Nations Manager Runde 1: best buys and captain picks

Nations Manager Runde 1 preview: best buys, captain picks and differentials

Nations Manager 2026 opens on 24 September, and Runde 1 of the UEFA Nations League league phase is the most lopsided round of the whole six-round game. One fixture towers over the other seven, the model has a clear top-scoring player, and the cheap end of the pool is unusually strong. This preview covers the best buys by position, the ranked captain picks, the differentials worth a chance, and the names whose programme collapses the moment Runde 1 ends.

All numbers below are our model's predicted points (pP) for the round, pulled on 13 September. You can follow the live versions on the Nations Manager player picks and Nations Manager schedule pages.

Runde 1 fixtures: Portugal tower over the round

Portugal at home to Wales is the best fixture in the round on every measure the model tracks: the highest win probability, the highest expected goals and the highest clean sheet chance. Wales sit at the opposite pole on a 6% win probability and 0.58 expected goals, the weakest attacking outlook of all 16 teams. Every team plays once in Runde 1, so there are no blanks to work around.

France travel to Turkiye as heavy favourites on a 62% win probability and 2.18 expected goals, and Norway host Denmark in the round's most attractive Scandinavian tie. The two genuine coin-flips are Netherlands - Germany and Italy - Belgium, which are the games to be light on defensively. Check the predicted lineups for Nations Manager before the deadline, because an international window moves lineups late, and the Nations Manager market probabilities page shows the bookmaker view behind these numbers.

Best goalkeepers for Runde 1

Diogo Costa (4.5m, Portugal) is the standout goalkeeper of the round and it is not close: 100k against the next-best keeper's 73k. Portugal's 56% clean sheet chance is the highest in Runde 1, and a keeper behind the best defence in the round is the cheapest way to buy into that fixture.

Odisseas Vlachodimos (3.0m, Greece) is the value alternative from the bottom of the price range. He returns 52k in Runde 1, but his six-round weighted score of 200 is the best points-per-million of any goalkeeper in the game. Greece's programme improves sharply later on, so he is a keeper you can buy once and forget. Ørjan Håskjold Nyland (4.5m, Norway) at 65k is the compromise if you want a nailed starter in a mid-table fixture.

Best defenders for Runde 1

The Portugal defence is the single biggest edge in Runde 1, and with a maximum of four players allowed from one country you can build a real block around it. The question is which Portuguese defender, because the model separates them by minutes rather than by quality.

Nuno Mendes (5.0m, Portugal) is the safest of them: 92k on 85 expected minutes and a 0.98 starter factor, the highest of any Portugal defender. Joao Cancelo (4.5m, Portugal) returns more on paper at 105k, but his starter factor is 0.70, so he carries real rotation risk in a game Portugal are expected to control comfortably. Renato Veiga (3.5m, Portugal) at 98k from 3.5m is the value route into the same clean sheet.

Outside Portugal, Denzel Dumfries (4.5m, Netherlands) is the best defender in the round at 73k and offers more attacking upside than most, on 0.12 expected goals and 0.14 expected assists from wing-back. Konstantinos Mavropanos (3.0m, Greece) is the budget defender to build around: 45k in Runde 1 from 3.0m, with a six-round weighted score of 173 that beats several defenders at twice the price. Julian Ryerson (4.0m, Norway) at 53k is the pick if you prefer a nailed full-back, since his 0.94 starter factor is among the most reliable in the pool.

Best midfielders for Runde 1

Bruno Fernandes (7.5m, Portugal) is the clear number one midfielder at 136k, nearly 50k clear of the next name. He is nailed on a 0.96 starter factor and 83 expected minutes, he takes a share of Portugal penalties, and he is in the best fixture of the round. His 0.30 expected goals plus 0.33 expected assists is the strongest combined attacking return of any midfielder in Runde 1.

Michael Olise (8.0m, France) is the premium alternative at 88k, while Vitinha (5.5m, Portugal) (79k) and Pedro Neto (5.0m, Portugal) (73k) are cheaper ways to take Portugal midfield minutes without paying the Bruno Fernandes price. Martin Ødegaard (5.5m, Norway) at 77k is the pick for anyone who wants a Norway route into the Denmark game.

