Eliteserien Fantasy Gameweek 23: captains and best buys

Eliteserien Fantasy Gameweek 23 tips: best buys, differentials and who to sell

Eliteserien Fantasy Gameweek 23 opens on Friday night with Brann - Viking, and it is a round that rewards planning more than reacting. Bodø/Glimt host Kristiansund BK in by far the best fixture of the weekend, but the more useful fact is what sits behind it: Bodø/Glimt's program of [H]KBK → [A]H-K → [H]VIK is the strongest three-round run in the game, and the next free transfer you make should be bought with GW24 and GW25 in mind as well as this weekend. Below we go through which programs are worth owning, the best buys in each position, the captaincy order for the next three rounds and the popular players whose minutes have dried up.

All numbers come from our model's current projections. The full list is on the Eliteserien Fantasy player picks page, and the projected XIs behind the minutes are on predicted lineups. If you missed last week, the Eliteserien Fantasy Gameweek 22 preview is still up.

The programs: whose next three gameweeks are worth owning

Every club plays once in each of the next three gameweeks, so there are no blanks or doubles to plan around and the three-round totals below compare like with like. The table is sorted on 3-round expected goals, and the Program column is the order the games are played in.

Team	Fixture	Win probability	Expected goals	Clean sheet	Program (GW23-25)	3-round xG	3-round CS
Bodø/Glimt	[H]KBK	90%	3.90	47%	[H]KBK → [A]H-K → [H]VIK	8.89	0.96
Viking	[A]BRA	49%	2.04	22%	[A]BRA → [H]FRE → [A]BOD	6.55	0.68
Molde	[A]LIL	45%	1.96	20%	[A]LIL → [H]STA → [A]BRA	5.88	0.73
Rosenborg	[H]SAN	70%	2.52	37%	[H]SAN → [A]S08 → [A]FRE	5.68	0.78
Sarpsborg 08	[A]AAL	39%	1.75	18%	[A]AAL → [H]RBK → [H]KBK	5.63	0.69
Brann	[H]VIK	28%	1.52	13%	[H]VIK → [A]VIF → [H]MOL	5.58	0.57
Sandefjord	[A]RBK	12%	1.00	8%	[A]RBK → [H]LIL → [A]AAL	4.88	0.55
Tromsø	[A]FRE	38%	1.39	27%	[A]FRE → [H]KFU → [A]VIF	4.72	0.89
Aalesund	[H]S08	37%	1.69	17%	[H]S08 → [A]KBK → [H]SAN	4.59	0.45
Lillestrøm	[H]MOL	32%	1.63	14%	[H]MOL → [A]SAN → [A]STA	4.56	0.63
Vålerenga	[A]KFU	41%	1.68	22%	[A]KFU → [H]BRA → [H]TRO	4.39	0.53
KFUM	[H]VIF	34%	1.51	19%	[H]VIF → [A]TRO → [H]H-K	4.26	0.71
Start	[H]H-K	48%	1.80	27%	[H]H-K → [A]MOL → [H]LIL	3.85	0.61
Kristiansund BK	[A]BOD	3%	0.76	2%	[A]BOD → [H]AAL → [A]S08	3.84	0.36
Fredrikstad	[H]TRO	34%	1.31	25%	[H]TRO → [A]VIK → [H]RBK	3.80	0.51
Hamarkameratene	[A]STA	27%	1.29	17%	[A]STA → [H]BOD → [A]KFU	3.64	0.42

Bodø/Glimt are in a class of their own: 8.89 expected goals and 0.96 expected clean sheets over [H]KBK → [A]H-K → [H]VIK. This season they have created 2.35 xG per game and allowed only 0.93, the best numbers at both ends of the pitch, with 10 clean sheets from 21 league games. The visit of Viking in GW25 is the hardest of the three, but two very good fixtures in front of it make Bodø/Glimt the core of any transfer plan right now. The catch is the three-player limit, so the question in this round is which three Bodø/Glimt players to own, not whether to own them.

