Allsvenskan Fantasy Gameweek 21: best buys and captains

Allsvenskan Fantasy Gameweek 21 preview: best buys, captain picks and differentials

Gameweek 21 of Allsvenskan Fantasy is not a normal round. Nine fixtures are scheduled between 11 and 16 September, because AIK and Mjallby both play twice - AIK at home on both occasions, Mjallby away on both. That single fact reshapes the whole gameweek, and it decides which of your 15 squad spots are worth spending a transfer on before the 17:55 deadline on 11 September.

The obvious part is easy: AIK assets score twice. The part that actually decides your rank is which AIK players you pick when you can only own three of them, which cheap doubles are worth the transfer, and which popular names you should be moving off before their programme collapses. That is what this preview covers.

Gameweek 21 fixtures: where the points are

AIK host Vasteras SK on 12 September and then Mjallby on 16 September. Neither is a gimme - the model has AIK at 44.2% and 44.9% win probability - but two home games against two of the league's lower-scoring sides is a lot of exposure for one squad slot. Combined clean-sheet probability across the double is 60%, and AIK's expected goals total 3.09 over the two matches.

Mjallby's double is a very different proposition: away at Hacken on 11 September and away at AIK on 16 September. Clean sheets are 10.4% and 22.4% respectively, so this is a volume play on attackers and appearance points, not a defensive one.

Among the single-fixture teams, four stand out.

IFK Goteborg's 42.7% is the highest single-match clean-sheet probability of the round, and it is easy to see why: Halmstad have the worst defence and one of the three lowest-scoring attacks in Allsvenskan this season, conceding 1.93 expected goals per game and managing only two clean sheets in 20 matches. Hacken also host Mjallby with a 61.3% win probability, which is worth knowing before you sell a Hacken attacker.

The teams to avoid are Orgryte (11.8% win probability at Malmo), Halmstad (17.0% away at IFK), Brommapojkarna (15.5% at Hammarby), Degerfors (14.4% at Sirius) and Kalmar (20.7% at Elfsborg). You can check every number yourself on the Allsvenskan Fantasy market probabilities page, and the full calendar including the midweek AIK-Mjallby fixture is on the Allsvenskan Fantasy schedule.

Goalkeepers for Gameweek 21

Kristoffer Nordfeldt (5.5m, AIK) is the highest projected scorer in the entire gameweek at 8.5 xP, from any position. Two home games, a combined 60% clean-sheet probability and 5.2 expected saves is a rare combination for a keeper priced under 6.0m, and he is owned by only 16.8% of managers. His weighted score over the next six gameweeks is 19.9 - the best of any goalkeeper in the game - and at 1.55 points per million this round, he is the most efficient asset on the board.

Sebastian Hansen (5.0m, Mjallby) is the differential version of the same idea, and he is owned by 0.1% of the game. Two away games at Hacken and AIK will not produce many clean sheets, but they will produce saves: the model has him at 7.4 expected saves across the double, and 7.6 xP. If you want the double gameweek without touching an AIK slot, this is the cheapest way in.

If you would rather not spend a transfer on a keeper at all, Viktor Andersson (4.8m, IFK Goteborg) is the value single-game pick at 5.0 xP - the 42.7% clean sheet against Halmstad is the best in the round, and 0.8% ownership makes him a genuine differential. Compare him with Warner Hahn (6.1m, 27.1% owned, 4.6 xP), who costs 1.3m more for half a point less this week.

Defenders: the AIK block, and one 4.4m gem

Herve Matthys (5.5m, AIK) is the best defender in Gameweek 21 at 7.1 xP, 1.4 points clear of the next name. He is owned by 1.9%. Two home games, a 54% cumulative clean-sheet probability and one of the heaviest defensive workloads in the league - the model projects 20.9 clearances, blocks, interceptions and tackles across the double - give him a floor that does not depend on a shutout arriving.

Wilmer Olofsson (4.4m, AIK) is the budget pick of the entire gameweek. At 5.7 xP he matches defenders costing 30% more, he carries 19.3 projected defensive actions over the two games, and he is owned by 0.4% of managers. That is 1.30 points per million, the best ratio of any outfielder in the round. If you need to free up cash to bring in a premium elsewhere, this is where you find it.

Tom Pettersson (5.7m, Mjallby) also returns 5.7 xP on the back of two matches and 18.2 projected defensive actions, and at 11.6% ownership he is far less template than his numbers suggest. Among single-game defenders, August Erlingmark (5.3m, IFK Goteborg) at 4.9 xP and Tobias Anker (5.2m, Sirius) at 4.8 xP are the two best fixture-led options, both attached to the round's strongest clean-sheet spots.

