Allsvenskan Fantasy Gameweek 23: buys and captains

Allsvenskan Fantasy Gameweek 23: best buys, captain picks and differentials

Allsvenskan Fantasy returns after an international break, and Gameweek 23 is the first of eight rounds that decide the season. The gap means this is the widest planning window left: the transfer made now is judged not by one weekend but by the run into November, and the model already knows which clubs own that run. Our Gameweek 22 preview closed the last block; this one opens the next.

The short version: Häcken and Djurgården have the two best attacking programs in the game, Hammarby have the best defensive one, and IFK Göteborg have a single enormous home fixture wrapped in a collapse. Telling those three shapes apart is the whole job this week. Everything below is built on the same numbers as the Allsvenskan Fantasy player picks and the market probabilities.

Whose next three Gameweeks are worth owning

Rank the league on the next three rounds rather than on Gameweek 23 alone and the order changes sharply. Häcken carry the strongest attacking program at 6.28 expected goals across Gameweek 23-25 ([H]ÖRG → [A]MAL → [H]DEG), opening at home to the side with the weakest defensive program in the league. Djurgården are second on 6.14 with a run that improves every week ([A]HAM → [A]BRO → [H]ÖRG): the first fixture is the hard one and the two behind it are not. Hammarby top the defensive column with 0.94 expected clean sheets from three ([H]DIF → [A]HAL → [A]MJA), and Sirius and GAIS are just behind on 0.92 each while also scoring well.

Read the Program column first and the Gameweek 23 columns second. Elfsborg have the single best clean-sheet number of the round at 40% against Halmstads BK, but their three-round defensive total is only 0.77 because a trip to Sirius follows - that is a one-week defensive play, not a defensive hold. Sirius are the opposite: 28% this week, but 0.92 expected clean sheets over three and an attack that keeps pace. If you are buying one defender and keeping him, the second shape is worth more than the first.

The avoid list is unusually clear. Örgryte have the weakest defensive program in the league at 0.34 expected clean sheets across three rounds, with only 3.16 expected goals to offset it. Halmstads BK are bottom of the attacking column at 2.92 and barely better defensively at 0.51. Kalmar FF (3.57 xG, 0.61 CS) and Brommapojkarna (3.71, 0.61) round out the group to move away from rather than into. No club blanks in Gameweek 23: all sixteen play once, and every kick-off time is on the Allsvenskan schedule.

Goalkeepers for Gameweek 23

Warner Hahn (6.0m, HAM) is the goalkeeper to own for the block. His program is [H]DIF → [A]HAL → [A]MJA, worth 13.4 projected points over three rounds - the best of any goalkeeper in the game - and the trajectory 4.2 → 4.8 → 4.4 says the best of it comes after this week rather than during it. He is already owned by 26.1% of managers, so this is a hold as much as a buy.

For a similar run at a lower price, Mergim Krasniqi (5.4m, GAI) has 13.2 over three on a program of [H]SIR → [A]ÖRG → [H]GOT - one of the three best defensive programs in the league - and only 6.2% of managers own him. David Celic (5.2m, SIR) is the other one worth naming: 4.1 → 4.3 → 4.4 across [A]GAI → [H]ELF → [H]AIK, rising every round, at 8.1% ownership. Both free up money for the attacking picks below without costing anything in the defensive column.

Viktor Andersson (4.8m, GOT) tops the goalkeeper list for Gameweek 23 itself on 4.6 points and is the best points-per-million goalkeeper in the round at 0.96. His program is [H]VAS → [A]AIK → [A]GAI, though, so the value sits entirely in the first week - fine as a short-term rotation with the sell-again round named as Gameweek 24, not as a goalkeeper to stop thinking about.

Defenders: the best buys

Matteo de Brienne (5.4m, GAI) is the standout. His program is [H]SIR → [A]ÖRG → [H]GOT and he projects 12.3 over the three - joint-top of every defender in the game - yet only 3.7% of managers own him, which is what makes him a genuine differential rather than a template pick. The middle fixture is the prize: away at the club with the weakest defensive numbers in the league.

