Elevens Gameweek 7: captain picks and best buys

Elevens Premier League Gameweek 7 preview: best buys, captain picks and differentials

Elevens Premier League Gameweek 7 runs from Saturday 17 October to Monday 19 October, and the transfer you make this week should be judged on Gameweeks 7, 8 and 9 together. Manchester City host Ipswich in the most lopsided fixture of the round, but the more useful story sits behind it: Bruno Fernandes and Virgil van Dijk both project more in Gameweek 8 than in Gameweek 7, Arsenal's run ends at Anfield in Gameweek 9, and Brighton fall away sharply after this weekend. Below are the best buys per position, the captain plan for the next three gameweeks, the differentials and the players to move on. Every number comes from our model's projections, which you can browse in full on the Elevens player picks page. Last week's analysis is in the Elevens Gameweek 6 preview.

Gameweek 7 programs: whose next three gameweeks are worth owning

Manchester City's [H]IPS → [A]AVL → [H]BHA is the best three-gameweek attacking run in the game at 6.79 expected goals, and the Ipswich match alone carries a 77% win probability and 2.75 expected goals. The Villa away trip is the one to plan around rather than avoid. Arsenal's [A]NFO → [H]EVE → [A]LIV has the most expected clean sheets of any team over the window (1.27), but the Liverpool trip comes last, so Arsenal assets are a two-gameweek hold rather than a three-gameweek one.

Chelsea ([A]EVE → [H]TOT → [H]MUN, 5.20 expected goals) and Brentford ([H]LIV → [A]HUL → [H]NFO, 5.05) are the next two programs, and both have their better fixtures stacked behind a middling Gameweek 7. That is the profile of a buy that pays off over time rather than this weekend. Brighton ([H]CRY → [A]LIV → [A]MCI) are the opposite: a 61% win probability and 2.12 expected goals against Palace now, then two of the hardest away trips in the league.

All 20 teams play once in each of the three gameweeks, so the totals compare like with like. At the bottom, Hull ([A]FUL → [H]BRE → [H]IPS, 3.22 expected goals), Everton ([H]CHE → [A]ARS → [A]NEW, 3.23) and Coventry ([A]TOT → [H]FUL → [H]SUN, 3.39) have the weakest attacking programs. Kick-off times and the full calendar are on the Elevens schedule, and the bookmaker view behind these numbers is on the Elevens market probabilities page.

Best goalkeepers for Gameweek 7

Caoimhin Kelleher (BRE) is the goalkeeper to own for the next three gameweeks: [H]LIV → [A]HUL → [H]NFO, with a trajectory of 44.7 → 47.4 → 45.8 and the highest three-round total of any keeper (137.9). Liverpool at home is the hardest of the three, but the trip to Hull and the Forest visit give him two good fixtures out of three.

Antonin Kinsky (TOT) projects the most of any goalkeeper this week (46.6) thanks to a 38% clean sheet chance against Coventry, but his program [H]COV → [A]CHE → [H]CRY dips to 40.8 at Chelsea. This is where this week's ranking and the three-round ranking disagree: if you are buying one keeper and keeping him, pick Kelleher; if you only want this weekend, Kinsky.

Robin Roefs (SUN) is the quiet alternative. His [A]BOU → [H]LEE → [A]COV run is not glamorous, but it rises 44.6 → 45.4 → 46.0 for a 136.0 total, second only to Kelleher. Lukas Hornicek (NEW) is right behind on [H]AVL → [A]CRY → [H]EVE at 45.5 → 44.5 → 45.3 (135.3). David Raya (ARS) has a 42% clean sheet chance at Forest, but he projects 43.7 this week and 129.8 over the three, behind all four keepers above.

Best defenders for Gameweek 7

Luka Vuskovic (BHA) now leads all defenders both this week (84.2) and over the three gameweeks (214.3), on [H]CRY → [A]LIV → [A]MCI. The Palace fixture carries a 34% clean sheet projection plus 0.13 expected goals, and even after the trajectory falls to 66.4 → 63.7 on the two away trips he stays ahead of the field. He is the rare Brighton asset worth holding through the hard run.

