Liga Manager Runde 12: captain picks and best buys
Liga Manager Runde 12 preview: best buys, captain picks and differentials
Liga Manager Runde 12 is the first round after the international break, and the long gap before the deadline makes it the natural moment to reshape a squad for the next run of fixtures. The round opens with Athletic Club - Espanyol on Friday 20 November and closes with Levante - Elche on Monday 23 November. All twenty clubs play once, so there are no blanks to plan around.
The decision this round is about the three rounds behind it. Barcelona have the best attacking program in the game, Athletic Club have the best defensive one, and Levante's run turns sharply upwards in Runde 13. Real Madrid's program goes the other way: a big home week now, then a fade. Below we rank the programs, pick the best buys position by position, name the captain and list the sells, each with the reason to act now rather than later. If you missed it, the Liga Manager Runde 11 preview covers the round before the break.
The programs: whose next three rounds are worth owning
Barcelona run [H]Villarreal → [A]Deportivo La Coruna → [H]Celta Vigo, the best three-round program in Liga Manager at 6.87 expected goals. Runde 12 is the peak: an 80% win probability and 3.28 expected goals against Villarreal, the highest attacking number of the round. The two rounds after it are still above average, which is why Barcelona's attackers are holds and not one-round rentals.
Athletic Club have the steadiest program in the league: [H]Espanyol → [A]Malaga → [H]Real Madrid, with 1.24 expected clean sheets across the three, the best defensive total in the game. No single week is spectacular, but none is bad either, and that consistency is what you want from defenders and a goalkeeper you intend to keep.
Real Madrid host Celta Vigo with a 79% win probability and a 46% clean-sheet chance, the best clean-sheet number of the round. After that comes [H]Deportivo Alaves and [A]Athletic Club, and their defensive numbers drop away. Treat Real Madrid defenders as a one-round story and not a hold.
Levante are the program to buy into before it turns: [H]Elche → [H]Racing Santander → [A]Rayo Vallecano. The Runde 13 home game against Racing Santander carries 1.95 expected goals and a 50% clean-sheet chance, among the best numbers of that round, and Runde 12 against Elche is a decent fixture in its own right. Their players are cheap, so getting in one round early costs almost nothing.
At the bottom, Malaga ([A]Osasuna → [H]Athletic Club → [A]Sevilla) and Getafe ([H]Atletico Madrid → [A]Espanyol → [H]Valencia) have the weakest attacking programs, at 2.31 and 2.47 expected goals. Check the full Liga Manager schedule and the market probabilities for every fixture.
| Team | Runde 12 fixture | Win probability | Expected goals | Clean sheet | Program (Runde 12-14) | 3-round xG | 3-round CS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barcelona | [H]VIL | 80% | 3.28 | 35% | [H]VIL → [A]COR → [H]CEL | 6.87 | 1.02 |
| Real Madrid | [H]CEL | 79% | 2.81 | 46% | [H]CEL → [H]ALA → [A]ATH | 5.23 | 1.00 |
| Athletic Club | [H]ESP | 60% | 1.86 | 42% | [H]ESP → [A]MAL → [H]RMA | 4.80 | 1.24 |
| Levante | [H]ELC | 44% | 1.65 | 26% | [H]ELC → [H]SAN → [A]RAY | 4.71 | 1.00 |
| Real Sociedad | [A]SAN | 45% | 1.88 | 21% | [A]SAN → [H]SEV → [A]VIL | 4.39 | 0.73 |
| Atletico Madrid | [A]GET | 58% | 1.72 | 45% | [A]GET → [A]ELC → [H]BET | 4.33 | 1.04 |
| Rayo Vallecano | [H]VAL | 48% | 1.54 | 36% | [H]VAL → [A]BET → [H]LEV | 4.11 | 0.93 |
| Villarreal | [A]BAR | 8% | 1.05 | 4% | [A]BAR → [A]CEL → [H]RSO | 4.05 | 0.66 |
| Real Betis | [A]SEV | 41% | 1.54 | 26% | [A]SEV → [H]RAY → [A]ATM | 4.02 | 0.79 |
| Sevilla | [H]BET | 33% | 1.36 | 21% | [H]BET → [A]RSO → [H]MAL | 4.00 | 1.01 |
| Osasuna | [H]MAL | 54% | 1.70 | 38% | [H]MAL → [A]VAL → [H]ELC | 3.86 | 1.02 |
| Elche | [A]LEV | 30% | 1.34 | 19% | [A]LEV → [H]ATM → [A]OSA | 3.70 | 0.80 |
| Deportivo Alaves | [H]COR | 46% | 1.44 | 36% | [H]COR → [A]RMA → [H]ESP | 3.68 | 1.01 |
| Racing Santander | [H]RSO | 31% | 1.55 | 15% | [H]RSO → [A]LEV → [H]COR | 3.38 | 0.72 |
| Celta Vigo | [A]RMA | 7% | 0.77 | 6% | [A]RMA → [H]VIL → [A]BAR | 3.16 | 0.57 |
| Valencia | [A]RAY | 24% | 1.02 | 22% | [A]RAY → [H]OSA → [A]GET | 3.11 | 1.04 |
| Deportivo La Coruna | [A]ALA | 26% | 1.02 | 24% | [A]ALA → [H]BAR → [A]SAN | 2.91 | 0.70 |
| Espanyol | [A]ATH | 16% | 0.88 | 16% | [A]ATH → [H]GET → [A]ALA | 2.82 | 0.95 |
| Getafe | [H]ATM | 16% | 0.80 | 18% | [H]ATM → [A]ESP → [H]VAL | 2.47 | 1.01 |
| Malaga | [A]OSA | 21% | 0.97 | 18% | [A]OSA → [H]ATH → [A]SEV | 2.31 | 0.64 |
The table is sorted by 3-round expected goals. The 3-round CS column is the expected number of clean sheets across the three games, not a percentage.
