Elevens Gameweek 5: captain picks and best buys

Elevens Gameweek 5 preview: best buys, differentials and captain picks

Elevens Premier League Gameweek 5 is a full 10-match round — every one of the 20 clubs has a fixture, starting with Brentford against Chelsea on Friday evening and finishing with Fulham against Manchester United on Sunday. Two names sit clear of everything else on our model: Erling Haaland at home to the weakest-rated side in the round, and Bruno Fernandes, who is projected higher than any other midfielder in the game by a margin most managers will not expect.

But those two are not where the Gameweek is won. Almost everyone will own at least one of them. The gap between a good Elevens squad and a great one this week is in the back five and in the defensive-contribution midfielders — the players who bank points whether or not their team keeps a clean sheet. That is what the rest of this preview is about. All numbers below are pulled from our model on 14 September and shown as pP, the predicted points total for the Gameweek.

The Gameweek 5 fixtures that matter

Manchester City at home to Sunderland is the standout on every measure: the highest win probability in the round, the highest expected goals, and the highest clean-sheet probability. Newcastle United hosting Hull City is the second-best attacking spot. Everton and Nottingham Forest both get promoted opposition at home, which is where the cheap clean-sheet equity lives this week.

Arsenal travelling to Brighton & Hove Albion is the tightest of the big-side fixtures — Arsenal are 54.8% to win but only 36.7% to keep it clean, so their attackers are the better route in than their defenders. You can see the full round and the kick-off order on the Elevens schedule page, and the underlying match odds on the Elevens market probabilities page.

Best goalkeepers for Gameweek 5

Jordan Pickford (Everton) is the top-projected goalkeeper in the game for Gameweek 5 at 47.4 pP. Everton host Ipswich Town with a 35.2% clean-sheet probability, and Pickford adds 2.68 projected saves on top of that — the combination of a decent shutout chance and genuine save volume is what puts him ahead of keepers behind better defences.

Lukas Hornicek (Newcastle United) is a fraction behind at 46.9 pP with an even better shutout chance (39.6% personal clean-sheet probability against Hull City) and almost identical save volume at 2.70. If you want the Newcastle stack — and you should read the defender section before you decide — he is the correct keeper to build it around.

The interesting one is Gianluigi Donnarumma (Manchester City). He has the highest clean-sheet probability of any keeper in the round at 48.3%, comfortably clear of the field, but he is only projected at 40.8 pP because Sunderland are expected to make him work for barely 1.86 saves. In Elevens, save volume matters, and that is the whole reason a keeper behind a worse defence can out-score one behind the best. If you want the shutout itself rather than the points floor, Donnarumma is the pick; if you want the higher expected total, Pickford is.

Matz Sels (Nottingham Forest) at 41.7 pP is the quieter option — 35.7% clean-sheet probability at home to Coventry City with 2.53 projected saves, and a long way off most shortlists. Check who is actually starting in goal on the Elevens predicted lineups page before the deadline.

Best defenders for Gameweek 5

Lewis Hall (Newcastle United) leads every defender in the game for Gameweek 5 at 73.7 pP. He gets Hull City at home, a 33.1% personal clean-sheet probability, 5.7 projected defensive contributions and real attacking involvement from left-back — 0.066 projected goals and 0.115 projected assists. That is the complete defender profile, and it is why he outranks better-known names.

Virgil van Dijk (Liverpool) is second at 71.8 pP and is the best defender in the game over the longer horizon, scoring 248 on our decay-weighted six-round measure. His Gameweek 5 clean-sheet probability at Bournemouth is only 19.5%, so this is not a shutout buy — it is a volume buy, built on 7.6 projected defensive contributions and 86 projected minutes. His trajectory is remarkably flat: 71.8 → 66.5 → 68.9 → 71.5 across Gameweeks 5 to 8. He is the defender you buy and then stop thinking about.

James Tarkowski (Everton) at 71.5 pP is the best blend of both. Ipswich Town at home gives him a 32.3% clean-sheet probability and he is projected for 9.6 defensive contributions, the fourth-highest of any defender in the round. Pair him with Pickford and you are doubling down on the same shutout with two players who both have a floor if it does not arrive.

