Elevens Gameweek 9: captain picks and best buys
Elevens Premier League Gameweek 9 preview: best buys, captain picks and differentials
Elevens Premier League Gameweek 9 runs from Saturday 31 October to Monday 2 November. It is a weekend with two big matches, Liverpool - Arsenal and Chelsea - Manchester United, but the transfer you make this week should be judged on Gameweeks 9, 10 and 11 together. Three things decide it. First, Manchester City's [H]BHA → [A]NFO → [H]FUL is the best attacking run in the game, so Erling Haaland stays the captain and the anchor of every squad. Second, the best defender over the window is again Luka Vuskovic, not one of the clean-sheet names. Third, several players are about to stop scoring: Mike Penders, Bukayo Saka and Antoine Semenyo all project close to nothing after this week. All ten fixtures are set for every gameweek from 9 to 14, so there are no blanks to plan around. Every number below is the model's current projection, the same one shown on the Elevens player picks page.
Gameweek 9 programs: whose next three gameweeks are worth owning
Manchester City's [H]BHA → [A]NFO → [H]FUL is the best three-gameweek run in the game, with 6.29 expected goals. Brighton at home carries the highest goal expectation of the round (2.12) and a 57% win probability, and the Fulham home game in Gameweek 11 brings the run back up after the Forest trip. City are the attack to own for the whole window, not only this weekend.
Arsenal ([A]LIV → [H]HUL → [A]NEW, 5.98) are second for goals and clearly first at the back, with 1.31 expected clean sheets over the three. That is the most of any team, and no other side reaches 1.00. Anfield is the week to plan around rather than avoid, because the Hull home game in Gameweek 10 is where the Arsenal program pays out. Chelsea ([H]MUN → [A]SUN → [H]LEE, 5.48) open with the third-highest goal expectation of the round (1.97, with a 52% win probability) and close with Leeds at home.
Tottenham have the best single fixture for defenders this week: a 58% win probability and a 34% clean sheet chance against Crystal Palace, both the highest of the round. Their run continues with [A]LEE → [H]IPS, which keeps them fifth for goals (5.02). Bournemouth ([H]LEE → [A]IPS → [H]NFO, 0.89 expected clean sheets) are the quiet program of the window, with three winnable games in a row. At the bottom, Hull ([H]IPS → [A]ARS → [H]BHA) have the weakest run on both columns (2.80 expected goals, 0.44 clean sheets), and Coventry, Nottingham Forest and Ipswich are not far above them. The full fixture list is on the Elevens schedule, and the bookmaker-derived numbers behind this table are on market probabilities.
| Team | Gameweek 9 | Win probability | Expected goals | Clean sheet | Program (GW9-11) | 3-round xG | 3-round CS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MCI | [H]BHA | 57% | 2.12 | 29% | [H]BHA → [A]NFO → [H]FUL | 6.29 | 0.98 |
| ARS | [A]LIV | 42% | 1.55 | 27% | [A]LIV → [H]HUL → [A]NEW | 5.98 | 1.31 |
| CHE | [H]MUN | 52% | 1.97 | 27% | [H]MUN → [A]SUN → [H]LEE | 5.48 | 0.88 |
| BHA | [A]MCI | 21% | 1.24 | 12% | [A]MCI → [H]BRE → [A]HUL | 5.07 | 0.79 |
| TOT | [H]CRY | 58% | 2.01 | 34% | [H]CRY → [A]LEE → [H]IPS | 5.02 | 0.97 |
| LIV | [H]ARS | 31% | 1.29 | 21% | [H]ARS → [A]CRY → [H]MUN | 4.95 | 0.77 |
| BOU | [H]LEE | 44% | 1.53 | 30% | [H]LEE → [A]IPS → [H]NFO | 4.89 | 0.89 |
| BRE | [H]NFO | 47% | 1.67 | 30% | [H]NFO → [A]BHA → [H]EVE | 4.58 | 0.80 |
| AVL | [H]FUL | 46% | 1.63 | 30% | [H]FUL → [A]MUN → [H]SUN | 4.51 | 0.80 |
| MUN | [A]CHE | 24% | 1.29 | 14% | [A]CHE → [H]AVL → [A]LIV | 4.47 | 0.58 |
