Elevens PL Gameweek 5: captain picks, best buys
Elevens Premier League Gameweek 5: best buys, captain picks and differentials
Gameweek 5 is a full round in Elevens Premier League — all twenty clubs have a fixture, there are no blanks and no doubles, so nobody is forced into a transfer this week. That makes it a planning round rather than a firefighting one, and the planning question is the same one the model keeps answering: the squads that win this game are not the ones that guess Gameweek 5 correctly, they are the ones that buy into a three-Gameweek run before everyone else does.
The single biggest feature of the current ownership picture is how heavily the game is stacked into Nottingham Forest. Liam Delap sits at 51.0% owned, Daniel Munoz at 40.1%, Morgan Gibbs-White at 38.2%, Matz Sels at 34.4%, James McAtee at 33.1% and Neco Williams at 31.2%. Forest host Coventry City this week, which is a genuinely good fixture — 57.4% win probability and one of the three best clean-sheet chances in the round. The problem is what comes after it: [A]CRY then [H]ARS, and every Forest asset in the game loses between a third and a half of its projection across those two Gameweeks. Gameweek 5 is the week to act on that, not the week to discover it.
The next three Gameweeks: whose program is worth owning
The table below is the whole argument in one place. The first three number columns are Gameweek 5 only; the last three are the program — the fixture chain for Gameweeks 5, 6 and 7, the sum of expected goals across those three matches, and the expected number of clean sheets out of three. Rank on the program columns, because that is what a transfer made this week is actually buying. Every club has exactly three fixtures in the window, so the totals are directly comparable.
| Team | GW5 fixture | Win % | GW5 xG | GW5 CS | Program (GW5–GW7) | 3-round xG | 3-round CS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MCI | [H]SUN | 74% | 2.37 | 49% | [H]SUN → [A]LIV → [H]IPS | 6.81 | 1.20 |
| ARS | [A]BHA | 56% | 1.83 | 36% | [A]BHA → [H]LEE → [A]NFO | 5.70 | 1.34 |
| MUN | [A]FUL | 48% | 1.82 | 26% | [A]FUL → [H]TOT → [A]LEE | 5.45 | 0.84 |
| CHE | [A]BRE | 42% | 1.76 | 21% | [A]BRE → [H]BOU → [A]EVE | 5.40 | 0.73 |
| NEW | [H]HUL | 60% | 2.02 | 36% | [H]HUL → [A]COV → [H]AVL | 5.31 | 0.91 |
| LIV | [A]BOU | 45% | 1.83 | 22% | [A]BOU → [H]MCI → [A]BRE | 4.85 | 0.64 |
| FUL | [H]MUN | 27% | 1.33 | 16% | [H]MUN → [A]IPS → [H]HUL | 4.67 | 0.81 |
| TOT | [H]AVL | 48% | 1.65 | 32% | [H]AVL → [A]MUN → [H]COV | 4.62 | 0.83 |
| BOU | [H]LIV | 31% | 1.52 | 16% | [H]LIV → [A]CHE → [H]SUN | 4.57 | 0.63 |
| EVE | [H]IPS | 55% | 1.83 | 35% | [H]IPS → [A]HUL → [H]CHE | 4.56 | 0.93 |
| BRE | [H]CHE | 34% | 1.58 | 17% | [H]CHE → [A]AVL → [H]LIV | 4.41 | 0.59 |
| BHA | [H]ARS | 20% | 1.02 | 16% | [H]ARS → [A]SUN → [H]CRY | 4.38 | 0.76 |
| AVL | [A]TOT | 26% | 1.15 | 19% | [A]TOT → [H]BRE → [A]NEW | 4.00 | 0.64 |
| NFO | [H]COV | 57% | 1.86 | 38% | [H]COV → [A]CRY → [H]ARS | 3.89 | 0.86 |
| LEE | [H]CRY | 54% | 1.82 | 34% | [H]CRY → [A]ARS → [H]MUN | 3.83 | 0.66 |
| CRY | [A]LEE | 21% | 1.07 | 16% | [A]LEE → [H]NFO → [A]BHA | 3.48 | 0.59 |
| IPS | [A]EVE | 21% | 1.06 | 16% | [A]EVE → [H]FUL → [A]MCI | 3.24 | 0.46 |
| COV | [A]NFO | 18% | 0.97 | 16% | [A]NFO → [H]NEW → [A]TOT | 3.17 | 0.50 |
| SUN | [A]MCI | 9% | 0.71 | 9% | [A]MCI → [H]BHA → [A]BOU | 3.03 | 0.52 |
| HUL | [A]NEW | 17% | 1.01 | 13% | [A]NEW → [H]EVE → [A]FUL | 2.90 | 0.53 |
Manchester City own the best attacking program in the game at 6.81 expected goals and 1.20 expected clean sheets from [H]SUN → [A]LIV → [H]IPS, and the Liverpool trip in the middle is the week to plan around rather than avoid. Arsenal are the defensive answer: 1.34 expected clean sheets across [A]BHA → [H]LEE → [A]NFO is the highest in the league, and it is the only program whose weakest defensive fixture is still a better than one-in-three clean-sheet chance. Manchester United (5.45 xG) and Chelsea (5.40) are the next tier, and both improve in Gameweek 6.
