FPL GW28

The Marshmallow Experiment

Friday night deadline is quickly approaching, and talk of the town is whether to invest in either Wilson or Dango as the majority seem to let go of Ismaila Sarr or Enzo Fernandez.

The main reason for the being they both have games in gameweek 31, and their fixtures from now until GW31 are good. At the same time, everyone can downgrade to their prices from the mentioned players. With Wirtz out of the equation, it has become even more simple.

They are perfect buys into a GW31 deadend before wildcarding in GW32, so if you're on that chip strategy, go ahead. I'll question whether you should be completely locked into that strategy already.

Which one of Dango or Wilson is the question.

Honestly it's really close between them. If you want to stay open to a different strategy, I prefer Dango for teams that already have Thiago, Bruno, and Mbeumo. That would take you up to 4 players from the same GW34 fixture that may be moved to GW33 if Brentford reach semis.

Both players have one downside that not many are talking about.

Dango plays for a Brentford team, that is a lot better offensively (by xG) at home. 3 of their 4 next games are away, so the fixtures look less appealing than I believe they actually are. Dango's numbers are also extremely home favoured.

Wilson has 3 home games in the next four, but Fulham on the other hand is one of the teams that don't perform a lot better at home compared to away. Additionally, his underlying data is not very impressive, but his finishing skill have been at an extremely high level, above the likes of Foden who is known for the same thing. Whether that is sustainable is always the question.

This takes me back to the Marshmallow Experiment, as I feel this gameweek could be somewhat of a bait to transfer in players with a short term upside, but you may be forcing yourself into specific chip strategies by not having a maxed out transfer bank. I'm personally very focused on getting up to the 5 FTs for gameweek 30, as we will then know who the FA Cup quarter finalists are.

In short, if things fall my way, that will allow me to both navigate GW31 blanks and simultaneously maximize double gameweek players in DGW33 (likely 15). This will allow me even higher freedom in the last few GWs, where we will possibly also have doubles in GW36 along with the GW34 blanks, and having both the free hit and wildcard available for that will be extremely valuable.

There's a chance I'm overthinking it, but the small value I have to give up by starting Sarr rather than Dango/Wilson over the next two gameweeks is a cheap price to grant me the chip strategy flexibility. I'll get value from the transfers at a later point anyway if not used now.

Team selection

I'll be rolling my 3 FTs this gameweek. I don't expect Tavernier to start, so I will bench him and start Ismaila Sarr.

Bruno captains the side. I've had second thoughts about Haaland, but I've settled on Bruno.

Good luck everyone!