Elevens Premier League Gameweek 4: best buys

Elevens Premier League Gameweek 4 preview: best buys, differentials and who to sell

Elevens Premier League Gameweek 4 is a one-fixture round with one obvious centre of gravity: Chelsea host Hull City as the biggest favourites on the board, and the model has three of the five highest-projected players in the game coming out of that match. But the round is won and lost after those three names. Elevens scores tackles, interceptions, clearances, aerials and recoveries at a level no other Premier League fantasy game does, which means the best value in Gameweek 4 sits with defenders and holding midfielders who are about to spend ninety minutes defending. This preview ranks the buys by position, names the differentials the model likes, and flags the players whose Gameweek 4 score is a one-week spike you should sell out of.

All numbers below are TheFantasyTool projected points for the round, taken from the same model that powers our Elevens player picks page. The deadline is Saturday 12 September at 13:30, with the first kick-off at 16:00.

Gameweek 4 fixtures that shape the round

Ten matches, spread from Saturday afternoon to a Monday night finish at Elland Road. Four of them matter far more than the rest for team selection.

Chelsea - Hull City is the standout. A 78% win probability with 2.67 expected goals is the highest attacking projection of the round by a distance, and it comes with a 48% clean sheet chance on top. Arsenal - Sunderland is quieter in attack at 1.86 expected goals, but it carries the single best clean sheet number in the Gameweek at 48%, which matters because a clean sheet is worth 15 points to a goalkeeper or defender in Elevens.

The two matches to be careful with are Manchester United against Manchester City and Bournemouth against Brentford. The derby is close to a coin flip with low clean sheet numbers on both sides - 23% for City, 17% for United - and Bournemouth versus Brentford is the tightest fixture of the round at 38% against 37%. Both are still fine for attacking picks; neither is a defensive fixture. Check the full round on the Elevens schedule page and the underlying odds on market probabilities.

Why Elevens Gameweek 4 rewards different players than other fantasy games

This is the one thing to internalise before you make a transfer. Elevens pays 5 points per tackle, 3 per interception, 3 per clearance, 3 per aerial duel won, 3 per ground duel won and 2 per ball recovery. There are no appearance points and no captain. A centre-back who makes twelve defensive actions in a losing performance can out-score a striker who has a quiet game in a win.

That is exactly what the model projects for Gameweek 4. John Egan (Hull City) travels to Stamford Bridge with a 4% clean sheet chance and still projects 71.1 points, because he is forecast for 12.0 defensive actions - the highest single figure in the round. Volume beats fixture in this game more often than managers expect. Across the Gameweek, Everton (8.1 defensive actions per starting defender), Crystal Palace (7.7), Ipswich (7.3), Hull City (7.1) and Bournemouth (7.1) are the highest-volume defensive units, while Manchester City (3.9), Liverpool (4.2) and Arsenal (4.7) sit at the bottom.

The practical consequence: you do not need to chase the clean sheet. You want defenders who are certain to start, play the full ninety, and are busy. A defender in a good fixture who also gets volume - and there are a few this week - is the best of both.

Best goalkeepers for Gameweek 4

Emiliano Martinez (Chelsea) is the top-projected goalkeeper of the round at 46.4 points, on the back of a 48% clean sheet chance against Hull. He is the safest single pick in the position.

David Raya (Arsenal) at 44.2 is effectively the same call from the other high-clean-sheet fixture, and away at Sunderland he carries the highest clean sheet probability in the Gameweek at 48%. If you already own Chelsea's defence and want to spread the risk, Raya is the alternative.

The interesting one is Caoimhin Kelleher (Brentford), projected 44.3 - higher than Raya, despite only a 21% clean sheet chance at Bournemouth. Elevens pays 8 points a save plus 4 more for a save inside the box, and Kelleher is forecast for 3.6 saves, one of the highest workloads of the round. Over a six-round horizon he grades out at 159.9 weighted points, second only to Jordan Pickford. That is the goalkeeper version of the defensive-volume principle above.

