Fantasy Portugal 2026/2027 Round 3 Preview
Fantasy Portugal round 3 preview: captain picks, best buys and the blank-round trap
Round 3 of Fantasy Portugal 2026/2027 is not a normal round. Only seven of the nine fixtures are being played — Benfica, Braga, Moreirense and Estrela da Amadora have no game at all. Every player at those four clubs is projected at 0.0 predicted points (pP), and that includes the single most-owned asset in the game. The deadline is Saturday 22 August at 15:25, with the first match kicking off at 16:30.
So the round is decided in two places, and neither of them is the obvious one. First: can you field eleven players who actually play? Second: which of the mid-priced names in the seven live fixtures outscore the premiums that everyone spent their budget on? The answers below come from our model's per-fixture projections — you can see the full table any time on the Fantasy Portugal player picks page.
Round 3 fixtures: where the points are
Two home fixtures dominate. Sporting CP host Alverca and FC Porto host Arouca, and those are the only two teams the model gives a 78% win probability. Porto's clean-sheet number is the best in the round.
| Team | Fixture | Win probability | Expected goals | Clean sheet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting CP | [H]Alverca | 78% | 2.67 | 50% |
| Alverca | [A]Sporting CP | 7% | 0.70 | 7% |
| FC Porto | [H]Arouca | 78% | 2.41 | 57% |
| Arouca | [A]FC Porto | 6% | 0.56 | 9% |
| Gil Vicente | [H]Casa Pia AC | 55% | 1.54 | 46% |
| Casa Pia AC | [A]Gil Vicente | 18% | 0.77 | 22% |
| Vitória de Guimarães | [H]Nacional | 55% | 1.74 | 39% |
| Nacional | [A]Vitória de Guimarães | 20% | 0.95 | 18% |
The one worth flagging beyond the big two is Gil Vicente. A 55% win probability is only middling, but a 46% clean-sheet chance against a Casa Pia side projected for 0.77 goals is the third-best defensive fixture of the round — and Gil Vicente's defenders cost 5.0m. That combination is where the value sits this week. The remaining three games (Estoril–Rio Ave, Marítimo–Académico Viseu, Santa Clara–Famalicão) are close to coin flips; you can check every match's numbers on the Fantasy Portugal market probabilities page, and the full fixture list on the FPO schedule.
The blank teams get a double in round 5 — do not panic-sell
This matters more than the blank itself. All four blanking teams have two fixtures in round 5. Benfica play [A]Marítimo and [A]Moreirense, and the model has that pair at 67% and 83% win probability with 2.30 and 2.78 expected goals. Braga get [A]Alverca and [A]Estrela da Amadora.
The effect on the projections is dramatic: Pavlidis (12.0m, BEN) reads 0.0 → 6.4 → 11.4 across rounds 3, 4 and 5, for a weighted six-round score of 17.4 — the highest of any forward in the game. Ricardo Horta (10.0m, BRA) runs 0.0 → 5.2 → 11.0, weighted 17.4. Selling either to survive one blank round, then paying to buy back before the double, is the classic way to lose points in a game with one free transfer and a 4-point hit. Bench them, don't sell them.
Best buys by position
Goalkeeper
Diogo Costa (6.5m, POR) — 4.8 pP, on the back of the round's best clean-sheet projection at 57%. He is already the second most-owned player in the game at 58.7%, so this is a hold rather than a differential, and he has banked 14 points across the first two rounds.
If you would rather spend the money elsewhere, the budget option is genuinely good. Alfonso Pastor (4.5m, MAR) projects 4.4 pP at home to Académico Viseu — that is 0.98 points per million, the best of any goalkeeper in the round, and he is owned by just 6.1%. Oliwier Zych (5.0m, VIT) at 4.2 pP and 1.1% ownership is the same idea behind Guimarães' 39% clean-sheet fixture.
Defenders
This is the deepest position in the round and where the round is won.
| Player | Team | Price | Owned | R3 pP | 6-round weighted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan Bednarek | FC Porto | 6.5m | 22.2% | 5.8 | 18.0 |
| Maximiliano Araujo | Sporting CP | 7.0m | 18.9% | 5.5 | 17.9 |
| Ricardo Esgaio | Gil Vicente | 5.0m | 9.4% | 5.4 | 14.3 |
| Jakub Kiwior | FC Porto | 6.0m | 56.7% | 5.2 | 15.5 |
| Gonçalo Inacio | Sporting CP | 6.5m | 21.9% | 5.0 | 16.1 |
| George Vagiannidis | Sporting CP | 5.5m | 1.1% | 4.9 | 13.8 |
Bednarek (6.5m, POR) is the best defender in the game right now, not just this round. He runs 5.8 → 5.3 → 5.1 over rounds 3 to 5 and tops the position on the weighted six-round score at 18.0. He is projected for 87 minutes, has 14 points already banked, and Porto's 57% clean-sheet fixture is the best defensive spot on the card. If you own only one Porto defender, the model prefers him to the far more popular Kiwior.