Josko Gvardiol (Manchester City) at 67.2 pP is the pure clean-sheet play — a 43.3% personal shutout probability is the highest of any outfield defender this week, and Sunderland are projected for just 0.71 expected goals. The caveat is 78 projected minutes; City rotate, and Gvardiol is not immune.

Below the obvious names, Neco Williams (Nottingham Forest) at 66.2 pP is the best-value route into the Forest clean sheet, with 0.106 projected assists from full-back on top of a 30.4% shutout chance. Jan Paul van Hecke (Tottenham Hotspur) at 66.2 pP is the same idea at home to Aston Villa. Both rank well inside the top 15 defenders and neither is a name that dominates team sheets. Compare the whole position on the Elevens player picks page.

Best midfielders for Gameweek 5

Bruno Fernandes (Manchester United) is the single best midfield projection in Elevens for Gameweek 5 at 107.9 pP, and the gap to second is enormous — 27.8 points. He takes United's penalties with a 0.97 share, is projected for 0.294 goals and 0.526 assists at Fulham, and is expected to play 87 minutes. Over six rounds he scores 375 on our decay-weighted measure, which is the highest of any player in the game, forward or midfielder. If he is not in your squad, that is the transfer.

Morgan Gibbs-White (Nottingham Forest) at 80.1 pP is the best one-week midfield buy on the board. Coventry City at home, a 0.76 penalty share and 0.428 projected goals make him a genuine captaincy outsider. Be clear-eyed about the shape of it though: 80.1 → 61.3 → 44.7 over Gameweeks 5 to 7. This is a buy for this week and next, not a set-and-forget pick.

Dominik Szoboszlai (Liverpool) at 72.2 pP carries a 0.99 penalty share at Bournemouth and holds up better across the horizon (248 weighted), with 0.252 projected assists. Cole Palmer (Chelsea) at 70.7 pP is the most reliable minutes profile in the position — 90 projected minutes, a 0.88 penalty share and the best Gameweek 6 projection of the premium midfielders at 74.7.

Enzo Fernández (Manchester City) at 69.7 pP has the fixture everyone wants but only 62 projected minutes. He is a high-ceiling, low-floor pick against Sunderland, and if you want City midfield exposure with more security, Elliot Anderson (Manchester City) at 66.0 pP has a 34.3% clean-sheet share and 70 projected minutes. Morgan Rogers (Chelsea) at 69.1 pP rounds out the top six with 0.324 projected goals at Brentford.

Best forwards for Gameweek 5

Erling Haaland (Manchester City) tops the entire Elevens pool at 110.1 pP. Sunderland at home is the best fixture in the round on every measure, he is projected for 0.884 goals, and he takes penalties with a 0.89 share. There is nothing clever to say here — own him.

Joao Pedro (Chelsea) at 92.6 pP is the second-best forward and the one with the most secure minutes in the position: 90 projected, 0.506 projected goals at Brentford, and a strong follow-up programme (83.2 in Gameweek 6, 80.2 in Gameweek 7). Over six rounds he scores 298 weighted, second only to Haaland among forwards.

Yoane Wissa (Newcastle United) at 76.8 pP is the best short-term forward outside the top two. Hull City at home, 0.451 projected goals and a share of the penalties at 0.34. His programme falls away sharply afterwards — 56.3 in Gameweek 6, 52.9 in Gameweek 7 — so treat him the same way as Gibbs-White: a two-week window, then move on.

Bukayo Saka (Arsenal) at 75.0 pP is the opposite shape. Brighton away is a decent rather than great fixture, but he rises to 86.7 in Gameweek 6 at home to Leeds United and 87.5 in Gameweek 10, and his 272 weighted total is the third-best of any forward. He is a buy now precisely because of what comes next. Dominic Calvert-Lewin (Leeds United) at 70.8 pP is the underrated one — 0.415 projected goals at home to Crystal Palace and a 0.85 penalty share, which is a bigger share than Saka's 0.55.

