Allsvenskan Fantasy Gameweek 20: captains and best buys
Allsvenskan Fantasy Gameweek 20 preview: best buys, captain picks and differentials
Allsvenskan Fantasy Gameweek 20 is a clean single gameweek - all 16 clubs play once, spread across Friday 5 September to Monday 7 September. Hammarby travel to the league's leakiest defence and once again top almost every column of the model, and everybody already knows that. What decides your rank is the six or seven squad spots after the template picks, and this round the model points them at three places: Malmö FF's suddenly-inviting home fixture, Hammarby's non-premium midfielders, and Degerfors' cheap back line.
There is also a deadline behind the deadline. Gameweek 21 is a double gameweek for AIK and for Mjällby, and nobody else. Plan your free transfer with that in mind, because the last third of this article is about not spending it on the wrong player.
Gameweek 20 fixtures that matter
Four fixtures carry the round. The numbers below are the model's own win probability, expected goals and clean-sheet chance for each side - you can pull the rest of the round from the Allsvenskan Fantasy schedule and the underlying bookmaker numbers from the market probabilities page.
| Team | Fixture | Win% | Expected goals | Clean sheet% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hammarby | [A]Örgryte | 77% | 2.85 | 42% |
| Örgryte | [H]Hammarby | 8% | 0.88 | 6% |
| Djurgården | [A]Kalmar FF | 58% | 2.00 | 34% |
| Kalmar FF | [H]Djurgården | 19% | 1.08 | 14% |
| Malmö FF | [H]AIK | 56% | 2.06 | 29% |
| AIK | [A]Malmö FF | 22% | 1.23 | 13% |
| Degerfors | [H]Halmstads BK | 49% | 1.58 | 35% |
| Halmstads BK | [A]Degerfors | 24% | 1.04 | 21% |
Örgryte - Hammarby is the fixture of the round in every sense. Hammarby are the best team in the league on the underlying numbers this season - 2.17 xG per game, 1.09 xG conceded, 8 clean sheets in 19 games and 44 goals scored - while Örgryte concede 1.87 xG per game and have shipped 42 goals, the worst mark in the division. A 77% win probability alongside a 42% clean-sheet chance is the rare fixture where you can attack and defend from the same club.
The fixture that has moved most is Malmö FF - AIK. Malmö are now a 56% home favourite with 2.06 expected goals, and AIK arrive with the second-worst defence in the league at 1.55 xG conceded per game. That single fixture is why the best midfield buy in the game this week is not a Hammarby player.
The quiet one is Degerfors - Halmstads BK. Degerfors have kept only 2 clean sheets in 19 games, so a 35% shutout chance looks generous until you see who they are playing: Halmstad have scored 13 goals all season and generate 1.06 xG per game. This is a fixture-driven, one-round buy, and the prices make it work.
Goalkeepers: the premium and the 4.5m route
Warner Hahn (6.1m, Hammarby) is the premium goalkeeper and the round's best single shutout bet at 4.90 xP on a 42% clean-sheet chance. Hammarby have the meanest defence in the league at 1.09 xG conceded per game, and Örgryte's 0.88 expected goals is the lowest total any attack posts this round. He is owned by 27.4% of managers, so this is a floor pick rather than a differential.
The value route is Matvei Igonen (4.5m, Degerfors) at 4.60 xP - a points-per-million of 1.02, the best of any goalkeeper in the round. He gives up only 0.30 xP against Hahn while freeing 1.6m for the outfield. If you would rather own a keeper who holds up beyond this week, Viktor Andersson (4.8m, IFK Göteborg) is the one nobody has: 4.00 xP now, 5.00 in Gameweek 21 at home to Halmstad, and a six-round decay-weighted score of 15.54 at 0.7% ownership.
Do not buy Kristoffer Nordfeldt yet. He is the best goalkeeper in the game over the horizon, but for reasons covered in the Gameweek 21 section below.
Defenders: Hammarby's back line and three cheap Degerfors shirts
Hampus Skoglund (6.7m, Hammarby) is the best defender in the round at 5.50 xP and 0.82 points per million. He is an attacking full-back in a 42% clean-sheet fixture - 3.34 xA this season from defence, which is why his projection sits above every other back-four player in the game. Pairing him with Hahn is the correlated stack this round genuinely supports: one clean sheet pays both.
The differential version of the same idea is Noah Persson (7.4m, Hammarby) at 5.20 xP and just 2.5% ownership - a near-identical fixture profile to Skoglund for a fraction of the ownership. Frederik Winther (6.6m, Hammarby) at 5.10 xP is the third route in, and is the safest of the three on minutes.