At the other end, Hull City (2.90 xG, 0.53 expected clean sheets), Sunderland (3.03), Coventry City (3.17) and Ipswich Town (3.24) are the four programs to stay away from entirely. Forest's 3.89 and Leeds United's 3.83 are worse than their Gameweek 5 fixtures suggest, which is exactly the trap the ownership numbers say most squads are currently sitting in. You can check every fixture yourself on the Elevens schedule page, and the underlying match odds on the market probabilities page.
Goalkeepers for Gameweek 5
Jordan Pickford (EVE) is the pick of the position and it is not close over the window: 47.6 projected this Gameweek and 138.2 across the program of [H]IPS → [A]HUL → [H]CHE, the highest three-round total of any keeper in the game. Everton draw Ipswich Town and Hull City in the first two of those, two of the four weakest attacks in the league by expected goals, and 0.93 expected clean sheets from three is a top-four number. He is already 30.6% owned, so this is a template hold rather than a differential — but it is the correct template hold.
Lukas Hornicek (NEW) is the closest alternative at 46.3 this week and 135.2 over [H]HUL → [A]COV → [H]AVL, with the best single-Gameweek clean-sheet chance of any keeper on this list at 36.4% against Hull. At 10.2% ownership he gives you most of Pickford's output with a third of the ownership. If you prefer to build the keeper slot around the best defensive program rather than the best individual fixtures, David Raya (ARS) is the one: 42.7 now, rising to 45.7 in Gameweek 6 against Leeds, 131.4 across [A]BHA → [H]LEE → [A]NFO, and owned by just 1.3% of squads.
Defenders for Gameweek 5
James Tarkowski (EVE) is the best defender in the game over the window — 76.1 this Gameweek and 214.2 across [H]IPS → [A]HUL → [H]CHE, the highest three-round total at the position. His trajectory is 76.1 → 71.7 → 66.4, which is the shape you want from a defender you intend to stop thinking about: it never falls off a cliff. At 38.2% ownership he is not a differential, but he is the anchor most squads should be building the back line around.
Gabriel (ARS) is the differential version of the same idea, and the numbers barely separate them: 210.2 across the program against Tarkowski's 214.2, on a trajectory that actually rises into Gameweek 6 (68.8 → 76.8 → 64.6) because Arsenal host Leeds United that week. Arsenal's 1.34 expected clean sheets over three is the best defensive program in the league, and only 1.9% of squads own him. Virgil van Dijk (LIV) is on the same ownership level at 1.9% and projects 208.9 over [A]BOU → [H]MCI → [A]BRE — the Manchester City home game in the middle is the one weak link, and even carrying it he is the third-best defender in the game across the three.
Lewis Hall (NEW) has the highest single Gameweek 5 score of any defender at 79.7, and this is where the program view earns its keep: his run reads 79.7 → 60.7 → 56.0 for 196.4, because Newcastle go from [H]HUL to [A]COV to [H]AVL and the attacking returns dry up. Buy him if you want the biggest number this week, but buy him knowing he is a one-to-two-Gameweek play rather than a hold, and name the Gameweek you sell him again. Tarik Muharemovic (LEE) is a similar shape at 73.7 this week and 197.6 over [H]CRY → [A]ARS → [H]MUN, with Gameweek 6 at Arsenal the obvious hole in it.
The value-shaped pick of the position is Antonee Robinson (FUL), and he is the only defender on this list whose projection goes up every single Gameweek: 64.3 → 68.1 → 75.9 for 208.3 across [H]MUN → [A]IPS → [H]HUL. He also carries a 0.91 penalty share, which is an unusual thing for a defender to own and is most of the reason his ceiling holds up against Manchester United this week. David Affengruber (FUL) gives you the same program at 205.9 without the penalties, and James Hill (BOU) projects 206.5 over [H]LIV → [A]CHE → [H]SUN with the friendly fixture arriving last.
Midfielders for Gameweek 5
Bruno Fernandes (MUN) is the buy of the Gameweek at any position. He projects 98.7 this week and 294.4 across [A]FUL → [H]TOT → [A]LEE — that is more than 50 points clear of the next-best midfielder over the same three matches, and his trajectory rises rather than falls (98.7 → 106.6 → 89.1). He takes United's penalties with a 0.99 share and is projected for 89 minutes. He is owned by 1.3% of squads. There is no version of this decision that involves waiting.