| EVE | [A]NEW | 31% | 1.35 | 20% | [A]NEW → [H]COV → [A]BRE | 4.12 | 0.78 |
| NEW | [H]EVE | 43% | 1.60 | 26% | [H]EVE → [A]FUL → [H]ARS | 3.89 | 0.66 |
| CRY | [A]TOT | 19% | 1.07 | 13% | [A]TOT → [H]LIV → [A]COV | 3.76 | 0.58 |
| LEE | [A]BOU | 29% | 1.20 | 22% | [A]BOU → [H]TOT → [A]CHE | 3.72 | 0.68 |
| SUN | [A]COV | 37% | 1.37 | 27% | [A]COV → [H]CHE → [A]AVL | 3.66 | 0.65 |
| FUL | [A]AVL | 28% | 1.22 | 20% | [A]AVL → [H]NEW → [A]MCI | 3.66 | 0.54 |
| IPS | [A]HUL | 36% | 1.40 | 24% | [A]HUL → [H]BOU → [A]TOT | 3.65 | 0.58 |
| NFO | [A]BRE | 27% | 1.21 | 19% | [A]BRE → [H]MCI → [A]BOU | 3.56 | 0.55 |
| COV | [H]SUN | 35% | 1.30 | 26% | [H]SUN → [A]EVE → [H]CRY | 3.53 | 0.67 |
| HUL | [H]IPS | 37% | 1.41 | 25% | [H]IPS → [A]ARS → [H]BHA | 2.80 | 0.44 |
Best goalkeepers for Gameweek 9
The goalkeeper projections are tightly bunched this week, so the decision rests on the program, not on Gameweek 9. Jordan Pickford (EVE) is the buy. On [A]NEW → [H]COV → [A]BRE he goes 44.2 → 47.5 → 43.3 (135.0), the best three-gameweek total of any keeper and the best six-gameweek weighted score (161.0). Coventry at home in Gameweek 10 is the top goalkeeper projection of that week. He scores on saves (3.4 projected this week) rather than on Everton's 20% clean sheet chance, which is why the away trips do not hurt him much. Why now: his best week is the next one, so the transfer has to land before this deadline.
Zion Suzuki (AVL) has the top goalkeeper projection of Gameweek 9 (46.3) against Fulham, and [H]FUL → [A]MUN → [H]SUN holds at 46.3 → 42.9 → 45.3 (134.5). Caoimhin Kelleher (BRE) is just as steady on [H]NFO → [A]BHA → [H]EVE at 45.6 → 43.5 → 45.6 (134.7), and Robin Roefs (SUN, 45.4 → 44.1 → 43.7) is a fair alternative. If you want the clean-sheet route instead, David Raya (ARS) dips to 40.4 at Anfield and then has 46.6 against Hull, and Antonin Kinsky (TOT) has the 34% clean sheet chance against Palace but falls to 40.7 at Leeds. Either is a two-week keeper inside a three-week window.
Best defenders for Gameweek 9
This is the position where this week's ranking and the three-gameweek ranking disagree most. Jan Paul van Hecke (TOT) has the top defender projection of Gameweek 9 (72.3) on the Palace fixture, but he drops to 59.1 at Leeds and 63.7 against Ipswich. If you are buying one defender and keeping him, buy Vuskovic.
Luka Vuskovic (BHA) looks like the wrong buy on fixtures and the right one on points. [A]MCI → [H]BRE → [A]HUL gives 69.2 → 74.2 → 77.3 (220.7), the best three-gameweek total and the best six-gameweek weighted score of any defender (255.8), and his projection rises in each of the three weeks. He scores on defensive actions (9.1 projected clearances, blocks, interceptions and tackles this week) and 0.08 expected goals, not on Brighton's 12% clean sheet chance at the Etihad. That rising trajectory is the case for doing it now rather than next week.
James Hill (BOU) is the most reliable hold: [H]LEE → [A]IPS → [H]NFO at 71.2 → 68.5 → 65.2 (204.9), with 86 projected minutes and 9.6 projected defensive actions. Antonio Silva (BOU, 68.1 → 65.3 → 62.1) and Adrien Truffert (BOU, 65.7 → 63.3 → 59.7) give the same Bournemouth program from a different angle, and Hill or Silva pair well with Djordje Petrovic (BOU, 41.0 → 41.7 → 41.0) if you want to double up on the same clean sheet. James Tarkowski (EVE) is the one to buy this week rather than last: [A]NEW → [H]COV → [A]BRE at 65.4 → 76.4 → 62.7 (204.5), and his 76.4 against Coventry is the top defender projection of Gameweek 10.
