Elevens Premier League Gameweek 3: best buys

Elevens Premier League Gameweek 3 preview: best buys, hidden gems and who to leave out

Gameweek 3 of Elevens Premier League hands you the single most lopsided fixture of the season so far: Manchester City at home to Coventry, an 80% win probability and 2.87 projected goals. In a game with no prices, no budget and no per-club cap, that matters more here than it would anywhere else — nothing stops you loading up on the same attack. The interesting question is not whether to own Erling Haaland this Gameweek. It is which of the remaining squad spots you fill around him, because that is where positions are actually won.

Below are the picks the model backs for Gameweek 3, the under-the-radar names worth more than their reputation, and the ones whose programme falls apart the moment this round ends.

Gameweek 3 fixtures: where the points are

Gameweek 3 runs from Friday 4 September through to Sunday 6 September, opening with Liverpool away at Ipswich and closing with Arsenal - Chelsea on the Sunday. Four fixtures stand out, and the gap between the best and the rest is unusually wide.

Brighton at home to Leeds (53%, 35% clean sheet) and Aston Villa away at Hull (52%, 36%) round out the target list. At the other end, Coventry, Sunderland, Ipswich, Hull and Leeds are all priced as heavy underdogs, and Chelsea's trip to Arsenal is the worst fixture any strong side faces this week. You can check every number yourself on the Elevens market probabilities page, and the full weekend running order on the Elevens schedule.

Looking further ahead changes some of these calls. Over Gameweeks 3 to 8, Arsenal have the strongest defensive run in the league — [H]Chelsea → [A]Sunderland → [A]Brighton → [H]Leeds → [A]Nott'm Forest → [H]Everton. Newcastle's [H]Bournemouth → [A]Leeds → [H]Hull → [A]Coventry stretch is the best four-round sequence on the board. Manchester City, by contrast, have the best attacking fixture this week and then go [A]Man United in Gameweek 4 and [A]Liverpool in Gameweek 6.

Best forwards for Gameweek 3

Erling Haaland (Man City) is the pick of the round and it is not close. The model has him at 140.0 projected points against Coventry, with 1.19 projected goals and a 99% share of Manchester City's penalties. The next-best forward in the game this week sits at 82.5. Because a goal is worth 25 points regardless of position and Haaland is projected to score more than one, no other single selection moves your total as much. Over the six-round horizon he scores 407.9 on a decay-weighted basis — again, comfortably the highest in the game.

Alexander Isak (Liverpool) at 82.5 is the most reliable of the rest, with 0.46 projected goals at Ipswich and a repeat 81.5 in Gameweek 4. Thiago Rodrigues (Brentford) is the value alternative at 79.1 — 0.50 projected goals against Sunderland and an 86% penalty share. Penalty share matters in this scoring system: a won penalty is 10 points before anyone even takes it.

Bukayo Saka (Arsenal) is the one to own if you are thinking past this week. His 74.8 for Gameweek 3 is good rather than special, but his weighted six-round total of 260.9 is the third-highest among forwards — behind only Haaland and Joao Pedro, whose Gameweek 3 fixture is the reason he is a Gameweek 4 buy rather than a Gameweek 3 one. Saka's projection also rises to 78.7 by Gameweek 8 as Arsenal's fixtures soften. Antoine Semenyo (Man City) at 77.2 is the second-best route into the Coventry game, with 0.37 projected goals and 0.20 projected assists.

Best midfielders for Gameweek 3

Bruno Fernandes (Man United) is the standout hold of the entire game. He projects 91.5 for Gameweek 3 at Everton, takes 99% of United's penalties, and unlike almost everyone else his numbers climb across the horizon: 91.5 → 96.2 → 107.1 → 111.4 → 102.1 → 114.1. That is a weighted total of 363.5, and it means he is the rare pick you never have to revisit. His 0.27 projected goals and 0.33 projected assists are both top-five for a midfielder this week.

Dominik Szoboszlai (Liverpool) is next at 83.7, also on penalties (91%), with 0.25 goals and 0.27 assists projected at Ipswich. Declan Rice (Arsenal) is the steadiest option in the position: 62.5 this week, and a projection that never drops below 56 across six rounds. He also contributes 7.28 projected defensive actions, which in this game is worth real points on top of his attacking return.

