Liga Manager Runde 9: captain picks and best buys

Liga Manager Runde 9 preview: Clásico captaincy, best buys and differentials

Liga Manager Runde 9 runs from Friday 23 October to Monday 26 October, and every one of the 20 LaLiga clubs plays once. There are no blanks to plan around. The round is built around Barcelona - Real Madrid on Sunday night, but the transfer decisions are about what comes after it. Barcelona have the best three-round program in the game. Atletico Madrid have the best single fixture of the round and a tougher run behind it. Villarreal and Real Betis have quiet Runde 9 fixtures that open up from Runde 10.

All numbers below come from the model's projections for Runde 9-11, using the fixture list as of 17 October. The full player table is on the Liga Manager player picks page, and last round's thinking is in the Liga Manager Runde 8 preview.

Liga Manager Runde 9 programs: whose next three rounds are worth owning

Barcelona's [H]RMA → [H]ALA → [A]ATM is the best three-round run in the game, at 6.45 expected goals. The Clásico is the hardest of the three, and Barcelona are still 62% favourites at home. That is why their attackers stay near the top in all three rounds and not just this weekend.

Villarreal are second at 5.70 expected goals over [A]VAL → [H]ESP → [H]GET, with 1.13 expected clean sheets. Runde 9 is the weakest of the three fixtures, so this is a team to buy now and hold. Athletic Club's [H]GET → [H]RSO → [A]OSA has the most expected clean sheets of any team at 1.17. That makes it the steadiest defensive block, even though their attack only ranks mid-table.

Atletico Madrid are the special case. [H]COR is the best fixture of the round by a distance: 79% win probability and a 51% clean-sheet chance, both the highest in Runde 9. Then come [A]LEV and [H]BAR, and over three rounds they drop to 0.91 expected clean sheets, behind Athletic, Sevilla, Villarreal, Betis and Osasuna. So Atletico players are one-round buys, except the attackers whose numbers hold up after this weekend.

Deportivo have the worst program on the board: 2.34 expected goals and 0.52 expected clean sheets. Every match is on the Liga Manager schedule, and the bookmaker lines behind these numbers are on the market probabilities page.

Best goalkeepers for Liga Manager Runde 9

Péter Gulácsi (4.142m, VIL) is the hold. Villarreal's [A]VAL → [H]ESP → [H]GET gives him 55k → 73k → 73k, which is 201k over three rounds. That is 1k behind the top goalkeeper and he costs over a million less. He is owned by 1.0% of managers.

Álvaro Vallés (5.361m, BET) has the highest three-round total of any keeper, at 202k over [A]CEL → [H]MAL → [A]ELC. Almost all of that comes in Runde 10 (56k → 88k → 57k), so there is no rush. Unai Simon (4.925m, ATH) is the flat option at 76k → 65k → 55k over [H]GET → [H]RSO → [A]OSA, and Athletic's 1.17 expected clean sheets are the best in the game. He is already in 21.9% of squads, and there is no reason to sell him.

The rankings disagree here. Jan Oblak (5.664m, ATM) tops Runde 9 at 96k against Deportivo, then falls to 54k and 46k over [A]LEV → [H]BAR. If you are buying one keeper to keep, buy Gulácsi. Oblak is only worth it if you plan to sell him again before Runde 10. On a small budget, Ángel Fortuno (3.009m, ESP) projects 56k → 33k → 79k over [A]SAN → [A]VIL → [H]COR, with the Deportivo game in Runde 11 as the reason to own him.

Best defenders for Liga Manager Runde 9

Alex Freeman (3.109m, VIL) is the best defender over the next three rounds, at 57k → 88k → 70k over [A]VAL → [H]ESP → [H]GET for 215k in total. No other defender gets within 45k of that. He is the buy-and-hold pick at this price, and a Gulácsi plus Freeman pairing collects the same Villarreal clean sheet twice. Sergi Cardona (3.579m, VIL) (165k) and Renato Veiga (3.61m, VIL) (160k) are the next two Villarreal options if you want a third.

