Fantasy Portugal 2026/2027 Round 4 Preview
Fantasy Portugal Round 4 preview: best buys, captain picks and hidden gems
Round 4 of Fantasy Portugal 2026/2027 looks simple on the surface - Benfica, FC Porto and Sporting CP all get a soft single fixture - and that is exactly why the round is decided somewhere else. Round 5 is a double round for Benfica, Braga and Estrela da Amadora, and with one free transfer per round the move you make now is what gets you into that double. The obvious names will be in most squads. The gap comes from the six or seven cheaper slots around them.
Round 4 fixtures: where the points are
Three matches carry the round. Sporting open it on Friday away at Rio Ave, Porto play Saturday at Academico Viseu, and Benfica close it out on Monday night at home to Estoril.
| Team | Fixture | Win probability | Expected goals | Clean sheet chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benfica | [H]Estoril | 80% | 3.06 | 41% |
| Estoril | [A]Benfica | 7% | 0.88 | 5% |
| FC Porto | [A]Academico Viseu | 73% | 2.20 | 53% |
| Academico Viseu | [H]FC Porto | 9% | 0.64 | 11% |
| Sporting CP | [A]Rio Ave | 72% | 2.41 | 45% |
| Rio Ave | [H]Sporting CP | 10% | 0.79 | 9% |
Porto's 53% clean sheet chance is the highest in the round, and it is backed by the season so far: three clean sheets in three league games, zero goals conceded, 0.93 expected goals conceded per game. Rio Ave are the other side of the same coin - 0.53 expected goals per game is the weakest attack in Liga Portugal this season, which is why Sporting's defenders price up almost as well as their forwards.
Looking one round ahead changes the shape of the round completely. In Round 5 Benfica play [A]Maritimo and [A]Moreirense, Braga play [A]Alverca and [A]Estrela da Amadora, and Estrela da Amadora host Famalicao and Braga. Moreirense also double - away at Porto and at home to Benfica - so that is a double to avoid, not to buy. Check the full programme on the Fantasy Portugal schedule before you commit a transfer.
Best goalkeeper picks for Round 4
D. Costa (6.5m, POR) is the best single-round goalkeeper at 4.6 xP, on the back of that 53% clean sheet chance and three shutouts in three. He is also the most-owned keeper in the game at 60%, so he protects your position rather than improving it.
The value alternative is M. Mendes (4.0m, ALV) - 4.5 xP for 4.0m is 1.12 points per million, the best rate of any goalkeeper in the round, and Alverca are at home to Santa Clara.
If you are already planning for the double, the two keepers to look at are S. Soares (5.5m, BEN) and B. Fontes (5.0m, BRA). Soares goes 4.4 in Round 4 and then 9.1 across the Benfica double; Fontes goes 4.1 then 8.4. Over a decay-weighted six-round horizon Soares leads all keepers at 19.4, with Fontes at 18.0 and D. Costa at 15.8. Compare all of them side by side on the Fantasy Portugal player picks page.
Best defenders for Round 4
M. Araujo (7.0m, SCP) tops the position at 6.1 xP. He is a full-back who attacks: 5 goals and 4 assists last season at 0.36 expected goal involvements per 90, and against a Rio Ave side generating half a goal a game he gets both the clean sheet and the attacking upside. Weighted six-round score 17.6, the highest of any defender.
A. Costa (6.5m, POR) is the differential of the round at just 4% ownership. He returns 5.9 xP, second only to Araujo, and the reason is his assist projection - 0.25 expected assists for this fixture alone, from a player who registered 8 assists last season. Add Porto's clean sheet floor and there is very little to dislike.
J. Bednarek (6.5m, POR) is the pure clean sheet play at 5.2 xP and a 52% shutout chance. I. Fresneda (6.0m, SCP) matches him at 5.2 with only 3.5% ownership. Remember the three-players-per-club cap: a Porto keeper plus two defenders already uses your allocation.
Budget pick: T. Esgaio (5.0m, ARO) at 4.5 xP, with Arouca at home to Maritimo. Cheaper still and pointed at the double, L. Patrick (4.5m, Estrela da Amadora) goes 3.7 in Round 4 and 6.2 across two home games in Round 5 - a two-round pick at the lowest price in the position.
The Benfica route into the double is S. Dahl (6.0m, BEN): 4.2 now, then 8.2 over the double, 16.7 weighted. Predicted starting elevens for all of them are on the Fantasy Portugal predicted lineups page.
