Elevens Gameweek 4: captain picks and best buys

Elevens Premier League Gameweek 4 preview: best buys, differentials and who to sell

Elevens Premier League Gameweek 4 is built around one enormous fixture. Chelsea host Hull City with a 79% win probability and 2.72 expected goals — the best attacking projection of the round by a wide margin — and Chelsea supply the two highest individual projections in the game. Arsenal are the counterweight: they carry the round’s best clean sheet projection at 50.2%, a fraction ahead of Chelsea’s 49.8%.

None of that is where the gameweek is won. Everyone reading a projection page will own the Chelsea pair. Gameweek 4 is decided in the six or seven squad places nobody discusses — the defenders who score through volume rather than clean sheets, the forwards with one big week and nothing behind it, and the Chelsea and Liverpool assets that peak now and fall away immediately. Elevens applies no price constraint, so every decision is a straight comparison of projected points per squad slot. Below: the best buys by position, the ranked captain picks, the differentials the model likes, and who to move on.

Gameweek 4 fixtures: where the points are

All twenty clubs play in Gameweek 4, so there are no blanks to plan around. Ten fixtures run from Saturday 12 September through to Monday evening, with the deadline before the first Saturday kick-off. The full fixture list is on the Elevens Premier League schedule page, and the win and clean-sheet markets behind these numbers are on the Elevens market probabilities page.

Three of those deserve a second look. Chelsea lead the round on the attacking and the defensive projection at once, which almost never happens — 2.72 expected goals alongside a 49.8% clean sheet chance. That is why their attackers and their defenders are both worth owning this week, and also why the exit needs planning before you buy.

Arsenal own the round’s best clean sheet number at 50.2% on a more modest 1.84 expected goals. They are the defensive buy of the week rather than the attacking one, though Bukayo Saka makes their attack usable too. Liverpool are the opposite shape: the round’s second-best attack at 2.33 expected goals, but only a 36% clean sheet chance at home to Fulham. Buy Liverpool for goals, not for defensive returns.

The marquee fixture, Manchester United - Manchester City, projects close to a coin toss: City 45% to win on 1.78 expected goals, United 31% on 1.45, with clean sheet chances of just 23% and 17%. Attack that game; do not build a back line around it. At the other end, Hull City (7% clean sheet, 7% win) and Sunderland (16%, 13%) carry the weakest projections of the round — which matters for one differential below, but rules out most of their squads.

Best captain picks for Gameweek 4

The captain scores double in Elevens, so this is the highest-leverage call of the week. The model’s ranking for Gameweek 4:

Joao Pedro (Chelsea) is the captain. 131.3 xP is the highest single-round projection of any player in the game and it is not close — the gap to second is 13.4 points. He is projected for the full 90 at 0.81 expected goals and 0.23 expected assists against the weakest defensive projection of the round.

Cole Palmer (Chelsea) at 117.9 xP is the alternative, and the better pick if you want the penalty attached: a 99% penalty share on top of 0.54 expected goals and 0.41 expected assists across a full 90. Captaining either is defensible; captaining neither is hard to justify given the fixture.

Florian Wirtz (Liverpool) is third on 95.1 xP and the way to avoid doubling into one result. If you already own both Chelsea attackers, moving the armband to Liverpool means a single Chelsea off-day does not sink the round.

Best goalkeepers for Gameweek 4

The tightest position of the round: the top three keepers sit within 0.3 xP of each other, so the choice is about which kind of return you want.

• Alisson Becker (Liverpool) — 44.2 xP, a 36% clean sheet at home to Fulham with 2.67 projected saves. The balanced option.
• Caoimhin Kelleher (Brentford) — 44.2 xP, the save-volume pick: 3.66 projected saves at Bournemouth on only a 21% clean sheet chance. His floor does not depend on a shut-out.
• David Raya (Arsenal) — 43.9 xP with the round’s best clean sheet projection at 50.2% away to Sunderland, though only 2.06 projected saves behind it.
• Jordan Pickford (Everton) — 43.0 xP is modest this week, but his 160.4 weighted six-round score is the best of any keeper, with [H]Ipswich Town and [A]Hull City to come.
• Robin Roefs (Sunderland) — 41.5 xP on 3.86 projected saves, second only to Bernd Leno of Fulham on 4.13, because Arsenal are coming. A pure volume punt on a 16% clean sheet chance.