Hampus Skoglund (6.8m, HAM) shares that 12.3 total on the program [H]DIF → [A]HAL → [A]MJA, and Frederik Winther (6.7m, HAM) is the cheaper way into the identical clean sheets at 24.2% ownership. Doubling one of them with Warner Hahn (6.0m, HAM) is the correlated stack the fixtures actually support: one clean sheet pays both, and their three-round defensive number is the best in the division.

At the value end, Henrik Castegren (4.9m, SIR) is the cheapest route into the Sirius program ([A]GAI → [H]ELF → [H]AIK) and returns 11.7 over three rounds, 2.39 points per million. Tobias Anker (5.2m, SIR) is the same fixtures a little dearer with 11.9 and slightly more attacking threat. Neither needs the round to break well to be worth holding - the trajectories 3.7 → 4.0 → 4.0 and 3.7 → 4.1 → 4.1 barely move, which is exactly what a set-and-forget defender should look like.

Two deliberate one-weekers, both of which need their exit named before they are bought. Noah Tolf (6.9m, GOT) tops the defenders for Gameweek 23 itself on 5.4 points, but his program is [H]VAS → [A]AIK → [A]GAI and he falls to 2.8 in Gameweek 24 - a rotation play, not a hold. Niklas Hult (6.1m, ELF) is second on 5.0 with the round's best clean-sheet chance behind him, and his program [H]HAL → [A]SIR → [H]MAL at least improves again in Gameweek 25 (5.0 → 2.8 → 4.0). If you want the ceiling this week, take one of them and plan to sell in 24.

Midfielders: the best buys

Bo Åsulv Hegland (8.3m, DIF) is the best asset in the game over this block. 20.3 projected points across [A]HAM → [A]BRO → [H]ÖRG, on a trajectory of 5.2 → 6.5 → 8.6 that climbs every single round. Gameweek 23 is the hardest of his three fixtures and he still projects 5.2 - so the reason to own him now is not this week, it is that both fixtures behind it are materially easier and his projection climbs into them. At 53.6% ownership he is close to template, and the run behind him is why.

Isak Bjerkebo (9.4m, SIR) is second on 19.0 over the same window, with a program of [A]GAI → [H]ELF → [H]AIK and penalty duty on top. His 5.6 → 7.0 → 6.4 trajectory peaks in Gameweek 24 rather than this one, which is the argument for getting him in now instead of chasing the score afterwards. He is the most-owned player in the game at 63.4%, so owning him protects rank more than it wins it - but not owning him is a real risk across these three rounds.

Julius Lindberg (8.4m, HAE) is the value route into the best attacking program in the league: 14.7 across [H]ÖRG → [A]MAL → [H]DEG, with a 6.0 → 3.9 → 4.8 trajectory that dips only for the trip to Malmö FF. At 8.2% ownership he costs a fraction of the premium midfielders above him. Mikkel Rygaard (8.4m, HAE) is the low-ownership alternative from the same club - 12.9 over three, 1.9% owned, and he takes the penalties.

Momoh Kamara (6.7m, ELF) is the value midfielder to own here: 4.9 points in Gameweek 23, 12.5 over three on a program of [H]HAL → [A]SIR → [H]MAL, and 0.73 points per million this round. The genuinely cheap option is Olle Lindberg (4.0m, MJA) - 3.8 points in the round at 0.95 per million, the best rate of any midfielder in the game, on a program of [H]DEG → [A]VAS → [H]HAM that carries one of the four best three-round clean-sheet numbers in the league.

Forwards: the best buys

Adrian Svanbäck (7.9m, HAE) and Gustav Lindgren (8.0m, HAE) are the two to prioritise, and they are the same bet: the best attacking program in the league, [H]ÖRG → [A]MAL → [H]DEG. Adrian Svanbäck projects 14.6 over three (5.8 → 4.0 → 4.8), Gustav Lindgren takes 14.1 (5.7 → 3.9 → 4.5). At 6.6% and 13.3% ownership neither is a template pick yet, and both improve again in Gameweek 25 after the one awkward fixture in the middle.