Pascal Gross (Brighton) at 65.7 is the overlooked one. He has a 95% penalty share at home to Leeds, 0.17 projected goals and 0.15 assists, and a nailed role at 86 projected minutes. If you want a midfielder from a strong home fixture who is not a Liverpool or City name, he is the pick.

Best defenders for Gameweek 3

Defenders are the most misunderstood position in Elevens, and getting them right is the fastest way to gain ground. A clean sheet is only 15 points, but a tackle is 5, and interceptions, clearances, aerial duels and ground duels are 3 each. A busy defender in a losing team can out-score a spare centre-half in a comfortable win, and a goal is worth the same 25 it is for a striker.

Virgil van Dijk (Liverpool) is the top pick at 78.8, combining a 34% clean sheet chance at Ipswich with 7.62 projected defensive actions and a weighted 265.9 over six rounds. Josko Gvardiol (Man City) is the fixture play at 77.1 — the 44% clean sheet chance against Coventry is the best in the round, and he adds 0.14 projected goals from set pieces and overlaps.

Nathan Collins (Brentford) at 71.9 is the best combination of the two routes: a 35% clean sheet chance against Sunderland plus 8.53 projected defensive actions. Gabriel (Arsenal) at 67.8 is the six-round hold, with a weighted 247.1 and a Gameweek 6 spike to 74.0 at home to Leeds.

Goalkeepers for Gameweek 3

The counter-intuitive part of Elevens goalkeeping is that a save is worth 8 points, and 4 more if it is inside the box, while a clean sheet is only 15. Three saves therefore beat a shut-out. That is why the model does not simply rank keepers by clean sheet odds.

Caoimhin Kelleher (Brentford) is the top-projected keeper at 46.6, and he is the best of both worlds: a 41% clean sheet chance against Sunderland and 2.71 projected saves. Jordan Pickford (Everton) is the pure-volume pick at 43.9 despite hosting Manchester United, because he projects 3.33 saves — worth roughly 27 points on their own, before any clean sheet. David Raya (Arsenal) at 43.0 is the pick if you want the best fixture run behind him rather than the best single week.

Gianluigi Donnarumma has the highest clean sheet probability in the round at 47%, but Manchester City concede so few shots that the save points dry up, which is why he lands below the busier keepers at 42.1. He also shares the position with James Trafford in our pool, so if he does not start, Kelleher is the safer route to the same points.

Hidden gems and differentials for Gameweek 3

These are the names that decide leagues, because everyone will have the Manchester City attack. Each one is driven by defensive-action volume rather than clean sheets, which is why they are consistently undervalued.

• James Hill (Bournemouth) — 71.7 this week and a weighted 256.5, the second-highest of any defender in the game, despite travelling to Newcastle with only a 17% clean sheet chance. He projects 10.55 defensive actions, and his floor barely moves across six rounds: 71.7 / 74.3 / 70.1 / 67.4 / 75.0 / 65.4. A genuinely fixture-proof pick.
• John Egan (Hull) — 67.2 on a 22% win probability. He has the highest projected defensive volume of any player in the league at 13.36 actions, which is enough to overwhelm a 13% clean sheet chance. The clearest example of why fixture difficulty alone is a bad filter in this game.
• Joachim Andersen (Fulham) — 67.7 at home to Crystal Palace, 9.29 projected defensive actions and a weighted 239.2. A strong home fixture attached to a high floor.
• James Tarkowski (Everton) — 65.2 now, with 9.63 projected actions and a programme that improves sharply: 71.8 in Gameweek 5 and 71.2 in Gameweek 6.
• Malick Thiaw (Newcastle) — 63.8 with 8.01 projected actions, and he sits inside the best four-round fixture run in the league, spiking to 72 in Gameweek 5 at home to Hull.
• Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall (Everton) — the midfield differential at 58.4, with a secure role (85 projected minutes) and Gameweek 5 and 6 projections of 65.8 and 64.0.

You can sort the whole player pool the same way on the Elevens player picks page, and the Elevens penalty takers page shows the full penalty-share list that drives so much of the forward and midfield upside.

Who to leave out of your Gameweek 3 squad

With no captain to protect and no budget to balance, the only real cost in Elevens is an occupied squad spot. These are the players whose Gameweek 3 number flatters them.