Josko Gvardiol (MCI) is the steadiest premium defender, with a 41% clean sheet chance against Ipswich on [H]IPS → [A]AVL → [H]BHA. His trajectory of 76.8 → 66.5 → 68.0 gives 211.3 over three gameweeks, and he adds 0.12 expected goals plus 0.11 expected assists this week. Jan Paul van Hecke (TOT) is the strong-now alternative on [H]COV → [A]CHE → [H]CRY at 77.0 → 60.9 → 66.9 (204.8): the Chelsea week is the dip, Palace at home brings him back.

Virgil van Dijk (LIV) is the buy whose best week is ahead of him: [A]BRE → [H]BHA → [H]ARS gives 58.8 → 72.2 → 64.3, 195.3 in total. He only projects 65 minutes this week, so you can wait a gameweek on this one and bring him in for the Brighton game. Jannik Schuster (BRE) has the same shape on [H]LIV → [A]HUL → [H]NFO (63.6 → 68.0 → 60.5) but a lower total.

David Affengruber (FUL) is best now on [H]HUL → [A]COV → [A]AVL: a 33% clean sheet projection this week and a 73.1 → 66.1 → 60.0 trajectory, so he fades by Gameweek 9. For a flat, set-and-forget defender, Lewis Hall (NEW) sits at 71.2 → 63.2 → 64.4 on [H]AVL → [A]CRY → [H]EVE, with 0.12 expected assists this week.

Best midfielders for Gameweek 7

Bruno Fernandes (MUN) has the highest three-round total in midfield (255.6) and is the clearest case of buying before the good week arrives. His program is [A]LEE → [H]BOU → [A]CHE and his trajectory is 78.7 → 94.4 → 82.5: Leeds away is already a solid fixture, and Bournemouth at home in Gameweek 8 is the single biggest projection anyone in the game has that week.

Cole Palmer (CHE) is the most reliable premium on [A]EVE → [H]TOT → [H]MUN: 81.1 → 82.6 → 78.3, 242.0 in total, with 0.36 expected goals and 0.23 expected assists this week. He is the top-projected midfielder of Gameweek 7 and barely moves across the window, which is what a hold looks like. His teammate Morgan Rogers (CHE) is almost as flat on the same program (69.6 → 64.1 → 67.7) with 0.32 expected goals this week and 83 projected minutes.

Rayan Cherki (MCI) projects 78.1 against Ipswich with 0.28 expected assists, then settles at 62.6 and 67.0 on [H]IPS → [A]AVL → [H]BHA (207.7 total). The risk is minutes: the model has him at 57, so he relies on output per minute rather than a full 90. Marcus Tavernier (BOU) is a strong one-week pick against Sunderland (74.2, 0.32 expected goals) on [H]SUN → [A]MUN → [H]LEE, but he falls to 58.0 at Old Trafford, so plan to move him on after this weekend.

Best forwards for Gameweek 7

Erling Haaland (MCI) is the strongest asset in the game: 115.5 this week against Ipswich with 0.96 expected goals, and 291.5 across [H]IPS → [A]AVL → [H]BHA, almost 60 points clear of any other forward over the window. Most managers will have him; the gameweek is decided by the picks around him.

Joao Pedro (CHE) is the second forward on both rankings: 84.1 → 70.2 → 78.4 on [A]EVE → [H]TOT → [H]MUN, 232.7 in total, with 0.48 expected goals this week and 82 projected minutes. He pairs naturally with Palmer, and the Manchester United game in Gameweek 9 is his second-best week of the three.

Thiago Rodrigues (BRE) is the forward whose best week is ahead of him: 71.2 → 83.0 → 69.5 on [H]LIV → [A]HUL → [H]NFO, with 0.47 expected goals this week. Bukayo Saka (ARS) gives you Arsenal's run from the front at 70.2 → 72.6 → 58.8 (201.6) on [A]NFO → [H]EVE → [A]LIV, a buy you should expect to review before Anfield in Gameweek 9. Charalampos Kostoulas projects 80.0 against Palace this week, more than both Thiago and Saka, but his three-round total (185.2) trails both; if you are buying a forward to keep, buy Thiago. Check the Elevens predicted lineups before the deadline for any late rotation news.

