Fantasy Portugal Gameweek 12: captain picks, best buys

Fantasy Portugal Gameweek 12 preview: best buys, captain picks and differentials

Fantasy Portugal Gameweek 12 comes after the international break, with the deadline on 27 November. The headline fixture is FC Porto - Sporting CP, and it shapes the whole round. Both title rivals take points off each other while Benfica host Famalicao, which makes Benfica's run the one to build around. The decision you make this Gameweek is about more than one week, though: Sporting's best fixtures come straight after Porto, and Porto's defence improves over the next three.

All numbers below come from our model and are expected points (xP) per Gameweek. You can sort the full list on our Fantasy Portugal player picks page, check who is expected to start on the predicted lineups for Fantasy Portugal, and see what we wrote a round ago in the Fantasy Portugal Gameweek 11 preview.

Gameweek 12 to 14 fixtures: whose next three are worth owning

Benfica have the best three-Gameweek run in the game: [H]Famalicao → [A]Nacional → [H]Braga adds up to 6.43 expected goals and 1.36 expected clean sheets. Famalicao is the best fixture of the round, with a 71% win probability and a 49% clean sheet chance. The Braga home game in Gameweek 14 is the toughest of the three, but Benfica are still at home.

Sporting CP have the second-best attacking run at 5.59 expected goals, but the order matters. [A]FC Porto → [H]Maritimo → [A]Gil Vicente means the weak week comes first. That makes Sporting assets Gameweek 13 buys, not Gameweek 12 buys. FC Porto go the other way: [H]Sporting CP → [A]Santa Clara → [H]Estrela da Amadora gets easier each week and carries 1.35 expected clean sheets, almost level with Benfica.

Below the big three, Vitoria de Guimaraes have the steadiest mid-table run. [H]Estrela da Amadora → [A]Estoril → [H]Alverca is worth 4.52 expected goals and 1.10 expected clean sheets. At the bottom, Estrela da Amadora face [A]Vitoria de Guimaraes → [H]Gil Vicente → [A]FC Porto, the worst run in the league at 2.60 expected goals and 0.61 expected clean sheets.

The eight best three-Gameweek runs, plus the two weakest, sorted by expected goals over Gameweeks 12 to 14. "3-round CS" is the number of clean sheets the team is expected to keep across the three games.

The full fixture grid, with every team's next six Gameweeks, is on the Fantasy Portugal schedule, and the bookmaker numbers behind these probabilities are on the Fantasy Portugal market probabilities page.

Best Gameweek 12 goalkeepers

Samuel Soares (5.5m, Benfica) is the goalkeeper to buy, with the program [H]Famalicao → [A]Nacional → [H]Braga. His 4.6 → 4.6 → 4.3 adds up to 13.5 xP, the most of any keeper over the three Gameweeks, and only 6.3% of managers own him. Benfica keep a clean sheet in Famalicao's visit 49% of the time, the best number of the round.

Diogo Costa (6.7m, FC Porto) is the keeper most managers already have, at 63.7%, and he is a hold. Sporting away is his hardest game in the window, then [A]Santa Clara → [H]Estrela da Amadora lift him 3.9 → 4.4 → 4.6. That is a rising trajectory and 12.9 xP over three, so there is no reason to move him.

The rankings disagree here. Bernardo Fontes (5.0m, Braga) out-scores Costa this Gameweek, 4.4 to 3.9, at [A]Casa Pia AC. But Braga visit Benfica in Gameweek 14 and he drops to 3.5, so Costa is ahead over the three and is the one to keep.

For a cheaper keeper, Matheus Mendes (4.0m, Alverca) has [A]Academico Viseu → [H]Moreirense → [A]Vitoria de Guimaraes and projects 4.1 → 4.2 → 3.8, which is 12.1 xP at the lowest price in the position. Lucas Furtado (4.0m, Vitoria de Guimaraes) is the differential at 0.2% ownership. He has 4.3 in Gameweek 12 against Estrela da Amadora, then [A]Estoril → [H]Alverca at 3.7 and 3.5.

Best Gameweek 12 defenders

Benfica's full-backs are the premium defensive buys. Samuel Dahl (6.2m, Benfica) and Alexander Bah (6.1m, Benfica) both carry the [H]Famalicao → [A]Nacional → [H]Braga program and project 5.0 → 5.1 → 4.3 and 5.0 → 5.1 → 4.2, the two highest three-Gameweek totals of any defender (14.4 and 14.3). Dahl is owned by 14.9%. Bah is the same returns at 6.0%, which makes him one of the best differentials in the game. Owning one of them alongside Samuel Soares doubles up on the same Benfica clean sheet.

Jan Bednarek (6.9m, FC Porto) is the Porto defender to own for the run rather than the round. [H]Sporting CP → [A]Santa Clara → [H]Estrela da Amadora takes him 3.5 → 4.3 → 4.8, and he is still at 4.6 and 5.0 in Gameweeks 15 and 16. Jakub Kiwior (6.3m), owned by 62.4%, follows the same curve at 3.3 → 4.1 → 4.7 and is a clear hold.