Kristian Lien (10.1m, DIF) is the premium hold. 16.6 over three on [A]HAM → [A]BRO → [H]ÖRG, penalties included, and his 4.4 → 5.0 → 7.2 trajectory is the second-steepest climb in the game. The first of those three is the hardest fixture and the 4.4 projection there is still respectable - the point of owning him now is that Gameweek 25 is where he pays, and that run cannot be bought into once it has started.

Jacob Bergström (6.2m, MJA) is the value forward: 13.0 over three on a program of [H]DEG → [A]VAS → [H]HAM, 0.77 points per million this week, and he is on penalties. Alexander Illum Simmelhack (6.5m, GOT) is the differential swing - 5.9 points in Gameweek 23, the highest of any forward in the round, at 0.9% ownership. His program is [H]VAS → [A]AIK → [A]GAI, though, so he is a one-week play with a named exit rather than a hold, and he is the same fixture shape as the sell below.

Captain picks for Gameweek 23

The captain scores double in Allsvenskan Fantasy, so this is a ceiling question rather than an average one - and it is worth choosing an armband that survives more than one round.

1. Tobias Heintz - 7.6 projected, the highest single-round number of any player in Gameweek 23, at home with a 68% win probability. The armband is the right use of him precisely because his program is [H]VAS → [A]AIK → [A]GAI and his points are concentrated in this one week.
2. Julius Lindberg - 6.0 projected on [H]ÖRG → [A]MAL → [H]DEG. A lower ceiling this week, but he is a strong armband again in Gameweek 25 at 4.8, which matters if you would rather not pay to bring in a new captain twice.
3. Isak Bjerkebo - 5.6 projected, and the safest of the three on minutes. Third this week; he is the clear Gameweek 24 captain at 7.0 and the clear Gameweek 25 captain at 6.4.

Alexander Illum Simmelhack (5.9), Adrian Svanbäck (5.8) and Gustav Lindgren (5.7) are the next three. Plan the armband two rounds deep rather than one and the Häcken and Sirius pair covers Gameweek 23, 24 and 25 without a further transfer, while the IFK Göteborg route needs a second move within a week. The market probabilities page shows the win probabilities behind each of those calls.

Hidden gems and differentials

Four names under 10% ownership with real three-round numbers. Matteo de Brienne (5.4m, GAI) at 3.7% owned returns 12.3 over [H]SIR → [A]ÖRG → [H]GOT - a program only one club beats for expected clean sheets. Mikkel Rygaard (8.4m, HAE) at 1.9% owned is worth 12.9 with penalty duty on the best attacking run in the league. Mergim Krasniqi (5.4m, GAI) at 6.2% is the cheapest goalkeeper route into one of the three best defensive programs in the league, worth 13.2 over three.

Arbër Zeneli (7.9m, ELF) is the fourth, at 1.0% ownership and 12.8 over three rounds on a program of [H]HAL → [A]SIR → [H]MAL, and he is on penalties. He is thinly owned because his first fixture is the hard one; he is worth buying because the two behind it are not, and the trajectory is 5.1 → 3.5 → 4.2. The optimal teams for Allsvenskan Fantasy will show how each of these fits into a full squad.

Who to sell before Gameweek 23

Nahir Besara (13.1m, HAM) is the clearest sale in the game, and the round to do it is this one. He is the most expensive player in Allsvenskan Fantasy and still owned by 29.4% of managers, but the model projects him 2.0 → 1.9 → 1.8 across [H]DIF → [A]HAL → [A]MJA - the lowest three-round return of any heavily-owned asset. The cause is minutes, not fixtures: nothing about that program is wrong, he simply is not projected to play enough of it, and every further week is a week of the most expensive place in a squad doing nothing.

