% clean-sheet chance in Norway. Diogo Costa (4.6m, POR), owned by 23.1%, projects 48k → 49k → 58k. Against Pickford's 82k → 57k → 73k, that is a clear upgrade for a 46k fee. Renato Veiga (3.6m, POR) is the sharper case: 19.2% own him, but he projects 26k → 34k → 45k on about 68 minutes. Nuno Mendes (38k → 40k → 55k) and Joao Cancelo (39k → 38k → 48k) follow the same pattern. Mendes does rise to 63k in Runde 5, so he can come back for November.
Oscar Bobb (3.2m, NOR) is the sell-into-a-decent-week case. [H]POR is his best game of the window at 55k. That is not a bad fixture, but [A]WAL and [A]POR follow, and he drops to 34k and 35k. Sell now rather than out of those two, for a 32k fee. The Croatian block is the simplest call. Martin Baturina (14.8% owned) projects 0k in Spain and Luka Vuskovic (17.9%) projects -6k. Croatia's [A]ESP → [H]ENG → [H]ESP is one of the three weakest programs in the game, so there is no good week to wait for.
Germany's midfielders and the Danish block are not sells yet, because their two good rounds come first. The time to sell Kimmich, Adeyemi, Dorgu and Damsgaard is after Runde 3, before the Runde 4 away trips, so you can wait a round on those. The optimal teams solver shows the exact swap for any window of rounds. More analysis is in the Nations Manager preview hub.
FAQ
Who should I captain in Nations Manager Runde 2?
Harry Kane is the top captain with 150k, doubled to 300k. England are 68% favourites away to Czechia, and he takes the penalties. Lamine Yamal (149k) and Mikel Oyarzabal (143k) are the next options.
Should I sell Kylian Mbappé before Nations Manager Runde 2?
Yes. Kylian Mbappé projects no minutes in Runde 2, 3 or 4 and only returns in Runde 5. Michael Olise (351k over three rounds) and Ousmane Dembélé (318k) play the same French program.
Which nations have the best fixtures in Nations Manager Runde 2 to 4?
Spain have the best three-round program at 6.03 expected goals ([H]CRO → [H]CZE → [A]CRO). England have the best defensive run at 1.18 expected clean sheets. Czechia, Serbia and Croatia have the weakest programs, and Greece and Wales turn good from Runde 3.
Best differentials for Nations Manager Runde 2?
Trent Alexander-Arnold (0.2% owned, 203k over three rounds), Kerem Akturkoglu (0.3%, 245k) and Crysencio Summerville (5.1%, 264k) are the best low-owned picks with strong programs. Bukayo Saka (1.6%) is the premium differential at 247k.
Who are the best budget picks for Nations Manager Runde 2?
Patrick Dorgu (37.9k per million) and Mikkel Damsgaard (37.5k per million) give the most points per million in Runde 2, but both are two-round buys because Denmark travel to Wales in Runde 4. Altay Bayindir is the best-value goalkeeper at 153k over three rounds.
This preview was written by TheFantasyTool AI.