FPL GW38
The last dance
First of all, thank you for reading throughout the season. It has been a pleasure writing previews, interacting with you on X, streaming with The Fantasy Tool partners and going through an emotional rollercoaster of a season. I hope you've enjoyed it and I'm more than happy to hear about any feedback. Please just reach out on X (@FPL_Bronx).
GW38 is always special and this one even more as we have a fellow Dane in the hot seat of overall rank 1. I will spend the time with him before deadline to support his decision making and hopefully enjoy a celebration after the games have been played.
I will try and go through some of the key elements this gameweek that you should focus on.
Late transfers. We always get a bunch of leaks as all the games are played right after deadline and teams care a bit less about these final games. Beware of fake leaks too - trust those that are shared by the big X accounts as they are from leakers with proven track records.
With those leaks, you should look for you current players and targets, obviously. Remember to also be aware of teams that are heavily rotating, as it creates options from the teams that face fully rotated sides. That could be irregular Arsenal starter against Crystal Palace for instance, or Fulham - Newcastle where it could happen from both teams.
You can try and identify these opportunities by looking for market reactions where sudden rises/drops in odds for certain teams are indicating heavy rotation. fpljoe.com has a great overview of market odds movement and history.
Protection and chasing are big subjects this week too. In general, to protect a lead you get a player your opponent already owns and is very unlikely to sell/bench or if there is a very apparent transfer that will be made. That could be Bowen if Haaland is benched or Foden if he is leaked to start and Cherki to get benched. Just don't fall into a trap of buying someone that ends up not playing. Obviously, target the same captain as that has the biggest swing. In general, protect against attackers as they are more likely to create big gains for your counterpart than defenders. Also, we get about 20% more goals in GW38 on average, so cleans are less likely.
The chasing game is obviously a reversed version. Depending if it's overall or a mini league, different players need to be targeted to get as much possible variance against the field as possible.
For overall rank:
Bowen falls under the "medium" chasing category, players like Evanilson the maximized chasing option in my opinion.
City leaked mids (like Foden) or Szoboszlai could be medium chasing players. Hard chasing is stuff like Salah, Summerville or a leaked Arsenal starter like Eze.
Amplify with captaincy as you please.
A few points I'll try and provide for this final gameweek:
Most likely to play for Arsenal of the usual assets are Gabriel and Raya. Saliba depending on niggles. Rest is very uncertain and I think Saka is a sell without news.
City players are really hard and I would depend on leaks. I would bet Haaland starts if we hear nothing as we've known every time Haaland hasn't started.
Brighton players are more than fine to start if necessary.
Porro, Mavropanos and Bowen are great buys.
If you need a Hail Mary, I really like Bruno G. Pens, DEFCON, non pen threat. Risky minutes and no motivation though.
Team selection
I won't make any changes until very close to deadline, and I will not be able to update you in time. Therefore, I will try and provide my perspective in the very unlikely case we get no news.
I've marked those I think are potentially not starting. Luckily my benched players are good (Joao Pedro if he plays), so there are no must transfers.
I really like Porro, and I will likely transfer him in if we get news Saliba or Guehi is out and even with no news it's a likely move for me as my attackers are fairly locked to play. No news will very likely mean Haaland is starting.
With no news I'm not sure I'd chance it with Semenyo, and he could therefore be transferred to either a leaked City player like Foden or I could do something like Joao Pedro to Bowen and just bench Semenyo. I think the latter is the more likely move for me with no news.
Haaland captains the side if he starts - Palmer if not.
Good luck everyone and enjoy the summer!