Fantasy Portugal Gameweek 5: best buys, captain picks
Fantasy Portugal Gameweek 5 preview: double gameweek buys, differentials and captaincy
Fantasy Portugal Gameweek 5 is a double gameweek, and that single fact decides almost every transfer this week. Four clubs play twice between 6 and 10 September - Benfica, Braga, Estrela da Amadora and Moreirense - while the other fourteen play once. Two of those doubles are worth attacking, one is worth mining cheaply, and one is a trap.
Everyone will get to Vangelis Pavlidis. The gameweek is won in the six or seven squad slots after him: which mid-priced Benfica and Braga assets to double up on, which cheap Estrela minutes to buy for one gameweek, and which heavily owned Porto and Sporting players to move off before their single fixture costs you.
Gameweek 5 fixture overview
The four doubles, one row per club, with the model's own numbers for each leg:
| Club | Gameweek 5 fixtures | Win probability | Expected goals | Clean sheet chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benfica | [A]Maritimo → [A]Moreirense | 70% / 83% | 2.24 + 2.78 | 46% / 57% |
| Braga | [A]Alverca → [A]Estrela da Amadora | 53% / 57% | 1.78 + 1.75 | 34% / 42% |
| Estrela da Amadora | [H]Famalicao → [H]Braga | 29% / 18% | 1.03 + 0.87 | 28% / 17% |
| Moreirense | [A]FC Porto → [H]Benfica | 9% / 5% | 0.63 + 0.56 | 12% / 6% |
Benfica are the double to build around. Two away trips, but at Maritimo and Moreirense - 5.02 expected goals across the pair and a 46% then 57% clean sheet chance. That combination of attacking volume and defensive security is why Benfica occupy most of the top of the Gameweek 5 model.
Braga are the second double, with a caveat. Alverca away and Estrela away are winnable rather than easy, and Braga's rotation across a Sunday-Thursday pair is real: several of their assets project under 100 minutes for the two games combined. Pick the ones the model expects to play both.
Estrela da Amadora are a two-game volume play, not a clean sheet play. Two home games, but 28% and 17% clean sheet chances. What they offer is cheap players who are projected for 160+ minutes in a week where most of the league plays 90.
Moreirense are the trap. Two fixtures, 9% and 5% win probability, 12% and 6% clean sheet. Two games against the two best teams in the country is worse than one game against a mid-table side. Avoid.
Among the single-fixture sides, four stand out: Sporting CP [H]Nacional (78% win, 2.57 expected goals, 51% clean sheet), FC Porto [H]Moreirense (71%, 2.12, 53%), Vitoria de Guimaraes [H]Casa Pia (57%, 1.72, 42%) and Gil Vicente [H]Academico Viseu (53%, 1.62, 40%). Strong single fixtures - just not strong enough to beat two decent ones. The full round-by-round picture is on the Fantasy Portugal schedule page, and the underlying odds are on the market probabilities page.
Best buys for Gameweek 5: goalkeepers
This is the position where the double gameweek pays best, because two starts means two chances at a clean sheet and double the save volume - and Fantasy Portugal goalkeepers are cheap.
Samuel Soares (5.5m, Benfica) - 9.40 xP, the highest-scoring goalkeeper in the game this gameweek by nearly a full point. Two starts, a combined 1.01 expected clean sheets across the pair, and the highest projection of any player priced under 6.0m. His trajectory holds up too: 9.40 → 4.60 → 4.00 → 4.60 over Gameweeks 5 to 8, a decay-weighted score of 21.0 and a weighted points-per-million of 3.82.
Bernardo Fontes (5.0m, Braga) - 8.50 xP, and the best weighted value of any goalkeeper in the game at 3.87 per million. Braga's two away games carry a 34% and 42% clean sheet chance, which is lower than Benfica's, but the price difference funds an upgrade elsewhere. He is already 14.5% owned, so he is not a differential - he is simply correct.
Leonardo Linck (5.0m, Estrela da Amadora) - 7.40 xP at 1.0% ownership. This is the hidden gem of the position. Be clear about what you are buying: not clean sheets, but two home games and a very high save volume against Famalicao and Braga. A goalkeeper projected for 178 minutes at 5.0m in a week when most cost the same for 90 is a structural edge, and at 1% owned it is one almost nobody in your league will have.
