Eliteserien Fantasy Gameweek 23: best buys and captains
Eliteserien Fantasy Gameweek 23 preview: best buys, captain picks and differentials
Eliteserien Fantasy Gameweek 23 is a full round — all sixteen clubs play, so nobody is forced into a transfer by a blank. That makes this a planning round rather than a firefighting one, and the right question is not who scores most on 9–12 October but whose next three Gameweeks are worth owning. With nine rounds left and one free transfer a week, a move made now has to earn its place through Gameweek 25, not just Gameweek 23.
The short version: Bodø/Glimt have the best three-round run in the game by a distance, Tromsø and KFUM are the cheap defensive route into it, and the most expensive mistake available this week is holding a highly owned player who is no longer in his manager's first eleven. Full numbers are on the Eliteserien Fantasy player picks page, and the live squad build is on optimal teams for Eliteserien Fantasy.
The programs: whose next three Gameweeks are worth owning
Bodø/Glimt carry [H]KBK -> [A]H-K -> [H]VIK — 8.71 expected goals and 0.91 expected clean sheets across the three, the best figure in the league on both counts. The Gameweek 23 fixture alone is the standout of the round: a 87% win probability at home to Kristiansund BK, with 3.75 expected goals and a 42% clean-sheet chance. But the case for buying here is the chain, not the one game — the trip to Hamarkameratene and the home game with Viking behind it are both above-average, which is what turns a one-week punt into a hold you can forget about.
Tromsø are the quieter version of the same idea. Their [A]FRE -> [H]KFU -> [A]VIF produces 0.90 expected clean sheets — second only to Bodø/Glimt — off a much lower price base, and their Gameweek 23 trip to Fredrikstad already carries a 28% clean-sheet chance, the second-best defensive number of the round. KFUM sit third on the same measure at 0.86 from [H]VIF -> [A]TRO -> [H]H-K, and they have the single best win probability outside Bodø/Glimt this week at 53%.
At the other end, three programs should keep you away regardless of what the Gameweek 23 fixture looks like. Start have the lowest three-round expected goals in the league at 3.38 ([H]H-K -> [A]MOL -> [H]LIL); Kristiansund BK have the lowest expected clean sheets at 0.36 and the worst single fixture of the week, a 4% win probability away at Bodø/Glimt; and Hamarkameratene pair 3.68 expected goals with a visit from Bodø/Glimt in Gameweek 24. Aalesund (0.44 expected clean sheets) and Vålerenga (3.77 expected goals) are the other two to leave alone.
The full table below is sorted on the three-round columns, not on this week's, because that is the order a transfer should be made in. Kick-off times and the rest of the run-in are on the Eliteserien Fantasy schedule, and the underlying match odds behind these numbers are on market probabilities.
| Team | Gameweek 23 | Win prob | xG | Clean sheet | Program (next 3) | 3-round xG | 3-round CS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bodø/Glimt | [H]KBK | 87% | 3.75 | 41.7% | [H]KBK -> [A]H-K -> [H]VIK | 8.71 | 0.91 |
| Viking | [A]BRA | 41% | 1.89 | 17.2% | [A]BRA -> [H]FRE -> [A]BOD | 6.36 | 0.64 |