Marc Guehi (MCI) is the City defender on [H]BHA → [A]NFO → [H]FUL at 68.6 → 61.8 → 71.6 (202.0), with the Forest trip as the dip. Bobby Thomas (COV) has the most projected defensive actions of any defender (11.2), which keeps him at 71.2 → 67.1 → 63.5 on [H]SUN → [A]EVE → [H]CRY despite Coventry's weak program. Virgil van Dijk (LIV, 67.7 → 68.0 → 65.0) is a flat alternative, and Gabriel (ARS) is the clean-sheet option for Gameweek 10 at 61.0 → 73.7 → 58.6.
Best midfielders for Gameweek 9
Cole Palmer (CHE) is the top midfielder this week (86.2) and over the window. [H]MUN → [A]SUN → [H]LEE gives 86.2 → 75.9 → 74.6 (236.7), with 0.41 expected goals this week and Chelsea's penalties, and his six-gameweek weighted score (274.2) is the best of any midfielder. His floor is what makes him the hold: his lowest week of the three is still 74.6.
Bruno Fernandes (MUN) is the other premium, and his program runs the other way. [A]CHE → [H]AVL → [A]LIV gives 68.6 → 81.2 → 62.8 (212.6), and 81.2 against Aston Villa is the top projection of any player in Gameweek 10. He takes United's penalties and projects 82.8 in Gameweek 14. Owning both is the cleanest way to have a strong captain option every week.
Marcus Tavernier (BOU) is the midfield differential: [H]LEE → [A]IPS → [H]NFO at 70.1 → 72.2 → 63.9 (206.2), the third-best six-gameweek weighted score among midfielders (240.6), ahead of several more famous names. Rayan Cherki (MCI) gives the City program from midfield at 76.0 → 55.4 → 77.1 (208.5), with 0.34 expected assists this week, but his 68 projected minutes make him the riskier City pick. Elliot Anderson (MCI) is the safer one at 68.6 → 60.1 → 71.3, with 7.7 projected defensive actions underneath his attacking returns.
Arsenal's two midfielders are Gameweek 10 players. Declan Rice (ARS) goes 60.7 → 74.4 → 58.2 and Martin Ødegaard (ARS) 57.1 → 76.7 → 55.5 on [A]LIV → [H]HUL → [A]NEW, so they are worth bringing in next week rather than now. Pascal Gross (BHA) is the riser to watch: 57.1 → 65.1 → 70.6 on [A]MCI → [H]BRE → [A]HUL, and he takes Brighton's penalties. Morgan Rogers (CHE) has a strong Gameweek 9 (70.7) but falls to 56.6 and 55.2 behind it, which makes him a one-week pick at most.
Best forwards for Gameweek 9
Erling Haaland (MCI) is the highest-projected player in the game this week (92.6) and has the best three-gameweek total of any player (254.3) on [H]BHA → [A]NFO → [H]FUL, at 92.6 → 75.7 → 86.0. He carries 0.78 expected goals against Brighton and takes City's penalties. The one week to plan around is Gameweek 12 at Arsenal, where he drops to 41.1, but that is three weeks away and does not change the buy.
Jérémy Doku (MCI) and Joao Pedro (CHE) are where the forward ranking splits. Joao Pedro out-projects Doku this week (79.3 to 74.1) on the Manchester United home game, but Doku has 15.8 more over the next three: 74.1 → 63.1 → 76.0 (213.2) against Joao Pedro's 79.3 → 59.4 → 58.7 (197.4). If you are buying one forward and keeping him, buy Doku. Joao Pedro is the better pick only if you plan to move him on after this weekend.
Bryan Mbeumo (MUN) follows the Bruno pattern at 60.2 → 69.0 → 52.1 and then 73.5 in Gameweek 14. Evanilson (BOU, 59.6 → 62.2 → 53.5) is the Bournemouth forward on the same easy run as Hill and Tavernier. Charalampos Kostoulas (BHA) is the forward differential: 49.5 → 55.7 → 59.0 on [A]MCI → [H]BRE → [A]HUL, rising each week. Thiago Rodrigues (BRE) has a good Gameweek 9 against Forest (69.9, Brentford's penalty taker) but drops to 51.5 at Brighton. Check the Elevens predicted lineups before the deadline for the rotation-risk names, especially Cherki and Doku.
Captain picks for Elevens Gameweek 9
Erling Haaland (MCI) is the captain at 92.6 projected points at home to Brighton, the highest projection of the round, and [H]BHA → [A]NFO → [H]FUL makes him a captain option in two of the next three weeks. Cole Palmer (CHE) is the alternative at 86.2 against Manchester United, and Joao Pedro (CHE) is third at 79.3. No defender or goalkeeper comes close.