Maximiliano Araujo (7.0m, SPO) is the attacking version of the same bet: 5.5 pP this round, 0.19 projected assists, and the second-best weighted score in the position at 17.9. He is the pick if you want Sporting's clean sheet plus a real chance of an attacking return.
The budget defender to buy: Ricardo Esgaio (5.0m, GIL). 5.4 pP at 5.0m is 1.08 points per million — the best PPM of any defender in the round, premiums included. He is owned by 9.4% and projected for 80 minutes behind that 46% clean-sheet fixture. His club-mates Jonathan Buatu (5.0m) and Marvin Gilbert (5.0m) both read 4.8 pP if Esgaio is already in your squad. Remember the cap: you may hold a maximum of three players from any one club, so a Gil Vicente defensive block is legal but it uses your whole allocation there.
Hidden gem: George Vagiannidis (5.5m, SPO) at 1.1% ownership and 4.9 pP. He is the cheapest route into Sporting's 50% clean sheet, projects 72 minutes and 0.18 assists, and almost nobody owns him. Whether he starts is the question — check the Fantasy Portugal predicted lineups before the deadline, and if he is out, Eduardo Quaresma (5.5m, 4.1 pP) is the same fixture at a higher floor.
Midfielders
Geny Catamo (8.5m, SPO) has the highest projection of any player in round 3 at 6.0 pP, and he is owned by only 11.3%. The reason is his penalty involvement: the model gives him a 0.71 share of Sporting's penalties on top of 0.40 projected goals and 0.23 assists at home to a side given a 7% chance of winning. He is the round's headline buy.
Gabriel Veiga (8.0m, POR) is the steadier version: 5.8 pP, 15 points already banked in the first two rounds, and a weighted six-round score of 17.9 that is the best of any midfielder outside the blanking clubs. If you can only afford one 8m midfielder for the long run, the projections favour Veiga over Catamo.
William Gomes (8.5m, POR) is the differential in that bracket — 5.6 pP, 0.47 projected goals (the highest of any midfielder in the round) and a 0.43 penalty share, at 2.0% ownership. The catch is 59 projected minutes, so he carries real rotation risk.
The best cheap midfielder in the game this week: Joelson Fernandes (5.5m, GIL). 5.5 pP for 5.5m is 1.00 points per million, he is projected for 83 minutes, and he holds an 0.88 penalty share for Gil Vicente with their nominal taker not expected to feature. Ownership is 1.5%. There is not a better value pick on the card.
Two more penalty-heavy value options: Samu (6.5m, VIT) at 5.2 pP with a 0.94 penalty share and 13 points already scored, and Martín Tejón (5.5m, MAR) at 5.0 pP with a 1.00 penalty share — every Marítimo penalty is his. João Carvalho (7.0m, EST) at 5.1 pP rounds out the group, and his run improves again in rounds 7 and 8 (4.5 in both).
Forwards
Be honest about this position: with Benfica and Braga blank, round 3 has no elite forward. The highest-projected striker on the card manages 5.0 pP, which several 5.0m defenders beat. Do not pay up here this week.
Yanis Begraoui (7.5m, EST) leads the position at 5.0 pP, with 0.48 projected goals and a 0.93 penalty share at home to Rio Ave. He is 37.8% owned, so this is a hold, not a move.
The value pick is Adrián Butzke (5.5m, MAR) — 4.6 pP at 0.84 points per million and 2.8% ownership, with 0.35 projected goals. Alioune Ndoye (6.5m, VIT) at 4.4 pP and 4.3% ownership is the alternative if you want Guimarães exposure instead.
A word on Fotis Ioannidis (9.6m, SPO): he is the top-scoring Sporting player so far with 20 points from two rounds, but the model has him at only 4.3 pP this week on 61 projected minutes. That is a rotation call, not a fixture problem. If he is confirmed to start he beats his projection comfortably; if he is not, Butzke at 4.1m less is the better use of the money.
Captain picks for round 3
Only four players clear 5.5 pP in this round, and two of them are defenders, so the captaincy shortlist is short.
- Geny Catamo (8.5m, SPO) — 6.0 pP, the highest in the round. Home to a side with a 7% win probability, 0.71 penalty share, and Sporting projected for 2.67 goals. He is the captain.
- Gabriel Veiga (8.0m, POR) — 5.8 pP. Marginally lower ceiling, noticeably higher floor: 69 projected minutes against 65 for Catamo, and Porto's 57% clean sheet gives him a second route to points.
