Elevens Gameweek 11: captain picks and best buys
Elevens Premier League Gameweek 11 preview: best buys, captain picks and differentials
Elevens Premier League Gameweek 11 runs from Saturday 21 November to Monday 23 November, with Liverpool - Manchester United and Newcastle - Arsenal as the big matches after the international break. The transfer you make this week should be judged on Gameweeks 11, 12 and 13 together, and three things decide it. First, Erling Haaland is the captain again, but his Gameweek 12 trip to Arsenal is the week to plan around. Second, Bruno Fernandes has the best three-gameweek projection of any player in the game, and his run only gets better after Anfield. Third, several Arsenal and Chelsea squad players lose their minutes this week, so the sells are about roles, not fixtures. All ten fixtures are set for every gameweek from 11 to 16, so there are no blanks to plan around. Every number below is the model's current projection, the same one shown on the Elevens player picks page.
Gameweek 11 programs: whose next three gameweeks are worth owning
Liverpool's [H]MUN → [A]EVE → [H]SUN is the best three-gameweek attacking run in the game at 5.55 expected goals, with 1.02 expected clean sheets on top. Manchester United at home is the hardest of the three, so the case for Liverpool players is the two weeks behind it, not this one. Manchester City ([H]FUL → [A]ARS → [H]LEE, 5.51) are a whisker behind and have the best single fixture of the round: a 68% win probability and 2.36 expected goals against Fulham, both the highest of Gameweek 11. The Arsenal away game in Gameweek 12 is the one dip, and Leeds at home brings the run straight back up.
Brighton ([A]HUL → [H]NEW → [A]BOU, 5.48) and Chelsea ([H]LEE → [A]NFO → [H]CRY, 5.45) complete a tight top four for goals. Brighton also carry the best clean sheet chance of the round at Hull (40%), which is a big part of why Vuskovic leads the defenders this week. Arsenal ([A]NEW → [H]MCI → [A]BRE) have the strongest defensive program, with 1.15 expected clean sheets, the only team above Tottenham's 1.05. Tottenham ([H]IPS → [A]SUN → [H]FUL) are the other team to own for one big week: a 65% win probability and 2.18 expected goals against Ipswich, then two more winnable games.
Manchester United are the odd one out. Their 4.62 expected goals rank ninth and their 0.61 expected clean sheets are near the bottom, so their attack is worth owning and their defence is not, and [H]COV in Gameweek 14 extends the run for their attackers. At the bottom, Hull ([H]BHA → [A]CRY → [H]NFO) have the weakest attacking run (2.93 expected goals), Newcastle the weakest defensive one (0.47 expected clean sheets), and Sunderland, Fulham and Everton are not far above them. The full fixture list is on the Elevens schedule, and the bookmaker-derived numbers behind this table are on market probabilities.
| Team | Gameweek 11 | Win probability | Expected goals | Clean sheet | Program (GW11-13) | 3-round xG | 3-round CS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LIV | [H]MUN | 52% | 1.91 | 29% | [H]MUN → [A]EVE → [H]SUN | 5.55 | 1.02 |
| MCI | [H]FUL | 68% | 2.36 | 38% | [H]FUL → [A]ARS → [H]LEE | 5.51 | 0.97 |
| BHA | [A]HUL | 63% | 2.05 | 40% | [A]HUL → [H]NEW → [A]BOU | 5.48 | 0.92 |
| CHE | [H]LEE | 53% | 1.78 | 33% | [H]LEE → [A]NFO → [H]CRY | 5.45 | 0.94 |
| ARS | [A]NEW | 60% | 1.98 | 38% | [A]NEW → [H]MCI → [A]BRE | 5.22 | 1.15 |
| TOT | [H]IPS | 65% | 2.18 | 38% | [H]IPS → [A]SUN → [H]FUL | 5.05 | 1.05 |