Rosenborg are the other program to target: [H]SAN → [A]S08 → [A]FRE is worth 5.68 expected goals and 0.78 expected clean sheets, and the Sandefjord home game gives them a 37% clean sheet chance this round, second only to Bodø/Glimt. Tromsø are the defensive sleeper. Their [A]FRE → [H]KFU → [A]VIF does not look like much for attackers, but 0.89 expected clean sheets is the second-highest total in the game, and it is front-loaded: GW26 and GW27 bring Bodø/Glimt and Viking, so Tromsø defenders are a three-round hold with a clear sell date.

Viking (6.55 xG over [A]BRA → [H]FRE → [A]BOD) and Molde (5.88 over [A]LIL → [H]STA → [A]BRA) have strong attacking runs without the clean sheet numbers to match, which points at their midfielders and forwards rather than their defences. At the other end, Hamarkameratene (3.64 xG over [A]STA → [H]BOD → [A]KFU) and Kristiansund BK (3.84 over [A]BOD → [H]AAL → [A]S08, starting at Bodø/Glimt) are the attacks to stay away from. Kristiansund's GW25 trip to Sarpsborg also makes Sarpsborg 08 a team to come back to. The fixture dates are on the Eliteserien Fantasy schedule.

Goalkeepers

Leopold Wahlstedt (5.1m, RBK) is the goalkeeper with the best long-term numbers in the game. His program is [H]SAN → [A]S08 → [A]FRE with 3.8 → 3.1 → 3.3 projected, and it improves after that: Rosenborg's GW26 and GW27 projections are 4.1 each, which gives him the highest six-round weighted score of any keeper (12.9). At 5.1m and 4.4% owned he is the buy if you are changing goalkeepers this week.

Nikita Haikin (5.6m, BOD) projects most this round (4.1) with Bodø/Glimt's 47% clean sheet chance against Kristiansund, and his run of [H]KBK → [A]H-K → [H]VIK projects 4.1 → 3.5 → 3.1. He is the pick if you want the safest single week, but he is not a better six-round hold than Wahlstedt, and his slot uses up one of your three Bodø/Glimt places.

For a cheaper keeper, Leander Øy (4.5m, S08) is the hold-and-forget option. [A]AAL → [H]RBK → [H]KBK projects 3.4 → 3.4 → 4.0, and he stays between 3.4 and 3.9 in the three rounds after that, so you will not have to change him again. If you already own Jakob Haugaard (32.1% owned), keep him: [A]FRE → [H]KFU → [A]VIF is worth 11.3 points, the most of any keeper over three rounds, and the time to move him on is GW26, when Bodø/Glimt and Viking arrive.

One to avoid: Magnus Smelhus Sjøeng projects well this round, but his projection collapses to 3.7 → 2.4 → 0.6 → 0.5 → 0.6 → 0.6 over six rounds as his projected minutes fall away from GW25.

Defenders

Fredrik Sjøvold (7.7m, BOD) is the top defender this round and over three rounds. His 5.7 → 4.2 → 3.3 on [H]KBK → [A]H-K → [H]VIK adds up to 13.2, the most of any defender, and the attacking floor is real: 8.34 xA this season, more than any other defender we follow. At 37.0% owned he is close to essential.

Adrian Pereira (5.9m, RBK) is the best value premium in the Rosenborg back line. [H]SAN → [A]S08 → [A]FRE projects 4.9 → 3.3 → 3.3, and Rosenborg's GW26 home game against Start brings him back up to 4.1. He is projected for 75 minutes this round, so check the predicted lineups before the deadline. If you prefer a second Bodø/Glimt defender, Odin Lurås Bjørtuft (6.8m, BOD) projects 4.9 → 3.8 → 3.0 over the same program as Sjøvold.