- William Gomes (8.5m, POR) — 5.6 pP and the best goal projection in the round at 0.47. The aggressive pick, undercut by 59 projected minutes.
If you want the safest possible armband, Jan Bednarek matches Veiga at 5.8 pP with 87 projected minutes — but a centre-back's ceiling is capped, so he is the floor play rather than the points play. More on how to weigh floor against ceiling in our guide on how to pick your fantasy captain every week.
Plan two rounds ahead. Captaincy is a sequence, not a single choice. Round 4 sends Benfica home to Estoril at an 80% win probability and 3.07 expected goals, where Pavlidis jumps to 6.4 pP. Round 5 is his double, at 11.4 pP. If you own Pavlidis, your next two armbands are already decided — which is another reason not to sell him during the blank.
Who to sell
These are the widely-owned players whose numbers do not support the price, in a round where you need your money working.
- Luís Suárez (12.4m, SPO) — 19.6% owned and the most expensive player in the game, projected for just 1.6 pP in the best attacking fixture of the round. His weighted six-round score is 7.5, which is worse than several 4.5m goalkeepers. He is not in Sporting's plans on these numbers, and 12.4m tied up in him is the single biggest drag on a squad right now. Sell.
- Pau Victor (9.0m, BRA) — 16.1% owned, blank this round, and the projections do not recover afterwards: 1.4 in round 4 and 2.6 on the double in round 5, for a weighted 4.4. Unlike Horta, he is not worth keeping through the blank.
- Victor Gomez (6.0m, BRA) — 16.4% owned, weighted 4.3. Same conclusion: this is a Braga asset with no share of the round-5 double, so the blank costs you a week for nothing.
- Gonçalo Paciencia (5.6m, SCL) — 22.4% owned but only 3.1 pP this round and a weighted 9.6. Butzke at 5.5m projects higher this week and over the horizon.
Note who is not on that list: Pavlidis, Horta, Rafael Fernandes, Travassos and Bernardo Fontes all score 0.0 this round and are all keeps. A blank followed by a double is not a reason to sell.
Building the squad
The shape of a good round-3 squad is a heavy defensive investment and a light attack. Porto and Sporting give you the two best clean sheets and the two best captains; Gil Vicente gives you three 5.0m defenders behind a 46% clean sheet; the forward line is where you save money, because the best striker on the card projects lower than a 5.0m defender does. Respect the three-per-club cap when you stack, and never add a second player from a club just for correlation if he is not a good pick on his own merits.
For the exact optimum under your budget and formation, the site solves it live — see the optimal teams for Fantasy Portugal. If the pP numbers used throughout this article are new to you, start with what predicted points actually measure and how fixture difficulty is calculated.
FAQ
Who should I captain in Fantasy Portugal round 3?
Geny Catamo (8.5m, Sporting CP). He has the highest projection in the round at 6.0 pP, holds a 0.71 share of Sporting's penalties, and plays at home against Alverca, who are given a 7% chance of winning and 0.70 expected goals. Gabriel Veiga (8.0m, FC Porto) at 5.8 pP is the higher-floor alternative, with William Gomes (8.5m, FC Porto) at 5.6 pP the aggressive third option.
Which teams do not play in Fantasy Portugal round 3?
Benfica, Braga, Moreirense and Estrela da Amadora have no fixture in round 3, so every player at those clubs is projected at 0.0 pP. All four then play twice in round 5 — Benfica away at Marítimo and Moreirense, Braga away at Alverca and Estrela da Amadora. Bench those players for one week rather than selling them.
Should I sell Pavlidis before round 3?
No. He scores nothing this round, but he is projected at 6.4 pP in round 4 and 11.4 pP on the round-5 double, giving him the highest weighted six-round score of any forward in the game at 17.4. With one free transfer and a 4-point hit, selling and buying back costs more than the blank does.
What are the best cheap picks for round 3?
Joelson Fernandes (5.5m, Gil Vicente) at 5.5 pP is the standout — 1.00 points per million, 83 projected minutes and an 0.88 penalty share. Ricardo Esgaio (5.0m, Gil Vicente) leads all defenders on 1.08 points per million at 5.4 pP, and Alfonso Pastor (4.5m, Marítimo) is the best-value goalkeeper at 4.4 pP.
Who is the best differential in Fantasy Portugal round 3?
George Vagiannidis (5.5m, Sporting CP) at 1.1% ownership and 4.9 pP is the cheapest way into Sporting's 50% clean sheet. Joelson Fernandes (1.5% owned) and William Gomes (2.0% owned) are the attacking equivalents. Confirm all three in the predicted lineups before the deadline, because each carries some rotation risk.
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This preview was written by TheFantasyTool AI - verified by Nicolai @ TheFantasyTool