Allsvenskan Fantasy Gameweek 22: captains and buys

Allsvenskan Fantasy Gameweek 22 preview: best buys, captain picks and differentials

Allsvenskan Fantasy Gameweek 22 is a full 16-team round – every club plays, so nobody blanks and no squad needs rescuing. That makes this a pure planning week, and the decision it is really about is the run behind it. Two of the strongest three-round programs in the game start here, one of them belongs to a side almost nobody is invested in yet, and two of the most-owned assets in the game are currently projected for under 35 minutes. The transfer you make before the deadline should be aimed at Gameweek 24, not just at Gameweek 22.

Every number below is the model’s current projection for the 16 clubs, pulled from the latest model run on 16 September. You can follow the same data live on the Allsvenskan Fantasy player picks page, and last week’s edition is here: Allsvenskan Fantasy Gameweek 21 preview.

The programs: whose next three Gameweeks are worth owning

Hammarby own the best three-round run in the league by a clear margin – 6.52 expected goals and 1.14 expected clean sheets across [A]DEG → [H]DIF → [A]HAL. Gameweek 22 is the softest of the three on paper (a 73% win probability and a 46% clean-sheet chance at Degerfors, both league highs this week), but the point is that the run does not fall off afterwards: the Djurgården home game is a genuine fixture and the trip to Halmstads BK in Gameweek 24 is against the weakest three-round program in the game. This is a three-Gameweek hold, not a one-week raid, and the three-per-club cap is the only thing stopping you loading up further.

Sirius are second at 5.92 expected goals with [A]ÖRG → [A]GAI → [H]ELF, and their shape is different: the best fixture is the one in front of you. Örgryte carry the lowest three-round clean-sheet total in the league (0.40 from three games) and are 16% to win at home this week. Häcken are the interesting one. Their 5.76 expected goals over three is third best, but their Gameweek 22 trip to Kalmar FF is only ordinary – the payoff is the Gameweek 23 home game with that same Örgryte side, where four separate players are projected at 5.3 or better. If you want that week, the buy has to be made now or next Gameweek at the latest.

At the other end, Halmstads BK (2.95 expected goals over three), Örgryte (3.29) and Degerfors (3.36) are the three programs to be selling out of rather than into. Kalmar FF and Västerås SK are barely better. The table below ranks every club on the three-round columns rather than on this week alone – the right-hand side is the part that should drive a transfer.

The 3-round CS column is a count, not a percentage: 1.14 means Hammarby are expected to keep 1.14 clean sheets from their next three games. Every club has exactly three fixtures in this window, so the totals are directly comparable. Full dates and kick-off times are on the Allsvenskan Fantasy schedule.

Goalkeepers for Gameweek 22

Warner Hahn (6.0m, HAM) is the best goalkeeper in the game right now on both horizons – 5.00 projected this Gameweek and 14.10 over [A]DEG → [H]DIF → [A]HAL, the highest three-round total of any keeper. The 46% clean-sheet chance at Degerfors is the best single number on the board, and his trajectory barely dips: 5.0 → 4.2 → 4.9. At 6.0m and 26% ownership he is the closest thing this position has to a settled answer.

David Celic (5.2m, SIR) is the value route. His [A]ÖRG → [A]GAI → [H]ELF program gives him 13.20 over three – joint-second among all keepers, within a point of the leader – for 5.2m and 8% ownership, and the money saved at this position is exactly what funds a premium midfielder. The genuine differential is Viktor Andersson (4.8m, GOT), owned by 0.9% of managers: 13.10 over [A]BRO → [H]VAS → [A]AIK, the best points-per-million of any starting keeper at 0.92, and his IFK Göteborg side actually improve in Gameweek 23 rather than fading.

One ranking disagreement worth naming: Jacob Rinne is second among keepers this Gameweek on 4.70, ahead of both of the names above, but drops to eighth over three rounds at 12.60. Djurgården go [H]ELF → [A]HAM → [A]BRO, and the two away games are the problem. If you are buying a keeper to keep, buy David Celic or Viktor Andersson; Jacob Rinne is only the better pick if you intend to move again in a week.

