FPL GW22

Patience still pays

A short "break" from FPL with no games last weekend could make us trigger happy, and maybe even more so now that we are more certain (but not yet certain) who will blank in GW31 and thus have a double gameweek at some point.

Shortly, Arsenal and Man City are now heavy favorites for the EFL cup final, and markets have it more than 90% likely for each of them.

Man City are not able to get a double before GW31, but the Arsenal could be moved forward to GW26 as the only free midweek before GW31 or postponed for later and likely GW33. The most acknowledged fixture predictors in the community have it ~60% likely Arsenal will double in GW26.

Other than that, we also have our one and only Bruno Fernandes back in action for Manchester United. And a couple new managers, but let's focus on FPL for now.

And why do I then still talk about patience? While we know more about the Arsenal double, we still have plenty information cliffs in the near future, which you can read about in the preview for GW21, and most of us already own three Arsenal assets, which will naturally be key for a potential DGW26.

That being said, I'm seeing quite some noise around going Timber to Gabriel on the X timeline, which is not a move I would advise to make. This looks like something that can be the move of regrets for this season. If you own three Arsenal from Raya, Gabriel, Saliba, Timber, Rice, and Saka, I would advise you just keep them. Rotate for a better triple in a potential DGW26 instead, it would be disastrous to have to rewind the moves due to an unforeseen injury, and the value of free transfers right now are higher than ever this season.

If you don't own three Arsenal players I would focus on the timing of the players you must transfer out rather than forcing a player into the team. That could be selling a Liverpool asset next week, like Virgil to Gabriel.

One of the most apparent transfers out this GW is Keane, who shared a rollercoaster ride with his owners, and you should select you alternative based on either enabling other moves or rotations in your team. If Senesi fits well into your team, that's someone I personally like. There are a lot of viable defenders to own right now, so it is very team dependent.

The other one being Cunha. If you have the money, just get Bruno Fernandes. Alternatively, you should get either Enzo or Tavernier. I'd take Enzo in a 1:1 move if you don't own already, and Tavernier is great if it is necessary to enable a different move, like having money in the bank for Bruno in GW24.

I almost forgot to mention Palmer, but the minutes risk is still way too high to make the move now. I'll stay open to it for GW24, but it does not seem likely. Luckily (it's not luck), I have prepared alternatives. Stay tuned for that.

Just remember the EFL Cup is not settled, and there is still a minor chance that we could see a double gameweek for Chelsea and Everton before the blank GW. Spending all your transfers and this happening afterwards can make you look silly, although the likelihood is low.

Team Selection

I have 3 FTs and 1.5£ in the bank, and my move this week will be Cunha to Bruno Fernandes. Cunha is a natural sell, but Bruno can still perform in the tough fixtures with more routes to points and taking pens back from Cunha.

Haaland will captain the side as it stands, I will update here and let everyone know on X if I change my mind.

If you're far behind and would like a differential captain, Szoboszlai would be my pick if you own.

Good luck everyone!