| AVL | [H]SUN | 55% | 1.84 | 35% | [H]SUN → [A]IPS → [H]EVE | 4.95 | 0.96 |
| BOU | [H]NFO | 48% | 1.65 | 31% | [H]NFO → [A]FUL → [H]BHA | 4.67 | 0.80 |
| MUN | [A]LIV | 24% | 1.24 | 15% | [A]LIV → [H]BRE → [A]NEW | 4.62 | 0.61 |
| CRY | [A]COV | 34% | 1.38 | 22% | [A]COV → [H]HUL → [A]CHE | 4.27 | 0.69 |
| NFO | [A]BOU | 26% | 1.17 | 19% | [A]BOU → [H]CHE → [A]HUL | 4.09 | 0.80 |
| BRE | [H]EVE | 50% | 1.72 | 32% | [H]EVE → [A]MUN → [H]ARS | 3.99 | 0.69 |
| COV | [H]CRY | 40% | 1.52 | 25% | [H]CRY → [A]LEE → [H]IPS | 3.89 | 0.70 |
| LEE | [A]CHE | 22% | 1.09 | 17% | [A]CHE → [H]COV → [A]MCI | 3.78 | 0.68 |
| NEW | [H]ARS | 17% | 0.96 | 14% | [H]ARS → [A]BHA → [H]MUN | 3.71 | 0.47 |
| IPS | [A]TOT | 15% | 0.95 | 11% | [A]TOT → [H]AVL → [A]COV | 3.48 | 0.55 |
| EVE | [A]BRE | 24% | 1.14 | 18% | [A]BRE → [H]LIV → [A]AVL | 3.43 | 0.61 |
| FUL | [A]MCI | 13% | 0.96 | 10% | [A]MCI → [H]BOU → [A]TOT | 3.40 | 0.54 |
| SUN | [A]AVL | 20% | 1.04 | 16% | [A]AVL → [H]TOT → [A]LIV | 3.05 | 0.55 |
| HUL | [H]BHA | 15% | 0.93 | 13% | [H]BHA → [A]CRY → [H]NFO | 2.93 | 0.50 |
Best goalkeepers for Gameweek 11
Zion Suzuki (AVL) is the goalkeeper to own, and it is not close. His program is [H]SUN → [A]IPS → [H]EVE, and he projects 47.7 → 46.1 → 45.6 for 139.4 over the three, the highest of any keeper both this week and over the window. Aston Villa have a 35% clean sheet chance against Sunderland, and the trip to Ipswich is the kind of game Villa should control too.
Caoimhin Kelleher (BRE) is second this week at 45.4 with [H]EVE → [A]MUN → [H]ARS. That program gets harder each week (45.4 → 43.3 → 41.5), so he is a good one-keeper answer now and a weaker one by Gameweek 13. Jordan Pickford (EVE) is the steady alternative: [A]BRE → [H]LIV → [A]AVL looks tough, yet his projection barely moves (43.3 → 43.5 → 43.8), and 130.6 over three ranks second among keepers. For a clean-sheet keeper, David Raya (ARS) sits behind the best defensive program in the game, [A]NEW → [H]MCI → [A]BRE, at 43.6 → 41.8 → 42.4.
Best defenders for Gameweek 11
Luka Vuskovic (BHA) is the top defender again, this week and over the window. Brighton's [A]HUL → [H]NEW → [A]BOU gives him 82.3 → 78.2 → 70.8, or 231.3 over three, and his 82.3 is the fourth-highest projection of any player this week. He adds a goal threat of 0.12 projected goals per game to Brighton's 40% clean sheet chance at Hull. He is a hold for the whole window.
Virgil van Dijk (LIV) is the best long hold behind him: [H]MUN → [A]EVE → [H]SUN gives 73.4 → 70.5 → 74.7, 218.6 over three, and the trajectory is flat, so you can buy him and stop thinking about the position. James Hill (BOU) is the third name over the window with [H]NFO → [A]FUL → [H]BHA (72.7 → 69.8 → 68.3, 210.8), and Bournemouth's [H]HUL in Gameweek 14 lifts him to 76.4. Antonio Silva and Adrien Truffert are the Bournemouth alternatives on the same program.
This is where this week's ranking and the three-week ranking disagree. Jan Paul van Hecke (TOT) out-scores Van Dijk this week (74.9 against 73.4) thanks to Ipswich, and [H]IPS → [A]SUN → [H]FUL keeps him at 208.4 over three. But Van Dijk has 10.2 more points over the window and Tottenham host Arsenal in Gameweek 14, when Van Hecke drops to 57.8. If you are buying one defender and keeping him, buy Van Dijk. Pedro Porro (TOT) is a pure one-week play: 72.0 against Ipswich, then 56.0 → 55.8 on fewer projected minutes. Gabriel (ARS) is the Arsenal defender to own for their clean-sheet program, at 69.2 → 64.5 → 63.0 with [A]NEW → [H]MCI → [A]BRE.