The budget play is Degerfors at home to the league's weakest attack. Ahmad Faqa (4.3m) projects 4.60 xP for a points-per-million of 1.07 - the best figure of any outfield player in Gameweek 20 - and is owned by 0.2% of managers. Nikolai Skuseth (4.5m) at 4.40 xP is effectively unowned, and Samba Diatara (4.5m) at 4.10 xP is the third. Be honest about what these are: Degerfors have the worst attack in the league at 0.90 xG per game and 2 clean sheets in 19, so this is a one-fixture rental, not an investment. Their Gameweek 21 trip to Sirius drops Faqa's projection sharply.
One more worth naming: Busanello (7.3m, Malmö FF) at 4.70 xP and 2.8% ownership rides the improved home fixture and holds a 4.70 projection into Gameweek 21 against Örgryte.
Midfielders: the premium argument has changed
Sead Haksabanovic (9.9m, Malmö FF) is the best midfield buy in the game right now. He projects 6.80 xP for Gameweek 20, second only to Victor Lind, and his six-round decay-weighted score of 23.13 is the highest of any player in Allsvenskan Fantasy - a clear margin over Lind's 20.44. His trajectory reads 6.8 → 7.4 → 5.9 → 6.2 → 5.9 → 4.7, so unlike the Hammarby premiums he does not fall away after this week. He also now carries a 43% share of Malmö's penalties alongside Erik Botheim's 50%, which lifts his ceiling further. At 14.0% ownership he is both the best pick and a differential, which is a rare combination.
Victor Lind (10.8m, Hammarby) remains the highest single-round projection in the game at 6.90 xP. He has 8 goals and 9 assists this season at 0.69 xGI per 90 and plays the round's softest fixture. He is the safe premium; Haksabanovic is the better one to hold.
The standout differential is Montader Madjed (8.9m, Hammarby) - 6.40 xP, level with Paulos Abraham, at 7.3% ownership and 1.9m cheaper than Lind. He has taken over as Hammarby's primary penalty taker with a 54% share, ahead of everyone else at the club, and posts 3.65 xG and 3.62 xA this season. You can check the full order on the Allsvenskan penalty takers page.
The cheap slot has a genuine hidden gem. Francis Junior Adjei (5.8m, Hammarby) projects 5.20 xP for a points-per-million of 0.90, the best of any midfielder in the round, at 0.5% ownership - and his 0.59 xGI per 90 this season backs it up. The caveat is honest: his starter factor is 0.80 and the model gives him 67 minutes rather than a full game, so he is the highest-variance pick in this article. Check the predicted lineups before the deadline. If you want the same price bracket without the rotation risk, Marcus Lindberg (5.7m, Sirius) at 4.20 xP and Markus Karlsson (5.3m, Hammarby) at 4.20 xP both start every week.
Forwards
Paulos Abraham (10.6m, Hammarby) at 6.40 xP is the round's best striker and the one most managers already own at 39.6%. His 11.34 xG this season is the highest in the league and he has 12 goals to go with it, so the finishing is matching the chances. In the softest fixture available, he is a hold rather than a decision.
Kristian Lien (10.0m, Djurgården) at 5.10 xP is the alternative premium, and he takes 92% of Djurgården's penalties. Djurgården are third in the league on net expected-goal difference at +0.77 with 8 clean sheets, and their Kalmar trip carries a 58% win probability.
The value forward is Dijan Vukojevic (6.1m, Degerfors) at 4.50 xP and 5.5% ownership - the only Degerfors attacker the model trusts in the home fixture, at 0.34 xGI per 90. Below that the position thins out quickly, and there is no point manufacturing a fourth recommendation: if your budget is tight, take the saving in attack and spend it on Haksabanovic.
Captain picks for Allsvenskan Fantasy Gameweek 20
Victor Lind is the captain. He holds the highest projection in the game at 6.90 xP, and the reason is the fixture: Hammarby at Örgryte is a 77% win probability with 2.85 expected goals against the division's worst defence. Nothing else this round combines a top-three projection with a fixture that lopsided.
Sead Haksabanovic (6.80 xP) is a genuinely close second and the differential armband at 14.0% ownership - Malmö at home to a defence conceding 1.55 xG per game, with a 43% penalty share behind it. Paulos Abraham (6.40 xP) is the third option and the higher-ceiling one if you would rather captain a striker in the same Hammarby fixture; Montader Madjed matches him at 6.40 xP for 1.7m less.