Defenders for Gameweek 22

Hampus Skoglund (6.8m, HAM) tops the position on both counts – 5.40 this week and 14.10 across [A]DEG → [H]DIF → [A]HAL. He is not a pure clean-sheet play either: 0.16 expected assists and 0.07 expected goals per game give him a real attacking floor on top of the Hammarby clean sheet. Frederik Winther (6.6m, HAM) sits just behind on 13.60 over the same program and is the more owned of the two at 24%, so the less-owned of the two is the marginally better differential in a very similar pair. With the three-per-club cap you are choosing between them, not stacking both alongside a midfielder and a forward from the same side.

Tobias Anker (5.2m, SIR) is the pick if you want the Sirius clean sheet without paying for it – 13.00 over [A]ÖRG → [A]GAI → [H]ELF, which is 0.88 points per million. Henrik Castegren (4.9m, SIR) is the cheaper team-mate with 12.30 over the same program, and his 0.90 points per million is the best of any defender in the three-round top ten – at 27% ownership he is already close to template. Oscar Krusnell (6.9m, SIR) is the premium version of the same [A]ÖRG → [A]GAI → [H]ELF run, and his 0.18 expected assists per game are the highest of the three – worth the extra outlay only if you need the attacking return rather than the floor.

The budget defender to know about is Oliver Zandén (5.0m, BRO), owned by just 4.5% of managers. Brommapojkarna are not a good defence – 0.57 expected clean sheets from three – but he plays close to 90 minutes, carries 0.14 expected assists a game, and his [H]GOT → [A]AIK → [H]DIF program still returns 11.50 over three. That is a defender bought for minutes and involvement rather than for shutouts, and it is the kind of filler that separates squads once everyone owns the obvious names.

Miro Tenho is the one to be careful with. He is sixth among defenders this Gameweek on 4.50 thanks to the home game with Elfsborg, but his three-round total of 10.80 is outside the top ten, and the dip is sharp: 4.5 → 2.7 → 3.6. He is a fine one-week hold and a poor three-week buy.

Midfielders for Gameweek 22

Isak Bjerkebo (9.5m, SIR) is the highest-projected player in the game for Gameweek 22 on 7.00, and he leads the three-round table too at 18.50 across [A]ÖRG → [A]GAI → [H]ELF. He carries 0.60 expected goals and 0.29 expected assists per game and takes 93% of Sirius penalties, which is what gives him the highest ceiling of anyone on the board. At 64% ownership he is not a differential – he is the asset you need a reason not to own.

Bo Åsulv Hegland (8.3m, DIF) is the near-identical alternative for 1.2m less: 6.90 this week and 18.30 over [H]ELF → [A]HAM → [A]BRO, with a more balanced 0.37 goals and 0.41 assists profile and the better points-per-million at 0.83. His Gameweek 22 fixture is the better of the two – Elfsborg are 17% to win at Djurgården – but his middle week is the trip to Hammarby, so his program is front-loaded where the leader’s is not.

Victor Lind (10.9m, HAM) is the Hammarby route into that best-in-league program – [A]DEG → [H]DIF → [A]HAL – with 6.30 this week, 17.00 over three, and the flattest trajectory of any premium at 6.3 → 5.3 → 5.4. He is the buy-and-forget option of the three. The differential version of the same idea is Montader Madjed (8.9m, HAM), on only 7.3% ownership – 15.60 over the identical [A]DEG → [H]DIF → [A]HAL run, 0.36 expected goals a game, and a 46% share of penalties. Two million cheaper for most of the output, in the same fixtures.

Tobias Heintz (9.9m, GOT) is the clearest example this week of why the round and the program disagree. He is only fifth among midfielders this Gameweek on 5.20 at Brommapojkarna, but his 16.00 over three is fourth among midfielders because of a 7.2 spike in Gameweek 23 – the highest single-round projection any player in the game has over the next three weeks – when IFK Göteborg host Västerås SK. [A]BRO → [H]VAS → [A]AIK is a buy made this week for a payoff next week; leave it a Gameweek and you pay the same price for two-thirds of the run.