The budget pick is in Tromsø. Sander Håvik Innvær (4.7m, TRO) costs 4.7m, is owned by 0.4%, and projects 4.0 → 4.5 → 4.1 over [A]FRE → [H]KFU → [A]VIF. That is 12.6 points over three rounds, the third-highest of any defender and more than every Rosenborg and Viking defender. He is projected for 72 minutes, so he carries some rotation risk, but at this price the expected points are hard to match. Leon Hien (5.0m, TRO) at 5.0m, owned by almost nobody, is the alternative from the same defence: 3.4 → 4.2 → 3.4 and a projected 83 minutes. Treat both as three-round holds and plan to sell before Tromsø face Bodø/Glimt in GW26.

The ranking for this round and the three-round ranking disagree here. Deni Dashaev (4.4m, Start) and Kolbeinn Finnsson (5.1m, Vålerenga) both project 4.4 this round, more than Innvær's 4.0, but Dashaev drops to 1.8 at Molde in GW24 and Finnsson to 2.7 at home to Brann. If you are buying one defender and keeping him, buy Innvær. Those two are only worth it as one-week punts.

Alexander Warneryd (31.4% owned) is a hold through GW25: 3.9 → 4.9 → 4.2 on [A]FRE → [H]KFU → [A]VIF, and he peaks next week at home to KFUM.

Midfielders

Ole Blomberg (9.8m, BOD) is the best player in Eliteserien Fantasy right now on every measure we have. He projects 9.6 this round, the highest projection in the game by more than two points, and his program of [H]KBK → [A]H-K → [H]VIK projects 9.6 → 6.6 → 5.9 for a three-round total of 22.1 and a weighted six-round score of 25.5, both the highest of any player. This season's 0.78 xGI per 90 rests on 9.53 xA, so he does not need to score to return. Only 12.1% of managers own him. If you make one transfer this week, make it this one.

Sondre Auklend (6.6m, BOD) is the hidden gem. At 6.6m and 1.1% owned he projects 6.1 → 4.9 → 4.4 on the same Bodø/Glimt program, 15.4 over three rounds, which puts him ahead of Breivik and Konradsen Ceide for less money. His 0.59 xGI per 90 this season shows the output is not a one-off. He is the cheapest way to get a second or third Bodø/Glimt attacker. Jens Petter Hauge (10.4m, BOD) (10.4m, 7.2 → 5.5 → 5.1) is the premium alternative if you can afford it, but you cannot fit Blomberg, Hauge, Auklend and Sjøvold under the three-per-club limit, so decide which three you want.

Amin Chiakha (8.2m, RBK) is the best non-Bodø/Glimt midfielder this round (6.7) and takes Rosenborg's penalties. He has 13 league goals from 10.39 xG, so his scoring is not luck. His program of [H]SAN → [A]S08 → [A]FRE projects 6.7 → 4.6 → 4.3, and he stays around 4.6 for the three rounds after that, so he is a steady hold. Emil Konradsen Ceide (8.1m, RBK) (8.1m, 5.9 → 4.4 → 4.5) is the second Rosenborg option.

Sondre Sørli (6.5m, S08) is the midfielder whose program improves. [A]AAL → [H]RBK → [H]KBK projects 4.5 → 4.4 → 5.5, so he peaks in GW25 at home to Kristiansund, and that makes him a buy now rather than later. He is owned by 4.9%.

Budget midfielders. Carl Lange (4.9m, VIF) at 4.9m projects 4.7 → 3.7 → 3.5 on [A]KFU → [H]BRA → [H]TRO, bounces back to 4.7 in GW26 and has six league goals. Ole Kristian Selnæs (5.0m, RBK) (5.0m) projects 4.1 → 3.3 → 3.3 on Rosenborg's program and has eight assists, a cheap way to own the Rosenborg run without paying for Chiakha. Olaus Jair Skarsem (5.5m, S08) (5.5m), owned by almost nobody, projects 3.6 → 3.4 → 3.8 with Sarpsborg 08 and is the deepest differential on this list.