Remember the three-per-club cap. If you take Nordfeldt and Matthys you have one AIK slot left, and it should go to an attacker - see below. The Allsvenskan Fantasy optimal teams solver works the club cap and your budget out for you in real time.

Midfielders: Hove takes the penalties

Johan Hove (7.1m, AIK) is the best midfield option at 6.6 xP, and the reason is not just the double. He takes AIK's penalties with a 92% share, has five goals from 3.84 expected goals this season, and is projected for 12.2 defensive actions on top of that. At 7.5% ownership he is a differential route into the double gameweek that also carries the round's most valuable set-piece role.

Sead Haksabanovic (9.9m, Malmo FF) is the best single-fixture midfielder at 6.1 xP, with Orgryte at home the softest attacking fixture of the week. He has four goals and six assists this season at 0.45 expected goal involvements per 90, and only 12.9% of managers own him.

Victor Lind (10.8m, Hammarby) is the hold-through pick rather than the one-week pick: 5.9 xP this round, and the highest weighted six-gameweek score of any midfielder at 18.8. Eight goals and nine assists at 0.69 expected goal involvements per 90 for the league's best team by non-penalty expected goal difference (plus 1.08 per game) is a profile that does not need a favourable fixture.

Two cheap names deserve the space more than another premium does. Jesper Gustavsson (4.5m, Mjallby) returns 5.3 xP - more than midfielders at double his price - almost entirely from 169 projected minutes and 19.9 defensive actions across the double. He is 4.6% owned and 1.18 points per million. And Frank Junior Adjei (5.8m, Hammarby) at 5.0 xP is the differential nobody has: 0.8% ownership, 0.59 expected goal involvements per 90 this season, and the Brommapojkarna home fixture. Abdihakin Ali (4.8m, AIK) at 4.7 xP and 0.2% ownership is the third cheap double-gameweek route if your AIK slots are already spoken for elsewhere.

Forwards: Carlstrand is the buy of the week

Linus Carlstrand (7.3m, AIK) at 7.9 xP is the highest-projected outfield player in Gameweek 21 and the clearest buy in the game. He has five goals and an assist in 314 minutes this season from 3.12 expected goals - a 0.92 expected goal involvement per 90 that leads every forward in Allsvenskan - and he now gets two home matches with Ibrahim Cisse unavailable until 17 September. Ownership is 14.3%.

Kevin Filling (6.3m, AIK) is the cheaper version at 6.7 xP and 4.0% ownership, with 0.49 projected goals and 0.21 assists over the double. If you want two AIK attackers rather than a keeper, Carlstrand plus Filling costs 13.6m and projects 14.6 points.

Jacob Bergstrom (6.2m, Mjallby) at 6.1 xP is the best value forward outside AIK. He takes Mjallby's penalties with a 92% share, has seven goals from 6.32 expected goals, and 165 projected minutes across two matches. The fixtures are hard, but penalties travel.

Among single-game forwards, Paulos Abraham (10.7m, Hammarby) at 5.3 xP and Kristian Lien (10.0m, Djurgarden) at 5.3 xP are the two premium holds. Abraham has 12 goals from 11.34 expected goals; Lien has 14 goals and takes Djurgarden's penalties. Neither is a sell - but neither is a captain this week either.

Captain picks for Gameweek 21

Linus Carlstrand is the captain. At 7.9 xP he is the highest-projected outfield player of the round, he plays twice at home, and his 0.85 projected goals across the double is the best attacking number in the gameweek. Two bites at a return is exactly what you want from an armband.

The highest raw projection of the entire round actually belongs to Nordfeldt at 8.5 xP, and if you own him he is the safest floor on the board - but a goalkeeper's ceiling is capped by saves and clean sheets, so doubling it is worth less than it looks.

Johan Hove (6.6 xP) is the second option, and the penalty share is what separates him from the rest of the midfield. Sead Haksabanovic (6.1 xP) is the third, and the only single-game captain worth the risk given Malmo's 69.9% win probability at home to Orgryte. Kevin Filling at 6.7 xP is a defensible fourth if you own him and not Carlstrand.

Who to sell before Gameweek 21

Nahir Besara (13.2m, Hammarby) is the clearest sell in the game. He is the most expensive midfielder in Allsvenskan Fantasy, 30.5% of managers own him, and the model projects 20 minutes and 1.9 xP. That is 13.2m locked into a bench-level return, in a week where 4.4m buys you 5.7 xP.