Two less obvious defenders have rising programs. Neco Williams (NFO) goes [A]BOU → [H]CHE → [A]HUL for 57.9 → 63.5 → 68.0, so he gets better each week, and in Gameweek 13 Forest face Hull, the weakest attacking program in the game. Tarik Muharemovic (LEE) is a two-week play built on Gameweek 12: [A]CHE → [H]COV → [A]MCI gives 62.2 → 72.4 → 58.8, and [H]IPS in Gameweek 14 brings him back to 70.4.
Best midfielders for Gameweek 11
Bruno Fernandes (MUN) is the buy of the window. His program is [A]LIV → [H]BRE → [A]NEW, he projects 76.4 → 92.0 → 89.2, and his 257.6 over three is the highest of any player in the game, Haaland included. [H]COV follows in Gameweek 14 at 106.6. He is projected for 89 minutes in every one of those games and is Manchester United's penalty taker. Why now: the program turns after this week, and Anfield, the weakest of his next four fixtures, still projects as the seventh-best score of the round. Buying in Gameweek 12 instead only saves you the Liverpool week.
Cole Palmer (CHE) is the other premium midfielder: [H]LEE → [A]NFO → [H]CRY gives 79.7 → 66.6 → 87.6, 233.9 over three, and he is Chelsea's penalty taker. The Forest trip is the soft week in the middle, and Crystal Palace at home in Gameweek 13 is his best projection of the window. Morgan Rogers (CHE) on the same program (68.5 → 66.0 → 74.6, 209.1) is the second Chelsea option, and Florian Wirtz (LIV) follows Liverpool's [H]MUN → [A]EVE → [H]SUN for 71.0 → 64.6 → 74.4, 210.0 over three.
Pascal Gross is the trap in this position. He is sixth for Gameweek 11 at 76.8 at Hull, but Brighton's run turns on him: 65.1 against Newcastle and 55.4 at Bournemouth, on fewer projected minutes. Over the window he finishes behind Wirtz and Rogers. Treat him as a one-week pick or leave him.
The less obvious midfield pick is Morgan Gibbs-White (NFO). [A]BOU → [H]CHE → [A]HUL gives a rising 57.1 → 61.8 → 69.3, 188.2 over three, and he is Forest's penalty taker. He pairs naturally with Neco Williams if you want one Forest block for the Hull week.
Best forwards for Gameweek 11
Erling Haaland (MCI) is the highest projection of the round at 104.5 against Fulham, with 0.83 projected goals in that one game. His program is [H]FUL → [A]ARS → [H]LEE, and the shape is 104.5 → 53.6 → 97.5: one big dip at the Emirates between two of the best fixtures in the game. Over six gameweeks his decay-weighted total of 324.6 is the highest of any player, so the Arsenal week is a captaincy problem, not a reason to sell.
Mohammed Kudus (TOT) is the second forward this week at 89.1 against Ipswich, and Tottenham's penalty taker. [H]IPS → [A]SUN → [H]FUL holds him at 64.1 and 66.3 after that, 219.5 over three, before [H]ARS in Gameweek 14 drops him to 47.2. That makes him a three-week hold with a clear exit. Jérémy Doku (MCI) rides City's program at 85.2 → 53.3 → 69.9, but his projected minutes slip from 76 to 65 across the window, so Kudus is the better second forward.
Bryan Mbeumo (MUN) is the forward version of the Bruno Fernandes case. [A]LIV → [H]BRE → [A]NEW gives 59.5 → 73.9 → 68.0, then 84.7 against Coventry in Gameweek 14, and he is projected for 80-84 minutes in each game. He ranks behind Kudus and Doku this week but is the one that rises. Alexander Isak (LIV) is a solid hold on Liverpool's program at 69.5 → 58.0 → 70.4. Two forwards are one-week plays only: Thiago Rodrigues (BRE) projects 74.8 against Everton and then falls to 55.8 and 43.1, and Dominic Calvert-Lewin (LEE) is a Gameweek 12 pick at 74.7 against Coventry, between 54.7 and 49.3.