Runde 12 goalkeepers
Unai Simon (5.2m, ATH) is the keeper to own and stop thinking about. His program of [H]ESP → [A]MAL → [H]RMA holds him at 75k → 77k → 64k, 216k over three rounds, and the flat line is the point. One in five managers already has him, so he protects rank rather than winning it.
Joan Garcia (6.5m, BAR) edges him on the three-round total at 217k ([H]VIL → [A]COR → [H]CEL, 86k → 72k → 59k) and leads all keepers over that window. He costs 1.3m more than Simon for the same output, so he is the choice only if you are already building around Barcelona's defence.
Mathew Ryan (3.5m, LEV) is the value pick and a genuine differential at 1.7% ownership. [H]ELC → [H]SAN → [A]RAY gives him 58k → 86k → 50k, 194k in total, the best points per million of any goalkeeper over the three rounds. The Runde 13 Racing Santander game is the reason to buy him now rather than next week.
Thibaut Courtois has the best single Runde 12 number among keepers at 94k, but his program fades to 57k and 44k. He is not worth a transfer for one round at 6.4m.
Runde 12 defenders
Alejandro Grimaldo (6.6m, ATM) leads all defenders over the next three rounds with 223k on [A]GET → [A]ELC → [H]BET (98k → 48k → 77k). The Elche week is the dip, and two strong rounds around it carry the case. He is a hold for the 10.4% who own him and a fair buy for anyone with the money.
Joao Cancelo (5.5m, BAR) is the hidden gem in defence. He is second among defenders at 216k over three rounds ([H]VIL → [A]COR → [H]CEL, 99k → 66k → 52k), yet only 2.3% of managers own him. He matches Grimaldo's Runde 12 number for 1.1m less.
Aymeric Laporte (3.8m, ATH) is the value defender with a full program behind him: [H]ESP → [A]MAL → [H]RMA at 70k → 63k → 55k, 187k in total. Pair him with Unai Simon and you are doubling up on the same Athletic clean sheet, which is exactly the stack this program supports.
Hugo Rincon (3.2m, ATH) is the budget route into the same defence, [H]ESP → [A]MAL → [H]RMA, at 61k → 57k → 44k (162k), and Daniel Vivian (3.6m) is a near-identical alternative at 166k. Remember the four-per-club limit: Simon, Laporte and one Athletic attacker already use three of the four slots.
Aissa Mandi (2.6m, LEV) is the cheap Levante defender for the Runde 13 peak: 40k → 69k → 28k on [H]ELC → [H]SAN → [A]RAY. He is a two-round pick, bought for the Racing Santander game and sold again before Runde 14. Adrià Pedrosa (2.9m, Rayo Vallecano) is the other budget option at 130k over three rounds, with a 65k Runde 16 home game against Malaga further out.
Real Madrid's defenders score well this round (Marc Cucurella 92k against Celta Vigo), but Cucurella drops to 43k and 26k after it. Buying one now means paying a fee for a single good week.
Runde 12 midfielders
Raphinha (11.9m, BAR) is the best midfielder in the game this round and over the horizon: [H]VIL → [A]COR → [H]CEL gives him 208k → 117k → 89k, 415k over three rounds. He is on penalties, and the model gives him 0.71 expected goals plus 0.32 expected assists against Villarreal.
Lamine Yamal (12.7m, BAR) is close behind on the same [H]VIL → [A]COR → [H]CEL run at 185k → 116k → 94k (395k) and actually leads the pair in Runde 14 against Celta Vigo. With Barcelona's program this good, owning both is reasonable if you can fit them inside the four-per-club limit.