The budget midfielder to own is Christos Tzolis (3.5m, Greece). He takes every Greece penalty, he starts on a 0.89 starter factor, and at 3.5m he has the best six-round weighted points-per-million of any midfielder in the game. Giorgos Masouras (3.0m, Greece) at 64k is the cheapest route into the same Greece attack.

Best forwards for Runde 1

Cristiano Ronaldo (7.5m, Portugal) is the highest-projected player in the entire game for Runde 1 at 215k, on 0.93 expected goals, an 88% share of Portugal penalties and the round's softest opponent. No other player in any position comes within 40k of him.

Erling Haaland (9.5m, Norway) is second at 171k and is the better long-term hold: his six-round weighted score of 500 is the highest in the game, ahead of Ronaldo's 487, because Norway's programme stays strong while Portugal's dips. Kylian Mbappé (10.5m, France) at 143k completes the premium trio, with an 84% penalty share of his own.

At the value end, Brian Brobbey (3.0m, Netherlands) is the best cheap forward in the round at 96k from 3.0m. He leads the Netherlands line against Germany and returns more than forwards costing three times as much. Vangelis Pavlidis (3.5m, Greece) is the differential version of the same idea: 82k in Runde 1 and the best six-round points-per-million of any forward, though a 0.64 starter factor means he is not nailed. Francesco Pio Esposito (4.5m, Italy) at 70k is the mid-price option if you want Italy coverage.

Captain picks for Nations Manager Runde 1

The captain (kaptajn) scores double in Nations Manager, so this is the single biggest decision of the round.

1. Cristiano Ronaldo — 215k, doubling to roughly 430k. He is the top-projected player in the game, he is on penalties, and he faces the weakest defence in the round. This is as close to a consensus captain as Runde 1 offers.
2. Erling Haaland — 171k. The safer floor of the two, on a 0.99 starter factor against Ronaldo's 0.92, and Norway at home to Denmark is a fixture he takes the penalties in too.
3. Kylian Mbappé — 143k away at Turkiye. The differential captain if you want to move off the two obvious names.

Bruno Fernandes (7.5m, Portugal) at 136k is the fourth name in the conversation and the cheapest of the realistic captain options. Think about captaincy across all six rounds rather than one week: Haaland is the best captain in Runde 2 as well on 167k, which is a strong argument for owning him even in the round where Ronaldo outscores him. Our optimal teams for Nations Manager page solves the full squad including the captain choice live.

You can sort every player by predicted points for the round on the Nations Manager player picks page before you commit to a captain.

Hidden gems and differentials for Runde 1

Nations Manager is a brand new game, so there is no established template to break from. That makes the cheap end of the pool the real differentiator: the premiums pick themselves, and rank is won in the six or seven squad places after them.

• Christos Tzolis (3.5m, Greece) — 61k in Runde 1, but the trajectory is the point: 61k → 59k → 72k → 76k. He takes every Greece penalty and Greece's fixtures improve through the set.
• Arda Güler (3.5m, Turkiye) — only 38k in Runde 1, but he jumps to 80k in Runde 2 at home to Italy, and a 0.99 starter factor is as nailed as a 3.5m midfielder gets.
• Brian Brobbey (3.0m, Netherlands) — 96k from 3.0m as the focal point of the Netherlands attack.
• Christian Eriksen (3.5m, Denmark) — 44k, and at 3.5m the cheapest reliable route into a Denmark side that improves considerably after Runde 1.
• Odisseas Vlachodimos (3.0m, Greece) — the budget goalkeeper with the best six-round value in the game.

Who to avoid in Runde 1, and who to sell straight after

Avoid Wales entirely. A 6% win probability, an 8% clean sheet chance and 0.58 expected goals is the worst outlook of any team in the round, and no Wales player is worth a squad place in Runde 1.