Take David Raya for the clean sheet, Caoimhin Kelleher for the floor that does not need one, and Jordan Pickford if you would rather not think about the position again for a month.

Best defenders for Gameweek 4

Elevens rewards defensive actions as well as clean sheets, which splits this position into two different kinds of buy. Both are worth owning and confusing them is the commonest mistake in the game — the projected clearance, block and interception numbers behind each pick are on the Elevens player picks page.

• Reece James (Chelsea) — 85.2 xP, the best single fixture available to a defender: a 49.8% clean sheet chance plus genuine attacking threat, at 0.11 expected goals and 0.18 expected assists across a full 90.
• Virgil van Dijk (Liverpool) — 83.3 xP, and the best defender to own beyond this week. His 264.0 weighted six-round score leads the position, built on 8.0 projected defensive actions a game rather than on clean sheet odds.
• Olivier Boscagli (Brighton) — 76.7 xP on 7.5 projected defensive actions and a 33% clean sheet chance at Coventry City. His partner Luka Vuskovic is a fraction behind on 76.5 xP but ahead on the six-round view, 240.5 weighted against 230.9.
• Wesley Fofana (Chelsea) — 76.1 xP on 81 projected minutes and 8.1 defensive actions, the highest-volume route into the Chelsea clean sheet.
• James Hill (AFC Bournemouth) — 75.4 xP on 10.9 projected defensive actions across a guaranteed 90. Only a 22% clean sheet chance at home to Brentford, and it barely matters.
• Gabriel (Arsenal) — 73.3 xP, pairing that 50.2% clean sheet chance with 7.0 projected defensive actions.
• Jaydee Canvot (Crystal Palace) — 72.2 xP with 10.2 defensive actions and a full 90 at home to Ipswich Town. Chris Richards is the same fixture on 71.0 xP.
• Pedro Porro (Tottenham Hotspur) — 70.9 xP at home to Everton, on a 234.8 weighted score with [H]Aston Villa following.

One caveat on the Chelsea back line: Josh Acheampong is a strong week at 75.8 xP followed by 34.1 and 49.2, and one of their regulars is projected outside the starting eleven altogether — see the sell section. Check the Elevens predicted lineups before the deadline if you are buying into that clean sheet.

Best midfielders for Gameweek 4

• Cole Palmer (Chelsea) — 117.9 xP, the top midfielder in the game and covered in the captaincy section above.
• Bruno Fernandes (Manchester United) — 90.8 xP this week, and a 368.3 weighted six-round score that is the highest of any player in the game. His projection runs 90.8 → 110.6 → 110.1 → 99.3 → 113.1 → 93.6, with [H]Man City first, then [A]Fulham and [H]Tottenham. He also holds a 99% penalty share. If you spend one transfer this week, this is the one that keeps paying.
• Florian Wirtz (Liverpool) — 95.1 xP on a full start against the round’s second-best attacking fixture. A clean buy for this week, but read the rentals section first: he drops to 76.2 and then 66.5.
• Marcus Tavernier (AFC Bournemouth) — 76.7 xP, the best midfielder outside the established top clubs, with 0.29 expected goals and 5.9 defensive actions at home to Brentford, on a 246.9 weighted score.
• Dominik Szoboszlai (Liverpool) — 74.8 xP and the Liverpool midfielder to hold rather than rent: a 99% penalty share, a full 90, 0.32 expected assists, and a 254.9 weighted score that decays far more slowly than Florian Wirtz’s.
• Anton Stach (Leeds United) — 68.8 xP on 10.0 projected defensive actions, unusual volume for a midfielder and a floor that does not need Leeds to attack well. Alex Scott (AFC Bournemouth, 65.2 xP, 9.8 defensive actions) is the same idea a tier down.
• Pascal Gross (Brighton) — 66.9 xP as Brighton’s 94% penalty taker at Coventry City. Malick Junior Yalcouyé is the same fixture on 65.3 xP.