Fermin Lopez (8.2m, BAR) is the cheaper way into the same attack, [H]VIL → [A]COR → [H]CEL: 168k → 93k → 81k for 343k, the third-best midfield total in the game, at 10.5% ownership.
Karim Adeyemi (5.0m, BAR) is the value Barcelona pick at 131k → 80k → 66k (277k) on [H]VIL → [A]COR → [H]CEL. His 131k this round is the best points per million of any player above 4.5m. Most of the league already has him at 27.8%, so he is a template hold rather than an edge.
Inaki Williams (5.9m, ATH) is the differential of the round. Only 4.4% own him, and his line reads 118k → 91k → 93k on [H]ESP → [A]MAL → [H]RMA, 301k over three rounds, fourth among all midfielders and the best outside Barcelona. He holds 89k and 87k in Runde 15 and 16 too, so this is a buy you can keep. On the same [H]ESP → [A]MAL → [H]RMA program, Nico Williams (6.0m, ATH) (109k → 89k → 85k, 282k) and Alex Berenguer (4.7m, ATH) (108k → 75k → 84k, 268k) are the alternatives if you prefer a cheaper Athletic attacker.
Arnaut Danjuma (3.7m, VAL) is the budget midfielder of the round. [A]RAY → [H]OSA → [A]GET gives him 72k → 97k → 65k, 234k in total, the best points per million of any midfielder over three rounds, at 1.3% ownership. He rises again to 86k and 87k in Runde 15 and 16, so this is a cheap hold rather than a rotation.
Two more cheap options are Peio Canales (3.2m, ATH), steady at 73k → 54k → 55k (183k) on [H]ESP → [A]MAL → [H]RMA, and Jonathan Dubasin (3.1m, OSA), who scores 80k against Malaga this round and 183k over the three ([H]MAL → [A]VAL → [H]ELC), with a dip in the Valencia week. Levante's Roger Brugué (4.0m) is a third, with 98k in the Runde 13 Racing Santander game.
The round-versus-program split is sharpest in midfield. Jude Bellingham (122k) outscores Inaki Williams (118k) this round, but over the next three Williams has 301k to Bellingham's 213k and costs 2.9m less. If you are buying one and keeping him, buy Williams.
Runde 12 forwards
Kylian Mbappé (16.5m, RMA) is the highest-scoring player in the game this round at 261k against Celta Vigo, with 1.08 expected goals and penalties on top. His program is [H]CEL → [H]ALA → [A]ATH (261k → 119k → 81k, 461k), and he climbs back to 122k and 134k in Runde 15 and 16. He is a hold for the 41.3% who own him.
Ante Budimir (8.2m, OSA) is the second-best forward over three rounds at 280k: [H]MAL → [A]VAL → [H]ELC, 134k → 57k → 88k. He is Osasuna's penalty taker, and two home games make up for the Valencia week. At 5.7% ownership he is a real differential at the top of the price range.
Sergio Camello (5.7m, RAY) is the mid-price forward with the best long run: 92k → 67k → 85k on [H]VAL → [A]BET → [H]LEV (243k), then 104k in Runde 16 at home to Malaga. Julián Álvarez outscores him this round (112k against 92k), but over three rounds the two are level (240k against 243k) and Camello is 2.8m cheaper.
Fer Nino (3.4m, ELC) is the budget forward: 79k → 87k → 51k on [A]LEV → [H]ATM → [A]OSA, 217k in total and the best points per million of any forward over the window. Ivan Romero (4.5m, LEV) (84k → 100k → 51k) and Etta Eyong (3.7m, LEV) (71k → 98k → 48k) are the Levante forwards for the Runde 13 peak on [H]ELC → [H]SAN → [A]RAY. Bought now, both give you a decent Elche week first.
Mikel Oyarzabal (8.2m) has 115k at Racing Santander this round but falls to 45k in Runde 14 away at Villarreal. Georges Mikautadze (7.7m, Villarreal) is the opposite case: only 34k away at Barcelona this round, then 66k → 112k → 102k. Leave him out now; he is a buy from Runde 13.
For the full forward list and price filters, use the Liga Manager player picks, and check who is expected to start on the predicted lineups page before the deadline.
Runde 12 captain picks
The captain scores double in Liga Manager, and this round there is a clear first choice.
- Kylian Mbappé (16.5m, RMA): 261k against Celta Vigo, more than 50k ahead of anyone else. Real Madrid's 79% win probability and his penalty duties make him the safest big score of the round.