Best midfielders for Round 4
R. Zalazar (10.6m, SCP) is the highest-scoring midfielder in the round at 6.5 xP and the closest thing this game has to a template pick at 47% ownership. Last season he produced 16 goals from 12.01 xG at 0.77 expected goal involvements per 90 - a genuine goal threat from midfield, not a passenger.
W. Gomes (8.5m, POR) is the pick that actually separates squads. He is owned by 1.9% of managers and projects 5.6 xP, level with far more popular options, and the model hands him an 83% share of Porto's penalties. His underlying numbers are the best of any Porto midfielder this season: 0.84 expected goal involvements per 90 across 200 minutes, after 8 goals from 1,168 minutes last season.
G. Veiga (8.1m, POR) is right behind at 5.5 xP with 2 goals and 1 assist in 221 minutes this season - 1.19 expected goal involvements per 90, the highest figure in this whole list. G. Catamo (8.5m, SCP) returns 5.6 xP with three assists already this season, and I. Doumbia (7.5m, SCP) gives you the same fixture 1.0m cheaper at 5.7 xP.
Budget pick: A. Trezza (6.0m, ARO) at 5.0 xP is 0.83 points per million, the best rate of any midfielder near his price. He is a legitimate one-round buy at 6.0m even if you move him on again.
The two double-round midfielders are where the season is won. R. Silva (10.0m, BEN) goes 5.7 then 11.1, a three-round total of 21.7 and a weighted score of 22.4 - the best of any midfielder. R. Horta (10.0m, BRA) reads 4.8 then 10.4 then 6.3 for 21.5 over three rounds, and he carries a 57% penalty share. Horta is projected for 51 minutes in Round 4 as he builds back up, so the case for him is Round 5 onwards rather than this weekend.
Best forwards for Round 4
V. Pavlidis (12.0m, BEN) is the best forward in the game and the most-owned player at 66%. He returns 6.7 xP at home to an Estoril side with a 5% clean sheet chance, takes Benfica's penalties, and has started the season with 4 goals from 2.52 xG in two appearances - 1.83 expected goal involvements per 90, after 22 goals last season. His weighted six-round score of 24.9 is the highest in the game, driven by 12.2 xP in the Round 5 double.
L. Suarez (12.4m, SCP) is the alternative at 6.2 xP. He scored 28 goals from 23.03 xG last season at 0.97 expected goal involvements per 90, and although he has been eased in with only 128 minutes across the first three rounds, the model now has him at a full 90 against the league's weakest attack.
A. Silva (10.0m, POR) at 4.9 xP is the third premium worth a look. Below those three the position is thin - the next best forward projects 3.8 - so if you need a cheap enabler, I. Barbero (5.5m, ARO) at 3.8 xP with an 84% penalty share is the least bad option rather than a recommendation.
Captain picks for Round 4
| Rank | Player | Price | xP | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | V. Pavlidis (BEN) | 12.0m | 6.70 | Home to a 5%-clean-sheet defence, penalties, 3.06 team expected goals |
| 2 | R. Zalazar (SCP) | 10.6m | 6.50 | The safe 90 minutes; Pavlidis is projected for 61 |
| 3 | L. Suarez (SCP) | 12.4m | 6.20 | Best attack against the league's weakest, but minutes risk |
Pavlidis is the captain. The one caveat is minutes - he is projected for 61, not 90, which is why Zalazar at a full 90 minutes is the lower-variance armband if you prefer the floor. Captaincy is also a plan, not a single pick: Pavlidis projects 12.2 xP in the Round 5 double, so owning him now sets up two consecutive rounds of armband rather than one.
Who to sell before Round 4
Y. Begraoui (7.5m, Estoril) is the clear sell. He is 37% owned, he is Estoril's penalty taker, and he scored 20 goals last season - none of which helps when his side travel to Benfica with a 7% win probability and a 4% clean sheet chance. He projects 3.4 xP, less than several 4.5m defenders.
J. Kiwior (6.1m, POR) is a harder call, because 4.9 xP this round is fine. The problem is the direction of travel: 4.9, then 4.6, then 4.0, then 2.8 when Porto meet Benfica in Round 7. Two of his own team-mates project better this round for a similar price, and with the three-per-club cap he is the one to move on at 57% ownership.
R. Pinheiro (5.5m, FAM) reads 3.9, 3.7, then 2.4 and is owned by 26% - a template defender whose programme is collapsing. L. Carevic (5.0m, FAM) at 24% ownership is a reasonable 4.3 xP this round, but he has no double round coming, which is the whole argument for moving to Soares or Fontes instead.