Jordan Pickford (Everton) is the best long-horizon hold at 160.4 weighted points, with a rising profile: 43.0 in Gameweek 4, then 47, 47 and 44 across the following rounds. If you are only making one goalkeeper move for the next month and a half, it is Pickford rather than a one-week chase.

Best defenders for Gameweek 4

Virgil van Dijk (Liverpool) is the highest-projected defender in the game at 85.1 points against Fulham, and it is not close. He combines one of the round's best home fixtures with 7.1 projected defensive actions and 85 minutes of near-guaranteed pitch time. His six-round weighted score of 263.6 is comfortably the best of any defender, and the trajectory holds up: 85.1, then 70, 67, 69, 72, 63. He is a buy for this week and a keep for the next month.

Maxence Lacroix (Chelsea) at 76.7 is the pick if you want the Hull fixture from the defensive side. A 38% clean sheet share plus 8.3 defensive actions is a rare combination - most defenders get one or the other, not both. Levi Colwill (Chelsea) is the alternative from the same back line: slightly lower at 67.3, but with the highest clean sheet component of any defender in the round at 0.45 and 89 projected minutes, which is as close to nailed as the model gets.

James Hill (Bournemouth) at 73.7 is the best of the mid-table defenders - 9.3 projected defensive actions in a genuinely competitive home fixture against Brentford, and 226.0 weighted over six rounds. Luka Vuskovic (Brighton) at 71.0 is the same shape of pick with a friendlier fixture at Coventry: 6.5 defensive actions and a 30% clean sheet share.

Jan Paul van Hecke (Tottenham) deserves a mention for the horizon rather than the week - 68.4 now, 229.1 weighted, and 85 projected minutes with a 96% chance of featuring. Spurs host Everton at a 48% win probability, and van Hecke's 7.6 defensive actions travel well into the following rounds.

If you want the highest-volume defenders on the board regardless of fixture, the model has Dara O'Shea (Ipswich) at 9.5 actions and 67.0 points away at Palace, and Jaydee Canvot (Crystal Palace) at 8.8 actions and 70.9 points at home to Ipswich. Both are genuinely startable. Compare the whole position on the player picks table, which sorts by projected points for any round you choose.

Best midfielders for Gameweek 4

Cole Palmer (Chelsea) is the highest-projected midfielder of the Gameweek at 104.3 points. He is on penalties with an 0.86 share, projects 0.55 goals and 0.35 assists against Hull, and adds 3.1 defensive actions on top. In a game where a goal is worth 25 to any position and an assist 12, that combination is the best single-week ceiling available in midfield.

Bruno Fernandes (Manchester United) is the more important buy. He projects 93.8 this week in the derby, but his six-round weighted score of 368.0 is the highest of any player in the entire game - forward, defender or midfielder - and his trajectory rises rather than falls: 94, 105, 109, 100, 114, 96. He takes United's penalties at an 0.90 share, leads the round's midfielders for assists at 0.40, and still adds 5.6 defensive actions. If you make one long-term transfer in Gameweek 4, this is it.

Florian Wirtz (Liverpool) at 90.4 and Dominik Szoboszlai (Liverpool) at 76.8 are the other two premium options. Szoboszlai is the more robust of the pair: he holds Liverpool's penalties at an 0.99 share, projects 89 minutes against Wirtz's 74, and carries 255.5 weighted against Wirtz's 245.4 - because Wirtz's number falls hard after this week, from 90.4 to 63 to 58.

Marcus Tavernier (Bournemouth) at 72.3 is the best non-premium midfielder in the round, with a 99% chance of featuring, 84 projected minutes and 5.1 defensive actions - and 232.5 weighted, which is premium territory. Pascal Gross (Brighton) at 64.6 is the penalty-taking alternative, on an 0.94 share, in the Coventry fixture. Morgan Gibbs-White (Nottingham Forest) at 60.4 is the one to buy a week early: his projection jumps to 78 in Gameweek 5 and he grades 227.0 weighted.

Best forwards for Gameweek 4

Joao Pedro (Chelsea) is the highest-projected player in Elevens Gameweek 4 at 114.7 points. He projects 0.61 goals against Hull - the best single-fixture goal projection of the round outside Erling Haaland - plus a 0.34 clean sheet share and 3.2 defensive actions. If you own one player from the Chelsea match, it is him.

