Nations Manager Runde 1: best buys and captain picks
Nations Manager Runde 1 preview: captain picks, best buys and differentials
Nations Manager Runde 1 opens the UEFA Nations League A campaign with eight games between Thursday 24 and Saturday 26 September, and all sixteen teams play. It is not a round to judge on its own. Runde 2 follows within days and Runde 3 a few days after that, so the squad you pick now has to cover three rounds. The four big attacks split cleanly. Portugal have the fixture of the round and then two away trips. France start with a winnable away game and stay strong. Germany and Spain open with the hardest games and then have the best runs in the game. This preview covers who to buy, who to captain, the hidden gems and who to avoid, based on the next three rounds rather than just the first one.
The full xP table for every player is on the Nations Manager player picks page, and the Nations Manager optimal teams solver builds the best squad live for any window of rounds. If you are new to the game, start with our Nations Manager 2026 guide.
The programs: whose next three rounds are worth owning
Germany have the best three-round attack in the game at 5.85 expected goals, but they get there the hard way. Their program is [A]NED → [H]GRE → [H]SER. The trip to the Netherlands carries a 40% win probability, and the two home games after it are what you are buying. France ([A]TUR → [A]BEL → [H]ITA) are close behind at 5.72, and their first game is the easiest of the three. Spain's [A]ENG → [H]CRO → [H]CZE is the best defensive run in the game at 1.14 expected clean sheets. Portugal are the outlier. [H]WAL is the best single fixture of Runde 1 by a distance, with an 82% win probability, 2.85 expected goals and a 53% clean-sheet chance. After that come [A]NOR and [A]DEN, and Portugal only come home again in Runde 4 and 5 ([H]NOR → [H]DEN).
| Team | Runde 1 | Win probability | Expected goals | Clean sheet | Program | 3-round xG | 3-round CS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GER | [A]NED | 40% | 1.76 | 19% | [A]NED → [H]GRE → [H]SER | 5.85 | 1.01 |
| FRA | [A]TUR | 67% | 2.39 | 36% | [A]TUR → [A]BEL → [H]ITA | 5.72 | 0.98 |
| POR | [H]WAL | 82% | 2.85 | 53% | [H]WAL → [A]NOR → [A]DEN | 5.66 | 1.00 |
| ESP | [A]ENG | 39% | 1.43 | 28% | [A]ENG → [H]CRO → [H]CZE | 5.58 | 1.14 |
| NOR | [H]DEN | 54% | 1.94 | 30% | [H]DEN → [H]POR → [A]WAL | 4.66 | 0.80 |
| ENG | [H]ESP | 33% | 1.29 | 24% | [H]ESP → [A]CZE → [A]CRO | 4.63 | 1.02 |
| NED | [H]GER | 36% | 1.67 | 17% | [H]GER → [A]SER → [A]GRE | 4.54 | 0.80 |
| DEN | [A]NOR | 23% | 1.20 | 14% | [A]NOR → [H]WAL → [H]POR | 4.41 | 0.84 |
| ITA | [H]BEL | 43% | 1.54 | 28% | [H]BEL → [A]TUR → [A]FRA | 4.08 | 0.77 |
| BEL | [A]ITA | 30% | 1.26 | 22% | [A]ITA → [H]FRA → [H]TUR | 3.65 | 0.67 |
| TUR | [H]FRA | 14% | 1.03 | 9% | [H]FRA → [H]ITA → [A]BEL | 3.59 | 0.64 |
| GRE | [A]SER | 37% | 1.21 | 32% | [A]SER → [A]GER → [H]NED | 3.55 | 0.77 |
| CRO | [A]CZE | 45% | 1.61 | 29% | [A]CZE → [A]ESP → [H]ENG | 3.37 | 0.66 |
| CZE | [H]CRO | 29% | 1.25 | 20% | [H]CRO → [H]ENG → [A]ESP | 3.10 | 0.48 |
| SER | [H]GRE | 33% | 1.14 | 30% | [H]GRE → [H]NED → [A]GER | 3.00 | 0.63 |
| WAL | [A]POR | 5% | 0.63 | 6% | [A]POR → [A]DEN → [H]NOR | 2.78 | 0.51 |
That gives three ways to build. Portugal-heavy squads win Runde 1 and give some of it back over the next two rounds. Squads built on Germany and Spain lose ground in Runde 1 and should overtake from Runde 2. France sit in between and are the easiest block to hold. Italy (4.08) are a team to go light on, and Denmark (4.41) are only worth it for their cheap players, whose home games come in Runde 2 and 3. Wales have the weakest attacking run in the game at 2.78 expected goals, and Czechia the weakest defensive run at 0.48 expected clean sheets. Kick-off times and every later round are on the Nations Manager schedule.
