Liga Manager Runde 10: captain picks and best buys

Liga Manager Runde 10 preview: best buys, captain picks and differentials

Liga Manager Runde 10 runs from Friday 30 October to Monday 2 November, and all 20 LaLiga clubs play once, so there are no blanks to plan around. The headline fixture is Barcelona - Deportivo Alaves, the best single fixture any team has in the next three rounds, but the transfers you make now are about what comes after it. Barcelona go to Atletico Madrid in Runde 11, Real Madrid have two away trips before a home game against Celta Vigo, and Osasuna quietly have the best defensive run in the game. This round is the last chance to get into Osasuna before that run starts, and a good moment to move on from players whose next three rounds have nothing in them.

All numbers below are the model's projections for Runde 10-12, from the fixture list and projections pulled on 24 October. The full player table is on the Liga Manager player picks page, and last round's thinking is in the Liga Manager Runde 9 preview.

Liga Manager Runde 10 programs: whose next three rounds are worth owning

Barcelona's [H]ALA → [A]ATM → [H]VIL is the best three-round run in the game at 7.12 expected goals. Almost half of that comes from Runde 10: an 85% win probability, 3.29 expected goals and a 48% clean-sheet chance, all three the best in the round. The Atletico away game is the one to plan around rather than avoid, and Villarreal at home in Runde 12 is a solid fixture again. Barcelona attackers are the hold of the next three rounds, not just this weekend.

Real Madrid are second at 6.71 expected goals over [A]SAN → [A]VAL → [H]CEL. Santander away carries a 76% win probability and 3.00 expected goals, and Celta at home in Runde 12 is the second good fixture. Villarreal (5.01) are a two-round team: [H]ESP → [H]GET both look good, including a 50% clean-sheet chance against Getafe in Runde 11, before [A]BAR in Runde 12. Real Betis have the same shape, with [H]MAL as one of the best fixtures of the round (68% win probability) and two away trips behind it.

Osasuna are the defensive program to own. [A]COR → [H]ATH → [H]MAL adds up to 1.36 expected clean sheets, the most of any team in the game, ahead of Athletic Club and Sevilla on 1.08. Osasuna carry a 42% clean-sheet chance at Deportivo this round and 55% at home to Malaga in Runde 12. Their attack is only mid-table at 4.08 expected goals over the three games, so this is a goalkeeper and defender buy, plus a forward who takes their penalties.

Atletico Madrid's [A]LEV is a good fixture (59% win probability), but [H]BAR follows, so their players are better kept than bought. Levante are the team to watch for later: [H]ATM is a hard start, then [A]CEL → [H]ELC → [H]SAN gets steadily better. Deportivo have the weakest attacking program in the game at 2.22 expected goals, and Racing Santander expect the fewest clean sheets, 0.61. Every match is on the Liga Manager schedule, and the bookmaker lines behind these numbers are on the market probabilities page.

Best goalkeepers for Liga Manager Runde 10

Thibaut Courtois (6.205m, RMA) is the keeper to buy, and both rankings agree. He projects 96k → 66k → 81k over [A]SAN → [A]VAL → [H]CEL for 243k, the highest total of any goalkeeper this round and over three rounds. His six-round weighted score of 288k is also the best among keepers. Only 4.3% of managers own him.

Aitor Fernández (3.122m, OSA) is the value buy and the differential. He projects 72k → 56k → 77k over [A]COR → [H]ATH → [H]MAL for 205k, which is level with Joan Garcia at less than half the price. At 23.1k per million he is the best value of any keeper this round, he sits behind the best expected clean-sheet total in the game, and he is owned by 0.8%. This round is the right time, because the Malaga home game in Runde 12 is his best of the three.

Joan Garcia (6.44m, BAR) is a hold rather than a fresh buy. He projects 95k → 51k → 60k over [H]ALA → [A]ATM → [H]VIL (206k), so most of his value sits in this round. Péter Gulácsi (4.234m, VIL) is a two-round buy at 75k → 76k → 31k over [H]ESP → [H]GET → [A]BAR. Buy him for Espanyol and Getafe, and plan to sell him again before Runde 12. Unai Simon, in 21.3% of squads, is a comfortable hold at 61k → 56k → 72k.

One for later: Mathew Ryan (3.523m, LEV) goes 33k → 52k → 73k → 88k over [H]ATM → [A]CEL → [H]ELC → [H]SAN. Leave him out now, but he is a buy from Runde 11, when Levante's run starts.

Best defenders for Liga Manager Runde 10

The round ranking and the three-round ranking disagree at the top. Joao Cancelo (5.44m, BAR) is the best defender this round at 117k, with 0.25 expected assists against Alaves, over [H]ALA → [A]ATM → [H]VIL (117k → 43k → 48k, 208k). Marc Cucurella (5.404m, RMA) edges him over three rounds at 102k → 47k → 61k (210k) over [A]SAN → [A]VAL → [H]CEL. The gap is only 2k, so choose on ownership. Cancelo is in 1.2% of squads and Cucurella in 8.0%, so Cancelo is the differential and Cucurella the safer hold.