Worth thinking one round ahead: in Gameweek 21 the best captain option in the game is Haksabanovic again at 7.40 xP, ahead of every Hammarby asset. That is the argument for buying him now rather than next week.
Hidden gems and differentials for Gameweek 20
The template is Lind, Abraham, Bjerkebo and Hegland. Owning them protects your rank; it does not improve it. These are the picks that do, all of them predicted starters:
| Player | Price | Ownership | Gameweek 20 xP | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montader Madjed (MID, Hammarby) | 8.9m | 7.3% | 6.40 | Primary penalty taker, same fixture as Lind |
| Francis Junior Adjei (MID, Hammarby) | 5.8m | 0.5% | 5.20 | 0.90 points per million, 0.59 xGI/90 |
| Noah Persson (DEF, Hammarby) | 7.4m | 2.5% | 5.20 | Skoglund's fixture at a fraction of the ownership |
| Ahmad Faqa (DEF, Degerfors) | 4.3m | 0.2% | 4.60 | Best points-per-million in the round at 1.07 |
| Busanello (DEF, Malmö FF) | 7.3m | 2.8% | 4.70 | Holds 4.70 into Gameweek 21 as well |
| Viktor Andersson (GK, IFK Göteborg) | 4.8m | 0.7% | 4.00 | 15.54 weighted score over six rounds |
Differentials win leagues and the template protects rank, so treat these as calculated risks with the ownership shown, not as replacements for your entire spine. Full ownership and projection data for every player is on the Allsvenskan Fantasy player picks page, with the season-long numbers on player data.
Who to sell before Gameweek 20
Nahir Besara (13.2m, Hammarby) is the clearest sell in the game. He is the most expensive midfielder in Allsvenskan Fantasy and 31.1% of managers still own him, but the model has him on 18 minutes and 1.80 xP for Gameweek 20 - he is no longer in the starting side. Montader Madjed plays the same fixture, projects 6.40 xP, and costs 4.3m less. This is the transfer that funds everything else in this article.
Charlie Rosenqvist (5.5m, Djurgården) is the other one. He is 20.3% owned and projects 0.80 xP on 16 minutes - a bench player in a good fixture is still a bench player. Mohamed Soumah (5.4m, Sirius) at 17.8% ownership has slipped to a 0.51 starter factor and 2.40 xP, so the Sirius defensive slot is better filled by Tim Anker (5.2m, 4.20 xP) if you want to stay in that team.
Two more high-ownership names in poor fixtures: Herman Magnusson (4.5m, Västerås SK) is 30.8% owned but projects 3.30 xP at home to Sirius, and Ludvig Arvidsson (4.2m, Halmstads BK) is 14.8% owned on 0.40 xP. Neither is a disaster to hold if your free transfer is committed elsewhere, but neither should survive a wildcard.
Best one-round squad for Gameweek 20 (Loan Rangers)
Loan Rangers gives you unlimited transfers for one gameweek and lifts the three-per-club restriction, which makes Gameweek 20 an unusually good week to consider it: the round's best fixture belongs to the league's best team, and normally you can only take three of them. This XI is built to maximise Gameweek 20 alone within the solver's spending ceiling, in a 4-5-1:
- GK: Warner Hahn (6.1m, Hammarby) - 4.90 xP
- DEF: Hampus Skoglund (6.7m) 5.50, Noah Persson (7.4m) 5.20, Frederik Winther (6.6m) 5.10 - all Hammarby - and Ahmad Faqa (4.3m, Degerfors) 4.60
- MID: Victor Lind (10.8m) 6.90, Sead Haksabanovic (9.9m, Malmö FF) 6.80, Montader Madjed (8.9m) 6.40, Bard Åge Hegland (8.2m, Djurgården) 5.30, Francis Junior Adjei (5.8m) 5.20
- FWD: Paulos Abraham (10.6m, Hammarby) - 6.40 xP
- Captain: Victor Lind
That is seven Hammarby players, which is only legal under the chip. The XI totals 62.30 projected points before the armband and 69.20 with Lind captained, and the full 15-man squad comes to 101.4m, just inside the solver's spending ceiling. Before committing a chip, run the exact optimum yourself - the site solves it live against current prices on the optimal teams page, and the chip strategy tool will tell you whether Gameweek 20 or the Gameweek 21 double is the better week to play it.