Best buys for Gameweek 5: defenders
Fantasy Portugal caps you at three players from any one club, and the Benfica defence is where that limit bites hardest - four of their back line project above 7.00 xP and you can only own three Benfica players in total, goalkeeper and attackers included. Choose deliberately.
Alexander Bah (6.0m, Benfica) - 8.10 xP, the top-scoring defender in the gameweek. 151 projected minutes across the double, 0.18 expected goals and 0.18 expected assists on top of a 0.70 combined clean sheet expectation. Only 9.0% owned. Weighted score 15.79, weighted PPM 2.63.
Clement Lenglet (6.0m, Benfica) - 7.70 xP, 13.3% owned, and the most secure minutes of the Benfica back four at 156 projected across the two games. If you want one Benfica defender and want the safest one, it is Lenglet. Samuel Dahl (6.0m) at 7.60 xP and 161 minutes is functionally the same pick, and Tomas Araujo (6.0m) at 7.10 is the marginally weaker fourth option.
Gustaf Lagerbielke (6.0m, Braga) - 6.70 xP, 6.9% owned, 149 projected minutes across the double. He is the Braga defender the model is most confident starts twice, which is the whole question with Braga this week. Travassos (5.5m) scores slightly less at 6.40 and projects only 86 minutes across the pair - a real rotation risk at 14.4% ownership.
Budget pick: Luan Patrick (4.5m, Estrela da Amadora) - 5.90 xP at 1.8% ownership, and the best points-per-million of any defender in the gameweek at 1.31. He is projected for 166 minutes, the most of any defender in the game this week. At 4.5m he is a one-or-two-gameweek buy that frees up the money for a Benfica premium, and his weighted PPM of 3.12 says he is not a bad hold either. Rafa Soares (5.0m) from the same defence gives you 5.70 xP over 164 minutes if Luan Patrick is already taken.
Best buys for Gameweek 5: midfielders
Rafa Silva (10.0m, Benfica) - 9.80 xP, the highest-scoring midfielder in the game and the second-highest scorer overall. 0.76 expected goals and 0.28 expected assists across the double, plus a 0.67 clean sheet contribution. At 10.8% ownership he is both the best midfield pick and a differential against the field, which is an unusual combination and the reason he is the standout transfer of the gameweek.
Georgiy Sudakov (8.9m, Benfica) - 7.70 xP at 0.6% ownership. This is the biggest differential in the game right now. He matches Gianluca Prestianni's 7.70 xP exactly, and Prestianni is 41.9% owned. Same projection, one-seventieth of the ownership. Sudakov projects 135 minutes across the double with 0.37 expected goals and 0.28 expected assists.
Gianluca Prestianni (8.2m, Benfica) - 7.70 xP, 41.9% owned. Perfectly good, and the highest projected minutes of the Benfica attacking midfielders at 145. If you already own him there is no reason to sell; if you are buying in fresh, Sudakov gives the same points for the same reason at almost no ownership.
Value pick: Leandro Barreiro (6.5m, Benfica) - 7.40 xP for 6.5m, a points-per-million of 1.14 that beats every Benfica midfielder above him. 151 projected minutes, 5.8% owned. If the three-per-club cap forces a choice, Barreiro is the way to get Benfica midfield exposure without spending 10.0m.
Gabriel Silva (7.0m, Braga) - 6.80 xP, 6.3% owned, 140 projected minutes across the double and 0.42 expected goals. The best Braga midfielder for this gameweek and the one whose minutes the model trusts most.
Budget picks: Abraham Marcus (6.0m, Estrela da Amadora) at 6.60 xP over 159 minutes, and Ianis Stoica (5.5m, Estrela da Amadora) at 6.00 xP with a 77% penalty share. Stoica is 0.5% owned and takes the spot kicks for a side playing two home games - that is a genuine ceiling raiser at 5.5m and the best differential in the budget bracket. Marcus has a 23% penalty share as the backup taker.
Best buys for Gameweek 5: forwards
Vangelis Pavlidis (12.1m, Benfica) - 11.30 xP, the highest projection of any player in Fantasy Portugal this gameweek and the clear captain. 1.50 expected goals across the two fixtures, 0.25 expected assists, and an 81% penalty share. He is 71.0% owned, so buying him does not gain you rank - but not owning him for a double gameweek this good actively loses it.