Keep Zlatko Tripic. At 66.3% owned he is the most-owned player in the game, and this round's 5.2 puts him only seventh among midfielders. But his six-round line is 5.2 → 7.0 → 3.7 → 5.8 → 5.3 → 6.8, including 7.0 at home to Fredrikstad next week, and his weighted score of 20.1 is the second-best of any midfielder. With 19 assists from 11.59 xA he is not a player to sell for one quiet week. Do the same with Emil Breivik (45.6%): 5.2 → 5.5 → 4.3 on [A]LIL → [H]STA → [A]BRA is steady, not a reason to move.

Forwards

Peter Christiansen (10.6m, VIK) has the best three-round total of any forward (15.3): [A]BRA → [H]FRE → [A]BOD projects 5.2 → 6.3 → 3.8. He has 11 goals from 10.41 xG this season, and the Fredrikstad home game in GW24 is the best fixture any forward has over the next three rounds. Keep him, or buy him if you do not own him.

Ola Brynhildsen (9.4m, BOD) is the differential with the strongest case. Owned by just 0.8%, he is projected to lead the Bodø/Glimt attack against Kristiansund with 75 minutes, and [H]KBK → [A]H-K → [H]VIK projects 5.7 → 4.8 → 4.4. That is 14.9 over three rounds, only 0.4 behind Christiansen, for 1.2m less. His 0.72 xGI per 90 shows he produces when he plays.

Bård Finne (6.3m, BRA) is the mid-price forward whose program gets better. [H]VIK → [A]VIF → [H]MOL projects 3.6 → 5.4 → 4.5, peaking at 5.4 at Vålerenga in GW24, so he is a better buy before next week than after it. He has scored five goals in only 607 league minutes, and his projected 68 minutes are the main risk. Daniel Seland Karlsbakk (8.7m, S08) (8.7m) takes Sarpsborg 08's penalties and projects 4.2 → 3.8 → 5.0, peaking at home to Kristiansund in GW25.

Budget forward: Marcus Haagensen Reed (4.9m, AAL) (4.9m) projects 4.0 → 3.4 → 3.2 on [H]S08 → [A]KBK → [H]SAN, a useful three-round filler, but he drops to 2.2 from GW26, so plan to move him on after GW25.

Captaincy for Gameweek 23

Captain Ole Blomberg. His 9.6 is 2.4 points clear of anyone else in the game, at home to the side with the lowest expected goals of the round (0.76). If you own him, there is no reason to look elsewhere.

Jens Petter Hauge (7.2) is the obvious number two, and Amin Chiakha (6.7) is the best option outside Bodø/Glimt for managers who do not own any of their attackers. Sondre Auklend (6.1) is a sensible vice-captain.

Plan ahead as well. In GW24 the best captain is Zlatko Tripic at home to Fredrikstad (7.0), ahead of Blomberg (6.6) and Peter Christiansen (6.3). In GW25 it is Blomberg again (5.9) ahead of Sondre Sørli (5.5). Owning Blomberg and one of the Viking premiums covers all three weeks.

Who to sell

Andreas Helmersen (8.7m, 24.4% owned). He has 11 goals this season, but the predicted lineups have Brynhildsen leading the Bodø/Glimt attack, and Helmersen is projected for only 20 minutes against Kristiansund. That leaves him at 2.2 → 1.9 → 2.3 over three rounds. Why now: Bodø/Glimt's best fixture of the run is this one, so swapping him for Brynhildsen keeps your Bodø/Glimt slot and moves it onto the player projected to start.

Leo Cornic (6.3m, 25.7%). He is listed as unavailable with a return date of 18 October, so he projects 0.0 this round and only 0.0 → 1.3 → 1.8 → 1.8 → 1.7 → 2.3 over the next six. Why now: Brann's [H]VIK → [A]VIF → [H]MOL is worth only 0.57 expected clean sheets even with him fit, so the money is doing nothing for the next two weeks. Joachim Soltvedt (24.6% owned) is projected for 20 minutes this round and 1.0 → 2.2 → 3.1 over three rounds. You can wait a week on him if you have more urgent moves, but he is not one to buy.