Morgan Gibbs-White (63.1 xP) is a buy-next-week case rather than a buy-now. Forest travel to Aston Villa this round, but his projection jumps to 80.5 in Gameweek 5 with [H]Coventry City, and he carries a 68% penalty share.

Best forwards for Gameweek 4

• Joao Pedro (Chelsea) — 131.3 xP. The best projection in the game and the captain pick.
• Cody Gakpo (Liverpool) — 91.4 xP on 84 projected minutes, with 0.45 expected goals and 0.23 expected assists against Fulham. A strong week and very little behind it.
• Erling Haaland (Manchester City) — 89.3 xP away at Manchester United, only the third-best forward number this week but comfortably the best investment. His 350.9 weighted score is second only to Bruno Fernandes, his projection runs 89.3 → 116.3 → 78.7 → 120.3 with [H]Sunderland then [A]Liverpool, and he holds a 97% penalty share on 0.72 expected goals.
• Alexander Isak (Liverpool) — 88.5 xP, but on only 74 projected minutes and with 69.7, 56.1 and 55.5 behind it. Own him this week; plan the exit.
• Bukayo Saka (Arsenal) — 87.5 xP on 87 projected minutes at a 0.99 starter factor, a nailed start attached to the round’s best clean sheet fixture. His 266.3 weighted score is the third-best of any forward, so this is a buy for the run rather than for one week.
• Pedro Neto (Chelsea) — 79.0 xP on 76 projected minutes, the third Chelsea attacker worth owning and the simplest way to add a second slice of that fixture.
• Kai Havertz (Arsenal) — 77.2 xP, attached to the round’s best clean sheet team but with 0.39 expected goals of his own. He is the Arsenal centre-forward pick, because Viktor Gyökeres is projected for only 40 minutes at a 0.36 starter factor.
• Charalampos Kostoulas (Brighton) — 76.3 xP on 0.39 expected goals at Coventry City. A strong one-week number that falls to 53.9 afterwards.
• Thiago Rodrigues (Brentford) — 68.5 xP with a full 90, a 99% penalty share, and the flattest profile of any forward in this range: 68.5, 65.7, 64.2, 62.7, 76.7, 64.7 across six rounds.

Beyond those, Dominic Calvert-Lewin (70.4 xP, 89% penalty share), Yéremi Pino (70.7 xP) and Evanilson (68.7 xP) are usable if you need a fourth forward, and Bryan Mbeumo (65.0 xP) is the better hold of the two Manchester United attackers over the next month on a 244.0 weighted score.

Hidden gems and differentials for Gameweek 4

These are the picks that decide league position, because the obvious Chelsea and Liverpool names will be in almost every squad. Elevens does not publish ownership data, so these are framed by role and fixture obscurity rather than by a percentage — what they share is that nothing about the fixture makes them look attractive at a glance.