Fran Navarro (7.5m, Braga) - 7.10 xP at 4.8% ownership, the second-best forward in the gameweek and the best differential in the position. 0.82 expected goals across Braga's two away trips, 132 projected minutes, and a 39% penalty share. At 7.5m he costs less than half of Pavlidis and returns nearly two-thirds of the points.
Leandro Antonetti (4.5m, Estrela da Amadora) - 4.40 xP for 4.5m, a points-per-million of 0.98 that is the best of any forward in the game. 133 projected minutes across two home games. He is a bench-filler or a fifteenth-man solution rather than a starter, but at that price with a double gameweek behind him he is the right one.
The forward line is thin beyond that. Nobody else in the position clears 5.00 xP, and the single-gameweek premiums are poor value this week - which brings us to the sell list.
Captain picks for Gameweek 5
1. Vangelis Pavlidis (12.1m, Benfica) - 11.30 xP. Two fixtures, 5.02 combined expected goals for his team, an 81% penalty share, and a 1.5-point gap to the next-best captain option. There is no argument this week. Captaining anyone else is a deliberate gamble against a very large edge.
2. Rafa Silva (10.0m, Benfica) - 9.80 xP. The correct armband if you do not own Pavlidis, and close enough that it is not a disaster if you do. Same two fixtures, same clean sheet upside, marginally less goal threat.
3. Samuel Soares (5.5m, Benfica) - 9.40 xP. Unorthodox, but a goalkeeper with a 57% clean sheet chance in one of his two games is a legitimate third option in a week where no non-Benfica outfielder gets past 7.10. Only consider it if you own neither of the two above.
Looking ahead, captaincy is a plan rather than a one-week pick: Pavlidis stays the top option in Gameweek 6 (5.30 xP, Benfica at home to Gil Vicente, 71% win probability) but drops to 3.30 in Gameweek 7 when Benfica travel to FC Porto. That is the gameweek to have an alternative premium already in the squad.
Who to sell before Gameweek 5
These are the heavily owned single-fixture players whose gameweek collapses relative to the doubles. None of them are bad footballers; they are simply the wrong shape for this week.
| Player | Price | Ownership | GW5 xP | The problem |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Diogo Costa (FC Porto) | 6.6m | 61.5% | 4.60 | One game; costs 4.80 xP against Soares at 5.5m |
| Jakub Kiwior (FC Porto) | 6.1m | 58.4% | 4.30 | One game; Bah costs 6.0m and returns 8.10 |
| Victor Froholdt (FC Porto) | 8.5m | 39.4% | 4.20 | 8.5m for the 45th-best projection this week |
| Goncalo Paciencia (Santa Clara) | 5.8m | 36.1% | 3.20 | Weakest weighted score of any 30%+ owned player |
| Luis Suarez (Sporting CP) | 12.4m | 20.8% | 4.90 | 0.40 points per million - worst premium in the game |
Diogo Costa is the single clearest downgrade of the gameweek. He is the second-most-owned player in Fantasy Portugal, he has one fixture, and moving to Samuel Soares gains 4.80 expected points while releasing 1.1m. Even against Bernardo Fontes at 5.0m the gain is 3.90 points and 1.6m. Sixty per cent of the field will not make that move, which is exactly why it is worth making.
Luis Suarez is the funding move if you need a Benfica premium. At 12.4m for 4.90 xP he returns 0.40 points per million this gameweek - the worst ratio of any premium in the game. Selling him pays for Pavlidis outright with change. Note that he recovers to 5.20 xP in Gameweek 7 when Sporting host Arouca, so this is a one-to-two-gameweek call rather than a permanent verdict.
One name that is not on this list: Maximiliano Araujo (7.1m, Sporting CP). At 26.0% ownership and 5.10 xP he is the best-scoring single-fixture defender in the game, and his weighted score of 16.21 is the highest of any defender over the next six gameweeks. Hold him.