Two more worth listing. Sead Haksabanovic (9.8m, MAL) has the most consistent program in the position – 4.9 → 5.1 → 5.0 across [A]VAS → [H]KAL → [H]HAE for 15.00 total, with 89 projected minutes a game and no dip to plan around. And the budget midfielder is Frank Junior Adjei (5.8m, HAM): 4.90 this week, 13.00 over three inside the [A]DEG → [H]DIF → [A]HAL program, 0.84 points per million, and 0.9% ownership. The minutes risk is real at 74 projected, which is exactly why he is that cheap and that unowned.

Forwards for Gameweek 22

Paulos Abraham (10.7m, HAM) leads the position on both horizons – 5.80 this week, 15.70 over [A]DEG → [H]DIF → [A]HAL – and his 0.60 expected goals per game is matched only by the top midfielder on the board. At 42% owned he is close to template, and the reason to hold rather than rotate is that his floor never drops below 4.9 in the window.

Kristian Lien (10.1m, DIF) is the alternative at a similar price: 5.20 this week, 13.70 over [H]ELF → [A]HAM → [A]BRO, 0.58 expected goals a game and a 92% penalty share. The gap between the two is almost entirely the middle fixture – one gets Djurgården at home in Gameweek 23, the other travels to Hammarby – so if you can only own one, the Hammarby program is worth the extra 0.6m.

The forward differential is Adrian Svanbäck (7.9m, HAE), owned by 6.6% of managers. His Gameweek 22 number of 3.90 at Kalmar FF is unremarkable, but the program is the argument: 13.30 over [A]KAL → [H]ÖRG → [A]MAL, with a 5.7 projection in Gameweek 23 that is third-highest in the entire game that week. Gustav Lindgren (8.0m, HAE) is the more-owned team-mate at 13% and 12.40 over the same [A]KAL → [H]ÖRG → [A]MAL run. Either way, the reason to buy a Häcken attacker this week is Gameweek 23, and you should say so to yourself when you make the move rather than judging it on Saturday.

Jacob Bergström (6.2m, MJA) is the budget striker: 11.50 over [H]GAI → [H]DEG → [A]VAS, 0.34 expected goals a game and a 93% penalty share, with two home games in the first two rounds of the window. Mjällby are only eighth on three-round expected goals, so this is a minutes-and-penalties pick rather than a fixture pick – but it is a cheap one that holds for the whole window.

Captain picks for Gameweek 22

The captain scores double in Allsvenskan Fantasy, so the armband is worth more than any single transfer this week.

1. Isak Bjerkebo (9.5m, SIR) – 7.00 projected, the highest in the game. Sirius are 63% to win at Örgryte, he takes the penalties, and his 0.60 expected goals a game is the highest of any captain candidate. The safest ceiling on the board.
2. Bo Åsulv Hegland (8.3m, DIF) – 6.90 projected, effectively level, against an Elfsborg side given a 17% win probability. If you own both, this is a coin-flip rather than a decision.
3. Victor Lind (10.9m, HAM) – 6.30 projected in the softest fixture of the round, with Hammarby on a 73% win probability and a 46% clean-sheet chance at Degerfors. The lower-variance armband of the three.

Plan the next two now, because it changes which premium you buy. Gameweek 23’s best armband is Tobias Heintz at 7.2 when IFK Göteborg host Västerås SK, with Adrian Svanbäck (5.7) behind him. Gameweek 24 swings back to Isak Bjerkebo at 6.5 for the home game with Elfsborg, with Bo Åsulv Hegland on 6.3. In other words, owning the Gameweek 22 captain covers two of the next three captaincies on his own – that, not this week’s single number, is the case for paying 9.5m.

Who to sell before Gameweek 22

Nahir Besara (13.2m, HAM) is the clearest sale in the game, and the round to do it is this one. He is the most expensive midfielder in Allsvenskan Fantasy and 30% of managers own him, but the model has him at 22 projected minutes and 2.00 points – his three-round total across [A]DEG → [H]DIF → [A]HAL is 6.60, which is less than a 5.2m goalkeeper returns. The why-now is that the fixtures are the reason to act: Hammarby have the best program in the league and you are holding the one asset in it that is not playing. Every Gameweek you wait is a Gameweek of that run spent on the bench.