| Brann | [H]VIK | 36% | 1.76 | 15.1% | [H]VIK -> [A]VIF -> [H]MOL | 5.85 | 0.60 |
| Sarpsborg 08 | [A]AAL | 45% | 1.85 | 22.3% | [A]AAL -> [H]RBK -> [H]KBK | 5.74 | 0.73 |
| Molde | [A]LIL | 39% | 1.68 | 19.5% | [A]LIL -> [H]STA -> [A]BRA | 5.59 | 0.73 |
| Sandefjord | [A]RBK | 32% | 1.53 | 16.1% | [A]RBK -> [H]LIL -> [A]AAL | 5.41 | 0.63 |
| Rosenborg | [H]SAN | 44% | 1.83 | 21.7% | [H]SAN -> [A]S08 -> [A]FRE | 4.99 | 0.63 |
| Tromsø | [A]FRE | 45% | 1.65 | 28.0% | [A]FRE -> [H]KFU -> [A]VIF | 4.97 | 0.90 |
| Lillestrøm | [H]MOL | 37% | 1.64 | 18.6% | [H]MOL -> [A]SAN -> [A]STA | 4.57 | 0.67 |
| KFUM | [H]VIF | 53% | 1.79 | 33.6% | [H]VIF -> [A]TRO -> [H]H-K | 4.54 | 0.86 |
| Aalesund | [H]S08 | 31% | 1.50 | 15.6% | [H]S08 -> [A]KBK -> [H]SAN | 4.38 | 0.44 |
| Kristiansund BK | [A]BOD | 4% | 0.87 | 2.4% | [A]BOD -> [H]AAL -> [A]S08 | 3.95 | 0.36 |
| Vålerenga | [A]KFU | 22% | 1.09 | 16.6% | [A]KFU -> [H]BRA -> [H]TRO | 3.77 | 0.47 |
| Fredrikstad | [H]TRO | 29% | 1.27 | 19.3% | [H]TRO -> [A]VIK -> [H]RBK | 3.74 | 0.45 |
| Hamarkameratene | [A]STA | 36% | 1.33 | 26.3% | [A]STA -> [H]BOD -> [A]KFU | 3.68 | 0.52 |
| Start | [H]H-K | 36% | 1.34 | 26.4% | [H]H-K -> [A]MOL -> [H]LIL | 3.38 | 0.60 |
Goalkeepers for Gameweek 23
Emil Ødegaard (4.6m, KFU) is the pick of the position and the ranking is not close over three: 4.1 expected points this week and 11.6 over the program [H]VIF -> [A]TRO -> [H]H-K, the highest three-round total of any keeper in the game. He is owned by 1.9% of managers at 4.6m, which makes him the cheapest way to buy into the third-best defensive run in the league. The home game with Vålerenga is the pick of his three at a 34% clean-sheet chance.
Jakob Haugaard (5.1m, TRO) is the template alternative on 32.1% ownership, and there is no reason to move him on: [A]FRE -> [H]KFU -> [A]VIF returns 11.5 expected points over three, and his trajectory of 3.7 → 4.1 → 3.7 is flat and high — which is exactly what you want from a keeper you never intend to think about again. If you want the Bodø/Glimt clean sheets without spending on an outfield slot, Julian Faye Lund (4.2m, BOD) is 4.2m on 0.4% ownership with 9.3 over [H]KBK -> [A]H-K -> [H]VIK — and he is the Bodø/Glimt keeper the model expects to start, which matters more than usual this week (see the sell section).
Defenders for Gameweek 23
Fredrik Sjøvold (7.7m, BOD) is the premium, at 5.5 this week and 13.6 across [H]KBK -> [A]H-K -> [H]VIK, with 0.23 expected assists in Gameweek 23 alone — he is an attacking full-back inside the best defence in the division, which is why 37.0% of managers already own him. Fredrik André Bjørkan (6.7m, BOD) is the same program 1.0m cheaper on 18.3% ownership and 13.1 over three; if you are choosing one, the price gap buys you a midfield upgrade elsewhere.
The ranking flips over the horizon and it is worth saying out loud: Alexander Warneryd (6.5m, TRO) scores less than both Bodø/Glimt defenders in Gameweek 23 (4.7) but more than either over the next three (14.0 from [A]FRE -> [H]KFU -> [A]VIF), because Tromsø have no weak week in the window and Bodø/Glimt's run tails slightly. If you are buying one defender and keeping him, buy Warneryd; if you are buying one for the round, buy the Bodø/Glimt one.
