Allsvenskan Fantasy Gameweek 23: best buys and captains

Allsvenskan Fantasy Gameweek 23 preview: captain picks, differentials and who to sell

Allsvenskan Fantasy Gameweek 23 opens tonight with IFK Göteborg - Västerås SK, and with eight gameweeks of the season left every transfer has to pay off over a run of fixtures, not a single weekend. This round's decision has three parts: whether to hold the two template midfielders through their quietest week of the next three, where the armband goes while they are quiet, and which highly-owned players the model no longer has starting.

The short version: Isak Bjerkebo (9.4m, SIR) and Bo Åsulv Hegland (8.3m, DIF) are owned by 62.6% and 53.6% of managers. This week they project only 4.9 and 4.6, then climb to 6.7 and 6.1 in Gameweek 24, and Bo Åsulv Hegland's 8.2 in Gameweek 25 is the highest single projection of the next three rounds. Hold both. The transfer belongs to the minutes problems under "who to sell", and the best fixtures of the week belong to Häcken, Elfsborg and IFK Göteborg. Every player's numbers are on the Allsvenskan Fantasy player picks page, and last week's calls are in our Allsvenskan Fantasy Gameweek 22 preview.

Gameweek 23 programs: whose next three gameweeks are worth owning

All sixteen clubs play once in each of Gameweeks 23, 24 and 25, so there is no blank or double to plan around and every three-round total below compares like with like. The table is sorted by expected goals over the three rounds; the full fixture list is on the Allsvenskan Fantasy schedule.

Häcken have the best attacking run in the game. [H]ÖIS → [A]MFF → [H]DEG adds up to 6.29 expected goals, and Gameweek 23 is the best part of it: a 73% win probability and 2.65 expected goals at home to Örgryte, who concede 1.93 expected goals a game this season, the most in the league. The Malmö FF trip in Gameweek 24 is the week to plan around, not a reason to avoid them, because Degerfors at home follows.

Djurgården have the opposite shape. [A]HIF → [A]BRO → [H]ÖIS starts with the hardest fixture on the slate, Hammarby - Djurgården, where they have a 23% win probability, and then turns sharply: Brommapojkarna away and Örgryte at home take them to 5.95 expected goals over the three. That is why their attackers are holds this week, not sells.

Hammarby own the best defensive program: [H]DIF → [A]HBK → [A]MJA gives 0.98 expected clean sheets over three rounds, the most of any club, from a defence that allows 1.04 expected goals a game. GAIS (0.94) and Mjällby (0.90) are the next-best defensive runs and are far cheaper places to buy a clean sheet. GAIS already have 10 clean sheets this season, one behind Djurgården's league-high 11.

Elfsborg have the single best fixture of the round, [H]HBK, with a 46% clean-sheet chance, the highest of the week, and 2.36 expected goals against a Halmstads BK side that scores 0.73 goals a game. After it comes [A]SIR → [H]MFF and later [A]AIK → [H]ÖIS → [A]HIF, so this is one very good fixture rather than a run. It rewards the Elfsborg players you already own and makes Gameweek 23 a strong Loan Rangers week, but it is not a reason to spend a transfer on a new one. IFK Göteborg are the same story: [H]VÄS is good, two away trips follow. At the bottom, Halmstads BK ([A]ELF → [H]HIF → [A]VÄS, 2.79 expected goals) and Örgryte (0.35 expected clean sheets) have the weakest runs in the league.

Best Gameweek 23 goalkeepers

Warner Hahn (6.0m, HIF) is the best goalkeeper over the next three rounds with 13.6 projected points (4.4 → 4.8 → 4.4) on [H]DIF → [A]HBK → [A]MJA. The trip to Halmstads BK in Gameweek 24 is the best of the three with a 40% clean-sheet chance. 25.9% own him, so he is a hold rather than a differential.

