Elevens Gameweek 10: captain picks and best buys
Elevens Premier League Gameweek 10 preview: best buys, captain picks and differentials
Elevens Premier League Gameweek 10 runs from Friday 6 November to Sunday 8 November, and the transfer you make before the deadline should be judged on Gameweeks 10, 11 and 12 together. Three things decide it. Arsenal host Hull in the best fixture of the season so far, and their run continues [A]NEW → [H]MCI, so the question is which Arsenal players are worth more than one week. Manchester City's [A]NFO → [H]FUL is a two-week run for Erling Haaland before the trip to the Emirates in Gameweek 12, which changes the captaincy plan from that week on. And three of the five most-owned players in the game, Mohammed Kudus, Alysson Edward and James Maddison, all project below the players you could replace them with. All ten fixtures are set for every gameweek from 10 to 15, so there are no blanks to plan around. Every number below is the model's current projection, the same one shown on the Elevens player picks page.
Gameweek 10 programs: whose next three gameweeks are worth owning
Arsenal's [H]HUL → [A]NEW → [H]MCI is the best three-gameweek run in the game on both columns, with 6.03 expected goals and 1.34 expected clean sheets. Most of that sits in Gameweek 10: Hull at home is an 81% win probability, 2.65 expected goals and a 58% clean sheet chance, all three the highest of the week by a distance. Newcastle away is a normal fixture and Manchester City at home is the hard one, so Arsenal are a strong one-week attack and a good three-week defence rather than a team to stack for the long run.
Brighton ([H]BRE → [A]HUL → [H]NEW, 5.82 expected goals, 0.96 expected clean sheets) are the program that improves after this week, because Hull away in Gameweek 11 is the second-best fixture of that round. Liverpool ([A]CRY → [H]MUN → [A]EVE, 5.49) are third for goals with three fixtures that are all at least average. Manchester City ([A]NFO → [H]FUL → [A]ARS, 5.32) have the best two-week run at the top end, and the Arsenal game in Gameweek 12 is the week to plan around rather than avoid: **Arsenal - Manchester City** is where every City projection drops.
Bournemouth ([A]IPS → [H]NFO → [A]FUL, 0.86 expected clean sheets) remain the quiet program, with three winnable games in a row, and Tottenham ([A]LEE → [H]IPS → [A]SUN) are joint second for clean sheets at 0.96 despite their low goal expectation. Everton have the second-best clean sheet chance of the week (36% against Coventry) but then go [A]BRE → [H]LIV, so their defenders are mostly a Gameweek 10 play. At the bottom, Hull ([A]ARS → [H]BHA → [A]CRY) have the weakest run on both columns (2.47 expected goals, 0.35 expected clean sheets), with Coventry, Ipswich, Newcastle and Sunderland next. The full fixture list is on the Elevens schedule, and the bookmaker-derived numbers behind this table are on market probabilities.
| Team | Gameweek 10 | Win probability | Expected goals | Clean sheet | Program (GW10-12) | 3-round xG | 3-round CS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARS | [H]HUL | 81% | 2.65 | 58% | [H]HUL → [A]NEW → [H]MCI | 6.03 | 1.34 |
| BHA | [H]BRE | 49% | 1.83 | 28% | [H]BRE → [A]HUL → [H]NEW | 5.82 | 0.96 |
| LIV | [A]CRY | 55% | 1.98 | 31% | [A]CRY → [H]MUN → [A]EVE | 5.49 | 0.90 |
| MCI | [A]NFO | 56% | 1.96 | 33% | [A]NFO → [H]FUL → [A]ARS | 5.32 | 0.92 |
| BOU | [A]IPS | 49% | 1.75 | 30% | [A]IPS → [H]NFO → [A]FUL | 4.85 | 0.86 |
| CHE | [A]SUN | 44% | 1.58 | 28% | [A]SUN → [H]LEE → [A]NFO | 4.82 | 0.85 |
| MUN | [H]AVL | 44% | 1.72 | 24% | [H]AVL → [A]LIV → [H]BRE | 4.75 | 0.64 |
| AVL | [A]MUN | 31% | 1.41 | 18% | [A]MUN → [H]SUN → [A]IPS | 4.67 | 0.82 |
| CRY | [H]LIV | 21% | 1.17 | 14% | [H]LIV → [A]COV → [H]HUL | 4.50 | 0.79 |
| TOT | [A]LEE | 36% | 1.33 | 26% | [A]LEE → [H]IPS → [A]SUN | 4.47 | 0.96 |
| LEE | [H]TOT | 37% | 1.36 | 26% | [H]TOT → [A]CHE → [H]COV | 4.27 | 0.83 |