Tobias Heintz (9.9m, GOT) and Sam Larsson (8.8m, GOT) are the sell-into-a-good-week pair, and the timing is the whole argument. Their Gameweek 23 fixture is a genuinely strong one - Tobias Heintz projects 7.6 this round and Sam Larsson takes 5.7, both among the best scores of the Gameweek - so this is not a bad week for either. But the program is [H]VAS → [A]AIK → [A]GAI, and their trajectories are 7.6 → 3.8 → 3.8 and 5.7 → 3.1 → 2.9. Captain the first of them if you like and then move both on: selling into a big score now beats selling out of a poor one ten days later, and the move is the same either way - only the number banked first changes.

Two smaller ones. Herman Magnusson (4.5m, VAS) is owned by 30.0% and returns only 9.6 over three on [A]GOT → [H]MJA → [H]HAL - but his trajectory is 2.5 → 3.0 → 4.1, so the better part of that run is in front of him rather than behind it, and you can wait a round on this one. Victor Eriksson (6.3m, HAM) is the genuine mistake, at 17.8% ownership and 3.2 over three rounds on minutes the model does not expect him to get - sell him this week, because unlike the others no upcoming fixture rescues him.

Before the Gameweek 23 deadline

The break makes team news unusually important this round, so check the predicted lineups once they land rather than trusting a Gameweek 22 starting eleven. Compare every projection on the full predicted-points table, sanity-check the fixture reads against the market probabilities, and let the optimal-teams solver show which combinations of the picks above actually fit together. More rounds in the Allsvenskan Fantasy preview hub.

FAQ

Who should I captain in Allsvenskan Fantasy Gameweek 23?

Tobias Heintz is the top captain pick for Gameweek 23 on 7.6 projected points, the highest single-round number in the game, at home to Västerås SK. Julius Lindberg (6.0) is the alternative if you want an armband that also works later in the block, and Isak Bjerkebo (5.6) is the safest on minutes. The captain scores double, so the ceiling matters more than the floor.

Which budget defenders are best for Gameweek 23?

Henrik Castegren at 4.9m is the best value defender in the game right now - 11.7 projected points over Gameweek 23-25 on a program of [A]GAI → [H]ELF → [H]AIK, at 2.39 points per million. Matteo de Brienne at 5.4m is the low-ownership version of the same idea with 12.3 over three, and Tobias Anker at 5.2m gives the identical fixtures to the more expensive Sirius options.

Should I sell Nahir Besara before Gameweek 23?

Yes, and this is the round to do it. Nahir Besara projects 2.0 → 1.9 → 1.8 across Gameweek 23-25, the weakest three-round return of any widely-owned player in Allsvenskan Fantasy, and the cause is minutes rather than fixtures - the program [H]DIF → [A]HAL → [A]MJA is a good one, he just is not projected to play enough of it. He is the most expensive player in the game, so holding him costs more than holding anyone else.

Best differentials for Allsvenskan Fantasy Gameweek 23?

Matteo de Brienne (3.7% owned, 12.3 over three rounds), Mikkel Rygaard (1.9% owned, 12.9, on penalties) and Mergim Krasniqi (6.2% owned, 13.2) are the three low-ownership picks the model likes most across Gameweek 23-25. All three come from clubs sitting in the top three of one of the two three-round columns, which is what separates a differential from a gamble.

Which teams have the best fixtures in Allsvenskan Fantasy Gameweek 23?

Over Gameweek 23-25, Häcken have the best attacking program at 6.28 expected goals ([H]ÖRG → [A]MAL → [H]DEG), Djurgården are second at 6.14, and Hammarby lead the defensive column with 0.94 expected clean sheets from three. In Gameweek 23 itself Elfsborg have the highest clean-sheet probability at 40% and Häcken the highest expected goals at 2.66. All sixteen clubs play once - there are no blanks.

This preview was written by TheFantasyTool AI.