- Raphinha (11.9m, BAR): 208k against Villarreal, in the game with the most expected goals of the round. The pick if you do not own Mbappé.
- Lamine Yamal (12.7m, BAR): 185k, with Fermin Lopez (168k) the fourth option.
Looking ahead, Runde 13 is a three-way tie between Mbappé (119k), Raphinha (117k) and Yamal (116k). In Runde 14 Mbappé drops to 81k away at Athletic, and Mikautadze (112k at home to Real Sociedad) and Yamal (94k) lead the round. Barcelona's attackers give you a captain option in each of the next three rounds, which strengthens the case for owning two of them.
Who to sell before Runde 12
Anthony Gordon (5.7m, BAR) is the biggest sell in the game. 38.4% of managers own him, but he is projected for just 26 minutes against Villarreal and only 60k → 48k → 33k over [H]VIL → [A]COR → [H]CEL. Why now: the minutes are the problem, not the fixtures, and nothing in the program fixes them. Karim Adeyemi gives you the same Barcelona program for 0.7m less.
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (4.6m, COR) is owned by 31.4% and projected for 15 minutes this round, with 19k → 7k → 12k on [A]ALA → [H]BAR → [A]SAN. Why now: he is not expected to start, and the Barcelona week follows. Fer Nino or Etta Eyong are cheaper and play. Ximo Navarro (2.1m, Deportivo La Coruna) is in the same position in defence: 22.0% own him, he is projected for 8 minutes, and Aissa Mandi or Hugo Rincon replace him for a small step up in price.
Jude Bellingham (8.8m, RMA) is the sell for owners who want into Barcelona. His program is [H]CEL → [H]ALA → [A]ATH. [H]CEL is a good fixture and 122k is a decent score, so this is not a bad week for him. But he drops to 53k and 39k in Runde 13 and 14, and Fermin Lopez is 0.6m cheaper and already beats him this round (168k against 122k). Why now: the swap gains you points in Runde 12 itself, so there is no reason to wait.
Álex Baena (5.9m, ATM) (14.6% owned) plays [A]GET → [A]ELC → [H]BET. He has 86k at Getafe, a fair return, but then 41k away at Elche and 193k over three rounds. Why now: Inaki Williams costs the same and outscores him in each of the next three rounds.
Leo Román (3.4m, COR) (18.6% owned) has 45k → 30k → 51k on [A]ALA → [H]BAR → [A]SAN, with Barcelona coming to Deportivo La Coruna in Runde 13. Why now: Mathew Ryan costs 0.1m more and his best week is the same round as Román's worst one.
Ademola Lookman (6.1m, Atletico Madrid, 13.4% owned) is projected for 16 minutes against Getafe and only 104k over three rounds. He is another one to move on.
You can wait a round on Yassir Zabiri (3.8m, SAN), whose program is [H]RSO → [A]LEV → [H]COR. [H]RSO is a decent home game worth 67k, but [A]LEV follows and he drops to 21k, so plan to sell him before Runde 13 rather than now. The same goes for Real Madrid's defenders: keep them for the Celta Vigo game and move them on before the Alaves week.
To test these moves against the full squad, run the Liga Manager optimal teams solver, and find every round's analysis in the Liga Manager preview hub.
FAQ
Who should I captain in Liga Manager Runde 12?
Kylian Mbappé is the captain for Liga Manager Runde 12, with 261k projected at home to Celta Vigo. Raphinha (208k against Villarreal) is the best alternative, and Lamine Yamal (185k) is third.
Who are the best differentials for Liga Manager Runde 12?
Inaki Williams (5.9m, 4.4% owned) has 301k over the next three rounds, the best non-Barcelona midfield total. Joao Cancelo (5.5m, 2.3%), Ante Budimir (8.2m, 5.7%) and Mathew Ryan (3.5m, 1.7%) are the other low-owned picks with strong programs.
Should I sell Anthony Gordon before Liga Manager Runde 12?
Yes. Anthony Gordon is projected for only 26 minutes against Villarreal and 141k over the next three rounds. Karim Adeyemi gives you the same Barcelona program for 0.7m less and projects 277k.
Which cheap players are best in Liga Manager Runde 12?
Arnaut Danjuma (3.7m, 234k over three rounds), Fer Nino (3.4m, 217k), Mathew Ryan (3.5m, 194k) and Aymeric Laporte (3.8m, 187k) are among the best points-per-million picks over Runde 12 to 14.
Which team has the best fixtures in Liga Manager from Runde 12?
Barcelona have the best attacking program at 6.87 expected goals over [H]Villarreal, [A]Deportivo La Coruna and [H]Celta Vigo. Athletic Club have the best defensive one at 1.24 expected clean sheets.
This preview was written by TheFantasyTool AI.