The budget answer is Jonas Lange Hjorth (4.8m, KFU), and he is the best value pick in the whole game this week: 4.5 expected points at 4.8m is 0.94 points per million, the highest of any starting player, and [H]VIF -> [A]TRO -> [H]H-K keeps him useful through Gameweek 25 (11.4 over three). He is owned by 1.0% of managers. Håkon Hoseth (4.7m, KFU) is the same club and the same run at 4.7m on 9.3%, and Anders Hiim (4.6m, S08) at 4.6m gives you [A]AAL -> [H]RBK -> [H]KBK — 0.73 expected clean sheets — for almost nothing.
| Player | Team | Price | Gameweek 23 xP | 3-round xP | Ownership | Program |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fredrik Sjøvold | BOD | 7.7m | 5.5 | 13.6 | 37.0% | [H]KBK -> [A]H-K -> [H]VIK |
| Fredrik André Bjørkan | BOD | 6.7m | 5.2 | 13.1 | 18.3% | [H]KBK -> [A]H-K -> [H]VIK |
| Alexander Warneryd | TRO | 6.5m | 4.7 | 14.0 | 31.5% | [A]FRE -> [H]KFU -> [A]VIF |
| Jonas Lange Hjorth | KFU | 4.8m | 4.5 | 11.4 | 1.0% | [H]VIF -> [A]TRO -> [H]H-K |
| Håkon Hoseth | KFU | 4.7m | 4.2 | 10.7 | 9.3% | [H]VIF -> [A]TRO -> [H]H-K |
| Anders Hiim | S08 | 4.6m | 3.4 | 10.1 | 3.0% | [A]AAL -> [H]RBK -> [H]KBK |
| Isak Vådebu | TRO | 5.1m | 3.3 | 10.3 | 1.8% | [A]FRE -> [H]KFU -> [A]VIF |
Midfielders for Gameweek 23
Ole Blomberg (9.8m, BOD) is the outright best player in Eliteserien Fantasy Gameweek 23 and it is not a marginal call: 8.2 expected points is more than a point and a half clear of anyone else, and his 21.1 over [H]KBK -> [A]H-K -> [H]VIK is the highest three-round total in the game. The model has him on 0.68 expected goals and 0.41 expected assists this week with a 0.40 clean-sheet share on top, and his trajectory of 8.2 → 6.8 → 6.1 never drops below six. Whatever else you do this week, he should be in the team.
Jens Petter Hauge (10.4m, BOD) is the other premium at 10.4m, 6.4 this week and 16.7 over the same Bodø/Glimt program, and only 14.5% of managers own him. Note the squad rule before you plan a block: you may only field three players from any one club, and Bodø/Glimt have six names inside the top eleven for this round — so the real decision is which three, not whether to stack.
Heine Åsen Larsen (6.4m, TRO) is the value premium. 6.4m for 5.2 this week is 0.81 points per million, the best of any midfielder above four expected points, he takes Tromsø's penalties, and [A]FRE -> [H]KFU -> [A]VIF gives him 15.3 over three with a completely flat 5.2 → 4.9 → 5.2 line. Felix Va (6.3m, LIL) is the equivalent at Lillestrøm: 6.3m, 0.59 of the penalties, 14.0 over [H]MOL -> [A]SAN -> [A]STA and a run that improves again in Gameweek 26.
Two differentials worth the risk. Sondre Auklend (6.6m, BOD) is owned by 1.1% of managers and projects 5.7 this week, fourth-highest of any player in the game, with 14.8 over [H]KBK -> [A]H-K -> [H]VIK — the cheapest route into that attack at 6.6m. And Niklas Castro (7.7m, BRA) is on 2.7% with 14.7 over [H]VIK -> [A]VIF -> [H]MOL: his Gameweek 23 number of 4.2 understates him badly, because he takes Brann's penalties and his trajectory climbs to 5.6 in Gameweek 24. That is a buy-before-the-run pick rather than a buy-for-the-round one — the reason to do it now is that waiting means paying for it after the good week has started.