Plan the next two weeks as well. In Gameweek 10 the top captain projection moves to Bruno Fernandes (81.2 against Aston Villa), with Martin Ødegaard (76.7 against Hull) and Palmer (75.9 at Sunderland) close behind. In Gameweek 11 it is Haaland again (86.0 against Fulham). That is the case for holding both Haaland and Palmer, and for Bruno as the third premium if your squad can fit him.
Who to sell before Gameweek 9
Mike Penders (CHE) is the clearest sale, whatever Chelsea's [H]MUN → [A]SUN → [H]LEE looks like. He projects 29.3 this week on 60 projected minutes, already below every first-choice keeper in the game, and his minutes then fall to 7 and 8 in Gameweeks 10 and 11, taking him to 3.6 and 3.9. Why now: there is no good week left to sell into. Pickford, Suzuki or Kelleher are the direct replacements.
Bukayo Saka (ARS) and Antoine Semenyo (MCI) are both listed as unavailable and project nothing in Gameweeks 9 and 10, so Arsenal's [A]LIV → [H]HUL → [A]NEW and City's [H]BHA → [A]NFO → [H]FUL go to waste on them. Semenyo projects nothing in Gameweek 11 either, and Saka only 48.1. A slot that scores zero for two weeks is the most expensive thing in your squad. Why now: Arsenal's best fixture of the window is Gameweek 10 against Hull, and Saka will not be part of it. Viktor Gyökeres (ARS, 44.5 → 58.2 → 38.0) and Kai Havertz (ARS, 26.2 → 56.0 → 42.5) are the Arsenal attackers who do play, but neither is a better buy than Doku.
Joelinton (NEW) is a sale on minutes. He projects 49 minutes a week across the window, which caps him at 35.7 → 32.9 → 27.4 on [H]EVE → [A]FUL → [H]ARS. Why now: Arsenal at home in Gameweek 11 is his worst week, so every week you hold him from here costs points against any regular starter.
Kevin Schade (BRE) is the sell into a decent fixture. [H]NFO is a good home game, and 63.7 is a respectable projection on 82 minutes. But his projected minutes fall to around 60 from Gameweek 10, and he drops to 41.2 at Brighton and 48.3 against Everton. Selling now means selling into a fair score; waiting a week means selling out of a poor one. Mathias Jensen (BRE) is in the same position with less upside (38.6 → 28.9 → 33.6 on 50 and then 40 projected minutes). Keep Kelleher, who holds up across the whole Brentford run.
For the full optimum across the next gameweeks, run the live optimal teams for Elevens. Last week's picks are in the Elevens Gameweek 8 preview, and every round is collected in the Elevens preview hub.
FAQ
Who should I captain in Elevens Gameweek 9?
Erling Haaland is the top captain pick at 92.6 projected points at home to Brighton, ahead of Cole Palmer (86.2 against Manchester United) and Joao Pedro (79.3, also against United). Haaland is the Gameweek 11 captain as well (86.0 against Fulham), while Bruno Fernandes leads Gameweek 10 at 81.2.
Who are the best defenders for Elevens Gameweek 9?
Luka Vuskovic has the best three-gameweek total of any defender (220.7) on [A]MCI → [H]BRE → [A]HUL, rising 69.2 → 74.2 → 77.3. Jan Paul van Hecke has the top projection for Gameweek 9 alone (72.3), and James Hill is the steadiest hold at 204.9 over Bournemouth's [H]LEE → [A]IPS → [H]NFO.
Should I sell Bukayo Saka before Elevens Gameweek 9?
Yes. Saka is listed as unavailable and projects nothing in Gameweeks 9 and 10, so he misses Arsenal's best fixture of the window, Hull at home in Gameweek 10. Use the transfer on a player who scores this week.
Should I sell Mike Penders before Elevens Gameweek 9?
Yes, this week. Penders projects 29.3 in Gameweek 9, below every first-choice keeper, and then 3.6 and 3.9 as his projected minutes fall to 7 and 8. Jordan Pickford (135.0 over three gameweeks) is the best replacement.
Best differentials for Elevens Gameweek 9?
Marcus Tavernier (70.1 → 72.2 → 63.9 on Bournemouth's easy run), Luka Vuskovic (rising to 77.3 by Gameweek 11) and Charalampos Kostoulas (49.5 → 55.7 → 59.0) are the picks outside the obvious premiums whose projections hold or rise across the next three gameweeks.
This preview was written by TheFantasyTool AI.