Alejandro Grimaldo (6.109m, ATM) is the long hold. He projects 99k → 46k → 61k over [A]LEV → [H]BAR → [A]GET (207k), then 74k, 69k and 68k in the three rounds after, which gives him the best six-round weighted score of any defender at 258k. If you are buying one premium defender and keeping him, it is Grimaldo. Ibrahima Konaté (4.803m, RMA) is the cheaper way into the Real Madrid defence at 88k → 43k → 58k (189k) over [A]SAN → [A]VAL → [H]CEL, and only 1.7% own him.

Alex Freeman (3.151m, VIL) is the best value of any player in the game this round at 26.6k per million. He projects 84k → 71k → 20k over [H]ESP → [H]GET → [A]BAR, so he is a clear two-round buy: two good home games, then sell him before Barcelona away. Xavi Espart (15.9% owned) is a keep for this round at 91k, but drops to 38k and 43k after it.

For the cheapest Osasuna stack, Abel Bretones (2.701m, OSA) projects 56k → 38k → 63k over [A]COR → [H]ATH → [H]MAL for 157k at 20.7k per million. Pair him with Aitor Fernández and both players score off the same clean sheets, in the three rounds where Osasuna expect the most of them.

Best midfielders for Liga Manager Runde 10

Raphinha (11.375m, BAR) is the top midfielder this round and over three rounds: 215k → 90k → 117k over [H]ALA → [A]ATM → [H]VIL, 422k in total and a 500k weighted score. He is Barcelona's penalty taker and has 0.72 expected goals against Alaves. Lamine Yamal (33.8% owned) is right behind him at 190k → 82k → 112k and is an obvious hold.

Fermin Lopez (7.761m, BAR) is the Barcelona buy that most squads do not have. He projects 167k → 67k → 88k (321k) over the same program at 21.5k per million, and only 10.9% own him. Jude Bellingham (8.508m, RMA) is the Real Madrid equivalent at 144k → 63k → 86k (292k) over [A]SAN → [A]VAL → [H]CEL. Anthony Gordon is already in 39.4% of squads at 138k this round, so he protects your rank rather than gaining you any.

Below the premiums, the round ranking and the three-round ranking point to different players. Ademola Lookman (5.997m, ATM) is the steadier option. He projects 116k → 62k → 65k over [A]LEV → [H]BAR → [A]GET for 244k, takes Atletico's penalties and holds up after this round. Isco (4.632m, BET) scores more this round at 120k and is the best-value midfielder at 25.8k per million, as Betis's penalty taker at home to Malaga. But he falls to 57k → 41k over [A]ELC → [A]SEV, for 218k over three rounds. If you are buying one and keeping him, buy Lookman. If you want a cheap one-round play and plan to sell him in Runde 11, Isco is the better pick.

The hidden gems sit at the bottom of the price list. Alex Berenguer (4.013m, ATH) projects 78k → 42k → 80k over [H]RSO → [A]OSA → [H]ESP (200k), and only 3.0% own him. The Espanyol home game in Runde 12 is as good as this round. Jonathan Dubasin (3.153m, OSA) is the budget Osasuna midfielder at 63k → 44k → 70k (176k) over [A]COR → [H]ATH → [H]MAL, owned by 0.2%.

Best forwards for Liga Manager Runde 10

Kylian Mbappé (15.945m, RMA) is the highest-projected player in the game at 254k, with 1.07 expected goals and Real Madrid's penalties at Santander. His program is [A]SAN → [A]VAL → [H]CEL, 254k → 97k → 138k, for 489k over three rounds and a 548k weighted score. He is owned by 39.6%, and this is no week to be without him.

Ante Budimir (8.086m, OSA) is second among forwards over three rounds at 108k → 79k → 122k (309k) over [A]COR → [H]ATH → [H]MAL. He takes Osasuna's penalties, and his best week, Malaga at home, comes in Runde 12. Troy Parrott (4.389m, BET) scores more this round (116k against Budimir's 108k) and is the best-value forward at 26.5k per million as Betis's penalty taker. But he drops to 53k → 41k over [A]ELC → [A]SEV for 211k. Budimir is the forward to buy and keep. Parrott is a one-round play to sell again in Runde 11.

Georges Mikautadze (7.512m, VIL) is a two-round forward at 105k → 90k → 41k over [H]ESP → [H]GET → [A]BAR. Buy him for the two home games and sell before Barcelona away. On a budget, Fer Nino (3.258m, ELC) projects 75k → 64k → 42k over [H]VAL → [H]BET → [A]LEV (182k) at 22.9k per million. Julián Álvarez projects 105k this round but only 90k across the next two together, so he is not one to buy now.

Leave Roberto Fernández (5.468m, ESP) out this round and look at him for Runde 11. He projects 49k → 111k → 38k over [A]VIL → [H]COR → [A]ATH, and the Deportivo home game is the highest single projection of any player in Runde 11. It is a one-round buy for that week.