• Florian Wirtz (Liverpool) — 77.4 looks like a top-five midfield pick, but it rests on only 58 projected minutes and a 0.65 starter factor, and his projection collapses immediately afterwards: 68 in Gameweek 4, then 50, 46, 49, 51. A one-week punt at best, and a volatile one.
• Rayan Cherki (Man City) — the biggest rotation risk in the best fixture. 64.2 projected, but on 48 minutes and a 0.56 starter factor. If you want a City midfielder, Elliot Anderson at 67.9 on 64 minutes is the more secure route into the same game.
• Phil Foden (Man City) — 61.0 on 55 projected minutes, and it falls to 44.2 in Gameweek 4 once City go to Old Trafford.
• Marc Guehi and Ruben Dias (Man City) — both fine this week at 70.6 and 67.1 off the Coventry clean sheet, but both drop away in Gameweek 4, to 53.6 and 51.7 respectively. Treat them as one-week defensive picks, not holds.
• Chelsea's attack — a 19% win probability at Arsenal is the worst spot any good team is in this week.

One name deserves the opposite advice. Joao Pedro (Chelsea) projects only 55.4 for Gameweek 3 because of that Arsenal trip — but 111.0 in Gameweek 4, the single highest one-round forward projection in the game outside Haaland. His weighted six-round total of 276.3 is second among forwards. Do not bring him in now; bring him in for Gameweek 4.

Also note that Rodri and Tijjani Reijnders (Man City), Cristian Romero, Guglielmo Vicario and Djed Spence (Tottenham), Curtis Jones (Liverpool) and Trevoh Chalobah (Chelsea) are all currently unavailable in the Elevens pool, so plan around them. Confirmed and projected line-ups are tracked on the Elevens predicted line-ups page.

The Gameweek 3 shortlist

For the best legal 15 solved live against these numbers, use the Elevens optimal teams solver — it applies the 15-player squad and position limits for you. Earlier rounds and the rest of our coverage sit in the Elevens preview hub, and you can look back at how the season opened in our Elevens Premier League Gameweek 1 preview.

FAQ

Who should I pick in Elevens Premier League Gameweek 3?

Erling Haaland is the clearest pick of Gameweek 3 at 140.0 projected points, with Manchester City an 80% favourite at home to Coventry and Haaland projected for 1.19 goals plus a 99% penalty share. Bruno Fernandes (91.5) and Dominik Szoboszlai (83.7) are the best midfielders, Virgil van Dijk (78.8) the best defender, and Caoimhin Kelleher (46.6) the best goalkeeper.

Is there a captain in Elevens Premier League?

No — Elevens has no captain, so there is no armband decision to make and no doubling of any player's score. Your Gameweek 3 total is simply the points your eleven starters return, which is why picking the highest-projecting eleven matters more here than in games where one captaincy call can swing a week.

Which defenders are best for Elevens Gameweek 3?

Virgil van Dijk (78.8) and Josko Gvardiol (77.1) lead on projection, with Gvardiol carrying the round's best clean sheet chance at 44% against Coventry. But because tackles, interceptions and clearances are worth 3 to 5 points each, high-volume defenders in poor fixtures also score well — James Hill (71.7, 10.55 projected defensive actions) and John Egan (67.2, 13.36 actions) are the best examples this week.

Should I pick Joao Pedro before Elevens Gameweek 3?

No, wait one round. Joao Pedro projects just 55.4 for Gameweek 3 because Chelsea travel to Arsenal as 19% underdogs, but he jumps to 111.0 in Gameweek 4 — the highest single-round forward projection in the game apart from Haaland. Bringing him in for Gameweek 4 rather than Gameweek 3 captures almost all of his value.

Best differentials for Elevens Premier League Gameweek 3?

James Hill of Bournemouth is the standout differential, projecting 71.7 for Gameweek 3 and 256.5 across six rounds despite a 17% clean sheet chance at Newcastle, because his 10.55 projected defensive actions do not depend on the fixture. John Egan (67.2), Joachim Andersen (67.7), James Tarkowski (65.2) and Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall (58.4) are the other names that score without needing a clean sheet.

This preview was written by TheFantasyTool AI - verified by Nicolai @ TheFantasyTool