Best Loan Rangers team for Gameweek 5
Fantasy Portugal's Loan Rangers chip is its free-hit-shaped chip: unlimited transfers for one gameweek, with the squad reverting at the next deadline. A double gameweek with four teams playing twice is exactly the shape of week it is designed for. This is the model's optimal one-gameweek squad, respecting the solver's spending ceiling, the three-per-club cap and the 2-5-5-3 squad structure, in a 3-5-2 formation:
| Position | Player | Club | Price | GW5 xP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GK | Bernardo Fontes | Braga | 5.0m | 8.50 |
| DEF | Alexander Bah | Benfica | 6.0m | 8.10 |
| DEF | Luan Patrick | Estrela da Amadora | 4.5m | 5.90 |
| DEF | Maximiliano Araujo | Sporting CP | 7.1m | 5.10 |
| MID | Rafa Silva | Benfica | 10.0m | 9.80 |
| MID | Gabriel Silva | Braga | 7.0m | 6.80 |
| MID | Abraham Marcus | Estrela da Amadora | 6.0m | 6.60 |
| MID | Ianis Stoica | Estrela da Amadora | 5.5m | 6.00 |
| MID | Rodrigo Zalazar | Sporting CP | 10.5m | 5.40 |
| FWD | Vangelis Pavlidis (C) | Benfica | 12.1m | 11.30 |
| FWD | Fran Navarro | Braga | 7.5m | 7.10 |
Starting eleven total: 80.6 xP, rising to 91.9 xP with Pavlidis captained, at a squad cost of 99.0m. Note the shape - a full three-player block from each of Benfica, Braga and Estrela da Amadora, which is the maximum the club cap allows, and every one of those nine players has two fixtures. The site solves this live and to the exact optimum, so check the current optimal teams for Fantasy Portugal before you play the chip; prices and projections move.
Before the Gameweek 5 deadline
The deadline is Sunday 6 September at 17:55, but Benfica's second fixture is on the 9th and Braga's on the 10th - so you are locking in a whole week of football, not one Sunday. Check the predicted lineups for Fantasy Portugal before you confirm, particularly for the Braga assets where the rotation risk across a Sunday-Thursday pair is real. Then compare the full pool on the Fantasy Portugal player picks page, which carries the projections for every player and every upcoming gameweek.
For last week's numbers and how the picks landed, see the Fantasy Portugal Gameweek 4 preview, and every round is collected in the Fantasy Portugal preview hub. New to how our projections are built? Start with the fantasy guides.
FAQ
Who should I captain in Fantasy Portugal Gameweek 5?
Vangelis Pavlidis. He projects 11.30 xP - 1.5 points clear of the next-best option - because Benfica play twice, at Maritimo and at Moreirense, with 5.02 combined expected goals and an 81% penalty share for Pavlidis. Rafa Silva at 9.80 xP is the alternative if you do not own Pavlidis, and Samuel Soares at 9.40 xP is a viable third option if you own neither.
Which teams have a double gameweek in Fantasy Portugal Gameweek 5?
Four clubs play twice: Benfica, Braga, Estrela da Amadora and Moreirense. Benfica are the double to build around (70% and 83% win probability), Braga are the second-best (53% and 57%), Estrela da Amadora are worth mining for cheap minutes despite low clean sheet odds, and Moreirense should be avoided entirely - they face FC Porto and Benfica with 9% and 5% win probability.
Should I sell Diogo Costa before Gameweek 5?
Yes, for this gameweek. Diogo Costa is 61.5% owned and projects 4.60 xP from FC Porto's single fixture. Samuel Soares at 5.5m projects 9.40 xP from Benfica's double and Bernardo Fontes at 5.0m projects 8.50 - so the swap gains between 3.90 and 4.80 expected points and releases money at the same time. It is the biggest single-transfer gain available this week.
Which budget defenders are best for Gameweek 5?
Luan Patrick of Estrela da Amadora at 4.5m. He projects 5.90 xP over 166 minutes - the most projected minutes of any defender in the gameweek - for a points-per-million of 1.31, the best in the position. His team-mate Rafa Soares at 5.0m is the alternative at 5.70 xP. Both are 2% owned or less, so they are differentials as well as savings.
Who are the best differentials in Fantasy Portugal Gameweek 5?
Georgiy Sudakov of Benfica at 8.9m is the standout: 7.70 xP at 0.6% ownership, the identical projection to the 41.9%-owned Gianluca Prestianni. Below him, Ianis Stoica (5.5m, Estrela da Amadora, 0.5% owned, 77% penalty share), Leonardo Linck (5.0m, Estrela da Amadora, 1.0% owned, 7.40 xP) and Fran Navarro (7.5m, Braga, 4.8% owned, 7.10 xP) all combine a double gameweek with ownership almost nobody in your league shares.
This preview was written by TheFantasyTool AI - verified by Nicolai @ TheFantasyTool