| Player | Team | Price | Gameweek 23 xP | 3-round xP | Ownership | Program |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ole Blomberg | BOD | 9.8m | 8.2 | 21.1 | 11.9% | [H]KBK -> [A]H-K -> [H]VIK |
| Jens Petter Hauge | BOD | 10.4m | 6.4 | 16.7 | 14.5% | [H]KBK -> [A]H-K -> [H]VIK |
| Heine Åsen Larsen | TRO | 6.4m | 5.2 | 15.3 | 23.5% | [A]FRE -> [H]KFU -> [A]VIF |
| Sondre Auklend | BOD | 6.6m | 5.7 | 14.8 | 1.1% | [H]KBK -> [A]H-K -> [H]VIK |
| Felix Va | LIL | 6.3m | 5.0 | 14.0 | 13.8% | [H]MOL -> [A]SAN -> [A]STA |
| Niklas Castro | BRA | 7.7m | 4.2 | 14.7 | 2.7% | [H]VIK -> [A]VIF -> [H]MOL |
| Simen Bolkan Nordli | RBK | 6.9m | 4.5 | 12.2 | 0.4% | [H]SAN -> [A]S08 -> [A]FRE |
| Bilal Njie | KFU | 5.4m | 4.2 | 11.0 | 0.3% | [H]VIF -> [A]TRO -> [H]H-K |
Forwards for Gameweek 23
Andreas Helmersen (8.6m, BOD) is the forward pick: 0.80 expected goals this week is the highest single-round figure in the game, he has 0.86 of Bodø/Glimt's penalties, and [H]KBK -> [A]H-K -> [H]VIK carries him to 15.5 over three. At 23.4% ownership he is not a differential, but he is the one forward whose program justifies the price without argument.
Daniel Seland Karlsbakk (8.7m, S08) is the alternative and his case is entirely a program case: 5.0 this week from [A]AAL -> [H]RBK -> [H]KBK does not look special, but 14.4 over three does, he takes 0.92 of the penalties, and his trajectory rises to 5.2 by Gameweek 25 as Sarpsborg 08's fixtures come home. Peter Christiansen (10.6m, VIK) is the most-owned premium forward at 35.9% and his 15.7 over [A]BRA -> [H]FRE -> [A]BOD is second only to Helmersen — a hold rather than a buy at 10.6m, since 0.48 points per million is the worst value of any forward in the top five.
For a cheap third forward, Oscar Forsmo Kapskarmo (5.5m, SAN) is on 1.3% ownership at 5.5m with 11.1 over [A]RBK -> [H]LIL -> [A]AAL and a rising line of 3.2 → 3.8 → 4.1, and Håkon Lorentzen (5.3m, STA) at 5.3m takes 0.75 of Start's penalties — though with [H]H-K -> [A]MOL -> [H]LIL behind the opening fixture, he is a one-week pick and should be sold again after Gameweek 23.
Captain picks for Gameweek 23
The captain scores double in Eliteserien Fantasy, so this is the largest single decision of the week.
- Ole Blomberg — 8.2 expected points, which doubles to roughly 16.4. [H]KBK -> [A]H-K -> [H]VIK means he is also the captain you are most likely to keep the armband on in Gameweek 25, which is the tiebreaker when two picks look close.
- Andreas Helmersen — 6.5, and the highest expected-goals figure in the round at 0.80. The higher-variance option: a penalty share of 0.86 gives him a bigger ceiling than Blomberg on the day, a lower floor over the month.
- Jens Petter Hauge — 6.4, same fixture, and the pick if you already own him and would rather not spend a transfer chasing the other two.
Looking one step further: the best captain option in Gameweek 24 is Zlatko Tripic (7.4 at home to Fredrikstad), and in Gameweek 25 it is Blomberg again (6.1). That is a real argument for owning Ole Blomberg over a cheaper alternative — he captains twice in three weeks. Expected line-ups are published on predicted lineups for Eliteserien Fantasy, and it is worth a check before the deadline.