Planning ahead: Gameweek 21 is a double for AIK and Mjällby
Only two clubs play twice in Gameweek 21. AIK host Västerås SK and then Mjällby; Mjällby travel to Häcken and then to AIK. That produces the biggest single-round projections of the next six weeks:
| Player | Price | Gameweek 20 xP | Gameweek 21 xP |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kristoffer Nordfeldt (GK, AIK) | 5.5m | 3.50 | 9.20 |
| Linus Carlstrand (FWD, AIK) | 7.2m | 3.60 | 8.90 |
| Hervé Matthys (DEF, AIK) | 5.5m | 2.70 | 8.40 |
| Robin Wallinder (GK, Mjällby) | 6.0m | 4.40 | 7.90 |
| Jacob Hove (MID, AIK) | 7.1m | 3.00 | 7.50 |
| Jesper Bergström (FWD, Mjällby) | 6.2m | 3.70 | 6.30 |
The timing matters. AIK's Gameweek 20 trip to Malmö is the worst fixture on the board - a 22% win probability and a 13% clean-sheet chance - so buying these players this week means paying for one bad round to reach a good one. Make it next week's transfer, not this week's. The exception is Linus Carlstrand, who has 5 goals from 3.12 xG in his first 4 appearances at 0.92 xGI per 90 and only 9.9% ownership - if you want him before the price rises, the double is your reason.
Summary
- Captain: Victor Lind (6.90 xP). Haksabanovic and Abraham are the alternatives.
- Best buy: Sead Haksabanovic (9.9m) - top projection over six rounds at 23.13, only 14.0% owned.
- Best differential: Montader Madjed (8.9m, 7.3%) - 6.40 xP and Hammarby's penalties.
- Best budget pick: Ahmad Faqa (4.3m) - 1.07 points per million, a one-round Degerfors rental.
- Sell: Nahir Besara (13.2m, 31.1% owned, 1.80 xP) - he is not starting.
- Plan: AIK and Mjällby double in Gameweek 21. Buy them next week, not this one.
More rounds of analysis in our Allsvenskan Fantasy preview hub, including the Gameweek 19 preview, and the strategy explainers in our fantasy football guides.
FAQ
Who should I captain in Allsvenskan Fantasy Gameweek 20?
Victor Lind. He carries the highest projection in the game at 6.90 xP for the round, and Hammarby travel to Örgryte with a 77% win probability, 2.85 expected goals and a 42% clean-sheet chance against the league's worst defence. Lind has 8 goals and 9 assists this season at 0.69 xGI per 90. Sead Haksabanovic (6.80 xP) is the differential armband at 14.0% ownership, and Paulos Abraham (6.40 xP) is the same fixture with a striker's ceiling.
Which budget players are best for Allsvenskan Fantasy Gameweek 20?
Ahmad Faqa at 4.3m is the best value pick in the round - 4.60 xP for a points-per-million of 1.07, the highest of any outfield player, and he is owned by just 0.2% of managers as Degerfors host the league's weakest attack. Matvei Igonen (4.5m) is the best value goalkeeper at 4.60 xP, and in midfield Francis Junior Adjei (5.8m, Hammarby) projects 5.20 xP at 0.90 points per million, though his 67 projected minutes carry rotation risk.
What are the best differentials for Allsvenskan Fantasy Gameweek 20?
Montader Madjed (8.9m, Hammarby) is the standout - 6.40 xP for the round at only 7.3% ownership, and he now takes 54% of Hammarby's penalties. Sead Haksabanovic (9.9m, Malmö FF) is the differential premium at 14.0% ownership and the best player in the game over the next six rounds. In defence, Noah Persson (7.4m, Hammarby) at 5.20 xP and 2.5% ownership plays the same fixture as the heavily-owned Hammarby defenders.
Should I sell Nahir Besara in Allsvenskan Fantasy?
Yes. Besara is the most expensive midfielder in the game at 13.2m and 31.1% of managers still own him, but the model projects 18 minutes and 1.80 xP for Gameweek 20 - he is no longer in Hammarby's starting side. Montader Madjed plays the identical fixture, projects 6.40 xP, and costs 4.3m less, so the swap funds an upgrade elsewhere at the same time.
Which teams have a double gameweek in Allsvenskan Fantasy Gameweek 21?
AIK and Mjällby, and only those two. AIK host Västerås SK and then Mjällby; Mjällby play away at Häcken and then away at AIK. That pushes Kristoffer Nordfeldt to 9.20 xP, Linus Carlstrand to 8.90 and Robin Wallinder to 7.90 for Gameweek 21. AIK's Gameweek 20 trip to Malmö is a 22% win probability, so this is a transfer to make after Gameweek 20, not before it.
This preview was written by TheFantasyTool AI - verified by Nicolai @ TheFantasyTool