• John Egan (Hull City) — 68.9 xP, still the most counter-intuitive pick of the round. Hull travel to Chelsea with a 7% clean sheet chance, which would normally rule out every defender they own. He is projected for 14.3 clearances, blocks and interceptions, the highest defensive-action volume of any player in the game, across a guaranteed 90. It works precisely because Hull will spend the afternoon defending. His projection has eased since last week, so treat him as a strong one-round play rather than the season-long hold he looked before.
• Bobby Thomas (Coventry City) — 69.7 xP. A newly promoted side hosting Brighton is the last place most managers look, and he is projected for 87 minutes on 9.0 defensive actions with a 233.4 weighted score behind it.
• Dara O'Shea (Ipswich Town) — 67.1 xP on the same principle: 10.3 projected defensive actions, a full 90, and a schedule that guarantees him work. His projection barely moves across six rounds — 67.1, 64.4, 65.6, 57.3, 66.7, 66.1 — which makes him the most predictable defender in the game and an ideal set-and-forget slot.
• Adrien Truffert (AFC Bournemouth) — 67.7 xP on a full 90 and 8.0 defensive actions, a quieter route into the same Bournemouth fixture everyone is buying James Hill for.
• Joachim Andersen (Fulham) — 64.7 xP at Anfield, which nobody will look at, on 9.6 projected defensive actions and a full 90. His 242.9 weighted score is now the second-best of any defender in the game, and unlike most of this list his projection actually rises from here: 64.7, 66.1, 69.8, 74.8.
• James Tarkowski (Everton) — 64.3 xP is only mid-table for this round, but a 240.8 weighted score is fourth-best among defenders and his projection climbs to 73.0 and 72.8 in the next two rounds with [H]Ipswich Town and [A]Hull City. A buy-now-for-later name.
• Sven Botman (Newcastle United) — 64.8 xP on 8.3 defensive actions, rising to 71.3 next round. Newcastle at Leeds on a Monday night is a fixture almost nobody is planning around.

The Elevens optimal teams solver builds a full legal squad against these exact projections live, which is the quickest way to see how many of these differentials the numbers actually want at once.

Who to sell or avoid before Gameweek 4

Elevens has no price movement, so selling is purely about projected points from here. These are the names whose current projections do not support a squad slot on Saturday.

• Nathan Collins (Brentford) — zero projected minutes and 0.0 xP this round, and 0.0 again in Gameweek 5. Whatever your defensive plan is, he is not in it.
• Levi Colwill (Chelsea) — projected outside the Chelsea starting eleven at 40 minutes and 38.6 xP. On the best defensive fixture of the round that is a wasted slot; use one of the other Chelsea defenders. His projection does recover to 54.9 and 60.1 afterwards, so this is a sell-and-revisit.
• Viktor Gyökeres (Arsenal) — 38.1 xP on 40 projected minutes at a 0.36 starter factor, and it gets worse: 26.3, 24.0, 26.8. Kai Havertz is the Arsenal forward the model wants.
• Dango Ouattara (Brentford) — 41.0 xP on 47 projected minutes, and 35.9 after that. His projection recovers to the low 50s from Gameweek 6, so this is another sell-and-revisit rather than a permanent exit.
• Johan Manzambi (Aston Villa) — 7.6 xP on 8 projected minutes. Any squad still carrying him should use a transfer.

One-round rentals: plan the exit before you buy

This is the more important list, because it is full of names that look like straightforward buys. Every one is a genuine Gameweek 4 pick and a genuine problem the moment the round ends, so bring them in knowing the transfer back out is already spoken for.

• Victor Munoz (Liverpool) — 74.2 xP this round and then 24.1, 20.7 and 22.1. The steepest single-round collapse of any well-projected player in the game, on a 136.0 weighted score.
• Reece James (Chelsea) — 85.2 xP is the best defensive number of the round, but it falls to 61.6, 58.1 and 60.0 as Chelsea go [A]Brentford then [H]Bournemouth.
• Josh Acheampong (Chelsea) — 75.8 xP followed by 34.1, the sharpest fall on the Chelsea back line.
• Cody Gakpo (Liverpool) — 91.4 xP, then 59.1 and 51.4, for a 232.8 weighted score that is the weakest of any player in this round’s top six.
• Charalampos Kostoulas (Brighton) — 76.3 xP, then 53.9. Fine to own this week, not worth the slot beyond it.
• Florian Wirtz (Liverpool) — 95.1 now, 76.2 and 66.5 next. If you can only keep one Liverpool midfielder past this round, keep Dominik Szoboszlai on his 254.9 weighted score instead.
• Wesley Fofana (Chelsea) — 76.1 xP, then 57.3 and 51.6. The whole Chelsea back line shares that profile.