Who to sell before Gameweek 23
Nikita Haikin (5.6m, BOD) is the clearest sale in the game and the round to do it is this one. He is owned by 22.4% of managers, the model has him on 2 expected minutes in Gameweek 23 and 1.2 expected points across the whole of [H]KBK -> [A]H-K -> [H]VIK — because Julian Faye Lund is in goal. This is not a fixture argument: Bodø/Glimt's next three are the best in the league, which is precisely why owning the wrong half of that goalkeeping situation costs more this month than it would in any other.
Henrik Udahl (5.4m, H-K) is the second. The Gameweek 23 trip to Start is playable — 1.33 expected goals and a penalty share of 0.72 means 3.2 is a perfectly respectable week, and this is not a bad fixture. But Hamarkameratene host Bodø/Glimt next and then travel to KFUM, and [A]STA -> [H]BOD -> [A]KFU adds up to only 3.68 expected goals, second-lowest in the league. So the choice is selling into a decent week now or selling out of a bad one in seven days, and the free transfer is the same either way.
Thomas Lehne Olsen (7.9m, LIL) is a minutes problem rather than a fixture problem: 37 expected minutes this week, and 6.5 over [H]MOL -> [A]SAN -> [A]STA despite that being a reasonable run. 22.2% of managers are paying a premium price for a substitute. Leo Cornic (6.3m, BRA, 25.9% owned, 39 expected minutes) is the same shape. Both should go before you spend a transfer on anything cosmetic.
One to hold, for now: Henrik Heggheim (6.3m, VIK, 31.2% owned) has [A]BRA -> [H]FRE -> [A]BOD and his best week of the three is Gameweek 24 at home to Fredrikstad (3.2), with the trip to Bodø/Glimt collapsing him to 1.6 in Gameweek 25. You can wait a round on this one — sell him after the Fredrikstad game, not before it.
Every number in this preview comes from the same model run. You can compare the full pool on player picks, check the solved squad on optimal teams, and read the rest of the season's rounds in the Eliteserien Fantasy preview hub — including last week's Eliteserien Fantasy Gameweek 22 preview. More background reading sits in our fantasy football guides.
FAQ
Who should I captain in Eliteserien Fantasy Gameweek 23?
Ole Blomberg. He projects 8.2 points before the armband, more than a point and a half clear of the next player in the game, and the captain scores double in Eliteserien Fantasy. Andreas Helmersen (6.5) is the higher-ceiling alternative on penalty duty, and Jens Petter Hauge (6.4) is third.
Which budget defenders are best for Gameweek 23?
Jonas Lange Hjorth at 4.8m is the best value in the game at 0.94 points per million, with [H]VIF -> [A]TRO -> [H]H-K keeping him useful for three weeks. Håkon Hoseth (4.7m) is the same defence, and Anders Hiim (4.6m) buys into [A]AAL -> [H]RBK -> [H]KBK and 0.73 expected clean sheets.
Should I sell Henrik Udahl before Gameweek 23?
Yes, and this is the round to do it. The trip to Start is a fine fixture and 3.2 points is a decent week, but Hamarkameratene's next three total only 3.68 expected goals — second-lowest in the league — with Bodø/Glimt at home in Gameweek 24. Selling into the good week beats selling out of the bad one.
Best differentials for Eliteserien Fantasy Gameweek 23?
Sondre Auklend (6.6m, 1.1% owned) projects 5.7 this week and 14.8 over [H]KBK -> [A]H-K -> [H]VIK. Emil Ødegaard (4.6m, 1.9%) is the top-projected goalkeeper in the game over three rounds, and Niklas Castro (2.7%) climbs to 5.6 in Gameweek 24.
Which teams have the best fixtures in Eliteserien Fantasy Gameweek 23?
Bodø/Glimt by a distance — [H]KBK -> [A]H-K -> [H]VIK gives them 8.71 expected goals and 0.91 expected clean sheets over the next three, the best in the league on both. Tromsø (0.90) and KFUM (0.86) are the cheaper defensive routes. Avoid Start, Kristiansund BK and Hamarkameratene.
This preview was written by TheFantasyTool AI.