Hidden gems and differentials

Anton Stach (LEE) is the midfield differential: 72.0 → 64.2 → 58.8 on [H]MUN → [A]SUN → [A]BOU, with 81 projected minutes and 0.21 expected goals this week. Leeds are not a team most managers look at, but his 195.0 three-round total is level with Marcus Tavernier's. Enzo Le Fee (SUN) is the set-and-forget version: 63.7 → 64.1 → 66.0 on [A]BOU → [H]LEE → [A]COV, rising every week.

At the back, Nordi Mukiele (SUN) on the same Sunderland program is the flattest defender in the top ten (64.1 → 65.1 → 65.7, 194.9), and Robin Roefs (SUN) completes a Sunderland block in goal. James Tarkowski (EVE) is worth a look only for Gameweeks 7 and 9; his 57.7 at Arsenal in between makes him hard to hold.

Captain picks for Gameweek 7

Erling Haaland is the captain. His 115.5 projection against Ipswich is more than 30 points clear of the next player in the game, Luka Vuskovic (84.2), with Joao Pedro (84.1) and Cole Palmer (81.1) the best attacking alternatives if you want to split from City.

Look ahead before you decide who else to own: in Gameweek 8 Bruno Fernandes projects 94.4 against Bournemouth, the top projection in the game that week and ahead of Haaland's 84.9 at Villa, so he is a genuine captain alternative next week. In Gameweek 9 Haaland is back on top at 91.1 against Brighton. Owning both covers the armband for the whole window.

Who to sell before Gameweek 7

Omar Marmoush (TOT) is the move to make now, on [H]COV → [A]CHE → [H]CRY. Coventry at home is a very good fixture, but the model has him at only 45 minutes, so he projects just 47.7 this week and 28.0 and 35.2 after it. The minutes have changed this round, not later, and there is no week in the program that justifies keeping him.

Charalampos Kostoulas (BHA) is the planned exit on [H]CRY → [A]LIV → [A]MCI. His Palace fixture is a good one and 80.0 is a strong return, so this is not a bad week for him. But he drops to 55.5 at Liverpool and 49.7 at City, so the choice is selling him straight after a decent score or carrying him through two poor weeks. If Marmoush already takes this week's transfer, you can wait a gameweek on Kostoulas and move him before Gameweek 8.

Three more to plan for rather than act on: Pascal Gross (BHA) falls from 79.0 to 56.5 and 53.5 on the same Liverpool and City trips as Kostoulas; Kai Havertz (ARS) holds at 58.7 and 60.9 before dropping to 48.0 at Anfield in Gameweek 9; and Florian Wirtz (LIV) holds at 62.5 and 63.7 before 49.4 against Arsenal, so both can stay for two more gameweeks.

For the squad that maximises projected points over any window, use the live solver on the Elevens optimal teams page. Earlier gameweek previews are collected in the Elevens preview hub, and general strategy pieces live in our fantasy guides.

FAQ

Who should I captain in Elevens Gameweek 7?

Erling Haaland. He projects 115.5 against Ipswich at home with 0.96 expected goals, the highest projection in the game this week; Joao Pedro (84.1) and Cole Palmer (81.1) are the attacking alternatives.

Which defenders are best for Elevens Gameweek 7?

Luka Vuskovic leads both this week (84.2) and over Gameweeks 7-9 (214.3), with Josko Gvardiol (76.8, 41% clean sheet chance against Ipswich) the steadiest premium option.

Should I sell Marmoush before Gameweek 7?

Yes. Omar Marmoush is projected for only 45 minutes and 47.7 points against Coventry, then 28.0 at Chelsea and 35.2 against Palace, so there is no week in his program worth waiting for.

Best differentials for Elevens Gameweek 7?

Anton Stach (195.0 over Gameweeks 7-9), Enzo Le Fee (63.7 → 64.1 → 66.0) and Nordi Mukiele (194.9) hold their value across all three gameweeks outside the obvious teams.

Is Bruno Fernandes worth buying for Elevens Gameweek 7?

Yes. Bruno Fernandes has the highest three-gameweek midfield total (255.6), and his best week is Gameweek 8 at home to Bournemouth (94.4), so buying him now means owning him before it.

This preview was written by TheFantasyTool AI.