Charlie Rosenqvist (5.5m, Djurgarden) is the same problem lower down: 17.1% ownership, 10 projected minutes, 0.6 xP. Ludvig Arvidsson (4.2m, Halmstads BK) at 15.4% ownership and 1.8 xP is a third - Halmstad travel to IFK Goteborg as 17.0% underdogs. Mohamed Soumah (5.4m, Sirius) at 15.2% ownership projects only 42 minutes and 2.3 xP despite the excellent Degerfors fixture.

One popular defender is worth a harder look: Herman Magnusson (4.5m, Vasteras SK) is owned by 30.7% and returns 3.6 xP away at AIK, with a 20.4% clean-sheet probability behind a side that has a minus-0.40 non-penalty expected goal difference per game. He is not a disaster, but he is the cheapest place to find the funds for Olofsson or Gustavsson.

Planning past Gameweek 21

The AIK block is a one-to-two round play and you should treat it that way. Carlstrand runs 7.9 to 3.4 to 3.3 to 3.1 across Gameweeks 21 to 24; Matthys runs 7.1 to 3.7 to 3.2 to 3.3. The double is where the value is, and it does not repeat.

The assets to buy and keep are elsewhere. Bo Asulv Hegland (8.2m, Djurgarden) scores 5.4, 5.7, 4.2, 5.1 and 6.8 across Gameweeks 21 to 25 for a weighted total of 19.2 - the best of any outfielder in the game - with six goals and 13 assists behind it. Kristian Lien mirrors him almost exactly at 19.1. Victor Lind is on 18.8, and Nordfeldt leads everyone at 19.9, though most of that lead is the double itself.

If you are choosing between a one-week AIK punt and a six-week hold, the honest answer is that you can have both: sell the cheap double-gameweek defender again in Gameweek 22 and keep the premium. Track the projections round by round on the Allsvenskan Fantasy player picks page, and check team news on the Allsvenskan Fantasy predicted lineups before you confirm anything - AIK's rotation between two home games four days apart is the one risk this preview cannot price for you.

For the rest of the season's analysis, the Allsvenskan Fantasy preview hub collects every round. You can also read the Allsvenskan Fantasy Gameweek 20 preview and the Allsvenskan Fantasy Gameweek 19 preview to see how the run-in has been building, and the optimal teams solver will build a legal 15 around whichever of these picks you commit to.

FAQ

Who should I captain in Allsvenskan Fantasy Gameweek 21?

Linus Carlstrand (7.3m, AIK) is the captain for Gameweek 21 at 7.9 xP. He plays two home games in the double gameweek, has five goals in 314 minutes this season at 0.92 expected goal involvements per 90, and carries 0.85 projected goals across the round. Johan Hove is the second choice at 6.6 xP with a 92% penalty share, and Sead Haksabanovic is the best single-fixture option at 6.1 xP.

Which teams have a double gameweek in Allsvenskan Fantasy Gameweek 21?

AIK and Mjallby both play twice in Gameweek 21. AIK host Vasteras SK on 12 September and Mjallby on 16 September - two home games with a combined 60% clean-sheet probability. Mjallby travel to Hacken on 11 September and to AIK on 16 September, so their double is an attacking and appearance-points play rather than a defensive one.

Which budget defenders are best for Gameweek 21?

Wilmer Olofsson (4.4m, AIK) is the best budget defender at 5.7 xP, which is 1.30 points per million and the best ratio of any outfielder in the round. He is owned by 0.4% of managers and is projected for 19.3 defensive actions across the double gameweek. Tom Pettersson (5.7m, Mjallby) also returns 5.7 xP, and August Erlingmark (5.3m, IFK Goteborg) is the best single-fixture option at 4.9 xP behind the round's highest clean-sheet probability.

Should I sell Nahir Besara before Gameweek 21?

Yes. Besara is projected for 20 minutes and 1.9 xP in Gameweek 21 despite being the most expensive midfielder in the game at 13.2m, and 30.5% of managers still own him. Selling him funds two of the strongest picks of the round - Herve Matthys at 5.5m and 7.1 xP, or Johan Hove at 7.1m and 6.6 xP - with change left over.

Best differentials for Allsvenskan Fantasy Gameweek 21?

Sebastian Hansen (5.0m, Mjallby) is the standout differential at 7.6 xP and 0.1% ownership, driven by 7.4 expected saves across two away matches. Herve Matthys (5.5m, AIK) at 7.1 xP and 1.9% ownership is the best defensive differential, and Frank Junior Adjei (5.8m, Hammarby) at 5.0 xP and 0.8% ownership is the cheap midfield option, with 0.59 expected goal involvements per 90 this season.

This preview was written by TheFantasyTool AI - verified by Nicolai @ TheFantasyTool