Robin Wallinder (5.9m, MJA) is the safer pick for this week: 4.6 → 4.5 → 4.1 (13.2) on [H]DEG → [A]VÄS → [H]HIF, with a 36% clean-sheet chance against Degerfors. Mergim Krasniqi (5.4m, GAI) has the rising line, 4.2 → 4.5 → 4.6 (13.3) on [H]SIR → [A]ÖIS → [H]IFK, at 6.3% ownership; GAIS's 25% clean-sheet chance against Sirius makes him a buy for Gameweek 24 rather than this week.

The value pick is Viktor Andersson (4.8m, IFK), IFK Göteborg's starting keeper, at 4.5 → 4.1 → 4.2 on [H]VÄS → [A]AIK → [A]GAI and owned by only 1.0%. He has the best points per million of any goalkeeper this week (0.94) and is the direct replacement for anyone still holding the other IFK Göteborg keeper (see "who to sell").

Isak Pettersson (5.5m, ELF) tops the goalkeeper projections this week at 5.0 thanks to [H]HBK, but drops to 3.7 in Gameweek 24. The round ranking and the three-round ranking disagree here: Isak Pettersson wins Gameweek 23, Warner Hahn wins the three rounds by 0.7 points. If you are buying one keeper and keeping him, buy Warner Hahn.

Best Gameweek 23 defenders

Niklas Hult (6.2m, ELF) is the top defender on both measures: 5.9 this week, the highest of any defender, and 12.9 over three rounds (5.9 → 2.9 → 4.1) on [H]HBK → [A]SIR → [H]MFF. A 46% clean-sheet chance plus 0.17 projected assists against Halmstads BK make him the best defensive captain alternative of the round. Gameweek 24 at Sirius is a dip, Malmö FF at home brings him back, and he projects 5.0 in Gameweek 27 against Örgryte. At 33.5% ownership he is a hold.

Hampus Skoglund (6.8m, HIF) (4.2 → 4.6 → 3.7, 12.5) and Frederik Winther (6.7m, HIF) (4.0 → 4.5 → 3.8, 12.3) are the starting Hammarby defenders on [H]DIF → [A]HBK → [A]MJA, the best clean-sheet run in the game. Both are projected for 86-87 minutes this week. If you want a share of Hammarby's defence, buy one of these two, not a rotation option.

Tobias Anker (5.2m, SIR) is the defender to line up for next week: 3.7 → 4.4 → 4.3 (12.4) on [A]GAI → [H]ELF → [H]AIK, and 5.0 in Gameweek 27 against Halmstads BK. The GAIS trip is the weak part, so you can wait a round on him: Gameweek 24 at home to Elfsborg is where his program turns. He is cheaper than his teammate Oscar Krusnell (6.9m) with almost the same three-round total (12.2), and Sirius allow 1.02 expected goals a game, the fewest in the league.

For a differential, Busanello (7.3m, MFF) is owned by 3.0% and projects 4.8 → 3.8 → 3.5 (12.1) on [H]KFF → [H]BKH → [A]ELF, with a 35% clean-sheet chance this week. Simon Gefvert (5.1m, VÄS) is the cheaper riser at 6.4% ownership: 3.4 → 3.9 → 4.8 (12.1) on [A]IFK → [H]MJA → [H]HBK. The away trip is the reason to bring him in for Gameweek 24 rather than now.

Budget defenders: Harry Hilvenius (4.5m, BKH) has 0.96 points per million this week, 4.3 at home to Örgryte, then 2.6 → 3.5 over [A]MFF → [H]DEG. Start him this week and bench him for the Malmö FF trip. Herman Magnusson (4.5m, VÄS) is the budget hold, already owned by 30.0%, rising 3.3 → 3.6 → 4.6 on [A]IFK → [H]MJA → [H]HBK.

The round and the horizon disagree on Elfsborg's other defenders. Alexander Jensen (6.1m, ELF) at 5.4 and Thomas Isherwood (5.5m, ELF) at 5.0 rank second and third among defenders this week, but fall to 2.5 and 2.7 in Gameweek 24. They are a Loan Rangers pick, not a transfer.