The more important point is what comes next. The Portugal defence is a one-round trade, not an investment. Portugal travel to Norway in Runde 2 on a 26% win probability and a 19% clean sheet chance, then to Denmark in Runde 3. The drop-off is severe:

• Joao Cancelo (4.5m, Portugal): 105k → 17k → 1k
• Renato Veiga (3.5m, Portugal): 98k → 19k → 29k
• Nuno Mendes (5.0m, Portugal): 92k → 32k → 24k
• Ruben Dias (4.5m, Portugal): 85k → 18k → 24k

Because a transfer costs 1% of the player's value, moving a 3.5m defender out after Runde 1 costs about 35k, which is trivial against the difference between 98k and 19k. Buy the Portugal defence for the opener, then rotate out. Bruno Fernandes is the exception among the Portuguese: he holds his value across the whole set because his returns are attacking rather than clean-sheet based.

Joao Félix (5.0m, Portugal) is the other name to treat carefully. He is third in the game on Runde 1 points, but a 0.46 starter factor and 40 expected minutes make him a rotation risk rather than a nailed starter, so treat him as an upside punt rather than a core pick.

The full six-round programme for all 16 teams is on the Nations Manager schedule page.

Planning Runde 1 to Runde 6

Nations Manager runs for six rounds with eleven starters and no bench, so every squad place is a starting place. The three players leading the game on six-round weighted score are Erling Haaland (500), Cristiano Ronaldo (487) and Kylian Mbappé (412). Haaland leading despite Ronaldo winning Runde 1 is the clearest signal in the data about where to commit long term.

Greece are the team the model likes most across the full set relative to their prices, which is why Christos Tzolis, Konstantinos Mavropanos and Odisseas Vlachodimos all appear above. Portugal are the opposite shape: enormous in Runde 1, then middling until Runde 5 at home to Denmark. Plan the cheap half of your squad around Greece and the expensive half around Norway and France, and use Portugal as a Runde 1 spike.

Round-by-round numbers for every player are on the Nations Manager player picks page, and the rest of our coverage is in the Nations Manager preview hub. If you are new to the game, start with our Nations Manager guide.

FAQ

Who should I captain in Nations Manager Runde 1?

Cristiano Ronaldo is the captain pick for Runde 1 at 215k, which doubles to roughly 430k. He is the highest-projected player in the game, he takes 88% of Portugal's penalties, and Portugal at home to Wales is the best fixture of the round on win probability, expected goals and clean sheet chance. Erling Haaland (171k) is the safer-floor alternative and Kylian Mbappé (143k) the differential.

Which budget players are best in Nations Manager Runde 1?

Brian Brobbey at 3.0m (96k) is the best cheap forward, Christos Tzolis at 3.5m is the best budget midfielder on six-round value and takes every Greece penalty, and Odisseas Vlachodimos at 3.0m is the goalkeeper with the best points-per-million in the game. Konstantinos Mavropanos at 3.0m is the budget defender to build around.

Should I buy the Portugal defence for Nations Manager Runde 1?

Yes, but only for Runde 1. Portugal have a 56% clean sheet chance against Wales, the highest in the round, and Nuno Mendes (92k) is the most reliable of them on a 0.98 starter factor. Their programme then collapses: Portugal go to Norway in Runde 2 with a 19% clean sheet chance, and Ruben Dias drops from 85k to 18k. Sell after the opener.

Is Erling Haaland or Cristiano Ronaldo the better pick in Nations Manager?

Ronaldo scores more in Runde 1, on 215k against 171k, but Haaland is the better pick across the six rounds: his weighted six-round score of 500 leads the entire game, ahead of Ronaldo's 487, because Norway's fixtures hold up while Portugal's dip in Runde 2 and Runde 3.

How many players can I have from one country in Nations Manager?

Four. That cap matters in Runde 1 because Portugal have comfortably the best fixture, so a maximum Portuguese block is a genuine strategy: Cristiano Ronaldo, Bruno Fernandes, Nuno Mendes and one more is a legal and aggressive way to attack the opening round.

This preview was written by TheFantasyTool AI.