Captain picks for Gameweek 5

The captain doubles his score in Elevens, so this is the biggest single decision of the week.

1. Erling Haaland (Manchester City) — 110.1 pP. The best projection in the game, the best fixture in the round, and penalties. He is the correct captain and it is not especially close.

2. Bruno Fernandes (Manchester United) — 107.9 pP. Only 2.2 points behind Haaland and with a higher assist projection. If you want to differentiate your armband from the field without giving up expected points, this is how you do it.

3. Joao Pedro (Chelsea) — 92.6 pP. The safest minutes of the three at 90 projected, and Brentford are only 16.9% to keep a clean sheet in this fixture.

Behind them, Morgan Gibbs-White (80.1), Yoane Wissa (76.8) and Bukayo Saka (75.0) are the realistic outsiders. Nobody outside that six should be wearing the armband this week.

Captaincy is a plan rather than a single choice, and the next two Gameweeks make that point neatly. Haaland drops to 78.1 in Gameweek 6 when Manchester City travel to Liverpool, while Bruno Fernandes holds at 109.1 at home to Tottenham Hotspur — so Gameweek 6 is his armband, not Haaland's. Then Gameweek 7 flips back: Manchester City host Ipswich Town and Haaland spikes to 117.1, his best projection of the next six rounds. Owning both premiums means you never have to guess.

Hidden gems and differentials for Gameweek 5

John Egan (Hull City) at 66.4 pP is the most interesting defender in the game this week. Hull City travel to Newcastle United with a 9.5% clean-sheet probability — the second-lowest in the round — and he is still a top-10 defender, because he is projected for 13.4 defensive contributions, the most of any defender in Gameweek 5 by a wide margin. This is a pick that does not need the shutout to pay, and almost nobody will have it.

Malick Thiaw (Newcastle United) at 68.6 pP and Sven Botman (Newcastle United) at 68.1 pP are the two quietest ways into the second-best defensive fixture of the round. Thiaw has a 35.2% clean-sheet probability and 8.0 projected defensive contributions; Botman is at 32.2% and 7.5. Both rank inside the top six defenders for the Gameweek and both are well off the template. Pairing Lukas Hornicek with Lewis Hall, Malick Thiaw and Sven Botman on the same Hull City fixture is legal in Elevens and is the single highest-correlation play available this week.

Mamadou Sangare (Brentford) at 65.1 pP and Anton Stach (Leeds United) at 66.1 pP are the defensive-contribution midfielders — 9.8 and 9.3 projected contributions respectively, both top-four in the position. Stach also gets Crystal Palace at home with a 27.2% clean-sheet share, so he has two ways to score.

Thiago Rodrigues (Brentford) at 69.2 pP is the forward differential. He is Brentford's penalty taker with a 0.91 share, is projected for the full 90 minutes and 0.365 goals against Chelsea, and is one of the least-owned players anywhere near the top of the forward rankings. Mikkel Damsgaard (Brentford) at 60.1 pP is the same fixture from midfield with 0.148 projected assists.

The live solver will put the exact optimal combination together for you — see the Elevens optimal teams page, which re-solves against the current projections every time you load it.

Who to sell before Gameweek 5

Ismaila Sarr (Crystal Palace) is the clearest sell in the game. He is flagged unavailable with a return date of 20 September — after this Gameweek's deadline — and his projection has collapsed to 1.7 pP, which ranks him 115th among forwards. He is still one of the most widely held players in Elevens. Move him.

Pedro Neto (Chelsea) is the most-owned player in the game and only the 18th-best forward for Gameweek 5 at 57.0 pP, with a trajectory that falls the whole way: 57.0 → 52.5 → 50.8 → 47.3 across Gameweeks 5 to 8. Joao Pedro is a straight upgrade in the same team and the same fixture at 92.6 pP.

Romeo Lavia (Chelsea) is the sharpest decline on the board — 43.5 pP for Gameweek 5, 44th among midfielders, falling to 39.1, 34.7 and 31.6 over the following three rounds on 67 projected minutes. Adam Wharton (Crystal Palace) at 43.9 pP is 42nd in the position and Tyrick Mitchell (Crystal Palace) at 46.6 pP is 49th among defenders — both are widely held and both are being out-projected by players almost nobody owns.