Best Gameweek 23 midfielders

The template pair stays. Bo Åsulv Hegland (8.3m, DIF) has the best three-round total of any player in the game, 18.9 (4.6 → 6.1 → 8.2), on [A]HIF → [A]BRO → [H]ÖIS, and 7.3 more in Gameweek 27 at home to Degerfors. He has 8 goals and 14 assists this season at 0.73 expected goal involvements per 90. The derby is his only weak week. If you do not own him, you can wait one round: buying him for Gameweek 24 still catches the whole run. Isak Bjerkebo (9.4m, SIR) (4.9 → 6.7 → 6.1, 17.7) on [A]GAI → [H]ELF → [H]AIK is on penalties, has 13 league goals and 0.76 expected goal involvements per 90, and projects 7.6 in Gameweek 27. Neither is a captain this week; both are next week.

Julius Lindberg (8.5m, BKH) is the Häcken midfielder to buy now: 6.0 at home to Örgryte, second in the whole game this week, built on 0.38 projected goals and 0.24 projected assists. His program is [H]ÖIS → [A]MFF → [H]DEG (6.0 → 3.9 → 4.6, 14.5 over three), and 9.9% ownership leaves plenty of room to gain on the field. He has 7 goals and 6 assists this season.

His teammate Mikkel Rygaard (8.4m, BKH) is the differential version. He projects 5.6 → 3.8 → 4.7 (14.1) on the same [H]ÖIS → [A]MFF → [H]DEG, takes Häcken's penalties, and stays up through Gameweek 28 (5.1 at AIK), which puts his six-round decay-weighted score level with Julius Lindberg's at 16.8. Only 2.0% of managers own him; the catch is 71 projected minutes against Julius Lindberg's 81.

Victor Lind (11.0m, HIF) is the premium to keep and stop thinking about: 5.4 → 5.7 → 4.4, then 5.2 → 4.9 → 5.4, flat across six rounds on [H]DIF → [A]HBK → [A]MJA → [H]SIR → [A]MFF → [H]ELF. He has 9 goals and 11 assists this season. The flat program is the case for him: he never needs a transfer to cover a bad week.

Value midfielders: Abdoulaye Doumbia (5.6m, BKH) (3.6% owned) projects 4.5 → 3.5 → 4.0 on [H]ÖIS → [A]MFF → [H]DEG and is still at 4.4 in Gameweek 28, a cheap long hold in Häcken's attack. Julius Magnusson (5.2m, ELF) has the best points per million of any midfielder this week (0.88) and is already owned by 19.2%; 4.6 → 3.2 → 3.6 on [H]HBK → [A]SIR → [H]MFF makes him a hold, not a new buy.

Leave Jeppe Okkels (7.2m, DIF) out this week and buy him for Gameweek 24. His 3.0 in the derby is too low to justify the buy now, but 3.0 → 4.0 → 5.1 on [A]HIF → [A]BRO → [H]ÖIS is rising, and at 0.7% ownership he is the cheaper route into Djurgården's attack.

One round-versus-horizon trap: Tobias Heintz (9.9m, IFK) tops the whole game this week at 6.1 against Västerås SK, but drops to 3.7 → 3.6 on [A]AIK → [A]GAI. Momoh Kamara (6.8m, ELF) (5.8 → 3.4 → 4.3) and Arbër Zeneli (7.9m, ELF) (5.7 → 3.4 → 4.0) have the same shape behind [H]HBK. Bo Åsulv Hegland trails Tobias Heintz by 1.5 this week and beats him by 5.5 over three rounds. All three are one-round plays, which in Allsvenskan Fantasy means a Loan Rangers pick, not a transfer.

Best Gameweek 23 forwards

Kristian Lien (10.2m, DIF) is the forward to own over the next three rounds: 3.5 → 4.6 → 6.7, 14.8 in total, on [A]HIF → [A]BRO → [H]ÖIS. He is on penalties and has 15 league goals from 11.62 expected goals. The derby is a dip, not a reason to sell, and with 40.0% ownership, selling him going into his best run is the riskier move.