Best Loan Rangers team for Round 4
Fantasy Portugal's Loan Rangers chip gives you unlimited transfers for one round with no club restrictions, so it is the closest thing this game has to a Free Hit. Round 5 is the better round to hold it for - four teams play twice - but if you are playing it now, this is the highest-scoring legal squad at exactly 100.0m, projecting 62.0 xP from the starting eleven in a 4-5-1:
| Position | Player | Price | Ownership | xP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GK | M. Mendes (ALV) | 4.0m | 14.1% | 4.50 |
| DEF | M. Araujo (SCP) | 7.0m | 20.5% | 6.10 |
| DEF | A. Costa (POR) | 6.5m | 4.0% | 5.90 |
| DEF | J. Bednarek (POR) | 6.5m | 24.1% | 5.20 |
| DEF | I. Fresneda (SCP) | 6.0m | 3.5% | 5.20 |
| MID | R. Zalazar (SCP) | 10.6m | 46.7% | 6.50 |
| MID | I. Doumbia (SCP) | 7.5m | 29.7% | 5.70 |
| MID | G. Catamo (SCP) | 8.5m | 12.2% | 5.60 |
| MID | W. Gomes (POR) | 8.5m | 1.9% | 5.60 |
| MID | A. Trezza (ARO) | 6.0m | 5.5% | 5.00 |
| FWD | V. Pavlidis (BEN) | 12.0m | 66.0% | 6.70 |
Five Sporting players is only legal because Loan Rangers removes the three-per-club cap - without the chip you would swap one of them for another Porto or Arouca asset. Captain Pavlidis. The remaining 16.9m goes on four cheap bench fillers, since none of them score. Our solver runs this live against the current numbers, so use the optimal teams for Fantasy Portugal page for the exact optimum at the moment you build it.
Transfer summary
- Buy now: A. Costa (6.5m) or M. Araujo (7.0m) in defence, W. Gomes (8.5m) in midfield.
- Buy for the double: R. Silva (10.0m), S. Dahl (6.0m), S. Soares (5.5m), B. Fontes (5.0m).
- Sell: Y. Begraoui (7.5m), J. Kiwior (6.1m), R. Pinheiro (5.5m).
- Captain: V. Pavlidis, with R. Zalazar as the safer 90-minute option.
Win probabilities and clean sheet odds for every fixture are on the Fantasy Portugal market probabilities page. More rounds are covered in our Fantasy Portugal preview hub - including the Round 3 preview - and if you are new to the game, start with our fantasy football guides.
FAQ
Who should I captain in Fantasy Portugal Round 4?
V. Pavlidis (12.0m, BEN) is the top captain pick at 6.70 xP. Benfica are at home to Estoril with 3.06 expected goals and Estoril have just a 5% clean sheet chance, and Pavlidis takes the penalties. If you want the safer floor, R. Zalazar (10.6m, SCP) is projected for a full 90 minutes at 6.50 xP against the league's weakest attack, while Pavlidis is projected for 61.
Which players should I buy in Fantasy Portugal Round 4?
M. Araujo (7.0m, SCP) at 6.1 xP and A. Costa (6.5m, POR) at 5.9 xP are the two best defenders, and W. Gomes (8.5m, POR) is the best-value midfielder at 5.6 xP. If you are already planning for the Round 5 double, R. Silva (10.0m, BEN) and R. Horta (10.0m, BRA) both project above 10 xP for that round.
What are the best differentials for Fantasy Portugal Round 4?
W. Gomes (8.5m, POR) is owned by 1.9% of managers, projects 5.6 xP and holds an 83% penalty share with 0.84 expected goal involvements per 90 this season. A. Costa (6.5m, POR) at 4% ownership is the best low-owned defender at 5.9 xP, and I. Fresneda (6.0m, SCP) offers 5.2 xP at 3.5% ownership.
Who should I sell in Fantasy Portugal Round 4?
Y. Begraoui (7.5m, Estoril) is the main sell: 37% owned but travelling to Benfica with a 7% win probability and only 3.4 xP. J. Kiwior (6.1m, POR) is the other one, with a schedule that reads 4.9, 4.6, 4.0 then 2.8, and R. Pinheiro (5.5m, FAM) declines from 3.9 to 2.4 over the same window.
Which teams have a double round in Fantasy Portugal Round 5?
Benfica ([A]Maritimo and [A]Moreirense), Braga ([A]Alverca and [A]Estrela da Amadora) and Estrela da Amadora (home to Famalicao and Braga) all play twice. Moreirense also play twice, but away at FC Porto and at home to Benfica, so their assets are a fixture to avoid rather than a double to target.
This preview was written by TheFantasyTool AI - verified by Nicolai @ TheFantasyTool