Thomas Lehne Olsen (7.9m, 22.2%). He is projected for 35 minutes against Molde, and his three rounds project 1.7 → 2.0 → 2.4. Lillestrøm's [H]MOL → [A]SAN → [A]STA is a decent program, so the problem is his role, not his fixtures, and nothing in the projections suggests it changes soon. Why now: the same money buys Bård Finne, whose program peaks next week.

Henrik Udahl (5.3m, 18.8%). He is projected for 24 minutes, and Hamarkameratene have the weakest attacking program in the game: [A]STA → [H]BOD → [A]KFU, 3.64 expected goals. Why now: Bodø/Glimt visit in GW24, so waiting another week only adds a second near-blank.

Rich Uncle team for Gameweek 23

If you are playing the Rich Uncle chip, prices stop mattering and only this round's projections count, while the three-per-club limit still applies. A 3-5-2 built from the top of the GW23 projections looks like this:

GK: Martin Børsheim (3.7). Haikin and Wahlstedt project more but would take a fourth Bodø/Glimt or Rosenborg slot.
DEF: Adrian Pereira (4.9), Kolbeinn Finnsson (4.4), Deni Dashaev (4.4)
MID: Ole Blomberg (9.6, captain), Jens Petter Hauge (7.2), Amin Chiakha (6.7), Sondre Auklend (6.1), Emil Konradsen Ceide (5.9)
FWD: Peter Christiansen (5.2), Erik Botheim (4.5)

That is a greedy build. The exact optimum, including the bench, is solved live on the Eliteserien Fantasy optimal teams page, and it is the page to check before activating the chip.

Transfer summary

Buy: Blomberg, then Auklend or Brynhildsen to fill the other Bodø/Glimt places. Innvær for a budget defender, Sørli or Bård Finne for a program that gets better.
Hold: Tripic, Christiansen, Sjøvold, Warneryd and Haugaard through GW25.
Sell: Helmersen, Cornic, Lehne Olsen and Udahl, in that order.

Before the deadline, check the bookmaker-implied numbers on market probabilities. Every Eliteserien Fantasy article is collected in our ESF preview hub, and the general strategy articles are in our guides.

FAQ

Who should I captain in Eliteserien Fantasy Gameweek 23?

Ole Blomberg. He projects 9.6 at home to Kristiansund, the highest projection in the game by 2.4 points. Jens Petter Hauge (7.2) and Amin Chiakha (6.7) are the alternatives.

Which budget defenders are best for Eliteserien Fantasy Gameweek 23?

Sander Håvik Innvær at 4.7m. He projects 4.0 → 4.5 → 4.1 over [A]FRE → [H]KFU → [A]VIF, the third-highest three-round total of any defender. His Tromsø teammate Leon Hien (5.0m) is the alternative.

Should I sell Andreas Helmersen before Gameweek 23?

Yes. He is projected for only 20 minutes against Kristiansund because the predicted lineups have Ola Brynhildsen starting. Swap him for Brynhildsen to keep your Bodø/Glimt place on the player who is projected to start.

Who are the best differentials for Eliteserien Fantasy Gameweek 23?

Ola Brynhildsen (0.8% owned, 14.9 over three rounds) and Sondre Auklend (1.1% owned, 6.1 → 4.9 → 4.4). Both get Bodø/Glimt's [H]KBK → [A]H-K → [H]VIK, the best program in the game.

Should I keep Zlatko Tripic for Gameweek 23?

Yes. He projects 5.2 this round but 7.0 at home to Fredrikstad in GW24, and his weighted six-round score of 20.1 is the second-best of any midfielder.

This preview was written by TheFantasyTool AI.