Check the Liga Manager predicted lineups before the deadline, because every projection above assumes the player starts.

Liga Manager Runde 10 captain picks

Kylian Mbappé (15.945m, RMA) is the captain, and his [A]SAN → [A]VAL → [H]CEL program keeps him the captain for longer than this week. His 254k is the highest projection in the game, which makes it roughly 508k with the captain double. The alternatives are all Barcelona players: Raphinha at 215k, Lamine Yamal at 190k and Fermin Lopez at 167k, with Jude Bellingham next at 144k. If you do not own Mbappé, Raphinha is the captain, and the penalties make his ceiling the highest of the three.

Captaincy is also the reason to keep Mbappé after this round. He is the top projection again in Runde 12 (138k, [H]CEL), ahead of Ante Budimir (122k) and Raphinha (117k). In Runde 11 he is second at 97k, behind only Roberto Fernández's home game against Deportivo. One premium gives you a strong captain in all three rounds, and no one else does that.

Who to sell before Liga Manager Runde 10

Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (4.545m, COR) is the clearest sale. He is injured with a return date at the end of November, is projected below zero in each of the next three rounds, and is still in 31.1% of squads. Why now: he has no points to give until Runde 13 at the earliest, and Deportivo's [H]OSA → [A]ESP → [A]ALA is the weakest attacking program in the game anyway. The slot is better spent on Fer Nino or Troy Parrott.

Karim Adeyemi (4.92m, BAR) is in 30.1% of squads but is projected for only about 20 minutes this round. That gives him 56k in Barcelona's best fixture of the run, then 37k → 49k over [A]ATM → [H]VIL. Why now: the Alaves game is when Barcelona's attackers score the most, and he is not projected to be on the pitch for most of it. Anthony Gordon or Fermin Lopez project 138k and 167k in the same game.

Yassir Zabiri (3.578m, SAN) is owned by 19.6% and projects 8k → 27k → 19k over [H]RMA → [A]MAL → [H]RSO. Malaga away is a fair fixture, but even that only reaches 27k. Why now: there is no good week in the run to wait for, and Fer Nino projects more in each of the three rounds for less money.

Ximo Navarro (2.108m, COR) and Leo Román (3.296m, COR) are the Deportivo defence, owned by 22.1% and 17.5%. Navarro projects 24k → 13k → 9k and Román 43k → 34k → 32k over [H]OSA → [A]ESP → [A]ALA. Why now: [H]OSA is their best fixture of the three, and it gets worse from there. Aitor Fernández and Abel Bretones replace them for similar money and outscore them in all three rounds.

You can wait a round on Aymeric Laporte (15.0% owned). His return date falls just before this round, and the model has him out for Runde 10 but back at 35k → 55k over [A]OSA → [H]ESP in Runde 11 and 12. Selling him now and buying him back later is not worth it.

Liga Manager Runde 10 transfer summary

Bring in an Osasuna block before their run starts (Aitor Fernández, Abel Bretones, Ante Budimir). Use Alex Freeman, Péter Gulácsi or Georges Mikautadze as two-round Villarreal rotations, and sell them before Runde 12. Isco or Troy Parrott work as one-round Betis plays. Keep the Barcelona and Real Madrid cores and captain Mbappé. Sell Aubameyang, Adeyemi, Zabiri and the Deportivo defence. Run your own squad through the Liga Manager optimal teams solver, and find every round's analysis in the Liga Manager preview hub. To see how lineup projections are built, read predicted lineups explained.

FAQ

Who should I captain in Liga Manager Runde 10?

Kylian Mbappé. He projects 254k at Santander, the highest in the game, so roughly 508k as captain. Raphinha (215k) is the best alternative, followed by Lamine Yamal (190k) and Fermin Lopez (167k), all at home to Alaves.

Which budget defenders are best for Liga Manager Runde 10?

Alex Freeman (3.151m, Villarreal) is the best value in the game at 26.6k per million, with 84k this round and 71k in Runde 11 before Barcelona away. Abel Bretones (2.701m, Osasuna) projects 157k over three rounds behind the best expected clean-sheet run in the game.

Should I sell Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang before Liga Manager Runde 10?

Yes. He is injured until the end of November and projected below zero in each of the next three rounds. Deportivo also have the weakest attacking program in the game. Fer Nino or Troy Parrott are cheaper replacements who score now.

Best differentials for Liga Manager Runde 10?

Aitor Fernández (0.8% owned, 205k over three rounds), Joao Cancelo (1.2%, the top defender this round at 117k), Alex Berenguer (3.0%, 200k over three rounds) and Ante Budimir (5.5%, 309k over three rounds).

Which goalkeeper should I buy for Liga Manager Runde 10?

Thibaut Courtois is the best goalkeeper this round (96k) and over three rounds (243k). Aitor Fernández matches Joan Garcia's three-round total for less than half the price, and he is the best-value keeper this round.

This preview was written by TheFantasyTool AI.