FPL GW18
Christmas season upon
Were about to get into a busy part of the schedule, and historically this part of the season is where we experience unforeseen issues with both player availability and fixtures.
So far this year we have been "lucky" that no fixtures have yet been rescheduled, and weather issues are currently not apparent. On the other hand, we have now had player issues from the Bruno injury to the Szoboszlai suspension.
If that wasn't enough, we also now have the EFL Cup semi-finalists in place (MCI, CHE, ARS, NEW) and the finalists will blank in GW31. A long time from now, but there is a chance we see a double gameweek in GW26 or GW27 for some of these teams. Chances are slim, but that means you should already now have this in mind when spending your transfers and chips. We will likely not now until right before GW25 deadline. I would strongly recommend you don't just throw away your FTs for short-term upside. You will very likely be able to get more value from those FTs at a later stage.
Transfer issues of the week
Lots are looking to sell Bruno due to his injury, and Thiago is on the chopping block for many. I think that's more due to the appeal of Ekitike, who is now the only striker in the Liverpool team and has performed well recently.
I have disliked Cunha as a transfer, but now that Bruno is going alongside Mbeumo, Cunha will be the absolute main man in that attack and very likely to be on pens. At the same time, we lack midfield options with most of the good mid priced midfielders away at AFCON and Palmer probably not being investable just yet. I think Bruno to Cunha is the best simple move, as Cunha has also been red hot on underlying data the past 3 GWs. Wirtz is another option, but I don't like it as he is comparably not on pens and has yet to deliver in the Liverpool shirt - both actual offensive returns and good underlying data.
As for Thiago and Ekitike, I would stay away from that move too. Ekitike, just like Wirtz, is a booked transfer down the line, and Thiago is by no means a bad asset just because he has a couple of blanks. You can't expect much given the price you pay for him, and he is still nailed in the team and on pens.
As another note, Wolves are underestimated by many in my opinion. They are only slightly worse than the average PL team for xG conceded, yet people are treating them like Burnley. Wolves have underperformed their xG and xG conceded massively this season, so the Premier League table is not representative of their true level or performances. Wolves are actually a good defense away from home based on xG, indicating a pragmatic approach on the road, and likewise we see a Liverpool attack being worse at home than away based on xG. That being said, Wolves' xG is extremely bad, which all sends me more in the direction of Liverpool defensive assets than their attackers.
What am I looking at down the line
As mentioned, I think you should try and be robust over the coming period and be careful with spending your entire transfer bank. That being said, I would like to have the option of moving into certain players down the line.
GW19: Szoboszlai in for Semenyo
GW22: Palmer in for Foden (requires an enabling transfer)
GW24: Tavernier and Senesi in for Enzo and Van den Berg or Tarkowski (moves could even be in GW21)
None of these are locked in yet, although the Szoboszlai-move is very likely next week due to Semenyo leaving Bournemouth, which would make him irrelevant for FPL in the near team.
Team selection
I have already made the Bruno to Cunha move as you can see below. That means I have already spend 1 of my 3 free transfers.
I've had different secondary moves in play and even rolling the rest of the transfers. Andersen or Van den Berg to Keane or Virgil has been in play.
I have ended up on Andersen to Virgil for a few reasons:
Keane is a booked transfer out down the line, Virgil is a robust move
I believe Andersen is better than Van den Berg, but the way my team rotates, I only need my 5th defender in GW21 where Van den Berg has a much better fixture than Andersen
Haaland will captain the side. I would also stick with him if I owned Ekitike.
Good luck everyone and happy holidays!