Elevens Premier League Gameweek 3: best buys

Elevens Premier League Gameweek 3: best buys, captain picks and differentials

Elevens Premier League Gameweek 3 is the first round of the season where the fixture spread does most of the work for you. Manchester City host Coventry City with an 80% win probability and 2.87 projected goals - the single best team fixture on the card - while Chelsea travel to Arsenal as 19% underdogs. The deadline is Friday 4 September at 18:30, before Liverpool kick off at Ipswich Town at 21:00.

The obvious names are obvious. Everyone will have Erling Haaland. What decides your Gameweek 3 is the six or seven squad slots after him, and this round the model is pointing at a very specific type of player: defenders and goalkeepers who accumulate volume, not just clean sheets.

The Gameweek 3 fixtures that matter

Four matches carry the round. The table below gives one row per team, with the model's win probability, projected goals and clean-sheet chance.

Manchester City - Coventry City is the round's outlier. City averaged 1.88 xG per game last season and kept 16 clean sheets; Coventry are newly promoted and are given a 6% chance of shutting City out. Brentford - Sunderland is the quieter one worth acting on: Brentford's 41% clean-sheet chance is the second-best of the round, and Sunderland managed just 1.02 xG per game last season with a net non-penalty xG difference of -0.43.

Elevens has no player prices, so there is no budget to balance - every slot is a straight comparison of projected points. That makes the Elevens player picks page the fastest way to sanity-check anything below against the live numbers, and the Elevens schedule the place to see how the run develops past Gameweek 3.

Why Elevens defenders score without clean sheets

This is the point most managers miss in their first season of the game. Elevens rewards defensive volume heavily - clearances, blocks, interceptions and tackles - so a centre-back in a leaky team can out-score a centre-back behind a strong defence. Three examples from Gameweek 3:

• John Egan (HUL) - 13.36 projected defensive actions, but only a 13% clean-sheet chance at home to Aston Villa. He still projects 67.2.
• James Hill (BOU) - 10.55 projected defensive actions away at Newcastle United, a 17% clean-sheet chance, and 71.7 projected points.
• Gabriel (ARS) - 6.85 projected defensive actions with a 36% clean-sheet chance, and 67.8 projected points.

Gabriel and Egan land within half a point of each other from completely opposite routes. That is the game telling you not to chase clean sheets alone.

Best goalkeepers for Gameweek 3

Caoimhin Kelleher (BRE) is the top-projected keeper at 46.6, and he is the cleanest expression of the volume principle: 2.71 projected saves plus a 40% clean-sheet chance at home to Sunderland. He played 3,330 minutes in the Premier League last season, so rotation is not a live concern. His six-round weighted score of 161.5 is the best in the position.

Jordan Pickford (EVE) at 43.9 is the pure save-volume play - 3.33 projected saves against Manchester United, with only a 21% clean-sheet chance. He scores by being busy. David Raya (ARS) at 43.0 is the multi-week option rather than the one-week one: Arsenal conceded just 0.75 xG per game last season and kept 19 clean sheets, and their clean-sheet probability climbs to 52% in Gameweek 4, 52% again in Gameweek 6 and 53% in Gameweek 8.

Worth noting what the model does not like: Gianluigi Donnarumma has the round's highest clean-sheet chance at 46%, but only 1.96 projected saves, and lands at 42.1 - behind Kelleher, Pickford and Raya. In Elevens, the keeper behind the best defence is rarely the best keeper.

Best defenders for Gameweek 3

Virgil van Dijk (LIV) tops the position at 78.8 and has the best six-round weighted score of any defender at 265.9. He played all 3,420 available Premier League minutes last season - there is no rotation risk to price in - and combines 7.62 projected defensive actions with a 31% clean-sheet chance at Ipswich Town.

Josko Gvardiol (MCI) is the highest-ceiling defender of the round at 77.1, with the strongest attacking return of any centre-back on the card (0.14 projected goals, 0.10 projected assists) behind a 47% clean sheet. Be aware his run softens immediately: 77.1 in Gameweek 3, then 61.6 away at Manchester United and 71.4 at home to Sunderland.

Gabriel (ARS) at 67.8 is the one to hold rather than rent. His trajectory reads 67.8 to 70.4 to 64.9 to 74.0 to 65.5 to 69.3, for a weighted score of 247.1 - the flattest, most reliable line among the premium defenders, because Arsenal's fixture run is the best defensive schedule in the league over the next six rounds.

Nathan Collins (BRE) at 71.9 is the fixture-driven buy: 8.53 projected defensive actions and a 35% clean sheet against a Sunderland attack the model rates at 0.90 goals. Luka Vuskovic (BHA) at 72.7 is the aggressive alternative at home to Leeds United, though his 83 projected minutes flag a small substitution risk.