Cole Palmer (CHE) is the second midfielder to own and the case is built on Gameweek 6, not this one: 79.3 now, 91.2 next week when Chelsea host Bournemouth, 241.6 across [A]BRE → [H]BOU → [A]EVE. Chelsea's away trip to Brentford this week is the weakest link in that chain and he still projects top-three at the position, which is the definition of a pick you buy before the good run rather than during it. He has a 0.98 penalty share and 1.9% ownership.
Among the more widely-owned midfielders, Anton Stach (LEE) is the one whose program survives contact: 78.6 this week and 199.7 over [H]CRY → [A]ARS → [H]MUN, at 26.8% ownership. Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall (EVE) is the flattest hold in the position at 74.9 → 64.1 → 61.7 for 200.7 on [H]IPS → [A]HUL → [H]CHE — nothing spectacular, nothing to manage. If you want the low-ownership routes instead, Florian Wirtz (LIV) projects 208.3 over [A]BOU → [H]MCI → [A]BRE at 0.6% ownership, Morgan Rogers (CHE) 205.3 on Chelsea's improving run at 0.6%, and Marcus Tavernier (BOU) 193.8 at 4.5% on a genuinely flat 66.9 → 60.0 → 66.9.
Forwards for Gameweek 5
Erling Haaland (MCI) is the highest-projected player in the game this week at 111.4, and the program behind it is the best in the league: 299.2 across [H]SUN → [A]LIV → [H]IPS. City host the weakest side in the round — Sunderland carry an 8.7% win probability and 0.71 expected goals — and Haaland owns a 0.94 penalty share on a team projected for 2.37 goals. His middle Gameweek dips to 77.4 at Anfield before rebounding to 110.4 against Ipswich, so the dip is real, priced in, and still leaves him the best forward in the game across the three. He is owned by 3.2% of squads.
Bukayo Saka (ARS) is the second forward, on 84.6 now and 249.6 over [A]BHA → [H]LEE → [A]NFO, and his best Gameweek of the three is Gameweek 6 at 92.3. Bryan Mbeumo (MUN) at 210.7 and Kai Havertz (ARS) at 213.3 are the next two; Havertz is the better Gameweek 6 asset of the pair (83.1 against Leeds) while Mbeumo is the steadier Gameweek 5 pick at 77.0. Doubling up on the Arsenal or Manchester United attack over this window is defensible on the numbers — both programs hold up across all three rounds rather than leaning on one fixture.
Two forwards project big this week and should be treated as rotation plays rather than holds. Yoane Wissa (NEW) is at 76.8 against Hull with a 0.83 penalty share, then 56.4 and 49.6 — buy him for the Hull game and name Gameweek 6 as the exit. Dominic Calvert-Lewin (LEE) is the sharper version: 76.2 at home to Crystal Palace, then 35.4 at Arsenal, the single steepest one-week fall of any player in the game. Both are legitimate one-round buys as long as you say so out loud when you make them.
Captain picks for Gameweek 5
The captain scores double in Elevens Premier League, so the armband is worth more than any single transfer you make this week — and because the same premium can captain more than one of the next three rounds, it is worth choosing with the program in mind.
- Erling Haaland (MCI) — 111.4, the highest projection in the game, at home to the weakest opponent of the round. Program: [H]SUN → [A]LIV → [H]IPS. He is also the Gameweek 7 captain on current numbers (110.4), so owning him covers two of the next three armbands.
- Bruno Fernandes (MUN) — 98.7 at Fulham, on penalties, and he is the Gameweek 6 captain at 106.6 when United host Tottenham. Program: [A]FUL → [H]TOT → [A]LEE. If you only own one of the top two, this is the one whose armband case survives the whole window.
- Morgan Gibbs-White (NFO) — 87.4 at home to Coventry, the second-highest midfield score of the round and a fair captain choice this week. Just note the program behind it: [H]COV → [A]CRY → [H]ARS drops him to 60.4 and then 45.4, so this is the last Gameweek his armband makes sense for a while.
- Bukayo Saka (ARS) — 84.6 at Brighton on [A]BHA → [H]LEE → [A]NFO, with 87 projected minutes and his best round of the three, 92.3, still to come in Gameweek 6.
Hidden gems and differentials
Ownership in this game is concentrated in a small number of names, which makes the gap between the model's ranking and the template unusually wide. Bruno Fernandes at 1.3% is the headline — the best midfielder in the game over three Gameweeks, in fewer than two squads in a hundred. Behind him, Gabriel (ARS) at 1.9% on the league's best defensive program, Morgan Rogers (CHE) at 0.6% on [A]BRE → [H]BOU → [A]EVE, and Nico Elvedi (LEE) at 72.4 this week and 188.9 over [H]CRY → [A]ARS → [H]MUN are all rated well ahead of far more heavily owned names at the same positions.