Planning past Gameweek 4

With one free transfer a round and extra moves costing points, the fixtures beyond this week should already be shaping what you do now. Three things the six-round numbers make clear.

Bruno Fernandes and Erling Haaland are the season assets. Their 368.3 and 350.9 weighted scores are far ahead of the rest of the game, and both are near-certain penalty takers. Neither has the best fixture this round, which is exactly why this is a sensible week to bring them in — you are buying a round before their projections peak rather than a round after.

The Chelsea block is a one-round play. Every Chelsea asset worth owning — Joao Pedro, Cole Palmer, Reece James, Pedro Neto, Wesley Fofana and Josh Acheampong — peaks in Gameweek 4 and declines immediately, with [A]Brentford and then [H]Bournemouth to come. Own them this week; have the exit planned before you buy.

Defensive-action volume travels better than clean sheets. The defenders with the best six-round scores — Virgil van Dijk, Joachim Andersen, James Hill, James Tarkowski and Dara O'Shea — are almost all volume picks rather than clean-sheet picks, because clean-sheet odds swing hard with the fixture while clearances and blocks do not. It is the most useful pattern in this game’s scoring, and it is why the differential list above is full of defenders from struggling teams.

For the full ranked projection table by position, use the Elevens Premier League player picks, and cross-check the expected elevens on the predicted lineups page before the deadline. Last round’s analysis is in our Elevens Premier League Gameweek 3 preview, every round is collected in the Elevens Premier League preview hub, and if you are new to the format our fantasy football guides explain how the scoring and the projections work.

FAQ

Who should I captain in Elevens Premier League Gameweek 4?

Joao Pedro of Chelsea, on 131.3 xP — the highest single-round projection in the game and 13.4 points clear of second place. Chelsea host Hull City with a 79% win probability and 2.72 expected goals, and he is projected for a full 90 minutes at 0.81 expected goals. Cole Palmer (117.9 xP, 99% penalty share) is the alternative if you want the penalty attached, and Florian Wirtz (95.1 xP) is third and the way to avoid doubling into one fixture.

Which defenders are best for Gameweek 4?

Reece James (Chelsea) leads on 85.2 xP thanks to a 49.8% clean sheet chance plus a real attacking threat, but Virgil van Dijk (Liverpool, 83.3 xP) is the better defender to own beyond this week on the best six-round weighted score in the position at 264.0. James Hill (AFC Bournemouth, 75.4 xP) is the best pick whose scoring does not depend on a clean sheet at all, with 10.9 projected defensive actions across a guaranteed 90 minutes.

Should I sell Alexander Isak before Gameweek 4?

Not before it — after it. His 88.5 xP makes him a good asset for this round, but he is projected for only 74 minutes and his projection falls to 69.7, then 56.1 and 55.5 as Liverpool go [A]Bournemouth and then [H]Man City. Take this round’s return and move him on rather than holding through that run. Dominik Szoboszlai is the Liverpool asset to keep instead.

Best differentials for Elevens Premier League Gameweek 4?

John Egan (Hull City, 68.9 xP) is still the standout: 14.3 projected clearances, blocks and interceptions is the highest defensive-action volume in the game, and it works despite Hull having only a 7% clean sheet chance at Chelsea. Bobby Thomas (Coventry City, 69.7 xP), Dara O'Shea (Ipswich Town, 67.1 xP) and Joachim Andersen (Fulham, 64.7 xP) are the same idea, and all four come from fixtures nobody is targeting.

Is Bukayo Saka worth buying for Gameweek 4?

Yes. He is projected for 87 minutes at a 0.99 starter factor, which puts him on 87.5 xP — fifth among forwards for this round — with Arsenal carrying the best clean sheet projection of the gameweek at 50.2%% away to Sunderland. His 266.3 weighted six-round score is the third-best of any forward in the game, so this is a buy for the run rather than for one week.

This preview was written by TheFantasyTool AI.