Atletico's centre-backs are the single-round play. David Hancko (5.017m, ATM) and Cristian Romero (4.531m, ATM) project 93k and 92k against Deportivo, the two highest defender numbers of the round. After that they drop to around 40k and 30k over [A]LEV → [H]BAR. This is one extremely good fixture: buy for Runde 9 and sell again before Runde 10. A 45-50k fee is small next to a 51% clean-sheet chance.

Hector Bellerin (4.441m, BET) is the Betis option at 43k → 74k → 40k over [A]CEL → [H]MAL → [A]ELC. He makes most sense if you are bringing in Betis attackers for Runde 10 anyway.

Budget defenders: Florian Lejeune (3.524m, RAY) projects 64k at home to Elche, with [H]ELC → [H]CEL → [A]RSO behind it for 139k. That is 18.3k per million this round, and he stays playable after the weekend. Nicolas Valentini (2.522m, ALA) has the best points per million of any defender at 22.1k per million (56k at home to Malaga). His program is [H]MAL → [A]BAR → [A]SEV and he drops to 8k in Runde 10, so he is a one-round rotation with a 25k fee. Sell him again before Barcelona.

Best midfielders for Liga Manager Runde 9

Lamine Yamal (11.996m, BAR) projects 186k → 154k → 113k over [H]RMA → [H]ALA → [A]ATM, for 454k over three rounds. That is the highest total in the game. He has produced 1.12 xG plus xA per 90 across 1,132 minutes this season. A third of managers own him, and you need him too.

Ademola Lookman (5.955m, ATM) is Atletico's attacker whose numbers hold up after this weekend. He projects 148k → 74k → 66k over [H]COR → [A]LEV → [H]BAR, which is 288k and fourth-best in the game over three rounds, at 24.9k per million this round. He is on Atletico's penalty list, and his three-round total is 59k ahead of Kang-In Lee (5.751m, ATM) (119k → 59k → 51k). Lee is the 1.8%-owned differential if you are stacking Atletico for one round. With the 4-per-club cap, Oblak, one centre-back, Lookman and Jonathan David is the maximum Atletico block.

Inaki Williams (5.438m, ATH) is the midfielder to hold, at 113k → 89k → 57k over [H]GET → [H]RSO → [A]OSA (259k). Lee beats him by 6k this round, but Williams is 30k ahead over three rounds. If you are buying one of the two to keep, buy Williams. Robert Navarro (4.433m, ATH) is the cheaper Athletic route at 82k → 64k → 43k.

Antony (5.893m, BET) is the program buy. Runde 9 at Celta is a fair 71k, then Malaga at home takes him to 112k, for 253k over three rounds at 2.4% ownership. This is a case of buying before the good run starts, not during it. For a budget differential, Ander Barrenetxea (4.527m, RSO) projects 85k at home to Levante. His [H]LEV → [A]ATH → [H]RAY run gives 85k → 35k → 63k at 1.0% ownership.

Best forwards for Liga Manager Runde 9

Kylian Mbappé (15.581m, RMA) is a hold, not a sell. The Clásico costs him this week (106k), but [A]BAR → [A]SAN → [A]VAL goes 106k → 200k → 126k. His 200k in Runde 10 is the biggest single-round projection on the board. He is a penalty taker with 1.06 xG plus xA per 90 this season.

Ayoze Pérez (5.903m, VIL) is the best forward buy outside Mbappé. He projects 85k → 121k → 94k over [A]VAL → [H]ESP → [H]GET, for 300k over three rounds, third in the whole game. He has 0.80 xG plus xA per 90 this season and is owned by 3.9%. Jonathan David (6.84m, ATM) tops the position this round with 126k and takes Atletico penalties, but he falls to 62k and 52k after it. The two rankings disagree again: for one round it is David, and for a player to keep it is Pérez, with 60k more over three rounds.