The two Fulham defenders deserve a second mention here. Antonee Robinson and David Affengruber project 208.3 and 205.9 across [H]MUN → [A]IPS → [H]HUL, with the last two of those against bottom-four attacks, and Fulham are barely represented in the ownership table at all. Robinson's penalty share makes him the better of the two. You can sort the full pool yourself on the Elevens player picks page, and see what a fully optimised squad for this Gameweek looks like on the optimal teams page.
Who to sell before Gameweek 5
Liam Delap (NFO) is the clearest sale in the game and he is also its most-owned player at 51.0%. His program is [H]COV → [A]CRY → [H]ARS and his projection reads 58.4 → 38.2 → 26.7 for 123.3 across the three. Why now: this week's home game against Coventry is his best fixture of the three and 58.4 is a perfectly respectable score — this is not a bad week for him. But twenty forwards project higher this Gameweek, and you only get one free transfer a week, so moving now costs you the smallest gap you will see all month. Waiting means spending the same transfer later and paying for [A]CRY and [H]ARS on the way.
Enzo Fernández (MCI) is the oddest line in the ownership table: 42.7% of squads own him, and he projects 51.0 in the single best fixture of the entire round. Why now: if a midfielder cannot clear 55 at home to Sunderland, the fixture was never the issue, and City's program turns to [A]LIV next week where he drops to 45.3. The transfer you would make in Gameweek 6 is available on better terms this week.
Matz Sels (NFO) at 34.4% ownership projects 117.5 across the program, against 138.2 for Pickford and 135.2 for Hornicek — a 20-point gap over three Gameweeks at the position where the alternatives are easiest to find. Why now: [H]COV is the best clean-sheet chance he gets in the window at 38.0%, and both [A]CRY and [H]ARS are below it, so every week you wait makes the same swap worth less. James McAtee (NFO) is the same story one position forward: 69.8 → 46.1 → 32.6 for 148.5, a fall of more than half across two Gameweeks.
Two more worth checking. Anthony Elanga (NEW) is owned by 17.2% of squads and is currently flagged unavailable with a return date of 17 October, so the model gives him nothing at all in Gameweeks 5 and 6 and only 35.2 in Gameweek 7. That is a squad slot doing nothing for two full rounds. And on Morgan Gibbs-White (NFO), the honest answer is that you can wait a round on this one: 87.4 is the second-best midfield projection of the Gameweek, so take the Coventry game and make the move in Gameweek 6, when his number falls to 60.4. Check the predicted lineups before the Gameweek 5 deadline on 18 September in case anything changes.
For the round before this one, see our Elevens Premier League Gameweek 4 preview, and every round of analysis for this game is collected in the Elevens preview hub. More background reading is in our fantasy football guides.
FAQ
Who should I captain in Elevens Premier League Gameweek 5?
Erling Haaland. He projects 111.4, the highest figure of any player in Gameweek 5, at home to Sunderland — the weakest opponent of the round at 8.7% win probability and 0.71 expected goals — and he holds a 0.94 penalty share. Bruno Fernandes at 98.7 is the alternative, and he is the better armband from Gameweek 6 onwards.
Should I sell Liam Delap before Gameweek 5?
Yes. He is the most-owned player in the game at 51.0% and projects 58.4 → 38.2 → 26.7 across [H]COV → [A]CRY → [H]ARS, a three-round total of 123.3. The Coventry fixture this week is the best of the three, which is exactly why this is the cheapest week to make the move rather than a later one.
Which defenders are best for Elevens Gameweek 5?
James Tarkowski leads the position over the next three Gameweeks with 214.2 on [H]IPS → [A]HUL → [H]CHE, and Lewis Hall has the single highest Gameweek 5 score at 79.7. For a differential, Gabriel projects 210.2 on Arsenal's league-best 1.34 expected clean sheets from three, at 1.9% ownership.
Best differentials for Elevens Premier League Gameweek 5?
Bruno Fernandes at 1.3% ownership is the standout — 294.4 projected over three Gameweeks, more than 50 clear of the next midfielder. Cole Palmer (1.9%), Gabriel (1.9%), Antonee Robinson and Morgan Rogers (0.6%) are the other four the model rates far above their ownership.
Does anyone blank in Elevens Gameweek 5?
No. All twenty Premier League clubs have exactly one fixture in Gameweek 5, and each of them also has exactly one fixture in Gameweeks 6 and 7, so the three-round totals in this preview are directly comparable across every team.
This preview was written by TheFantasyTool AI.