Erling Haaland (Manchester City) projects 88.1 in the derby, on 0.71 goals and an 0.94 penalty share. His weekly number is lower than Joao Pedro's because the fixture is much harder, but his six-round weighted score of 342.7 is second only to Bruno Fernandes, and his run improves immediately: 88, 104, 80, 122. Buying Haaland for Gameweek 4 is really buying him for Gameweek 5 onwards, and the fixture this week is good enough to start him now rather than wait.

Cody Gakpo (Liverpool) at 89.6 is the second-best one-week forward score, but read the trajectory before you commit: 90, 56, 50, 53. It is a spike driven entirely by the Fulham fixture. The same is true of Alexander Isak (Liverpool) at 87.6, and Isak carries an extra warning - only 53 projected minutes and a 0.66 starter factor, the lowest of any player in the round's top ten.

For a forward you can hold, Kevin Schade (Brentford) at 65.6 and 222.0 weighted, and Thiago Rodrigues (Brentford) at 65.5, 223.9 weighted and on penalties with an 0.89 share, are both steadier than the Liverpool pair. Bukayo Saka (Arsenal) at 65.6 has the best long-run profile of the group at 230.4 weighted, though his 60 projected minutes this week temper the ceiling. Evanilson (Bournemouth) at 65.6 has the highest availability of any forward on this list at 99%.

Hidden gems and differentials for Gameweek 4

Every manager in the game can see Joao Pedro, Palmer and van Dijk. The Gameweek is decided by the eight or nine squad slots after them, and this is where the Elevens scoring matrix creates picks that look wrong and are not.

• John Egan (Hull City, DEF) - 71.1 points. Away at the biggest favourites in the round with a 4% clean sheet chance, and still a top-five defender, because 12.0 projected defensive actions is the highest figure on the board. The clean sheet is irrelevant; the workload is the pick.
• Anton Stach (Leeds, MID) - 62.0 points. The best defensive-volume midfielder of the round at 9.2 actions, in a home fixture Leeds are favoured to win at 40%. He grades 202.1 weighted over six rounds.
• Alex Scott (Bournemouth, MID) - 61.9 points. 8.4 defensive actions with a 96% chance of featuring. The same profile as Stach from a slightly better-supported team.
• Dara O'Shea (Ipswich, DEF) - 67.0 points. 9.5 actions and 83 projected minutes, at 226.4 weighted - and his projection actually improves in Gameweeks 8 and 9, which makes him a hold rather than a one-week punt.
• Joachim Andersen (Fulham, DEF) - 63.8 points. Away at Anfield with a 4% clean sheet chance and still a top-twenty defender projection, on 6.8 defensive actions. Another fixture-proof volume pick.
• Robin Roefs (Sunderland, GK) - 41.5 points. A 15% clean sheet chance at home to Arsenal, and 3.9 projected saves - the second-highest save workload in the round. He grades 153.3 weighted, ahead of Alisson.

The common thread is that none of these picks needs its team to play well. That is the differential edge in Elevens: a defender in a bad fixture has a floor that a forward in a bad fixture does not.

Who to sell before Gameweek 4

Three groups. First, the one-week spikes - players whose Gameweek 4 number is inflated by a single fixture and collapses immediately after.

Liverpool host Fulham this week and then travel to Bournemouth before hosting Manchester City. If you are loading up on their attack for Gameweek 4, plan the exit now rather than carrying four Liverpool players into a much harder pair of fixtures.

Second, the minutes risks. Johan Manzambi (Aston Villa) projects 68.9 - a top-ten midfield number - on only 46 minutes and a 0.55 starter factor, and he is flagged with a return date on the day of the deadline itself. Dwight McNeil (Crystal Palace) projects 58.4 on a 0.36 starter factor and 28 minutes, and his number falls to 19 next week. Both are avoid rather than sell, but if you own them, they are not starters.