Goalkeepers
Diogo Costa (4.5m, POR) is the pick with a program of [H]WAL → [A]NOR → [A]DEN. He projects 101k in Runde 1, and no other keeper reaches 77k. The two away games drop him to 51k in each, but Portugal come home in Runde 4 and 5, so he still has the best weighted six-round score of any goalkeeper (244k). This is the one position where the Portugal buy is also a hold.
Unai Simon (5.5m, ESP) ranks the other way round. He scores only 54k at Wembley, but [A]ENG → [H]CRO → [H]CZE gives him 54k → 91k → 69k, the best three-round total of any keeper at 214k, behind the best clean-sheet run in the game. If you want to pick a keeper once and leave him, choose between these two. The differential is Marc-Andre ter Stegen (5.0m, GER), who is now the projected German starter. His [A]NED → [H]GRE → [H]SER goes 50k → 84k → 69k for 202k, almost Simon's total at 0.5m less, and only 0.2% of managers own him. Mike Maignan (5.0m, FRA) is the steadier middle option at 76k → 61k → 59k (196k) over [A]TUR → [A]BEL → [H]ITA.
Defenders
Nuno Mendes (5.0m, POR) is the Runde 1 pick at 119k, the best score of any defender, over [H]WAL → [A]NOR → [A]DEN. He drops to 48k and 45k after that, but his 0.15 expected assists against Wales and Portugal's home games in Runde 4 and 5 (62k and 71k) still give him the best three-round total (212k) and the best weighted six-round score (257k) of any defender. He is the Portugal defender to keep.
Denzel Dumfries (4.5m, NED) is the other long hold. His [H]GER → [A]SER → [A]GRE reads 61k → 91k → 39k, and NED's [H]SER → [H]GRE in Runde 4 and 5 lift him to 81k and 54k, a weighted 231k. Here the round and the horizon disagree: Joao Cancelo (4.5m, POR) out-scores him by 52k in Runde 1 (113k), but the two are level over three rounds (193k against 192k) and Dumfries is 19k ahead on the weighted six-round score. If you are buying a second attacking full-back and keeping him, buy Dumfries.
Patrick Dorgu (3.0m, DEN) is the budget defender. 27.3% of managers already own him, and his 41k → 85k → 55k across [A]NOR → [H]WAL → [H]POR gives 181k for three rounds at the lowest price in the position. Runde 1 is his weakest round, so the case for him is Runde 2. For a second Portuguese defender, Ruben Dias (4.5m, POR) scores 99k at 88 expected minutes over the same [H]WAL → [A]NOR → [A]DEN and is owned by 1.9%. Nico Schlotterbeck (4.0m, GER) is the German option at 45k → 80k → 64k (188k) over [A]NED → [H]GRE → [H]SER. The differential is Nico O'Reilly (4.0m, ENG), owned by 2.2%. His [H]ESP → [A]CZE → [A]CRO goes 42k → 81k → 47k, and ENG's [H]CZE → [H]CRO in Runde 4 and 5 (70k each) lift his weighted score to 210k.
Midfielders
Michael Olise (8.0m, FRA) now has the best three-round total of any midfielder at 283k: 125k → 87k → 72k over [A]TUR → [A]BEL → [H]ITA, with 0.43 expected assists in Runde 1. Bruno Fernandes (7.5m, POR) is ahead of him in Runde 1 at 152k, then falls to 66k and 58k over [A]NOR → [A]DEN. The Portugal home run in Runde 4 and 5 gives Bruno the best weighted score in the position (331k against Olise's 325k), and he is on Portugal's penalties. Both are keepers for the whole window, not one-round buys.