Captain picks for Elevens Gameweek 11
The captain's points are doubled in Elevens, and Erling Haaland (MCI) is the captain at 104.5 against Fulham, 15.4 points clear of the next player. Mohammed Kudus (TOT, 89.1 against Ipswich) is the alternative, and Jérémy Doku (MCI, 85.2) is third. Luka Vuskovic (82.3) is the highest-projected non-forward.
Plan the next two weeks as well, because the captaincy changes hands. In Gameweek 12, with Haaland at Arsenal, Bruno Fernandes leads the round at 92.0 against Brentford, ahead of Vuskovic (78.2) and Calvert-Lewin (74.7). In Gameweek 13 it is Haaland again (97.5 against Leeds), ahead of Bruno Fernandes (89.2) and Palmer (87.6). That is the case for owning both: Haaland for Gameweeks 11 and 13, Bruno Fernandes for Gameweek 12, which is why Bruno is the transfer to make now. Compare the full squads on the Elevens optimal teams page.
Who to sell before Gameweek 11
Noni Madueke (ARS) is the clearest sale. He is projected for just 55 minutes this week and 49.7 points, then 43.1 → 39.8 on similar minutes. Arsenal's [A]NEW → [H]MCI → [A]BRE is a fine defensive program, and the fixtures are not the problem; his share of them is. Why now: the minutes drop starts this week, and nothing inside the window brings them back. Kudus or Mbeumo are the better forwards to bring in.
Jurrien Timber (ARS) goes for the same reason. He is projected for 51 minutes this week and 35.7 points, then 28.3 and 27.6. Why now: Arsenal's defence is the one to own, but through Gabriel or Raya, who play the minutes. Estevao (CHE) is the Chelsea version: Joao Pedro is due back for Gameweek 11, and Estevao drops to 34 projected minutes and 35.7 points, then 22.0 → 36.7. Chelsea's [H]LEE is a good fixture, which is why Palmer, Rogers or Pedro Neto (77 projected minutes, 59.1 → 57.2 → 66.9) are the ways to own it.
Mathys Tel (TOT) is a sell, but you can wait a round on this one. Tottenham host Ipswich this week with a 65% win probability and he projects 69.2, a respectable return. After that he falls to 48.9 and 49.9 and then 33.8 against Arsenal in Gameweek 14, so the moment to move him is the Gameweek 12 deadline, after the Ipswich game, not before it. Check the projected starters on the Elevens predicted lineups page before you decide on any of these.
For last week's picks, see the Elevens Gameweek 10 preview, and every earlier round is in the Elevens preview hub.
FAQ
Who should I captain in Elevens Gameweek 11?
Erling Haaland is the captain at 104.5 projected points against Fulham, 15.4 clear of Mohammed Kudus (89.1 against Ipswich). Jérémy Doku (85.2) is the third option. In Gameweek 12 Bruno Fernandes takes over at 92.0 while Haaland is at Arsenal.
Is Bruno Fernandes worth buying for Elevens Gameweek 11?
Yes. Bruno Fernandes has the highest three-gameweek projection in the game, 257.6 from [A]LIV → [H]BRE → [A]NEW, and rises to 106.6 against Coventry in Gameweek 14. He is projected for 89 minutes every week and takes Manchester United's penalties.
Who are the best defenders for Elevens Gameweek 11?
Luka Vuskovic is the best defender at 82.3 this week and 231.3 over three gameweeks. Virgil van Dijk (218.6) and James Hill (210.8) are next over the window, and Jan Paul van Hecke (74.9) is the best Tottenham option for the Ipswich game.
Should I sell Noni Madueke before Elevens Gameweek 11?
Yes. Noni Madueke is projected for only 55 minutes and 49.7 points this week, then 43.1 and 39.8. Mohammed Kudus or Bryan Mbeumo are the better forwards for the next three gameweeks.
Best differentials for Elevens Gameweek 11?
Morgan Gibbs-White and Neco Williams are the best less obvious picks: both rise through Forest's [A]BOU → [H]CHE → [A]HUL, to 69.3 and 68.0 in Gameweek 13. Bryan Mbeumo is the forward option at 59.5 → 73.9 → 68.0.
This preview was written by TheFantasyTool AI.