Adrian Svanbäck (7.9m, BKH) is the new name in the forward picture. He is the top forward this week at 5.5 at home to Örgryte, with 0.48 projected goals, and his program [H]ÖIS → [A]MFF → [H]DEG (5.5 → 3.8 → 4.7, 14.0 over three) is the second-best of any forward, ahead of Paulos Abraham. He has 5 goals and 6 assists this season and is owned by only 6.8%. Here the round and the horizon disagree: Adrian Svanbäck beats Kristian Lien by 2.0 this week, Kristian Lien wins the three rounds by 0.8. If you own neither, Kristian Lien is the buy and keep; Adrian Svanbäck is the one that leaves 2.3m for a midfield upgrade.

Gustav Lindgren (8.1m, BKH) has the most projected goals of any forward this week (0.60) and 12 league goals, on the same Häcken program (5.4 → 3.6 → 4.2, 13.2). At 15.1% he is the mid-owned way into the best attack of the round. Paulos Abraham (10.7m, HIF) (4.8 → 5.1 → 4.0, 13.9) on [H]DIF → [A]HBK → [A]MJA is a hold for his 42.3% of owners, with 14 league goals behind him.

For value, Jacob Bergström (6.2m, MJA) is on penalties for Mjällby and projects 4.4 → 4.1 → 3.6 on [H]DEG → [A]VÄS → [H]HIF; he is projected for 84 minutes this week and owned by 20.6%. Leo Oestman (5.9m, ELF) (4.7, then 2.8) is another Elfsborg one-rounder.

Gameweek 23 captain picks

The two most-owned players in the game both sit outside this week's top eight, so the armband is open. These are the highest projections of the round (Victor Lind, Gustav Lindgren and Alexander Jensen tie on 5.4):

Captain #1: Tobias Heintz, 6.1 projected and 12.2 captained at home to Västerås SK, with 0.35 projected goals and 0.27 projected assists. #2: Julius Lindberg (6.0), a tenth behind and the better player to own beyond this week. #3: Niklas Hult (5.9), the clean-sheet-plus-assist route in the round's best defensive fixture. The gap between the top three is 0.2 points, so captain whichever of them you already own rather than buying one for the armband.

Captaincy is a plan, and the next two weeks point back to the template. Isak Bjerkebo (6.7) and Bo Åsulv Hegland (6.1) top Gameweek 24; Bo Åsulv Hegland (8.2) and Kristian Lien (6.7) top Gameweek 25. That is the strongest reason to hold both Djurgården players through a quiet week. The Allsvenskan Fantasy chip strategy page shows which later rounds suit each chip.

Who to sell before Gameweek 23

Nahir Besara (13.1m, HIF) is the clearest sell. He is the most expensive player in the game and owned by 29.0%, but the model has him on 20 projected minutes in the derby and 1.5 → 1.8 → 1.6 over [H]DIF → [A]HBK → [A]MJA. Why now: his minutes stay between 20 and 30 for the next four rounds, so there is no better gameweek to move him, and the money pays for Victor Lind or a Häcken attacker. Check the Allsvenskan Fantasy predicted lineups before the deadline; if he is named to start, hold one more round.

Victor Eriksson (6.3m, HIF) (17.5% owned) has the same problem one line further back: 28 projected minutes and 1.2 → 1.6 → 1.5 on [H]DIF → [A]HBK → [A]MJA, while Hammarby's best-in-league clean-sheet run goes to the starting pair. Why now: the run starts this week, so swapping him for Hampus Skoglund or Frederik Winther is a same-club move worth about 8 points over three rounds.

Elis Bishesari (5.0m, IFK) (9.3% owned) is projected for 1 minute in each of the next four gameweeks, with Viktor Andersson in IFK Göteborg's goal. Why now: a keeper who does not play scores nothing in any round, and his replacement is 0.2m cheaper.

Charlie Rosenqvist (5.2m, DIF) (12.5% owned) is on 27 projected minutes and 1.3 → 1.5 → 2.1 over [A]HIF → [A]BRO → [H]ÖIS. Djurgården's run is good, but it goes to Kristian Lien and Jeppe Okkels, so move him now and buy into it properly.