| BRE | [A]BHA | 26% | 1.29 | 16% | [A]BHA → [H]EVE → [A]MUN | 4.27 | 0.67 |
| EVE | [H]COV | 56% | 1.83 | 36% | [H]COV → [A]BRE → [H]LIV | 4.09 | 0.77 |
| FUL | [H]NEW | 43% | 1.62 | 26% | [H]NEW → [A]MCI → [H]BOU | 3.93 | 0.58 |
| NFO | [H]MCI | 20% | 1.10 | 14% | [H]MCI → [A]BOU → [H]CHE | 3.64 | 0.57 |
| SUN | [H]CHE | 30% | 1.26 | 21% | [H]CHE → [A]AVL → [H]TOT | 3.46 | 0.67 |
| NEW | [A]FUL | 31% | 1.34 | 20% | [A]FUL → [H]ARS → [A]BHA | 3.45 | 0.51 |
| IPS | [H]BOU | 26% | 1.21 | 17% | [H]BOU → [A]TOT → [H]AVL | 3.41 | 0.53 |
| COV | [A]EVE | 20% | 1.01 | 16% | [A]EVE → [H]CRY → [A]LEE | 3.23 | 0.57 |
| HUL | [A]ARS | 5% | 0.55 | 7% | [A]ARS → [H]BHA → [A]CRY | 2.47 | 0.35 |
Best goalkeepers for Gameweek 10
Jordan Pickford (EVE) is the goalkeeper to buy. He has the top projection of Gameweek 10 (48.0) at home to Coventry, and [H]COV → [A]BRE → [H]LIV gives 48.0 → 43.3 → 43.4 (134.7), the best three-gameweek total and the best six-gameweek weighted score of any keeper. He is in under 5% of squads, so he is both the safe pick and a differential.
Robin Roefs (SUN) is the flat alternative: [H]CHE → [A]AVL → [H]TOT at 44.0 → 43.2 → 44.0 (131.2), and he stays between 42 and 45 all the way to Gameweek 15, which makes him a keeper you can buy once and stop thinking about. Caoimhin Kelleher (BRE) is just behind on [A]BHA → [H]EVE → [A]MUN at 42.7 → 44.9 → 43.1 (130.7), and Lukas Hornicek (NEW, 43.7 → 41.8 → 43.0) has the second-best weighted score of any keeper because his projection climbs from Gameweek 13. David Raya (ARS) has the 58% clean sheet chance against Hull and projects 46.4, but falls to 42.7 and 41.1 against Newcastle and Manchester City, so he is a one-week keeper inside a three-week window. Zion Suzuki (AVL) is down to 82 projected minutes and 41.2 at Old Trafford: a hold if you own him, no longer the buy.
Best defenders for Gameweek 10
This is where this week's ranking and the three-gameweek ranking disagree. Gabriel tops Gameweek 10 (78.8) against Hull, with 0.15 expected goals and a 54% clean sheet chance, but Luka Vuskovic (BHA) is second this week (78.2) and clear of everyone over the window. [H]BRE → [A]HUL → [H]NEW gives 78.2 → 81.8 → 76.0 (236.0), the best three-gameweek total of any player in the game, and his Gameweek 11 score at Hull is the third-highest projection of that week. It is built on 9.2 projected clearances, blocks, interceptions and tackles this week and 82 projected minutes, so it does not depend on Brighton keeping a clean sheet. If you are buying one defender and keeping him, buy Vuskovic. Why now: his three best weeks of the next six are the next three.
Gabriel (ARS) is the one-week defender: [H]HUL → [A]NEW → [H]MCI at 78.8 → 66.7 → 61.5 (207.0). He is a fine hold after Hull, but the case for buying him is Gameweek 10 alone, so only bring him in if you were going to make the move anyway. Virgil van Dijk (LIV) is the steadiest asset in the position: [A]CRY → [H]MUN → [A]EVE at 74.7 → 71.7 → 69.5 (215.9), second over the window and second on the six-gameweek weighted score, and he is in barely any squads. James Hill (BOU) is the template defender, in around 10% of squads, and worth keeping: [A]IPS → [H]NFO → [A]FUL at 76.3 → 70.5 → 66.5 (213.3), with 8.9 projected defensive actions this week.
Tarik Muharemovic (LEE) is the defensive differential. [H]TOT → [A]CHE → [H]COV gives 65.6 → 60.8 → 69.0 (195.4), he has the most projected defensive actions of any of these defenders (10.3 this week), and his 69.0 against Coventry in Gameweek 12 is the fourth-highest projection of any player that week. James Tarkowski (EVE) is the Gameweek 10 version of Gabriel: 77.4 against Coventry, then 64.1 at Brentford and 63.8 against Liverpool. Olivier Boscagli (BHA, 68.3 → 69.7 → 64.4) gives you the Brighton program for less ownership pressure than Vuskovic, and Jan Paul van Hecke (TOT, 64.1 → 68.8 → 62.0) is the Tottenham defender who peaks against Ipswich in Gameweek 11.