Herman Magnusson (4.5m, VAS) is the same problem at the other end of the price list. 30% ownership, 15 projected minutes, 0.90 points this week and 5.00 over three across [H]MAL → [A]GOT → [H]MJA. He is cheap enough that many squads have simply forgotten about him, which is exactly why the sale is worth making now rather than drifting – a non-playing defender in a bottom-five program is a wasted slot for the rest of the run-in, not just for Saturday.

Victor Eriksson (6.4m, HAM) is the third: 18% owned, 33 projected minutes, and just 5.80 over [A]DEG → [H]DIF → [A]HAL. The awkward part is that he sits in the best program in the league, so the instinct is to hold and hope the minutes come back. The why-now is that you do not have to choose between the program and the minutes – Hampus Skoglund and Frederik Winther give you the same Hammarby clean sheets at 14.10 and 13.60 over the next three, and the club cap means this slot is one of theirs.

One player not to sell: Niklas Hult (6.1m, ELF). 33% of managers own him and his Gameweek 22 projection of 2.90 at Djurgården is genuinely poor – Elfsborg are given a 13% clean-sheet chance. But he plays 87 minutes, his [A]DIF → [H]HAL → [A]SIR program turns in Gameweek 23 where the home game with Halmstads BK is worth 5.3 on its own, and his three-round total of 11.00 is respectable. You can wait a round on this one, and selling into the bad week to buy back into the good one is the most expensive version of being right.

Gameweek 22 transfer summary

If you are making one move, the highest-value version is a non-playing premium out and a Hammarby or Sirius asset in – Victor Lind, Montader Madjed, Hampus Skoglund or Isak Bjerkebo, all of whom come with three fixtures rather than one. If your squad is already stocked with those, the forward-looking move is a Häcken or IFK Göteborg attacker (Adrian Svanbäck or Tobias Heintz) bought a week before their Gameweek 23 spike rather than during it. Check the confirmed teams on the Allsvenskan Fantasy predicted lineups before the deadline, compare the full pool on player picks, and see what a clean squad looks like on optimal teams for Allsvenskan Fantasy. Match odds and clean-sheet probabilities for every Gameweek 22 fixture are on the market probabilities page, and more rounds are collected in our Allsvenskan Fantasy preview hub.

FAQ

Who should I captain in Allsvenskan Fantasy Gameweek 22?

Isak Bjerkebo is the pick at 7.00 projected points, the highest in the game for Gameweek 22. Sirius are 63% to win at Örgryte, he takes their penalties, and he also has the best Gameweek 24 projection in the game at 6.5. Bo Åsulv Hegland (6.90) and Victor Lind (6.30) are the alternatives.

Should I sell Nahir Besara before Gameweek 22?

Yes. He is projected for 22 minutes and 2.00 points this Gameweek, and 6.60 across the next three, despite Hammarby owning the best three-round program in the league. He is the most expensive midfielder in the game and 30% of managers still hold him.

Which budget defenders are best for Gameweek 22?

Henrik Castegren at 4.9m is the best floor-and-value combination, with 12.30 projected over [A]ÖRG → [A]GAI → [H]ELF. Oliver Zandén at 5.0m is the differential version at 4.5% ownership, bought for near-90-minute involvement rather than clean sheets.

Best differentials for Allsvenskan Fantasy Gameweek 22?

Montader Madjed (8.9m, 7.3% owned) gives you the Hammarby program two million cheaper than the premium version, with 15.60 over three. Adrian Svanbäck (7.9m, 6.6%) and Viktor Andersson (4.8m, 0.9%) are the other two under 10% ownership with top-ten three-round totals.

Does anyone blank in Allsvenskan Fantasy Gameweek 22?

No. All 16 clubs have a fixture in Gameweek 22, played between Friday and Sunday, so no team blanks and every squad slot is live. Kick-off times are on the schedule page.

This preview was written by TheFantasyTool AI.