The cheap Arouca right-back Tiago Esgaio (5.0m, Arouca) is the best defender per million this Gameweek, with 4.9 xP at [H]Rio Ave. His program is [H]Rio Ave → [A]Braga → [A]Academico Viseu, and he recovers to 4.5 after the Braga dip, so he is a three-Gameweek pick and not a one-week rotation. This is where the rankings split: Esgaio out-scores Bednarek by 1.4 this Gameweek, but Bednarek is level over the three (12.6 to 12.4) and still rising. If you are buying one defender to keep, buy Bednarek. If you need the money elsewhere, Esgaio is the pick.

Vitoria de Guimaraes give you the best value for the run. Tony Strata (5.1m, Vitoria de Guimaraes) plays [H]Estrela da Amadora → [A]Estoril → [H]Alverca and projects 4.4 → 3.9 → 4.1. That flat line makes him a defender you can buy and stop thinking about. He is owned by 3.8%, and teammate Joao Mendes (5.0m) is the near-identical alternative at 12.0 xP.

Sporting's defenders are a Gameweek 13 move. Goncalo Inacio (6.3m) goes 3.1 → 5.4 → 4.0 and Maximiliano Araujo (7.4m) goes 2.5 → 5.5 → 3.6. If you have Araujo, keep him through Porto: he is back to 5.5 against Maritimo and 5.5 again in Gameweek 15. Rodrigo Pinheiro (5.4m, Famalicao) is projected for no minutes in Gameweek 12 but returns at 4.7 in Gameweek 13 against Academico Viseu, so he is a hold for anyone with a bench spot to cover him.

The optimal teams for Fantasy Portugal will show you how many of these defenders fit next to the premium attackers this week.

Best Gameweek 12 midfielders

Gianluca Prestianni (8.7m, Benfica) is the best midfielder over the next three, at 5.4 → 5.6 → 4.6 with the [H]Famalicao → [A]Nacional → [H]Braga program. He stays at 5.9 in Gameweek 15. He is owned by 61.5% and is a hold, not a differentiator. The decisions that move ranks are the ones below him.

Ricardo Horta (9.9m, Braga) is the premium differential at 6.9% ownership. [A]Casa Pia AC → [H]Arouca gives him 5.0 and 4.9, joint-third among all players this Gameweek. Then Braga visit Benfica and he drops to 3.2. Treat him as a two-Gameweek buy and plan to sell before Gameweek 14.

Pepe (7.9m, FC Porto) is the rising option: [H]Sporting CP → [A]Santa Clara → [H]Estrela da Amadora takes him 3.6 → 3.9 → 4.9. He plays 73 minutes a game in our model and only 3.0% own him. Buying him now gets you in before the best part of Porto's run.

Sorriso (7.0m, Famalicao) is a Gameweek 13 buy. A visit to Benfica caps him at 3.4 this Gameweek, but [H]Academico Viseu → [A]Moreirense takes him to 5.4 and 4.4. He has the second-highest three-Gameweek total of any midfielder at 13.2 and plays 78 minutes. Wait a Gameweek on this one.

For mid-price picks, Samu (6.4m, Vitoria de Guimaraes) is Vitoria's penalty taker and projects 4.4 → 4.0 → 4.1 on the [H]Estrela da Amadora → [A]Estoril → [H]Alverca run, one of the flattest lines in the game. Chiquinho (5.7m, Alverca) has [A]Academico Viseu → [H]Moreirense → [A]Vitoria de Guimaraes and 4.4 → 4.5 → 3.3, so two good weeks before a harder one.

The budget pick is Martin Tejon (5.5m, Maritimo), with [H]Nacional → [A]Sporting CP → [H]Rio Ave. He has 4.2 this Gameweek, the best per-million return of any midfielder at 5.5m or less. He dips to 2.9 at Sporting before returning to 4.0, so he is an 11.1-xP enabler rather than a three-week star. Murilo (6.3m, Gil Vicente) projects 4.9 against Estoril, but his 3.9 → 3.1 after it makes him a one-Gameweek play.

Best Gameweek 12 forwards

Vangelis Pavlidis (12.2m, Benfica) is the best player in the game over the horizon. Benfica's penalty taker projects 5.5 → 5.8 → 4.8 for 16.1 xP on [H]Famalicao → [A]Nacional → [H]Braga, and he is back to 5.2 in Gameweek 15. He is owned by 73.7%. If you do not have him, he is the transfer to make this week.

Luis Suárez (12.8m, Sporting CP) is the hard call. He projects only 2.2 at Porto, on 36 expected minutes, but then 5.5 against Maritimo and 6.2 against Estoril in Gameweek 15. Selling him for one bad week and buying him back costs two transfers, so hold him. If you are thinking of buying him, do it for Gameweek 13, not now.