One nuance worth flagging rather than a straight sell: Reece James (Chelsea) is excellent for this Gameweek at 68.7 pP, fourth among defenders, but his programme falls off a cliff immediately afterwards — 49.5 in Gameweek 6 and 47.4 in Gameweek 8. Keep him for Gameweek 5, then plan the move.

Looking ahead to Gameweek 6 and 7

Arsenal are the standout target for the next two rounds. They host Leeds United in Gameweek 6 with a 72.8% win probability and a 52.3% clean-sheet probability — the best combined profile of any team in the next three Gameweeks — which is why Saka rises to 86.7, Kai Havertz to 84.3 and Christos Tzolis to 77.5. Bringing an Arsenal attacker in now, while their Gameweek 5 fixture is merely fine, is the classic get-ahead-of-the-crowd move.

Manchester City are the team to be careful with. Liverpool away in Gameweek 6 drops their whole squad, then Ipswich Town at home in Gameweek 7 is the single best fixture of the next three rounds. If you only want one City player through that stretch, make it Haaland, whose Gameweek 7 projection of 117.1 is the highest single-round number our model has for anyone in the next six weeks.

Newcastle United go the other way. Hull City at home in Gameweek 5 is their peak, and Lewis Hall falls from 73.7 to 63.8 and then 61.6. If you take the Newcastle stack this week, take it knowing it is a one-week stack.

For the full round-by-round breakdown of every player, use the Elevens player picks tool, and for the rest of the season's analysis see the Elevens preview hub. If you missed it, the Elevens Gameweek 4 preview covers how the previous round shaped up. New to the format? Start with our fantasy football guides.

FAQ

Who should I captain in Elevens Gameweek 5?

Erling Haaland is the best captain for Elevens Gameweek 5 at 110.1 pP, the highest projection of any player in the game. Manchester City host Sunderland with a 74.0% win probability and 2.38 expected goals, the best fixture of the round on every measure, and Haaland takes penalties with a 0.89 share. Bruno Fernandes at 107.9 pP is the differential armband, and Joao Pedro at 92.6 pP is the third option.

Which defenders are best for Elevens Gameweek 5?

Lewis Hall leads all defenders for Gameweek 5 at 73.7 pP, with Newcastle United at home to Hull City giving him a 33.1% clean-sheet probability plus 5.7 projected defensive contributions. Virgil van Dijk (71.8 pP) and James Tarkowski (71.5 pP) follow, and Josko Gvardiol has the highest individual clean-sheet probability of any outfield defender at 43.3%.

Should I sell Pedro Neto before Gameweek 5?

Yes. Pedro Neto is the most widely owned player in Elevens but only the 18th-best forward for Gameweek 5 at 57.0 pP, and his projection falls every round from there — 52.5, 50.8 and 47.3 across Gameweeks 6 to 8. His Chelsea team-mate Joao Pedro is projected at 92.6 pP in the same fixture, which makes the swap a 35-point upgrade for the Gameweek.

Best differentials for Elevens Gameweek 5?

John Egan is the standout differential at 66.4 pP — he is projected for 13.4 defensive contributions, the most of any defender in the round, so he scores without needing a clean sheet at Newcastle United. Malick Thiaw (68.6 pP) and Sven Botman (68.1 pP) are the quiet routes into the Hull City fixture, and Thiago Rodrigues (69.2 pP) is Brentford's penalty taker with a full 90 projected minutes.

Who is the best goalkeeper in Elevens Gameweek 5?

Jordan Pickford at 47.4 pP is the top-projected goalkeeper for Gameweek 5. Everton host Ipswich Town with a 35.2% clean-sheet probability and Pickford adds 2.68 projected saves. Lukas Hornicek (46.9 pP) is the better shutout bet at 39.6%, while Gianluigi Donnarumma has the highest clean-sheet probability of any keeper at 48.3% but the lowest save volume of the leading options at 1.86.

This preview was written by TheFantasyTool AI.