Best midfielders for Gameweek 3

Bruno Fernandes (MUN) at 91.5 is the most important name in this article. He is not the best Gameweek 3 pick - Haaland is - but his six-round weighted score of 363.5 is the highest of any player in the game, forwards included, and his line climbs rather than fades: 91.5, 96.2, 107.1, 111.4, 102.1, 114.1. He takes United's penalties with a 0.99 penalty share, and last season he produced 9 goals and 21 assists from 10.80 xG and 12.10 xA, an xGI90 of 0.67. If you buy one midfielder and never touch the slot again, it is this one.

Dominik Szoboszlai (LIV) at 83.7 is the second-best midfielder for the round and holds a 0.91 penalty share at a side with 2.08 projected goals at Ipswich. He is a genuine captaincy fallback rather than just a squad filler.

Florian Wirtz (LIV) projects 77.4, which looks like a buy until you read the minutes: 58 projected, a starter factor of 0.65. He is a high-variance pick, and the model already has him falling to 50.1 by Gameweek 5. If you want Liverpool midfield exposure with a floor, Szoboszlai is the safer route.

Declan Rice (ARS) at 62.5 with a weighted 220.3 is the boring, correct hold - the same Arsenal fixture run that lifts Gabriel and Raya lifts him. Among the less obvious options, Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall (EVE) at 58.4 stands out on the horizon rather than the round: 58.4 to 53.7 to 65.8 to 64.0, for a weighted 208.6, on 85 projected minutes.

Best forwards for Gameweek 3

Erling Haaland (MCI) projects 140.0. The next-best forward is 57.5 points behind him. He carries 1.19 projected goals, a 0.99 penalty share, and last season returned 27 goals and 8 assists from 25.47 xG - an xGI90 of 0.86 across 2,958 minutes. Against a Coventry side with a 6% clean-sheet chance, this is as close to a locked pick as the season produces.

Alexander Isak (LIV) at 82.5 is the second forward, with 0.46 projected goals at Ipswich and an 82.5 then 81.5 back-to-back that carries into Gameweek 4 against Fulham. The caveat is real: he played only 703 Premier League minutes last season, and the model gives him 80 projected minutes with a starter factor of 0.84.

Thiago Rodrigues (BRE) at 79.1 is the pick this preview would push hardest after Haaland. He scored 22 Premier League goals last season from 20.57 xG - so the output was earned, not a hot streak - at an xGI90 of 0.62 across 3,284 minutes, and he takes Brentford's penalties with an 0.86 share. At home to the division's weakest projected attack, he has 0.50 projected goals, the second-highest figure of the round.

Bukayo Saka (ARS) at 74.8 is the horizon buy among forwards, with a weighted 260.9 - second only to Haaland - and a line that never dips below 67.6 across six rounds. Antoine Semenyo (MCI) at 77.2 is the pure Gameweek 3 rental: excellent this week, then 51.3 next.

Gameweek 3 captain picks

Captain Erling Haaland. At 140.0 projected points against a promoted side with a 6% clean-sheet chance, there is no argument to construct. He projects 53% higher than the second-best captaincy option in the game, and he takes the penalties.

1. Erling Haaland (MCI) - 140.0. Home to Coventry City, 80% win probability, 2.87 projected team goals.
2. Bruno Fernandes (MUN) - 91.5. The differential armband, away at Everton. Lower ceiling this week, but he is the best captain option in Gameweeks 5, 6 and 8 as well.
3. Dominik Szoboszlai (LIV) - 83.7. Penalties for a side projected to score 2.08 at Ipswich.

Think of the armband across the run rather than one week. Haaland captains Gameweek 3 and Gameweek 7 (home to Ipswich Town, 78% win probability). Bruno Fernandes is the model's top captain from Gameweek 5 onward. Owning both means you never have to take a hit to reach the week's best armband. You can compare the two in any future round on the Elevens player picks page, which is filterable by round.

Hidden gems and differentials for Gameweek 3

These are the picks that separate you from the field once everyone has the top three names.

• James Hill (BOU) - 71.7 this round and a weighted 256.5, the second-best six-round score of any defender behind van Dijk. He is nobody's first thought: he produced 0.09 xGI90 last season, which is to say he does nothing going forward. He does not need to. 10.55 projected defensive actions, 89 projected minutes and a starter factor of 0.97 do the scoring for him, and his line is remarkably flat at 71.7, 74.3, 70.1, 67.4, 75.0, 65.4.
• John Egan (HUL) - 67.2 with the highest projected defensive-action count in the game at 13.36. A promoted side at home to Aston Villa is not a fixture anyone wants, and that is exactly why he is available.
• Kevin Schade (BRE) - 65.0, and the best regression case on the card: 8 goals from 12.16 xG last season means he underperformed his chances by more than four goals across 2,757 minutes. Same fixture as Thiago Rodrigues, far less attention.
• Robin Roefs (SUN) - 42.1 despite a 14% clean-sheet chance, on 3.94 projected saves. If you want a keeper nobody else has, a busy one in a struggling team is how Elevens pays you.
• Marcus Tavernier (BOU) - 62.4 on 0.22 projected goals, backed by 9.06 xG and 4.60 xA last season for an xGI90 of 0.45. A mid-table midfielder in a losing fixture who still projects inside the top ten of his position.