Third, anyone you hold from Manchester City's or Arsenal's defence purely for clean sheets. Both units sit at the bottom of the round for defensive volume - 3.9 and 4.7 actions per starting defender - which caps their floor in a scoring system that pays for actions rather than appearances. Arsenal's 48% clean sheet chance makes Raya and the back line playable this week; it is not a profile that travels.

Before you commit any of these moves, check the predicted lineups for Elevens. The minutes projections above move when team news lands, and this round has a long injury list across Arsenal, Tottenham, Newcastle and Brighton.

Does Elevens have a captain in Gameweek 4?

No. Elevens has no captain and no armband multiplier, so there is no captaincy decision to make in Gameweek 4 - and no chips either. Every point your eleven scores counts once. That changes the strategy in one useful way: because nothing gets doubled, the gap between your best starter and your eleventh-best starter matters far less than it does in FPL, and the marginal value of upgrading your worst two or three starters is correspondingly higher. Spend your attention on the bottom of the eleven, not the top.

It also means your highest-ceiling player is simply your highest-projected one. For Gameweek 4 that is Joao Pedro at 114.7, then Cole Palmer at 104.3 and Bruno Fernandes at 93.8. For the full best-eleven solve against the current projections, use the Elevens optimal teams solver - it builds the highest-scoring legal squad for any round window you pick, live, from the same numbers used in this article.

Gameweek 4 summary

Own the Chelsea match, but do not stop there. Joao Pedro, Palmer and Lacroix are the three highest-value routes into the round's best fixture, and Martinez or Colwill covers the clean sheet. Bruno Fernandes and Haaland are the two moves that pay off across the next six rounds rather than just this one. And in the squad slots after that, take the volume: Egan, Stach, Scott, O'Shea and Andersen are all top-twenty projections for their positions, from fixtures nobody else is looking at.

More rounds and analysis in the Elevens preview hub, and if you missed it, the Elevens Premier League Gameweek 3 preview covers the picks that set up this squad. Our full library of strategy articles lives in the fantasy football guides.

FAQ

Who are the best buys for Elevens Premier League Gameweek 4?

Joao Pedro at 114.7 projected points, Cole Palmer at 104.3 and Bruno Fernandes at 93.8 are the three best buys for Gameweek 4. Joao Pedro and Palmer both come from Chelsea's home fixture against Hull City, the round's biggest mismatch at a 78% win probability and 2.67 expected goals, while Bruno Fernandes carries the highest six-round weighted score in the entire game at 368.0.

Who should I captain in Elevens Gameweek 4?

Elevens has no captain - there is no armband and no points multiplier in the game, so there is no captaincy decision in Gameweek 4. Your highest-ceiling player is simply your highest-projected starter, which this round is Joao Pedro at 114.7 projected points, followed by Cole Palmer at 104.3.

Which defenders are best for Elevens Gameweek 4?

Virgil van Dijk is the top defender for Gameweek 4 at 85.1 projected points, ahead of Maxence Lacroix at 76.7 and James Hill at 73.7. Because Elevens pays 5 points per tackle and 3 each for interceptions, clearances and aerial duels, high-volume defenders in bad fixtures score well too - John Egan, Dara O'Shea and Joachim Andersen are all startable despite clean sheet chances of 20% or less.

Best differentials for Elevens Gameweek 4?

John Egan of Hull City is the standout differential at 71.1 projected points, on the round's highest defensive-action forecast of 12.0, despite travelling to Chelsea with a 4% clean sheet chance. Anton Stach at 62.0 points and 9.2 actions and Alex Scott at 61.9 points and 8.4 actions are the equivalent picks in midfield, and Robin Roefs at 41.5 points and 3.9 projected saves is the goalkeeper version.

Should I sell Alexander Isak before Gameweek 5?

Yes - start him in Gameweek 4 and sell him after. Isak projects 87.6 points at home to Fulham this week and then drops to 48 and 42 in Gameweeks 5 and 6, as Liverpool travel to Bournemouth and then host Manchester City. He also carries the lowest starter factor of any player in the round's top ten at 0.66, with just 53 projected minutes.

This preview was written by TheFantasyTool AI - verified by Nicolai @ TheFantasyTool