Linus Carlstrand (7.4m, AIK) is a sell into a decent fixture, and you can wait a round on it. [H]BRO is a fine game and 3.8 is a respectable return, but his projected minutes fall from 75 to 64 and then 56, and he projects 3.1 → 2.1 over [H]IFK → [A]SIR. Play him this week and move him before Gameweek 25 at the latest. 18.3% of managers own him.

Best Loan Rangers team for Gameweek 23

Loan Rangers gives you unlimited transfers for one gameweek. Gameweek 23 is a reasonable week for it, because Häcken, Elfsborg and IFK Göteborg each have one standout fixture while the template midfielders are quiet. Built for this round only, with at most three players per club and a 1-3-5-2 formation, the best squad the model finds is:

That XI projects 59.9 points, 66.0 with Tobias Heintz captained. Bench: Adam Wihed (HBK), Jack Tagesson (VÄS), Herman Magnusson (VÄS) and Ludvig Arvidsson (HBK). The live solver on the Allsvenskan Fantasy optimal teams page is the authoritative version and updates as lineups and odds move. The bookmaker numbers behind these fixtures are on the Allsvenskan Fantasy market probabilities page.

Gameweek 23 transfer summary

Sell: Nahir Besara, Victor Eriksson, Elis Bishesari and Charlie Rosenqvist, all on 30 projected minutes or fewer. Linus Carlstrand can wait until after this week.

Buy now: Julius Lindberg, Mikkel Rygaard or Adrian Svanbäck for Häcken's attack; Hampus Skoglund or Frederik Winther for Hammarby's clean-sheet run; Viktor Andersson as a cheap starting keeper.

Buy for Gameweek 24: Bo Åsulv Hegland if you do not own him, Jeppe Okkels, Tobias Anker and Simon Gefvert, all ahead of the fixtures where their programs turn.

Hold: Isak Bjerkebo, Kristian Lien, Victor Lind, Paulos Abraham, Niklas Hult and Warner Hahn through their quieter weeks.

Every Allsvenskan Fantasy preview this season is collected in the Allsvenskan Fantasy preview hub, and our fantasy guides explain how the projections are built.

FAQ

Who should I captain in Allsvenskan Fantasy Gameweek 23?

Tobias Heintz is the top captain pick with 6.1 projected points at home to Västerås SK, the highest projection of the round. Julius Lindberg (6.0) and Niklas Hult (5.9) are within 0.2 points; Isak Bjerkebo and Bo Åsulv Hegland are the better captains in Gameweeks 24 and 25.

Should I sell Nahir Besara before Allsvenskan Fantasy Gameweek 23?

Yes, unless he is named to start. The model projects him for 20 minutes and 1.5 → 1.8 → 1.6 points over the next three gameweeks, and as the most expensive player in the game his money is better spent on Victor Lind or a Häcken attacker.

Which budget defenders are best for Allsvenskan Fantasy Gameweek 23?

Harry Hilvenius (4.5m) has 0.96 points per million this week with 4.3 projected at home to Örgryte. Herman Magnusson (4.5m) is the budget hold, rising to 4.6 in Gameweek 25, and Simon Gefvert (5.1m) is the riser to bring in for Gameweek 24.

Best differentials for Allsvenskan Fantasy Gameweek 23?

Mikkel Rygaard (2.0% owned, 14.1 projected over three gameweeks and on penalties), Adrian Svanbäck (6.8% owned, 14.0 over three), Viktor Andersson (1.0% owned, IFK Göteborg's starting keeper) and Busanello (3.0% owned, 12.1 over three).

Should I hold Bo Åsulv Hegland in Allsvenskan Fantasy Gameweek 23?

Yes. He projects only 4.6 in the derby at Hammarby, but 6.1 and 8.2 follow, and his 18.9 over Gameweeks 23-25 is the best three-round total in the game.

This preview was written by TheFantasyTool AI.