Before committing to any of these, confirm the starting XI expectation on the Elevens predicted lineups page - Egan and Hill in particular are only worth owning if they play 80-plus minutes.

Who to avoid buying before Gameweek 3

Chelsea assets, for this week only. Cole Palmer projects 56.7 and Joao Pedro 55.4 away at Arsenal, where Chelsea are given a 19% win probability and 0.97 projected goals against the league's best defence - Arsenal conceded 0.75 xG per game and kept 19 clean sheets last season. Both are strong players in a genuinely bad fixture.

Viktor Gyokeres (ARS) is the trap of the round. He is Arsenal's designated penalty taker, which reads like a reason to own him, but the model gives him 21 projected minutes and a starter factor of 0.44, for 28.0 projected points. Penalty duty is worth nothing from the bench. The same applies to Hugo Ekitike at Liverpool, currently on zero projected minutes.

Manchester City defenders past this round. Gvardiol, Ruben Dias and Marc Guehi are all excellent Gameweek 3 picks and all fall away sharply afterwards - Dias goes 67.1 to 51.7, Guehi 70.6 to 53.6 - because City travel to Manchester United in Gameweek 4 and Liverpool in Gameweek 6. Own them now, but plan the exit.

Coventry City and Ipswich Town players across the board. Coventry are a 7% chance at the Etihad with 0.76 projected goals; Ipswich are 18% at home to Liverpool. There is no pick worth making from either side this week.

The Gameweek 4 move to plan now

Chelsea are the whole story of the next round. They go from 19% at Arsenal to 76% at home to Hull City with 2.63 projected goals - the biggest single-round swing on the board. Joao Pedro jumps from 55.4 to 111.0 and Cole Palmer from 56.7 to 100.0. If you have a free transfer you do not need this week, that is where it belongs.

Arsenal's defence is the other Gameweek 4 target: away at Sunderland with a 52% clean-sheet chance, the highest of that round. Gabriel rises to 70.4 and Raya to 44.1. For the exact optimal eleven for any round under Elevens' formation rules, the site solves it live on the Elevens optimal teams page, and the bookmaker numbers behind every probability quoted here are on the Elevens market probabilities page.

More rounds of analysis are collected in the Elevens preview hub. Gameweek 2 was not previewed, so the earlier reference point in this series is the Elevens Premier League Round 1 preview, which covers the squad-build principles that still apply. If you are new to the game, our fantasy football guides explain how the projected-points model is built.

FAQ

Who should I captain in Elevens Gameweek 3?

Captain Erling Haaland. He projects 140.0 points at home to Coventry City, 57.5 clear of the next-best forward, with Manchester City given an 80% win probability and 2.87 projected goals. He also takes the penalties, with a 0.99 penalty share. Bruno Fernandes (91.5) is the differential alternative if you already own Haaland and want to gamble on rank.

Which defenders are best for Elevens Gameweek 3?

Virgil van Dijk is the top-projected defender at 78.8, with the best six-round weighted score in the position at 265.9 and no rotation risk - he played all 3,420 Premier League minutes last season. Josko Gvardiol (77.1) has the higher one-week ceiling behind a 47% clean sheet, and Gabriel (67.8) is the best hold because Arsenal's clean-sheet probability stays at or above 47% in four of the next six rounds.

Should I sell Cole Palmer before Elevens Gameweek 3?

No - hold him through it. Palmer projects only 56.7 away at Arsenal, where Chelsea are 19% underdogs, but he jumps to 100.0 in Gameweek 4 at home to Hull City. Selling before a fixture that good, and then having to buy back in, costs more than the one weak round does.

Who are the best differentials for Elevens Gameweek 3?

James Hill of Bournemouth is the standout at 71.7, with 10.55 projected defensive actions and the second-best six-round weighted score of any defender (256.5) despite contributing nothing in attack. John Egan (67.2) leads the entire game in projected defensive actions at 13.36, and Kevin Schade (65.0) underperformed his expected goals by more than four last season, which the model expects to correct.

Which goalkeeper should I pick for Elevens Gameweek 3?

Caoimhin Kelleher at 46.6 is the top goalkeeper for the round - 2.71 projected saves plus a 40% clean-sheet chance at home to Sunderland, and he is an ever-present. Jordan Pickford (43.9) is the pure save-volume alternative on 3.33 projected saves, and David Raya (43.0) is the better pick if you want to set the position and forget it for six rounds.

This preview was written by TheFantasyTool AI - verified by Nicolai @ TheFantasyTool