The hidden gem is Jamal Musiala (6.5m, GER). 2.4% of managers own him, and his [A]NED → [H]GRE → [H]SER goes 78k → 111k → 81k. That 270k is within 5k of Bruno's three-round total at 1.0m less, and his Runde 1 score is respectable, so buying him before the good run starts costs you little. Kevin Schade (3.5m, GER) is the budget route into the same program at 83k → 72k → 75k (230k), and Karim Adeyemi (4.0m, GER) is almost identical at 86k → 73k → 68k (228k). Both are owned by under 4%. Treat them as three-round holds: Schade's projection drops to 10k–20k from Runde 4, so plan to sell him after Runde 3.
Denmark offer two more budget options behind Dorgu's program ([A]NOR → [H]WAL → [H]POR): Gustav Isaksen (3.5m, DEN) at 49k → 91k → 61k (201k) and Mikkel Damsgaard (3.0m, DEN) at 42k → 78k → 54k. Both are weak in Runde 1 and strong in Runde 2. Jude Bellingham (6.5m, ENG) is the one to plan around rather than start with: 65k at [H]ESP, then 118k at [A]CZE, and 93k and 91k in England's home games in Runde 4 and 5. For a one-round Portugal play, Pedro Neto (5.0m) projects 125k against Wales but only 38k and 41k after it.
Forwards
Kylian Mbappé (10.5m, FRA) and Erling Haaland (9.5m, NOR) have the two best three-round totals in the game at 410k and 369k. Mbappé goes 183k → 127k → 100k over [A]TUR → [A]BEL → [H]ITA with 0.78 expected goals in Runde 1. Haaland goes 164k → 116k → 89k over [H]DEN → [H]POR → [A]WAL, and 142k at [H]WAL in Runde 5. Both take their team's penalties and both project 84 minutes. Most managers own one of them (31.2% and 43.6%), and the real choice is whether you can fit both.
Cristiano Ronaldo (7.5m, POR) projects 158k against Wales, the third-best Runde 1 score in the game, and takes Portugal's penalties. His [H]WAL → [A]NOR → [A]DEN drops to 85k and 59k, a three-round total of 302k. Here the round and the horizon disagree again: Mikel Oyarzabal (8.0m, ESP) is 81k behind in Runde 1 but has 310k over three rounds ([A]ENG → [H]CRO → [H]CZE goes 77k → 141k → 92k), is also on penalties and is owned by just 3.5%. Over six rounds Ronaldo comes back ahead (367k against 329k weighted) thanks to [H]DEN in Runde 5. If Portugal is your Runde 1 core, Ronaldo is the one; if you are building for Runde 2, Oyarzabal is the better buy.
Harry Kane (8.5m, ENG) and Lamine Yamal (9.0m, ESP) are the Runde 2 forwards. Kane goes 89k → 155k → 83k over [H]ESP → [A]CZE → [A]CRO, and England's [H]CZE → [H]CRO in Runde 4 and 5 give him the third-best weighted score of any player (399k). Yamal goes 77k → 138k → 88k over [A]ENG → [H]CRO → [H]CZE. Ousmane Dembélé (6.5m, FRA) is now a solid pick at 128k → 87k → 70k (285k) on 77 expected minutes, and he is on France's penalty list. Kai Havertz (8.0m, GER) is the German differential at 2.4%, with 74k → 113k → 77k over [A]NED → [H]GRE → [H]SER.
For budget forwards, Brian Brobbey (3.0m, NED) gives the best points per million of any forward in Runde 1, and he goes 96k → 118k → 55k over [H]GER → [A]SER → [A]GRE with 105k at [H]SER in Runde 4. He is owned by 37.6%, so he is protection rather than a differential. The low-owned option is Kerem Akturkoglu (3.0m, TUR): 0.2% ownership and a rising 43k → 74k → 77k over [H]FRA → [H]ITA → [A]BEL, then 91k at [H]BEL in Runde 5. Joao Félix (5.0m, POR) is a one-round buy only: 150k against Wales, then 42k and 53k over [A]NOR → [A]DEN, so buy him for Runde 1 and sell again before Runde 2.
Captaincy for Runde 1
Kylian Mbappé (10.5m, FRA) is the captain. His 183k at Turkiye doubles to a 366k ceiling, he takes France's penalties, and his 0.78 expected goals come in France's 2.39 expected-goal fixture. Erling Haaland (164k against [H]DEN) is the closest alternative, and Cristiano Ronaldo (158k against [H]WAL) is third, with Bruno Fernandes (152k) and Joao Félix (150k) just behind. The gap between Mbappé and Haaland is 19k, so captaining whichever of the two you own is fine.