Best midfielders for Gameweek 10
The midfield ranking also splits. Martin Ødegaard (ARS) has the top midfield projection of the week by eight points (82.9 against Hull), but [H]HUL → [A]NEW → [H]MCI then gives 62.2 and 56.2, so over three gameweeks he is fourth. Pascal Gross (BHA) is first: [H]BRE → [A]HUL → [H]NEW at 70.4 → 73.2 → 65.4 (209.0), rising into the Hull game, and he is Brighton's penalty taker. In under 5% of squads, he is the midfielder to buy and keep. Buy Martin Ødegaard only if Hull is the one week you care about; the move costs you a transfer again in Gameweek 11.
Cole Palmer (CHE) is the premium differential. [A]SUN → [H]LEE → [A]NFO gives 74.8 → 71.4 → 61.7 (207.9) on 81 projected minutes this week, he carries 0.35 expected goals, the most of any midfielder in the top ten, and he is Chelsea's penalty taker. His Gameweek 13 at home to Crystal Palace (76.7) is his best week of the six, so he is a hold beyond the window. Florian Wirtz (LIV) is almost identical at 74.0 → 70.5 → 62.8 (207.3) on Liverpool's [A]CRY → [H]MUN → [A]EVE, and the two have the best six-gameweek weighted scores of any midfielder. Check the Elevens predicted lineups before the deadline to confirm both start.
Elliot Anderson (MCI) is the City midfielder for the next two weeks: [A]NFO → [H]FUL → [A]ARS at 67.3 → 74.6 → 51.9, with 8.1 projected defensive actions under his attacking returns. The drop at Arsenal is real, so he is a two-week pick with the sale planned for Gameweek 12. Marcus Tavernier (BOU) is the steady midfield option on Bournemouth's run at 72.5 → 63.4 → 57.0 (192.9). Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall (EVE) has a big Gameweek 10 (73.5 against Coventry) but falls to 53.0 and 52.7, so he is a one-week pick at most. Rayan Cherki (MCI) is still not the route into City: 33 projected minutes this week and under 45 in each of the next two.
Best forwards for Gameweek 10
Erling Haaland (MCI) has the top projection of the week (88.2) and the best six-gameweek weighted score of any player. [A]NFO → [H]FUL → [A]ARS gives 88.2 → 90.4 → 44.8, with 0.73 expected goals at Forest, and he is City's penalty taker. The Arsenal week halves his score, but he is back to 80.5 at home to Leeds in Gameweek 13, so he is a hold through it, not a sell.
The forward ranking splits on Arsenal. Kai Havertz projects 81.7 against Hull, the third-highest score of the week, but falls to 56.8 and 51.7 on [A]NEW → [H]MCI. Jérémy Doku (MCI) is the better buy over the window: [A]NFO → [H]FUL → [A]ARS at 73.1 → 84.3 → 53.1 (210.5), 20.3 more than Havertz across the three, and his 84.3 against Fulham is the second-highest projection of Gameweek 11. If you are buying one forward now and keeping him, buy Jérémy Doku.
Bryan Mbeumo (MUN) is the biggest differential in the game. He is in barely any squads, yet [H]AVL → [A]LIV → [H]BRE gives 73.8 → 59.8 → 72.4 (206.0), and his six-gameweek weighted score is level with Jérémy Doku's because the run behind it is even better: 85.8 at home to Coventry in Gameweek 14. He is the second-highest projected player in Gameweek 12, the week Haaland drops, which is why the move is worth making now rather than then. Charalampos Kostoulas (BHA) is the Brighton forward on the same improving run as Vuskovic and Gross: 65.8 → 67.8 → 62.0 (195.6). Alexander Isak (LIV, 69.5 → 64.5 → 53.7) is fine for the first two weeks, and Dominic Calvert-Lewin (LEE) is Leeds' penalty taker with an up-and-down 63.2 → 51.6 → 68.5 that peaks against Coventry in Gameweek 12.
Captain picks for Elevens Gameweek 10
Erling Haaland (MCI) is the captain at 88.2 projected points at Nottingham Forest, on a [A]NFO → [H]FUL → [A]ARS run that makes him the top captain option in two of the next three weeks. He is ahead of Martin Ødegaard (82.9 against Hull) and Kai Havertz (81.7 against Hull). Gabriel (78.8) and Luka Vuskovic (78.2) are the defensive alternatives. Martin Ødegaard is the differential armband if you own him for the Hull game, but Haaland's 0.73 expected goals and penalties give the higher ceiling.