Gabriel Jesus (5.453m, BAR) is the cheap way into Barcelona's program, at 100k → 84k → 59k (243k) over [H]RMA → [H]ALA → [A]ATM. Juan Hernández (6.145m, BET) follows the same pattern as Antony at 73k → 115k → 72k, and Roberto Fernández (5.474m, ESP) peaks later: 92k → 45k → 122k, with the Runde 11 home game against Deportivo the reason to own him. Check minutes on the Liga Manager predicted lineups before the deadline.

Liga Manager Runde 9 captain picks

Lamine Yamal (11.996m, BAR) is the captain. His 186k is the highest projection in Runde 9, Barcelona are expected to score 2.65 goals at home to Real Madrid, and his 154k in Runde 10 makes him the safe hold behind it.

Ademola Lookman (148k) is the alternative if you want something different from the third of managers who own Yamal. Atletico are 79% favourites, and his penalty share raises his ceiling. Jonathan David (126k) is third. Looking ahead, Mbappé at 200k is the clear Runde 10 captain, and he edges Runde 11 too (126k against Yamal's 113k). Owning both premiums gives you a strong captain in each of the next three rounds.

Who to sell before Liga Manager Runde 9

Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (4.545m, COR) is the clearest sale. He is owned by 31.8% and is listed out until 17 November, after Runde 11 has been played. The model projects him below zero in each of the next three rounds. Selling now frees a slot for three rounds of Pérez or Lookman, and waiting changes nothing about his program.

Leo Román (3.296m, COR) is owned by 19.1%. The Runde 10 home game with Osasuna is a reasonable fixture (43k). But [A]ATM is the worst fixture in Runde 9 for any team, with a 7% clean-sheet chance and 19k projected. Deportivo's 0.52 expected clean sheets over three rounds is the lowest in the game. Moving now to Gulácsi takes you from 97k to 201k over the same three rounds. The same applies to Ximo Navarro (2.108m, COR), who is owned by 24.5%.

Raphinha (11.323m, BAR) is owned by 23.2%. He is due back on 18 October, but the next three rounds are his lowest-scoring stretch: 74k → 70k → 60k, or 6.5k per million this round. His numbers rise to 89k-102k from Runde 12, after the international break. That makes now the time to put the 11.3m into Lookman or Pérez, and Runde 12 the time to look at him again.

Yassir Zabiri (3.595m, SAN) is owned by 18.0%, and you can wait a round on him. [H]ESP is a decent home fixture and 65k is a fair score. The sale is before Runde 10, when Racing Santander host Real Madrid and he drops to 12k. Do not sell Jude Bellingham (8.386m, RMA) over his 37k in the Clásico either: [A]SAN takes him to 92k in Runde 10.

For a full squad built on these numbers, see the optimal teams for Liga Manager. Every round's analysis is collected in the Liga Manager preview hub.

FAQ

Who should I captain in Liga Manager Runde 9?

Lamine Yamal is the captain, with 186k projected at home to Real Madrid, the highest number in Runde 9. Ademola Lookman (148k against Deportivo) is the differential alternative, and Mbappé (200k) is the captain to plan for in Runde 10.

Which defenders are best for Liga Manager Runde 9?

Alex Freeman (3.109m) is the best defender to hold, with 215k over Villarreal's [A]VAL → [H]ESP → [H]GET. For Runde 9 alone, Atletico's David Hancko and Cristian Romero project 93k and 92k against Deportivo before dropping off. Sell them again before Runde 10.

Should I sell Aubameyang before Liga Manager Runde 9?

Yes. Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang is listed out until 17 November, after Runde 11, and projects below zero in each of the next three rounds. Selling now frees the slot for a player with a real program, such as Ayoze Pérez (300k over three rounds).

Best differentials for Liga Manager Runde 9?

Ayoze Pérez (3.9% owned, 300k over three rounds), Antony (2.4%, 71k → 112k → 70k) and Péter Gulácsi (1.0%, 201k) are the low-ownership picks with the strongest programs. Kang-In Lee (1.8%) is a one-round Atletico differential at 119k.

This preview was written by TheFantasyTool AI.