Plan the captaincy across rounds. In Runde 2 the model's top captains are Harry Kane (155k), Mikel Oyarzabal (141k) and Lamine Yamal (138k), ahead of Mbappé (127k). In Runde 3 Mbappé (100k) is back on top, ahead of Oyarzabal (92k) and Haaland (89k). Mbappé is in the top four captain options in all three rounds, which is the strongest reason to own him from the start.
Who to avoid
Avoid Désiré Doué (5.0m, FRA) as a starting pick. He is a popular early choice at 7.9% ownership, but he projects only 57 expected minutes, and his 81k → 57k → 43k over [A]TUR → [A]BEL → [H]ITA gives 180k over three rounds. Ousmane Dembélé plays in the same French attack for 1.5m more and projects 285k. France's program is fine; the problem is Doué's minutes, not his fixtures.
Leave out Oscar Bobb (3.0m, NOR). He is owned by 16.6% as a cheap Norway route, but [H]DEN → [H]POR → [A]WAL gives him only 67k → 35k → 35k (137k), and he drops to 10k–20k in Runde 4 to 6. Kevin Schade costs 0.5m more and projects 230k over the same three rounds. Two more early names are no longer worth the slot: Serge Gnabry now projects just 10 expected minutes in Runde 1, and Alexander Nübel is not projected to start for Germany, so Marc-Andre ter Stegen is the German keeper to consider instead.
Leave out Mads Hermansen (3.5m, DEN) for Runde 1. He is owned by 9.8%, but [A]NOR is a 14% clean-sheet chance and he projects just 35k. His program improves after that ([H]WAL → [H]POR, 76k and 52k), so he is a buy from Runde 2 rather than a starting pick. Gianluigi Donnarumma (9.2% ownership) is the opposite case: Italy's [H]BEL → [A]TUR → [A]FRA gives him 57k → 54k → 42k, and his run gets worse each round.
Renato Veiga (15.8% ownership) is the one to pick for Runde 1 only. 98k against Wales at 88 expected minutes is a good return for 3.5m, so he earns his place in a starting squad. After that he drops to 28k and 34k over [A]NOR → [A]DEN, so plan to sell him straight after the Wales game. The same applies to Joao Félix and Pedro Neto.
Check the Nations Manager predicted lineups before the deadline. Nations League squads change late, and the bookmaker lines behind these numbers are on the Nations Manager market probabilities page. Every round's preview is collected in the Nations Manager preview hub.
FAQ
Who should I captain in Nations Manager Runde 1?
Kylian Mbappé is the top captain with 183k projected at Turkiye, the best score of any player this round, and he takes France's penalties. Erling Haaland (164k against Denmark) and Cristiano Ronaldo (158k against Wales) are the closest alternatives.
Which budget defenders are best for Nations Manager Runde 1?
Patrick Dorgu at 3.0m is the cheapest strong option with 181k over [A]NOR → [H]WAL → [H]POR. Renato Veiga at 3.5m projects 98k against Wales but is a one-round pick. Nico O'Reilly at 4.0m is the low-ownership alternative at 171k.
Is Désiré Doué worth picking for Nations Manager Runde 1?
No. Désiré Doué projects 180k over the first three rounds on about 57 expected minutes. Ousmane Dembélé is 1.5m more in the same French attack and projects 285k.
What are the best differentials for Nations Manager Runde 1?
Jamal Musiala (2.4% owned, 270k over three rounds), Mikel Oyarzabal (3.5%, 310k), Marc-Andre ter Stegen (0.2%, 202k) and Kerem Akturkoglu (0.2%, 3.0m, 194k) are the strongest low-ownership picks. Most of them have their best round after Runde 1.
Which Portugal players should I buy for Nations Manager Runde 1?
Cristiano Ronaldo, Bruno Fernandes, Nuno Mendes and Diogo Costa are the Portugal picks worth keeping beyond Runde 1, because Portugal come home again in Runde 4 and 5. Joao Félix, Pedro Neto and Renato Veiga are strongest in Runde 1 alone.
This preview was written by TheFantasyTool AI.