Plan the next two weeks as well. In Gameweek 11 Haaland leads again (90.4 against Fulham), ahead of Jérémy Doku (84.3) and Vuskovic (81.8). In Gameweek 12 Haaland drops to 44.8 at Arsenal, and the top three are Vuskovic (76.0), Bryan Mbeumo (72.4) and Virgil van Dijk (69.5). That is the case for owning Vuskovic or Mbeumo before Gameweek 12 rather than buying them into it: they are the captaincy answer for the one week Haaland is not.
Who to sell before Gameweek 10
Manuel Ugarte (MUN) and Richarlison (TOT) are the clearest sales. Ugarte is in around 9% of squads and is listed as unavailable until April; Richarlison is in around 9% and is out until the end of December. Both project 0 in every gameweek from 10 to 15. Why now: there is no week inside the window to wait for.
Lamare Bogarde (AVL, around 10% of squads) and Joe Gelhardt (HUL, around 11%) are the same problem in a different shape. Bogarde projects 6 minutes this week and 2.4 and 2.0 points in the next two; Gelhardt projects 14 minutes and 6.7 at the Emirates, then 11.7 and 13.9. Why now: neither is projected for even half a game in any of the next six gameweeks, and a squad slot that scores nothing also gives you no cover if a starter drops out.
James Maddison (TOT) is in around 12% of squads but projects only 35 minutes in each of the next three gameweeks, worth 30.8 → 38.1 → 31.0 on [A]LEE → [H]IPS → [A]SUN. Why now: his minutes are flat at a third of a game, so waiting does not bring a better week, and Gross or Palmer score more than twice as much over the same three. Alysson Edward (AVL) is the most-owned forward alongside Kudus, at around 13%, but his projected minutes fall from 50 to 45 to 41 over [A]MUN → [H]SUN → [A]IPS, for 35.5 → 36.3 → 32.6. Why now: his best week of the six is Gameweek 11, and it is only 36.3. Pedro Porro (TOT, around 8%) goes for the same reason: 61 → 54 → 51 projected minutes and 48.1 → 48.6 → 40.6. Emiliano Buendia (AVL) is down to 41 projected minutes this week and is no longer the Villa penalty route worth a slot.
Mohammed Kudus (TOT) is the most-owned player in the game, in around 13% of squads, and you can wait a round on him. Leeds away is a decent fixture (61.7), and Ipswich at home in Gameweek 11 is his best week of the six (65.8). After that he goes 52.5 at Sunderland and 39.7 against Arsenal in Gameweek 14, so plan the move for Gameweek 12, not this week.
For the full optimum across the next gameweeks, run the live optimal teams for Elevens, and read how our predicted lineups are built before trusting any minutes figure. Last week's picks are in the Elevens Gameweek 9 preview, and every round is collected in the Elevens preview hub.
FAQ
Who should I captain in Elevens Gameweek 10?
Erling Haaland is the top captain pick at 88.2 projected points at Nottingham Forest, ahead of Martin Ødegaard (82.9) and Kai Havertz (81.7) against Hull. Haaland also leads Gameweek 11 (90.4 against Fulham), but drops to 44.8 at Arsenal in Gameweek 12, when Luka Vuskovic (76.0) and Bryan Mbeumo (72.4) take over.
Who are the best defenders for Elevens Gameweek 10?
Luka Vuskovic has the best three-gameweek total of any player (236.0) on [H]BRE → [A]HUL → [H]NEW. Gabriel has the top defender projection for Gameweek 10 alone (78.8 against Hull), and Virgil van Dijk (215.9) and James Hill (213.3) are the steadiest holds behind Vuskovic.
Should I buy Martin Ødegaard for Elevens Gameweek 10?
Only as a one-week pick. Martin Ødegaard projects 82.9 against Hull, the top midfield score of the week, but 62.2 and 56.2 against Newcastle and Manchester City. Pascal Gross (209.0 over three gameweeks) is the midfielder to buy and keep.
Should I sell James Maddison before Elevens Gameweek 10?
Yes. Maddison projects only 35 minutes in each of the next three gameweeks, worth 30.8, 38.1 and 31.0 points. Pascal Gross (209.0) and Cole Palmer (207.9) score more than twice as much over the same window.
Best differentials for Elevens Gameweek 10?
Bryan Mbeumo (206.0 over three gameweeks, in barely any squads), Virgil van Dijk (215.9), Tarik Muharemovic (195.4) and Jordan Pickford (134.7, the top goalkeeper) are the low-owned picks whose projections hold across the next three gameweeks.
This preview was written by TheFantasyTool AI.