Among the cheaper forwards, Ivan Barbero (5.8m, Arouca) is Arouca's penalty taker and projects 4.1 against Rio Ave. His [H]Rio Ave → [A]Braga → [A]Academico Viseu program dips in the middle (2.9 at Braga) and recovers to 3.5, which adds up to 10.5 xP: the best total of any forward under 9m. Adrián Butzke (5.4m, Maritimo) is the same profile for 1.9% ownership. Maritimo's penalty taker has [H]Nacional → [A]Sporting CP → [H]Rio Ave and projects 3.7 → 2.5 → 3.5. Jalen Blesa (6.9m, Rio Ave) is the most dependable of the three, with 82 expected minutes and a flat 3.2 → 3.6 → 3.2 on [A]Arouca → [H]Casa Pia AC → [A]Maritimo.

Gameweek 12 captain picks

The captain scores double in Fantasy Portugal, and the choice this Gameweek is clear.

1. Vangelis Pavlidis (12.2m, Benfica): 5.5 xP against Famalicao, the highest in the game, and on penalties. His program is [H]Famalicao → [A]Nacional → [H]Braga, and he is also the top projection in Gameweek 13 (5.8 at Nacional).
2. Gianluca Prestianni (8.7m, Benfica): 5.4 xP from the same fixture and the same [H]Famalicao → [A]Nacional → [H]Braga program. He is the alternative if you own him and not Pavlidis.
3. Ricardo Horta (9.9m, Braga): 5.0 xP on [A]Casa Pia AC → [H]Arouca → [A]Benfica. He is the differential captain for managers chasing a rank, owned by 6.9%.

Looking further ahead, Pavlidis stays the safe armband in Gameweek 13, with Suárez (5.5 against Maritimo) as the alternative. Captaincy across the next three Gameweeks points to Benfica, which is one more reason to own Pavlidis rather than spread money elsewhere.

Who to sell before Gameweek 12

Goncalo Paciencia (5.9m, Santa Clara) is the clearest sell. He is owned by 35.8% but expected to play only 26 minutes, and he projects 1.3 → 1.6 → 2.0 on [A]Moreirense → [H]FC Porto → [A]Estoril. Moreirense away is a reasonable fixture for Santa Clara, but it does not matter if he is not on the pitch. Why now: his best projection anywhere in the next six Gameweeks is 2.2, so no later fixture is worth waiting for. That money is better spent on Barbero or Butzke.

Yanis Begraoui (7.2m, Estoril) is in the same spot, owned by 19.9% with 15 expected minutes and 0.7 → 1.9 → 2.0 on [A]Gil Vicente → [H]Vitoria de Guimaraes → [H]Santa Clara. Why now: 7.2m sitting on the bench is the money that pays for a Benfica defender before Famalicao's visit. Flavio Goncalves (6.6m, Sporting CP), owned by 17.4%, has a similar problem at 36 expected minutes and no more than 2.3 xP in any of the next six Gameweeks.

Leandro Antonetti (4.6m, Estrela da Amadora) is the softer case. He is owned by 21.1% and plays 78 minutes, but Estrela's [A]Vitoria de Guimaraes → [H]Gil Vicente → [A]FC Porto is the worst run in the league, and he projects 2.6 → 2.8 → 2.2. He is cheap enough that you can wait a Gameweek, but if a transfer is spare, the Porto trip in Gameweek 14 is the point where he becomes dead weight.

For more on how our model builds these projections, see the Fantasy guides, and find every round in the Fantasy Portugal preview hub.

FAQ

Who should I captain in Fantasy Portugal Gameweek 12?

Vangelis Pavlidis is the captain for Gameweek 12, with 5.5 xP at home to Famalicao and Benfica's penalties. Gianluca Prestianni (5.4) is the alternative, and Ricardo Horta (5.0 at Casa Pia AC) is the differential choice.

Which defenders are best for Fantasy Portugal Gameweek 12?

Benfica's Samuel Dahl and Alexander Bah are the best, at 5.0 xP each and over 14 xP across Gameweeks 12 to 14. Jan Bednarek is the Porto defender to own for the run, and Tiago Esgaio (5.0m) is the best value this Gameweek.

Should I sell Luis Suárez before Gameweek 12?

No. Suárez projects only 2.2 at FC Porto, but he jumps to 5.5 against Maritimo in Gameweek 13 and 6.2 against Estoril in Gameweek 15. Hold him through the Porto game.

Who should I sell in Fantasy Portugal Gameweek 12?

Goncalo Paciencia is the top sell: he is owned by 35.8% but projects 26 minutes and no more than 2.2 xP in any of the next six Gameweeks. Yanis Begraoui (15 expected minutes) is the next one out.

What are the best Fantasy Portugal differentials for Gameweek 12?

Alexander Bah (6.0% owned) gives you Benfica's clean sheets at Dahl's level, Pepe (3.0%) has a rising 3.6 → 3.9 → 4.9 run with FC Porto, and Lucas Furtado (0.2%) is a 4.0m goalkeeper with 4.3 xP this Gameweek.

This preview was written by TheFantasyTool AI.